Road to Shipyard 4.

0:
The state of play, a brief history of maritime developments,
and a future roadmap
Focusing on the Baltic Sea and Shipyards

© Michal Mrozek

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RESEARCH REPORT 2020
 This report has been published by ECOPRODIGI Project.

www.ecoprodigi.eu

Authors:
Otto Lappalainen, University of Turku
Matthew J. Spaniol, MariTimeLine Consulting
Tapio Karvonen, University of Turku
Valdemar Ehlers, Danish Maritime
Jussi Karlsson, Machine Technology Center Turku Ltd.
Daniel Nåfors, Chalmers University of Technology
Aki Piiroinen, Machine Technology Center Turku Ltd.
Andrius Sutnikas, Klaipeda Science and Technology Park
Juha Valtanen, Machine Technology Center Turku Ltd.

This report was published on 09/11/2020.

The authors wish to thank Interreg Baltic Sea Region Programme and national funders for financing
ECOPRODIGI project as well as all the project partners and interviewees for their valuable contributions. The
content of this publication reflects the views of the authors, which do not necessarily reflect the views of the
funding organisations.

All rights reserved. We kindly ask you to respect copyrights and not to reproduce content without permission
from the authors.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ECOPRODIGI is an initiative of the EU-Interreg Baltic Sea Programme, whose mission is to
improve and promote the eco-efficiency of shipping and maritime operations. This report
is a product of the work package 4 (WP4); a foresight exercise, whose mandate is to
provide a roadmap for the future of maritime operations in the Baltic Sea Region with a
focus on shipbuilding and shipyard operations. A sister publication exists that provides a
policy-innovation roadmap for Ro-Ro shipping, entitled Maritime in the 21st century.

This report is a product of inter-disciplinary collaboration. At the core of the team are the
consortium members. Early drafts were validated through consultation with experts, and
results were then summarised and validated together with wider industry and policy actors
through surveys. For more information on the methodology, see Appendix 2.

The potential users of this roadmap include a wide variety of stakeholders. Policy makers
can use it as an agenda-setting reference for promoting and championing eco-efficient
policies, regulations, and standards. Industry stakeholders can use it to check against their
own strategies for coherence. Researchers can use it to anticipate questions that might
be of particular relevance over the next decade. Technology developers can use it to
benchmark against their own expectations for technology development. In all, this
roadmap can be a starting point for discussion so that all stakeholders can move together
into the future, forward, by sharing the expectations for development in order to
coordinate action to enact eco-efficiency in the Baltic Sea and beyond.

The report is organised as follows. The introduction will lay out the current state-of-play
of eco-efficiency and the zeitgeist of the current situation on maritime that we find
ourselves in, in 2020. The next section will provide some historical context looking back
to 2010 and 2000 to trace the trajectory and developmental course that we are on.

The core contribution of this report is the Shipyard 4.0 Roadmap, that can be found in
Figure 1 on page 9. This illustration plots the expectations for technological capabilities
and policy from 2020 to 2030. The descriptions of the elements of the roadmap are
provided in Appendix 1.

It should be acknowledged that the current COVID-19 pandemic has played a significant
role in societies during the development of this roadmap. Indeed, the injection of such
uncertainty has caused the authors of this report to reflect quite significantly. The
ECOPRODIGI consortium considers this of utmost concern and thus requests that users of
this roadmap take the status of the pandemic into consideration when using this roadmap.
As it had always been thought of as a working roadmap of the future since its beginning,
prudence is required in its use and it should be suggested that users create their own
updates and assessments in an ongoing fashion as the future unfolds.

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Introduction - the current state of play in
2020
By 2020, global maritime governance had become more effective than ever due to the
new and improving regulations and enforcement from EU, IMO, and other international
bodies. Industry, responding to the demand from consumers, had stepped up with the
announcement of new environmental imperatives to join the calls for de-carbonisation,
zero-emission, and the electrification of the seas. Green taxes, enabled through the
detailed emissions and energy consumption record keeping was affecting vessels,
shipyards, ports, and other elements of the ocean economies. Sustainable practices and
circular-economy thinking has received widespread attention, and demonstrated
results to this end were emerging, noticeably in the Baltic Sea region where clean
shipping was having a positive impact in mitigating the problems with eutrophication.

At the onset of 2020, the future vision of many industries had been a fully digitalised
and optimised one. Developments in AI, machine learning and machine vision have
made progress through their nascent stages of development in the decade prior. More
than ever, big data collected by the ever-increasing amount and kinds of sensors and
cameras had begun to be processed on remote servers. Special attention and sustained
investments were ensuring that the software and algorithms that had been developed
to process, manage, and visualise the data so that operators could effectively optimise
workflows.

The ongoing impact of digitalisation to maritime operations has been tremendous. Data-
based decision support systems have been available to the industry for some time. Now
these systems are beginning to suggest optimal sailing routes; performance and
monitoring systems are providing estimates for required maintenance and repairs;
decisions about hull and propeller maintenance, schedule design, retrofitting, and
more, are improving because they are being made on the basis of data. Ship operators
are optimising vessel stowage, reducing the use of ballast water, and improving on
vessel utilisation. Different kinds of fault detection and early-warning systems are being
implemented to avoid accidents and breakdowns.

Digital vessel performance monitoring is beginning to offer the opportunity for the
ship’s crew to navigate real-time in a more energy efficient manner using robust
decision support tools and models providing overview of most optimal sailing route and
speed and on-board equipment for monitoring the weather, current, wind, draft, cargo
loading conditions, and more. The advancement in software and simulation has
gradually made inroads towards the realisation of the grand vision for automated ships.

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The benefits of digitalisation are not confined to the ship, but rather spread across the
maritime value chain. Full digital data capture and AI models are enabling truly digital
and integrated logistics. Digital transparency about cargo unit positions, states, and
conditions, are enabling terminals to optimise cargo operations, gain efficiencies and
shorten port stays, providing ship operators with more opportunities to sail slower,
reduce fuel consumption, and provide better service quality to their customers. The
ports, ships and supply chain are increasingly integrated in multi-modal data platforms
that enhance the efficiencies of stowage and voyage planning and execution. Ship
location data are beginning to be translated into real-time arrival estimates allowing
ports to act and react on better information to lower time in port and increase time
sailing. This intensive use of real-time data throughout the supply chain opens up for
more secure and efficient coordination and planning of all operational links in the
chain, and contributes to the competitiveness of Ro-Ro shipping, especially in relation
to rubber wheel traffic / lorries on land, which continue to be a major contributor to
negative environmental impacts.

3D scanners and computer vision have the potential to make stowage operations more
efficient. Virtual reality and augmented reality technologies are providing process
perspectives never seen before. Increased data sophistication, transparency, and
management help to align incentives for improving cooperative performance, and giving
insight into the magnitude of the inefficiencies that are yet to be mitigated, or in other
words, the money left on the table and the unnecessary destruction to the environment.

The evolution of the maritime and related industries towards digitalisation has meant
that there are an increasing demand for different skillsets than before. The work that
could be removed from the crew and captains has being assigned to partially
autonomous systems at the benefit of increasing safety and decreasing human error. In
other words, captains and crew are being challenged by new technologies, and new
skills are required to be able to manage the technology effectively while also improving
the work environment and occupational health. The arrival of big data requires more
data analysts and improved data science architects. This, in turn, requires not only
requirements for new ways of learning and training, i.e. through simulation, but
effective and experienced managers and leaders are needed to see this transition
through. Special attention must therefore be placed on making the image of the
industry an attractive place to form a career.

In the midst of all this development, the continuance of these trends have been called
into question. Not only due to the corona virus, but also e.g. cyberattacks have
thwarted confidence in digitalisation: the quantity and magnitude of the attacks,
spoofing, cyber-terrorism, and ransom, are reaching a critical point. And much goes
unreported. To protect all sorts of assets, encryption technology and distributed ledgers
are being considered to play an increasing role here.

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The environmental agenda is also at stake. Initiatives from the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) - the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) have put
forward a series of measures aimed at reducing the total amount of greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions from ships in line with the UNFCC’s Paris Agreement and UN 2030
Agenda for Sustainable Development. By April 2018, the IMO adopted an initial strategy
to reduce annual GHG emissions by 50% by 2050 compared to the 2008 level. The
effectiveness of this will unfold over the next decade.

If the disruptions of 2020 are overcome, the techno-regulatory regimes continue in their
progress, and investments and policy can continue their trajectory, then the decade is
likely to become a decade of eco-efficiency. However, advancing industry standards
are needed in that standards organisations, classification societies, and industry
continue to push for the establishment of harmonised rules and communication to
unlock the value promised in an increasingly digital era.

Meyer Turku Shipyard (© Meyer Turku / Lavea Media)

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A brief history of the maritime industry in
the 21st century

Year 2000
Notwithstanding the dot com bubble burst in March of 2000, Europe was experiencing
a period of healthy territorial, economic, and technological growth at the onset of the
new millenium. Europe’s Ministerial Intergovernmental Conference on Accession
Negotiations with numerous Eastern European countries opened in January. Fuel prices
had been low for some time, and industrial output was high, with China’s entrance into
the WTO resulting in the dramatic expansion of trade to and from Southeast Asia.

Confidence in the maritime industry was strong, and both large and small companies
were succeeding. The demand for new vessels was high and the orderbooks at the
shipyards were full. The low fuel prices, coupled with high demand and freight rates,
meant profitable times for maritime transport.

Ships were getting bigger and faster. Prior to 2000, a large container ship could carry
around 4000 TEU, and capacity would soon expand to carry 7000-8000 TEU. Roll-on Roll-
off (Ro-Ro) vessels were also getting bigger and scheduling more frequent departures.
To pace the increasing demand driven by global GDP growth, vessel types were
diversifying: Demand for built-for-purpose vessels grew, with new mixed cargo, service,
passenger and work ships filling the orderbooks in European yards. Yards were not
making everything by themselves anymore, but outsourcing and sub-contracting
practices spread, with the establishment of local and global supply chain networks.
Shipbuilding had already evolved towards block construction that meant that not
everything - hulls included - had to be both built and assembled on the spot. Ship design
companies were internationalising and finding new markets globally. Yard orders were
booming in years 2004 to 2008 with a large number of newly built yards being opened
in Asia, and particularly in China. The delivery of main engines for propulsion of the
growing fleet became the bottleneck.

Globalisation was beginning to affect the ownership of the companies across many parts
of the value network - among maritime segments (i.e. container shipping and Ro-Ro),
ports, and yards. The industry was moving towards a duality of huge companies and
their smaller subcontractors.

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With increased resources, more standards, and access to global solutions, the
investment, development, and implementation of digital technologies in maritime and
related industries had expanded - albeit gradually. Internet connections were more
ubiquitous with the standardisation of Wi-Fi and growth of mobile telephony. Telefax
was widely used in maritime, as there were computers in the offices, but typically few
on board ships. The first web portals for tendering and purchase orders in the industry
were starting to open. Morse code was finally discontinued in maritime communication
in 1999.

In the year 2000, health, safety and environment (HSE) procedures were mostly already
developed, however the industry experienced more accidents relative to today. Tragic
accidents in the late 1980ies and early 1990ies lead to a series of new regulations that
would come into force around 2000, such as an update to the IMO’s Safety of Life at
Sea (SOLAS) and the International Safety Management (ISM) code. These mandated not
only new behaviours, such as checklist-based reporting procedures for monitoring and
reporting, but also the shift in paradigm from deterministic to probabilistic methods
and the further implementation of new technologies and stricter requirements for
them. After the accident of the M/S Estonia in the Baltic Sea with the loss of 852 lives,
new regulations resulted in safety retrofits for Ro-Ro vessels: new validation procedures
and calculations on aspects such as stability requirements, flood control doors,
watertight bulkheads, bow visors, ramp functionalities, video recording requirements,
alarm systems, and more, were brought about in the Stockholm convention. The impact
of new regulations had not been so great, arguably, since the Titanic, in the aftermath
of the regulations that followed in the wake of the M/S Estonia.

As ships were required to record what they were doing in much greater detail,
inspections were still conducted manually which left open the many possibilities for
human error. The idea of dual officers who are familiar with both navigating and
engineering was surfacing. Robots were becoming more common in manufacturing
processes that would foreshadow the later automation of the workforce in European
shipyards and ports. Yet the processing power of computers was making analysis more
of an automated process. The first flowmeters for monitoring fuel usage that would
revolutionise vessel performance management and optimisation, were being installed
on vessels. Ship design companies were progressing in the migration to integrated 3D
modelling software such as Computer-Aided Design (CAD). Likewise, improvements in
Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and materials were resulting in ships that could
sail faster without increasing fuel usage. Accident reconstruction techniques improved
as well that helped to further identify risks.

Consequences for human resources were also beginning to emerge. The idea of dual
officers who are familiar with both navigating and engineering was surfacing. Robots
were becoming more common in manufacturing processes that would foreshadow the

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 later automation of the workforce in European shipyards and ports. With the increasing
use of subcontractors, supply chain management tools had to be developed in order to
organise workflow efficiently.

Sustainability was not on the maritime agenda in the year 2000. Climate change was
recognised, but no efforts had been initiated to mitigate it in the shipping industry.
Other environmental issues, such as eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, were seen as more
urgent, and the effect of ship emissions on air pollution was recognised and efforts to
limit them began. The first Sulfur Oxides (SOx) regulations had been enforced in the
late 1990s, and environmental cooperation around the Baltic Sea Region countries was
increasing – in particular through the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). In Gothenburg,
the first shore-power electric connections were offered in order to decrease smog and
air pollution in the area. The first Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) was implemented
in Sweden in 2005, tightened and expanded in 2010, and then again in 2015.

Maritime Industry from 2010

2010 was characterised as a post-financial crisis pre-recovery low point for shipping and
shipbuilding. The financial crisis and the subsequent recession led to lower demand for
consumer goods and oil. Given that the largest container ships had quadrupled in size
to 16000 TEU since 2000, overcapacity was resulting in a decline in asset values. The
orderbooks for large vessels at European yards were empty, and what orders there were
for large cargo vessels were being taken by Asian shipyards.

An increasing environmental consciousness had resulted in international debate and a

series of political and regulatory actions that impacted the maritime industry. While
initiatives with the aim of reducing pollution from the world's merchant fleet date back
to at least 1973 when the first edition of the International Convention for the
Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) was adopted by IMO, many updates had
followed. By 2010, the techniques and technologies for calculating emissions and
corresponding energy efficiency had matured and were being incorporated into new
ships. Further guidelines would follow, including the Annex VI regulations on Energy
Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) aimed to reduce fuel consumption through technical and
design-based measures, as well as the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI)
and Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) to evaluate and improve the fuel
efficiency of existing ships.

Further regulatory advancements had been in design and taking hold in the industry
around 2010. Concerns over SOx emissions had grown over the previous decade, and
the installation of the first sulphur scrubbers on ships began. Slow steaming was urged

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as another approach to decrease emissions (a strategy that coincided with
overcapacity). New SOLAS regulations were adapted to pay more attention to damage
stability, and cabins were no longer allowed to be constructed under watertight decks.

These complexities boosted the role of advanced techniques in shipbuilding. While

many of the new orders for large ships were headed to the Far East, European yards
had begun specialising in high-tech and complex vessels that were in demand given the
growth in emerging sectors such as offshore wind, as well as the growing popularity of
the cruise tourism industry. Shipowners were experimenting with alternative fuels as a
power source, for example LNG and methanol. The technology suppliers to the
shipbuilding industry were, by this time, well-established across the global shipbuilding
markets.

But although environmental disasters had been reduced by the improved regulations,
techniques, and safety protocols, they did not disappear. The Deepwater Horizon oil
disaster in 2010 would impact the offshore industry and usher in further HSE
regulations. In line with the worldwide trend for sustainability that was garnering a
foothold across industries, international emissions regulations were tightening, and the
concept of clean shipping became more visible, especially in fragile areas such as the
Arctic and the Baltic Sea Region. To decrease the hazards and material waste from the
other end of the ship’s life cycle, increasingly more attention was paid to developing
proper ship recycling practices.

While leaps in connectivity had, by this time, integrated on-shore economies, shipping
held onto older technologies. Over the seas and oceans, broadband connectivity, AIS
data, and satellite coverage was limited and unreliable. Port operations and berthing
was conducted via phone and radio. First generation of ECDIS (Electronic Chart Display
and Information System) had been developed and implemented on ships more and more
- but not without problems related to cybersecurity. Digital monitoring was becoming
more common, but the majority of ships had yet to even install flowmeters or other
devices to monitor their fuel consumption.

The purpose of this introduction has been to present a current state of play and a brief
history of maritime and related industries since 2000. From here, the report will begin
to lay out a vision for the future. The next section will present ECOPRODIGI’s roadmap
that illustrates a trajectory for the industry. Following the roadmap, descriptions of
the events presented in the roadmap can be referenced for more information. In the
appendix, readers can find details of the methods that were used to construct the
roadmap.

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 Shipyard 4.0
An innovation and policy roadmap for digitalising shipyard operations

01. Real-time planning 02. Welding quality is

tools track progress &
report problems 2023 digitally monitored in
real-time.

03. AI-enhanced documents 04. Digital databases

anticipate, forecast, and
warn on events 2024 improve task training
and handover

05. Biocide-free 06. AR, VR, and

2025
07. AI systems control 08. 3D Scanning is 09. Aerial drones
coating innovations 3D simulation standardised for perform incremental
and manage
surpass toxic anti- used in task ship inspections 3D scans at yards
warehouse inventory
fouling paints training

2026
11. Microgrids
10. Additive manufacturing
supplement yards'
of spare and missing parts
electricity needs

12. Autonomous and 14. Aerial drones

2027
13. Digital twin files 15. Digital twins are
flexible robots weld in are shared across perform basic used for virtual
hard-to-reach places stakeholders services delivery inspections

18. Warehouse

2028
16. Unmanned lifting 17. Digital twins are
operations performed
vehicles displace used in planning
by automated drones
tractor operators repairs

19. 3D printers are

used to print large
blocks 2029

20. Composite

2030 materials are used

for large vessel hulls

www.ecoprodigi.eu 9
Appendix 1: Roadmap elements

01 Real-time digital planning tools, shared across stakeholders, are

used to track progress and report problems at yards
Modern shipbuilding requires the coordination of hundreds of workers from
different companies coming from many countries. Organising and coordinating
work is done in worklist planning, but it remains a challenge to modify and update
the worklist as contingencies arise. In the ECOPRODIGI project, it has been noted
that there are many inefficiencies that could be overcome by improving situational
awareness in the process and supply chain management with digital tools. [1]

With digital tools, progress and problem tracking can be done in real-time to
improve synchronisation and thereby productivity. Lead times can be shortened
by coordinating plans, resources, materials, and tools effectively. With a digital
planner, it is easy to check out the facts and current work status, and to
concentrate on one’s actual work instead of spending extra time on investigating
issues.

However, establishing situational awareness in real-time means that leadership

must advocate its use, and the contractors must understand its value and use it.
Special attention must therefore be paid to proper training and education of the
workers.

References:

[1] ECOPRODIGI, (2020). Maritime industry processes in the Baltic Sea Region –
Synthesis of eco-inefficiencies and the potential of digital technologies for solving
them. Accessed 31 July 2020.

02 Welding quality is digitally monitored in real-time

Welding is a critical capability at yards. When welds are performed manually,
quality is not easily measured, verified, or controlled, but instead inspected only
with the human eye. More detailed information on welds would not only benefit
the welders performing the work, but could also be shared with inspectors to allow
for digital verifications, and with customers in the form of quality guarantees.

Tracking welding work digitally could collect data such as the identification and
credentials of the worker, as well as applied parameters such as wire speed, torch

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 speed, voltage, and the structural situation at the site of the weld. This data
would allow for cross-case analysis that can lead not only to improved
performance, but also to best-practice identification, better error detection, and
alerts for real-time process and decision support. [1]

Applying digital tools during welding operations will be made salient when
customers and classification societies want more traceability on welding quality.
Increasingly higher-strength steel structures require more precise process control
and advanced digital welding quality tracking will support this.

References:

[1] Hout, (2013). Weld process monitoring. Qualitymag.com. Accessed 31 July

2020.

03 Smart shipbuilding documentation is used to anticipate events,

produce forecasts, and alert early warnings, in the shipbuilding
process
Smart documentation is that which is monitored, facilitated, and fulfilled by
algorithms that are able to leverage prior data and patterns from a database or
knowledge base that can imbue the process with information in a timely manner.
Smart documentation, powered by AI, can anticipate events, produce forecasts,
and signal early warnings.

Smart processes could provide reports, execute supplemental information

requests, enabling smoother supply chain integration and customer interfacing,
and speed-up services such as quality inspections and surveys.

In order to unlock such gains, integrated cyber-physical systems that can gather
and process relevant data and leverage machine learning to simulate outcomes
are required [1]. In addition to setting up systems, the processes themselves have
to be standardised sufficiently to make sure that the inputs from the processes
are of adequate quality.

References:

[1] Schumann, F et al. (2017) From Raw Data to Smart Documentation: Introducing
A Semantic Fusion Process For Cyber-Physical Systems. DOI:
10.5281/zenodo.3581079. Accessed 31 July 2020.

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04 Digital knowledge databases are used at shipyards to make changes
from one contractor to another easier
Modern shipbuilding is a collaborative effort of a wide network of actors. While
some contractors may work at a yard for a long time, there is a trend towards
piecemeal project work. Trends in faster labour turnover are resulting in shorter
tenure among workers and problematic knowledge gaps. Improved experience
documentation could capture the lessons learned, meaning that learning curves
would not necessarily have to start over from scratch.

Creating task-specific instructions and developing them through experience

capture protocols could help orientate new workers and contractors, making
training less expensive. With a digital knowledge base, information could be
codified to protect it from being lost.

As most people have a mobile device, instructions with multi-language support

and visual references would be a smart way to guide workers. Equipped with a
built-in feedback system, capturing user experience could be easily introduced as
a daily operating standard.

For example, yard workers could be asked by their mobile device to reflect on
their day in the yard, what challenges they saw, and how they attempted to
overcome them, and what worked and what did not work. Captured as daily video
journals, photos, and written stories, these can be referenced, tagged, and made
searchable.

05 Innovations in ship hull coating paints are capable of achieving the

same results as toxic anti-fouling paints do
Ship hull fouling, the clinging of organisms to the hull of a ship, is a major source
of eco-inefficiency because of the drag that is incurred and the resulting need for
increased energy for propulsion. One of the most effective anti-fouling paints,
developed in the 1960s containing toxic organotin tributyltin (TBT), was banned
by the EU in 2008 because of the biocide’s negative impact on the marine
ecosystem.

Substituting toxic anti-fouling paints with non-toxic, biocide-free paints with the
same or better characteristics has been a challenge. The objectives of new coating
innovations are to improve the coating’s performance and duration while
eliminating any negative environmental impact [1]. Research in nanotechnology
has over the past 15 years delivered significant improvements [2]. While

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 experiments with nanoparticles have demonstrated improvements of the abrasion
resistance of paints, the hydrodynamic qualities in terms of boundary layer and
resistance of a non-leaching anti-fouling remain important.

As coating technologies develop their materials and processes, shipyards will need
to adapt their processes and equipment, for example in the introduction,
operation, and maintenance of next-generation spraying robots.

References:

[1] EU Ecodock project. (2007). Environmentally Friendly Coatings for Ship

Building and Ships in Operation. Accessed 31 July 2020.
[2] Kordas, (2019). Novel Antifouling and Self-Healing Eco-Friendly Coatings for
Marine Applications Enhancing the Performance of Commercial Marine Paints.
Accessed 31 July 2020.

06 Task training is improved by augmented reality, virtual reality, and

3D simulation applications
With the help of digital tools, production practices can be captured digitally. This
means that they can be analysed at a level of detail currently not possible. With
digital tools, it should be possible to find more areas for improvement and to make
the processes as efficient as possible (see also element 04).

Wearable cameras and sensors (for motion capturing, for example) can provide
necessary data that can be reproduced and visualised with the help of augmented
reality, virtual reality, and 3D simulations [1].

In this way, welding instructions can be delivered in formats that offer welders
visualised AR guidance for the process, making desired quality standards known.
In other words, the instructions are delivered as a form of experience.

References:

[1] Sharma, P. et al. (2019), Experience Capturing with Wearable Technology in

the WEKIT project. Accessed 31 July 2020.

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07 AI systems are used to control and manage warehouse inventory at
shipyards
Building a ship requires hundreds of thousands of parts, which get lost, run out of
stock, or expire as excess inventory, and so searching for parts is a daily activity
in the course of shipbuilding. Automated warehouses could optimise warehouse
operations, reducing costs and improving the timing of their staging.

By recognising patterns of consumption and making decisions based on them,

warehouse supervision by AI would result in the automation of inventory control
and management. Digital product identification protocols could keep a record of
the specifications for each part, a file of its digital twin, its current location in
the yard, and inventory levels. A variety of techniques such as scanning of
barcodes or RFID tags could be utilised for tracking the parts, depending on the
case in question [1]. Installing cameras that use machine vision would automate
the tracking of items around the yard.

Advanced warehousing would allow for a more integrated AI logistics system.

Having a digital twin of the envisioned end product itself could mean that the AI
system could know which parts would be needed for each end product, and it
would be able to check inventory status and order more parts if needed.

In other industries, such as the online retail industry, warehouses have already
implemented digital inventory applications, which could be used as models for
shipyards. As the work at shipyards is delegated to a large number of independent
subcontractors, developing a solution for shipyards would need to take this into
account.

References:

[1] Quest solution. (Undated). The pros and cons of RFID for inventory
management. Accessed 31 July 2020.

08 3D scanning is standardised and used in class inspections

Ship inspections are a regular part of shipbuilding. Current practice in the industry
sees ships and ship modules such as blocks being visually inspected on the spot.
Inspections take time, are one-off events, and rely heavily on the human eye and
memory.

3D scanning is already becoming a part of regular practice in shipyards. 3D

scanning technology creates precision images that could be useful in carrying out

14
 ship inspections, improving their accuracy and the detection of anomalies. This
significantly shortens installation times and reduces cut-out materials.

The files from 3D scanning are not necessarily transferable, making it a challenge
for stakeholders to share data [1,2]. Standards are required to ease their transfer
and readability, and necessary agreements on accessibility and the sharing of
intellectual property are needed. In the end, the ability to combine multiple scans
from across the value chain is needed to construct a more complete digital twin.

References:

[1] Maritime industry processes in the Baltic Sea Region – Synthesis of eco-
inefficiencies and the potential of digital technologies for solving them. p. 37.
Accessed 31 July 2020.
[2] Blom, M., (2018). Shipping gone 3D? Accessed 31 July 2020.

09 Aerial drones perform incremental 3D scans at yards

Setting up 3D scanners at yards entail costly interruptions to industrial processes
and workflows, arranging and moving the stationary scanning devices between
locations, and dangerous climbs for technicians [1]. With aerial drone-assisted 3D
scanning, taking measurements and producing the data to support digital twinning
activities could be undertaken while minimising the disturbances to day-to-day
operations. This could improve safety, and save time and money.

With their ability to offer higher perspectives from more angles, and their ability
to enter hard-to-reach spaces, higher quality scans should be possible when
compared with traditional 3D scanning. Making use of automated coordinates
would result in a single point cloud, which would eliminate the time consuming
work of combining point clouds from different locations together.

Drone technology, including autonomous solutions, is advancing and the

equipment trend is towards more affordability [1]. Meanwhile, drones are
improving rapidly, being recombined with other technologies and equipment, and
are increasingly able to carry more weight for longer durations.

References:

[1] Faro, (2019). Think 3d first to commercialize 3d drone scanning. Accessed 31

July 2020.

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10 Additive manufacturing (3D printing) is used to make spare (and
replacement) parts
Serious delays and bottlenecks can arise at shipyards when parts cannot be located
or are held up in the supply chain. When these problems are encountered, workers
and resources often have to be reassigned to secondary or tertiary value-adding
activities. Using additive manufacturing (3D printing) to produce spare and missing
parts on the spot could mitigate some instances of this problem.

Additive manufacturing technology (AM) is becoming more available, more

versatile and flexible, and capable of manufacturing different parts from different
materials. AM / 3D printing of spare and missing parts is already happening in
other industries to address supply chain problems; the automotive industry, for
example, is using AM on spare parts to reduce the need for warehouse capacity
[1].

An important obstacle for implementing AM is the lack of experienced workers

that can determine how and when additive manufacturing would be suitable at
yards. Furthermore, quality assurances about whether the AM part would match
the features of the original part are difficult to acertain. Spare parts are often
designed to be manufactured using traditional processes, which means that those
manufactured by AM need to be redesigned. Therefore, using AM for spare parts
provides the best results when its use in service has also been taken into account
when the original parts being designed.

References:

[1] Deloitte Consulting, (2020). 3D opportunity for the supply chain: Additive
manufacturing delivers. Accessed 31 July 2020.

11 Yards install microgrids to supplement their electric grids

Microgrids were developed as a solution to inconsistent power supply at remote
industrial sites. However, as the maritime industry explores ways to decarbonise,
microgrids at yards could supplement electric grids to optimise electricity use.
Powering microgrids using solar, tidal, wind, hydrogen or other electrofuels will
decrease yards’ environmental footprint [1,2].

Microgrids at yards will enable the increased electrification of lifting and transport
machinery, and will provide test beds for shore power for vessels to help the fleet

16
 transition to cold ironing, a practice that is currently limited because city grids
cannot bear the load when large vessels dock at yards.

The global microgrid market is growing at 11% per year, and is projected to reach
$46bn by 2025 [3,4]. Ongoing challenges at yards include allocating the space—
also for the installation of renewable energy generating technologies—and
procuring the knowledge and resources to oversee and control it.

References:

[1] Flaherty, (2018). Schneider Electric creates microgrid at Long Beach. Accessed
31 July 2020.
[2] A. Zahetian-Hosseini, Y. Sangsefidi and A. Mehrizi-Sani, (2018). Multi-Port DC
Microgrids: Online Parameter Adaptation in Model Predictive Control, IECON 2018
- 44th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Washington,
DC, 2018, pp. 5314-5319, doi: 10.1109/IECON.2018.8591044. Accessed 31 July
2020.
[3] A. Misra, G. Venkataramani, S. Gowrishankar, E. Ayyasam & V. Ramalingam
(2017) Renewable Energy Based Smart Microgrids—A Pathway To Green Port
Development, Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment, 37:2, 17-32,
DOI: 10.1080/10485236.2017.11907880. Accessed 31 July 2020.
[4] Marketwatch.com (2020) Remote Power System Microgrid Market Share.
Accessed 31 July 2020.

12 Autonomous, mobile, and flexible robots are used in welding in

hard-to-reach spaces
In advanced shipyards, automated welding robots, equipped with machine vision
and 3D model feature recognition, operate in parallel to construct hulls. They
have made the yard a safer place while simultaneously providing higher-quality
and more uniform welds. However, when welds need to be made outside the panel
lines, automation becomes much more challenging. For example, panel robots
can’t reach into a double bottom hull structure or get inside tanks and other hard-
to-reach areas.

Mobile and flexible welding robots will be able to crawl inside constrained spaces
and perform welding without the help of humans. To achieve this, research and
development must be conducted on new kinds of welding robots such as
autonomous welding tractors and snake robots [1]. New flexible robots could also
lead to the uptake of laser and plasma welding, not currently in use at yards.

17
 References:

[1] X50 Mobile Snake-arm Robot Launch at EXPO, (2016). Accessed 31 July 2020.

13 Digital twin file formats are standardised and easily shared across
stakeholders
Vessels are constructed to last many years which means that they will undergo
multiple upgrades over their lifespan to incorporate new technology and enable
them to perform new tasks. Such retrofittings and conversions require detailed
planning, which is currently based on drawings. With the advent of digital twins,
these plans can be digitised and the work can be simulated in advance to rehearse
work, allowing planners to identify more details and potential problems before
dry docking.

However, digital twin file formats are not easily shared. The technologies that are
used for scanning and measuring vary across suppliers, resulting in non-compatible
formats and proprietary software programs to be able to use them. The
international classification society is currently working on creating cross-industry
standards on the use of digital twins [1,2].

Digital twin standards would allow virtual delivery and virtual arrival to shipyards,
meaning that stakeholders could better compare and choose the service providers
after engaging in deeper specification and exploration. This advanced sharing of
information would give yards more time to plan and prepare for vessel
modifications, ultimately improving estimates, communication, and expectations
with the shipowners and operators contracting the services. In turn, this would
result in shorter dry docking times and more streamlined work processes at
shipyards.

References:

[1] ISO Ongoing Projects. Accessed 31 July 2020.

[2] ISO/DIS 23247-1 - Automation systems and integration — Digital Twin
framework for manufacturing. Accessed 31 July 2020.

14 Aerial drones, stationed at yards, begin performing basic services

such as part delivery
Many working hours at yards are spent on inventory control, retrieval and staging
of parts, and locating items and tools across the yard. Multipurpose aerial drones,
stationed at yards, could support a number of these tasks to support yard workers.
18
 As drone technology advances, new applications are being developed, and as such,
the commercial drone market is expected to grow tenfold from 3.4 billion euros
in 2018 to around 34 billion euros in 2023. [1,2]

An important task for aerial drones on the construction site would be the
transportation of items to hard-to-reach places. This activity requires precision
navigation and landing, and here we see drones being trained to recognise their
surroundings with machine learning and using beacons to guide landing and the
placement of objects. They are furthermore being equipped with sensors and
lasers that can detect and measure obstacles, substances and distances of all
kinds. Drones can even carry up to 200kg, and concepts under development are
targeting carrying capacities of a half-tonne.

References:

[1] Joshi, D. (2019), Drone Technology Uses and Applications for Commercial,
Industrial and Military drones in 2020 and the Future. Accessed 31 July 2020.
[2] McGee, P. (2019), How the Commercial Drone Market became Big Business.
Accessed 31 July 2020.

15 Digital twins and 3D imaging technologies are used for virtual

inspections at the time when a ship is delivered
Many modifications to- and deviations from- a ship’s original design are made
during construction. This results in the reality that a delivered ship never has the
exact specifications as initially planned. This presents a challenge to the ship
inspector, who identifies deviations from the design that are not always logged
and accounted for.

These deviations from the design to the final ship become a problem again when
subsequent work is being planned based on designs, but the actual ship being
worked on does not match the schematics. In such instances, shipyards are
required to re-work the plan and begin producing the parts when the actual ship
comes into the yard, resulting in expensive delays.

Creating a digital twin of the ship as it is being constructed would give shipowners
and yards better starting points for planning retrofits and rebuilds [1]. Other
sectors incorporating digital twins into inspections have improved the
effectiveness by 10% [2,3].

19
 References:

[1] Future Market Insights, (2018). An Incisive, In-depth Analysis on the Ship Repair
And Maintenance Services Market. Accessed 31 July 2020.
[2] Safety4Sea, (2019). The Digital Twin Concept explained. Accessed 31 July
2020.
[3] Safety4Sea, (2018). Ten technologies that will lead the way in the next five
years. Accessed 31 July 2020.

16 Unmanned lifting vehicles displace tractor operators

Lifting, transporting, and staging ship components for assembly is an important
part of shipyard operations. Currently, the machines that assist in performing
these tasks are operated by drivers who connect, attach, and lift components so
that they can be carried, pulled, or pushed into position.

In ports, for example, automated equipment to support operations is expected to

increase by 20% from 7,7 billion euros to 9,2 billion euros by 2023 [1]. Automated
guided vehicles (AGV) and lift AGVs are improving in their e-navigation
capabilities, as well as in making unmanned connections with trailers. While it is
sometimes difficult to recruit experienced tractor and lift operators,
accompanying this transition will be the demand for remote oversight over the
transport operations. [2]

AGVs and lift AGVs can operate without major changes to the infrastructure of
most yards, allowing for gradual and flexible transitions, in parallel with procuring
the skills required for operation. Benefits of autonomous operation include more
precise positioning, lower personnel costs, improved safety, and reduced CO2
emissions.

References:

[1] Icontainers, (2018). The future of automation at terminals and ports. Accessed
31 July 2020.
[2] Terberg.com, (2019). Roadmap to autonomous operation. Accessed 31 July
2020.

20
17 Digital twins are used to plan the retrofitting and rebuilding of ships
before they arrive at the yard
Vessels that are brought to shipyards for repair, retrofitting, and repurposing, are
inspected and measured upon arrival. This is a time-consuming task that extends
the vessel’s time out of operational service. These inspections will often reveal
findings that result in unforeseen challenges to the work order, causing delays and
adjustments to the original plan [1].

3D images of the vessel - also known as digital twins - could be used by the yard
in order to better prepare for the work. Digital twins would provide more accurate
measurements and information, thus improving the quality of planning, and
reducing the needs for making ad-hoc changes [1]. Better estimations of the
materials and skills required would make the process more efficient. A significant
improvement could see yards producing matching replacement parts even before
the ship starts its journey to the repair yard [2]. Furthermore, assessing and
verifying the outcomes of the work could be accomplished more effectively.

Based on the results of the piloting activities conducted in the ECOPRODIGI

project, a reduction of 40% in materials and 25% installation time could be
expected. However, to make virtual arrival for repair a common practice in the
industry, ECOPRODIGI recommends that the classification societies and
stakeholders establish standards to ease the transfer and usability of 3D imaging.
[3]

References:

[1] Aveva, (2013). On the beam: How 3D laser scanning technology brings new
opportunities in ship refitting and conversion. Accessed 31 July 2020.
[2] ECOPRODIGI, (2020). Maritime industry processes in the Baltic Sea Region –
Synthesis of eco-inefficiencies and the potential of digital technologies for solving
them. p. 38. Accessed 31 July 2020.
[3] ECOPRODIGI, (2020). Much ado about standardization. Accessed 04 Sept 2020.

18 Warehouse operations performed by automated drones

Efficient warehouse logistics and operations at shipyards are critical to
productivity. Workers use time to check databases and shelves for items, and
often must revert to their memories, or the memories of others, to locate items.

21
 Machine-assisted yard inventory would decrease the need for warehouse workers
and free up the workforce for use elsewhere. Drones, either aerial or terrestrial,
equipped with item scanners, could be used to improve the automation and
validation of warehouse processes. Drones can be used to retrieve items, shelve
new items that have just arrived to the shipyard, and control inventory.

Other industries such as grocery and online retail business can be used for
inspiration [1]. Unresolved issues regarding the technology, including the
adaptiveness of the robots and AI remain a challenge for their implementation at
shipyards [2].

References:

[1] Tech insider, (2018). Inside a warehouse where thousands of robots pack
groceries. Accessed 31 July 2020.
[2] The verge, (2019). Amazon warehouse robotics automation on AI 10 years
away. Accessed 31 July 2020.

19 3D printers are used to print large blocks

In principle, there is no size limit in what can be 3D printed or constructed by
additive manufacturing (AM) processes. Challenges, however, are the limitations
provided in the trade-offs between scale, speed, materials, and quality. [1] At
the largest scales, objects are printed on rail systems that move the object as it
is manufactured.

Taking into account the raw material stock and machine maintenance, printers
can operate 24/7. AM furthermore allows for faster iterative product designs and
a decrease in raw materials. Capabilities are also developing: Concrete is used to
produce houses; Plastics are used to make furniture, small cars and boat hulls;
Metal structures are being printed for bridges, fighter jet frames, and jet engines.
In 2017, one research project was able to additively manufacture a class approved
nickel aluminium bronze alloy boat propeller [2].

While the advantages are clear, the technology needs large investments and there
is a need for more research in, for example, testing the fatigue life of AM layered
manufactured parts. The opportunities, however, are plentiful. For vessel
subframes, wire DED AM technology could work over 10kg/h of metal with one
industrial robot and one AM tool to complete a 150-ton block. While one robot
could print this in 625 days, twenty robots cooperating could build it in little more
than 31 days.

22
 References:

[1] Formlabs, 2020. What Does Resolution Mean in 3D Printing? Accessed 31 July
2020.
[2] Damen 2017. World’s first class approved 3D ship’s propeller unveiled.
Accessed 31 July 2020.

20 Composite materials are used in the construction of hulls for large

ship
Novel composite materials are finding new applications in maritime and ocean
industries, for example as underwater pump covers, offshore underwater
structures, and floating oil storage tanks [1]. While composites have been used
for the construction of hulls for small boats, high-speed naval vessels, and many
other specialised vessels for some time, the use of composite hulls is spreading to
increasingly larger ships.

Composite hulls offer a number of advantages over steel hulls. Significant weight
reductions can be made, resulting in lesser fuel consumption and thereby lower
greenhouse gas emissions. Developing new and more eco-efficient materials is
thus needed. Corrosion maintenance and abatement costs could also be reduced,
and less vibrations improve the vessel’s underwater acoustic signature. It should
though be noted, however, that current composite materials can not be recycled,
and instead add to their environmental footprint.

The usage of composite hull materials for large ship hulls will require
modifications or adjustments to current SOLAS regulations; if steel is not used,
assessments are to be undertaken to demonstrate satisfactory fire and safety
levels, i.e. at least equivalent to those levels achieved when using steel. However,
developing and certifying them can create a new shipbuilding market which could
boost competitiveness against those using traditional technologies [2].

References:

[1] Veazy, (2020). Chinese Firm Building Floating Oil Storage Tanks. Accessed 31
July 2020.
[2] Gardiner, (2019). FIBRESHIP demonstrates ship hull section built in fiber-
reinforced composite. Accessed 31 July 2020.

23
Appendix 2: Methods

This report was developed as a part of the ECOPRODIGI WP4 on foresight. Foresight is
widely used in public policy, industry, and research domains to generate knowledge
about the future in order to be able to anticipate and plan for it. This appendix will
briefly outline the contribution of a series of applied tools, primarily belonging to the
domain of strategic foresight, that were used in connection with WP4. The methods
deployed in the project integrate a horizon scanning with a modified consensus forecast
and technology roadmapping. Most of the approach has been of a qualitative nature,
but there are also quantitative elements.

Any approach to map the future is, by its very nature, interdisciplinary. As such, this
report is primarily a product of a series of workshops, supported in the interim between
by the post processing of the results, and preparation of engagement materials for each
subsequent workshop.

Horizon scanning is the exercise of collecting and curating information and expectations
about the future, that, when compiled, becomes a reference library of strategic
intelligence. Humans are doing some form of scanning in our personal and professional
lives every day—whether conscious about it or not. While Horizon Scanning often
includes dynamic changes such as trends, in this report and in the work of ECOPRODIGI,
horizon scanning was used to source discrete events expected to happen in the future,
primarily 1) anticipated innovations 2) forthcoming policies, regulations, and standards,
that are expected to impact Ro-Ro and Ro-Pax shipping in the future. This scanning
activity was the result of desk research and interviews, and some were borrowed from
the Interreg North Sea Region PERISCOPE project. This resulted in an extensive list of
events that were then brought into workshops for assessment by the consortium
partners. Those that garnered the attention of participants were developed further into
venture concepts, or short descriptions of a discrete technology-market event that
would result in a value-adding capability, or a policy event that would alter the rules
of the industry in the future.

Discrete events that were deemed critical to the development of the industry were
selected for the establishment of a forecast of their “time to accepted practice” or
time to their “commercial availability.” In workshops, these were presented to the
consortium partners, who were asked to estimate when in the future they expect that
the event would occur. Using the median of these guesses as the crowdsourced forecast,
the events were placed on the roadmap to serve as an “anchor” in the roadmap, around
which other elements could be organised and ideated. Subsequent workshops were used
to re-assess the outputs from previous workshops and place a number of other discrete

24
events resulting from interim horizon scanning, new ideas developed during the post-
processing of the workshops, and some were borrowed from the PERISCOPE project.
Pictures of the roadmaps and videos of the presentations were taken to support in this
content development.

The content was then moved online and shared across the consortium. The partners
were asked to write 200-word descriptions of the different discrete events that
described the problem that the technology was being applied to, and the current
approach that industry actors are employing to accomplish the task (see appendix 1).

By this time, the three different roadmaps had been developed in parallel, one for Ro-
Ro and Ro-Pax logistics, one for vessel operations, and one for shipyards. However, a
decision was made that resulted in that two roadmaps were merged (logistics and
operations) into an integrated Ro-Ro and Ro-Pax operations roadmap, in order to
provide a more comprehensive assessment of the future because they had been
borrowing and co-developing content across the roadmap. The shipyard roadmap was
also borrowing and co-developing content from the other roadmaps, but in the end, the
audience and professionals that would use the shipyard roadmap was established to be
quite separate from those that would be using the integrated Ro-Ro/Ro-Pax roadmap.

When the roadmap had stabilised, outstanding questions remained on how to engage
and incorporate the perspectives of the wider industry ecosystem into the roadmap. A
survey with questions on each element in the roadmap was developed to this end that
asked respondents to assess “how many years from now” that the discrete events would
become “accepted practice” or “commercially available.” At first it was distributed to
the project team in order to validate the event and its clarity, and then it was
distributed to other stakeholders in the project as well as practitioners. The median
date for each of the events was used to position each of the discrete events on the
roadmap.

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© Bernd Flickenschild