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Stocks

IN-4232

Otoño 2023
1
Overview

Introduction
▪ Stocks
▪ Stock Transactions & Orders
▪ Equity Financing
▪ Equity Markets
Valuation:
▪ Present Value
▪ Dividend growth models
Financial ratios
▪ Dividend yields
▪ P/E multiples

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3
4
1/8 share of the Stora Kopparberg mine, dated 16 June 1288.

5
Industry Overview
What Is Common Stock?
▪ Equity, an ownership position, in a corporation
▪ Payouts to common stock are dividends, in two forms:
– Cash dividends
– Stock dividends
▪ Unlike bonds, payouts are uncertain in both magnitude and timing
▪ Equity can be sold (private vs. public equity)

Key Characteristics of Common Stock:


▪ Residual claimant to corporate assets (after bondholders)
▪ Limited liability
▪ Voting rights
▪ Access to public markets and ease of shortsales

6
Common & Preferred Stock
Stock can be issued in series with different rights (political and
economical).

For example, rights can be such as common stock holders cannot be


paid dividends until all preferred stock dividends are paid in full.

In the event of bankruptcy, common stock investors receive any


remaining funds after bondholders, creditors (including employees), and
preferred stock holders are paid.

On the other hand, common shares on average perform better than


preferred shares or bonds over time.

7
Common & Preferred Stock

Common stock usually carries with it the right to vote on certain matters,
such as electing the board of directors. However, a company can have
both a "voting" and "non-voting" class of common stock.

Holders of common stock are able to influence the corporation through


votes on establishing corporate objectives and policy, stock splits, and
electing the company's board of directors.

There is no fixed dividend paid out to common stock holders and so their
returns are uncertain, contingent on earnings, company reinvestment,
efficiency of the market to value and sell stock.

Additional benefits from common stock include earning dividends and


capital gains.

8
Stock Issuance

Why do firms issue stock?


▪ To finance investments, acquire other companies, repurchase debt
Where do firms issue stock?
▪ Sales of shares to raise new capital are said to occur in the primary
market.
▪ However, such sales occur relatively infrequently and most trades take
place on the stock exchange, where investors buy and sell existing
shares.
▪ Stock exchanges are really secondary markets.

9
Industry Overview
The Primary Market (Underwriting)
▪ Venture capital: A company issues shares to special investment
partnerships, investment institutions, and wealthy individuals
▪ Initial public offering (IPO): A company issues shares to the general
public for the first time (i.e., going public)
▪ Secondary or seasoned equity offerings (SEO): A public company
issues additional shares
▪ Stock issuance to the general public is usually organized by an
investment bank who acts as an underwriter: it buys part or all of the
issue and resells it to the public

Secondary Market (Resale Market)


▪ Organized exchanges: NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, etc.
▪ Specialists, broker/dealers, and electronic market-making (ECNs)
▪ OTC: NASDAQ

10
Chilean Stock Market Indexes
The General Stock Price Index (Indice General de Precios de
Acciones, or IGPA) is a market capitalization-weighted index that
measures price variations of the majority of the exchange's listed
stocks, classified by sectors according to its activity and revised
annually. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of
December 30, 1980.

The Selective Stock Price Index (Indice de Precios Selectivo de


Acciones, or IPSA) is composed of the 40 most heavily traded stocks
and revised quarterly.

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SP IPSA
NEMOTÉCNICO RAZÓN SOCIAL NEMOTÉCNICO RAZÓN SOCIAL
ENELAM ENEL AMERICAS S.A. CENCOSHOPP CENCOSUD SHOPPING S.A.
SQM-B SOC QUIMICA MINERA DE ANDINA-B EMBOTELLADORA ANDINA
CHILE S.A. SERIE B S.A. SERIE B
CHILE BANCO DE CHILE ECL ENGIE ENERGIA CHILE S.A.
COPEC EMPRESAS COPEC S.A. CAP CAP S.A.
CMPC EMPRESAS CMPC S.A. VAPORES COMPANIA SUD
AMERICANA DE VAPORES
FALABELLA FALABELLA S.A.
S.A.
BSANTANDER BANCO SANTANDER-CHILE
AESGENER AES GENER S.A.
CENCOSUD CENCOSUD S.A.
MALLPLAZA PLAZA S.A.
ENELCHILE ENEL CHILE S.A.
ITAUCORP ITAU CORPBANCA
BCI BANCO DE CREDITO E
IAM INVERSIONES AGUAS
INVERSIONES
METROPOLITANAS S.A.
COLBUN COLBUN S.A.
SONDA SONDA S.A.
CCU COMPANIA CERVECERIAS
RIPLEY RIPLEY CORP S.A.
UNIDAS S.A.
SMU SMU S.A.
PARAUCO PARQUE ARAUCO S.A.
ILC INVERSIONES LA
ENTEL EMP. NACIONAL DE
CONSTRUCCION S.A.
TELECOMUNICACIONES
S.A. SECURITY GRUPO SECURITY S.A.
AGUAS-A AGUAS ANDINAS S.A.,
SERIE A
CONCHATORO VINA CONCHA Y TORO S.A.

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Transactions Involving Stock
Buy (Long Position)
▪ Savings motive
▪ Speculative
Sell
▪ Liquidity needs
▪ Expect stock to decline in value
Short Sell (Sell stock without first owning it)
▪ Borrow stock from your broker with the promise to return it at some
later date.
▪ Sell the borrowed stock.
▪ Repurchase it at a later date to return it to your broker.
▪ Responsible for all dividends and other distributions while short the
stock.

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Types of Orders
Market Orders
▪ Buy or sell at the current market price
Limit Order
▪ Buy or sell at a specified price
▪ Limit by time period
Stop Orders
▪ Stop-loss: Sell if price falls below certain level
▪ Stop-buy: Buy if price rises above certain level

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The Dividend Discount Model
Most Basic Valuation Model for Common Stock
▪ Applies PV formulas to common-stock payouts
▪ Two inputs: expected future dividends, discount rate
▪ Notation:
– Pt: Price of stock at t (ex-dividend)
– D t: Cash dividend at t
– Et [ ]: Expectation operator (forecast) at t
– r t: Risk-adjusted discount rate for cashflow at t

𝐸𝑡 𝐷𝑡+1 𝐸𝑡 𝐷𝑡+2
𝑃𝑡 = 𝑉𝑡 𝐷𝑡+1 , 𝐷𝑡+2 , ⋯ = + 2
+⋯
1 + 𝑟𝑡+1 1 + 𝑟𝑡+2

𝐸𝑡 𝐷𝑡+𝑘
𝑃𝑡 ≡ ෍ 𝑘
1 + 𝑟𝑡+𝑘
𝑘=1
15
How Common Stocks are Valued
The value of a stock is equal to the stream of cash payments discounted at
the rate of return that investors expect to receive on other securities with
equivalent risks.

Common stocks do not have a fixed maturity; their cash payments consist of
an indefinite stream of dividends. The discounted-cash-flow (DCF) formula
for the present value of a stock is:

𝐷𝑡
𝑃𝑉 = ෍ 𝑡
1 + 𝑟𝑒
𝑡=1

However, the cash payoff to owners of common stocks comes in two forms:
cash dividends and capital gains and losses.
Where are capital gains and losses?

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Today’s Price
Shareholders require a rate of return re for buying a share. They buy for
P0 and sell one period later for P1 and receive dividends D1:
𝐷1 + 𝑃1
𝑃0 =
1 + 𝑟𝑒
The next buyer does the same thing:

𝐷2 + 𝑃2 𝐷1 𝐷2 + 𝑃2
𝑃1 = ⟹ 𝑃0 = +
1 + 𝑟𝑒 1 + 𝑟𝑒 1 + 𝑟𝑒 2

And the next…continuing indefinitely gives:


𝐻
𝐷1 𝐷2 𝐷𝐻−1 𝐷𝐻 + 𝑃𝐻 𝐷𝑡 𝑃𝐻
𝑃0 = + 2
+ ⋯+ + = ෍ +
1 + 𝑟𝑒 1 + 𝑟𝑒 1 + 𝑟𝑒 𝐻−1 1 + 𝑟𝑒 𝐻 1 + 𝑟𝑒 𝑡 1 + 𝑟𝑒 𝐻
𝑡=1

As H approaches infinity, the price of a stock equals the present value of


its cash flows!

17
Composition Total Present Value

18
Stock Valuation
The price an investor is willing to pay for a share of stock depends upon:
▪ Magnitude and timing of expected future dividends.
▪ Risk of the stock.
The stock´s discount rate, re, is the rate of return investors can expect to
earn on securities with similar risk.

𝐷1 + 𝑃1
𝑃0 =
1 + 𝑟𝑒

This is a condition of market equilibrium. If it did not hold, the share would be
overpriced or underpriced, and investors would rush to sell or buy it. The
flood of sellers or buyers would force the price to adjust so that the
fundamental valuation formula holds.

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Dividend Yields, Capital Gains, Total
Returns
Suppose that the current price of a share is P0, that the expected price at
the end of a year is P1, and that the expected dividend per share is DIV1.

The rate of return that investors expect from this share over the next year
is:
𝐷𝑖𝑣1 + 𝑃1 𝐷𝑖𝑣1 𝑃1 − 𝑃0
𝑟𝑒 = −1 = +
𝑃0 𝑃0 𝑃0
Dividend Yield Capital Gain
Rate

The stock´s discount rate, re, is the rate of return investors can expect to
earn on securities with similar risk.

Typically capital gains are the larger fraction of returns.

20
Exercise
“You say stock price equals the present value of future dividends? That’s
crazy! All the investors I know are looking for capital gains.”

Answer: Investors who buy stocks may get their return from capital gains as
well as dividends. But the future stock price always depends on subsequent
dividends. There is no inconsistency.

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Constant Dividends (No Growth)
Constant Dividends


𝑔 = 0 ⟹ 𝐷1 = 𝐷2 = ⋯ = 𝐷

Then the pricing relation simplifies to:



𝐷 ഥ
𝐷
𝑃0 = 𝑃1 = 𝑃2 = ⋯ = ⟹ 𝑟𝑒
𝑟𝑒 𝑃0
If dividends are constant, then we have that:
• Capital gains are zero
• Expected return on equity = Dividend Yield
• Price appreciation comes through growth of future dividends!

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The Dividend Discount Model
Most Basic Valuation Model for Common Stock
▪ Two additional simplifying assumptions:

𝐸𝑡 𝐷𝑡+𝑘 = 𝐷 ; 𝑟𝑡+𝑘 = 𝑟 ∀ 𝑘 ≥ 1
▪ In this case, we have the first version of the dividend discount model
or the discounted cashflow (DCF) model
∞ ∞
𝐸𝑡 𝐷𝑡+𝑘 𝐷 𝐷
𝑃𝑡 ≡ ෍ 𝑘
=෍ 𝑘
=
1 + 𝑟𝑡+𝑘 1+𝑟 𝑟
𝑘=1 𝑘=1
▪ Suppose now dividends grow at rate g over time (Gordon growth
model):
∞ ∞
𝐸𝑡 𝐷𝑡+𝑘 𝐷 1+𝑔 𝑘−1 𝐷
𝑃𝑡 ≡ ෍ 𝑘
=෍ 𝑘
= ;r > 𝑔
1 + 𝑟𝑡+𝑘 1+𝑟 𝑟−𝑔
𝑘=1 𝑘=1

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The Dividend Discount Model

Most Basic Valuation Model for Common Stock


▪ This provides a convenient expression for the discount rate:
𝐷
𝑃𝑡 = , 𝑟>𝑔
𝑟−𝑔

𝐷
𝑟−𝑔 =
𝑃𝑡

𝐷 𝐷𝑡 1 + 𝑔
𝑟 = +𝑔 = +𝑔
𝑃𝑡 𝑃𝑡

Please note: 𝐷𝑡 1 + 𝑔 = 𝐷𝑡+1 = 𝐷


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The Dividend Discount Model
Example:

Dividends are expected to grow at 6% per year and the current dividend
is $1 per share. The expected rate of return is 20%. What should the
current stock price be?
1,06
𝑃0 = × 1 = $7,57
0,20 − 0,06
▪ Note: DDM with constant growth gives a relation between current
stock price, current dividend, dividend growth rate and the expected
return. Knowing three of the variables determines the fourth.

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Example: Coca-Cola Company

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Exercise
Company Z’s earnings and dividends per share are expected to grow
indefinitely by 5% a year. If next year’s dividend is $10 and the market
capitalization rate is 8%, what is the current stock price?

Consider three investors: Mr. Single invests for one year, Ms. Double
invests for two years, and Mrs. Triple invests for three years.

Assume each invests in company Z. Show that each expects to earn a rate
of return of 8% per year.

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Exercise

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3


Dividend 10,00 10,50 11,03
Price 350,00 367,50 385,88

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DDM with Multiple-Stage Growth

Firms May Have Multiple Stages of Growth


▪ Growth Stage: rapidly expanding sales, high profit margins, and
abnormally high growth in earnings per share, many new investment
opportunities, low dividend payout ratio
▪ Transition Stage: growth rate and profit margin reduced by
competition, fewer new investment opportunities, high payout ratio
▪ Mature Stage: earnings growth, payout ratio and average return on
equity stabilizes for the remaining life of the firm

Example:
A company with D0 = $1 and r = 20% grows at 6% for the first 7
years and then drops to zero thereafter. What should its current
price be?
7
1.06 𝑡 × 1 1 1.06 7 1
𝑃0 = ෍ 𝑡
+ 7
∙ = $6.49
1.2 1.2 0.2
𝑡=1
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Exercise
Consider the following three stocks:

1) Stock A is expected to provide a dividend of $10 a share forever.

2) Stock B is expected to pay a dividend of $5 next year. Thereafter,


dividend growth is expected to be 4% a year forever.

3) Stock C is expected to pay a dividend of $5 next year. Thereafter,


dividend growth is expected to be 20% a year for five years (i.e., until
year 6) and zero thereafter.

If the market capitalization rate for each stock is 10%, which stock is the
most valuable? What if the capitalization rate is 7%?

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Exercise

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Dividends vs Investment Growth
Stock prices increase with (1) dividends D1 and (2) growth g. Problem is
there’s a tradeoff:

More dividends → less $ for investment → less growth and vice versa

Consider Dividend Payout Rate (d) as the fraction of earnings that the firm
pays in dividends each year

𝐸𝑡
𝐷𝑡 = ∙ 𝑝𝑡
𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑡
𝐸𝑃𝑆𝑡

To increase dividends, it must:


- increase earnings (E)
- decrease shares outstanding
- increase the dividend payout rate (p)

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EPS and P/E
Dividend Forecasts Involve Many Practical Challenges
▪ Terminology:
– Earnings: total profit net of depreciation and taxes
– Payout Ratio p: dividend/earnings = DPS/EPS
– Retained Earnings: (earnings - dividends)
– Plowback Ratio b: retained earnings/total earnings
– Book Value BV: cumulative retained earnings
– Return on Book Equity ROE: earnings/BV
▪ Using these concepts, different valuation formulas may be derived
▪ Note: these are mostly based on accounting data, not market values

33
EPS and P/E
Example:
(Myers) Texas Western (TW) is expected to earn $1.00 per share next
year. Book value per share is $10.00 now. TW plans an investment
program which will increase net book assets by 8% per year. Earnings
are expected to grow proportionally. The investment is financed by
retained earnings. The discount rate is 10%, which is assumed to be the
same as the rate of return on new investments. Price TW's share price if
– TW expands at 8% forever
– TW's expansion slows down to 4% after year 5
▪ Observe that
– Plowback Ratio b = (10)(0.08)/(1) = 0.8
– Payout Ratio p = (1-0.8)/(1) = 0.2
– ROE = 10%

34
EPS and P/E

Example (cont):
▪ Continuing Expansion Case:

𝑔 = 𝑅𝑂𝐸 × 𝑏 = 0.10 0.8 = 0.08

𝐷1 = 𝐸𝑃𝑆1 × 𝑝 = 1 0.2 = 0.2

𝐷1 0.2
𝑃0 = = = $10.00
𝑟 − 𝑔 0.10 − 0.08

35
EPS and P/E
Example (cont):

▪ 2-Stage Expansion Case. Forecast EPS, D, BVPS by year:


Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
EPS 1.00 1.08 1.17 1.26 1.36 1.47
Investment 0.80 0.86 0.94 1.00 1.08 0.59
Dividens 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.26 0.28 0.88
BVPS 10.00 10.80 11.66 12.60 13.60 14.69 15.28

5
𝐷𝑡 1 0.88
𝑃0 = ෍ 𝑡
+ 5
∙ = $10.00
1.1 1.1 0.10 − 0.04
𝑡=1

Question: Why are the values the same under both scenarios?

36
Growth Opportunities and Growth Stocks
What Are Growth Stocks?
▪ Stocks of companies that have access to growth opportunities are
considered growth stocks
▪ Growth opportunities are investment opportunities that earn
expected returns higher than the required rate of return on capital
▪ Example: IBM in the 60's and 70's.
▪ Note: The following may not be growth stocks
– A stock with growing EPS
– A stock with growing dividends
– A stock with growing assets
▪ Note: The following may be growth stocks
– A stock with EPS growing slower than required rate of return
– A stock with DPS growing slower than required rate of return

37
S&P500 now more concentrated in the 5 largest stocks than ever

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg

38
Growth Opportunities and Growth Stocks
Example:
ABC Software has: Expected EPS next year of $8.3333;
Payout ratio of 0.6; ROE of 25%; and, cost of capital of r = 15%
𝐷1 = 𝐸𝑃𝑆1 × 𝑝 = 8.33 0.6 = $5.00

𝑔 = 𝑅𝑂𝐸 × 𝑏 = 0.25 0.4 = 0.10

▪ Following a no-growth strategy (g=0,p=1), its value is


𝐷1 𝐸𝑃𝑆1 8.33
𝑃0 = = = = $55.56
𝑟−𝑔 𝑟 0.15
▪ Following a growth strategy, its price is
𝐷1 5.00
𝑃0 = = = $100
𝑟 − 𝑔 0.15 − 0.10
▪ Difference of $100 - $55.56 = $44.44 comes from growth
opportunities, which offers a return of 25%, higher than the required
rate of return 15%
39
Growth Opportunities and Growth Stocks
Example (cont):
▪ At t = 1: ABC can invest (0.4)(8.33)=$3.33 at a permanent 25% rate of
return. This investment generates a cash flow of (0.25)(3.33) = $0.83
per year starting at the t=2. Its NPV at t=1 is
0.83
𝑁𝑃𝑉1 = −3.33 + = $2.22
0.15
▪ At t = 2: Everything is the same except that ABC will invest $3.67,
10% more than at t = 1 (the growth is 10%). The investment is made
with NPV being
𝑁𝑃𝑉2 = 2.22 1.1 = $2.44

▪ The total present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) is


𝑁𝑃𝑉1 2.22
𝑃𝑉𝐺𝑂 = = = $44.44
𝑟 − 𝑔 0.15 − 0.10
▪ This makes up the difference in value between growth and no-growth

40
Stock Prices and Investment Opportunities
Example
Expected earnings = $5 per share
re = 12.5%

𝐷1 5
= = 40 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 ⟶ 𝑁𝑜 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ
𝑟𝑒 0.125

The firm engages in a projects that generate a return on equity (ROE) of


15%

It would be foolish for such a company to pay out all its earnings as
dividends.

The firm decides to lower dividend payout ratio (d) from 100% to 40%.

The firm maintains a plowback ratio (the fraction of earnings reinvested


in the firm) at 60%.
41
Stock Prices and Investment Opportunities

The new dividend will be $2 (40% x 5) instead of $5.

Will share price fall? No, it will raise.

Although dividends initially fall under the earnings reinvestment policy,


subsequent growth in the assets of the firm because of reinvested profits
will generate growth in future dividends, which will be reflected in today’s
share price.

42
Stock Prices and Investment Opportunities

43
Stock Prices and Investment Opportunities
The firm starts with assets of $100 million and is all equity financed.

ROE = 15%

Total earnings = ROE x $100 million = 0.15 x $100 million = $15 million.

3 million shares of stock outstanding  Earnings per share = $5

If 60% of the $15 million in this year’s earnings is reinvested, the value of
the firm’s capital stock will increase by 0.60 x $15 million = $9 million (or
by g=9%).

𝐷1 5 ∙ 1 − 0.6
𝑃0 = = = 57.14
𝑟𝑒 − 𝑔 0.125 − 0.09

44
Stock Prices and Investment Opportunities
In short, the investment opportunities have positive net present value.
This net present value is called present value of growth opportunities
(PVGO).

Therefore, we can think of the value of the firm as the sum of the value of
assets already in place plus PVGO.

𝐸1
𝑃0 = + 𝑃𝑉𝐺𝑂 = 40 + 17.14 = 57.14
𝑟𝑒

We know that in reality, dividend cuts almost always are accompanied by


steep drops in stock prices.

Does this contradict our analysis? Not necessarily: Dividend cuts are
usually taken as bad news about the future prospects of the firm, and it is
the new information about the firm—not the reduced dividend yield per
se—that is responsible for the stock price decline.

45
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
EPS=$5 → Reinvested (60%) → P=57.14 →(P/E)=(57.14/5) = 11.5
→ Reinvested (0%) → P=40.00 →(P/E)=(40.00/5) = 8.0

(P/E) ratio might serve as a useful indicator of expectations of growth


opportunities.
𝐸1 𝑃0 1 𝑃𝑉𝐺𝑂
𝑃0 = + 𝑃𝑉𝐺𝑂 ⇒ = 1 + 𝐸1
𝑟𝑒 𝐸1 𝑟𝑒 𝑟 𝑒

𝑃𝑉𝐺𝑂 This ratio reflects the component of firm value due to growth
𝐸1ൗ
𝑟𝑒 opportunities to the component of value due to assets already
in place.

Thus a high P/E multiple indicates that a firm enjoys ample growth
opportunities and reflects the market´s optimism concerning a firm´s
growth prospect.

46
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E)

𝐷1 𝐸1 1 − 𝑏 𝑃0 1−𝑏
𝑃0 = = ⟹ =
𝑟𝑒 − 𝑔 𝑟𝑒 − 𝑅𝑂𝐸 ∙ 𝑏 𝐸1 𝑟𝑒 − 𝑅𝑂𝐸 ∙ 𝑏

↑ 𝑅𝑂𝐸 ⇒↑ 𝑃/𝐸

• It is easy to verify that the P/E ratio increases with ROE.

• This makes sense, because high-ROE projects give the firm good
opportunities for growth.

• We also can verify that the P/E ratio increases for higher b as long
as ROE exceeds re.

47
Growth Opportunities and Growth Stocks

Stock Price Can Be Decomposed Into Two Components


1. Present value of earnings under a no-growth policy
2. Present value of growth opportunities

𝐸𝑃𝑆1
𝑃0 = + 𝑃𝑉𝐺𝑂
𝑟

▪ Terminology*:
– Earnings yield: E/P = EPS1/P0
– P/E ratio: P/E = P0/EPS1

*Note: In newspapers, P/E ratios are often computed with the most recent earnings, but investors
are more concerned with price relative to future earnings.

48
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E)

Assumption: re=12%

49
Growth Opportunities and Growth Stocks

▪ If PVGO = 0, P/E ratio equals inverse of cost of capital


1
𝑃 Τ𝐸 =
𝑟
▪ If PVGO > 0, P/E ratio becomes higher:

1 𝑃𝑉𝐺𝑂 1
𝑃 Τ𝐸 = + >
𝑟 𝐸𝑃𝑆1 𝑟
▪ PVGO is positive only if the firm earns more than its cost of capital

50
Key Points

▪ The Dividend Discount Model: Stocks and equity securities can be


valued by using present value techniques
▪ The Gordon Growth Model
▪ Discount rate, cost of capital, required rate of return
▪ Estimating discount rates with D/P and g
▪ EPS, P/E, and PVGO
▪ Definitions of growth stocks and growth opportunities

51

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