INTRODUCTION

Planning for the power sector requires a projection of electricity demand. As a result, the Central Electricity
Authority (CEA) periodically conducts the Electric Power Survey (EPS) of the nation to determine the medium-
and long-term electricity demand by State, Union Territory, Region, and all of India. Nineteen EPSs have been
completed thus far. Volume 1 of the 19th EPS report, the last in the series, was released in January 2017. It includes
detailed year-by-year electricity demand projections for each Discom, State, UT, Region, and all of India for the
years 2016–17 to 2026–27, as well as the anticipated electricity demand for the years 2031–32 and 2036–37 using
the Partial End Use Method (PEUM).

The electricity demand prediction for the National Capital Region (NCR) and Mega Cities were included in
Volumes II and III of the 19th EPS, respectively. The country's econometric prediction for electricity demand was
covered in the fourth volume. The 20th Electric Power Survey Committee (EPSC) was established by CEA in
May 2020 to reevaluate the demand for power. Electricity demand predictions have been made for
Discoms/States/UTs/Regions and for the nation through PEUM for the years 2021-22 to 2031-32, based on the
course of action recommended by the EPSC. For each Discom, projections of electricity consumption have been
made independently for various consumer groups, including residential, commercial, industrial, irrigation, public
water works, public lighting, railroads, etc.

OVERVIEW OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST

The power ministry had estimated that the peak power demand would touch 229 GW during summer in April,
reported news agency PTI.

The unseasonal rains have affected the demand and brought down temperature during summer, resulting in fewer
use of cooling appliances.

The power ministry had asked all imported coal-based power plants to run at full capacity from 16 March, 2023
to 15 June, 2023, to meet any unprecedented rise in demand and consumption of electricity in the country.

The ministry had asked the domestic coal-based thermal power plants to import coal for blending to avoid any
shortfall of the dry fuel.

The government data shows that peak power demand met was 215.97GW in April and 221.34GW in May this
year. The shortfall was just 170MW in April and 23 MW in May.

The experts said that the shortfall is miniscule which may be caused due to technical reasons.

The consumption of power dipped in March and remained almost flat in April this year. It again dipped in May,
showing the impact of unseasonal rains in the country.

Power consumption dipped to 126.82 billion units (BU) in March this year from 128.47 BU in the same month a
year ago. It was almost flat at 132.15 BU in April 2023 compared to 132.02 BU in the same month last year.

Consumption of power again dipped to 134.20 BU in May 2023 from 135.15 BU in the same month a year ago.
Experts say power consumption growth may remain subdued in June due to rains.

After a strong increase in electricity demand in 2021, demand remained resilient in 2022 amid the global energy
crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While electricity demand declined in Europe and growth slowed
down in China, the United States and India saw a high increase in electricity demand following a relaxation of
coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic restrictions and an increase in economic activity. Demand rose by about 2%,
which is just below the average growth rate seen over the period 2015-2019.

From 2016 to 2022 the share of electricity increased at a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%, with the highest
increase (4.5%) seen in 2020. The current share of electricity in total final energy demand is 20%. This share
grows to more than 27% by 2030 in the NZE Scenario - a compound average annual growth rate of around 4.1%.
The pace at which electricity increases its share will have to accelerate to get on track with the NZE Scenario
milestones.

Despite its major contribution to emission reductions, the road transport sector has the smallest share for electricity
in the total energy demand in 2030 under the NZE Scenario. The share increases twenty-fold until 2030, from just
under half a percent in 2022 to around 9% in 2030. As the buildings and industrial sectors already have a larger
electricity share, they show a slower pace of acceleration for this indicator, with growth of 40% and 30%,
respectively. However, for all sectors the average annual rate at which the share of electricity increases will need
to more than double compared to the historical rate..

CATEGORIES OF CONSUMPTION
The Discom-wise/ State/UT-wise, Region-wise and all- India projection of electricity consumption has been done
on yearly basis from the years 2021-22 to 2031-32 for each of the following categories of electricity consumption:
OVERVIEW OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY :
India, in common with much of the rest of the world, has been severely affected by the Covid‐ 19 pandemic, in
terms of both the immediate toll on human life and the broader impact on livelihoods due to lockdowns and other
restrictions. There are multiple possible pathways that India could follow as it emerges from today’s crisis

Electricity demand grows much faster than overall energy demand in all of the scenarios examined, putting
electricity at the centre of India’s modernisation (Table 3.2). The transformation of India’s electricity sector
also gains ground. In the STEPS, variable renewable energy sources make up a larger share of total electricity
generation than coal by 2040. Installed solar capacity exceeds 700 GW by 2040, enough to meet nearly a third
of India’s power demand. This rate of growth is supported by the wide‐scale deployment of batteries.
Another key question is how much the pandemic might set back the transformation of the sector (Figure 3.2).
So far, renewables have weathered the shock from Covid‐19 relatively well; as of September 2020, around 8
GW of new solar capacity had been auctioned during 100 150 200 250 2010 2013 2016 2019 Index (2010 =
100) Access Demand per capita Generation capacity Grid length Growth in key indicators ‐20% ‐10% 0%
10% Investment Demand Capacity 2020 2015‐19 (average) Annual change IEA. All rights reserved. 116
World Energy Outlook 2021 | Special Report 2020, with tariffs around 4% lower on average than in 2019
(IEA, 2020b). However, there is greater uncertainty around the longer‐term outlook for solar PV, with the
Covid‐19 pandemic sharpening several existing structural challenges. A drop in industrial and
commercial demand has left discoms with a customer base that includes a greater share of residential
households and agricultural consumers paying tariffs that often lie below the cost of production, while
perceived credit risks are growing as several existing projects experience delays and cancellations. The
challenges are not restricted to solar: wind capacity additions in 2020 are expected to drop to their lowest
level in a decade. The hard‐won gains of near‐ universal household access are also at risk as the economic
downturn translates into fewer customers able to afford a basic bundle of electricity services. Both the
opportunities and the challenges that lie ahead are enormous. Auctions have revealed how cost‐
competitive solar power has become, and long‐term renewable deployment targets are well within reach.
In the STEPS, India is second only to China in terms of new installed renewable capacity to 2040. However,
this rise will have huge implications for the operational flexibility required across India’s power sector.
Reconciling the desire for a cost‐reflective and efficient power system with the imperative to provide
affordable, equitable supply of electricity is going to require a skilful balancing act.
The size of the impact of increased use of cooling systems on the daily peak of electricity demand is subject
to several uncertainties. One important factor is how purchases of air conditioners divide between higher‐
and lower‐income households, as higher‐income households are more likely to run air conditioning more
frequently, with less regard to cost. The efficiency of air conditioners purchased in the coming years will also
have a significant impact on the daily peak, and efforts are under way to strengthen minimum performance
standards. If measures are implemented that restrict sales of the least efficient models, this could reduce peak
demand considerably. However, the timing of such measures is critical, as every year in which standards are
not tightened means a progressively larger annual increase in peak demand. If measures are implemented
in 2021, more efficient appliances could decrease the contribution of residential cooling to peak daily
electricity demand in 2030 by a third, or around 25 GW. This would obviate the need for around $9 billion
to $15 billion of investment in peaking plant capacity. It would also be possible to lower peak demand by
having ACs operate more flexibly, as part of a demand response programme; improvements in the efficiency
of building envelopes or a bigger roll‐out of more passive or mixed‐mode cooling systems could also
contribute to a reduced peak. In addition to cooling, there are several uncertainties about the shape of
electricity demand in other parts of the energy sector. For example, government programmes supporting
charging infrastructure in cities or places of work could lead to a greater proportion of electricity
demand from transport taking place during working hours, providing a good match with solar PV availability.
There are other emerging opportunities for shifting peak load to different times of day to help balance
supply and demand, such as off‐peak charging or shifting the timing of the operation of agricultural
pumps. India could provide a vital testing 0h 12h 24h 2040 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0h 12h 24h
GW Industry Agriculture Transport Services Residential Pre‐crisis projection 2019 IEA. All rights reserved.
118 World Energy Outlook 2021 | Special Report ground for the larger‐scale adoption of such demand‐side
response (DRS) systems, although there are numerous technological prerequisites, such as advanced
load prediction and control tools, real‐time metering of electricity, and time‐of‐use tariffs.
OVERVIEW OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY :
The task of managing the daily variability of demand, and in particular coping with the level at which demand
peaks, is a crucial part of electricity system operation and planning. This task is made more challenging by the
scale of growth in variable renewables over the next decade. In the STEPS, India adds nearly 900 GW of wind
and solar capacity over the period to 2040. Solar PV leads the charge (Figure 3.4). The vast majority of capacity
additions are from large, utility‐scale projects; the share of distributed solar PV in the STEPS remains low because
of its relatively high cost compared with large‐scale solar projects and the logistical and regulatory challenges
which have slowed capacity growth to date.

Despite being seen as something of a junior partner to solar, wind is the second‐largest source of capacity
growth in the STEPS, with an additional 200 GW underpinned by ambitious targets to exploit India’s significant
potential for both onshore and offshore wind. Although wind power is also a variable resource, it can
complement solar effectively in India; the monsoon season from June to September, which is a period of
relatively lower solar resource availability, brings higher output from offshore wind projects than the rest
of the year (IEA, 2019).

There are also capacity additions in the STEPS from other low‐carbon generation sources, notably nuclear and
hydropower. India has a total of six nuclear reactors under construction, and these will add more than 4 GW to
the 7 GW fleet by the late 2020s. In the STEPS, India continues to expand its fleet of nuclear reactors to
complement the rapid growth of renewables. As modern large‐scale reactor designs move past first‐of‐a‐
kind projects, construction periods and costs are set to fall, enabling India to add more than 25 GW of nuclear
power capacity between 2019 and 2040. Hydropower also expands, with total capacity doubling over the
next two decades to about 100 GW in 2040. The vast majority of this growth is in the form of large hydro
projects, which manage to overcome significant hurdles such as land access and permitting challenges.
Government initiatives to improve project viability, including HPOs and financial support for enabling
infrastructure, enable these new projects to tap a significant share of the remaining hydro potential in India.

This supply picture means that variable renewable sources make up three‐quarters of new capacity additions over
the next two decades. With this immense growth, the question arises: to what extent is there a need for new
thermal capacity? Over the next 10 years, the strong growth of renewablesis not sufficient in the STEPS to keep
up with the projected pace of electricity demand growth, and coal‐fired power generation makes up the
difference, increasing by over 200 TWh from 2019 to 2030. Much of this increase comes from more intensive
utilisation of existing capacity, but new coal‐fired capacity of over 20 GW in the next decade is also required
in the STEPS to provide additional generation and extra flexibility, with capacity under construction making
up for upcoming retirements. As of September 2020, up to 60 GW of coal‐fired capacity were designated
as being under construction (CEA, 2020), but only half of these are completed by 2030 in the STEPS. The need
for additional fossil‐fuelled capacity in India wanes after 2030 in the STEPS. With mature technologies and supply
chains, renewables meet about 90% of demand growth in the 2030s in the STEPS. With the additional contribution
of nuclear power, there is no need for additional fossil‐fuelled generation, and coal‐fired capacity begins to decline
in the 2030s in the STEPS, with closures outweighing another 16 GW of capacity additions, bringing to an end
the consistent growth of the industry over the past 60 years. Gas‐fired capacity increases in part to offset
reductions in coal, but principally to help meet rising power system flexibility needs.