CH 7
CH 7
Rate-of-Return Analysis
Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Ed.
By Park, C.S.
Incremental Analysis
Mutually Exclusive
Alternatives
Mathematical Relation:
PW(i*) PW(i*)cash inflows PW(i*)cash outflows
0
0
1 2 3
Rate of Return = 10%
PW(10%)Outflow $10,000
$4,021 $4,021 $4,021
$10,000 PW(10%)Inflow $10,000
(10.1) (10.1) (10.1)
2 3
Project Balance
Unpaid Return on Unpaid
Payment
Year balance at unpaid balance at
received
beg. Of year balance (10%) end of year
0 -$10,000
1 -$10,000 -$1,000 $4,021 -$6,979
2 -$6,979 -$698 $4,021 -$3,656
3 -$3,656 -$366 $4,021 0
Computational Methods
• Direct Solution Method
• Trial-and-Error Method
• Using Software
ISE 307 - Term 192 Dr. Yasser Almoghathawi, KFUPM 15
Simple vs. Non-simple Investments
Simple investment
• An investment in which the initial cash flows are negative and
only one sign change occurs in the net cash flow series – a
unique rate of return
Non-simple investment
• An investment in which the initial cash flows are negative and
more than one sign change occurs in the net cash flow series –
a possibility of having more than one rate of return
Trail-and-Error Method:
• For complex projects
Using Software:
• Excel can be utilized to calculate IRR
n Project 1 Project 2
0 -$3,000 -$2,000
1 0 $1,300
2 0 $1,500
3 0
4 $4,500
2 27,340
3 55,760
$75,000
3,553
i 15% 3% 17 . 45 %
ISE 307 - Term 192 Dr. Yasser Almoghathawi, KFUPM
3,553 749 23
Finding IRR: Trail-and-Error Method
Example 7.3: Find i* using Trial-and-Error method
ACME Corporation distributes agricultural equipment. The board of
directors is considering a proposal to establish a facility to manufacture
an electronically controlled "intelligent" crop sprayer invented by a
professor at a local university. This crop-sprayer project would require
an investment of $10 million in assets and would produce an annual
after-tax net benefit of $1.8 million over a service life of eight years. All
costs and benefits are included in these figures. When the project
terminates, the net proceeds from the sale of the assets would be $1
million (Figure 7.2). Compute the rate of return of this project.
PW(i)
IRR = i*
ROR Analysis:
• If IRR > MARR, accept 0
i
A unique ROR
PW(i) > 0 PW(i) < 0
• IRR = i*
PW(i)
• If IRR > MARR, Accept
• If IRR = MARR, Indifferent 0
i*
• If IRR < MARR, Reject
PW (i)
• Find the true IRR by using the i*
procedures in Appendix 7A i
i*
• Or alternatively, abandon the
IRR method and use the PW
method or AE method.
MARR = 15%
$1,000,000 $1,320,000
2
1
Let , then
1+𝑖
2
Use PW(i)
PW (MARR = 15%) = 1890
0 -$1,000 -$5,000
1 $2,000 $7,000
1000/1000 2000/5000
IRR
100% > 40%
0 -$1,000 -$5,000
1 $2,000 $7,000
1000/1000 2000/5000
IRR
100% > 40%
0 -$1,000 -$5,000
1 $2,000 $7,000
ROR 100% 40%
PW(10%) $ 818 $1,364
Project A: needs $1,000 from investment pool. Remaining $4,000 will
continue to earn 10% interest. One year later, $2,000 from the project
investment and $4,400 from investment pool. At the end of one year for
$6,400 (28% return on $5,000). The equivalent PW of this will be:
PW(10%)= -$5,000 + $6,400(P/F, 10%, 1) = $818
Project B: needs $5,000 from investment pool, will generate $7,000 after
one year. The equivalent PW of this will be:
PW(10%)= -$5,000 + $7,000(P/F, 10%, 1) = $1,364
ISE 307 - Term 192 Dr. Yasser Almoghathawi, KFUPM 40
Incremental Analysis
Incremental
n Project A Project B
Investment (B – A)
0 -$1,000 -$5,000 -$4,000
1 $2,000 $7,000 $5,000
ROR 100% 40% 25%
PW(10%) $ 818 $1,364 $546
Note: Make sure that both IRRA and IRRB are greater than MARR
PW(10%)B1= -$3000+$1350(P/F,10%,1)+$1800(P/F,10%,2)+$1500(P/F,10%,3)
= $842
PW(10%)B2=-$12,000+$4200(P/F,10%,1)+$6225(P/F,10%,2)+$6330(P/F,10%,3)
= $1718.5
Solution: n D1 D2 D1 - D2
0 -$2,000 -$1,000 -$1,000
1 1,500 800 700
2 1,000 500 500
3 800 500 300
Step 2: Compare D1 and D2 in pairs IRR 34.37% 40.76% ?
PW( i ) = -$1,000+$700(P/F, i, 1)+ $500(P/F, i, 2)+ $300(P/F, i, 3) = 0
Solution: n D1 D3 D3 – D1
0 -$2,000 -$3,000 -$1,000
1 1,500 1,500 0
2 1,000 2,000 1,000
3 800 1,000 200
Example:
x Although
Solution