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Ch-7

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
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Ch-7

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raynaldi9nu57
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Chapter 7 - Rate of

Return Analysis
The Big Picture
• Framework: Accounting & Breakeven Analysis
• “Time-value of money” concepts - Ch. 3, 4
• Analysis methods
– Ch. 5 - Present Worth
– Ch. 6 - Annual Worth
– Ch. 7, 8 - Rate of Return (incremental analysis)
– Ch. 9 - Benefit Cost Ratio & other techniques
• Refining the analysis
– Ch. 10, 11 - Depreciation & Taxes
– Ch. 12 - Replacement Analysis

2
Three Major Methods of
Economic Analysis
• PW - Present Worth
• AW - Annual Worth
• IRR - Internal Rate of Return
If P = A(P/A, i, n)
Then (P/A, i, n) = P/A
Solve for (P/A, i, n) and look up
interest in Compound Interest Tables

3
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• The interest rate paid on the unpaid balance of a
loan such that the payment schedule makes the
unpaid loan balance equal to zero when the final
payment is made. Ex: P = $5000, i = 10%, n = 5
Year Principal Prin. Paid Int Paid Payment
1 5000.00 818.99 500.00 1318.99
2 4181.01 900.89 418.10 1318.99
3 3280.13 990.97 328.01 1318.99
4 2289.15 1090.07 228.92 1318.99
5 1199.08 1199.08 119.91 1318.99
6 0.00 0.00
4
Calculating Rate of Return

• The IRR is the interest rate at which the


benefits equal the costs. IRR = i*
PW Benefit - PW Cost = 0
PW Benefit/PW Cost = 1
NPW = 0
EUAB - EUAC = 0
PW Benefit = PW Cost

5
Calculating IRR - Example 7-1
• PWB/PWC = 1
• 2000(P/A, i, 5)/8200 = 1
• (P/A, i, 5) = 8200/2000 =
4.1
• From Table, IRR =
7%
From Compound Interest Tables
Interest rate (P/A,i,5)
6% 4.212
7% 4.100
8% 3.993
6
Calculating IRR - Example 7-2

Sometimes we have more than one factor in our equation.


When that happens we cannot solve for just one factor.

If we use: EUAB - EUAC = 0


100 + 75(A/G, i, 4) - 700(A/P, i, 4) = 0

7
Calculating IRR - Example 7-2 (cont’d)
• No direct method for calculating. Use trial and error
and iterate to get answer.
• Try i = 5%:
100 + 75(A/G, 5%, 4) - 700(A/P, 5%, 4) = + 11
+ 11 is too high. The interest rate was too low
• Try i = 8%
100 + 75(A/G, 8%, 4) - 700(A/P, 8%, 4) = - 6
- 6 is too low. The interest rate was too high
• Try i = 7%
100 + 75(A/G, 8%, 4) - 700(A/P, 8%, 4) = 0
Therefore IRR = 7%
8
Calculating IRR - Example 7-3
• Example 7-3 shows a series of cash flows that does not match any
of our known patterns. We must use trial and error.
• Using NPW = 0, suppose we start with i = 10% . NPW = + 10.16,
which is too high.
• Using i = 15%, NPW = - 4.02. IRR is between 10% & 15%
• The iterations may be graphed and the true IRR will be indicated
at the point where the NPW curve = 0.
Yr CF
0 - 100
1 + 20
2 + 20
3 + 30
4 + 40
5 + 40
9
Calculating IRR - Example 7-3 (Cont’d)
• We can use linear interpolation to find estimate
the point where the curve crosses 0.
• IRR = i* = 10% + (15%-10%)[10.16/(10.16 +
4.02)] = 13.5%
• This is a linear interpolation of a non-linear
function so the answer is slightly inaccurate,
but good enough for decision making here
(after all, the guesswork in our future cash
flows introduces uncertainty in the analysis).
10
Calculating IRR - Example 7-3 (Cont’d)
• To get an exact answer, we can use the IRR function in
EXCEL
• Select the IRR function from the fx icon.
• Block the column on the spreadsheet that has the cash flows for
all years.
• The function returns the IRR.
-100
20
The IRR function in
30
EXCEL allows you to
20
evaluate the return of
40 investments very easily
40
13.47% =IRR(A1:A6)
EGR 403 - Cal Poly Pomona - SA9 11
Calculating IRR for a Bond - Example 7-4a
Bond Costs and Benefits:
Purchase price = $1000
Dividends = $40 every six months
Sold after one year for $950

Calculation of Periodic interest rate & IRR:


m = 2 compounding periods/year
1000 = 40(P/A, i, 2) + 950(P/F, i, 2)
By trial and error and interpolation i*  1.5%
IRR Nominal rate = 2 x 0.015 = 0.03 (3%)
IRR Effective rate = (1 + 0.015)2 - 1 = 0.0302 (3.02%)

12
Example 7-4a EXCEL Solution
• Use IRR function to find periodic IRR (i)
• Find nominal using r = i * m
• Use EFFECT function to find effective interest rate

Period Buy/sell Dividend Total


0 -1000 -1000
1 40 40
2 950 40 990
1.52% periodic
3.04% nominal
3.06% effective

13
Rate Of Return (ROR) Analysis

• Most frequently used measure of merit in


industry.
• More accurately called Internal Rate of
Return (IRR).

14
Calculating ROR
• Where two mutually exclusive alternatives will
provide the same benefit, ROR is performed using an
incremental rate of return (ROR) on the difference
between the alternatives.
• You cannot simply choose the higher IRR alternative.

Two-alternative Decision
situation
ROR MARR Choose higher-cost
alternative

ROR MARR Choose lower-cost


alternative

15
The Minimum Attractive Rate of
Return (MARR)
• The MARR is a minimum return the
company will accept on the money it
invests
• The MARR is usually calculated by
financial analysts in the company and
provided to those who evaluate projects
• It is the same as the interest rate used for
Present Worth and Annual Worth analysis.
16
ROR on Alternatives With Equivalent Benefits
Example 7-5: Consider the lease vs. buy situation. MARR = 10%
• Leasco: Lease for five years for 3 annual payments of $1000 each
• Saleco: Purchase up front for $2783
• Both alternatives have a $1200/year benefit for 5 years
Cash flow - Cash flow - Cash flow -
Year alternative alternative alternative
A (Leaseco) B (Saleco) B-A

0 -$1,000.00 -$2,783.00 -$1,783.00


1 $200.00 $1,200.00 $1,000.00
2 $200.00 $1,200.00 $1,000.00
3 $1,200.00 $1,200.00 $0.00
4 $1,200.00 $1,200.00 $0.00
5 $1,200.00 $1,200.00 $0.00

IRR/period 48.72% 32.60% 8.01%


17
Example 7-5 (Cont’d)
• Cannot simply pick the highest IRR if alternatives have
different investment costs
• Must examine the incremental cash flows!!
• Subtract the cash flows for the “Lower First Cost”
alternative from the cash flows of the “Higher First Cost”
alternative to obtain the “Incremental Cash Flow” or 
• Compute the IRR on the incremental cash flow. This is
the ROR.
• For this problem the ROR is 8.01% which is
MARR, therefore choose the lower cost alternative.
18
Example 7-5 (Cont’d)
• Q. Why did we do this?
• A. Both alternatives were acceptable compared only to
the MARR. Since either alternative will work, the
question is whether we want to spend the additional
$1783 to go from the lower cost to the higher cost
alternative. The benefit for doing so is the savings of two
years of $1000 lease payments. Essentially we are getting
an 8.01% return on that $1783 investment. The company
can get 10% ROR on its money elsewhere, so reject the
increment. That is, spend $1000 now on Leaseco and
invest the other $1783 for a higher return.
19
Analysis Period
• Just as in PW and AW analysis the analysis period must
be considered:
– Useful life of the alternative equals the analysis period.
– Alternatives have useful lives different from the analysis period.
– The analysis period is infinite, n = 

For an example of that uses a


common multiple of the
alternate service lives, see
Example 7-10. EXCEL would 7-10
be useful here because of the
irregularity of the cash flows.
20

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