Ch-7
Ch-7
Return Analysis
The Big Picture
• Framework: Accounting & Breakeven Analysis
• “Time-value of money” concepts - Ch. 3, 4
• Analysis methods
– Ch. 5 - Present Worth
– Ch. 6 - Annual Worth
– Ch. 7, 8 - Rate of Return (incremental analysis)
– Ch. 9 - Benefit Cost Ratio & other techniques
• Refining the analysis
– Ch. 10, 11 - Depreciation & Taxes
– Ch. 12 - Replacement Analysis
2
Three Major Methods of
Economic Analysis
• PW - Present Worth
• AW - Annual Worth
• IRR - Internal Rate of Return
If P = A(P/A, i, n)
Then (P/A, i, n) = P/A
Solve for (P/A, i, n) and look up
interest in Compound Interest Tables
3
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• The interest rate paid on the unpaid balance of a
loan such that the payment schedule makes the
unpaid loan balance equal to zero when the final
payment is made. Ex: P = $5000, i = 10%, n = 5
Year Principal Prin. Paid Int Paid Payment
1 5000.00 818.99 500.00 1318.99
2 4181.01 900.89 418.10 1318.99
3 3280.13 990.97 328.01 1318.99
4 2289.15 1090.07 228.92 1318.99
5 1199.08 1199.08 119.91 1318.99
6 0.00 0.00
4
Calculating Rate of Return
5
Calculating IRR - Example 7-1
• PWB/PWC = 1
• 2000(P/A, i, 5)/8200 = 1
• (P/A, i, 5) = 8200/2000 =
4.1
• From Table, IRR =
7%
From Compound Interest Tables
Interest rate (P/A,i,5)
6% 4.212
7% 4.100
8% 3.993
6
Calculating IRR - Example 7-2
7
Calculating IRR - Example 7-2 (cont’d)
• No direct method for calculating. Use trial and error
and iterate to get answer.
• Try i = 5%:
100 + 75(A/G, 5%, 4) - 700(A/P, 5%, 4) = + 11
+ 11 is too high. The interest rate was too low
• Try i = 8%
100 + 75(A/G, 8%, 4) - 700(A/P, 8%, 4) = - 6
- 6 is too low. The interest rate was too high
• Try i = 7%
100 + 75(A/G, 8%, 4) - 700(A/P, 8%, 4) = 0
Therefore IRR = 7%
8
Calculating IRR - Example 7-3
• Example 7-3 shows a series of cash flows that does not match any
of our known patterns. We must use trial and error.
• Using NPW = 0, suppose we start with i = 10% . NPW = + 10.16,
which is too high.
• Using i = 15%, NPW = - 4.02. IRR is between 10% & 15%
• The iterations may be graphed and the true IRR will be indicated
at the point where the NPW curve = 0.
Yr CF
0 - 100
1 + 20
2 + 20
3 + 30
4 + 40
5 + 40
9
Calculating IRR - Example 7-3 (Cont’d)
• We can use linear interpolation to find estimate
the point where the curve crosses 0.
• IRR = i* = 10% + (15%-10%)[10.16/(10.16 +
4.02)] = 13.5%
• This is a linear interpolation of a non-linear
function so the answer is slightly inaccurate,
but good enough for decision making here
(after all, the guesswork in our future cash
flows introduces uncertainty in the analysis).
10
Calculating IRR - Example 7-3 (Cont’d)
• To get an exact answer, we can use the IRR function in
EXCEL
• Select the IRR function from the fx icon.
• Block the column on the spreadsheet that has the cash flows for
all years.
• The function returns the IRR.
-100
20
The IRR function in
30
EXCEL allows you to
20
evaluate the return of
40 investments very easily
40
13.47% =IRR(A1:A6)
EGR 403 - Cal Poly Pomona - SA9 11
Calculating IRR for a Bond - Example 7-4a
Bond Costs and Benefits:
Purchase price = $1000
Dividends = $40 every six months
Sold after one year for $950
12
Example 7-4a EXCEL Solution
• Use IRR function to find periodic IRR (i)
• Find nominal using r = i * m
• Use EFFECT function to find effective interest rate
13
Rate Of Return (ROR) Analysis
14
Calculating ROR
• Where two mutually exclusive alternatives will
provide the same benefit, ROR is performed using an
incremental rate of return (ROR) on the difference
between the alternatives.
• You cannot simply choose the higher IRR alternative.
Two-alternative Decision
situation
ROR MARR Choose higher-cost
alternative
15
The Minimum Attractive Rate of
Return (MARR)
• The MARR is a minimum return the
company will accept on the money it
invests
• The MARR is usually calculated by
financial analysts in the company and
provided to those who evaluate projects
• It is the same as the interest rate used for
Present Worth and Annual Worth analysis.
16
ROR on Alternatives With Equivalent Benefits
Example 7-5: Consider the lease vs. buy situation. MARR = 10%
• Leasco: Lease for five years for 3 annual payments of $1000 each
• Saleco: Purchase up front for $2783
• Both alternatives have a $1200/year benefit for 5 years
Cash flow - Cash flow - Cash flow -
Year alternative alternative alternative
A (Leaseco) B (Saleco) B-A