Sole Contention Econ Cards

Small businesses failures are happening at unprecedented levels Simon last month
Simon 23 [Ruth Simon, "Small Business Bankruptcies Rising at Worst Pace Since Pandemic", 10/01/2023, Wall Street Journal,
https://www.wsj.com/business/entrepreneurship/small-busines-bankruptcy-surge-8989e665] ||roy
Small-business bankruptcy filings are rising this year, a signal that increased interest rates, tighter
lending standards and higher operating costs are straining entrepreneurs . At the same time, some
government aid programs that helped entrepreneurs through the Covid-19 pandemic have ended. Brighthouse Green Home Cleaning in Nashville, Tenn.,
filed to reorganize its debt under federal bankruptcy law early this year. Demand for commercial and residential cleaning services rebounded slowly from
the pandemic, increases in labor costs have been difficult to pass on, and customers were slower to pay their bills, said owner Jason Adkins. “It was life or
death in terms of the survivability of the business,” said Adkins, who has 85 employees. “I don’t own a portfolio of businesses. I can’t pull from assets.”
The Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow inflation by raising interest rates have been particularly
painful for small businesses, which tend to operate with thinner profit margins and smaller
cash reserves than larger companies. The increased bankruptcies are coming from filings under Subchapter V, a newer provision
in federal bankruptcy code that makes it easier for financially stressed small businesses to restructure. Nearly 1,500 small businesses filed for Subchapter
V bankruptcy this year through Sept. 28, nearly as many as in all of 2022, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. Bankruptcy petitions are just
Small-business loan delinquencies and defaults have edged upward since June
one sign of financial stress.
2022 and are now above prepandemic averages, according to Equifax. An index tracking small-business owners’
confidence ticked down slightly in September, driven by heightened concerns about the economy,
according to a survey of more than 750 small businesses. Fifty-two percent of respondents believed that the
country is approaching or in a recession, said the survey by Vistage Worldwide, a business-coaching and peer-advisory firm.
Many small businesses came out of the pandemic in solid financial shape and are looking to grow. The share of business owners who expect revenue and
profits to increase in the next 12 months grew in September, as did the share of those planning to expand their workforce, the survey found. Still,
needed capital is more expensive to access and can be difficult to obtain. Small businesses have fewer
options for raising capital than bigger companies, which can issue stock or bonds, or go to private-
equity investors and other sources for funding, said Soneet Kapila, a bankruptcy trustee and president of the bankruptcy
institute. Seventy-three percent of small businesses reported that rising interest rates were having a negative impact on their business, according to a
survey of more than 1,500 small businesses conducted in late August and early September by Goldman Sachs.

Student debt makes small business formation impossible as Fullwiler et al. 18

Fullwiler et al. 18 [Scott Fullwiler is an Associate Professor of Economics at University of Missouri-Kansas
City. Febuary 2018. “MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF STUDENT DEBT CANCELLATION”. Levy Economics
Institute of Bard College. https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/rpr_2_6.pdf] // doobz + recut: savdharia
Starting a business requires access to capital and an appetite for risk—two characteristics that may be inhibited by high student debt levels.
Small businesses in particular tend to depend on financing from personal debt. Since student loan debt appears as negative net worth on
household balance sheets, borrowers
with high debt balances and monthly payments find it more difficult to
accumulate startup capital through saving or borrowing. As a result, the growth of student loan debt is associated with
reductions in small business formation. Recent research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia examined this relationship between the
growth in student loan debt and small business formation. Philadelphia Federal Reserve researchers Ambrose, Cordell, and Ma (2015) show
that student loan debt reduces an individual’s ability to save startup capital or access alternative forms of credit for business formation. The
authors estimate these trends at the county level over the period 2000–10, while accounting for county-level differences in demographic and
risk factors. During the period of study, student debt as a share of total personal debt rose across all counties, with an average rise of 4.7
percentage points (from 2.8 percent of total debt in 1999 to 7.5 percent in 2009) and a standard deviation of 3.3 percent. The authors estimate
a 14.4 percent decline in small business formation associated with an increase of one standard
deviation of relative student debt (that is, relative to total personal debt). These effects are strongest among the smallest-sized
category of business—those with one to four employees—where personal credit is presumed to be a larger portion of total business financing.

Debt forgiveness is crucial as small businesses stimulate economic growth Office of

Advocacy 19 finds
Office Of Advocacy19, "Small Businesses Generate 44 Percent of U.S. Economic Activity", SBA's Office of Advocacy, 1-30-2019,
https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent-of-u-s-economic-activity/, savdharia
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Small
businesses are the lifeblood of the U.S. economy: they create two-thirds of net
new jobs and drive U.S. innovation and competitiveness. A new report shows that they account for 44 percent of
U.S. economic activity. This is a significant contribution, however this overall share has declined gradually. U.S. gross
domestic product (GDP) is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. Across the
16 years from 1998 to 2014, the small business share of GDP has fallen from 48.0 percent to 43.5 percent. “This useful benchmark shows us
that small businesses continue to be big contributors to the U.S. economy,” Acting Chief Counsel for Advocacy Major L. Clark said. “While their
contribution has grown at a slower rate than that of large businesses, small businesses continue to be at the forefront of driving innovation,
jobs and economic growth.”

Luckily, forgiveness solves. Angell 22

Angell 22 [Melissa Angell, "Why Student-Loan Forgiveness Could Boost Entrepreneurs", 06/02/2022, Inc,
https://www.inc.com/melissa-angell/student-loan-forgiveness-biden-business-growth.html] ||roy

Small-business growth could get a boost if President Joe Biden has his way with student-loan forgiveness. Around a
third of small-business owners say that student-loan debt has hampered their ability to grow their companies,
according to a new survey from Capital One bank and the NextGen Chamber of Commerce, a business organization that helps entrepreneurs. The survey,
completed in partnership with decision intelligence company Morning Consult, polled 1,200 small-business owners and 300 auto-dealership owners in
late March. Biden has been a staunch advocate for student-loan forgiveness, with reports saying that he's weighing a proposal to shave $10,000 of
student debt for some borrowers. The White House may also limit forgiveness to those making $150,000 or less last year, or $300,000 for those who file
their taxes jointly, The Washington Post previously reported. The White House, however, has denied the report, with a spokesperson saying that "no
decisions have been made yet" over the plan. Approximately 44 million Americans owe roughly $1.7 trillion in student-loan debt, according to the
A student-loan forgiveness plan is a step
Education Data Initiative, an organization that collects data on the U.S. education system.
in the right direction to saving American entrepreneurship, according to NextGen's executive director, Eddie
Monroy. Loan forgiveness, he says, doesn't just ease the burden of starting or expanding a new business,
"but ultimately would provide greater access to wealth building for many Americans who have been saddled
with debt--especially women and minorities--helping to create a more inclusive economy." Student-loan payments
divert capital that could be used for other purposes, such as reinvesting in a growing business. The average federal student-loan debt clocks in at roughly
$37,000, though it's believed that figure climbs upwards to nearly $41,000 for private debt--and with rising college tuition costs each year, touch choices
often have to be made by aspiring entrepreneurs.

Small businesses kept the economy afloat this year. Dawkins 23

Jennifer Ortakales Dawkins, 1-25-2023. "Small businesses are saving the economy from a recession, for now," Business
Insider, accessed 2-11-2023, https://www.businessinsider.com/small-businesses-are-saving-the-economy-from-a-
recession-2023-1 //CW
Small businesses are saving the economy from a recessio n, for now While large companies like Goldman Sachs, Amazon, and
Salesforceare [are] cutting staff this year, private firms with fewer employees are still hiring. Additionally, layoffs overall in the

US are very low. Robust job numbers are one reason that we're not in a recession yet, as economists previously told Insider. The US added 223,000 jobs this past

December and the unemployment rate shrank from 3.6% in November to 3.5%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. And overall, there are lots of job
openings waiting to be filled: 10.5 million in November. Small businesses have seen their openings soar, compared to larger businesses, from where they stood before the pandemic. Bureau of
the number of openings in businesses with 1 to
Labor Statistics data on private-sector job openings show that
49 employees was 85% higher in November 2022 than in February 2020, much bigger than the 41%
increase for companies with at least 1,000 employees.

Absent growth, a recession is oncoming Bloomberg 23

Fortune23, "A recession is still likely—and coming soon. Here are 6 reasons why", 10-1-2023, https://fortune.com/2023/10/01/recession-still-likely-and-
coming-soon-6-reasons-why/, savdharia
That determination, by the National Bureau of Economic Research, typically isn’t made until several months after the recession actually began. But the NBER’s slump-dating committee identifies six indicators that weigh heavily in
the decision, including measures of income, employment, consumer spending and factory output. Using consensus forecasts for those key numbers, Bloomberg Economics built a model to mimic the committee’s decision-making

sometime next year, the NBER will declare

process in real time. It works fairly well to match past calls. What it says about the future: There’s a better-than-even chance that

that a US recession began in the closing months of 2023. In short: if you look at the gauges that matter most to America’s recession-deciders — and where
most analysts reckon they’re headed — a downturn is already in the cards . …And That’s Before These Shocks Hit That assessment is mostly based on forecasts delivered over the past few

weeks — which might not capture some new threats that are threatening to knock the economy off course . Among them: Auto Strike: The United Auto
Workers union has called a walkout at America’s Big Three auto firms, the first time they’ve all been targeted at the same time. It expanded the strike on Friday to encompass some 25,000 workers. The industry’s long supply chains
means stoppages can have an outsize impact. In 1998, a 54-day strike of 9,200 workers at GM triggered a 150,000 drop in employment.

The US cannot fight recessions like these in the long-term. Millsap 22 explains
Adam A. Millsap, 22, "Recession Fears Are Top Of Mind, But We Should Be More Worried About America’s Weak
Economic Growth," Forbes, 7-13-2022, https://www.forbes.com/sites/adammillsap/2022/07/13/recession-fears-
are-top-of-mind-but-we-should-be-more-worried-about-americas-weak-economic-growth/?sh=d5ce6da33473,
(RG)
New data show that inflation remains high—up 9.1% over the last 12 months—and economic growth is slowing, so naturally talk of
recession is filling the air. The ups and downs of the business cycle have real consequences, so concerns about a
looming recession are understandable. But over decades, economic growth, not the business cycle, determines
living standards. Unfortunately, economic growth is slowing in America, but our federalist system can help us grow again if we do not destroy it.
Economic growth makes countries richer and richer countries are better able to cope with the
fluctuations of the business cycle. Sadly, U.S. economic growth is waning. From 1960 to 1999, U.S. per capita GDP growth
was 2.4% per year, meaning living standards doubled roughly each generation. Since 2000, per capita growth has averaged 1.3% per year. Projections from
the Congressional Budget Office predict more slow growth, with real GDP growth rates below 2% for the next
10 years. Reversing this trend and increasing economic growth should be the priority of every U.S. policymaker.
Fortunately, America’s federalist system gives us a built-in advantage for generating sustained growth.

Oxfam impacts that recessions kill

Economic Crisis, xx, "100 people every minute pushed into poverty by economic crisis," Oxfam International, xx-xx-
xxxx, https://www.oxfam.org/fr/node/9875, (RG)
100 people every minute pushed into poverty by economic crisis. The G20 should take urgent action to
protect poor countries from economic crisis that is forcing 100 people-a-minute into poverty, Oxfam said today.
Developing countries across the globe are struggling to respond to the global rec ession
that continues to slash incomes, destroy jobs
and has helped push the total number of hungry people in the world above 1 billion. The economic crisis arrived
as poor countries were already struggling to cope high food prices and floods, droughts and food shortages linked to climate change.

Economic issues are coming because of loan payments starting again.

Nova 23 (Annie Nova --- a reporter on the personal finance team, covering education at CNBC,
“Student loan bills resume for 40 million Americans. How it could shake the economy,” 10-01-23,
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/01/how-the-restart-of-student-loan-payments-could-shake-the-
economy.html) //AL

The pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments ends Sunday, leaving as many as 40
million Americans on the hook for a new monthly bill they haven’t needed to make in more
than three years. Economists caution that the impact on households and the economy remains largely uncertain, as there is little precedent for borrowers getting such a long
break from their loan bills. But as the Biden administration ramps up repayment of the more than $1.7

trillion in federal student loan debt, retailers and lenders are bracing for a hit. American
households will get their first bills during an especially volatile period, with the highest
interest rates in decades, workers on strike across the country and a looming government
shutdown. “The economy will struggle in the fourth quarter, in meaningful part due to the end of the
student loan payment moratorium,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. ‘Additional pressure on already
strained budgets’ Financial services firm Jefferies is warning that “there could be a significant risk to consumer
spending ahead,” because of the resumption of student loan payments . It recently surveyed about 600 consumers with
student debt, finding that half of borrowers are “very concerned” about meeting all of their expenses.

Around 70% of borrowers plan to postpone big-ticket purchases come October , its poll found. Meanwhile,
many people with student debt plan to cut back their spending on clothing, travel and food.
 The Biden administration
“As we go into the holiday season, this will be an extra drag on retail spending,” said Brett House, a professor at Columbia Business School.

had hoped to ease the transition back to loan payments by forgiving up to $20,000 in student
debt for many borrowers, but the Supreme Court blocked that policy in June. President Joe
Biden is pursuing another path to cancel people’s debt, but it’s expected to be a lengthy
process. Scott Mushkin, founder and CEO of R5 Capital, a consumer research consulting firm, estimates that starting in October, around $7
billion to $8 billion per month will be reallocated to student loan payments. “It’s definitely a
challenge,” Mushkin said, pointing out that retailers that cater to educated consumers are most at risk. Macy's Herald
Square store in New York is shown on Aug. 21, 2023. Macy's, Inc. is likely to register both top and bottom-line declines from the respective year-ago in its second-quarter results on August 22.
(Photo by Eduardo Munoz/VIEWpress) Macy’s Herald Square store in New York is shown on Aug. 21, 2023. Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette mentioned student loans in the company’s earnings call in

there are some headwinds coming, particularly with student loan[s], that expiration
August. “I think

of the loan forgiveness,” Gennette said. And during Target’s most recent earnings call, CFO Michael Fiddelke said that “the upcoming
resumption of student loan repayments will put additional pressure on the already strained budgets
of tens of millions of households.” ‘The payment shocks will b e significant’ “The payment shocks will be significant”
for borrowers and lenders, said Liz Pagel, senior vice president and head of TransUnion’s consumer lending business. Many student loan
borrowers have taken on additional debt during the payment pause , according to a recent study by the credit reporting
company. Nearly a third of people with student debt put a balance on a new retail credit card over

the last three years, it found. Around 15% took out a personal loan. “These additional credit
products mean additional monthly payments, which may pose added challenges ,” Pagel said. The
typical student loan bill is around $350 a month, but at least 10% of borrowers have a
payment of over $700. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has also found that student loan borrowers have fallen
deeper into debt during the pandemic, with more than half of borrowers holding higher
monthly debt-related expenses than they did before the pause on bills began in March 2020.
More than 1 in 13 borrowers are currently behind on their other payment obligations , the CFPB says. “These
borrowers might be unable to make payments on their student loans if they are already
missing payments on their credit cards or auto loans ,” Kentia Elbaum, a spokesperson for the CFPB, said in a previous interview.

1 , Loan forgiveness is key to increase consumer spending

st

The Roosevelt Institute 22 (The Roosevelt Institute is a think tank, a student network, and the
nonprofit partner to the Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum that, together, are
learning from the past and working to redefine the future of the American economy, August 30, 2022,
“Unburdened: How Canceling Student Debt Can Boost Growth, Equity, and Innovation”,
https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/RI_UnburdenedCancellingStudentDebt_Fac
tSheet_202101.pdf) // JG
Unburdened: How Canceling Student Debt Can Boost Growth, Equity, and Innovation With skyrocketing tuition and shrinking economic
opportunities for young graduates, rising
student debt is a strain our fragile economy cannot afford.
Policymakers must act quickly to cancel student debt. Doing so would not only offer immediate
relief to borrowers but provide a much-needed boost to the economy. Student debt creates
decades of hardship for millions of American families while acting as a drag on the economy.
Student loans are one of the highest sources of debt for Americans —second only to mortgages. Across the country,
more than 40 million people collectively carry over $1.5 trillion in student loan debt. On average, student loan borrowers aged 18–39 spend
more than 20 percent of their monthly income on student loan payments, or $579 out of a monthly income of $2,689. These high monthly
payments lead to devastating financial precarity. Notably,
65 percent of student loan borrowers report having
less than $1,000 in their bank account, struggling to afford short-term expenses, and being
unable to save long-term. n Black students, in particular, bear the brunt of this debt burden. They borrow more often and in larger
amounts to attend school, and then graduate into a discriminatory job market that makes it more difficult to pay down those debts. Ninety
percent of Black students and 72 percent of Latinx students take out loans for college, but just 66 percent of white students do. One study
found that 20 years after starting college, the median white borrower’s debt has been reduced by 94 percent, while the median Black borrower
still owes 95 percent of their original balance. This
hardship creates immense problems for the wider economy,
holding back economic growth, increasing racial inequality, and slowing innovation and
entrepreneurship. Broad student debt cancellation can positively change the trajectory of borrowers’
lives. Canceling student debt provides an immediate financial boost : increasing borrowers’
freedom and mobility; allowing them to change jobs, pay down debts, or move ; and increasing
average yearly pay by $3,000 over a 10-year period. Canceling student loan debt could help with economic opportunities by making other
wealth-creating investments, such as homeownership, more feasible. Student debt has led to a 20 percent decline in homeownership among
young adults. Cancellation could help reverse this trend. Projections show that canceling $50,000 in student loan debt could
increase Black household wealth by up to 40 percent. Black young adults hold 10.4 percent less wealth than white young adults as a result of
student debt, fueling the racial wealth gap. Broad
student debt cancellation can stimulate the macroeconomy and
boost GDP. Freeing up funds through debt cancellation would allow millions of borrowers to spend
into the broader economy. Short-term consumption levels could be boosted by as much as 4
percent, increasing real GDP by between $86 billion and $108 billion over 10 years. n New
economic activity generated by debt cancellation would reduce the unemployment rate between 0.22 and 0.36 percentage points over the next
decade. n Debt cancellation could also boost entrepreneurship and small business creation, a driver of economic growth. The number of young
entrepreneurs is in steep decline, and the share of start-ups founded by millenials has been cut in half over the last 20 years. Of that age group,
50 percent reported that student loans affected their ability to start a business. In total, debt burdens resulted in an estimated two million
fewer businesses being formed between 2006 and 2015. Especially during the COVID-19 crisis, bold and immediate action is necessary and
readily available. A number of current legislative proposals to cancel student debt have broad support from lawmakers, activists, and
academics. Additionally, Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have called on President Biden to cancel up to $50,000
for all borrowers in his first months in office. Such
a move would be a quick stimulative action, immediately giving
money to millions while helping build a more robust and equitable economy going forward.

2 Loan forgiveness is key to raising GDP

nd

Banerjee 21(Asha Banerjee- “Ten Reasons to Cancel Student Loan Debt”, 01-2021.
https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED610484.pdf)//RG
The burden of student loan debt is not borne equally. Women hold over two-thirds of all outstanding debt.2 Black borrowers also have higher
average levels of debt and default.3 Systemic barriers, such as persistent discrimination in housing, employment, and access to educational
opportunities, have kept many Black households from accumulating and inheriting wealth. As a result, Black students are overrepresented at
forprofit institutions, many of which strand borrowers with astronomical levels of debt. Cancelling student debt can help close the racial wealth
gap, and studies show that cancelling $50,000 in student debt would alleviate the debt burden for nearly three in four Black households and
increase Black wealth by a third.4 3. Cancelling student debt is good for the economy Cancelling
student loan debt could
also have a powerful stimulus effect on the economy, which will be crucial as we look to build a sustainable
economic recovery. Research has shown that cancellation would boost GDP by billions of dollars and
add up to 1.5 million new jobs, reducing the unemployment rate. 5 Workers who are Black, Latinx,
immigrants, women, and those in industries paying low wages are still facing a terrible economic situation with high levels of unemployment. 6
Cancellation will help borrowers and the lagging economy, as well. 4. Cancellation is targeted and would benefit those who need it most
Student debt cancellation is a targeted, progressive policy that would benefit those struggling the most. While wealthier borrowers make larger
monthly payments outright, student debt as a share of income is higher for lower income borrowers.7 Additionally, partially due to sky-high
interest rates and misleading forbearance policies, most borrowers still owed more than half of what they borrowed for college even 12 years
after enrolling, with Black students being the sole group that owed more than what they borrowed after 12 years. 8 Therefore, lower income
borrowers, especially Black borrowers, would benefit immensely from debt cancellation.

Roosevelt institute in 2022 furthers that.

Roosevelt Institute 2022(The Roosevelt Institute is a think tank, a student network, and the
nonprofit partner to the Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum that, together, are
learning from the past and working to redefine the future of the American economy. “Unburdened: How
Canceling Student Debt Can Boost Growth, Equity, and Innovation”08-30-2022,
https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/RI_UnburdenedCancellingStudentDebt_Fac
tSheet_202101.pdf)//RG
Freeing up funds through debt cancellation would allow millions of borrowers to spend into the broader economy. Short-term
consumption levels could be boosted by as much as 4 percent, increasing real GDP by
between $86 billion and $108 billion over 10 years. New economic activity generated by debt
cancellation would reduce the unemployment rate between 0.22 and 0.36 percentage points
over the next decade. n Debt cancellation could also boost entrepreneurship and small business creation, a driver of economic
growth. The number of young entrepreneurs is in steep decline, and the share of start-ups founded by millenials has been cut in half over the
last 20 years. Of that age group, 50 percent reported that student loans affected their ability to start a business. In total, debt burdens resulted
in an estimated two million fewer businesses being formed between 2006 and 2015.

The impact is reducing poverty.

Citibeats 22( “The Relationship Between Poverty and Unemployment” 07-12-2022,
https://www.citibeats.com/center-for-knowledge/the-relationship-between-poverty-and-
unemployment )//RG

In fact, unemployment rate, median wages, and wage inequality are all significant
determinants of poverty, according to research from American nonprofit organization the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A 1% increase in unemployment yields a 0.4 to 0.7%
increase in poverty rates, and a 10% increase in minimum wage yields a 2% decrease in poverty rates,
it states. Productive, steady employment is often one of the only assets that people
experiencing poverty can leverage to improve well-being—making such
opportunities essential in poverty reduction and sustainable social and economic
development, the UN account continues.

Clark 2018 of Columbia

CE Clark. June 7, 2018. Columbia. ‘Poverty Kills More People Every Year Than Either of the Top Killers -- Heart Disease or Cancer’
https://soapboxie.com/social-issues/Poverty-Kills-More-People-than-either-cancer-or-heart-disease

Personally, I find it shocking and abhorrent that so many people are dying of poverty in this, the richest nation on the planet. Research funded
by the National Institutes of Health has been looking at the part social ills play in causing, and or contributing to death. Science Daily reports
that recent analysis of these studies found that about 4.5 per cent of all deaths in the United States are caused by poverty related deficiencies,
and that poverty is a contributing factor in still more deaths. Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health concurs with these findings.
more than
Deaths of all causes surpassed 2.5 million in 2011, the most recent period for which some statistics are available. That means
874,000 people died from poverty related issues in that year (Columbia University). That same year just fewer than
598,000 deaths were attributed to all types of heart disease. Cancer deaths for 2011 came to fewer than 575,000. Clearly poverty kills
more than either of these top killers (cancer and heart disease). The figure on deaths (874,000) was obtained from the Columbia
University Mailman School of Public Health website by adding all the figures for deaths caused by poverty related ills in 2011. It was not an
issue of doing the math, for anyone reading this and thinking along those lines, (see reference in the reference section).