DDP Boheco-I 2016-2025
DDP Boheco-I 2016-2025
DDP Boheco-I 2016-2025
6.1. RELOCATION OF 10-MVA DAMPAS SUBSTATION AND FEEDER-06 UPRATING & UPGRADING .................................................26
8.2. REPLACEMENT OF 15KV MAIN & SUB-FEEDER PROTECTION AND CONTROL .......................................................................34
9.4. REPLACEMENT OF INSTRUMENT TRANSFORMERS, ELECTRIC REVENUE METER AND METERING PANELS FOR FEEDER METERING ......37
Annex F BOHECO I’s Policy No. 7-84: Consumer’s Furnished Line ...........................................................................95
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 6-6 Sample Fragmented Projects Located Barangay Tabalong, Dauis ..................... 32
Figure 9-1 BOHECO I Fiber Optic Cable Communication Backbone Line ........................... 36
Figure 10-1 “Base Scenario”: Before User Initiated Line Construction is inexistent. ............ 41
Figure 10-2 Where 1st User Initiated Line Construction extends from existing facility. ......... 41
Figure 10-3 Where 2nd User Initiated Line Construction extends from the last user. ............ 42
Figure 10-4 Where 3rd User Initiated Line Construction extends from the last user. ............ 43
Figure 10-5 Where existing and new House connection are tapped to existing multiple-user
initiated Line Construction. .................................................................................................. 43
Figure 11-3: Historical, Forecasted, and Adjusted System Demand Forecast (kWh) ........... 49
Table 4-1 Forecasted Power Quality Performance of BOHECO I Distribution System ........ 11
Table 4-3: Fault Current Duties per Feeder of BOHECO I Distribution System ................... 13
Table 4-6 BOHECO I Reliability Performance Indices per substation for year 2015 ............ 16
Table 5-2: Percent Loading of Tawala, Panglao & Dampas Substation ............................... 20
Table 5-7: Technical & Efficiency Performance of Carmen & Dimiao Substation ................. 24
Table 6-2 Economic Load Reach of 13.2-kV Primary Distribution Line ................................ 27
Table 9-1 No. of Vehicles Used in Operation and Maintenance and Auxiliary Service ......... 35
Table 11-2: System Energy Forecast Validity Test Parameters and Result ......................... 48
Table 11-4: System Energy Forecast Validity Test Parameters and Result ......................... 50
Table 11-5: BOHECO I Energy Sales Forecast per Feeder (kWh) ...................................... 52
Table 11-8 : Forecasted Annual Number of Distribution Transformers Requirement per kVA
............................................................................................................................................ 57
Table 11-9 : No. of Customer Mathematical Forecasting Model per Customer Type ........... 57
Table 11-10 : No. of Consumer Forecast per Type Validity Test Parameters and Result .... 58
Table 11-11 : Forecasted No. of Customer Add-Ons per Customer Type ........................... 59
Table 11-13 : Average Economic Load Reach (13.2-kV Primary Distribution Line) ............. 63
Table 11-14 : Distribution Feeder Protection and Safety Development Project Cost ........... 64
To provide safe, reliable, dependable and least-cost electric service, and to help
enhance the economic condition of the people within its coverage area, Bohol I Electric
Cooperative was established on August 11, 1971 as a non-stock, non-profit, member-
owned electric cooperative. It aims to render the highest possible level of service to its
members-consumers throughout its coverage area.
Submarine Cable
It consistently maintains a single Figure 1-2: BOHECO I Sales per Customer Type
digit system loss and diligently complies
with the standards of the Philippine
Public Bldg & Street Lights
Distribution Code where none of the Industrial
9.04%
0.03%
Commercial
customers served have voltages higher or
4.13%
lower than 10% of the nominal 230 Volts.
BOHECO I’s voltage unbalances in its
three-phase lines are less than 2.5%. Its
System Average Interruption Frequency
Index (SAIFI) is at 7.3 interruptions per
customer-year and its System Average
Residential
Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) is only 86.79%
13.7 hours per customer-year.
Figure 1-3: Customer Count per Customer Type
In that same year, BOHECO I had
a total energy sales of 170 GWh at an average system rate of 7.54 PhP/kWh.
Bohol is one of the major tourist destinations in the country, thus making
tourism industry one of the major economic drivers in the franchised area of BOHECO I.
Statistical Data from year 2011 to 2015 show that the demand for power (kW) and
energy (kWh) were increasing as shown in the tables below.
In the last five years, BOHECO I has maintained a single digit systems loss as
shown in Figure 1-4. BOHECO I is mandated to provide the least possible cost of power
to its customers, therefore it strives to maintain its efficiency at the highest optimal level.
BOHECO I’s efficiency performance for the past years has always been way
below the NEA’s thirteen percent (13.0%) established cap level of losses for electric
cooperatives (shown in Figure 1-4). The Electric Cooperative is committed to maintain a
single digit systems loss in the forthcoming years.
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2. Forecasting
Demand, Sales and Consumers
4. Formulation of Alternatives
Generate Project Ideas (Solution to Problems)
5. Technical Evaluation
Short Circuit, Load Flow, Reliability and Systems Loss Analysis
6. Economic Evaluation
Least Cost, Net Present Value and Benefit/Cost Analysis
BOHECO I employs historical data and trend analysis using regression models to
predict future energy consumption and peak demand. We apply scientific and statistical
methods in validating our forecasting models using internationally accepted standards
and criteria. Figure 2-2 shows the flowchart describing our forecasting methodology and
the technical criteria used.
Historical Data
Formulate Load
Forecasting Model
Trend Analysis
-Historical Demand
MAPE≤3.0%
R2 closer to 1.0
Test for Adjusted R2 closer to 1.0
Validity & P Value < 0.1
Accuracy t Statistics <-2, > 2
FORECAST
The historical data used in forecasting the system energy were based on the
annual registered energy in the BOHECO I metering per feeder.
350
Millions
50 2020 186,166,940
0
2025 226,234,169
2016
2020
2037
2015
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2038
2039
2040
2030 263,958,571
The forecasted output (see Annex A) was used in evaluating the system’s
technical performance, loading and capacity for the next five years. The need for
systems capacity augmentation projects and capital-intensive projects were identified
through this. The detailed forecasted data per feeders are shown in Annex B-2.
The forecasted system demand (kW) presented in Annex B-3 is an integral part in
system capacity analysis where it measures whether the installed capacity is sufficient to
cater to the projected requirement in each substation. Figure 3-2 below shows the 25-
year forecasted demand of BOHECO I. The detailed forecasted data per feeder are
shown in Annex B-3.
50 2017 34,023
40 2018 35,771
30 2019 37,513
20 2020 39,245
10 2025 47,653
0 2030 55,573
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2035 63,020
Year 2040 70,047
The forecast of number of customers plays a vital role in the planning process
because this determines future revenue that will cover capital expenditure and operating
costs and additional expenses for meters and other equipment. Figure 3-3 below shows
the forecasted number of customers, add-ons per customer type with the total number of
customers in the base year 2015.
300,000 300,000
229,034
218,977
209,411
200,334
191,746
183,647
250,000 250,000
176,037
168,914
162,278
156,126
150,459
145,271
140,559
136,317
No. of Customers
200,000 200,000
150,000 150,000
100,000 100,000
50,000 50,000
- -
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
RM BE CS CL PB ST IN
Rated Peak
Percent Power Load
Substation Capacity Demand
Loading Factor Factor
(MVA) (MW)
Maca-as 10 7.54 77% 98% 59.85%
Dampas 10 5.6 59% 95% 65.62%
Carmen 5 3.8 76% 100% 52.25%
Loay 10 5.0 50% 100% 54.68%
Maribojoc 5 3.3 70% 95% 55.12%
Panglao 10 5.9 60% 99% 63.07%
Catagbacan 5
Total 55 28.3 51% 100% 62.23%
Under Section 3.2.1 of the Philippine Distribution Code (PDC), power quality is
defined as the quality of the voltage, including its frequency and the resulting current,
which are measured in the Distribution System during normal conditions. Section 3.2.3.3
states that the nominal voltage of the system should not be less than 90% or 110%
above its nominal voltage.
Shown in Table 4-2 below is the NGCP Fault Data used, together with our
distribution system’s line and transformer models, in the calculation of short circuit
currents in the distribution system.
Tables 4-4 and 4-5 below show the assessment of duties and adequacy of the
protective devices installed in BOHECO I Distribution Substation and Feeder system. A
10% safety margin for all installed protective device in the system was adopted in the
evaluation. These tables show that the installed protection equipment in each feeder
have sufficient margin of safety and that the setting of the down-line recloser before the
location of the minimum fault per feeder is sufficient enough to protect the system from
the said fault current. Single line diagrams of the representation of the minimum faults of
all feeders of the distribution system are shown in Annex F-1.
Table 4-3: Fault Current Duties per Feeder of BOHECO I Distribution System
Margin of
Protections Maximum Remarks (10%
Safety 13.2KV
Substaion Feeder Name Short Ckt. Fault @ Zf = Margin of
Sec.
Rating (AIC) 0Ω (Amp) Safety)
Protection
Feeder-01 12,500 2,243 557% Safe
Feeder-02 12,500 3,376 370% Safe
Feeder-03 12,500 3,323 376% Safe
Feeder-12 12,500 4,327 289% Safe
Feeder-04 12,500 2,927 427% Safe
Feeder-05 12,500 2,927 427% Safe
Feeder-06 12,500 4,344 288% Safe
Feeder-07 12,500 2,023 618% Safe
Feeder-08 12,500 3,075 406% Safe
Feeder-13 12,500 2,038 613% Safe
Feeder-09 12,500 2,932 426% Safe
Feeder-10 12,500 3,421 365% Safe
Feeder-11 12,500 3,414 366% Safe
Next Down-Line
Feeder Minimum Fault
Recloser
Feeder Protection
Substation Pick-Up
Name Pick-Up Bus Fault
Current Location
Setting Location Current
Setting
F01-87-40-9-7K-
Feeder-01 176 35 147
13
Feeder-02 160 50 F02-101 142 F02-251-32B-19A
F03-55-71B-28-6-
Feeder-03 160 143
45C
Feeder-12 50 - - 177 F12-38-74
Feeder-04 300 25 F04-3-5 187 F04-3-82-10
Feeder-05 130 - - 154 F05-28-31-22
Feeder-06 130 25 F06-81 137 F06-237
Feeder-07 60 50 F07-191 130 F07-109-88-20
Feeder-08 75 50 F08-445 133 F08-537-152-36
F13-352-
Feeder-13 52 25 138 F13-352-57-47B-8
7
Feeder-09 96 30 F09-327 134 F09-411-74-6
Feeder-10 112 - - 175 F10-176-73-15
Feeder-11 40 35 F11-100 142 F11-175-95-3
Feeder-15 35 - - 125 F15-231-140-63R
Feeder-16 125 50 F16-510 163 F16-25-20-19-18-5
Feeder-17 72 - - 170 F17-333-35
Reliability performance criteria and targets are essential to strategic planning and
these are currently being developed at BOHECO I. After several reviews and public
consultations (pub-con) of the Distribution Management Committee (DMC) together with
other relevant sectors, an established level of performance in terms of reliability of
electric service—currently measured through SAIFI, MAIFI and SAIDI were released.
Table 4-6 below shows the minimum required levels of reliability as established by DMC.
In the last few years, the ERC, through its technical armthe DMC, established a
cap of the reliability performance indices. The pro-consumer commitment of the
ERCDMC provides reliability goals for the electric cooperatives to attain.
Table 4-6 BOHECO I Reliability Performance Indices per substation for year 2015
The indices shown in Table 4-8 indicate that BOHECO I efficiently delivers electric
service which is above and beyond the minimum regulatory standards established by the
ERC’s DMC. Even with this very good level of reliability BOHECO I continues to improve
its services as it reaches the optimal level of reliability of service to the end-users. Power
system reliability improvement will be an attribute to power quality improvement related
projects.
Technical and non-technical losses incurred in the delivery of electrical power and
energy delivered to consumers is a cost that cannot be ignored. It is the responsibility of
the DU to reduce system loss as this is also paid for by the consumers. Also, losses
Based on the Philippine Distribution Code (PDC) article 9.1.1.1, System Loss
must be segregated into two (2) components: Technical loss and Non-Technical Loss.
The segregated systems loss will help identify areas in need of improvement and will
help the DU come up with an effective system loss reduction program. Figure 4-1 below
shows the segregated system loss by component of the BOHECO I Distribution System.
4.51%
7.68% 43.45% S/S Power Transformer Loss
0.19%
Primary Distribution Line Loss
2.22%
Primary Service Drop Loss
System loss is mainly due to primary distribution line loss and distribution
transformer no load loss. System loss management is an ongoing consideration in the
planning, design, operation, purchase, upgrading and replacement of networks’
distribution facilities and equipment.
Proposed
Proposed
Tawala
Bolod
Substation
Substation
Proposed 15MVA
Bolod Substation
Bolod, Panglao
Capacity Analysis
The proposed Bolod substation will ease the loading of the Panglao, the Dampas
and the Loay Substations, as shown in Table 5-2, through optimal system
reconfiguration.
The Tawala substation will not just augment the existing capacity of BOHECO I
but will also improve its system efficiency and uphold technical performance measured
by the quality of power delivery as shown in Table 5-3 below.
Bolod SS Panglao SS
Power Quality Systems Loss Power Quality Systems Loss
YEAR
Min. % Voltage Min. % Voltage
(kwhr) % (kwhr) %
Voltage Unbalance Voltage Unbalance
2018 0.9315 0.90% 63.91 1.08% 0.9614 1.28% 27 1.08%
2019 0.9296 0.96% 69.38 1.15% 0.959 1.34% 30.07 1.15%
2020 0.9231 1.02% 79.42 1.21% 0.9566 1.40% 33.36 1.21%
2025 0.9058 1.37% 104.23 1.40% 0.9469 1.64% 43.94 1.40%
No. of
Substation
Substations Present Worth Ranking
Capacity Used
Added
5 MVA 5 3
129,262,932.78
10 MVA 3 2
103,935,853.96
15 MVA 2 1
95,051,629.10
25 MVA 2 4
142,522,204.10
Table 5-4 above indicates that an expansion with an increment of 15-MVA is the
most economical for Panglao Island which is categorized as a fast developing urbanized
area.
Based on the forecasts, the Carmen substation will be 84% loaded by the year
2018 as shown in Table 5-5. Because of this, an additional capacity must be added to
ease the projected capacity problem of Carmen Substation.
Demand
2,701 3,232 3,507 3,782 4,058 4,333 5,683 7,980 9,232
(kW)
%
60% 72% 78% 84% 90% 96% 126% 177% 205%
Loading
Figure 5-3 below shows the load density map of rural areas including the
municipalities of Carmen, Batuan, Bilar and Sagbayan which are currently being supplied
through the Carmen substation. It is then recommended that the substation be located at
the load center.
Capacity Analysis
Uprating the existing 5-MVA Carmen substation into 10-MVA will address the
capacity problem in the next fifteen (15) years. But this will cause the quality of power
delivered by one of its feeders (Feeder-08) to drop below ninety percent (90%) of its
nominal voltage of 230-Volts. As such, the existing 5-MVA substation will be installed at
Brgy. Luyo, Dimiao, Bohol as shown by Figure 5-3.
With the installation of the Dimiao substation on 2022, the 50-km kilometer over-
extended primary distribution line of Feeder-08 will be shortened at its economic load
reach of twenty-kilometer (20 km) radius for a 13.2-kV Distribution System.
1
An indicative project for the year 2022, this will address projected capacity and power quality
problem of Carmen substation and Feeder-08 of Carmen substation respectively.
Uprating of Carmen substation will not just augment the existing capacity of
BOHECO I but will also improve its system efficiency and uphold technical performance
measured by the quality of power delivery as shown in Table 5-7 below.
Table 5-7: Technical & Efficiency Performance of Carmen & Dimiao Substation
No. of
Substation Present Worth of
Substations Ranking
Capacity Used Expansion
Added
5 MVA 3 2
86,214,841.92
10 MVA 2 1
78,206,139.37
Table 5-8 above indicates that a capacity expansion pattern with an increment of
10-MVA is the most economical for the rural areas under the coverage of BOHECO I
which are categorized as developing urbanized areas.
As shown again in Table 5-8 above, the capacity expansion pattern analysis
includes its economic feasibility, thus it already represents the economic evaluation in
selecting either 5-MVA or 10-MVA to address the capacity problem of Carmen substation
in the next thirty (30) years.
The proposal to uproot the Dampas substation from Dampas District in Tagbilaran
City and its relocation to Brgy. Guiwanon, Baclayon includes the construction of three-
phase 13.2-kV primary distribution lines that will connect the proposed new substation
location to the municipality of Corella as shown in Figure 6-1 below. In addition, uprating
of the two-phase Corella—Sikatuna Primary Distribution Backbone Line is associated
with this proposal.
The primary distribution line of Feeder-06 shown in Figure 6-1 traverses the city of
Tagbilaran which is not part of BOHECO I’s franchised coverage area. Also, Right-Of-
Way procurement has been deemed difficult and expensive, thus making it problematic
to operate, maintain and develop the necessary facilities to ensure reliability and quality
of electric service. As per technical performance assessment of Feeder-06, the minimum
calculated quality of power is below ninety percent (90%) of its nominal voltage. An
improved power quality is foreseen with the implementation of the project as shown in
Table 6-1.
The proposed project will form part of the existing backbone line of Feeder-16,
therefore, with an initial load of 1,600-kW, a 4/0-ACSR is the most economical size to be
used to address the voltage unbalance. Table 6-3 below shows the technical
performance assessment with the implementation of the project.
% Voltage
YEAR Min Voltage Loss (kWhr) % Loss
Unbalance
2016 0.9155 0.61% 70.52 3.77%
2017 0.9121 0.62% 76.49 3.92%
2018 0.9082 0.68% 82.72 4.07%
2019 0.9045 0.74% 89.09 4.21%
2020 0.9008 0.80% 95.45 4.35%
Relative to the uprooting and relocation of the Dampas substation, part of the
existing Feeder-06, the primary distribution backbone line traversing Tagbilaran City will
be de-energized and retired. Consequently, its probability to be supplied through an
adjacent substation (presently Maribojoc SS) will be omitted, thus a reliable power
supply is at risk. Therefore, a tie-up primary distribution line from its strategically
adjoining substation will eliminate that risk.
Through line sizing economics, a 4/0-AWG ACSR is the most economical size for
an initial load of 1,600-kW (F06) with an economic load reach of 16.0-km. Figure 6-4
below shows the geographical presentation of the proposed project.
Community development and load growth are often associated with eventual
power quality problems. Therefore, upgrading of the existing distribution network is
essential to accommodate forecasted load growth and resolve power quality problems.
Since this entails direct connection to the distribution network, installation of Open and
Under-built Secondary line is needed.
The length of line for each type of project is based on a five-year historical
accomplishment of BOHECO I as shown in Table 6-4 below.
W E
LEG END
1 Ø PR IM AR Y LI NE
S E C ON D A RY LINE
P OLE
L IF T POLE
T RA NS FORMER
H OU S E C ONNECTION
R OAD
The sample project was identified through load flow analysis and validated thru
ocular inspection. The proposal is to rehabilitate and upgrade #6-AWG Duplex Wire that
were used as secondary lines, to #4 AWG Primary Line #2 AWG Secondary Line and
create a new transformer section. A summary of test results is shown in Table 6-5 below.
As shown above, the system efficiency and power quality are improved through
rehabilitation and upgrading of over-extended secondary lines. In addition, uprating of
existing secondary distribution system, augments network capacity, improves reliability
and safety.
The 69kV Protection, Control & Transformer Monitoring equipment of the Carmen,
Maribojoc and Dampas Substations are proposed to be replaced. The existing
refurbished & oil-insulated three phase power circuit breakers in these substations were
determined to have already served their useful economic life, thus the need for
replacement.
The existing feeder protection of the Maca-as, Carmen, Dampas, and Maribojoc
Substations are oil type refurbished circuit reclosers which were identified to have served
their useful economic life. These existing units had been in service for more than fifty
years. The breaker contacts are already deteriorated thereby a failure in its closing and
opening mechanism. This causes nuisance tripping and reclosing of the feeders.
Replacement of the said units thus require immediate attention. The Single Line
Diagrams of the proposed replacement are shown in Annex F-2.
The feeder recloser bypass switch are necessary equipment at the substation
feeders that will help minimize power interruption during feeder protection maintenance
works. The Single Line Diagrams of the proposed replacement are shown in Annex F-2.
Non-network assets are logistics, tools, and equipment not directly used for the
delivery of power to consumers but are nonetheless essential in providing services and
systems that facilitate prompt response to the different needs of customers.
Based on the historical data, a properly maintained vehicle used in daily activities
is projected to have a useful economic life of ten (10) years. Table 9-1 below shows the
total number of vehicles used in BOHECO I’s delivery of electric service and its projected
number of annual replacement.
Table 9-1 No. of Vehicles Used in Operation and Maintenance and Auxiliary Service
In 2017 and 2018, the Sagasa and the Tawala substations will be added to the
distribution network respectively. Together with the fiber optic network communications,
this will be implemented as the 3rd phase of BOHECO I SCADA system and substation
automation.
Software maintenance is also essential for the timely upgrading and technical
support for existing technical simulation software programs that BOHECO I’s engineers
use. It is widely known that every year software programs are continuously being
upgraded to improve the quality and efficiency of these software tools. To cope with
these upgrades, BOHECO I has included the cost of software maintenance and support
in its capital expenditure program.
Having the correct tension stringing equipment for the construction and
maintenance of electrical distribution lines helps ensure the project will go as planned
and meet deadlines as part of the EC’s prompt services to its member-consumers. It is
also important that distribution lines meet the tension stringing requirements based on
established standards.
The multiple protection function of today’s protection relay systems requires a new
level of sophisticated hardware and software testing equipment to completely simulate
and analyze the operation of the unit in a "real life" situation. Periodic relay testing is, first
and foremost, preventive maintenance. Thus, procedures and records should be
designed with preventive maintenance as the guide. The tests themselves will reveal
failures which would have prevented the relay from performing when called upon to
operate. On the other hand, properly maintained records will reveal trends which could
lead to such failures
In case there will be additional users in that service facility, Policy No. 7-84 still
applies, since the policy has a provision for a multi-user sharing of the facility and the
cost.
Justification. The Distribution and Open Access Rules (DSOAR) which took effect
on February 17, 2006 has a provision for refund (Article 2.6.2 Refund) of amounts paid
for the extension of Distribution connection assets beyond the EC’s standard connection
facilities (Article 2.7.10 Non-Standard Connection) and for non-residential, it is treated as
Contribution In Aid of Construction (CIAC) which is shared (Article 2.7.10 Proportionate
Sharing of Line Extensions) with succeeding non-residential users.
Figure 10-1 “Base Scenario”: Before User Initiated Line Construction is inexistent.
Figure 10-2 Where 1st User Initiated Line Construction extends from existing
facility.
Figure 10-5 Where existing and new House connection are tapped to existing multiple-
user initiated Line Construction.
Below is the list of user-initiated projects where the costs are to be refunded by
the EC.
No
Project Description Location Cost 1st User
.
3Ø Primary Line Cambaquiz, Cabilao Cabilao Beach Club c/o
1 234,854.37
Construction Is., Loon Regin Peñaranda
1Ø Primary Line
19 Brgy. Totlan, Dauis 122,099.71 Ryan Sigue
Construction
To minimize the impact on BOHECO I’s cash flow, the total amount of PhP
8,581,441.00 will be equally distributed in three years (CY 2018-2020).
Table 11-2: System Energy Forecast Validity Test Parameters and Result
The historical data used in forecasting the system energy were based on the
annual registered energy in the BOHECO I metering per feeder.
2027
2034
2041
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2036 396,290,003
Figure 11-1: BOHECO I System Energy Forecast
2041 440,169,752
2018 37,861
60
2019 40,531
50
40 2020 43,165
30 2021 45,756
20 2026 57,969
10 2031 68,990
0 2036 78,991
2016
2023
2039
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2040
2041
2041 88,146
Forecast Historical
500
450
ENERGY ( GIGA-WATT-HOUR)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Figure 11-3: Historical, Forecasted, and Adjusted System Demand Forecast (kWh)
The forecasted energy of its feeder is adjusted with the system energy as
shown in Equation below.
Equation 2:
𝑛
𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦𝑖
𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑑 = 𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦𝑖 × ∑
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟=𝑖 × 8760
𝑖=1
Table 11-4: System Energy Forecast Validity Test Parameters and Result
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
F01 12,499,824 13,152,398 13,775,232 14,369,233 14,936,023 15,477,484 15,995,531 16,492,001 16,968,601 17,426,894 17,868,298 18,294,094 18,705,434 19,103,357 19,488,799
F02 9,839,241 10,465,413 11,080,890 11,683,456 12,272,117 12,846,578 13,406,946 13,953,553 14,486,855 15,007,370 15,515,639 16,012,207 16,497,604 16,972,344 17,436,917
F03 769,356 814,184 856,638 896,812 934,847 970,897 1,005,117 1,037,655 1,068,647 1,098,220 1,126,485 1,153,546 1,179,496 1,204,416 1,228,383
F04 8,954,429 9,466,447 9,959,113 10,432,560 10,887,539 11,325,070 11,746,265 12,152,235 12,544,041 12,922,675 13,289,053 13,644,013 13,988,319 14,322,666 14,647,690
F05 9,954,192 10,914,592 11,873,048 12,824,150 13,764,431 14,691,704 15,604,633 16,502,454 17,384,799 18,251,569 19,102,849 19,938,848 20,759,862 21,566,241 22,358,369
F06 12,429,184 13,342,957 14,214,060 15,043,689 15,833,914 16,587,166 17,305,964 17,992,772 18,649,921 19,279,580 19,883,748 20,464,253 21,022,762 21,560,794 22,079,733
F07 5,330,976 5,755,916 6,177,389 6,593,361 7,002,650 7,404,602 7,798,895 8,185,422 8,564,212 8,935,382 9,299,104 9,655,584 10,005,047 10,347,725 10,683,856
F08 8,529,985 9,231,398 9,916,440 10,583,907 11,233,471 11,865,311 12,479,897 13,077,852 13,659,877 14,226,702 14,779,053 15,317,637 15,843,135 16,356,192 16,857,417
F09 6,083,468 6,678,085 7,284,206 7,896,595 8,511,519 9,126,287 9,738,937 10,348,037 10,952,543 11,551,696 12,144,954 12,731,935 13,312,382 13,886,131 14,453,092
F10 6,143,746 6,470,276 6,788,378 7,097,292 7,396,883 7,687,341 7,969,016 8,242,332 8,507,737 8,765,678 9,016,585 9,260,863 9,498,894 9,731,029 9,957,598
F11 5,613,451 6,009,419 6,399,854 6,782,616 7,156,564 7,521,160 7,876,232 8,221,834 8,558,158 8,885,475 9,204,101 9,514,377 9,816,648 10,111,259 10,398,546
F12 8,588,894 9,258,325 9,921,756 10,576,061 11,219,447 11,850,949 12,470,116 13,076,825 13,671,163 14,253,347 14,823,676 15,382,497 15,930,183 16,467,118 16,993,688
F13 5,088,356 5,470,108 5,834,215 6,181,156 6,511,770 6,827,050 7,128,027 7,415,712 7,691,066 7,954,982 8,208,285 8,451,731 8,686,009 8,911,748 9,129,521
F15 2,330,847 2,428,118 2,519,077 2,604,074 2,683,571 2,758,054 2,827,987 2,893,803 2,955,891 3,014,601 3,070,241 3,123,088 3,173,386 3,221,352 3,267,177
F16 8,621,336 9,366,593 10,101,672 10,823,939 11,531,974 12,225,112 12,903,157 13,566,208 14,214,548 14,848,569 15,468,726 16,075,508 16,669,416 17,250,951 17,820,603
F17 1,170,439 1,221,775 1,270,889 1,317,809 1,362,644 1,405,530 1,446,613 1,486,035 1,523,928 1,560,416 1,595,607 1,629,602 1,662,490 1,694,352 1,725,259
F19 9,486,588 10,836,882 12,256,986 13,727,599 15,234,030 16,764,990 18,311,742 19,867,481 21,426,888 22,985,793 24,540,920 26,089,693 27,630,095 29,160,548 30,679,825
F20 39,442,004 41,331,735 43,141,334 44,870,144 46,520,842 48,097,628 49,605,265 51,048,593 52,432,278 53,760,695 55,037,888 56,267,557 57,453,074 58,597,505 59,703,635
F21 3,547,366 3,708,041 3,862,012 4,009,324 4,150,272 4,285,255 4,414,700 4,539,028 4,658,637 4,773,892 4,885,127 4,992,642 5,096,711 5,197,578 5,295,465
F22 6,514,908 7,475,845 8,473,825 9,494,562 10,527,726 11,565,781 12,603,202 13,635,928 14,660,983 15,676,197 16,680,003 17,671,293 18,649,303 19,613,535 20,563,693
F23 2,489,767 2,801,255 3,114,192 3,426,534 3,736,877 4,044,263 4,348,042 4,647,784 4,943,215 5,234,176 5,520,585 5,802,422 6,079,708 6,352,494 6,620,850
F24 864,133 1,005,843 1,158,276 1,318,825 1,485,475 1,656,653 1,831,122 2,007,902 2,186,216 2,365,440 2,545,077 2,724,725 2,904,064 3,082,833 3,260,824
F25 4,312,994 4,564,297 4,802,293 5,027,510 5,240,732 5,442,828 5,634,665 5,817,072 5,990,816 6,156,598 6,315,054 6,466,758 6,612,229 6,751,933 6,886,290
F26 3,707,644 3,962,305 4,208,137 4,445,008 4,673,118 4,892,830 5,104,585 5,308,847 5,506,075 5,696,713 5,881,177 6,059,857 6,233,112 6,401,275 6,564,651
Total 182,313,132 195,732,208 208,989,911 222,026,215 234,808,438 247,320,522 259,556,654 271,517,365 283,207,097 294,632,660 305,802,236 316,724,731 327,409,361 337,865,375 348,101,881
The forecasted system demand (in kW) was derived in a global approach as shown in
Equation 3. It is the quotient of the forecasted energy to the product of the Load Factor and
the total number of hours in a year, which is 8,760 Hrs.
𝑛
𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦𝑖
𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 = ∑
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟=𝑖 × 8760
𝑖=1
Where; i=Feeder No. (i.e., F01, F02, etc…); n=total number of feeders
Forecast Historical
100000
90000
80000
70000
DEMAND (KILO-WATTS)
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2014
2021
2029
2036
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
The forecasted output was used in evaluating the system’s technical performance,
loading and capacity for the next five years. Through this, the need for systems capacity
augmentation projects and capital-intensive projects were identified.
The forecasted demand per substation was derived through the same process. It is
the sum of the individual forecasted demand per feeder obtained through Equation 4. The
Detailed forecasted data per feeders are shown in Annex “B”.
𝑛
𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑖
𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = ∑
𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖 × 8760
𝑖=1
Where:
n = no. of feeders in a substation
L.F. = load factor of a given feeder
i = feeders number (i.e. F01, F02, F03, etc…)
A constant load factor is considered in Equation 4 throughout the next thirty (30)
years. It is presumed to be constant based on its historical trend for the past years. Table
below shows the forecasted demand per substation including the off-grid customers and
industrial customer directly tapped to the 69-kV grid, the PSIC.
2018 6,812 7,184 4,647 3,882 3,500 8,634 1,110 2,091 331 37,861
2019 7,206 7,660 4,982 4,158 3,730 9,331 1,255 2,210 362 40,531
2020 7,589 8,121 5,307 4,432 3,954 10,035 1,404 2,324 393 43,165
2021 7,961 8,567 5,624 4,702 4,172 10,743 1,554 2,432 423 45,756
2022 8,323 9,000 5,932 4,970 4,384 11,450 1,705 2,536 453 48,298
2023 8,674 9,419 6,230 5,233 4,590 12,154 1,857 2,635 482 50,791
2024 9,015 9,824 6,521 5,493 4,791 12,853 2,007 2,730 511 53,234
10,21
2025 9,347 6,803 5,748 4,986 13,547 2,157 2,822 540 55,626
8
10,59
2026 9,669 7,078 5,998 5,177 14,234 2,305 2,909 568 57,969
9
10,97
2027 9,984 7,345 6,244 5,362 14,913 2,452 2,994 595 60,264
0
11,33
2028 10,290 7,605 6,486 5,543 15,585 2,598 3,075 622 62,512
0
11,68
2029 10,588 7,859 6,724 5,720 16,249 2,742 3,153 648 64,714
0
12,02
2030 10,879 8,106 6,958 5,892 16,904 2,883 3,229 674 66,873
1
12,35
2031 11,163 8,347 7,187 6,061 17,551 3,023 3,303 699 68,990
4
LOAD
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
FACTOR
F01 0.652379 2,345 2,467 2,584 2,696 2,802 2,904 3,001 3,094 3,183 3,269
F02 0.595859 2,235 2,377 2,517 2,654 2,788 2,918 3,045 3,170 3,291 3,409
F03 0.498428 188 199 209 219 228 237 245 253 261 268
F04 0.659991 2,654 2,806 2,952 3,092 3,227 3,357 3,481 3,602 3,718 3,830
F05 0.627835 1,778 1,949 2,121 2,290 2,458 2,624 2,787 2,947 3,105 3,260
F06 0.70573 2,262 2,429 2,587 2,738 2,882 3,019 3,150 3,275 3,395 3,509
F07 0.260724 1,304 1,408 1,511 1,613 1,713 1,811 1,908 2,002 2,095 2,186
F08 0.610147 1,929 2,088 2,243 2,394 2,541 2,684 2,823 2,958 3,089 3,218
F09 0.634874 1,413 1,551 1,692 1,835 1,977 2,120 2,263 2,404 2,544 2,684
F10 0.480465 1,011 1,065 1,118 1,168 1,218 1,266 1,312 1,357 1,401 1,443
F11 0.52456 1,182 1,266 1,348 1,429 1,507 1,584 1,659 1,732 1,802 1,871
F12 0.604634 1,641 1,769 1,896 2,021 2,144 2,264 2,383 2,498 2,612 2,723
F13 0.551439 1,071 1,151 1,228 1,301 1,370 1,437 1,500 1,561 1,619 1,674
F15 0.647221 566 590 612 633 652 670 687 703 718 733
F16 0.571453 2,171 2,359 2,544 2,726 2,905 3,079 3,250 3,417 3,580 3,740
F17 0.571453 528 551 573 595 615 634 653 670 688 704
F19 0.571453 3,212 3,670 4,151 4,649 5,159 5,677 6,201 6,728 7,256 7,784
F20 0.684517 4,258 4,462 4,657 4,844 5,022 5,192 5,355 5,511 5,660 5,804
F21 0.838506 480 502 523 543 562 580 598 615 631 646
F22 0.571453 635 729 826 926 1,027 1,128 1,229 1,330 1,430 1,529
F23 0.571453 220 248 276 303 331 358 385 411 437 463
F24 0.571453 114 133 153 175 197 219 243 266 290 313
F25 0.498428 1,052 1,113 1,171 1,226 1,278 1,327 1,374 1,418 1,461 1,501
F26 0.571453 915 978 1,039 1,098 1,154 1,209 1,261 1,312 1,361 1,408
Total 0.676530 35,167 37,861 40,531 43,165 45,756 48,298 50,791 53,234 55,626 57,969
• Divide the Product by the Rated kVA (15kVA, 25kVA, 37.5kVA, 50kVA,
4. 75kVA, 100kVA & 167kVA)
Where:
The number of customers forecast played a vital role in the planning process because
this entails additional revenue and expenses in which the viability of the electric utility will be
measured. Through all available input data, the following mathematical models represents
the historical trend of each customer type that passes all the forecasting parameters and
criteria being set.
Table 11-9 : No. of Customer Mathematical Forecasting Model per Customer Type
Table 11-10 : No. of Consumer Forecast per Type Validity Test Parameters and Result
Table 11-11 shows the forecasted number of customer add-ons per customer type
with the total number of customers in the base year 2016.
SAIFI SAIDI
Feeder
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
F01 8.54 8.06 8.06 8.06 8.06 8.06 10.80 7.53 7.53 7.53 7.53 7.53
F02 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
F03 11.71 9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74 20.75 20.06 20.06 20.06 20.06 20.06
F04 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.63
F05 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97
F06 7.49 7.49 7.49 6.68 6.68 6.68 21.40 21.40 21.40 6.84 6.84 6.84
F07 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 5.01 5.01 5.01 5.01 5.01 5.01
F08 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15
F09 10.68 10.68 10.68 10.68 10.68 10.68 18.85 18.85 18.85 18.85 18.85 18.85
F10 5.14 5.14 5.14 5.14 5.14 5.14 7.62 7.62 7.62 7.62 7.62 7.62
F11 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 10.40 10.40 10.40 10.40 10.40 10.40
F12 9.38 9.38 9.38 9.38 9.38 9.38 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68
F13 7.64 7.64 7.64 7.64 7.64 7.64 8.94 8.94 8.94 8.94 8.94 8.94
F15 8.64 8.64 8.64 8.64 8.64 8.64 10.32 10.32 10.32 10.32 10.32 10.32
F16 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.44 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29
F17 12.43 9.04 9.04 9.04 9.04 9.04 33.07 20.81 20.81 20.81 20.81 20.81
F18 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87
F18A 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05
F19 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76
F20 1.06 1.06 1.06 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.08 0.08 0.08
F20A 8.29 8.29 8.29 8.29 8.29 8.29 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90
F21 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.74 1.74 1.74 1.74 1.74 1.74
F22 14.34 14.34 14.34 14.34 14.34 39.96 39.96 39.96 39.96 39.96
F23 8.61 8.61 8.61 8.61 8.61 10.86 10.86 10.86 10.86 10.86
F24 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28
The load was expressed as the current annual peak load on the distribution line
considered and assumed to grow over its thirty-year life cycle. The cost of power was
assumed to stay constant and a thirty-year present worth factor was developed for the cost
of losses and for the annual fixed cost Equation 11.7 shows the total cost function of line.
𝑪𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 = 𝒌𝟏 + 𝒌𝟐 ∗ 𝒌𝑾𝟐𝒑𝒆𝒂𝒌
𝟏 𝒓𝟏
𝒌𝟐 = [ ] × [(𝟖𝟕𝟔𝟎 ∗ 𝑳𝑺𝑭 ∗ 𝑪𝑬𝑪 ∗ 𝑷𝑾𝑭𝑬𝑪 ) + (𝑹𝑭 ∗ 𝑪𝑫𝑪 ∗ 𝑷𝑾𝑭𝑫𝑪 )]
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝒏𝑷𝑭𝟐 𝒌𝑽𝟐𝑳𝑵
Where:
Ctotal = Total Cost of Line
kW peak = Peak demand of the line in its first year (kW)
kVLN = Line-to-Neutral voltage (kV)
Cacq = Acquisition Cost
Cinst = Installation Cost
CO&M = Operation and Maintenance Cost
CEC = Energy charge (PhP/kWh)
CDC = Demand charge (PhP/kWh)
PWFO&M = Present worth factor (O&M Charge Component)
PWFDC = Present worth factor (Demand Charge Component)
PWFEC = Present worth factor (Energy Charge Component)
LSF = System Loss Factor
RF = Peak loss responsibility factor
PF = power factor of the load
r1 = Effective resistance of the line (ohms/km)
n = number of phases present
6,000.00
5,000.00
Demand (kilo-Watts)
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00
0.0 1,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0
Average Cost per kilometer
Load Reach is defined as the source-to-load distance that a feeder system can move
power before encountering the applicable voltage drop limit. Economic load reach is the load
reach if the feeder system is loaded at the maximum load within their economic loading
range.
[%𝑉𝐷𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎 ]
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ =
[%𝑉𝐷(𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑) ]⁄
𝑘𝑚
Above equation shows that the load reach of a given conductor is affected by its
voltage level. When you double the voltage, it doubles the load reach because load current
is halved, which effectively halves the voltage drop (assuming similar impedance), and
doubles the distance before the voltage drop limit is reached. In this viewpoint, it is practical
to go for high voltage distribution line, however, it has higher fixed costs. Therefore, it is
economical to use an appropriate voltage level but in the case of BOHECO I, the voltage
has been chosen at 13,200 Volts line-to-line.
This study uses a voltage criterion of 7.5% per unit drop for the primary distribution
line at ninety (90%) percent power factor.
Table 11-13 : Average Economic Load Reach (13.2-kV Primary Distribution Line)
Table 11-14 : Distribution Feeder Protection and Safety Development Project Cost
Commissioning
Count Project Description Project Cost
Year
FEEDER-01
P:\Planning\AutoCAD\Logo_BOHECO.png
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
FEEDER-18A
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
Planning/Design Division
PROPOSED:
CARMEN SUBSTATION
69 KV
EXISTING:
69 KV
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
Recloser Bypass
Switch with Fuse
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
Group Operated
Disconnect Switch
Feeder 07 Feeder 08 Feeder 13
PROPOSED:
DAMPAS SUBSTATION
69 KV
EXISTING:
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
15 KV Recloser Bypass
Switch with Fuse
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
Group Operated
Disconnect Switch
Feeder 04 Feeder 05 Feeder 06
69 KV Disconnect
EXISTING: Switch
69 KV
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
15 KV Recloser Bypass
Switch with Fuse
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
Group Operated
Disconnect Switch
Feeder 09 Feeder 10 Feeder 11
PROPOSED:
MACAAS SUBSTATION
69 KV
EXISTING:
69 KV
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
Recloser Bypass
Switch with Fuse
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
Group Operated
Disconnect Switch
Feeder 01 Feeder 02 Feeder 03 Feeder 12
EXISTING: 69 KV Disconnect
Switch
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
15 KV Recloser Bypass
Switch with Fuse
15 KV Circuit
Breaker
Group Operated
Disconnect Switch
Feeder 15 Feeder 16 Feeder 17