Price Action Part 2
Price Action Part 2
Price Action Part 2
Planning and reviewing your trades is what makes you a better trader. Also, the only way to
not be surprised by what the market does, especially when trading a very volatile asset class
like crypto, is to be prepared for every single scenario. I am primarily a scalper. Some of my
mentors had a very peculiar trait that I could never understand, they knew exactly which
trades to leave running for extended targets and which ones to cut early. The reason they
knew how to do this was because they always started with a top-down analysis before
placing a trade.
Basically, they had a weekly outlook, a daily outlook, a 4H outlook, an hourly outlook and
finally a 15-minute outlook. The charts for all those timeframes had already been scanned,
marked and planned for before they got down to the minute or 5-minute time frame to
actually execute their trades. Naturally, this gave them access to more data and more
insights, to understand which trades to leave running.
Next the entry and target for the 5-minute chart has been met. But since we know that this
chart would have a tendency to go lower than this level, we will only take partial profits
here or move our stop loss up. In these scenarios, instead of a normal 2:1 risk:reward ratio,
you have a much higher one and a higher hit rate. I call this trading style “HTF bias + LTF
confirmation”.
This means that we can have our stop loss for the trade based on the price action we see on
the 5-minute chart but we will not exit at the target on the 5-minute chart, at least not
completely. This is a trade I had taken personally, I exited half at the target mark and then
let the rest of the trade run for more profit. The reason I had more conviction in this trade
to let it run even when I had made enough profit was because the bias on the HTF was also
down and the target for the HTF set-up was not yet reached.
In this tutorial, you’ll learn what are the patterns, behaviours and scenarios where I have a
higher timeframe bias and how to use it to your advantage to secure more profit while
executing on the LTF just like the above trade.
Pinbars can look like any of the above images. The focus as always should be in the context
of the price action and not in one isolated candle structure.
There are three criterias I use for this type of daily or HTF bias:
Based on the above chart, we look at how we have a bullish pinbar at the very end of a
down swing. A bullish pinbar on the higher timeframe represents a scenario where the
sellers tried to push the price further down but failed to do so and price moved up due to
aggressive buyers stepping up or due to limit orders at the bottom of a trend. This is why it
is important for this pattern to appear at the end of a swing point, this ensures that our
thesis of over excited sellers or late shorters get punished during the formation of a bullish
pinbar and vice versa for a bearish pinbar.
Figure 5
The above chart shows a zoomed in version of the pinbar in the earlier chart, figure Y. Figure
Y was a daily chart while figure Z represents the hourly chart zoomed in on the pinbar of the
same scenario.
As is clear from the chart, the sellers force a breakdown on the lower timeframes before a
deviation and reclaim of that level takes place, this means that price is further moved up by
shorts closing (which means a market buy) and more aggressive buyers stepping in. It is also
important to note that since this takes place in a macro downtrend, most traders would feel
more comfortable shorting and hence would get trapped. It is also important to note that
this is just an explanation for a how a pinbar is formed, we will not be trading this blindly,
this is just an instrument to change our bias to bullish from bearish immediately after a
macro downtrend.
This is an example of ideal pinbar formations. The key here is not to focus on the body of the
candle but just the wick formation. In fact, now that we know how and why pinbars are
formed point 1 and Figure Z, you now have the tools to drop down to the lower timeframes
and see if the candle formation has taken place in the discussed manner.
Also important to mention here is no matter how good the candle or the candle formation
looks for a high conviction trade, I always wait for LTF confirmation. Whatever we have
discussed so far is only for HTF bias. We will also wait for an ideal pinbar to be formed as per
our knowledge, rushing into trades or going against the discussed bias just because a non-
ideal pinbar has been formed is not something I would advise.
3.Confluence
Although this is not something that the market will give you every time a pinbar appears as
per our criteria, it is still important to continue to look for confluence, be it price action or
indicators. The reasoning behind this is that the pinbar is mostly a reversal pattern as per
our context and framework of trading. Trading reversals inherently has some risk and thus,
you should always be looking for confluence.
Figure 7
RSI divergence is one of the first things that come to mind when trading reversals. Many
traders learn how to use these indicators when they first start out and there is a bias that
these don’t work, problem is that these don’t work in isolation. However, these are great
confluence tools that every trader should keep in mind.
Link to Exchange
https://www.bytrade.io/futures-trading-bonus
Figure 9. Draw your levels and drop dwon to the execution timeframe
Amongst other levels, one of the most important levels while trading bullish pinbars is the
low of the candle before the pinbar was formed. Price always has a tendency to reach back
to it during reversals. The candle closing of the pinbar has been marked on the chart with a
vertical line.
Once all the levels are identified, our bias is clear, it becomes a level to level trade.
Step 3.
Entry And Risk Management.
The best play for the following setup is to ladder your entries and exits. This has been
discussed in Chapter 1 in great detail. The best entry for a pinbar is the retest of the low of
the candle before the pinbar, the second entry is the retest of a level above the pinbar that
price reclaims, or retest of the top of the pinbar. In this case, we place buy orders at all of
those levels and get a better average entry as shown, stop is to be placed below the low of
the pinbar and used on a closing basis.
Bearish Example:
In the attached example, we again have a bearish scenario where price has rejected from
the Monthly Open twice before the pinbar is formed. Price left a wick and hence moved past
the monthly open where sellers stepped up and slammed the price back down, hence the
bias is instantly bearish and then you have a bearish pinbar as shown. We also have good
levels below us to look for targets so next, we drop down to the execution timeframe.
Figure 12.
Based on the above example, we marked our levels on the higher timeframe (4-hour), and
then we move down to the 15-minute timeframe.
In this example, we do not get another surge up for a better entry but our bias remains
short, so we wait for the retest of the 4H level below us to enter a position.
Type 2: Bullish or Bearish Engulfing Candles
What does the pattern look like?
This is again a reversal pattern. So this is expected to occur at the end of a trend or at least
short-term swing. And whenever I teach traders about engulfing bars they mostly start
telling me they know all about it, but this is not to be traded as a two-candle pattern to
blindly long or short wherever it forms.
Figure 15
In the above example, price reverses from a downturn after a period of consolidation as
indicated by the green circle.
However, when price is already in an uptrend after a market structure break to the upside,
this is not the context for our HTF bias. This is indicated by the red circle.
However, just identifying such areas of interest and identifying your HTF bias is not enough
as you need an entry, a set target and proper risk management to consistently trade using
these tools.
Our current bias is hence Bullish. Next, we will drop down to the lower timeframes and then
look for levels and the LTF picture to execute a long.
Step 2:
Find the Entry Trigger On The Lower Time Frame.
We now have a bullish bias but the hourly chart levels show us that we are right at
resistance and rejecting from the marked level. We will wait for a break above this level and
a retest. Here, aggressive traders can enter on the retest with a limit order and others can
wait for other forms of communication but usually, if you have a HTF bias, then a LTF level
retest, this should be enough confirmation to pivot long.
Step 3:
Execution and Risk Management.
First and foremost order of business should be a stop placement. This should ideally be on a
closing basis if price breaks down below the H1 level we are longing, so you are attempting
to get out of the long position as close to your entry as possible. However, we have a
“safety” stop or a hard stop loss below the last low before the break above the level. This is
to ensure that we don’t lose more than we had planned in case a violent breakdown takes
place.
Next, we have a final target at the Hourly level above. However, there is a partial take profit
opportunity at the red box in the figure. The reason is that we retest a part support level as
resistance twice before forming a deviation above it. Since price went above it but failed to
hold, we will take a partial profit in these situations. It is easy to cherry pick examples that
will show how these trades moved straight into target but as an educator, I would like to be
open on how laddering entries and exits remains one of the most important techniques of
risk management. This is why we are using real world examples and charts to illustrate our
setups.
Bearish Example:
The second attempt to break above the range had a bearish engulfing candle as marked. As
such, now we have a massive uptrend but price is stalling at strong resistance. Now we also
have a 4-Hour level for a clear downside objective as range low is untapped. Hence, we have
a strong HTF bias for downside.
Figure 20.
Now we look at the zoomed in image on our execution timeframe for the above set-up.
We have a resistance zone on the hourly chart, we also have a breakdown of our marked
levels. We can take some profit at the target 1 level. If we break down from a level that is
important as per our system described in chapter 2, then we can always re-enter and
compound at that level.
The Swing Failure Pattern primarily focuses on swing highs and swing lows in a price chart. A
swing high occurs when a price reaches a peak and is followed by a downward movement,
while a swing low happens when a price reaches a trough and is followed by an upward
movement. By analysing the sequence of swing highs and lows, traders can identify the
development of a Swing Failure Pattern.
Price flips resistance and establishes that as support. Most traders long the
asset and place their stop loss below that support (because price losing
support would mean bearishness). Breakout traders short as soon as support is lost even
before candle closes.
Stop loss on longs and short orders are the liquidity injection that large buyers
needed to buy, sell pressure is absorbed by large buy orders and the candle
closes above support. A ‘sweep’ of the level is seen.
This pattern can be found in various timeframes, making it applicable for both short-term and
long-term traders. It is most effective in trending markets, especially when combined with
other technical analysis tools like support and resistance levels, trendlines, and candlestick
patterns.
● Identifying the Prevailing Trend: The first step in recognizing the Swing Failure Pattern
is to identify the prevailing trend in the market. This could be an uptrend (higher highs
and higher lows) or a downtrend (lower highs and lower lows).
●
● Formation of Swing High and Swing Low: As the trend progresses, the market will
form swing highs and swing lows. A swing high is a price peak that is higher than the
preceding and succeeding peaks, while a swing low is a price trough that is lower than
the preceding and succeeding troughs.
● Risk Management: As with any trading strategy, risk management is crucial when
trading based on the Swing Failure Pattern. You should use appropriate stop-loss
orders to limit potential losses and position sizing techniques to manage risk
effectively.
I don't advice just being a trend trader or a PA trader. Crypto is full of widely available
information and retail move info that anyone can use to her an indepth motion of the market.
Hence on the long term, I don't believe just studying PA, or Trading the trend or breakout is a
successful strategy. Confluence and data is where the sweet spot lies. However, it is
paramount that all your basics are clear and an indepth understanding of PA is a primary
requirement.
3.1 Bullish MS
A bullish MS is identified when the price makes a series of higher highs HH and higher lows
HL. Every time the price takes out a high to form a higher high, we get what is called a break
of structure BOS or MSB (Market Structure Break).
3.2 Bullish MS
A bearish MS is identified when the price makes a series of lower lows
LL and lower highs LH. Every time the price takes out a low to form a lower low, we get a
break of structure BOS.
The figure above is an example of the last deep swing high on a 1D BTC chart. The price was
previously in a continuous uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows, until it reached the
high marked with a green tick. The price proceeded to fail to break that high and ended up
moving below the low that formed that high. Thus, you have a BOS.
Figure 32. Example of a deep swing low
Figure 6 is a 1D BTC chart; notice how the price pulls back after the first HH, and after a
short downtick was hit; the price started going back up, taking out the previous higher high,
with a bullish green candle closing above it (BOS) and reaching out for a new higher high.
Pullbacks
Note that after every BOS we expect a pullback on that same timeframe. And this is where
market structure comes in handy.
Figure 33. Short on a pullback in theory
If a BOS occurs then look for an opportunity to long/short on a pullback. In other words, never
think of buying right after a BOS; wait for the pullback. Studying my SFP (Swing Failure Pattern)
tutorial is also advisable to better grasp why it is not wise not to trade breakouts without
context. (link - https://t.me/EmperorbtcTA/493)
The following example in figure below illustrates an actionable trading setup based entirely
on market structure. Price is in an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows. Then bullish
continuation failed (failure to make a higher high), which led to a break of market structure
(BOS).
The formation of a lower low confirms a bearish trend change, our entry would be on a
pullback. We put our stop loss above the last lower high and target previous swing lows.
Please utilise the levels tutorial to grasp better how we identified the entry using a critical
level. The scope of this tutorial is limited to
introducing MS and explaining its widespread application in trading.
(link - https://t.me/EmperorbtcTA/527)
Figure 34. ETH 1D chart
The next concept is a tool that you can use alongside the break of market structure (BOS) in
order to anticipate when a run may be finished and a pullback may be starting (Bearish
CHoCH), and when a pullback has finished and a run may be beginning (Bullish CHoCH). The
figure below will give you an idea of the whole setup, using BOS and CHoCH combined with
the market structure.
Figure 35. BOS+CHoCH in theory
I recommend you look at CHoCH as the first sign of trend change; it doesn’t have to be a deep
swing structure; it can be in the minor movements in between; while the BOS is a trend
continuation where we look for deep swing highs and lows to be taking out.
Note: CHoCH is not a guarantee, it can give false signals, use it in confluence with other
tools.
Figure 36. BTC 1D Chart
Figure above is an excellent example of a trade I took on the BTC daily chart; we first see a
CHoCH after a long uptrend, confirmed by a BOS. In this example, we didn’t get the best-
looking pullback; the market was in a sell-off mode. Traders who are a bit more aggressive
might enter on the first CHoCH. If you are a beginner do not use CHoCH as an entry signal,
wait for a deep swing low (LL) confirmation then enter on a pullback. You can also use other
tools as confluence.
3.4 Trade Set ups
➢ The first bearish CHoCH signals that the bullish swing run might be
over and a pullback is starting.
➢ The second CHoCH breach is a bullish sign indicating that the
pullback might end and a swing run might start.
➢ The same strategy is used for the rest of the trades.
Note: Market structure appears on all timeframes, but more often than not we can get a
bearish structure on lower timeframes while the overall MS on higher timeframes is
bullish. The key is to look for signs of pullbacks (or CHoCH) on the lower timeframes to get
with general MS direction on the higher timeframe.
Short Set Up
Conclusion:
Higher Time Frame market structure can be used to form a bias. Then trade the Lower Time
Frame range to trade.
➢ Understand what BOS is and when it occurs. Use Change of Character for entries before
Break of Structure takes place. Explained in the various examples.
➢ Market Structure should act as confluence in all your trades. Use multiple tutorial
concepts as confluence for entires.
➢ Market Structure understanding is the basic requirement for all trading. If you don’t have
a firm grasp on this concept, it will be difficult to create your own trading system
3.5 Market Structure Questions and Answers
In this section of the tutorial, I will answer questions related to the previous tutorial.
This is a great question; we didn’t take the blue circled part as CHoCH because the price has
broken the most significant high with strength and closed above. This is a sign that price is
forming a deep swing high. This also comes after a bullish ChoCH. Thus, we take it as a Break
Of Structure. (BOS)
Figure 40. Question 2
The figure above shows what should be considered as a deep swing. Once a BOS happens,
we take the lowest low that has led to our HH to be broken, and we call it HL. Then we wait
for a pullback to enter. We do not predict where the price will return to or whether it will
head lower; ideally in a bullish MS, we look for longs until proven otherwise. Remember that
market structure is a fundamental concept to understand; you must always look for entry
triggers using other concepts.
Figure 41. Question 3
Once you get stuck and don’t know what to consider what, try to take a step back and focus
on the bigger picture. First, look for your deep swing lows and highs, your BOS and lastly,
your CHoCH (Check figure 3). For beginners, I suggest you do not trade a higher time frame
range based on lower time frame MS as you’ve done here. Wait for the upcoming tutorials
to add more confluence to your trading system.
The orange line can’t be considered a bearish CHoCH, the white line before it is. Reason: Price
already had a bearish CHoCH, and also, the low you used to draw the orange line is forced.
Review the comments added in figure above and you’ll be able to spot if it’s forced or not on
your own.
Figure 42. Q4
CHoCH is not a structure break. The minor movements in between help you anticipate the
start or the end of a pullback. In this case, if a CHoCH were to happen it would be before the
BOS. Also, this is just a drawing, and on a real chart, you might have been able to find a CHoCH
before the BOS. In the region circled below.
Figure 43
Remember that while a BOS is a confirmation of a trend change, CHoCH is not. It is only
the first sign of weakness before a break of structure occurs. (Read swing structure and
substructure, covered later in this tutorial)
It is not the red candle you pointed out. Check the black box in figure5. A bearish CHoCH
might look like a BOS on LTFs. While we only look for deep swing points to find BOS. The
intermediate low before the HH being broken was a bearish CHoCH.
I only use them if the candle closes below the low. So not exactly the marked candle, but
you have the right idea.
The line and arrow were only meant to point out the level that needs to be broken in order
for it to be called a bearish CHoCH, not to point out the candle specifically.
3.6 Swing Structure & Substructure:
The goal behind this section is to add more clarity to the BOS and CHoCH concepts. Swing
structure is the framework where we lay out our deep swing highs and swing lows; it
highlights the significant price fluctuations. (Bigger picture) The substructure is the minor
movements happening inside the larger swing structure. (Smaller picture). BOS happens in
swing structures while CHoCH happens in Substructures. Also, these structures will be relative
to the timeframe that you are viewing.
Figure above is a 4H BTC chart; after the HH, we notice a BOS so we mark out our deep swing
high and low, every price movement happening in between these two lines is categorized as
noise or minor movements, and we should refer to these substructure changes as a bearish
CHoCH or bullish CHoCH.
Bearish CHoCH is the first switch in substructure. Turning the substructure from bullish to
bearish and bullish CHoCH is the first switch turning substructure from bearish to bullish.
These are the only two CHoCHs you should care about.
Figure 46. 4H BTC chart long setup
Figure above is a long setup taken recently, after BOS we wait for a pullback to enter, the
first sign of the start of a pullback was the bearish CHoCH, the second sign of the end of our
pullback was the bullish CHoCH. We enter on the first green candle closing above the bullish
CHoCH and we target the previous HH. Notice that we waited for a long setup since the
swing structure (bigger picture) is bullish. For confluence you can use Volume Profile or
simply horizontal levels that are relevant to add more confluence to our entry trigger.
Conclusion
This was the second part of the complete Price Action Trading
Encyclopaedia. I promise you that if you complete parts 1&2,
you are prepared to start your journey as a price action trader. I
will release a third part to discuss some more advanced
concepts and how you can create your own trading system.
My Twitter: https://x.com/EmperorBTC?s=20