Seismic Hazard Assessment

Part 1: Earthquake Hazards and Seismic Hazard Analysis

Dr. Fawad A. Najam Prof. Dr. Pennung Warnitchai

Department of Structural Engineering Head, Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
NUST Institute of Civil Engineering (NICE) School of Engineering and Technology (SET)
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)
H-12 Islamabad, Pakistan Bangkok, Thailand
Cell: 92-334-5192533, Email: fawad@nice.nust.edu.pk
Earthquake Hazards

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 Earthquake Hazards

• 60% of all deaths by natural disasters are

caused by Earthquakes [1]
• In 20th century, 17000 persons per year [2]

1. Shedlock and Tanner, 1999

2. Chen and Scawthorn, 2002
Figure Source: ISC

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 Earthquake Hazards

• Ground shaking
• Ground displacement along faults: surface rupture
• Ground failures: soil liquefaction, landslide, mud slide, differential soil settlement, etc.
• Tsunami
• Floods from dam and levee failures
• Fires resulting from earthquakes

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 Ground Shaking Hazard: Wenchuan Earthquake (2008), China
Magnitude = 8.0

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 Ground Shaking Hazard: Kashmir Earthquake (2005),
Balakot, Pakistan (Magnitude = 7.7)

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 Ground Shaking Hazard: Yogyakarta Earthquake (2006), Indonesia
Magnitude = 6.2

BPKP Building (Sewon, Yogyakarta)

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 Surface Rupture Hazard: The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

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 The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Shih-Kang Dam
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Soil Liquefaction Hazard
Loss of Bearing Capacity

A building in Dagupan,
Philippines after the
1990 Luzon EQ

Overturned building in
Adpazari, Turkey in the 1999
Kocaeli EQ
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 Damage to Sewers

Sand Boiling
Sand Boiling

Manhole Flexible Pipe

Crack or Residual
Strain
Residual Strain

Original Soil
Rigid Pipe
(Liquefied)

Lift-up Force
Replaced Soil (Liquefied)

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 Tokachi-oki EQ, Hokkaido (2003)

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 Underground Pipe Failure in Baguio, Philippines
(Luzon Earthquake, 1990)

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 Earthquake-induced Landslide in Wenchuan County, China
(Wenchuan Earthquake, 2008)

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 Dynamic Stability of Embankment

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 Bhuj earthquake 2001 Irrigation Dams

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 Tsunami generated by an Earthquake

Inundation

Propagation

Generation

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 Khao Lak, Phang-Nga
Maximum Water Level

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 The 1995 Kobe Earthquake

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 Fires resulting from the Earthquake (Kobe EQ, 1995)

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 Fires resulting from the
Earthquake (Kobe EQ, 1995)

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 Basic Questions

• Where will future earthquakes occur?

• What will be their size?

• What will be their frequency of occurrence?

• What will be the ground shaking intensity at the site produced by earthquakes of different size, focal depth, and
epicentral location?

• How will the ground motion be influenced by local soil conditions and geology?

• What will be the earthquake hazards (landslide, liquefaction, etc.) produced at the site?

• How about the susceptibility of buildings and structures to damage from the ground shaking and ground failures?

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 Lack of Resources
for Communities Population

Natural or Man- Inappropriate

Urbanization and Un-
made Built
planned development
Phenomena Environment

Disaster Hazard Vulnerability Exposure

Risk
To reduce risk of disaster and increase safety,
we need to estimate hazard properly,
and Reduce Vulnerability

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Seismic Hazard Assessment

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 Seismic Hazard Assessment

SEISMIC HAZARD × SEISMIC VULNERABILITY = SEISMIC RISK

• In principle, Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) can address any natural hazard
associated with earthquakes, including ground shaking, fault rupture, landslide, liquefaction,
or tsunami.

• However, most interest is in the estimation of ground-shaking hazard, since it causes the
largest economic losses in most earthquakes.

• Moreover, of all the seismic hazards, ground motion is the predominant cause of
damage from earthquakes; building collapses, dam failures, landslides, and liquefactions
are all the direct result of ground motion.

• The Chapter, therefore, is restricted to the estimation of the earthquake ground motion
hazard

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 Ground Motion Parameters

• There are many different ground motion parameters—displacement, velocity, acceleration, or

MMI.

• Usually Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is considered to be the preferred ground motion
parameter.

• Seismic Hazard = Ground-shaking Hazard = the probability of occurrence of

potentially destructive seismic ground shaking at a given site within a given time
interval.

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 Global Seismic Hazard Map

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 Seismic Hazard Map of Thailand

This map shows contours of

PGA (in unit of g ) with 10%
probability of exceedance in a
50-year exposure period.

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 50 year with 10% PE seismic hazard
map by
(a) Building Code of Pakistan (BCP, 2007),
(b) Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP, 2006)
(c) Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD-
NORSAR, 2007) and
(d) Global Seismic Hazard Program (GSHAP)
by United States Geological Survey
(USGS, 2008)

Source: Khan SA et al., (2012). A New

Framework for Earthquake Risk Assessment in
Developing Countries
Source: Khan SA et al., (2012). A New
Framework for Earthquake Risk Assessment
in Developing Countries
 Seismic Hazard Assessment

• Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) has been widely used by engineers, regulators, and planners
to mitigate earthquake losses:

 Specifying seismic design levels for individual structures and building codes

 Evaluating the seismic safety of existing facilities

 Planning for societal and economic emergencies (emergency preparedness)

 Setting priorities for the mitigation of seismic risk

 Insurance analysis

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 Probabilistic vs. Deterministic

• DSHA considers the effect at a site of either a single scenario earthquake, or a relatively small number of individual
earthquakes. Challenge The selection of a representative earthquake on which the hazard assessment would be
based.

• PSHA quantifies the hazard at a site from all earthquakes of all possible magnitudes, at all significant distances
from the site of interest, as a probability by taking into account their frequency of occurrence.

• Deterministic earthquake scenarios, therefore, are a subset of the probabilistic methodology.

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Thank you for your attention

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