Project Risk Analysis Based On
Project Risk Analysis Based On
www.emeraldinsight.com/1463-5771.htm
Project risk
Project risk analysis based on analysis
project characteristics
Anjali Shishodia
National Institute of Industrial Engineering, Mumbai, India
893
Vijaya Dixit
Indian Institute of Management Ranchi, Ranchi, India, and Received 27 June 2017
Priyanka Verma Revised 5 October 2017
Accepted 6 October 2017
National Institute of Industrial Engineering, Mumbai, India
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze risk profiles of projects based on project characteristics
and provide key managerial insights.
Design/methodology/approach – A total of 37 project cases from engineering and construction (E&C),
information system/technology (IS/IT), and new product development (NPD) sectors with detailed
information on project characteristics and risks were identified from published literature. An integrated
framework was developed to analyze the prominent risk categories associated with novelty, technology,
complexity, and pace (NTCP) project characteristics.
Findings – Within-sector analysis revealed that schedule, resource, and scope risks are the most
prominent risk categories in E&C, IS/IT, and NPD projects, respectively. Similarly, interesting key insights
have been drawn from detailed cross-sector analysis, depicting different risk categories based on NTCP
project characteristics.
Research limitations/implications – The findings are based on the case studies adopted from the
literature that provides details of project characteristics and risk profiles.
Practical implications – Depending upon the risks associated with different project characteristics, an
integrated framework developed in the study can be used for the development of highly authentic risk
management plans at the onset.
Originality/value – This is one of the earliest studies to provide an integrated risk framework for projects
based on their NTCP characteristics. The two contrasting perspectives of within-sector and cross-sector
analyses were adopted. Overall, the study will enhance the future preparedness toward risks.
Keywords Technology, Project risk management, New product development,
Engineering and construction, Risk classification, Information system/information technology, Novelty,
Complexity, Pace model
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
A project-based firm’s project portfolio comprises of multiple projects with different
characteristics. Each project has a unique objective, scope, performance specification, budget,
and timeline (Smith, 1985). A project can be viewed as a temporary organization, production
function, as an agency for assigning resources to the management of change within the
functional organization, and as an agency for uncertainty management (Packendorff, 1995;
Turner and Müller, 2003). Projects comprise of numerous geographically dispersed but
interdependent activities, suppliers, and stakeholders that are exposed to different types and
degrees of risks. These risks can have a potential negative influence on the scope, baseline
cost, and schedule of a project. Moreover, because of the unique nature and dynamic
environment of projects, risks are inevitable. Therefore, project-based firms should develop a
culture, where changes are embraced and not denied, and problems are discussed and not
Benchmarking: An International
concealed. To ensure sustainable firm performance, organizations should adopt a project risk Journal
management (PRM) approach based on key project characteristics (Larson and Gray, 2013). Vol. 25 No. 3, 2018
pp. 893-918
PRM arranges business processes and personnel in a formal structured framework to identify, © Emerald Publishing Limited
1463-5771
assess, monitor, and control project risks (Lechler et al., 2012). DOI 10.1108/BIJ-06-2017-0151
BIJ Multiple advancements have been made in PRM (Webb, 1994; Hastak and Shaked, 2000;
25,3 Chapman, 2003; Wallace et al., 2004a; Schaufelberger, 2005; Ling and Hoi, 2006; Han and
Huang, 2007; Choi and Ahn, 2010; Li and Zou, 2011; Porananond and Thawesaengskulthai,
2014; Kendrick, 2015; Salavati et al., 2016). Similarly, the research in project classification has
progressed since 1978 ( Blake, 1978; Henderson and Clark, 1990;Wheelwright and Clark, 1992;
Turner and Cochrane, 1993; Shenhar, 1993; Shenhar and Dvir, 1996; D’ Herbemont and César,
894 1998; Pich et al., 2002; Archibald and Voropaev, 2003; Vaidyanathan, 2013; Bangsgaard, 2010;
Lechler et al., 2012; Besner and Hobbs, 2012). However, no study has adopted a perspective of
analyzing risks based on project characteristics. Project-based firms have a portfolio of projects
with different characteristics and risk profiles. Different projects require distinct project
management approaches to attain success, and the “one size fits all” approach may lead to
project failures (Shenhar, 2001). This diversity in project characteristics and risk profiles
provides an opportunity to develop an integrated framework for risk analysis.
The present study developed an integrated framework that characterized projects from
three sectors according to the novelty, technology, complexity, and pace (NTCP) framework by
Shenhar and Dvir (2007) and subsequently analyzed the risk profiles of the projects using the
risk categories, namely, scope, resource, and schedule risks, as suggested by Kendrick (2015).
Of the total 37 project cases, 15, 10, and 12 were from engineering and construction (E&C),
information system/technology (IS/IT), and new product development (NPD) sectors,
respectively. These sectors were selected because projects executed in these sectors are large
and technically complex, involve a combination of specialized skills, and require team
members from multidisciplinary domains, thus providing variable project risk profiles for
analysis. Within- and cross-sector analyses were performed to evaluate substantial risk
categories and their root causes based on prominent project characteristics. The presented
findings can enable project-based firms to effectively manage their project portfolios by using
distinct risk management strategies for different projects.
2. Literature review
This section is divided into two subsections. Section 2.1 reviews project classification
studies and justifies the use of the NTCP framework in this study. Section 2.2 reviews
various risk classification approaches and discusses the rationale behind adopting the risk
categories proposed by Kendrick (2015) in the present study.
Project Risks
Scope Scope
People Money Outsourcing Delays Estimates Dependencies
Changes Defects
Delayed Learning
ScopeGap Software Late Start Parts Legal
Start curve
defect
Late or
Scope poor Decision Deadlines Project
Hardware Temp loss
Creep defect output
Figure 1. Queuing
Risk classification
framework
Source: Kendrick (2015)
root causes (MRCs) based on project characteristics. Furthermore, within- and cross-sector Project risk
analyses were performed to derive key insights, which can assist project managers in assessing analysis
risk profiles before project commencement.
Project
name Project cases References
C_P 1 A bridge construction project in Tehran, Iran, undertaken by the Hashemi et al. (2011)
Municipality of Tehran
C_P 2 A cross-country petroleum pipeline-laying project in western India Dey (2009)
C_P 3 A housing construction project in Maharashtra, India Sharma (2013)
C_P 4 Installation of an extra high voltage overhead transmission line in Tummala and Burchett
Kowloon and the New Territories of the Hong Kong region (1999)
C_P 5 Mass rapid-transit underground rail project in Thailand Ghosh and
Jintanapakanont (2004)
C_P 6 A road construction project of an 11.37-km bypass road and a 0.75-km Thomas et al. (2006)
bridge under the build-operate-transfer arrangement
C_P 7 Development of the first expressway project in the mountainous area in Li and Zou (2011)
the north of He-Nan Province in China
C_P 8 Development of the first theme park, Hong Kong Disneyland, in Shen et al. (2006)
Hong Kong
C_P 9 Development of a residential-commercial complex in a northern city in Zhi (1995)
China, mainly for foreign businesspeople and their families
C_P 10 Construction of a 4,760-m long-span multipurpose bridge across the Mustafa and Al-Bahar
Jamuna River in Bangladesh (1991)
C_P 11 Implementation of building information modeling technology by the Chien et al. (2014)
largest military technology research institute in Taiwan in a
construction project
C_P 12 Development of an office building Mills (2001)
C_P 13 Construction of the Shahid Rajaee port in Tehran, which is located at a Hashemi et al. (2013)
unique geographical location in southern Iran
C_P 14 Metropolitan underground construction, including an underground Kuo and Lu (2013)
station for the Taipei Metro system, in a heavy traffic area Table I.
C_P 15 A road project in Sri Lanka Perera et al. (2009) E&C project cases
BIJ First, the 15 projects were mapped to the NTCP diamond framework based on their
25,3 characteristics (Figure 2). Appendix describes one case study. Similarly, other cases were
studied and mapped. Second, the significant risk categories and their possible root causes
were identified (Table AII, Appendix).
3.1.1 Analysis based on the integrated framework. Analyses of project characteristics
and the root causes of risks in the 15 E&C projects were compiled to derive the following
898 key insights. The construction projects of city-bridge (C_P 1), houses (C_P 3), road (C_P 6),
residential-complex (C_P 9) and official buildings (C_P 12), and road (C_P 15) were
characterized as derivative (novelty), low-tech (technology), assembly (low complexity), and
time-critical (pace) projects (Table II). Schedule risks were more prominent than other risks
in these projects because legal dependencies (permissions and approvals from the
government) and estimated deadlines lead to high schedule risks. The projects with
TECHNOLOGY
SH
H
L
COMPLEXITY AR SY AS D P B NOVELTY
Legend
FC C_P1 (Bridge)
C_P2 (Pipeline)
C_P3 (House)
C_P4 (transmission line)
TC
C_P5 (Rail)
BL C_P6 (Road)
C_P7 (Expressway)
PACE C_P8 (Theme park)
C_P9 (Residential building)
C_P10 (Bridge)
Figure 2. C_P11 (BIM)
Mapping of C_P12 (Office building)
E&C projects on the C_P13 (Port)
NTCP model C_P14 (Underground station)
C_P15 (Road)
Project
name Project cases References
TECHNOLOGY
SH
H
L
COMPLEXITY AR SY AS D P B NOVELTY
Legend
S/W_P1 (Application tracking)
FC S/W_P2 (E-commerece)
S/W_P3 (IT Realignment)
S/W_P4 (Control)
S/W_P5 (Financial Service)
S/W_P6 (Outsourcing)
Figure 3. TC S/W_P7 (Web development)
Mapping of IS/IT S/W_P8 (Cloud Computing)
projects on the BL S/W_P9 (Offshore)
NTCP model S/W_P10 (ERPMIS)
PACE
(S/W_P 3), outsourcing management (S/W_P 6), and offshore software (S/W_P 9) projects, Project risk
resource risks are more prominent than other risks (Table VI) because of people queuing, analysis
people loss, and delayed outsourcing that result in high resource risks. Projects with a
higher technology and fast-competitive pace are susceptible to schedule as well as resource
risks because of information delay (i.e. cultural differences, language barriers, distance, time
separation, and communication with project teams across different geographic locations).
In projects with high novelty (platform), technology, and complexity (array), irrespective 901
of their pace, such as those for software development for managing applications (S/W_P 1),
the development of traditional software for virtual teams (S/W_P 7), cloud computing-based
IT projects (S/W_P 8), the implementation of ERP managing IS (S/W_P 10), and the
development of e-commerce software (S/W_P 2), scope and resource risks are more
prominent risk categories (Table VII). The MRCs of risks are scope changes and defects as
well as inadequate or prior engagement of skilled/expert personnel in project teams for
managing international projects/centrally located domestic projects.
An increase in project novelty (breakthrough) increased the uncertainties associated
with high technological requirements observed in developing software for controlling
satellites (S/W_P 4) and medium technologies for developing financial software (S/W_P 5,
Table VIII). The MRCs were scope dependencies, requirement changes, the unavailability of
required infrastructure, and delay in required parts for development.
Project
name N T C P SCPR RESR SCHR MRC(s)
NPD_P 1 Fabrication of high-visibility garments containing a new surface Jerrard et al. (2008)
design element for providing improved safety to children during
cycling and walking
NPD_P 2 Development of a loudspeaker for an integrated home- Jerrard et al. (2008)
entertainment system by a company
NPD_P 3 Design, development, and manufacturing of a range of safety Jerrard et al. (2008)
headwear (helmets) for rescue services, military organizations,
and recreational markets, but specifically for surfers
NPD_P 4 Design and manufacturing of a multielement hot plate Jerrard et al. (2008)
NPD_P 5 Design and development of innovative products, including new Jerrard et al. (2008)
desktop printers, for assisting visually impaired people
NPD_P 6 A complete service from generating ideas of machines and Susterova et al. (2012)
devices to preparing final assembly drawings
NPD_P 7 Pharmaceutical industry involved in drug development in Buyukozkan (2008)
Turkey
NPD_P 8 Manufacturing of hijabs in Indonesia Dewi et al. (2015)
NPD_P 9 Development of pet and animal food, livestock product, and Porananond and
fishery product segments in a food industry producing ready-to- Thawesaengskulthai
eat meal products (2014)
NPD_P 10 Development of a 2AAA penlight operated by AAA-size Chin (2009)
batteries with a major product requirement of a lock-feeling two-
way on-off switch
NPD_P 11 Development of a small satellite for a scientific mission based on Marmier et al. (2014)
two different platforms
Table IX. NPD_P 12 The renovation of event venues (church) to facilitate their Hassanien and Dale (2012)
NPD project cases commercial use
TECHNOLOGY Project risk
analysis
SH
H
M
903
L
COMPLEXITY AR SY AS D P B NOVELTY
Legend
NPD_P1 (Garments)
NPD_P2 (Loudspeaker)
FC NPD_P3 (Helmet)
NPD_P4 (Hot plate)
NPD_P5 (Printer)
TC NPD_P6 (Machine)
NPD_P7 (Drugs)
NPD_P8 (Hijab) Figure 4.
BL NPD_P9 (Meal products) Mapping of NPD
NPD_P10 (Penlight) projects on the
PACE NPD_P11 (Satellite) NTCP model
NPD_P12 (Venue)
innovative hot plate (NPD_4), and the development of a loudspeaker (NPD_P 2). Resource
risks are the major risk category in such projects, and occasionally scope risks are also
significant. However, to maintain market competitiveness and a higher pace, it is essential to
control schedule as well as resource risks.
In projects with breakthrough novelty, medium to high technology, medium to high
complexity (system to array), and regular pace, such as those for specially designing a
desktop printer for visually impaired people (NPD_P 5) and machine assembly (NPD_P 6),
scope risks are the major risk category due to scope (suppliers, shipment, customers, and
subcontractors) dependencies (Table XI). However, projects involving the manufacturing of
pharmaceutical drugs (NPD_P 7) and THE production of ready-to-eat meal products
Project
name N T C P SCPR RESR SCHR MRC(s)
5. Managerial implications
The integrated framework will provide an overview of the risks associated with the
project’s NTCP characteristics. This will help the managers in preparing strategies to
tackle risks, selection of appropriate tools and techniques at the onset or before actual
realization of the project. The managers/organizations will be in a better position to
foresee and execute risk mitigation strategies proactively concerning project management
aspects in this highly VUCA environment. This will equip them with enhanced decision-
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pace in the eletrobras distribuição piauí projects”, International symposium on project
management, innovation and sustainability, Universidade Nove de Julho – UNINOVE, São
Paulo – SP, pp. 2317-8302.
Sauser, B.J., Reilly, R.R. and Shenhar, A.J. (2009), “Why projects fail? How contingency theory can
provide new insights – a comparative analysis of NASA’s Mars Climate Orbiter loss”,
International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 27 No. 7, pp. 665-679.
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Srivannaboon, S. and Stefanovic, J. (2005), “Toward a NASA-specific project management
framework”, Engineering Management Journal, Vol. 17 No. 4, pp. 8-16.
References Classification/framework
Mustafa and Al-Bahar Sources of risks were classified into seven groups, namely physical, financial and
(1991) economic, political, environmental, design, job site-related, and act-of-God risks
Hastak and Shaked (2000) Project risks were classified in a more general manner into macro-, project-, and
micro-level risks
Grimsey and Lewis (2002) Risks were identified in terms of entities involved, namely, procurers, sponsors,
and lenders
Santoso et al. (2003) Risks were classified into nine groups: physical, personal, technical, safety
accident, construction design-caused, political and regulation, financial,
contractual, and environmental regulation risks
Ghosh and All risks were categorized in nine groups: financial and economic, contractual and
Jintanapakanont (2004) legal, subcontracting, operational, safety and social, design, force majeure,
physical, and delay risks
Schaufelberger (2005) Project risks were classified into general and project-specific risks based on
macro environmental factors and construction project lifecycle (development,
construction, and operation), respectively
Ling and Hoi (2006) Risks were classified into two major groups: unique (political and social, economic
and financial, and cultural) and generic (regulatory, design, natural, managerial,
and plant and equipment) risks
Dikmen et al. (2007) All risks were categorized into eight groups: technical, managerial, resource,
productivity, design, payment, client, and subcontracting risks
Iyer and Sagheer (2009) Risks were classified as pre-investment, financial closure delay, resettlement and
rehabilitation, land acquisition delay, permit/approval, technology, design and latent
defect, cost overrun, schedule, direct political, Indian political, legal, financial,
nonpolitical, force majeure, partnering, environmental, and physical risks
Li and Zou (2011) Risks were classified on the basis of project lifecycle, that is, feasibility study,
tendering, financing, design, operation, and transfer stages
Dey (2012) Risks were grouped into four categories: management-related, design-related,
political, and legal risks. Some authors identified risks with respect to
stakeholders’ involvement
Xiaopeng and Pheng (2013) Only variables affecting political risks were identified
Sigmund and Radujković Risks were categorized into two major groups: external (legal, political and economic,
(2014) social, natural, and technical) and project (management, design documentation,
human factor, delivery, logistics, contractual, and project realization) risks
Chen and Leu (2014) Only factors affecting the fall-risk dimension were identified
Liu et al. (2016) All risks were classified into three major categories associated with international Table AI.
construction projects: country-, market-, and project-level risks E&C project risks
BIJ
25,3
914
Table AII.
Risk assessment of
Keizer et al. (2005) The top ten risk factors are listed as follows: acceptance and marketing,
organization and project management, product technology, supply chain
and sourcing, manufacturing technology, public acceptance, competitor, and
commercial viability risks.
Chin et al. (2009) Four risks categories were identified: research and development, supply,
production, and product reliability risks
Choi and Ahn (2010) Risk factors related to product complexity, product technology, program
structure, competition, business relationship, team scope, resource tightness,
and schedule tightness were identified
Park et al. (2011) Risk factors were classified into five categories: people, technology,
resource, process/planning/scheduling, and other risks
Chaudhuri et al. (2013) Only factors affecting supply chain risks were identified
Porananond and A total of 20 risk factors were identified: schedule, organization structure,
Thawesaengskulthai (2014) project communication, economic, technical complexity, location selection,
resource planning, team knowledge, design, manufacturing technology,
intellectual property, sourcing and materials planning, customer
requirement, manufacturing capability, logistics and transportation
selection, procurement and contract, social, political, natural, and
compliance risks
Table AV. Salavati et al. (2016) Risk factors were classified into four categories: technological, marketing,
NPD project risks organizational, and commercialization risks
Project name N T C P SCPR RESR SCHR MRC(s)
917
assessment based on
NPD project risk
Project risk
Table AVI.
Corresponding author
Vijaya Dixit can be contacted at: movijaya@gmail.com
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