HOW TO CALCULATE SUPPLY NEEDS FOR A THERAPEUTIC FEEDING PROGRAMME STE

This forecast is based on the two main components of therapeutic feeding programmes which require supplies:
Inpatient therapeutic care and Outpatient therapeutic care

• Children admitted in Inpatient care are children with severe acute malnutrition, or with medical complications and
poor appetite.
• Children admitted in Outpatient care are children with severe acute malnutrition without medical complications and
with appetite.

Inputs: This spreadsheet is made to help you calculate a forecast of supply needs & supply costs of a Therapeutic Feeding
programme, based on the data you enter on sheet "Inputs". After you completed the input, a printout of sheet "Forecast
Output" can assist you with budgetting & fundraising, while sheet "Calculation" provides more forecast details, to assist you
with programming and managing your stocks.

Input example below

1 On Sheet "Inputs" as a first step, input population demographics: population number, the estimated percentage of Severe
Acute Malnutrition using the same criteria as are used for admission into programmes, the percentage of children under 5 and
an incidence factor.

2 As Step 2, enter the estimated number of new Inpatient and Outpatient admissions per month. This can be based on previous
years' admissions or a prediction of trends. For planning purposes, this tool assumes that the Inpatient admissions receive
Inpatient care followed by Outpatient care, while the numbers entered as Outpatient admissions are for direct Outpatient
admissions who receive the treatment in Outpatient care only.
i.e.: Inpatient new admissions + Outpatient new admissions = Total admissions.

3 Use the table in Step 3 to input the estimated quantity of supplies needed per admission for your programme. (in other
words: the total quantity of nutrition products per treatment per patient). This is an important part of your planning and forecast:
you need to know the system & treatment protocols in place. This should be determined after discussion with your
counterparts and input from your supply/logistics specialist.
The numbers that are given are based on international guidance for programmes comprising inpatient and outpatient care.

4 At Step 4, You have to take into account the supplies you already have in-country and which are being delivered (on order),
including the minimum quantity of supplies you need to keep in stock as a safety stock. For this part you should involve your
Supply/Logistics specialist; it should be based on a sound distribution plan and recent stock information. Without this data your
forecast would be missing an important step.

5 As a final step, 5, input the estimated costs of international Freight, storage and in-country transport, as a percentage of the
total cost of the supplies.

Output: Go to spreadsheet named "Forecast Output" to see the overall needs automatically calculated.
This sheet can assist you with annual planning and fundraising.

Sheet "Calculations" provides a summary of admissions per quarter and overall needs per quarter, plus a stock analysis with
advice.
We hope this can assist you during the year, to compare actual patient numbers and consumption with the forecast and
On Sheet Calculations, you can find:
manage your stock.
• Specific needs for Inpatients summarized in number of sachets/tablets (part units) per quarter.
• Specific needs for Outpatients summarized in number of sachets/tables (part units) per quarter.
• Stock analysis, with advice on your buffer stock and number of units to order.
• Cost information, plus Net and Gross volume and weight per product.

Start: Go to Sheet Inputs

715250218.xls Page 1
• Example input

715250218.xls Page 2
INPUT ASSUMPTIONS TO FORECAST NEEDS FOR THERAPEUTIC FEEDING
User guide for inputting data
• Information should be entered only in the yellow boxes. <Example input box>
• Some of these yellow input boxes can remain zero or empty. Instructions are given if they must be filled.
• User instructions are given in green font. "Ok input" indicates that the input is valid.
• Red font appears if invalid input has been entered or input is missing; the model will not work properly with invalid or missing input.
• The white boxes show calculation results by the model. They should/can not be edited by the user.
• Input step 1 to 5 and then view your forecast results on sheet "Calculation" and "Forecast Output"

1- Profile of the population

Country name
Mali Ok input

Population 12,299,691 Ok input

Percentage of children under 5 (%) 16% Ok input
Number of children under 5 1,967,951
Prevalence of S.A.M. (%) 1% Ok input • Input Prevalence according to the same criteria (WHM or WHZ or MUAC) used for admission into programmes
Incidence of S.A.M. over 1 year 1.5 Ok input • The Incidence multiplying factor can be between 1 and 3, to account for dynamic increase of malnutrition
(multiplying factor) • S.A.M.: Severe Acute Malnutrition
Estimated annual (new) caseload 29,519

2- Estimated number of admissions, per month

• Fill in the table for the coming year based on previous year admissions, a prediction of trends, seasonal malnutrition patterns, the scale up plan and the capacity of the CO partners.
• The Out patient number should be for new admissions who will receive only Outpatient treatment, while the Inpatient number will receive initial treatment in Inpatient followed by Outpatient treatment.

Estimated Admissions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
In patient 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 1,992
Out patient 668 666 668 668 666 668 668 666 668 668 666 668 8,008
Total 834 832 834 834 832 834 834 832 834 834 832 834 10,000

Input verification Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input
Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input Ok input

Estimated Patient Ratio 1- Annual Caseload 2- Admissions Programme Coverage

In patient 20% 5,880 1,992
Out patient 80% 23,639 8,008
Total 100% 29,519 10,000 33.9%

3- Estimated quanitity of supplies, per treatment / child

• Numbers in the yellow cells are figures recommended by the Program Department (NY PD); adjust these based on your actual consumption or projections
• Leakage is a percentage which is added later to the total, to forecast the extra quanitity needed for leakage, wastage, damage and pilferage

In patient (includes RUTF needs for these children once they reach outpatient care )
No. of Part Units per Leakage
Item Part Unit Treatment / child (%)
ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 sachet 84g 0.20 Ok input 10% Ok input
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG sachet 410g 3.00 Ok input 10% Ok input
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG sachet 456g 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input • Set cell D49 to zero if you use RUTF instead of F100 for transition
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 Tab 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 sachet 92g 136.00 Ok input 10% Ok input • This quantity is sufficient for transition in inpatient care and for outpatient care for these children
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 Caps 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 Caps 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 Tab 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input • In cell B54 select Albendazole or Mebendazole for Anti Helminth requirements

Out patient (for children receiving only Out patient care)

No. of Part Units per Leakage
Item Part Unit Treatment / child (%)
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 sachet 92g 136.00 Ok input 10% Ok input
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 Caps 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 Caps 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 Tab 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input • Cell B61 is linked to cell B54
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml Bottle 1.00 Ok input 10% Ok input
10% Average
4- Requirements for Storage
• Emergency stock: supplies kept on hand to cover consumption exceeding the amount forecasted (due to nutrition emergencies and seasonal variation)
• Safety stock: the quantity of supplies used in the total number of months from PGM-issue date to delivery at final delivery point (TFAD)
Emergency and Safety stock are based on the expected monthly usage, which is based on the estimated number of admissions per month (in part 2)
• Units in stock: enter total number of Shipping units (cartons, pacs, bottles) currently in stock at the beginning of the forecast period
• Units in pipeline: are all supplies which have been ordered before this forecast period and are being shipped (en-route) to the port of entry and final delivery points incountry

Months of Emergency Months of Safety stock (Shipping) Units in Units in stock at MoH Units in pipeline/ being Total number of units in
stock required on an required at the start of stock at UNICEF counterpart and shipped to port of entry stock and in the pipeline
ongoing basis the forecast period Country Office implementing partner and in-country final at start of forecast period
(0 - 3 months) (0 - 6 months) warehouse(s) warehouses delivery point

Item Shipping Unit

ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 CAR-130 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 0
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG KG 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 374 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 374
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG KG 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 38 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 38
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 PAC-1000 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 96 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 96
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 CAR-150 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 10,000 Ok input 10,000
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 PAC-500 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 0
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 PAC-500 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 0
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 PAC-100 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 0
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml BOT-100ml 3 Ok input 3 Ok input 1,050 Ok input 0 Ok input 0 Ok input 1,050
3.0 Average 3.0 Average

5- Costs for Shipping: International Freight, clearance and transport to final delivery point in-country
Page 3 Inputs
 Percentage of the costs of supplies 20% Ok input • Transport costs will be calculated as a percentage of the costs of the supplies

Your are finished when you have completed all yellow fields, and there a no RED error messages!
Go to Sheet Forecast Output

Page 4 Inputs
CALCULATION RESULTS FOR THERAPEUTIC FEEDING FORECAST
• All figures on this sheet are calculated automatically based on sheet "Inputs"

2+3: Estimated Quantity of supplies needed per Quarter (incl. leakage)

Estimated Admissions Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total

In patient 498 498 498 498 1,992
Out patient 2,002 2,002 2,002 2,002 8,008
TOTAL 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 10,000

In patient : number of part Units (sachets / tablets / capsules / bottles)

Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 110 110 110 110 438
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG 1,643 1,643 1,643 1,643 6,574
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG 548 548 548 548 2,191
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 548 548 548 548 2,191
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 74,501 74,501 74,501 74,501 298,003
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 548 548 548 548 2,191
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 548 548 548 548 2,191
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 548 548 548 548 2,191

Outpatient : number of part Unit (sachets / tablets / capsules / bottles)

Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 299,499 299,499 299,499 299,499 1,197,997
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 2,202 2,202 2,202 2,202 8,809
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 2,202 2,202 2,202 2,202 8,809
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 2,202 2,202 2,202 2,202 8,809
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml 2,202 2,202 2,202 2,202 8,809

Total: number Shipping Units (CAR / PAC / KG / BOT)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Item
ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 3.37
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG 673.79 673.79 673.79 673.79 2,695.18
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG 249.80 249.80 249.80 249.80 999.19
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 2.19
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 2,493.33 2,493.33 2,493.33 2,493.33 9,973.33
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 22.00
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 22.00
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 27.50 27.50 27.50 27.50 110.00
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml 2,202.20 2,202.20 2,202.20 2,202.20 8,808.80

4: Analysis of Stock and Needs. Number of Units to order

Supplies needed for all Average expected monthly usage Supplies needed for Total number of units in stock Total needs to order new in
admissions in this forecast Safety and Emergency and in the pipeline this forecast period *
period stock
Item Shipping Unit
ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 CAR-130 3.4 0.3 1.7 <-- 0.0 <-- 6 Your current stock is not enough required for safety stock
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG KG 2,695.2 224.6 1,347.6 <-- 374.0 <-- 3,669 Your current stock is not enough required for safety stock
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG KG 999.2 83.3 499.6 <-- 38.0 <-- 1,461 Your current stock is not enough required for safety stock
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 PAC-1000 2.2 0.2 1.1 96.0 <-- -93 You have more stock than needed
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 CAR-150 9,973.3 831.1 4,986.7 10,000.0 4,960 Ok
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 PAC-500 22.0 1.8 11.0 <-- 0.0 <-- 33 Your current stock is not enough required for safety stock
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 PAC-500 22.0 1.8 11.0 <-- 0.0 <-- 33 Your current stock is not enough required for safety stock
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 PAC-100 110.0 9.2 55.0 <-- 0.0 <-- 165 Your current stock is not enough required for safety stock
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml BOT-100ml 8,808.8 734.1 4,404.4 <-- 1,050.0 <-- 12,164 Your current stock is not enough required for safety stock
*Total number of units rounded up to the nearest whole number

5: Total Estimated Cost. Cost of supplies plus shipping

Calculation Page 5
 Gross
Total needs Estimated 20% Freight and Total Cost of supplies Gross Weight Volume
Item Shipping Unit (units) costs of supplies (Us$) Transport (Us$) (Us$) Nett Weight (kg (kg) (cbm)
ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 CAR-130 6 $ 259.56 $ 51.91 $ 311.47 66 67 0.12
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG KG 3,669 $ 13,355.16 $ 2,671.03 $ 16,026.19 3,669 4,036 10.64
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG KG 1,461 $ 6,106.98 $ 1,221.40 $ 7,328.38 1,461 1,607 3.74
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 PAC-1000 0 $ - $ - $ - 0 0 0.00
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 CAR-150 4,960 $ 271,212.80 $ 54,242.56 $ 325,455.36 68,448 74,896 128.96
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 PAC-500 33 $ 189.75 $ 37.95 $ 227.70 8 8 0.03
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 PAC-500 33 $ 268.95 $ 53.79 $ 322.74 8 8 0.02
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 PAC-100 165 $ 346.50 $ 69.30 $ 415.80 15 15 0.05
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml BOT-100ml 12,164 $ 7,298.40 $ 1,459.68 $ 8,758.08 1,569 1,569 5.17
TOTAL $ 299,038.10 $ 59,807.62 $ 358,845.72 82,206 148.73
(Kg) (Cbm)

Calculation Page 6
 Mali
Annual Therapeutic feeding Forecast Results
For 12 Months starting 1 January, 2009

Given an estimated prevalence of Severe Acute Malnutrition (S.A.M.) of 1% and a Therapeutic Feeding target number of admissions of
10000, Mali will need to procure in the next year nutrition supplies at a total cost of $ 358845.72

When the target number of admissions is reached, the Therapeutic Feeding will have an estimated coverage of 33.9%, based on an annual
caseload of 29519.2584 Severe Acute Malnourished children.

The following summary includes the additional quantity needed for a 3 month emergency stock plus 3 month safety stock and takes into account the
nutrition supplies currently in stock in-country and in the pipeline, including 10% to account for wastage and leakage.

Note: This forecast does not include guidance on what needs to be in place to programme these supplies appropriately to reach the children in need,
nor the costs involved in this. For more information on these aspects please refer to: UNICEF Programme Guidance February 2008, Management of
Severe Acute Malnutrition in Children. The forecast also doesn't include other consumables (e.g. soap, blankets, stationary, etc.).

Total number of admissions (per quarter)

Total number of
Estimated no. of Patients Jan - Mar 2009 Apr - Jun 2009 Jul - Sep 2009 Oct - Dec 2009 admissions this year

In Patient 498 498 498 498 1,992

Out Patient 2,002 2,002 2,002 2,002 8,008
TOTAL 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 10,000

Total number of supplies (shipping units per quarter)

Number of supplies
Nutrition supplies Jan - Mar 2009 Apr - Jun 2009 Jul - Sep 2009 Oct - Dec 2009 needed this year

ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 4

F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG 673.79 673.79 673.79 673.79 2,696
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG 249.80 249.80 249.80 249.80 1,000
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 3
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 2,493.33 2,493.33 2,493.33 2,493.33 9,974
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 22
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 22
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 27.50 27.50 27.50 27.50 110
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml 2,202.20 2,202.20 2,202.20 2,202.20 8,809
*Total number of units rounded up to the nearest whole number

To be procured (shipping units)

Number of supplies
Number of supplies Supplies needed for Supplies in stock to be procured
Nutrition supplies
needed this year safety stock and in the pipeline
ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 4 1.7 - 6
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG 2,696 1,347.6 374 3,669
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG 1,000 499.6 38 1,461
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 3 1.1 96 -
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 9,974 4,986.7 10,000 4,960
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 22 11.0 - 33
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 22 11.0 - 33
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 110 55.0 - 165
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml 8,809 4,404.4 1,050 12,164

Procurement Costs Total Costs of

Estimated costs of 20% Freight and supplies
Nutrition supplies (in 2009)
supplies Transport
ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 $ 259.56 $ 51.91 $ 311.47
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG $ 13,355.16 $ 2,671.03 $ 16,026.19
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG $ 6,106.98 $ 1,221.40 $ 7,328.38
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 $ - $ - $ -
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 $ 271,212.80 $ 54,242.56 $ 325,455.36
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 $ 189.75 $ 37.95 $ 227.70
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 $ 268.95 $ 53.79 $ 322.74
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 $ 346.50 $ 69.30 $ 415.80
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml $ 7,298.40 $ 1,459.68 $ 8,758.08
ESTIMATED TOTAL COST (Usd) $ 299,038.10 $ 59,807.62 $ 358,845.72

Page 7 Forecast Output

Weight, Volume and Estimated Costs of different nutrition products

Gross Gross
No. of Part units Net Weight/ Weight/ Volume/ Estimated Price
per Shipping Net Weight per Shipping unit Shipping Shipping unit (Usd) / Shipping
Products Shipping Unit Part Unit Unit Part Unit (kg) (kg) unit (kg) (cdm) unit (5-Jan-09)
ReSoMal, 84g sachet/2L /CAR-130 CAR-130 sachet 84g 130 0.0840 10.92 11.10 20.00 $ 43.26
F75 Therapeutic diet, sachet 448g /KG KG sachet 410g 2.439 0.4100 1.00 1.10 2.90 $ 3.64
F100 Therapeutic diet, sachet 456g /KG KG sachet 456g 2.193 0.4560 1.00 1.10 2.56 $ 4.18
Folic acid 5mg tabs/PAC-1000 PAC-1000 Tab 1,000 0.0001 0.09 0.086 0.228 $ 4.57
Therapeutic spread, sachet 92g /CAR-150 CAR-150 sachet 92g 150 0.0920 13.80 15.10 26.00 $ 54.68
Retinol 100,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 PAC-500 Caps 500 0.0005 0.24 0.238 0.941 $ 5.75
Retinol 200,000IU soft gel.caps/PAC-500 PAC-500 Caps 500 0.0005 0.24 0.244 0.659 $ 8.15
Mebendazole 500 mg tabs/PAC-100 PAC-100 Tab 100 0.0009 0.09 0.09 0.305743 $ 2.71
Amoxici.pdr/oral sus 125mg/5ml/BOT-100ml BOT-100ml Bottle 1 0.1290 0.13 0.129 0.425 $ 0.60
BP100 Therapeutic diet/CAR-9x24x56.8g CAR-9x24 Bar 56.8g 216 0.0568 12.27 13.2 16.00 $ 54.66
Albendazole 400mg tabs/PAC-100 PAC-100 Tab 100 0.0008 0.08 0.077 0.249 $ 2.10
Mebendazole 500 mg tabs/PAC-100

• Prices are indicative only. Visit UNICEF Supply Catalogue online and select 'Login' to see the latest prices per product. -> http://www.supply.unicef.dk/catalogue/
Note: For Retinol, Folic Acid, Mebendazole, Amoxici.pdr, Albendazole; Net weights are approximate, based on Gross weight

Page 8 Products