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1) The study evaluates approaches for generating future weather files using statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to assess impacts on building energy performance under changing climate conditions over three future 30-year periods. 2) Weather files generated with dynamic methods better represent extreme conditions compared to statistical methods and show increasing average temperatures and higher peak cooling demands over time. 3) Considering extreme weather years is important for accurately simulating building energy use under climate change, whereas typical weather files show limitations in capturing impacts of extremes.

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11 views

Article 3

1) The study evaluates approaches for generating future weather files using statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to assess impacts on building energy performance under changing climate conditions over three future 30-year periods. 2) Weather files generated with dynamic methods better represent extreme conditions compared to statistical methods and show increasing average temperatures and higher peak cooling demands over time. 3) Considering extreme weather years is important for accurately simulating building energy use under climate change, whereas typical weather files show limitations in capturing impacts of extremes.

Uploaded by

Haboussi Meriem
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Article title Impacts of future weather data typology on building energy performance
– Investigating long-term patterns of climate change and extreme weather conditions
Year and country of study 24 January 2019 - Suède

Study Duration 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099.


sample Neighborhood
Context and The Building Performance Simulation (BPS) is a crucial tool for designers, enabling the evaluation of proposed designs
Introduction Background in the context of a building's expected climate conditions over its lifespan (NCDC. Test Reference Year (TRY), Tape Reference Manual. TD-9706.
Asheville, North Carolina: National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of Commerce; 1976)

Motivation of the • The use of future weather files to study the impacts of climate change on building performance. ( Yau YH, Hasbi S. A review
of climate change impacts on commercial buildings and their technical services in the tropics. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2013;18:430–41.)
Work • The need to consider extreme conditions in the design and adaptation process of buildings (sévellec F, Drijfhout SS. A novel
probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018–2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend. Nat Commun 2018;9:3024.)

Objective of the • To evaluate and compare major approaches for generating future weather files, employing statistical and
Work dynamical downscaling methods.
• assessing the differences in impact assessments for building energy performance and understanding the
significance of incorporating extreme weather years in Building Performance Simulation (BPS)
• to guide engineers and designers in selecting the most reliable method for generating future weather
data, enhancing the resilience of building designs against the challenges of climate change.

Materials Used • CCWorldWeatherGen tool (Climate Change World Weather Generator )


Material and • WeatherShift™
• Meteonorm
methods • TDY, ECY, and EWY out of RCA4
• EnergyPlus
Procedure • Generation of Meteorological Data:
Creation of 74 meteorological files for three future periods.
Using Geneva as a reference location.
Formatting data according to the EPW (EnergyPlus Weather) format.
• Simulation of 16 commercial building models following the ASHRAE 90.1 standard (EnergyPlus).
• Modeling a Virtual Neighborhood in Geneva (using the 16 models).
• Utilization of three tools (CCWorldWeatherGen, WeatherShift™, Meteonorm) and a regional climate model
(RCA4).
• Harmonization of data for short-term (ST), medium-term (MT), and long-term (LT) periods.
• Using ASHRAE 90.1-compliant building models for energy simulations.
• Categorization of meteorological files into typical and extreme data sets.
• Implementation in modeFRONTIER with MATLAB for 1,184 simulations.
• Analysis of delivered energy for heating, cooling, and total electricity.
• Conversion of delivered energy into primary energy according to Swiss standards.
Statistical Analysis Dynamical and Statistical downscaling

Results Principle results Weather files generated using statistical and dynamic methods exhibit differences.
Dynamic files provide better coverage of extreme conditions.
Typical weather files show weaknesses in representing extreme conditions.
Continuous increase in the average outdoor air temperature.
Typical weather files have a significant impact on building energy demand.
Dynamic files better capture short-term variations induced by climate change.
Extreme weather files show a significant increase in cooling peak demand.
Discussion Strengths The study provides a comprehensive comparison between statistical and dynamic methods for generating future
(Originality) meteorological data.
It highlights the importance of considering extreme conditions in the energy simulation of buildings.
Limitations Typical meteorological files show gaps in representing extreme conditions.
The study uses specific emission scenarios, limiting the generalization of results.
Concordance with
Other Works
Possible Implications The results emphasize the need to consider extreme conditions in the design of buildings and energy systems.
The research suggests the use of dynamic meteorological files for a more accurate representation of climate
variations.
Potential The conclusions can guide the energy-efficient design of buildings to withstand future climatic conditions.
Applications The results can inform policy decisions on climate change adaptation in the construction sector.

Questions Raised How can existing building models with lower thermal performance be affected by climate change?
How can the capacity of urban energy systems be strengthened to cope with increased demand during periods of
extreme conditions?
Conclusion Key Conclusions This work examines downscaling methods for outputs from global climate models (GCMs) and evaluates two
approaches to prepare future meteorological data for building energy simulations.
The study emphasized the importance of considering extreme conditions in studying the impacts of climate change
on larger spatial scales.
Typical meteorological datasets provide sufficient information to study long-term changes in building energy use.
References Relevant References - Jentsch MF, James PAB, Bourikas L, Bahaj AS. Transforming existing weather data for worldwide locations to enable
energy and building performance simulation under future climates. Renew Energy 2013;55:514–24.
- Nik VM. Making energy simulation easier for future climate – synthesizing typical and extreme weather data sets
out of regional climate models (RCMs). Appl Energy 2016;177:204–26.
- Mylona A. The use of UKCP09 to produce weather files for building simulation. Build Serv Eng Res Technol
2012;33:51–62.

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