API Key: cgootem2brtrj0m55210

ADANIPORTS.NS Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd

Price: 641.6 INR
Update date: 2023-Apr-08
Average volume: 1,807,790

Operating country: India

Industry: Transportation Infrastructure

Some important information

Explanation
Override assumption cells? Yes If 'Yes', we adjust yellow cells' values when the tic
Reporting currency: INR
Number of outstanding shares 2,160 millions
Low quartile 40% Used in sensitivity analysis
High quartile 60% Used in sensitivity analysis

Low High
Long-term growth rate 2.0% 4.0%

Hide all models? No Choose 'Yes' (after starting the add-on once) if you
models. Please build your models in new sheets, D
Economic Zone Ltd

nfrastructure

t yellow cells' values when the ticker changes

er starting the add-on once) if you just need financial data to build
build your models in new sheets, DO NOT modify existing sheets
Balance Sheet
(INR in millions) Historical
Mar-2018 Mar-2019 Mar-2020

Cash and cash equivalents 8,243 47,993 71,972

Trade accounts receivable 45,732 29,325 33,569
Short-term investments 26,370 15,814 303
Inventories 5,203 8,067 2,883
Prepaid expenses 18,596 456 547
Other current assets 38,725 44,657 38,926
Current assets 142,869 146,312 148,200
Property Plant And Equipment 229,895 272,644 307,043
Initial value 262,853 318,250 367,952
Accumulated depreciation (32,958) (45,606) (60,909)
Long-term investments 5,591 2,685 11,661
Goodwill 26,671 32,679 32,863
Other intangible assets 15,588 20,726 19,404
Other long-term assets 53,137 90,229 102,866
Non-current assets 330,882 418,963 473,837

Total assets 473,751 565,275 622,037

Trade accounts payable 12,174 14,086 16,434

Short-term loans & liabilities 7,732 65,459 21,572
Accrued expenses 3,129 2,730 3,030
Current Portion of LT Debt/Capital L 8,022 11,198 17,763
Other current liabilities 9,034 10,045 18,166
Current liabilities 40,091 103,518 76,965

Long-term debts 206,290 198,833 261,813

Other liabilities 16,682 17,542 27,024
Total liabilities 263,063 319,893 365,802

Charter capital 4,142 4,142 4,064

Additional paid in capital 25,517 25,517 5,996
Retained earnings 178,241 213,093 242,434
Treasury stock - - -
Other common equity adjustment 2,788 2,630 3,741
Common equity 210,688 245,382 256,235

Minority interest 1,496 2,099 2,196

Total equity 212,184 247,481 258,431

Days sales outstanding (DSO) 147 98 103

Days payable outstanding (DPO) 140 191 199
Days inventory outstanding (DIO) 60 109 35

BS check - - -

Income Statement

(INR in millions) Historical

Mar-2018 Mar-2019 Mar-2020

Revenue 113,230 109,254 118,731

Cost of goods sold (31,747) (26,935) (30,197)
Gross profits 81,483 82,319 88,534

Selling, G&A expenses (9,179) (11,398) (12,203)

Research & Development - - -
Net other income/(expense) (14,181) (13,925) (17,518)

Depreciation & amortisation 11,884 13,735 16,803

EBITDA 70,007 70,731 75,616

Net financial income/(expense) (5,782) (5,733) (16,374)

Profit before tax 52,341 51,263 42,439

Corporate income tax (15,442) (10,815) (4,594)

Net profit after tax 36,899 40,448 37,845

Sales growth n/a -4% 9%

COGS growth n/a -15% 12%
Gross margin 71.96% 75.35% 74.57%
EBITDA margin 61.83% 64.74% 63.69%
SG&A/Revenue -8.11% -10.43% -10.28%
Net margin 32.59% 37.02% 31.87%
Effective tax rate 29.50% 21.10% 10.82%
storical
Mar-2021 Mar-2022

41,995 106,674
31,265 25,211
16,132 5,732
9,919 3,956
999 -
27,997 39,310
128,307 180,884
422,646 -
500,979 -
(78,333) -
11,868 107,930
40,364 67,114
55,330 115,805
94,723 525,124
624,931 815,974

753,238 996,858

22,639 11,596
9,398 2,992
5,022 -
10,977 57,937
24,124 41,162
72,160 113,687

329,355 396,915
45,440 66,374
446,955 576,976

4,064 4,225
5,996 -
292,480 415,658
- -
3,743 -
306,283 419,882

14,685 3,928
 320,968 423,810

91 54
265 87
116 30

- -

storical
Mar-2021 Mar-2022

125,496 171,188
(31,170) (48,420)
94,326 122,768

(13,322) (7,794)
- -
(21,106) (23,816)

21,073 27,396
80,971 118,554

3,022 (33,986)
62,920 57,171

(12,433) (7,640)
50,487 49,532
Average
6% 36%
3% 55%
75.16% 71.72% 73.75%
64.52% 69.25% 64.81%
-10.62% -4.55% -8.80%
40.23% 28.93% 34.13%
19.76% 13.36% 18.91%
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Discounted Cash Flow 5Y Growth Exit

Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate 10.7% - 12.4% 11.57%
Long-term Growth Rate 2% - 4% 3.00%
Fair Price 309.787831054591 - 541.55551367861 400.89
Upside -51.7% - -15.6% -37.5%
 Upside
-37.5%

Stock Price
641.6 INR

Fair Price
400.89 INR
0
Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(INR in millions) Projections

Mar-2022 Mar-2023 Mar-2024

Revenue 171,188 203,431 227,444

% Growth 36% 19% 12%

Cost of goods sold (48,420) (57,540) (64,332)

% of Revenue 28% 28% 28%

Selling, G&A expenses (7,794) (9,262) (10,356)

% of Revenue 5% 5% 5%

Research & Development - - -

% of Revenue 0% 0% 0%

Net interest incomes/expenses (33,986) (40,387) (45,155)

% of Revenue -19.9% -19.9% -19.9%

Other incomes/expenses (23,816) (28,302) (31,642)

% of Revenue -13.9% -13.9% -13.9%

Tax expense (7,640) (13,425) (15,010)

Tax rate 13% 20% 20%

Net profit 49,532 54,515 60,950

% Margin 29% 27% 27%
Projections
Mar-2025 Mar-2026 Mar-2027

266,631 310,087 345,337

17% 16% 11%

(75,416) (87,708) (97,678)

28% 28% 28%

(12,140) (14,118) (15,723)

5% 5% 5%

- - -
0% 0% 0%

(52,934) (61,562) (68,560)

-19.9% -19.9% -19.9%

(37,094) (43,140) (48,044)

-13.9% -13.9% -13.9%

(17,596) (20,463) (22,790)

20% 20% 20%

71,451 83,096 92,542

27% 27% 27%
Change in Working Capital Forecast

(INR in millions except days) Projections

Historical Avg Mar-2022 0 Mar-2023 Mar-2024

Days receivables 83 83 76
Trade receivables 25,211 46,052 47,216

Days payables 184 184 179

Trade payables (11,596) (28,962) (31,504)

Days inventory 60 60 69
Inventory 3,956 9,502 12,117

Net working capital 17,572 26,592 27,829

Change in NWC 9,020 1,237

Capital Expenditure Plan

(INR in millions)

Mar-2023 Mar-2024

Capex 49,712 55,580

% of Revenue 24.4% 24.4%

Historical

5y Avg Mar-2018 Mar-2019

Capex 30,790 27,322 29,405

% of Revenue 24.4% 24.1% 26.9%

Depreciation & Amortization Schedule

Average useful life (years): 5

(INR in millions) Projections
2023 2024
For CAPEX in
2019 5,881
2020 7,243 7,243
2021 4,703 4,703
2022 7,498 7,498
2023 9,942 9,942
2024 11,116
2025
2026
2027

Total depreciation & amortization 35,268 40,503

Projections

Mar-2025 Mar-2026 Mar-2027

71 76 74
51,660 64,883 70,286

150 171 167

(30,984) (41,044) (44,558)

53 61 61
10,940 14,576 16,267

31,616 38,415 41,995

3,786 6,799 3,580

Mar-2025 Mar-2026 Mar-2027

65,157 75,776 84,390

24.4% 24.4% 24.4%

Historical

Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Mar-2022

36,214 23,517 37,492

30.5% 18.7% 21.9%
Projections
2025 2026 2027

4,703
7,498 7,498
9,942 9,942 9,942
11,116 11,116 11,116
13,031 13,031 13,031
15,155 15,155
16,878

46,292 56,743 66,123

 5,881
14,486
14,110
29,993
49,712
55,580
65,157
75,776
84,390
Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Category Low High

Long-term bond rate 7.43% 7.93%

Equity market risk premium 6.92% 7.92%
Adjusted beta 0.73 0.74

Additional risk adjustmen 0.00% 0.50%

Cost of equity 12.49% 14.33%

Tax rate 17.20% 20.29%

Debt/Equity ratio 0.34 0.34
Cost of debt 6.77% 8.61%

After-tax WACC 10.73% 12.41%

Selected WACC 11.57%

Detailed calculations

Tax rate
Co
Mar-2018

Historical tax rate 29.50%

Low tax rate 17.20%

High tax rate 20.29%

Selected tax rate 19.76%

Cost of debt
Method 1 (effective interest rate)

(INR in millions) Mar-2018

Interest expense 11,640

Total debt 222,111

Effective interest rate

Cost of debt 1 6.77%

 (average effective interest rates)

Method 2 (using synthetic ratings)

TTM EBIT 176,759

(/) TTM Interest expense 25,937

TTM Interest coverage ratio 6.81

Estimated default spread 1.18%

Estimated bond rating A

Cost of debt 2 8.61%

Source

https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html

Company History
Mar-2019 Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Mar-2022 Source

21.10% 10.82% 19.76% 13.36% http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~ada

Historical
Mar-2019 Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Mar-2022

14,717 19,239 19,377 25,499

276,009 306,821 355,454 477,682

6.63% 6.97% 6.32% 7.17%

Source http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/ratings.xls

#VALUE!
#VALUE!
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#VALUE!
p://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/countrytaxrates.xls
Enterprise/Equity Value Calculations

(INR in millions) Projections

3M/FY23 FY24

Profit before tax 16,985 75,959

(-) Net interest income/expense (10,097) (45,155)
(+) Depreciation & Armortization 8,817 40,503
EBITDA 35,899 161,617

(-) Tax 3,356 15,010

(-): Capex 12,428 55,580
(-): Change in NWC 2,255 1,237
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 17,859 89,790

Terminal value
WACC / Discount rate 11.57%
Long-term growth rate 3.00%

Timing of FCF (mid year) 0.13 0.75

Present value of FCF 17,617 82,711

Enterprise value 1,269,817

Projection period 364,623 28.7%
Terminal value 905,194 71.3%

(-) Current net debt 403,836

Equity value 865,982

(/) Outstanding share 2,160

Fair price 400.89

#NAME? 400.89

Sensitivity Analysis
Projections
3M/FY23 FY24

WACC 12.41%
Long-term growth rate 2.0%
Terminal value

Present value of FCF 17,600 82,245

Low
Low
Enterprise value 1,073,021
Equity value 669,185
Fair price 309.79
#NAME? 309.79

WACC 10.73%
Long-term growth rate 4.0%
Terminal value

Present value of FCF 17,633 83,184

High
Enterprise value 1,573,672
Equity value 1,169,836
Fair price 541.56
#NAME? 541.56
Projections
FY25 FY26 FY27 Terminal

89,047 103,559 115,332 102,646

(52,934) (61,562) (68,560) (61,019)
46,292 56,743 66,123 56,386
188,273 221,864 250,015 220,051

17,596 20,463 22,790 20,283

65,157 75,776 84,390 75,108
3,786 6,799 3,580 4,722
101,734 118,826 139,255 119,938

1,441,509

1.75 2.75 3.75 4.25

83,996 87,934 92,365 905,194

Projections
FY25 FY26 FY27 Terminal

1,174,669

82,895 86,129 89,789 714,363

 1,854,731

85,121 89,791 95,035 1,202,907

P/E

You can add/delete peer companies in cells B18:B27 (one at a time)

Range Selected
Trailing P/E multiples 12.78x - 18.22x 15.8x
Forward P/E multiples 11.98x - 22.64x 18.15x
Fair Price 302.3346203 - 762.2669586 559.5
Upside #NAME? -12.8%

(INR in millions except Fair price)

Ticker Company Name Market Cap (INR mil) Trailing P/E

ADANIPORTS. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd 1,385,946 15.3x
GDL.NS Gateway Distriparks Ltd 35,691 21.1x
QUB.AX Qube Holdings Ltd 284,540 40.8x
GPPL.NS Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd 56,635 22.6x
600018.SS Shanghai International Port Group Co Ltd 1,516,335 7.4x
NAVKARCORPNavkar Corporation Ltd 8,444 6.7x
144.HK China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd 468,554 5.3x
601018.SS Ningbo Zhoushan Port Co Ltd 855,604 16.3x
601298.SS Qingdao Port International Co Ltd 483,535 9x
601880.SS Liaoning Port Co Ltd 434,123 28.5x

Industry median 15.8x

(*) Profit after tax 90,373
Equity value 1,427,900

(/) Outstanding shares 2,160

Fair price 661.02
#NAME? 661.02

EV / EBITDA

You can add/delete peer companies in cells B56:B65 (one at a time)

 Range Selected
Trailing EV/EBITDA multiples 7.94x - 9.26x 8.4x
Forward EV/EBITDA multiples 6.66x - 11.04x 9.25x
Fair Price 255.772530268892 - 694.3684928 520.2
Upside #NAME? -18.9%

(INR in millions except Fair price)

Trailing
Ticker Company Name Market Cap (INR mil) EV/EBITDA

ADANIPORTS. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd 1,385,946 8.7x
GDL.NS Gateway Distriparks Ltd 35,691 8.1x
GPPL.NS Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd 56,635 10.1x
9303.T Sumitomo Warehouse Co Ltd 103,852 4.1x
600018.SS Shanghai International Port Group Co Ltd 1,516,335 16.9x
NAVKARCORPNavkar Corporation Ltd 8,444 4.4x
3382.HK Tianjin Port Development Holdings Ltd 36,615 3.7x
144.HK China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd 468,554 19.3x
601018.SS Ningbo Zhoushan Port Co Ltd 855,604 13.9x
601298.SS Qingdao Port International Co Ltd 483,535 7.7x

Industry median 8.4x

(*) EBITDA 205,591
Enterprise value 1,726,961

(-) Net debt 403,836

Equity value 1,323,125

(/) Outstanding shares 2,160

Fair price 612.52
#NAME? 612.52
 Upside
-12.8%

Stock Price
641.6 INR

Fair Price
559.53 INR

Sensitivity Analysis

Low High
Forward P/E Trailing P/E Forward P/E Trailing P/E
25.4x Industry multiple 12.78x 11.98x 18.22x
26.4x (*) Profit after tax 90,373 54,515 90,373
32x Equity value 1,154,972 653,085 1,646,603
22x
7.6x (/) Outstanding shares 2,160 2,160 2,160
8.5x Fair price 534.67 302.33 762.27
5.3x #NAME? 534.67 302.33 762.27
14.3x
7.4x
23.6x

18.15x
54,515
989,440

2,160
458.04
458.04

Upside
-18.9%
Stock Price
641.6 INR

Fair Price
520.23 INR

Sensitivity Analysis
Low High
Forward Trailing Forward Trailing
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA

12.5x Industry multiple 7.94x 6.66x 9.26x

14.6x (*) EBITDA 205,591 143,595 205,591
12.2x Enterprise value 1,632,389 956,340 1,903,769
5.1x
11.4x (-) Net debt 403,836 403,836 403,836
2.4x Equity value 1,228,554 552,504 1,499,933
2.8x
10.8x (/) Outstanding shares 2,160 2,160 2,160
7.7x Fair price 568.74 255.77 694.37
4.7x #NAME? 568.74 255.77 694.37

9.25x
143,595
1,328,250

403,836
924,415

2,160
427.94
427.94
High
Forward P/E

22.64x
54,515
1,234,211

2,160
571.36
571.36
High
Forward
EV/EBITDA

11.04x
143,595
1,585,285

403,836
1,181,449

2,160
546.93
546.93
Earnings Power Value

Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate 10.7% - 12.4% 11.57%
Normalized Earnings 60,492 60,492
Fair Price 38.6217263995716 - 74.1509945244066 56.4
Upside -94% - -88.4% -91.2%

Historical
(INR in millions)
Mar-2018 Mar-2019

Revenue 113,230 109,254

Sustainable revenue 138,472

Gross margin 71.96% 75.35%

Sustainable gross margin 73.81%

Sustainable gross profit 102,213

Research & Development - -

Selling, G&A expense 9,179 11,398
Total operating expenses 9,179 11,398
% of Revenue 8.11% 10.43%

(-) Maintenance operating expenses 11,106

Normalized EBIT 91,106

Tax rate 29.50% 21.10%

Selected tax rate 19.76%

After-tax Normalized EBIT 73,104

Capex 27,322 29,405

Depreciation & Armortization 11,884 13,735
Difference 15,438 15,670
(-) 5y Average Difference 12,612

Normalized Earnings 60,492

Low High

Normalized Earnings 60,492 60,492

(/) WACC 12.41% 10.73%

Enterprise Value 487,264 564,012

(-) Net debt 403,836 403,836

Equity Value 83,428 160,177

(/) Outstanding shares 2,160 2,160

Fair price 38.62 74.15

#NAME? 38.62 74.15
 Upside
-91.2%

Stock Price
641.6 INR

Fair Price
56.39 INR

Historical

Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Mar-2022

118,731 125,496 171,188

74.57% 75.16% 71.72%

- - -
12,203 13,322 7,794
12,203 13,322 7,794
10.28% 10.62% 4.55%

10.82% 19.76% 13.36%

36,214 23,517 37,492

16,803 21,073 27,396
19,411 2,444 10,095
Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

Range Selected
Long-term Growth Rate 2% - 4% 3.00%
Cost of Equity 12.5% - 14.3% 13.41%
Fair Price 237.5731272 - 443.5272073 340.6
Upside -63% - -30.9% -46.9%

(INR in millions except Fair price)

Low High

Stable payout ratio 70% 90%

(*) TTM Profit after tax 90,373 90,373
Adjusted dividends 63,261 81,336

Cost of equity 14.33% 12.49%

Long-term growth rate 2.00% 4.00%
Equity value 513,191 958,081

(/) Outstanding share 2,160 2,160

Fair price 237.57 443.53
#NAME? 237.57 443.53

Discounted Dividend Model - Multi Stage

Range Selected
Long-term Growth Rate 2% - 4% 3.00%
Cost of Equity 12.5% - 14.3% 13.41%
Fair Price 211.3944855 - 301.2678826 248.1
Upside -67.1% - -53% -61.3%
Current payout ratio 11.62%
Stable payout ratio 90.00%

(INR in millions) Projections

3M/FY23 FY24

Profit after tax 13,629 60,950

Payout ratio 12% 27%

Estimated paid dividends 1,584 16,637

Cost of equity 13.41%

Long-term growth rate 3.00%

Timing of dividends (mid year) 0.13 0.75

Present value of dividends 1,559 15,139

Equity value 535,933

(/) Outstanding shares 2,160
Fair price 248.10
#NAME? 248.10

Sensitivity Analysis
Projections
3M/FY23 FY24
Cost of equity 14.33%
Long-term growth rate 2.0%
Present value of dividends 1,557 15,047
Low
Equity value 456,642
Fair price 211.39
#NAME? 211.39

Cost of equity 12.49%

Long-term growth rate 4.0%

Present value of dividends 1,560 15,231

High
Equity value 650,781
High

Fair price 301.27

#NAME? 301.27
 Upside
-46.9%

Stock Price
641.6 INR

Fair Price
340.55 INR

Upside
-61.3%

Stock Price
641.6 INR

Fair Price
248.1 INR
Projections
FY25 FY26 FY27 Terminal

71,451 83,096 92,542 82,363

43% 59% 74% 90%

30,704 48,734 68,781 74,127

1.75 2.75 3.75 4.25

24,636 34,479 42,909 417,211

Projections
FY25 FY26 FY27 Terminal

24,290 33,723 41,630 340,394

24,989 35,259 44,238 529,503

Appendix

Year Historical Capex Most current reporting period

2012 n/a Most current fiscal year end
2013 n/a Number of months difference between 2 pe
2014 12,460
2015 18,010 Is a financial institution?
2016 21,248 no
2017 37,482 Current net debt
2018 27,322
2019 29,405 Is reporting currency same as trading curr
2020 36,214
2021 23,517 Exchange rate (INR/INR):
2022 37,492
2023 n/a
2024 n/a
2025 n/a
2026 n/a
2027 n/a
2028 n/a
2029 n/a
2030 n/a
 2022-12-31
2022-03-31
3 (12 means they are the same period)

No
no
403,836

Yes

1
 1

no