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Probability
Probability
● Classical Probability
● Conditional Probability and Independent Events
● Total Probability law
● Baye’s Theorem
● Random Variable and Probability Distribution
● Bernoulli’s trial and Binomial Distribution
Classical Probability
We have been doing this basic definition of probability from 10th
class. Before learning any new concept let’s practice it little more.
 Question!

Q (a) Out of 5 men & 4 women, a committee of 6 persons is

made randomly. Find the probability that it constitutes of 3
men & 3 women.
(b) 4 distinct apples & 3 distinct oranges are randomly
placed in a row. What is the probability that terminal position
are taken by oranges.
(c) A box contains 5 red balls & 4 black balls. 3 balls are
selected randomly. Find the probability that 2 are red & 1 is
black.
 Question!

Q (a) Out of 5 men & 4 women, a committee of 6 persons is

made randomly. Find the probability that it constitutes of 3
men & 3 women.
Solution :

Here, total number of ways = 9C6

n(S) = 84
Required number of ways = 5C3 × 4C3
n(A) = 40
 Question!

Q (b) 4 distinct apples & 3 distinct oranges are randomly

placed in a row. What is the probability that terminal position
are taken by oranges.
Solution :

Here n(S) = 7!
⸫ Required no. of ways
 Question!

Q (c) A box contains 5 red balls & 4 black balls. 3 balls are
selected randomly. Find the probability that 2 are red & 1 is
black.

Remark

In such cases balls are always considered distinct, even if

balls of same colour are given to be identical.
Solution :

Here, total number of ways = 9C3

n(S) = 84
Required number of ways = 5C2 × 4C1
n(A) = 40
 Question!

Q Twelve balls are distributed among three boxes. Find the

probability that the first box will contain three balls.
Solution :
Since each ball can be put into any one of the three boxes.
So, the total number of ways in which 12 balls can be put into
three boxes is 312.
Out of 12 balls, 3 balls can be chosen in 12C3 ways for first box.
Now, remaining 9 balls can be put in the remaining 2 boxes in
29 ways.
So, the total number of ways in which 3 balls are put in the first
box and the remaining balls in other two boxes is 12C3 × 29.

Hence, required probability is

 Question!

Q (a) 3 numbers are randomly drawn from the set

{1, 2, 3, …., 300}. Find the probability that sum of these 3
numbers is divisible by 3
(b) If the integers m & n are chosen at random from 1 to 100
(m & n can be equal also), then the probability that a number
of the form 7m + 7n is divisible by 5.
 Question!

Q (a) 3 numbers are randomly drawn from the set

{1, 2, 3, …., 300}. Find the probability that sum of these 3
numbers is divisible by 3
Solution : Here, numbers can be arranged as

So here, if we choose all three numbers from any column

Then sum will be divisible by 3
Also, if we take one each from each column, then also
sum will be divisible by 3
Solution :

⸫ Required number of ways = (3 × 100C3) + (100C1 × 100C1 × 100C1)

n(A) = 11617
Total number of ways n(S) = 300C3
 Question!

Q (b) If the integers m & n are chosen at random from 1 to 100

(m & n can be equal also), then the probability that a number
of the form 7m + 7n is divisible by 5.
Solution : Here,

Thus, unit place of 7r

Solution :

For 7m + 7n to be divisible by 5, it should end in 0

Thus either 7 + 3 or 9 + 1
⸫ Required number of ways = 2 × (25C1 × 25C1) + 2 × (25C1 × 25C1)
n(A) = 2500
Recall

Odds in favour of event A

Odds against event A

Recall

Odds in favour of event A

Odds against event A

 Question!

Q A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. A gambler bets that

it is a spade or an ace. What are the odds against his
winning this bet?
Solution :
 Question!

Q The chance of an event happening is square of chance of

second event happening but the odds against first is cube of
odds against the second. Find chances of events
Solution :

Let first event is A and second event is B

Then, according to question
P(A) = (P(B))2 ….(i) and

Let P(A) is x and P(B) is y

Solution : Solving (i) and (ii), we get

Using (i),
Recall

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)
 Question!

Q If P(A ∪ B) = 0.6 & P(A ∩ B) = 0.2 then find P(AC) + P(BC)

A 1.2

B 1.3

C 1.4

D 1.5
 Question!

Q If P(A ∪ B) = 0.6 & P(A ∩ B) = 0.2 then find P(AC) + P(BC)

A 1.2

B 1.3

C 1.4

D 1.5
Solution :
 Question!

Q A box contains 6 nails and 10 nuts. Half of the nails and half
of the nuts are rusted. If one item is chosen at random, then
find the probability that it is rusted or is a nail.
Solution :
Remark
As we use Venn diagram for cardinality problems of sets, same
way Venn diagrams are used here in probability problems.
 Question!

Q If &
then P(B ∩ C) =

A IIT 2002

D
 Question!

Q If &
then P(B ∩ C) =

A IIT 2002

D
Solution :

Here,

C c
e b B
f g
a d
A
Observation
Conditional Probability and
Independent Events
Probability of occurrence of event A given that event B has already
occurred is known as conditional probability.

i.e.
Probability of occurrence of event A given that event B has already
occurred is known as conditional probability.

i.e.

d
a c b
A B
 Question!

Q (a) If , then
find P(A ∪ B)
(b) Two dice are thrown. Find the probability that sum of the
numbers coming up on them is 9, if it is known that the
number 5 always occurs on the first die.
 Question!

Q (a) If , then
find P(A ∪ B)
Solution :

Given,

Similarly,
 Question!

Q (b) Two dice are thrown. Find the probability that sum of the
numbers coming up on them is 9, if it is known that the
number 5 always occurs on the first die.
Solution :
 Question!

Q If , & then

D None
 Question!

Q If , & then

D None
Solution :

Given, Also,
Solution : We require,
 Question!

Q (a) A box contains 100 tickets 1, 2, …., 100. 2 tickets are

drawn at random. It is given that the greater number of the
two tickets is less than or equal to 10. Find the probability
that smaller number is 5.
(b) If then find
 Question!

Q (a) A box contains 100 tickets 1, 2, …., 100. 2 tickets are

drawn at random. It is given that the greater number of the
two tickets is less than or equal to 10. Find the probability
that smaller number is 5.
Solution :
Let A be the event that two tickets drawn has number
less than or equal to 10
Let B be the event that two tickets drawn have smaller
number as 5
Here, we require
 Question!

Q (b) If

then find
Solution :

Given,
d
a c b
A B
We need
Solution :

Here, a + b + c + d = 1
Using (1), (2) and (3)
0.5 + 0.4 + d = 1
d = 0.1
⇒ b = 0.2, c = 0.2
 Multiple choice questions Question!

Q Let X and Y be two events such that

A JEE Adv 2017

D
 Multiple choice questions Question!

Q Let X and Y be two events such that

A JEE Adv 2017

D
Solution :
Observation

(a)
This is called multiplication theorem.
General:
Observation

(b) Two events are independent if

i.e.
Note
If A & B are independent events then so are ,
Note
If A & B are independent events then so are ,

Proof:
Lets prove that if A & B are independent then so are
Lets first do few questions on multiplication theorem & then we
will pick independent events examples.
 Question!

Q A bag contains 20 balls of which 8 are red & 12 are blue. 3

balls are taken out one by one without replacement. Find the
probability that first & second are blue & third is red.
Solution : Let event B1 represent 1st ball drawn is blue
B2 represent 2nd ball drawn is blue
R3 represents 3rd ball drawn is red
We require,
 Question!

Q There are 10 cards, 5 of these have ‘I’ & other 5 have ‘T’
printed on them. 3 cards are drawn one by one without
replacement & are kept in same order, then probability of
making the word IIT is

D
 Question!

Q There are 10 cards, 5 of these have ‘I’ & other 5 have ‘T’
printed on them. 3 cards are drawn one by one without
replacement & are kept in same order, then probability of
making the word IIT is

D
Solution :
Here we need two cards to be taken out as ‘I’ card and
one ‘T’ card
Observation
By now, you must have observed that multiplication theorem
comes into play when order matters.
Remark
Drawing ‘r’ cards one by one without replacement & drawing ‘r’
cards randomly, are equivalent if order does not matter.

Eg: There are 10 cards, 5 of them have ‘I’ & other five have ‘T’
printed on them. 3 cards are draw one by one without replacement
then probability of getting 2 I’s & 1 T is:
Now, lets pick another variety of question, majorly based upon
independent events & mutually exclusive events.
Recall
(a) If A & B are independent events then

(b) If A & B are Mutually Exclusive events then

 Question!

Q Let A & B be two events such that P(A) = 0.3 & P(A ∪ B) = 0.8
If A & B are independent events, then P(B) =

A 0.58

B 0.71

C 1.25

D 1.56
 Question!

Q Let A & B be two events such that P(A) = 0.3 & P(A ∪ B) = 0.8
If A & B are independent events, then P(B) =

A 0.58

B 0.71

C 1.25

D 1.56
Solution :
Since A & B are independent events, then
 Question!

Q Let A & B be two events such that ,

& where stands for complement of event A. Then
events A & B are

A JEE Main 2014

Independent but not equally likely

B Independent & equally likely

C ME & independent

D Equally likely but not independent

 Question!

Q Let A & B be two events such that ,

& where stands for complement of event A. Then
events A & B are

A JEE Main 2014

Independent but not equally likely

B Independent & equally likely

C ME & independent

D Equally likely but not independent

Solution :

As
 Multiple choice questions Question!

Q Let X and Y be two events such that

and which of the following is (are) correct?

A IIT - JEE - 2012

B X and Y are independent

C X and Y are not independent

D
 Multiple choice questions Question!

Q Let X and Y be two events such that

and which of the following is (are) correct?

A IIT - JEE - 2012

B X and Y are independent

C X and Y are not independent

D
Solution :
 Question!

Q Find the probability of getting at least one tail in 4 tosses of a

coin.
Solution :
 Question!

Q Four persons independently solve a certain problem correctly

with probabilities Then, the probability that the
problem is solved correctly by at least one of them, is

A JEE Adv 2013

D
 Question!

Q Four persons independently solve a certain problem correctly

with probabilities Then, the probability that the
problem is solved correctly by at least one of them, is

A JEE Adv 2013

D
Solution :

Probability that the problem is solved correctly by atleast

one of them = 1 – (Problem not solved by all)
 Question!

Q A can solve 90% of problems while B can solve 70% of

problems given in a book. What is the probability that a
randomly selected problem from the book
(i) will be solved.
(ii) Only one of A or B solve the problem
Solution :

Let A and B are events to solve a problem by A and B respectively

(i) So, we require problem will be solved

Solution :

(ii) We require only one of A or B solve the problem

 Question!

Q Three students appear at an examination of JEE Advanced.

The probabilities of their success are
respectively. Find the probability of success of at least two.
Solution :
 Question!

Q (a) Ram plays 3 games of chess with Shyam. Probability

that Ram wins it 0.5, that he loses is 0.3 while for tie its 0.2.
Find the probability that Ram wins exactly 2 games
(b) In a tournament of 4 matches between India & Australia,
probability India winning a match is 0.6, for India losing a
match its 0.3 while match ends in a tie with probability 0.1
India wins the tournament if it wins at least 3 matches. Find
probability that India wins the tournament.
 Question!

Q (a) Ram plays 3 games of chess with Shyam. Probability

that Ram wins it 0.5, that he loses is 0.3 while for tie its 0.2.
Find the probability that Ram wins exactly 2 games
Solution :
Here let A, B and C be the events of Ram winning, losing
and Tie for a game

Now, out of two games, either he can win 2 and draw 1 or

win 2 and tie 1

⸫ Required probability
 Question!

Q (b) In a tournament of 4 matches between India & Australia,

probability India winning a match is 0.6, for India losing a
match its 0.3 while match ends in a tie with probability 0.1
India wins the tournament if it wins at least 3 matches. Find
probability that India wins the tournament.
Solution :

Given, P(A) = 0.6

P(B) = 0.3
P(C) = 0.1
⸫ Required probability
 Question!

Q In a game two persons A & B both draw a card from a pack of

52 cards one by one (replacing the card each time after draw)
until an ace is obtained. The first one to draw an ace wins the
game. If A starts the game, then find the probability that A
wins the game.
Solution :

Here, A be the event that A draws a Ace card and A′ be the

event that A draws some other card
⸫ Probability that A wins the game
Total Probability Law
 Question!

Q Three bags contains white & black balls as per following:

Probabilities of selecting Bag 1, Bag 2 & Bag 3 are 0.2, 0.3

& 0.5 respectively. A ball is randomly selected. Find the
probability that ball is white.
Solution :

Let event E1 = Ball is drawn from Bag 1

E2 = Ball is drawn from Bag 2
E3 = Ball is drawn from Bag 3
A = White ball is selected.
Solution :
Probability of ball drawn is white
Note
In above question, had probabilities of Bag1, 2 & 3 been not
given, then we would have taken it to be ⅓ for all the three bags
 Question!

Q There are two bags, one of which contains 3 black and 4 white
balls while the other contains 4 black and 3 white balls. A die is
cast. If the face 1 or 3 turns up, a ball is taken from the first
bag, and if any other face turn up, a ball is chosen from the
second bag. Find the probability of choosing a black ball.
Solution :
Remark

This is nothing but Total Probability.

E1 E3
A

E2
 Question!

Q Box 1 contain 5 white & 2 black balls while Box 2 contain 3

white & 4 black balls. A ball is randomly drawn from Box 1 &
is shifted to Box 2. Now a ball is drawn from Box 2, find the
probability that its black.

D
 Question!

Q Box 1 contain 5 white & 2 black balls while Box 2 contain 3

white & 4 black balls. A ball is randomly drawn from Box 1 &
is shifted to Box 2. Now a ball is drawn from Box 2, find the
probability that its black.

D
Solution :

Let Event E1 = White ball is shifted from box 1

E2 = Black ball is shifted from box 1
A = Ball drawn from Box 2 is black
 Question!

Q A person goes to office either by car, scooter, bus or train,

probability of which being & respectively.
Probability that he reaches office late, if he takes car,
scooter, bus or train is & respectively. Find the
probability that he reaches office in time.

A B C D
 Question!

Q A person goes to office either by car, scooter, bus or train,

probability of which being & respectively.
Probability that he reaches office late, if he takes car,
scooter, bus or train is & respectively. Find the
probability that he reaches office in time.

A B C D
Solution : Let E , E , E and E be the events of person using car,
1 2 3 4

scooter, bus or train respectively

Let A be the event of person reaching office on time
According to question

Probabilities of reaching office in time will be

Solution :

⸫ Probability of person reaches office in time

 Question!

Q An urn contains 5 red and 2 green balls. A ball is drawn at

random from the urn. If the drawn balls is green, then a red
ball is added to the urn and if the drawn ball is red, then a
green ball is added to the urn; the original ball is not
returned to the urn. Now, a second ball is drawn at random
from it. The probability that the second ball is red, is

A JEE Main 2019

D
 Question!

Q An urn contains 5 red and 2 green balls. A ball is drawn at

random from the urn. If the drawn balls is green, then a red
ball is added to the urn and if the drawn ball is red, then a
green ball is added to the urn; the original ball is not
returned to the urn. Now, a second ball is drawn at random
from it. The probability that the second ball is red, is

A JEE Main 2019

D
Solution :
 Question!

Q 16 players S1, S2, …., S16 play in tournament. They are divided
into 8 pairs at random. From each pair a winner is decided on
the basis of game played between the two players of the pair.
Assume that all players are of equal strength then, find
probability that:
(a) S1 is among 8 winners
(b) exactly one of S1 & S2 is among 8 winners.
IIT 1997
Solution :

(a) As all players are of equal strength, so in any

pair probability of both players is
Hence probability that S1 is among winners is

(b) E1 = S1 & S2 are paired

E2 = S1 & S2 are not paired
A = exactly one of S1 & S2 wins.
Solution :

(Favourable ways: (S1, S2),

Total ways: (S1, S2), (S1, S3), …., (S1, S16))

(P(S1 wins & S2 lose) + P(S1 lose & S2 wins))

Baye’s Theorem
Now, let’s pick Baye’s theorem. Again first let’s consider an
example to understand it before formulating it formally.
 Question!

Q There are 3 bags which are known to contains white & black
balls as:

Probabilities of Bag 1, 2 & 3 being selected is 0.2, 0.3 & 0.5

respectively. A ball is drawn at random & is found to be
white. Find the probability that it came from Bag 1.
Solution :

Let E1 = Bag 1 is selected

E2 = Bag 2 is selected
E3 = Bag 3 is selected
A = White ball is drawn.
Try to observe we need to find
Solution :

Now,

(Note this step)

Remark

(a) Baye’s Theorem:

(b) Whenever the outcome of an experiment is given &

probability of it being occurring through a particular path is
asked, then Baye’s theorem is applied. Paths are denoted by
Ei’s & outcome is denoted by A.
 Question!

Q (a) 1 ball is randomly drawn from 2 boxes. and is

found to be red. Find the probability that it came from box I
(b) There are 10 coins out of which 9 are normal and one is
double headed. A coin is chosen randomly and tossed 5
times. It showed heads each time. What is the probability that
coin is double headed.
(c) Box 1 contains 4 red and 5 white balls, box 2 contains 3
red and 2 white. 2 balls are drawn from box I and are
transferred to box II. 1 ball is then drawn from box II. Find the
probability that transferred balls were both red given that ball
drawn from box II is white.
 Question!

Q (a) 1 ball is randomly drawn from 2 boxes. and is

found to be red. Find the probability that it came from box I
Solution :
E1: Ball comes from box I
E2: Ball comes from box II
A: Red ball is selected
 Question!

Q (b) There are 10 coins out of which 9 are normal and one is
double headed. A coin is chosen randomly and tossed 5
times. It showed heads each time. What is the probability
that coin is double headed.
Solution :
E1 = Double headed coin is selected
E2 = normal coin is selected
A = shows Heads 5 time
 Question!

Q (c) Box 1 contains 4 red and 5 white balls, box 2 contains 3

red and 2 white. 2 balls are drawn from box I and are
transferred to box II. 1 ball is then drawn from box II. Find
the probability that transferred balls were both red given that
ball drawn from box II is white.
Solution : E1 = Both red balls are drawn
E2 = Both white balls are drawn
E3 = 1 red and 1 white ball is drawn
A = white ball is drawn from box II
Solution :
 Question!

Q Box I contains 30 cards numbered 1 to 30 and Box II

contains 20 cards numbered 31 to 50. A box is selected at
random and a card is drawn from it. The number on the card
is found to be non-prime number. The probability that the
card was drawn from Box I is

A JEE Main 2020

D
 Question!

Q Box I contains 30 cards numbered 1 to 30 and Box II

contains 20 cards numbered 31 to 50. A box is selected at
random and a card is drawn from it. The number on the card
is found to be non-prime number. The probability that the
card was drawn from Box I is

A JEE Main 2020

D
Solution :
 Question!

Q A pack of playing cards was found to contain only 51 cards.

If first 13 cards which are examined are all red then find the
probability that missing card is black.
Solution : E1 = missing card is black
E2 = missing card is red
A = first 13 cards are red
Solution :
 Question!

Q A speaks the truth 2 out of 3 times and B speaks truths 4

times out of 5. They agree in the assertion that from a bag
containing 6 balls of different colors a red ball has been
drawn. Find the probability that the statement is true.
Solution :
Solution :
Random Variable and its
Probability Distribution
Random Variable:
Let S be the sample space associated with given experiment. The real
valued function ‘X’ whose domain is S is called a random variable.
Probability Distribution Function:
If a random variable takes value x1, x2, …., xn with respective
probabilities P1, P2, …., Pn. Then

is called Probability Distribution Function of ‘x’.

Eg: Two coins are tossed simultaneously. Let ‘X’ be the
number of tails appeared then
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
X = No. of tails appeared.
Here X is a random variable & its PDF is
Remark

(a) Mean (or Expectation) of X i.e.

Here,

(b) Variance of X i.e.

Here is nothing but mean value of ‘X’ i.e. E(X)

 Question!

Q Two coins are tossed simultaneously. Find E(X) & V(X),

where X is number of tails appeared.
Solution :

So,
 Question!

Q Let ‘n’ denote number of hours you study during a randomly

selected school day. The probability that X can take value
‘n’, has following form, where K is some unknown constant.

(a) Find value of ‘k’

(b) What is probability you study at least 2 hours.
(c) What is expected number of study hours
Solution :
PDF of X:

(a)
Solution :

(b) Here we require,

(c)
 Question!

Q Let C1 and C2 be two biased coins such that the probabilities of

getting head in a single toss are respectively.
Suppose ⍺ is the number of heads that appear when C1 is
tossed twice, independently, and suppose β is the number of
heads that appear when C2 is tossed twice, independently.
Then the probability that the roots of the quadratic polynomial
x2 - ⍺x + β are real and equal, is

JEE Adv 2020

A B

C D
 Question!

Q Let C1 and C2 be two biased coins such that the probabilities of

getting head in a single toss are respectively.
Suppose ⍺ is the number of heads that appear when C1 is tossed twice,
independently, and suppose β is the number of heads that appear when
C2 is tossed twice, independently. Then the probability that the roots of
the quadratic polynomial
x2 - ⍺x + β are real and equal, is

JEE Adv 2020

 Question!

Q Let C1 and C2 be two biased coins such that the probabilities of

getting head in a single toss are respectively.
Suppose ⍺ is the number of heads that appear when C1 is
tossed twice, independently, and suppose β is the number of
heads that appear when C2 is tossed twice, independently.
Then the probability that the roots of the quadratic polynomial
x2 - ⍺x + β are real and equal, is

JEE Adv 2020

A B

C D
Solution :
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial
Distribution
Bernoulli trial
Trials of a random experiment are called Bernoulli trials if

(a) There are finite number of trials

(b) Trials are independent
(c) Each trial has exactly two outcomes: Success or failure
(d) Probability of success remains same in each trial
Binomial distribution:

It can be easily observed that when Bernoulli’s trial is repeated ‘n’

times, then probability of getting ‘r’ successes and n – r failures is
given by
Where random variable ‘X’ is representing number of successes, p is
probability of success & q is probability of failure
Clearly p + q = 1

Remark
Here, X is said to follow binomial distribution with parameters ‘n’ & ‘p’
 Question!

Q A drunkard takes a step forward or backward with

then what is the probability that after 3 steps,
(i) he is 1 step ahead of initial position.
(ii) he is 1 step away from initial position.
Solution :

(i) Here, if he take 2 steps forward (ii) Here, if he take 1 step forward
and 1 step backward, then he is 1 and 2 steps backward, then he is 1
step ahead of initial position. step away from initial position.
Using Binomial distribution, Using Binomial distribution,
We get We get
 Question!

Q A box contains 24 identical balls of which 12 are white and

12 are black. The balls are drawn at random from the box
one at a time with replacement. Find the probability that a
white ball is drawn for the fourth time on 7th draw?
Solution : Here, we need 7th drawn ball to be white, such that before it 3
white balls have been drawn out of previous 6 draws
Using binomial distribution
Probability of drawing white ball p =

Probability of drawing black ball q =

⸫ Required probability =
 Question!

Q 5 coins whose faces are 2 and 3 are thrown. Find the

probability of getting a total of 12?
Solution : We need three 2’s and two 3’s
Using binomial distribution
Probability of getting a 2’s face p

Probability of getting a 3’s face q

⸫ Required probability =
 Question!

Q Two fair dice are thrown simultaneously. If the operation is

repeated 5 times, find the probability that the sum will be 7
exactly 4 times.
Solution :
 Question!

Q An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Then find

the probability that in the next 6 trials, there will be at least 4
successes.
Solution :
If X follows Binomial distribution where trial is repeated n times &
probability of success is p then it is written as: X : B(n, p)

Recall

If X : B(n, p) then:
(a) E(X) = np
(b) V(X) = npq
 Question!

Q If mean & variance of Binomial variate X are 2 & 1

respectively then find probability that X takes value greater
than one, is equal to
IIT 1991
Solution : Let the number of trials be n and probability of success be p,
Then mean = np and variance = npq (where q = 1 – p)
Now, given that np = 2 and npq = 1

Also, n = 4
 Question!

Q If X: B(n, p) where p ∈ (0, 1) such that is

independent of n & r then find p.
Solution :

Which will be independent of r & n if p =

 Question!

Q Let a random variable X have a binomial distribution with

mean 8 and variance 4. If then k is equal to

A JEE Main 2019

121

B 1

C 17

D 137
 Question!

Q Let a random variable X have a binomial distribution with

mean 8 and variance 4. If then k is equal to

A JEE Main 2019

121

B 1

C 17

D 137
Solution :
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