1/15/24, 4:32 PM Where Wars Might Erupt in 2024

ROUNDUP

8 Simmering Threats You

Shouldn’t Ignore in 2024
These are the international disputes that are currently flying under
the radar but could emerge as major flash points in the coming
year.

JANUARY 2, 2024, 6:00 AM

By Catherine Osborn, Elisabeth Braw, Sushant Singh, Natia Seskuria, Lynne O’Donnell, Matthew Kroenig,
John R. Deni, and Folahanmi Aina

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/threats-wars-risk-2024-guyana-belarus-myanmar-abkhazia-ochamchire-cameroon-biya-arctic-nato-pakistan-ttp-i… 1/19
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Members of the Mandalay People's Defense Forces head to the frontline amid clashes with the
Myanmar military in northern Shan State on Dec. 10, 2023. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

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Earlier this week, Foreign Policy featured 10 conflicts to

watch in 2024. Here, we are focusing on those international disputes that
have been flying under the radar but could emerge as full-blown conflicts
in the next year.

This list is not intended to be predictive; rather, it is a warning from FP’s

columnists and contributors that there are a number of flash points—from
Abkhazia to Essequibo—that deserve more attention than they have
received from observers of international conflict and geopolitical risk.—
Sasha Polakow-Suransky, deputy editor

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/threats-wars-risk-2024-guyana-belarus-myanmar-abkhazia-ochamchire-cameroon-biya-arctic-nato-pakistan-ttp-i… 2/19
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Venezuela’s Threat to Guyana

By Catherine Osborn, writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly Latin America Brief

A militia member stands guard at a polling station during a consultative referendum on Venezuelan
sovereignty over the Essequibo region controlled by neighboring Guyana, in Caracas, on Dec. 3, 2023.
PEDRO RANCES MATTEY/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

It is unusual for U.S. Southern Command to

2024
announce air drills over Guyana, but
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s
saber-rattling over a long-dormant territorial
FP's look ahead
dispute with its neighbor provoked just such
a move in early December.

Many Venezuelans believe that a large chunk of Guyana known as

Essequibo is rightfully theirs, rejecting an 1899 ruling that laid the ground
for other agreements zoning it as part of Guyana. But they had no reason

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to reactivate the dispute until deposits that quickly became an oil bonanza
were discovered off of Guyana’s coast in 2015.

The highly unpopular Maduro faces an election next year. He aimed to

boost his own support when he organized a Dec. 3 referendum on whether
to annex Essequibo, in defiance of an International Court of Justice order
to halt the vote.

Official results said voters approved the prospect of annexation by more

than 95 percent, and Maduro quickly ordered Venezuela’s state oil firm to
drill in Essequibo. Regional powers are not taking Maduro’s actions
lightly. Brazil sent troops to its border with Venezuela, and Guyana and
the United States announced joint air drills for Dec. 7. (U.S. oil company
Exxon has major offshore operations in the disputed region.)

The rift pits Venezuela against the United States at a time when the
Caracas-Washington relationship was beginning to thaw; it also puts
Venezuela at odds with Brazil and Cuba, who are sensitive to Guyana’s
position. Militarily, Caracas is ill-prepared to compete in any hypothetical
land battle if Brasília or Washington gets involved. But it can make
provocative moves in a play toward Maduro’s domestic audience.

Maduro may also be trying to drive a rift between Latin American

countries and Washington by escalating and then claiming U.S. overreach
in the neighborhood. On Dec. 14, talks mediated by Brazil, the Community
of Latin American and Caribbean States, and the Caribbean Community
cooled tensions, with the Venezuelan and Guyanese presidents jointly
pledging to avoid force. The dispute is already testing Latin America’s
rarely-activated mechanisms to head off interstate conflict.

Subsea Sabotage Off Ireland’s Coast

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By Elisabeth Braw, columnist at Foreign Policy and senior associate fellow

at the European Leadership Network

Storm clouds gather over the Irish Sea as a crew member stands on the bridge of the ferry on Dec. 29,
2020. PHIL NOBLE/REUTERS

Few parts of the world host as many undersea cables as the waters off the
southern coast of Ireland. Should a hostile state want to wreak havoc on
countries connected to the globalized economy via these networks, it
could send a few vessels into Irish waters to sabotage the cables. Because
Ireland only has a minuscule navy, doing so would be an easy task.

The vast majority of the undersea cables connecting Europe with the
United States’ east coast travel via the Celtic Sea, the part of the Atlantic
Ocean located south of Ireland. That’s a logical arrangement since the
Celtic Sea provides the most efficient route to the rest of the Atlantic.

But in May this year, a group of Russian navy vessels, including the
Admiral Grigorovich, which has participated in the war against Ukraine,

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appeared in Ireland’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and remained there.

And in January 2022, Russia declared it was going to hold a naval exercise
in Ireland’s EEZ. The Irish government tried to prevent the exercise from
taking place, without success—but Irish fishermen managed to thwart the
Russians by refusing to leave the waters.

Pay attention to any new Russian vessels in Irish waters. Though

governments have the right to intervene against foreign vessels in their
EEZ—and especially in their territorial waters, to protect sensitive
installations—Ireland is hardly in a position to do so: The Irish Naval
Service’s fleet encompasses a total of six vessels, all of them patrol ships
and thus not equipped to scare away the Admiral Grigorovich or other
unwanted Russian visitors.

That raises the question: If Russia decided to sabotage the world’s

communications infrastructure in the Celtic Sea, would NATO intervene
on behalf of Ireland, which is not a member of the organization?

A Spillover of Myanmar’s Conflict Into China and India

By Sushant Singh, lecturer at Yale University and senior fellow at the Centre
for Policy Research

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/threats-wars-risk-2024-guyana-belarus-myanmar-abkhazia-ochamchire-cameroon-biya-arctic-nato-pakistan-ttp-i… 6/19
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Members of ethnic rebel group Ta’ang National Liberation Army take part in a training exercise at their
base camp in the forest in Myanmar’s northern Shan State on March 8, 2023. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

For most observers, the conflict in Myanmar is about democracy. But the
challenge has gone way beyond that, with the instability in the
strategically located Southeast Asian country threatening to spill over
onto the territory of its neighbors—including the two Asian giants, China
and India.

The Burmese military junta seized power in a coup d’état in 2021 but has
lost control of several towns and security outposts in the country’s border
areas in the last few months after the largest-as-of-yet coordinated
offensive from the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of rebel groups.
The offensive has energized the nationwide armed struggle to overthrow
the military regime and fighting has spread to many parts of the country.
According to the United Nations, more than half a million people have
been displaced in different parts of Myanmar due to this surge of fighting,
with a total of 2 million displaced since the coup.

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Many of these people are seeking refuge in bordering areas of India and
China. India has been reluctant to accept the refugees because doing so
adds to the already tenuous situation in Indian states such as Manipur,
which has been engulfed by ethnic violence over allegations of illegal
immigration from Myanmar. China is also worried about the insecurity
fueled along its borders due to the rebel offensive, but its concern is also
motivated by the joint Myanmar junta-Chinese offensive launched
recently in the region against gangs operating internet fraud centers that
China blames for cheating many of its people.

To further complicate matters, Beijing has strong ties with the coalition of
Myanmar rebel groups, which led to the rare sight of dozens of nationalist
pro-junta Burmese protesters gathered outside the Chinese Embassy in
Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city, with posters critical of Beijing. “We
request China government don’t support northern terrorist groups,” one
of the posters stated in English. A junta spokesperson refused to criticize
China, and soon after the two countries conducted naval drills together.
Beijing has called for a cease-fire and has said the warring parties should
try to resolve their differences through dialogue.

Despite Western pressure, India has been providing developmental and

security aid to the Burmese junta while keeping its lines of
communication with the rebels open. Like China, India’s anxieties about
Myanmar are likely to grow in the short term and both the Asian powers
will seek to safeguard their strategic and commercial interests. Stringent
Western sanctions against the junta while Russia provides military
supplies leave the region in a precarious balance. It is a flash point that
could end up as a humanitarian and security catastrophe.

The Russian Navy in Abkhazia

By Natia Seskuria, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/threats-wars-risk-2024-guyana-belarus-myanmar-abkhazia-ochamchire-cameroon-biya-arctic-nato-pakistan-ttp-i… 8/19
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Marines show off their skills during Russian Navy Day celebrations in the port city of Novorossiysk on
July 30, 2023. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Maintaining dominance in the Black Sea has been one of Russian

President Vladimir Putin’s key foreign-policy goals. However, lately,
Ukraine has been testing Russian aspirations in the Black Sea. Multiple
successful Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet have exposed new
vulnerabilities for the Russian fleet stationed in the port of Sevastopol,
and other ports in Russian-occupied Crimea. Recent satellite
data indicates that Russia has already started moving its ships from
Sevastapol to the Novorossiysk port.

However, Putin may be preparing a longer-term plan by using another

strategic asset in the Russian-occupied region of Abkhazia, which is
internationally recognized as Georgian territory.

Russian influence operations as well as consistent efforts to destabilize

Georgia have largely remained under the radar. But Moscow’s recent

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decision to expand its naval base in Abkhazia’s Ochamchire district poses

a threat of serious escalation. Ochamchire’s port is located only one hour
from Georgian-controlled territory. Russia already maintains two fully
operational military bases in the occupied Georgian regions of Tskhinvali
(known in Russia as South Ossetia) and Abkhazia.

If the Kremlin succeeds in expanding and then using the Ochamchire port
as a refuge for the Black Sea Fleet, it will expose Georgia to new security
threats and the risk of being dragged into the Russia-Ukraine war. An
Ochamchire port full of Russian warships would become a legitimate
target for the Ukrainian military, hence creating an unprecedented
vulnerability for the Georgian government in Tbilisi.

By pursuing expansion of Ochamchire, the Kremlin could acquire double

profits. First, it would temporarily move its ships away from Crimea,
where it has already been overwhelmed by Ukrainian drone and missile
attacks; second, it would place additional pressure on Georgia, which
recently received EU candidate status.

Should the Kremlin decide to proceed with its plans in Abkhazia, there is
not much Georgia will be able to do to prevent it, since Moscow exercises
effective control over its occupied territories. Georgia’s only leverage
would be to request that Western allies impose further sanctions on
Moscow due to its continuous efforts to expand the front lines of the
Russia-Ukraine war.

When it comes to the war, the Kremlin’s actions outside of Ukraine are
worth paying attention to. Russia has a full operational advantage in its
occupied Georgian territories, where it does not allow any international
observation missions to operate. An escalation in Abkhazia would impact
not only Georgia and Ukraine but also the entire Black Sea region, which
is used as a key trade and connectivity route between Asia and Europe.

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The Taliban Threat to Pakistan

By Lynne O’Donnell, columnist at Foreign Policy

A police officer stands next to a bullet-riddled wall as he inspects a compound after taking control of
the building, following an attack by Pakistani Taliban in Karachi on Feb. 17, 2023. ASIF HASSAN/AFP VIA
GETTY IMAGES

Pakistan is fighting for its life. Politically unstable, economically spent,

militarily stretched, morally bankrupt, the Pakistani state is now at war
with the terror group it once sought to control for its own nefarious
ambitions. After supporting the Taliban for 20 years against the U.S.-
backed government of Afghanistan, seeing the group as a tool of its
“strategic depth” policy of containing India, Pakistan’s establishment has
realized, too late, that it has been had. The Taliban’s Pakistani franchise,
the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is now engaged in an escalating war
against the Pakistani state.

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Since the Taliban could beat the mighty United States, the TTP, like
extremist groups worldwide, is calculating the odds are in its favor.
Protestations from the Taliban that they are neither harboring nor helping
the TTP are not borne out by the evidence. Pakistan has already bombed
TTP positions inside Afghanistan, and U.S.-made military equipment
delivered to Afghan defense forces during the republic’s war with the
insurgency has been found in Pakistan.

Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister ahead of

elections scheduled for February, has ruled out talks with the TTP,
spurning offers to intercede from the Taliban’s de facto Interior Minister
Sirajuddin Haqqani (who leads the Haqqani network, a blacklisted terror
group that, like the TTP, is affiliated with al Qaeda).

Many thousands of people in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa province have marched against the resurgence of Islamist
extremism and called on the government to see off the TTP. They know
what they’re in for if the TTP prevails, having lived under the group’s veil
of terror for a decade before the state finally took action in 2014 and
pushed the TTP over the border into Afghanistan.

The weakness of the Pakistani state, however, does not inspire much hope
that the same will happen again before the TTP becomes re-entrenched.
As Pakistan’s politicians and military officers squabble and plot for power
and wealth, the TTP is preparing to march in 2024.

An Arctic NATO-Russia Showdown

By Matthew Kroenig, columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and

senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and
Security

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/threats-wars-risk-2024-guyana-belarus-myanmar-abkhazia-ochamchire-cameroon-biya-arctic-nato-pakistan-ttp… 12/19
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A photo distributed by Russian state agency Sputnik shows a nuclear submarine during a flag-raising
ceremony led by Russia’s president at the Arctic port of Severodvinsk on Dec. 11, 2023. KIRILL
IODAS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Geopolitical analysts have long talked about “frozen conflicts” in

Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, and elsewhere, but they should pay
more attention to a conflict that is about to become unfrozen.

With the melting of Arctic ice caps, geopolitical competition is heating up

in the High North. Arctic countries are eager to benefit from unlocked
natural resources and new trade routes; Russia is ramping up its military
presence in the region; and even China is looking to get in on the action,
ludicrously declaring itself a “near-Arctic state.”

A major NATO-Russia conflict, starting in Ukraine or the Baltic States,

could easily escalate to engulf the High North. While Russia’s army has
been chewed up in Ukraine, its navy, air force, and nuclear forces remain

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largely untouched. Russia’s Northern Fleet is based near Murmansk,

Russia, a city just 120 miles from Kirkenes, Norway (where NATO begins).

Due to melting ice, Russian warships now have greater freedom of

maneuver (including north of the Norwegian island of Svalbard) to evade
NATO detection. Russia’s Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) bubble might
seek to close the Baltic Sea in a war, making Norway’s long, protected
western coast an alternate disembarkation point for U.S. and NATO
deployments and resupply convoys—and also an attractive target for the
Russian navy, setting the stage for a new battle of the Atlantic.

The new geography of NATO enlargement, however, also creates

vulnerabilities for Russia. With Finland and (likely in the near future)
Sweden in NATO, the alliance suddenly has strategic depth near the
important Kola Peninsula. In the event of conflict, NATO could attack
Russian supply lines and cut off and isolate Russia’s Northern Fleet. This
vulnerability could also become important pressure point against Russia
in peacetime—but only at the risk of creating another possible flash point
for nuclear escalation.

The Collapse of Belarus

By John R. Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic
Studies Institute

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/threats-wars-risk-2024-guyana-belarus-myanmar-abkhazia-ochamchire-cameroon-biya-arctic-nato-pakistan-ttp… 14/19
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Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko meets with foreign media at the Independence Palace in the
capital Minsk on July 6, 2023. ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

The last couple of years has seen an emerging consensus among many
Belarus-watchers that Russia has successfully implemented a “soft
annexation” of its smaller neighbor. Russian influence and outright
control now extends throughout the Belarusian economy, government,
and military.

However, this has not turned Belarus into a complete marionette just yet
—for example, despite ongoing concerns about opening a new front in
Russia’s war on Ukraine, Belarusian troops have yet to enter the fray. It’s
conceivable, though, that the Kremlin, facing manpower challenges,
might demand more of the Belarusian government in Minsk. If that
happens, and Belarus’s dictatorial president, Aleksandr Lukashenko,
resists once more, Moscow may finally tire of him, pushing him out and
installing an even more malleable leader.

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Given evidence of deep divisions within the Belarusian elite,

among average citizens, and within the military, there’s no guarantee that
all elements of society would simply roll over. Instead, it’s possible civil
strife would unfold, with different factions taking up arms either to make
way for the Kremlin’s anointed leader or to maintain Lukashenko’s
network and patronage system.

Of course, a third alternative is that Belarusian opposition leader

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, exiled in neighboring Lithuania, might seek to
return and rally anti-Russian, anti-Lukashenko forces. Regardless,
Russia’s military and security services would likely become involved.

For his part, Lukashenko could conceivably flee westward, under the
belief that Putin intends to treat him as well as the late Wagner Group
leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and that governments in Poland or the Baltic
states would be eager to debrief him. He likely wouldn’t be alone in such a
move—a massive Belarusian refugee flow into Poland, Lithuania, and
Latvia would probably follow.

If Ukraine is any indicator—around 14 percent of the population has fled

the country—the West could expect somewhere around 1.3 million
Belarusian refugees. Also, as in Ukraine, the United States and its allies
would be confronted with how to respond—openly arm and support
Tikhanovskaya’s followers or some other faction? Conduct covert
operations designed to keep the strife on simmer and Putin off balance?
Stay out completely, given the presence of Russian military forces? The
collapse of Belarus would present yet another potential mess along the
East-West fault line.

A Coup in Cameroon

By Folahanmi Aina, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/threats-wars-risk-2024-guyana-belarus-myanmar-abkhazia-ochamchire-cameroon-biya-arctic-nato-pakistan-ttp… 16/19
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Internally displaced people gather water as they shelter with local residents of Kerawa village, in which
clashes with militants have taken many people’s lives, in Cameroon, Aug. 7, 2023. SAABI
JEAKESPIER/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES

Armed conflict in Cameroon stemming from the Anglophone Crisis that

began in 2017 is now in its sixth year. The crisis has resulted in the internal
displacement of approximately 1 million people. The situation on the
ground is further worsened by a looming humanitarian crisis, with at
least 2 million people currently in need of humanitarian aid in both the
Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon. At least 6,000 civilians
have been killed in both regions since 2016, by government forces and the
armed separatists.

While the crisis has not received the international coverage it deserves, it
is nonetheless expected to escalate and become even more complex in
2024, owing to the continued threat posed by the Islamic State’s West
Africa Province (ISWAP), a breakaway faction of the militant Boko Haram

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group, which has killed more than 3,000 Cameroonians in the Far North
region and resulted in worsening insecurity.

The situation on the ground is further complicated by the resurgence of

coups nearby, including in the Republic of Niger. Niger’s post-coup
decision to limit its participation in the Multinational Joint Task Force
(MNJTF), a regional security alliance by the Lake Chad Basin countries, of
which Cameroon is a member, exposes Cameroon’s northern flank to the
likelihood of more terrorist attacks.

As Cameroonians become increasingly distrustful of their government

(led by President Paul Biya, who is 90 years old and spends much of the
year abroad in Switzerland) heightened insecurity in 2024 would likely
trigger an exacerbation of the Anglophone crisis, potentially paving the
way for a military takeover of power.

Biya’s inevitable exit from the political scene would no doubt accelerate
tensions within the ruling party as well as aggravate conflict within
Cameroon’s deeply divided security establishment. This has been the case
in Sudan, which is currently embroiled in a civil war that has sparked
wider regional threats.
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click here.

Catherine Osborn is the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly Latin America Brief. She is a print and
radio journalist based in Rio de Janeiro. Twitter: @cculbertosborn
Elisabeth Braw is a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior associate fellow at the European
Leadership Network. Twitter: @elisabethbraw
Sushant Singh is a lecturer at Yale University and a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy
Research in India. He was the deputy editor of the Indian Express, reporting on strategic affairs,
national security, and international affairs, and previously served in the Indian army for two
decades. Twitter: @SushantSin
Natia Seskuria is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Twitter: @nseskuria
Lynne O’Donnell is a columnist at Foreign Policy and an Australian journalist and author. She
was the Afghanistan bureau chief for Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press between
2009 and 2017.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/threats-wars-risk-2024-guyana-belarus-myanmar-abkhazia-ochamchire-cameroon-biya-arctic-nato-pakistan-ttp… 18/19
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Matthew Kroenig is a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the
Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department
of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
His latest book is The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy Versus Autocracy From the
Ancient World to the U.S. and China. Twitter: @matthewkroenig
John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, a
nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and an associate fellow at the NATO Defense
College. He’s the author of NATO and Article 5. The views expressed are his own
Twitter: @JohnRDeni
Folahanmi Aina is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. His research
interests include terrorism, extremism, and insurgency in Nigeria, the Lake Chad Basin, and
the Sahel region. Twitter: @folanski

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