Basic Concepts of Probability

Chapter Outline
• Basic Probability Concepts:
Experiment. Outcome. Sample Space. Simple & Compound
Event. Equally Likely Events. Mutually Exclusive Events or
Disjoint Events. Independent & Dependent Events. Conditional
Probability.
• Definitions of Probability:
Properties of Probability.
• Addition & Multiplication Laws, Bayes’ Rule

1
Experiment. Basic Definitions.
An experiment is a process which generates observations. e.g., tossing a fair coin.
Trial.
A single performance of an experiment is called a trial.
Outcome.
The result obtained from a trial is called an outcome.
Event.
An event is the collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment.
Sample Space.
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called sample space and it is generally
denoted by ‘S’. Each element of a sample space is called a sample point.
Simple (Elementary) Event.
An event that contains only one sample point of the sample space is called a simple or elementary
event.
Compound Event.
An event that contains two or more sample points of the sample space is called compound event.
Impossible Event.
Impossible event is an event that contains no sample points of the sample space. It can never occur. It
is denoted by .
Sure Event or Certain Event.
Certain/Sure event is an event that contains all the sample points of the sample space. It certainly
occurs.
Equally Likely Events.
Events are called equally likely if they have equal chance of occurrence.
Venn Diagram.
A simple way of representing the relationship between sets by means of diagrams is called Venn
diagram. In other words, sets can be represented in the form of a diagram. A rectangle is used to
denote the master set or universal set which is denoted by ‘S’, squares or circles are used to represent 2
the subset of the master set.
Mutually Exclusive Events or Disjoint Events.
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur together or the
intersection of two events is a null set i.e., A ∩ B = .
Non-Exclusive Events or Joint Events.
Two events A and B are said to be non-exclusive, or joint, if they can occur together.
Independent Events.
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event has no effect on the probability of
the other event. e.g. P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B)
Dependent Events.
Two events are dependent if the occurrence of one event has effect on the probability of the
other event. e.g. P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B/A)
Conditional Probability.
If A and B are two events in a sample space S, and if P(B) is not equal to zero, then the conditional
probability of the event A given that event B has occurred, written as P(A/B), is defined as
P(A ∩ B)
P(A/B) =
P(B)

Basic Definitions of Probability.

1. Classical or a Priori Definition.

If there are ‘n’ mutually exclusive, and equally likely outcomes of a random experiment and ‘m’
out of these outcomes are favorable to the occurrence of an event ‘A’ , then the probability of
event A is defined by the ratio . In symbols it can be expressed as P(A) = (m/n)
2. Relative Frequency or Empirical or Statistical or a Posteriori Definition.
If a random experiment is repeated a large number of times say ‘n’, under identical conditions
and if the event A occurs ‘m’ times, then the probability of event A is defined as the limit of the
relative frequency as n tends to infinity. In symbols it can be expressed as

P(A) =
m
Lim
n → n

3
3. Subjective or Personalistic Definition.
When a priori or empirical value cannot be determined, probabilities are sometimes assigned on the
basis of someone's personal judgment. Probability in this sense in purely subjective and based on
whatever evidence is available to the individual.
For example, a plant manager may believe that there is a 0.6 probability that the union will go out on
strike next week. This probability is the manager’s subjective estimate of the likelihood of a strike
and is not on a priori or empirical value.
Permutations.
An arrangement of ‘r’ objects taken from ‘n’ distinct objects in particular order is called permutation
and denoted by n
Pr
Combinations.
An arrangement of ‘r’ objects taken from ‘n’ distinct object without regarding any order is called
combination and denoted by n n
Cr or 
r

 

Notations.
1. A = An event A does not occur.
2. AUB = Either event A or event B occur, or at least one of them occur.
3. A B = Neither event A nor event B occurs.
4. A∩B = Event A and B occur simultaneously or A and B both occur.
5. P (A/B) = Conditional probability of event A, given that event B has occurred.

Properties of Probability.
1. The probability of the impossible event is zero i.e., P () =0.
2. The probability of an event ranges from zero to one. i.e., if A is an event, then 0  P(A)  1.
3. The probability of the entire sample space is one i.e., P (S) = 1.
4. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then the probability of occurrence of either A or B is given as
P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
5. If A is the complement of an event A then P( A ) = 1 – P(A)
4
Addition Law for Mutually Exclusive Events.
If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then the probability that the event A or B occur is
equal to the probability that A occur plus the probability that B occur. i.e.

1. P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B)

Addition Law for not Mutually Exclusive Events. (General Law of Addition for Probability).
If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then the probability that at least one of them occurs, is
given by the sum of the separate probabilities of events A and B minus the probability of the joint
event A ∩ B. i.e.
2. P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

If A, B and C are any three not mutually events in a sample space S, then the probability of at least one of
them occurring is given by
3. P (A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A ∩ B) – P(B ∩ C) – P(A ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B ∩ C)
In case of four not mutually exclusive events A, B, C and D:
4. P (A U B U C U D) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) +P(D) – P(A ∩ B) – P(A ∩ C) – P(A ∩ D) – P(B ∩ C)
– P(B ∩ D) – P(C ∩ D) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ D) + P(A ∩ C ∩ D) + P(B ∩ C ∩ D) – P(A ∩ B ∩ C ∩ D).
Multiplication Law for Independent Events.
If A and B are two independent events, then the probability that both occur is equal to the product of their
respective probabilities. i.e.
5. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)
6. In case of three events A, B and C P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C)
Multiplication Law for Dependent Events. (General Law of Multiplication for Probability.
The probability that two events A and B that the other event will occur given that the first
event has occurred. will both occur is equal to the probability that one of the events
will occur multiplied by the conditional probability
7. 𝐵
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃
𝐴
𝐵 𝐶 5
8. In case of three events A, B and C 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃 ×𝑃
𝐴 𝐴∩𝐵
Example # 1: Find the sample space for the number of tails when
TWO coins are tossed.
Solution

Let ‘X’ = no of tails

S = 22 = 4 { HH, TH, HT, TT }

Values (X) Outcomes

0 HH
1 TH, HT
2 TT

6
Example # 2
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.
Solution

Since each die can land is six different ways and two
dice are rolled, the sample space can be presented
by a rectangular array, as shown in the table given
below. The sample space is the list of pairs of
numbers in the chart.

Die 2
Die 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
7
Example # 3
Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of
cards.
Solution

Since there are four suits (hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades) and 13
cards of each suit (ace through king), there are 52 outcomes in the
sample space given below:
Face cards = 12

Clubs

Spades

Hearts

Diamonds

8
Question # 1
If there are 50 tickets sold for a raffle and one
person buys 7 tickets, what is the probability
of that person winning the prize? Ans: 7 / 50

Question # 2
A couple has three children find each
probability.
(i) Of all boys (ii) Of all boys or all girls
(iii) Of at least one child of each gender
(iv) Of exactly two boys or two girls.
Ans: (i) 1 / 8 (ii) 1/4 (iii) 3/4 (iv) 3/4

Question # 3
A roulette wheel has 38 spaces numbered 1
through 36, 0, and 00. Find the probability of
getting these results. (i) An odd number
(ii) A number greater than 25 (iii) A number
less than 15 not counting 0 and 00.
Ans: (i) 18 / 38 (ii) 11 / 38 (iii) 14 / 38

9
Question # 4
The wheel spinner shown on the right side is
spun twice. Find the sample space, and then
1
determine the probability of the following events.
0 2
(i) A sum that is odd. (ii) Even numbers on both
spins. (iii) A sum greater than 4. (iv) The
same number on both spins. (v) An odd 4 3
number on the first spin and an even number on
the second spin. (Note: 0 is considered even.)
Ans: (i) 12 / 25 (ii) 9 / 25 (iii) 10 / 25 (iv) 5 / 25 (v) 6 / 25
Question # 5
In a large departmental store, There are two
managers, four department heads, 16 clerks,
and four stock persons. If a person is selected
at random, find the probability that the person
is either a clerk or a manager. Ans: 18 / 26

Question # 6
An automobile dealer has 10 Fords, 7 Civics
and 5 Corollas on her used-car lot. If person
purchases a used car, find the probability that 10
it is a Ford or Civic. Ans: 17 / 22
Question # 7
Two dice are rolled. Find the probability of getting
the following. (i) Doubles or a sum of 4 or 6.
(ii) A sum of 6 or 7 or 8 (iii) A sum greater than 9
or less than 4 or a 7.
Ans: (i) 12 / 36 (ii) 16 / 36 (iii) 15 / 36
Question # 8
A coin is tossed three times find the following
probabilities.
(i) All heads (ii) All heads or all tails
(iii) At least one head (iv) Exactly one tail.
Ans: (i) 1 / 8 (ii) 1/4 (iii) 7/8 (iv) 3/8

Question # 9
A class contains 10 men and 20 women, of which
half the men and half the women have brown eyes.
Find the probability that a person chosen at random
is a man or has brown eyes. Ans: 2 / 3 or 0.67

Question # 10
In a group of 20 adults, 4 out of 7 women and 2 out
of 13 men wear glasses. What is the probability
that a person chosen at random from the group is a
woman or someone who wears glasses?Ans: 9 / 20 or 0.45
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Example # 4
If S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}, A = {1, 2, 3, 4}, B = {2, 4, 6}, C = {3, 4, 5, 6}
Find (i) A (ii) B (iii) A  B (iv) C  A (v) A  B
(vi) (A  B) (vii) A  C (viii) (A  C) (ix) (B − C)
(x) (A) (xi) A  B  C (xii) (A  C)  B
(i) A = S − A = {5, 6, 7, 8}
(ii) B = S − B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 8}
(iii) A  B = {2, 4}
(iv) C  A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
(v) A  B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6}
(vi) (A  B) = S − (A  B) = {5, 7, 8}
(vii) A  C = {3, 4}
(viii) (A  C) = S − (A  C) = {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8}
(ix) B − C = {2}, and thus
(B − C) = S − (B − C) = {1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
(x) A = {5, 6, 7, 8}, thus
(A) = S − (A) = A = {1, 2, 3, 4}
(xi) A  B = {2, 4}, and
C = S − C = {1, 2, 7, 8}, thus
A  B  C = {2}
(xii) (A  C) = {1, 2}, thus
(A  C)  B = {1, 2, 4, 6} 12
Example # 5
A card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find
the probability that it is (i) an ace (ii) a jack of hearts (iii) a three of
clubs or a six of diamonds (iv) a heart (v) any suit except hearts
(vi) a ten or a spade (vii) neither a four nor a club.

4
𝑖 𝑃 an ace = = 0.077
52
1
𝑖𝑖 𝑃 a jack of hearts = = 0.019
52
1 1 2
𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑃 a three of clubs or a six of diamonds = + = = 0.038
52 52 52
13
𝑖𝑣 𝑃 a heart = = 0.25
52
13
𝑣 Let H denotes any suit except hearts = 𝑃 H = 1 − 𝑃 H = 1 − = 0.75
52
4 13 1
𝑣𝑖 𝑃 a ten or a spade = P 10 + P S − P 10  S = + −
52 52 52
16
= = 0.308
52
𝑣𝑖𝑖 𝑃 neither a four nor a club = 𝑃 4  C = P 4  C  = 1 − P 4  C
4 13 1 16
= 1 − [P 4 + P C − P 4  𝐶 ] = 1 − 52 + 52 − 52 = 1 − 52 = 0.692

13
Example # 6
If P(A) = 1/2, P(A  B) = 3/4 and P(𝐵)
ሜ = 5/8, Find P(A  B).

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A  B)

1 3 3 1
P(A  B) = 2 + 8 − 4 = 8

Example # 7
Find the probability of getting 4 aces when 5 cards are drawn
from an ordinary deck of cards.

52
There are S = = 2598960
5
4 48
𝑛(𝐴) = = 48
4 1
Hence,
48 1
Re𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 Pr𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = = 0.0000184
2598960 54145

14
Question # 11
A can solve 75% of the problems of a book and B can
solve 70%. What is the probability that either A or B
can solve a problem chosen at random? Ans: 0.925
Question # 12
An integer is chosen at random from the first 100
positive integers. Find the probability that the chosen
digit is divisible by 8 or by 12. Ans: 16 / 100 or 0.16

Question # 13
Find the probability that on a single draw from a
pack of playing cards, we draw a diamond card or
picture card or both. Ans: 22 / 52 or 0.423

Question # 14
A drum contains 50 bolts and 150 nuts. Half of
the bolts and half of the nuts are rusted:
(i) If one item is chosen at random, what is
the probability that it is rusted or is a bolt?
(ii) If two items are chosen at random, what is
the probability that both are rusted or both
are nuts? Ans: (i) 5 / 8 or 0.625 (ii) 13350 / 19900 or 0.67
15
Question # 15
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized
country of the world is 1/5, find the probability that a
person does not live in an industrialized country
P(not living in an industrialized country) = 1 – P(living in an industrialized country) = 1 – 1/5 = 4/5

Question # 16
A shopping mall has set up a promotion as follows.
With any mall purchase of $50 or more, the customer
gets to spin the wheel shown here. If a number 1
comes up, the customer wins $10. If the number 2
comes up, the customer wins $5; and if the number 3
or 4 comes up, the customer wins a discount coupon.
Find the following probabilities.
(i) The customer wins $10.
(ii) The customer wins money.
(iii) The customer wins a coupon. Ans: (i) 2/20 = 0.1, (ii) 4/20 = 0.2, (iii) 16/20 = 0.8

Question # 17
On New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while
intoxicated is 0.32, the probability of a person having a driving
accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person having a driving
accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of a
person driving while intoxicated or having a driving accident?
Ans: P(intoxicated or accident) = 0.32 + 0.09 – 0.06 = 0.35 16
Question # 18
A farmer has a box containing 25 eggs, 5 of which
have blood spots. He checks three eggs by taking
them at random one after another from the box.
What is the probability that the first two eggs will be
clear and third is blood spotted. Ans: 0.1377

Question # 19
Three cards are drawn from a deck without
replacement. Find these probabilities.
(i) All are jacks. (ii) All are clubs
(iii) All are red cards. Ans: (i) 1 / 5525 (ii) 11 / 850 (iii) 2 / 17

Question # 20
Two cards are dealt from a pack of ordinary
playing cards. Find the probability that the
second card dealt is a heart.
Ans: Let H1 and H2 represent the first and second heart cards.
Question # 21
Three dice are rolled. Find the probability of getting
the following:
(i) Triples (ii) A sum of 5 Ans: (i) 6 / 216 (ii) 6 / 216

Question # 22
A card is drawn from a deck and replaced;
then a second card is drawn. Find the
probability of getting a queen and then an
ace. Ans: 1 / 169

Question # 23
A coin is tossed five times. Find the
probability of getting at least one tail. Ans: 31 / 32

Question # 24
If a family has 5 children, find the probability
that at least one child is a boy.
Ans: 31 / 32

18
Example # 8
A bottle containing Six fish oil and three narcotic tablets,
which are identical in appearance. One tablet is taken at
random and given to Person A. A tablet is then selected
and given to Person B. What is the probability that:
(a) Person A was given a fish oil tablet?
(b) Person B was given a narcotic tablet given that Person
A was given a fish oil tablet?
(c) Neither was given fish oil tablets?
(d) Both were given fish oil tablets?
(e) Exactly one person was given a fish oil tablet?
(f) Person A was given a narcotic tablet and Person B
was given a fish oil tablet?
(g) Person A was given a fish oil tablet and Person B
was given a narcotic tablet?

19
Question # 25
In a sample of 1000 people (500 men and 500
women), 113 are left-handed (63 men and 50
women). The results of the sample are given in the
table. If two people are selected one by one at
random from the sample, find the probability
of the following.
Men Women
Dominant Left 63 50
Hand Right 437 450

(i) Both people are left-handed men. (ii) Both

people are left-handed women. (iii) At least one
of the two people is left-handed. (iv) The first
person is a left-handed man, and second person is
a left-handed women. (v) One of the two people is
a left-handed man, and the other is a left-handed
women.
Ans: (i) 3906 / 999000 or 0.0039 (ii) 2450 / 999000 or 0.0025 (iii) 213118 / 999000 or 0.213 (iv) 3150 / 999000 or 0.0032
(v) 6300 / 999000 or 0.0063

20
Question # 26
In a pizza restaurant, 95% of the customers order
pizza. If 65% of the customers order pizza and
salad, find the probability that a customer who
orders pizza will also order a salad. Ans: 0.684

Question # 27
A study of graduate’s average grades and
degrees showed the following results.
Grade
Degree C B A
MS 5 8 15
BBA 7 12 8
If a graduate is selected at random, find these
probabilities. (i) The graduate has MS
degree, given that he or she has an A
average. (ii) Given that the graduate has a
BBA degree, the graduate has a C average.
Ans: (i) 15 / 23 or 0.65 (ii) 7 / 27 or 0.26 21
Question # 28
A coin is tossed, and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head and then rolling a
2. Ans: 1/12 = 0.083

Question # 29
The following table shows the estimated number (in thousands) of earned
degrees conferred in the year 2006 by level and gender.
Gender
Male Female
Associate 209 323
Level of Bachelor 502 659
Degree
Master 187 227
Doctor 27 19
A person who earned a degree in the year 2006 is
randomly selected. Find the probability of
selecting someone who earned (i) a bachelor’s
degree. (ii) a bachelor’s degree given that the
person is a female. (iii) a bachelor’s degree given
that the person is not a female. (iv) an associate’s
degree or a bachelor’s degree. (v) a doctorate 22
given that the person is a male. Ans: (i) 0.539 (ii) 0.537 (iii) 0.543 (iv) 0.786 (v) 0.0292
Question # 30
A number of students were grouped according to their
reading ability and education. The table shows the
results.
Reading ability
Education Low Average High
Graduated high school 6 18 43
Did not graduate 27 16 7
If a student is selected at random, find these probabilities.
(i) The student has a low reading ability, given that the
student is a high school graduate. (ii) Given that the
student did not graduate, the student has a high reading
ability. (iii) The student has a low or average reading ability.
(iv) The student did not graduate or low reading ability.
Ans: (i) 6/67 (ii) 7/50 (iii) 67/117 (iv) 56/117
Question # 31
From a well shuffled pack of 52 cards, a card is
drawn at random. What is the probability that it
is (i) red card (ii) an ace (iii) a card of clubs (iv)
a jack of spades (v) a face card (vi) jack of
clubs or queen of diamonds 23
Ans: (i) 1 / 2 (ii) 1 / 13 (iii) 1 / 4 (iv) 1 / 52 (v) 3 / 13 (vi) 1 / 26
Question # 32
A hamburger chain found that 75% of all
customers use mustard, 80% use ketchup and
65% use both. What is the probability that a
customer will use at least one of these? Ans: 0.90
Question # 33
How many ways are there to choose a committee
of 4 persons from a group of 10 persons, if order is
not important? Ans: 210

Question # 34
If an experiment consists of throwing a die and
then drawing a letter at random from the English
alphabets, how many sample points in sample
space. Ans: 156

Question # 35
How many ways are there to select 3 candidates from
8 equally qualified recent graduates for opening in an
accounting firm. Ans: 56
24
Question # 36
Four items are taken at random from a box of 12 items
and inspected. The box is rejected if more than 1 item is
found to be faulty. If there are 3 faulty items in the box,
find the probability that the box is accepted.
12
𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛: 𝑆= = 495
4
3 9 3 9
𝑛(𝐴) = + = 378
0 4 1 3
378
Re𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 Pr𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = 0.76
495 Face cards = 12

Question # 37
A card is drawn at random from a deck
of ordinary playing cards. What is the
probability that it is a diamond, a
face card or a king.
Solution:
S = 52, Let A represent the event that card drawn is a diamond, B is a face card & C is a king. A ∩ B, the event that card drawn is both a
diamond and face card, and so on. Then we need P (A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A ∩ B) – P(B ∩ C) – P(A ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
Now P(A) 13/52, P(B) = 12/52, P(C) = 4/52, (A ∩ B) = 3/52, (B ∩ C) = 4/52, (A ∩ C) = 1/52, (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 1/52
Hence, we get
P (A  B  C) = 13/52 + 12/52 + 4/52 – 3/52 – 4/52 – 1/52 + 1/52 = 22/52 = 0.423

Question # 38
If one card is selected at random from a deck of 52 playing cards, 25
what is the probability that card is a club or a face card or both?
Ans: 22 / 52 or 0.423
Question # 39
Box A contains 5 green and 7 red balls. Box B contains
3 green, 3 red and 6 yellow balls. A box is selected at
random and a ball is drawn at random from it. What is
the probability that the ball drawn is green. 5 G = 5 /12
Solution:
S = 52, Let G denotes the event that green ball is drawn. Then G can occur either from box A
or from Box B in following two mutually exclusive ways:
(i) A ∩ G (ii) B∩G 7 R = 7 /12
1/2
Therefore P(G) = P(A ∩ G ) + P(B ∩ G ) Box A
P(G) = P(A ) P(G / A) + P(B ) P(G / B)
P(G) = 1 / 2 × 5 / 12 + 1 / 2 × 3 / 12 = 1/3 3 G = 3 /12
Question # 40 Box B
1/2
A bag contains 3 red and 5 black balls and another 4 3 R = 3 /12
red and 7 black balls. A ball is drawn is drawn from a
6 Y = 6 /12
bag selected at random. What is the probability that it is
red. Ans: 65 / 176 or 0.369

Question # 41
In a shipment of 25 microwave ovens, 2 are defective. If
two ovens are randomly selected and tested, find the
probability that both are defective if the first one is not
replaced after it has been tested. Ans: 1 / 300 or 0.0033
26
Question # 42
A box contains black chips and white chips. A person
selects two chips without replacement. If the probability
of selecting a black chip and a white chip is 15/56, and
the probability of selecting a black chip on the first draw
is 3/8, find the probability of selecting the white chip on
the second draw, given that the first chip selected was a
black chip. Ans: 5 / 7 or 0.7143

Question # 43
A box contains 24 transistors, four of which are defective.
If four are sold at random, find the following probabilities.
(i) Exactly two are defective.
(ii) All are defective.
(iii) None is defective.
(iv) At least one is defective.
Ans: (i) 190 / 1771 or 0.10728, (ii) 1 / 10626 or 0.09411, (iii) 1615 / 3542 or 0.45596, (iv) 1927 / 3542 or 0.54404.

Question # 44
Write a set ‘A’ containing all vowels in the world “PUBLICATION”,
and then find the probability of ‘A’. Using the P(A), find the
probability of consonants. Ans: P(A) = 5 / 11 P(B) = 6 / 11
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Example # 9
The probability is 2/3 that Mr. A will pass the examination and the
probability is 3/4 that Mr. B will pass the examination. Find the
following probabilities.
(i) Both will pass the examination.
(ii) Only one will pass the examination.
(iii) Somebody will pass the examination.
Solution
2 3
The probability is 3 that Mr. A will pass the examination and the probability is 4 that Mr.
B will pass the examination. Find the following probabilities.
2 3 1
(i) P(Both will pass the examination) = P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B) = 3 × 4 = 2
(ii) P(Only one will pass the examination) =
2 1 1 3 5
P( A  B ) + P( A  B) = P( A) P( B ) + P( A) P( B) =  +  =
3 4 3 4 12
(iii) P(Somebody will pass the examination)
= P( A  B ) + P( A  B) + P( A  B)
= P( A) P( B ) + P( A) P( B) + P( A) P( B)
2 1 1 3 2 3 11
=  +  +  =
3 4 3 4 3 4 12

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 Question # 45 D1 D2

A bag contains two defective D1, D2 and three good

G1, G2, G3 bulbs. Two bulbs are taken. Find the
following probabilities.
(i) First bulb is defective and second is good. G1 G2 G3
(ii) One is defective and one is good.
(iii) Both are good or both defective.
Ans: (i) P(D1 ∩ G2) = 2/5 × 3/4 = 3/10. (ii) P(One is defective and one is good) = P(D1 ∩ G2) + P(G1 ∩ D2) = P(D1) P(G2 / D1) + P(G1) P(D2 / G1) = 2/5 ×
3/4 + 3/5 × 2/4 = 6/10 (iii) P(Both good or both defective) = P(G1 ∩ G2) + P(D1 ∩ D2) = P(G1) P(G2 / G1) + P(D1) P(D2 / D1) = 3/5 × 2/4 + 2/5 × 1/4 = 2/5

Question # 46
Three missiles are fired at a target. If the probabilities of
hitting the target are 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 respectively, and if
the missiles are fired independently, what is the probability?
(i) That all the missiles hit the target?
(ii) That at least one of the three hits the target?
(iii) That exactly one hits the target?
(iv) That exactly two hit the target?
Ans: (i) P(all the missiles hit the target) = P(M1 ∩ M2 ∩ M3) = P(M1)P(M2)P(M3) = 0.4 × 0.5 × 0.6 = 0.12. (ii) P(at least one of the three hits the target) = 1 –
(no missiles hits the target) = 1 – P( 𝑀ഥ1 ∩ 𝑀 ഥ2 ∩ 𝑀
ഥ3) = [1 − 𝑃(𝑀ഥ1 )𝑃(𝑀
ഥ2 )𝑃(𝑀
ഥ3 )] = 1 − (0.6)(0.5)(0.4) = 0.88 (iii) P(exactly one hits the target) =0.08
+ 0.12 + 0.18 = 0.38. (iv) P(exactly two hit the target) =0.08 + 0.12 + 0.18 = 0.38.

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 Question # 47
If a letter is chosen at random from the English
alphabet, find the probability that the letter
(i) Is a vowel;
(ii) Is listed somewhere ahead of letter j;
(iii) Is listed somewhere after the letter g.
Ans: (i) P(vowel) = 5/26. (ii) P(letter before j) = 9/26. (iii) P(after letter g) = 19/26

Question # 48
In a university graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied
accounting, 69 studied economics, and 35 studied both
accounting and economics. If one of these students is
selected at random, find the probability that
(i) The student took accounting or economics;
(ii) The student did not take either of these subjects;
(iii) The student took economics but not accounting.
Ans: (i) P(A  E)) = P(A) + P(E) - P(A ∩ E) = 54/100 + 69/100 – 35/100 = 88/100 = 0.88.
(ii) P(Ā ∩ Ē) = P(A  E) = [1 – P(A  E))] = 1 – 0.88 = 0.12 or 3/25 (iii) P(E ∩ Ā) = P(E) – P(E ∩ A) = 69/100 – 35/100 = 34/100 = 0.34

30
Question # 49
Three cards are drawn in succession, without
replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing cards.
Find the probability that the event A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3
occurs, where A1 is the event that the first card is a
red ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10
or a jack, and A3 is the event that the third card is
greater than 3 but less than 7.
Ans: P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3) = P(A1)P(A2/ A1)P(A3/ (A1 ∩ A2)) = 2/52 × 8/51 × 12/50 = 8/5525

Question # 50
A random sample of 200 adults are classified below by
gender and their level of education attained.
Education Male Female
Elementary 38 45
Secondary 28 50
College 22 17
If a person is picked at random from this group, find the
probability that
(i) The person is a male, given that the person has a
secondary education;
(ii) The person does not have a college degree, given 31
that the person is a female. Ans: (i) 28/78 = 14/39 (ii) 95/112
Question # 51
The following data were given in a study of a group of 1000 subscribers to a
certain magazine: In reference to job, marital status, and education there
were 312 professionals (P), 470 married persons (M), 525 college graduates
(C), 42 professional college graduates, 147 married college graduates, 86
married professionals, and 25 married professional college graduates.
1. Find the probabilities for the events P, M and C.
2. Find the probabilities for the events PM, PC and MC.
3. Show that the numbers reported in the study must be incorrect.
Ans: (1) P(P) = 0.312, P(M) = 0.470 P(C) = 0.525. (2) P(PM) = 0.086, P(PC) = 0.042, P(MC) = 0.147
(3 ) P(P  M  C) = P(P) + P(M) + P(C) – P(P ∩ M) – P(P ∩ C) – P(M ∩ C) + P (P ∩ M ∩ C)
P(P  M  C) = 0.312+ 0.470+ 0.525 – 0.086 – 0.042 – 0.147 + 0.025 = 1.057 > 1 (As we can see, the total number of subscribers we
calculated (1.057) is > 1, the total in the study. This indicates that there might be some errors or inconsistencies in the reported numbers. It's possible that there were mistakes made
during data collection or recording, which led to these discrepancies. )

Question # 52
In a random sample of UTC students 50% indicated they are business
majors, 40% engineering majors, and 10% other majors. Of the business
majors, 60% were females; whereas 30% of engineering majors were
females. Finally, 20% of the other majors were female.
i. What percentage of students in this sample was female?
ii. Given that a person is female, what is the probability that she is an
UTC Male Female
engineering major? BMaj
EMaj
20
28
30
12
50
40
Ans: (i) P(Female) = 44/100 = 44% (ii) P(E maj /Female) = 12/44 = 0.2727 OMaj 8 2 10
56 44 100
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 Bayes' Rule
Bayesian statistics is a collection of tools that is used in a special form of
statistical inference which applies in the analysis of experimental data in
many practical situations in science and engineering. Bayes’ rule is one of
the most important rules in probability theory. It is the foundation of
Bayesian inference.
It states that If the events A1, A2,…,Ak form a partition of sample space S,
that is, the events Ai are mutually exclusive and their union is S, and if B is
any other event of S such that it can occur only if one of the Ai occurs, then
for any i, P( Ai ) P( B / Ai )
P( Ai / B) = k , for i = 1,2,...,k
 P( Ai ) P( B / Ai )
i =1
k

If  P( A ) P( B / A ) = P( A ) P( B / A ) + P( A ) P( B / A ) + .... + P( A ) P( B / A ) = P( B)
i i 1 1 2 2 k k
i =1

P ( Ai ) P ( B / Ai )
then P ( Ai / B ) =
P( B)
33
Example # 10
In a certain assembly plant, three machines A1, A2 and
A3 make 25%, 35% and 40%, respectively of the
products. It is known from experience that 5%, 4% and
2% of the products made by each machine,
respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a
finished product is randomly selected. What is the
probability that the defective came from
(i) machine A1 (ii) machine A2 (iii) machine A3

P(A1) = 0.25, P(A2) = 0.35, and P(A3) = 0.40

Let D represent the event that product is defective. Then
the conditional probabilities are P(D/A1) = 0.05, P(D/A2) =
0.04, and P(D/A3) = 0.02
P(D) = P(A1)P(D/A1) + P(A2)P(D/A2) + P(A3)P(D/A3)
= 0.25 × 0.05 + 0.35 × 0.04 + 0.40 × 0.02 = 0.0345
𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐷 Τ𝐴1 ) 0.25 × 0.05
(𝑖) P(A1 /D) = = = 0.362
𝑃(𝐷) 0.0345
𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐷 Τ𝐴2 ) 0.35 × 0.04
(𝑖𝑖) P(A2 /D) = = = 0.406
𝑃(𝐷) 0.0345
𝑃(𝐴3 )𝑃(𝐷 Τ𝐴3 ) 0.40 × 0.02 34
(𝑖𝑖𝑖) P(A3 /D) = = = 0.232
𝑃(𝐷) 0.0345
Question # 53
In a certain university, 4% of the men and 1% of the
women are taller than 6 feet. Furthermore, 60% of
the students are women. Now if a student is selected
at random and is taller than 6 feet, what is the
probability that the student is a woman?
𝑃(𝑊)𝑃(𝐴/𝑊 ) 0.60 × 0.01
Ans: P(W/A) = = = 0.2727
𝑃(𝑊)𝑃(𝐴/𝑊 ) + 𝑃(𝑀)𝑃(𝐴/𝑀) 0.60 × 0.01 + 0.40 × 0.04

Question # 54
Three cooks A, B and C, bake a special kind of cake,
and with respective probabilities 0.02, 0.03 and 0.05
it fails to rise. In a restaurant where they work, A
bakes 50% of these cakes, B 30% and C 20%. What
proportions of “failures” is caused by A?
Ans: P(A) = 0.50, P(B) = 0.30 and P(C) = 0.20. Let M denote cake fails to rise. Then P(M/A) = 0.02, P(M/B) = 0.03 and P(M/C) = 0.05
𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝑀/𝐴) 0.50 × 0.02
P(A/M) = = = 0.3448 = 34.5%
𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝑀/𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝑀/𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶)𝑃(𝑀/𝐶 ) 0.50 × 0.02 + 0.30 × 0.03 + 0.20 × 0.05

35
Question # 55
Police plan to enforce speed limits by using a radar
traps at four different locations within the city limits.
The radar traps at each of the locations L1, L2, L3
and L4 will be opened 40%, 30%, 20%, and 30% of
the time. If a person who is speeding on her way to
work has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2
respectively, of passing through these locations,
(i) What is the probability that she will receive a
speeding ticket?
(ii) If the person received a speeding ticket on her
way to work, what is the probability that she
passed through the radar trap located at L2?
Ans: P(L1) = 0.4, P(L2) = 0.3, P(L3) = 0.2 and P(L4) = 0.3. Let R denote radar traps in speeding ticket. Then
P(R/ L1) = 0.2, P(R/ L2) = 0.1, P(R/ L3) = 0.5 and P(R/ L4) = 0.2
(i) P(R) = P(L1) × P(R/ L1) + P(L2) × P(R/ L2) + P(L3) × P(R/ L3) + P(L4) × P(R/ L4)
P(R) = 0.4 × 0.2 + 0.3 × 0.1 + 0.2 × 0.5 + 0.3 × 0.2 = 0.27
P(L2) × P(R/ L2) 0.3 × 0.1
(ii) P(L2/R) = = = 0.1111
P(R) 0.27

36
Question # 56
Circle the correct option i.e. A / B / C / D.
(1) A single six-sided die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling an even number:
(A) 0.1 (B) 0.51
(C) 0.5 (D) 0.25
(2) When three coins are tossed simultaneously, P(3 heads) is:
(A) 3/8 (B) 1/2
(C) 1/4 (D) 1/8
(3) A die and a coin are tossed together. Probability of getting head on the coin is:
(A) 6/12 (B) 6
(C) 12 (D) Zero
(4) Which is the impossible event when a die is rolled:
(A) 2 or 3 (B) 5 or 6
(C) 1 (D) 0 or 7
(5) Five cards are selected at random from a pack of 52 cards with replacement.
The possible combinations are:
(A) 52 (B) (52)5
(C) 52 × 52 (D) (5)52
(6) A letter is chosen at random from the word "Statistics". The probability of
getting a vowel is:
(A) 1/10 (B) 2/10
(C) 3/10 (D) 4/10
(7) The term 'sample space' is used for:
(A) Sample (B) All possible coins
(C) Probability (D) All possible outcomes
37
(8) Which of the following cannot be taken as probability of an event?
(A) 0 (B) 0.5
(C) 1 (D) –1
(9) When three coins are tossed simultaneously, P(Exactly 2 tails) is:
(A) 3/8 (B) 1/2
(C) 1/4 (D) 1/8
(10) What is probability of an event which is sure to happen?
(A) 0 (B) 1
(C) 0 < P(A) < 1 (D) Negative
(11) When two dice are rolled, the maximum total on the two faces of the dice will be:
(A) 6 (B) 36
(C) 2 (D) 12
(12) P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B/A), then A and B are:
(A) Independent (B) Mutually exclusive
(C) Dependent (D) Not Mutually exclusive
(13) If P(B/A) = 0.25 and P(A  B) = 0.20, then P(A) is:
(A) 0.05 (B) 0.80
(C) 0.95 (D) 0.75
(14) A card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that
the card is an ace or a king:
(A) 1/13 (B) 2/13
(C) 4/13 (D) 8/13
(15) The intersection of two events A and B is written as:
(A) A or B (B) A/B
(C) AB (D) A and B
38
Answer: 1. C 2. D 3. A 4. D 5. B 6. C 7. D 8. D 9. A 10. B 11. D 12. C 13. B 14. B 15. D
 PRACTICE
( Basic Skills & Concepts )

• What is the difference between an outcome and an event?

Outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment, but event can consist of more than one
outcomes.
• What is the range of values of the probability of an event?
Range of values is 0 to 1 inclusive.

PRACTICE
Complete the following statements 1. Zero
2. One
3. 4/52
1. If an event cannot occur, its probability is ______________. 4. Zero

2. The sum of the probabilities of the events in the sample space is _______.
3. From an ordinary deck, the probability of getting a king is ________.
4. When a single die is rolled, the probability of getting a 9 is ________.

39
 Homework
EXERCISES. (Elementary Statistics, Bluman, 4th Edition)
• Examples on Page # 176, 177, 183 ~ 192,
• Example # 5.13 ~ 5.14, 5.17 ~ 5.30,
• Exercises on page # 179 ~181, 186 ~188, 198.199.
• Problem #: 5.12 ~ 5.31, 5.48 ~ 5.64, 5.99 ~ 5.119.

40