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    Solutions Assignment 3 Probability

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    sirine zaltni
    This document contains solutions to 9 exercises on probability concepts covered in a Business Statistics I course. The exercises cover topics like mutually exclusive/collectively exhaustive events, probability calculations using formulas like the general addition rule and multiplication rule, probability matrices, and calculating conditional probabilities. For each exercise, the relevant probability formulas are stated and the calculations are shown.

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    Solutions Assignment 3 Probability

    Uploaded by

    sirine zaltni
    9 views4 pages
    This document contains solutions to 9 exercises on probability concepts covered in a Business Statistics I course. The exercises cover topics like mutually exclusive/collectively exhaustive events, probability calculations using formulas like the general addition rule and multiplication rule, probability matrices, and calculating conditional probabilities. For each exercise, the relevant probability formulas are stated and the calculations are shown.

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    This document contains solutions to 9 exercises on probability concepts covered in a Business Statistics I course. The exercises cover topics like mutually exclusive/collectively exhaustive events, probability calculations using formulas like the general addition rule and multiplication rule, probability matrices, and calculating conditional probabilities. For each exercise, the relevant probability formulas are stated and the calculations are shown.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    9 views4 pages

    Solutions Assignment 3 Probability

    Uploaded by

    sirine zaltni
    This document contains solutions to 9 exercises on probability concepts covered in a Business Statistics I course. The exercises cover topics like mutually exclusive/collectively exhaustive events, probability calculations using formulas like the general addition rule and multiplication rule, probability matrices, and calculating conditional probabilities. For each exercise, the relevant probability formulas are stated and the calculations are shown.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    Course Title: Business Statistics I

    Solutions Tutorial # 4
    Probability

    Exercise #1

    a. mutually exclusive and not collectively exhaustive


    b. mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
    c. mutually exclusive and not collectively exhaustive
    d. mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive

    Exercise #2

    a. 𝐶26 = 15

    𝐶13 ∗𝐶13
    b. = 0.6
    𝐶26

    Exercise #3

    𝐶620 = 38760 possible groups of 6.

    Exercise #4

    A: American has flown in an airplane at least once → P(A)=0.47


    B: Americans has ridden on a train at least once→ P(B)=0.28

    General addition rule:


    P(A or B)= P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)

    Events A and B are not mutually exclusive → we can’t assume that P(A and B)=0
    Thus this problem is not solvable.

    Exercise #5

    A: U.S. household with television has cable TV→ P(A)=0.67


    B: U.S. household with television has two or more TV sets → P(B)=0.74

    P(A and B)=0.55


    a. P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B) =0.86
    b. P(A or B)-P(A and B)=0.31
    c. P(A’ and B’)=1-P(A or B)=0.14
    1
    d. We can’t apply the special law of addition not apply to this problem because A and B
    are not Mutually Exclusive events.

    Exercise #6

    X: American adult is a stockholder→ P(X)=0.43


    Y: American adult has some college education→ P(Y)=0.37

    75% of all American adult stockholders have some college education → P(Y/X)=0.75

    a. P(X’)=1-P(X)=0.57
    57% of American Adults do not own stock.

    b. General Law of Multiplication


    P(X and Y)=P(Y/X)*P(X)=0.3225

    c. P(X or Y)=P(X)+P(Y)-P(X and Y)=0.4775

    d. P(X’ and Y’)=1-P(X or Y)=0.5225

    e. P(X’ or Y’)= P(X’)+P(Y’)-P(X’ and Y’)=0.6775

    f. P(Y and X’)=P(Y/X’)*P(X’)

    =[1-P(Y’/X’)]*P(X’)

    𝑃(𝑋 ′ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌 ′ )
    =[1 − ] ∗ 𝑃(𝑋 ′ )
    𝑃(𝑋 ′ )

    =0.0475

    Or we can use the Probability Matrix

    X
    Yes No
    Y Yes P(Y and X)=0.3225 P(Y and X’)=0.0475 P(Y)=0.37
    No P(Y’ and X)=0.1075 P(Y’ and X’)=0.5225 P(Y’)=0.63
    P(X)=0.43 P(X’)=0.57 1

    Exercise #7

    E: Economy is a challenge for growth→ P(E)=0.46


    Q: Finding qualified workers is a challenge for growth→ P(Q)=0.37
    P(E and Q)=0.15

    𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄)
    a. P(E/Q)= = 0.4054
    𝑃(𝑄)

    𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄)
    b. P(Q/E)= = 0.3261
    𝑃(𝐸)

    2
    𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸′) 𝑃(𝑄)−𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸) 0.22
    c. P(Q/E’)= = = 0.54 = 0.4074
    𝑃(𝐸′) 𝑃(𝐸 ′ )

    Probability Matrix

    Q
    Yes No
    E Yes P(E and Q)=0.15 P(E and Q’)=0.31 P(E)=0.46
    No P(E’ and Q)=0.22 P(E’ and Q’)=0.32 P(E’)=0.54
    P(Q)=0.37 P(Q’)=0.63 1

    d. P(Q’ and E’)=P(E’)- P(E’ and Q)=0.32

    Exercise #8

    H: Accountant purchases his computer hardware by mail order direct→ P(H)=0.37


    S: Accountant purchases his computer software by mail order direct→ P(S)=0.54
    P(S/H)=0.97

    a. P(S’/H)=1-P(S/H)=0.03
    𝑃(𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻 ′ ) 0.1811
    b. P(S/H’)= = = 0.2874
    𝑃(𝐻 ′ ) 0.63

    Probability Matrix

    H
    Yes No
    S Yes P(S and H)=0.3589 P(S and H’)=0.1811 P(S)=0.54
    No P(S’ and H)=0.0111 P(S’ and H’)=0.4489 P(S’)=0.46
    P(H)=0.37 P(H’)=0.63 1

    c. P(H’/S)=0.3353

    d. P(H’/S’)=0.9758

    Exercise #9

    A: machine A production→ P(A)=0.1


    B: machine B production→ P(B)=0.4
    C: machine C production→ P(C)=0.5
    D: Defective product
    P(D/A)=0.05; P(D/B)=0.12; P(D/C)=0.08

    3
    𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ A)∗P(A)
     Revised Probability: P(A/D)= = = 0.0538
    𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)

    Total probability formula:


    P(D)= P(D and A) +P(D and B)+ P(D and C)
    = [P(D/ A)*P(A)]+ [P(D/ B)*P(B)]+ [P(D/ C)*P(C)]
    =0.093
    𝑃(𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ B)∗P(B)
     Revised Probability: P(B/D)= = = 0.5161
    𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)

    𝑃(𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ C)∗P(C)


     Revised Probability: P(C/D)= = = 0.4301
    𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)

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