Time Estimates in Network Analysis

Activity time is a forecast of the time an activity is expected to take from its starting time to its completion, under
normal circumstances. The basic objective of the time analysis is to get a planned schedule of the project. The
plan should include: -
a. Total completion time for the project
b. Earliest time when each activity can begin
c. Latest time when each activity can be started, without delaying the total project
d. Float for each activity i.e. amount of time by which the completion of an activity can be delayed without
delaying the total project completion
e. Identification of critical activities and critical path.
➢ Slack time of event: It’s the difference between the latest event time and earliest event time
➢ Head Event slack (HES): It is the slack at the head (or terminal point) of an activity. It is the difference between
the latest event time and earliest event time at its head (or terminal point or node)
➢ Tail Event Slack (TES): It is the slack at the tail (or starting point) of an activity. It is the difference between
the latest event time and the earliest event time at its tail (or starting point or node).
➢ Earliest Finish Time (EFT): It’s equal to the latest finish time of the activity plus the duration of that activity.
➢ Latest Start Time (LST): It is equal to the latest finish time of the activity minus the duration of that activity.
➢ Total float: It represents the amount of time by which an activity can be delayed without delaying the project
completion date:
Total Float = Latest Start Time - Earliest Start Time
Total Float = Latest Finish time - Earliest Finish Time
➢ Free float: It is that portion of the total float within which an activity can be manipulated without affecting the
float of subsequent activities.
Free Float = Total Float - Head Event Slack
➢ Independent float: It is that portion of the total float within which an activity can be delayed for start without
affecting the float of preceding activities.
Independent Float = Total Float - Tail Event Slack
In case negative value is obtained, it is taken as zero
Difference between PERT and CPM
PERT technique was applied to research and development projects while the CPM was used towards construction
projects. Both of them in common the notion of a critical path and are based on the network plan that determines
the most critical activities to be controlled so as to meet completion dates.
The PERT Formula Requires Too Much Work.
• The network charts tend to be large and unwieldy.
• Calculating the time estimates is very complex for all the activities.
• Updating of the project is time consuming and requires high costs.
• Emphasis is laid only on time factors and cost factors are neglected.
The major differences between PERT and CPM are summarized as given below.
PERT CPM
Event oriented Activity oriented
Probabilistic in nature Deterministic in nature
Concerned with time Concerned with time and cost
PERT- used for R&D programs CPM- for construction projects
PERT is useful for non-repetitive and CPM is useful for repetitive and non-complex
complex projects with uncertain time projects with a certain degree of time estimates
estimates
Draw an activity network diagram based on the following information, and then answer questions 1-7 below.
You are the project manager for a new project and have figured out the following dependencies:
• Activity 1 can start immediately and has an estimated duration of 3 weeks.
• Activity 2 can start after activity 1 is completed and has an estimated duration of 3 weeks.
• Activity 3 can start after activity 1 is completed and has an estimated duration of 6 weeks.
• Activity 4 can start after activity 2 is completed and has an estimated duration of 8 weeks.
• Activity 5 can start after activity 4 is completed and after activity 3 is completed. This activity takes 4 weeks.
Questions:
1. What is the duration of the critical path?
2. What is the float of activity 3?
3. What is the float of activity 2?
4. What is the float of the path with the most float?
5. The resource working on activity 3 is replaced with another resource who is less experienced. The activity
will now take 10 weeks. How will this affect the project schedule?
6. A new activity 6 is added to the project. It will take 11 weeks to complete and must be completed before
activity 5 and after activity 3. Management is concerned that adding the activity will add 11 weeks to the project.
Another stakeholder argues the time will be less than 11 weeks. Who is correct? Use the original information
(without the change to activity 3 listed in the previous question) to answer this question.
7. Based on the information in the previous question, how much longer will the project take?
Answer
There are many ways to answer these questions. If you learned another way in other project management
training and are comfortable with that method, use it. Here is a simple way to compute the answers.
1. The length of the critical path is 18. There are two paths here:

Start, 1, 2, 4, 5, End is the longest duration path and is therefore the critical path at 18 weeks.
2. The float of activity 3 is 5 weeks, per the following diagram, which shows how to calculate float using the
forward and backward pass.

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You can use either float formula to compute float:
• Late finish – Early finish = 14 − 9 = 5, or
• Late start − Early start = 8 – 3 = 5.
3. The float of activity 2 is zero; it is on the critical path. An activity on the critical path generally has no float.
4. The float of the path with the longest float is 5 weeks. There are only two paths in this example:
a. Start, 1, 2, 4, 5, End and Start, 1, 3, 5, End.
b. Only the non-critical path (Start, 1, 3, 5, End) will have float.
c. You can calculate the float for this path by adding the float for each activity: 0 + 5 + 0 = 5.
d. Therefore, the total float of the path with the longest float is 5.
5. The resource change on activity 3 will have no effect.
a. The length of path activities 1, 3, and 5 is 13.
b. Adding 4 more weeks to the length of activity 3 will make that path 17.
c. Since that path is still shorter than the critical path, the critical path does not change.
d. The length of the critical path is still 18 weeks because activity 3 is not on the critical path.
6. The stakeholder who says the time added to the project will be less than 11 weeks is correct.
a. The new activity will be added to a non-critical path that has a float of 5 weeks.
b. Therefore, adding 11 weeks will make this path the new critical path.
c. The effect of adding an activity that takes 11 weeks is a delay to the project of 6 weeks.
7. The project will take 6 weeks longer. (Note: If you answered 24, you did not read the question correctly!)
Follow the bold arrows in the following diagram.

Exercise to Create an Activity Network Diagram

Activities
Activity Duration (week) Predecessors
A 1 –
B 2 –
C 2 A
D 4 A
E 1 B
F 2 C, D
G 3 E
H 1 G
I 4 G
J 1 F
K 3 J, H
L 4 I
M 1 K, L

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In this exercise, we have 13 nodes in total.

Figure: Activity Node with Labels

For instance, when we finish Activity A, we can start both Activity C and Activity D. When we finish both, we
can start Activity F.

Figure: Activity Network Diagram with Durations

Forward Pass:

To determine the early start and early finish dates, and on the last activity, the overall time to finish the whole
project. It is an additive move through the network from start to finish.

1. For two starting activities (A and B), ES is marked zero, which means that it is the very first day of
the project.

2. We add ES to the duration for each activity to find EF. For A, EF is (0+1) = 1 week, and for B, it is
(0+2) = 2 weeks. It means that we can finish A at the end of the first week, and finish B at the end of
the second week.
3. At a merge point, as is the case when C and D merge at F, we pass the highest EF time of
predecessors (C and D) to the successor activity (F). EF time of D becomes ES time for F.
4. When the forward pass is done, we can generate all ES and EF times for all the activities. The EF of
the last activity (M) gives us the overall duration of the project which is 15 weeks.

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Figure: Completion of the forward pass
Backward Pass
After we complete the forward pass process, we can start backward pass by moving from the last activity to the
starting activities. It is a subtractive move through the network from finish to the start. In exercise, the last
activity is M with a one-week duration, an ES of 14 weeks, and an EF of 15 weeks which also indicates the
overall duration of the project.
1. Late Finish (LF) for the last activity M is passed from EF (15 weeks). Then, we subtract LF from the
activity duration to find the Late Start (LS). It is (15-1) = 14 weeks. For Activity M, it is (14-14) or (15-
15), which is zero. Therefore, there are no slacks for this activity. We cannot have any delays to start
the activity or to finish it. The activities where slack is zero are critical.
2. The slack for L is (10-10) or (14-14), which is zero. Therefore, L is also a critical activity. The slack
for K is (11-8) or (14-11), which is 3. It means that we can wait for an additional three weeks to start K
because we need to wait until week 14.
3. At a burst point, as is the case when G is followed by two successors, H and I, we pass the lowest LS
time of successors (H and I) to the predecessor activity G as its LF time. Therefore, 6 becomes the LF
for Activity G.

4. When the backward pass is done for all the activities, we can generate all LS and LF times as well as
slack times for all of them. Thus, we can determine the critical path where the total slack is zero.

Figure: Completion of the backward pass

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The critical path of this project is B – E – G – I – L – M. It is also the longest path. We need to start and finish
all these six activities on their scheduled time not to cause any delay in the overall project. Non-critical paths
are: A – C – F – J – K – M: 1+2+2+1+3+1=10 weeks, A – D – F – J – K – M: 1+4+2+1+3+1=12 weeks, B
– E – G – H – K – M: 2+1+3+1+3+1=11 weeks
======================================================

Examples: PERT – Program Evaluation and Review Technique Example

The associated network is below. All the inputs are listed in the table below.

PERT Method Example

After building a network diagram and estimating the activity durations, you will determine the critical path by
making forward and backward pass calculations.
Forward Pass Calculations specify the minimum dates at which each activity can be performed and,
ultimately, the minimum duration of a project.
PERT -Forward Pass Calculation
Backward Pass Calculations determine the latest dates by which each activity can be performed without
increasing the projects minimum duration.

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PERT -Backward Pass Calculation
After completing the backward pass calculation, you can easily determine the critical path. In project
management, “float” or “slack” is the amount of time that a task can be delayed without affecting the deadlines
of other subsequent tasks, or the project’s final delivery date. Total float/slack is 0 on the critical path.

PERT Method -Activity

Total Float: LS – ES = 18-15 = 3 Total
Float: LF – EF = 30-27 = 3

The total float can be calculated by subtracting the Early Start date of an activity from its Late Start date or
Early Finish date from its Late Finish date.

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Critical Path: When we analyze the network diagram, we will see that there are some paths and every path have
duration. The critical path is the longest path in the network diagram and the total float of the critical path is zero.

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