Chapter 08
Chapter 08
Hypothesis Testing
1
Hypothesis Testing
Three methods used to test hypotheses:
1. The traditional method
2. The P-value method
3. The confidence interval method
2
8.1 Steps in Hypothesis Testing-
Traditional Method
A statistical hypothesis is a conjecture
about a population parameter. This
conjecture may or may not be true.
The null hypothesis, symbolized by H0,
is a statistical hypothesis that states that
there is no difference between a
parameter and a specific value, or that
there is no difference between two
parameters.
3
Steps in Hypothesis Testing-
Traditional Method
The alternative hypothesis,
symbolized by H1, is a statistical
hypothesis that states the existence of a
difference between a parameter and a
specific value, or states that there is a
difference between two parameters.
4
Situation A
A medical researcher is interested in finding out whether
a new medication will have any undesirable side effects.
The researcher is particularly concerned with the pulse
rate of the patients who take the medication. Will the
pulse rate increase, decrease, or remain unchanged
after a patient takes the medication? The researcher
knows that the mean pulse rate for the population under
study is 82 beats per minute.
5
Situation B
A chemist invents an additive to increase the life of an
automobile battery. The mean lifetime of the automobile
battery without the additive is 36 months.
H 0 : µ = 36 H1 : µ > 36
This is called a right-tailed hypothesis test.
6
Situation C
A contractor wishes to lower heating bills by using a
special type of insulation in houses. If the average of the
monthly heating bills is $78, her hypotheses about
heating costs with the use of insulation are
H 0 : µ = 78 H1 : µ < 78
This is called a left-tailed hypothesis test.
7
Claim
When a researcher conducts a study, he or she is
generally looking for evidence to support a claim.
Therefore, the claim should be stated as the alternative
hypothesis, or research hypothesis.
8
Hypothesis Testing
After stating the hypotheses, the
researcher’s next step is to design the
study. The researcher selects the
correct statistical test, chooses an
appropriate level of significance, and
formulates a plan for conducting the
study.
9
Hypothesis Testing
A statistical test uses the data
obtained from a sample to make a
decision about whether the null
hypothesis should be rejected.
The numerical value obtained from a
statistical test is called the test value.
In the hypothesis-testing situation,
there are four possible outcomes.
10
Hypothesis Testing
In reality, the null hypothesis may or may
not be true, and a decision is made to
reject or not to reject it on the basis of
the data obtained from a sample.
A type I error occurs if one rejects the
null hypothesis when it is true.
A type II error occurs if one does not
reject the null hypothesis when it is false.
11
Hypothesis Testing
12
Hypothesis Testing
The level of significance is the
maximum probability of committing a
type I error. This probability is
symbolized by α (alpha). That is,
P(type I error) = α.
Likewise,
P(type II error) = β (beta).
13
Hypothesis Testing
Typical significance levels are:
0.10, 0.05, and 0.01
14
Hypothesis Testing
The critical value, C.V., separates the critical region
from the noncritical region.
15
Hypothesis Testing
Finding the Critical Value for α = 0.01 (Right-Tailed Test)
16
Hypothesis Testing
Finding the Critical Value for α = 0.01 (Left-Tailed Test)
Because of symmetry,
z = -2.33 for α = 0.01 (Left-Tailed Test)
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Hypothesis Testing
Finding the Critical Value for α = 0.01 (Two-Tailed Test)
z = ±2.58
18
19
Procedure Table
Finding the Critical Values for Specific α Values,
Using Table E
Step 1 Draw the figure and indicate the appropriate area.
a. If the test is left-tailed, the critical region, with an
area equal to α, will be on the left side of the mean.
b. If the test is right-tailed, the critical region, with an
area equal to α, will be on the right side of the
mean.
c. If the test is two-tailed, α must be divided by 2; one-
half of the area will be to the right of the mean, and
one-half will be to the left of the mean.
20
Procedure Table
Finding the Critical Values for Specific α Values,
Using Table E
Step 2 Find the z value in Table E.
a. For a left-tailed test, use the z value that
corresponds to the area equivalent to α in Table E.
b. For a right-tailed test, use the z value that
corresponds to the area equivalent to 1 – α.
c. For a two-tailed test, use the z value that
corresponds to α / 2 for the left value. It will be
negative. For the right value, use the z value that
corresponds to the area equivalent to 1 – α / 2. It
will be positive.
21
Example 8-2: Using Table E
Using Table E in Appendix C, find the critical value(s) for
each situation and draw the appropriate figure, showing
the critical region.
a. A left-tailed test with α = 0.10.
22
Example 8-2: Using Table E
Using Table E in Appendix C, find the critical value(s) for
each situation and draw the appropriate figure, showing
the critical region.
b. A two-tailed test with α = 0.02.
27
Example 8-4: Cost of Men’s Shoes
A researcher claims that the average cost of men’s
athletic shoes is less than $80. He selects a random
sample of 36 pairs of shoes from a catalog and finds the
following costs (in dollars). (The costs have been rounded
to the nearest dollar.) Is there enough evidence to support
the researcher’s claim at α = 0.10? Assume σ = 19.2.
60 70 75 55 80 55 50 40 80 70 50 95
120 90 75 85 80 60 110 65 80 85 85 45
75 60 90 90 60 95 110 85 45 90 70 70
X −µ 75 − 80
z= = = −1.56
σ n 19.2 36
29
Example 8-4: Cost of Men’s Shoes
Step 4: Make the decision.
Since the test value, -1.56, falls in the critical
region, the decision is to reject the null
hypothesis.
32
Example 8-3: Professors’ Salaries
Step 4: Make the decision.
Since the test value, 1.32, is less than the critical
value, 1.65, and is not in the critical region, the
decision is to not reject the null hypothesis.
35
Example 8-5: Cost of Rehabilitation
The Medical Rehabilitation Education Foundation reports
that the average cost of rehabilitation for stroke victims is
$24,672. To see if the average cost of rehabilitation is
different at a particular hospital, a researcher selects a
random sample of 35 stroke victims at the hospital and
finds that the average cost of their rehabilitation is
$25,226. The standard deviation of the population is
$3251. At α = 0.01, can it be concluded that the average
cost of stroke rehabilitation at a particular hospital is
different from $24,672?
37
Example 8-5: Cost of Rehabilitation
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis, since the test
value falls in the noncritical region.
38
Hypothesis Testing
The P-value (or probability value) is the probability of
getting a sample statistic (such as the mean) or a more
extreme sample statistic in the direction of the
alternative hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true.
P-Value
Test Value
39
Hypothesis Testing
In this section, the traditional method for
solving hypothesis-testing problems compares
z-values:
critical value
test value
P-value
40
Procedure Table
Solving Hypothesis-Testing Problems
(P-Value Method)
Step 1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.
Step 2 Compute the test value.
Step 3 Find the P-value.
Step 4 Make the decision.
Step 5 Summarize the results.
41
Example 8-6: Cost of College Tuition
A researcher wishes to test the claim that the average
cost of tuition and fees at a four-year public college is
greater than $5700. She selects a random sample of 36
four-year public colleges and finds the mean to be $5950.
The population standard deviation is $659. Is there
evidence to support the claim at a 0.05? Use the P-value
method.
42
Example 8-6: Cost of College Tuition
A researcher wishes to test the claim that the average
cost of tuition and fees at a four-year public college is
greater than $5700. She selects a random sample of 36
four-year public colleges and finds the mean to be $5950.
The population standard deviation is $659. Is there
evidence to support the claim at a 0.05? Use the P-value
method.
X − µ 5950 − 5700
z= = = 2.28
σ n 659 36
43
Example 8-6: Cost of College Tuition
A researcher wishes to test the claim that the average
cost of tuition and fees at a four-year public college is
greater than $5700. She selects a random sample of 36
four-year public colleges and finds the mean to be $5950.
The population standard deviation is $659. Is there
evidence to support the claim at a 0.05? Use the P-value
method.
X −µ 8.2 − 8
z= = = 1.89
σ n 0.6 32
46
Example 8-7: Wind Speed
A researcher claims that the average wind speed in a
certain city is 8 miles per hour. A sample of 32 days has
an average wind speed of 8.2 miles per hour. The
standard deviation of the population is 0.6 mile per hour.
At α = 0.05, is there enough evidence to reject the claim?
Use the P-value method.
48
Significance
The researcher should distinguish between
statistical significance and practical
significance.
When the null hypothesis is rejected at a
specific significance level, it can be concluded
that the difference is probably not due to chance
and thus is statistically significant. However, the
results may not have any practical significance.
It is up to the researcher to use common sense
when interpreting the results of a statistical test.
49
8.3 t Test for a Mean
The t test is a statistical test for the mean of a population
and is used when the population is normally or
approximately normally distributed, α is unknown.
The formula for the t test is
X −µ
t=
s n
The degrees of freedom are d.f. = n – 1.
Find the 0.05 column in the top row and 16 in the left-hand column.
The critical t value is +1.746.
51
Example 8-9: Table F
Find the critical t value for α = 0.01 with d.f. = 22 for a left-
tailed test.
Find the 0.01 column in the One tail row, and 22 in the d.f. column.
The critical value is t = -2.508 since the test is a one-tailed left test.
Find the 0.10 column in the Two tails row, and 18 in the d.f. column.
The critical values are 1.734 and -1.734.
52
Example 8-12: Hospital Infections
A medical investigation claims that the average number of
infections per week at a hospital in southwestern
Pennsylvania is 16.3. A random sample of 10 weeks had
a mean number of 17.7 infections. The sample standard
deviation is 1.8. Is there enough evidence to reject the
investigator’s claim at α = 0.05?
54
Example 8-12: Hospital Infections
Step 4: Make the decision.
Reject the null hypothesis since 2.46 > 2.262.
55
Example 8-13: Substitute Salaries
An educator claims that the average salary of substitute
teachers in school districts in Allegheny County,
Pennsylvania, is less than $60 per day. A random sample
of eight school districts is selected, and the daily salaries
(in dollars) are shown. Is there enough evidence to
support the educator’s claim at α = 0.10?
60 56 60 55 70 55 60 55
X −µ 58.9 − 60
t= = = −0.61
s n 5.1 8
57
Example 8-12: Hospital Infections
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis since -0.61 falls
in the noncritical region.
60
Example 8-16: Jogger’s Oxygen Intake
Step 4: Make the decision.
The decision is to reject the null hypothesis, since
the P-value < 0.05.
61
Whether to use z or t
62
8.4 z Test for a Proportion
Since a normal distribution can be used to approximate
the binomial distribution when np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5, the
standard normal distribution can be used to test
hypotheses for proportions.
The formula for the z test for a proportion is
pˆ − p
z=
pq n
where
X
pˆ = ( sample proportion )
n
p = population proportion
n = sample size
63
Example 8-17: Avoiding Trans Fats
A dietitian claims that 60% of people are trying to avoid
trans fats in their diets. She randomly selected 200 people
and found that 128 people stated that they were trying to
avoid trans fats in their diets. At α = 0.05, is there enough
evidence to reject the dietitian’s claim?
64
Example 8-17: Avoiding Trans Fats
A dietitian claims that 60% of people are trying to avoid
trans fats in their diets. She randomly selected 200 people
and found that 128 people stated that they were trying to
avoid trans fats in their diets. At α = 0.05, is there enough
evidence to reject the dietitian’s claim?
67
Example 8-18: Call-Waiting Service
A telephone company representative estimates that 40%
of its customers have call-waiting service. To test this
hypothesis, she selected a sample of 100 customers and
found that 37% had call waiting. At α = 0.01, is there
enough evidence to reject the claim?
pˆ − p 0.37 − 0.40
z= = = −0.61
pq n ( 0.40 )( 0.60 ) 100
68
Example 8-18: Call-Waiting Service
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis since the test
value falls outside the critical region.
Standard Deviation
The chi-square distribution is also used to test a claim
about a single variance or standard deviation.
The formula for the chi-square test for a variance is
χ2 =
( n − 1) s 2
σ2
with degrees of freedom d.f. = n – 1 and
n = sample size
s2 = sample variance
σ2 = population variance
70
Assumptions for the χ Test for a
2
71
Example 8-21: Table G
Find the critical chi-square value for 15 degrees of
freedom when α = 0.05 and the test is right-tailed.
χ 2 = 24.996
72
Example 8-22: Table G
Find the critical chi-square value for 10 degrees of
freedom when α = 0.05 and the test is left-tailed.
73
Example 8-22: Table G
Find the critical chi-square value for 10 degrees of
freedom when α = 0.05 and the test is left-tailed.
χ 2 = 3.940
74
Example 8-23: Table G
Find the critical chi-square value for 22 degrees of
freedom when α = 0.05 and a two-tailed test is conducted.
75
Example 8-24: Variation of Test Scores
An instructor wishes to see whether the variation in scores
of the 23 students in her class is less than the variance of
the population. The variance of the class is 198. Is there
enough evidence to support the claim that the variation of
the students is less than the population variance (σ2 =225)
at α = 0.05? Assume that the scores are normally
distributed.
76
Example 8-24: Variation of Test Scores
An instructor wishes to see whether the variation in scores
of the 23 students in her class is less than the variance of
the population. The variance of the class is 198. Is there
enough evidence to support the claim that the variation of
the students is less than the population variance (σ2 =225)
at α = 0.05? Assume that the scores are normally
distributed.
χ =
2 ( n − 1) s 2
( 22 )(198 )
= = 19.36
σ
2
225
77
Example 8-24: Variation of Test Scores
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis since the test
value 19.36 falls in the noncritical region.
79
Example 8-26: Nicotine Content
A cigarette manufacturer wishes to test the claim that the
variance of the nicotine content of its cigarettes is 0.644.
Nicotine content is measured in milligrams, and assume
that it is normally distributed. A sample of 20 cigarettes
has a standard deviation of 1.00 milligram. At α = 0.05, is
there enough evidence to reject the manufacturer’s claim?
χ =
2
= = 29.5
σ
2
0.644
80
Example 8-26: Nicotine Content
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis, since the test
value falls in the noncritical region.
82
Example 8-30: Sugar Production
Sugar is packed in 5-pound bags. An inspector suspects
the bags may not contain 5 pounds. A sample of 50 bags
produces a mean of 4.6 pounds and a standard deviation
of 0.7 pound. Is there enough evidence to conclude that
the bags do not contain 5 pounds as stated at α = 0.05?
Also, find the 95% confidence interval of the true mean.
83
Example 8-30: Sugar Production
Sugar is packed in 5-pound bags. An inspector suspects
the bags may not contain 5 pounds. A sample of 50 bags
produces a mean of 4.6 pounds and a standard deviation
of 0.7 pound. Is there enough evidence to conclude that
the bags do not contain 5 pounds as stated at α = 0.05?
Also, find the 95% confidence interval of the true mean.
84
Example 8-30: Sugar Production
Step 4: Make the decision.
Reject the null hypothesis.
85
Example 8-30: Sugar Production
The 95% confidence interval for the mean is
s s
X − zα 2 < µ < X + zα 2
n n
0.7 0.7
4.6 − (1.96 ) < µ < 4.6 + (1.96 )
50 50
4.4 < µ < 4.8
Notice that the 95% confidence interval of m does not
contain the hypothesized value μ = 5.