Lecture 8

Hypothesis Testing

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Hypothesis Testing
Researchers are interested in answering many types of
questions. For example,
 Is the earth warming up?
 Does a new medication lower blood pressure?
 Does the public prefer a certain color in a new fashion line?
 Is a new teaching technique better than a traditional one?
 Do seat belts reduce the severity of injuries?
These types of questions can be addressed through
statistical hypothesis testing, which is a decision-making
process for evaluating claims about a population.

2
Steps in Hypothesis Testing

 A statistical hypothesis is a conjecture about a

population parameter. This conjecture may or may
not be true.
 The null hypothesis, symbolized by H0, is a
statistical hypothesis that states that there is no
difference between a parameter and a specific value,
or that there is no difference between two parameters.
 The alternative hypothesis is symbolized by H1.

3
Steps in Hypothesis Testing

 The alternative hypothesis,

symbolized by H1, is a statistical
hypothesis that states the existence of a
difference between a parameter and a
specific value, or states that there is a
difference between two parameters.

4
Situation A
A medical researcher is interested in finding out whether
a new medication will have any undesirable side effects.
The researcher is particularly concerned with the pulse
rate of the patients who take the medication. Will the
pulse rate increase, decrease, or remain unchanged
after a patient takes the medication? The researcher
knows that the mean pulse rate for the population under
study is 82 beats per minute.
The hypotheses for this situation are
H 0 :  82 H1 :  82
This is called a two-tailed hypothesis test.

5
Situation B
A chemist invents an additive to increase the life of an
automobile battery. The mean lifetime of the automobile
battery without the additive is 36 months.

In this book, the null hypothesis is always stated using

the equals sign. The hypotheses for this situation are

H 0 :  36 H1 :   36
This is called a right-tailed (upper-tailed, one-tailed,
one-sided) hypothesis test.

6
Situation C
A contractor wishes to lower heating bills by using a
special type of insulation in houses. If the average of the
monthly heating bills is $78, her hypotheses about
heating costs with the use of insulation are
H 0 :  78 H1 :   78

This is called a left-tailed hypothesis test.

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Claim
When a researcher conducts a study, he or she is
generally looking for evidence to support a claim.
Therefore, the claim should be stated as the alternative
hypothesis, or research hypothesis.

A claim, though, can be stated as either the null

hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis; however, the
statistical evidence can only support the claim if it is the
alternative hypothesis. Statistical evidence can be used
to reject the claim if the claim is the null hypothesis.
These facts are important when you are stating the
conclusion of a statistical study.

8
Hypothesis Testing
 After stating the hypotheses, the
researcher’s next step is to design the
study. The researcher selects the
correct statistical test, chooses an
appropriate level of significance, and
formulates a plan for conducting the
study.

9
Hypothesis Testing
 A statistical test uses the data
obtained from a sample to make a
decision about whether the null
hypothesis should be rejected.
 The numerical value obtained from a
statistical test is called the test value.
 In the hypothesis-testing situation,
there are four possible outcomes.

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Hypothesis Testing
 In reality, the null hypothesis may or may
not be true, and a decision is made to
reject or not to reject it on the basis of
the data obtained from a sample.
 A type I error occurs if one rejects the
null hypothesis when it is true.
 A type II error occurs if one does not
reject the null hypothesis when it is false.

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Hypothesis Testing

12
Hypothesis Testing
 The level of significance is the
maximum probability of committing a
type I error. This probability is
symbolized by a (alpha). That is,
P(type I error) = a.

Likewise,
P(type II error) = b (beta).

13
Hypothesis Testing
 Typical significance levels are:
0.10, 0.05, and 0.01

 For example, when a = 0.10, there is a

10% chance of rejecting a true null
hypothesis.

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Hypothesis Testing
 Null Hypothesis(“=”)v.s. Alternative Hypothesis(claim)

 Two-tailed; Right-tailed; Left-tailed.

 Type I error; Type II error.

 Fact: With the fixed number of data, a testing

method, which has the smallest probability to make
Type I error and Type II error happen, does not
exist.

 Control Type I error (make its probability within

level of significance), then minimize Type II error.
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Hypothesis Testing
Three methods used to test hypotheses:
1. The critical value method
2. The P-value method
3. The confidence interval method

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The critical value method

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Hypothesis Testing
 The critical value, C.V., separates the critical region
from the noncritical region.

 The critical or rejection region is the range of

values of the test value that indicates that there is a
significant difference and that the null hypothesis
should be rejected.

 The noncritical or nonrejection region is the range

of values of the test value that indicates that the
difference was probably due to chance and that the
null hypothesis should not be rejected.

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z Test for a Mean
The z test is a statistical test for the mean of a population.
It can be used when n  30, or when the population is
normally distributed and  is known.
The formula for the z test is
X 
z
 n
where
X = sample mean
μ = hypothesized population mean
 = population standard deviation
n = sample size

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Hypothesis Testing
Finding the Critical Value for α = 0.01 (Right-Tailed Test)

z = 2.33 for α = 0.01 (Right-Tailed Test)

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Hypothesis Testing
Finding the Critical Value for α = 0.01 (Left-Tailed Test)

Because of symmetry,
z = –2.33 for α = 0.01 (Left-Tailed Test)

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Hypothesis Testing
Finding the Critical Value for α = 0.01 (Two-Tailed Test)

z = ±2.58

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Example: Days on Dealers’ Lots
A researcher wishes to see if the mean number of days
that a basic, low-price, small automobile sits on a dealer’s
lot is 29. A sample of 30 automobile dealers has a mean
of 30.1 days for basic, low-price, small automobiles.

At α = 0.05, test the claim that the mean time is greater

than 29 days. The standard deviation of the population is
3.8 days.

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Example: Days on Dealers’ Lots
Step 1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

Step 2 Find the critical value. Since α = 0.05 and the

test is a right-tailed test, the critical value is
z = +1.65.

Step 3 Compute the test value.

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Example: Days on Dealers’ Lots
Step 4 Make the decision. Since the test value, +1.59,
is less than the critical value, +1.65, and is not
in the critical region, the decision is to not reject
the null hypothesis.

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Example: Days on Dealers’ Lots
Step 5 Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to support the

claim that the mean time is greater than 29
days.

Critical Value method help us build a testing method:

In this question, we will not reject the null hypothesis
if z =< 1.65. We will reject the null hypothesis, if z > 1.65.

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Important Comments
Even though in the above Example the sample
mean of 30.1 is higher than the hypothesized
population mean of 29, it is not significantly higher.

Hence, the difference may be due to chance.

When the null hypothesis is not rejected, there is

still a probability of a type II error, i.e., of not
rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false.

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Example: Cost of Men’s Shoes
A researcher claims that the average cost of men’s athletic
shoes is less than $80. He selects a random sample of 36
pairs of shoes from a catalog and finds the following costs
(in dollars). (The costs have been rounded to the nearest
dollar.) Is there enough evidence to support the
researcher’s claim at α = 0.10? Assume  = 19.2.
60 70 75 55 80 55 50 40 80 70 50 95
120 90 75 85 80 60 110 65 80 85 85 45
75 60 90 90 60 95 110 85 45 90 70 70

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: μ = $80 and H1: μ < $80 (claim)

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Example: Cost of Men’s Shoes
A researcher claims that the average cost of men’s athletic
shoes is less than $80. He selects a random sample of 36
pairs of shoes from a catalog and finds the following costs
(in dollars). (The costs have been rounded to the nearest
dollar.) Is there enough evidence to support the
researcher’s claim at α = 0.10? Assume  = 19.2.
60 70 75 55 80 55 50 40 80 70 50 95
120 90 75 85 80 60 110 65 80 85 85 45
75 60 90 90 60 95 110 85 45 90 70 70

Step 2: Find the critical value.

Since α = 0.10 and the test is a left-tailed test, the
critical value is z = –1.28.

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Example: Cost of Men’s Shoes
A researcher claims that the average cost of men’s athletic
shoes is less than $80. He selects a random sample of 36
pairs of shoes from a catalog and finds the following costs
(in dollars). (The costs have been rounded to the nearest
dollar.) Is there enough evidence to support the
researcher’s claim at α = 0.10? Assume  = 19.2.

Step 3: Compute the test value.

Using technology, we find X= 75.0 and  = 19.2.

X  75  80
z   1.56
 n 19.2 36

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Example: Cost of Men’s Shoes
Step 4: Make the decision.
Since the test value, –1.56, falls in the critical
region, the decision is to reject the null
hypothesis.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is enough evidence to support the claim
that the average cost of men’s athletic shoes is
less than $80.

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Example: Cost of Men’s Shoes

Critical Value method help us build a testing method:

In this question, we will not reject the null hypothesis
if z >= -1.28. We will reject the null hypothesis, if z < -1.28.

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Example: Cost of Rehabilitation
The Medical Rehabilitation Education Foundation reports
that the average cost of rehabilitation for stroke victims is
$24,672. To see if the average cost of rehabilitation is
different at a particular hospital, a researcher selects a
random sample of 35 stroke victims at the hospital and
finds that the average cost of their rehabilitation is
$26,343. The standard deviation of the population is
$3,251. At α = 0.01, can it be concluded that the average
cost of stroke rehabilitation at a particular hospital is
different from $24,672?

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: μ = $24,672 and H1: μ  $24,672 (claim)

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Example: Cost of Rehabilitation
Step 2: Find the critical value.
Since α = 0.01 and a two-tailed test, the critical
values are z = ±2.58.

Step 3: Find the test value.

X   26, 343  24, 672

z  3.04
 n 3251 35

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Example: Cost of Rehabilitation
Step 4: Make the decision.
Reject the null hypothesis, since the test value
falls in the critical region.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is enough evidence to support the claim
that the average cost of rehabilitation at the
particular hospital is different from $24,672.

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The P-value method

36
Hypothesis Testing
The P-value (or probability value) is the probability of
getting a sample statistic (such as the mean) or a more
extreme sample statistic in the direction of the
alternative hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true.

P-Value

Test Value

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Hypothesis Testing
 In this section, the critical value method for
solving hypothesis-testing problems compares
z-values:
 critical value

 test value

 The P-value method for solving hypothesis-

testing problems compares areas:
 alpha

 P-value

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Example: Cost of College Tuition
A researcher wishes to test the claim that the average
cost of tuition and fees at a four-year public college is
greater than $5700. She selects a random sample of 36
four-year public colleges and finds the mean to be $5950.
The population standard deviation is $659. Is there
evidence to support the claim at a 0.05? Use the P-value
method.

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: μ = $5700 and H1: μ > $5700 (claim)

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Example: Cost of College Tuition
Step 2: Compute the test value.
X   5950  5700
z  2.28
 n 659 36

Step 3: Find the P-value.

Using normal table, find the area for z = 2.28.
The area is 0.9887.
Subtract from 1.0000 to find the area of the tail.
Hence, the P-value is 1.0000 – 0.9887 = 0.0113.

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Example: Cost of College Tuition
Step 4: Make the decision.
Since the P-value is less than 0.05, the decision is
to reject the null hypothesis.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is enough evidence to support the claim that
the tuition and fees at four-year public colleges are
greater than $5700.
Note: If α = 0.01, the null hypothesis would not be rejected.
41
Example: Wind Speed
A researcher claims that the average wind speed in a
certain city is 8 miles per hour. A sample of 32 days has
an average wind speed of 8.2 miles per hour. The
standard deviation of the population is 0.6 mile per hour.
At α = 0.05, is there enough evidence to reject the claim?
Use the P-value method.

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: μ = 8 (claim) and H1: μ ≠ 8

Step 2: Compute the test value.

X  8.2  8
z  1.89
 n 0.6 32
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Example: Wind Speed
Step 3: Find the P-value.
The area for z = 1.89 is 0.9706.
Subtract: 1.0000 – 0.9706 = 0.0294.
Since this is a two-tailed test, the area of 0.0294
must be doubled to get the P-value.
The P-value is 2(0.0294) = 0.0588.

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Example: Wind Speed
Step 4: Make the decision.
The decision is to not reject the null hypothesis,
since the P-value is greater than 0.05.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to reject the claim
that the average wind speed is 8 miles per hour.

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Guidelines for P-Values With No α
 If P-value  0.01, reject the null hypothesis. The
difference is highly significant.
 If P-value > 0.01 but P-value  0.05, reject the
null hypothesis. The difference is significant.
 If P-value > 0.05 but P-value  0.10, consider
the consequences of type I error before
rejecting the null hypothesis.
 If P-value > 0.10, do not reject the null
hypothesis. The difference is not significant.

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Significance
 The researcher should distinguish between
statistical significance and practical
significance.
 When the null hypothesis is rejected at a
specific significance level, it can be concluded
that the difference is probably not due to chance
and thus is statistically significant. However, the
results may not have any practical significance.
 It is up to the researcher to use common sense
when interpreting the results of a statistical test.

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Significance
 For example, suppose that a new fuel additive
increases the miles per gallon that a car can get
by 1/4 mile for a sample of 1000 automobiles.

 The results may be statistically significant at the

0.05 level.

 But it would hardly be worthwhile to market the

product for such a small increase. Hence, there
is no practical significance to the results.

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t Test for a Mean
The t test is a statistical test for the mean of a population
and is used when the population is normally or
approximately normally distributed,  is unknown.
The formula for the t test is
X 
t
s n
The degrees of freedom are d.f. = n – 1.

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Example: Substitute Salaries
An educator claims that the average salary of substitute
teachers in school districts in Allegheny County,
Pennsylvania, is less than $60 per day. A random sample of
eight school districts is selected, and the daily salaries (in
dollars) are shown. Is there enough evidence to support the
educator’s claim at α = 0.10? Assume the salary is normally
distributed.
60 56 60 55 70 55 60 55

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: μ = 60 and H1: μ < 60 (claim)

Step 2: Find the critical value.

At α = 0.10 and d.f. = 7, the critical value is –1.415.
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50
Example: Substitute Salaries
Step 3: Find the test value.
X = 58.88 and s = 5.08.

X   58.88  60
t   0.624
s n 5.08 8

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Example: Substitute Salaries
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis since –0.624 falls
in the noncritical region.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to support the claim
that the average salary of substitute teachers in
Allegheny County is less than $60 per day.

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Example: Jogger’s Oxygen Uptake
A physician claims that joggers’ maximal volume oxygen
uptake is greater than the average of all adults. A sample
of 15 joggers has a mean of 40.6 milliliters per kilogram
(ml/kg) and a standard deviation of 6 ml/kg. If the average
of all adults is 36.7 ml/kg, is there enough evidence to
support the physician’s claim at α = 0.05? Assume the
data is approximately normally distributed.

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: μ = 36.7 and H1: μ > 36.7 (claim)

Step 2: Compute the test value.

X   40.6  36.7
t  2.517
s n 6 15 53
Example: Jogger’s Oxygen Uptake
Step 3: Find the P-value.
In the d.f. = 14 row, 2.517 falls between 2.145 and
2.624, corresponding to α = 0.025 and α = 0.01.
Thus, the P-value is somewhere between 0.01
and 0.025, since this is a one-tailed test.

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55
Example : Jogger’s Oxygen Uptake
Step 4: Make the decision.
The decision is to reject the null hypothesis, since
the P-value < 0.05.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is enough evidence to support the claim that
the joggers’ maximal volume oxygen uptake is
greater than 36.7 ml/kg.

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Whether to use z or t

57
z Test for a Proportion
Since a normal distribution can be used to approximate
the binomial distribution when np  5 and nq  5, the
standard normal distribution can be used to test
hypotheses for proportions.
The formula for the z test for a proportion is
pˆ  p
z
pq n
where
X
pˆ  sample proportion 
n
p  population proportion
n  sample size

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Example: Avoiding Trans Fats
A dietician claims that 60% of people are trying to avoid
trans fats in their diets. She randomly selected 200 people
and found that 128 people stated that they were trying to
avoid trans fats in their diets. At α = 0.05, is there enough
evidence to reject the dietitian’s claim?

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: p = 0.60 (claim) and H1: p  0.60

Step 2: Find the critical value.

Since α = 0.05 and the test is a two-tailed test, the
critical value is z = ±1.96.

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Example: Avoiding Trans Fats
Step 3: Compute the test value.
X 128
pˆ   0.64
n 200
pˆ  p 0.64  0.60
z  1.15
pq n 0.60 0.40  200

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Example: Avoiding Trans Fats
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis since the test
value falls outside the critical region.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to reject the claim
that 60% of people are trying to avoid trans fats in
their diets.

61
Example: Family/Medical Leave Act
The Family and Medical Leave Act provides job protection
and unpaid time off from work for a serious illness or birth
of a child.

In 2000, 60% of the respondents of a survey stated that it

was very easy to get time off for these circumstances. A
researcher wishes to see if the percentage who said that it
was very easy to get time off has changed.

A sample of 100 people who used the leave said that 53%
found it easy to use the leave. At α = 0.01, has the
percentage changed?

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Example 8-18: Family/Medical Leave Act
Step 1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

Step 2 Find the critical value(s). Since α = 0.01 and this

test is two-tailed, the critical values are ±2.58.

Step 3 Compute the test value. It is not necessary to

ˆ 53%.
find p̂ since it is given in the exercise; p
Substitute in the formula and evaluate.

63
Example: Family/Medical Leave Act
Step 4 Make the decision. Do not reject the null
hypothesis, since the test value falls in the
noncritical region.

64
Example: Family/Medical Leave Act
Step 5 Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to support the

claim that the percentage of those using the
medical leave said that it was easy to get has
changed.

65
 2 Test for a Variance or a Standard Deviation

The chi-square distribution is also used to test a claim

about a single variance or standard deviation.
The formula for the chi-square test for a variance is

2 
 
n  1 s 2

2
with degrees of freedom d.f. = n – 1 and
n = sample size
s2 = sample variance
2 = population variance

66
Assumptions for the  Test for a
2

Variance or a Standard Deviation

1. The sample must be randomly selected from
the population.
2. The population must be normally distributed
for the variable under study.
3. The observations must be independent of
one another.

67
Example: Variation of Test Scores
An instructor wishes to see whether the variation in scores
of the 23 students in her class is less than the variance of
the population. The variance of the class is 198. Is there
enough evidence to support the claim that the variation of
the students is less than the population variance (2 =225)
at α = 0.05? Assume that the scores are normally
distributed.

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: 2 = 225 and H1: 2 < 225 (claim)

Step 2: Find the critical value.

The critical value is  2
= 12.338.

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69
Example: Variation of Test Scores
Step 3: Compute the test value.

 
2  n  1 s 2
 22 198 
 19.36
2
225

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Example: Variation of Test Scores
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis since the test
value 19.36 falls in the noncritical region.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to support the claim
that the variation in test scores of the instructor’s
students is less than the variation in scores of the
population.

71
Example: Nicotine Content
A cigarette manufacturer wishes to test the claim that the
variance of the nicotine content of its cigarettes is 0.644.
Nicotine content is measured in milligrams, and assume
that it is normally distributed. A sample of 20 cigarettes
has a standard deviation of 1.00 milligram. At α = 0.05, is
there enough evidence to reject the manufacturer’s claim?

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: 2 = 0.644 (claim) and H1: 2  0.644

Step 2: Find the critical value.

The critical values are 32.852 and 8.907.

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73
Example: Nicotine Content
Step 3: Compute the test value.
The standard deviation s must be squared in the
formula.

 n  1 s 19 1.00 
2 2

 
2
 29.5
2
0.644

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Example: Nicotine Content
Step 4: Make the decision.
Do not reject the null hypothesis, since the test
value falls in the noncritical region.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to reject the
manufacturer’s claim that the variance of the
nicotine content of the cigarettes is 0.644.

75
Additional Topics Regarding Hypothesis Testing

 There is a relationship between confidence intervals

and hypothesis testing.
 When the null hypothesis is rejected in a hypothesis-
testing situation, the confidence interval for the mean
using the same level of significance will not contain the
hypothesized mean.
 Likewise, when the null hypothesis is not rejected, the
confidence interval computed using the same level of
significance will contain the hypothesized mean.

76
Example: Sugar Production
Sugar is packed in 5-pound bags. An inspector suspects
the bags may not contain 5 pounds. A sample of 50 bags
produces a mean of 4.6 pounds and a standard deviation
of 0.7 pound. Is there enough evidence to conclude that
the bags do not contain 5 pounds as stated at α = 0.05?
Also, find the 95% confidence interval of the true mean.

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

H0: μ = 5 and H1: μ  5 (claim)

Step 2: Find the critical values.

The critical values are t = ±2.010.

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Example: Sugar Production
Step 3: Compute the test value.
X  4.6  5.0
t   4.04
s n 0.7 50
Step 4: Make the decision.
Since -4.04 < -2.010, the null hypothesis is
rejected.

Step 5: Summarize the results.

There is enough evidence to support the claim
that the bags do not weigh 5 pounds.

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Example: Sugar Production
The 95% confidence interval for the mean is

Notice that the 95% confidence interval of m does not

contain the hypothesized value μ = 5.
Hence, there is agreement between the hypothesis test
and the confidence interval.

79
Power of a Statistical Test
The power of a test measures the sensitivity of
the test to detect a real difference in parameters if
one actually exists. The higher the power, the
more sensitive the test. The power is 1 – β.

80
Example: Days on Dealers’ Lots
A researcher wishes to see if the mean number of days
that a basic, low-price, small automobile sits on a dealer’s
lot is 29. A sample of 30 automobile dealers has a mean
of 30.1 days for basic, low-price, small automobiles.

At α = 0.05, test the claim that the mean time is greater

than 29 days. The standard deviation of the population is
3.8 days.

81
Example: Days on Dealers’ Lots
Step 1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

Step 2 Find the critical value. Since α = 0.05 and the

test is a right-tailed test, the critical value is
z = +1.65.

Step 3 Compute the test value.

82
Example: Days on Dealers’ Lots
Step 4 Make the decision. Since the test value, +1.59,
is less than the critical value, +1.65, and is not
in the critical region, the decision is to not reject
the null hypothesis.

83
Example: Days on Dealers’ Lots
Step 5 Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to support the

claim that the mean time is greater than 29
days.

Critical Value method help us build a testing method:

In this question, we will not reject the null hypothesis
if z =< 1.65. We will reject the null hypothesis, if z > 1.65.

84
Power of a Statistical Test
We cannot compute β for : μ > 29 because the
true μ is unknown. We can only compute it when
μ is given. For example, if we know μ = 30, then

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Power of a Statistical Test
Now we consider α = 0.1

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