224 Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distributions

Number If the winner has to mail in the winning ticket to claim the
of Prizes Amount Probability prize, what will be the expectation if the cost of the stamp
is considered? Use the current cost of a stamp for a first
1
1 $100,000 class letter.
1,000,000
1
2 $10,000
50,000
1
5 $1,000
10,000
1
10 $100
1,000

6–4 Many types of probability problems have only two outcomes, or they can be reduced to
two outcomes. For example, when a coin is tossed, it can land heads or tails. When a
The Binomial baby is born, it will be either male or female. In a basketball game, a team either wins
Distribution or loses. A true–false item can be answered in only two ways, true or false. Other situa-
Objective 3. Find the exact tions can be reduced to two outcomes. For example, a medical treatment can be classi-
probability for X successes in fied as effective or ineffective, depending on the results. A person can be classified as
n trials of a binomial having normal or abnormal blood pressure, depending on the measure of the blood pres-
experiment. sure gauge. A multiple-choice question, even though there are four or five answer
choices, can be classified as correct or incorrect. Situations like these are called bino-
mial experiments.
 Section 6–4 The Binomial Distribution 225

Historical Note A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the following four requirements:
In 1653, Blaise Pascal 1. Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that can be reduced to two outcomes. These outcomes
created a triangle of can be considered as either success or failure.
numbers called Pascal’s 2. There must be a fixed number of trials.
triangle that can be used 3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each other.
in the binomial
4. The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial.
distribution.

A binomial experiment and its results give rise to a special probability distribution
called the binomial distribution.

The outcomes of a binomial experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these outcomes are called a
binomial distribution.

In binomial experiments, the outcomes are usually classified as successes or fail-

ures. For example, the correct answer to a multiple-choice item can be classified as a
success, but any of the other choices would be incorrect and hence classified as a fail-
ure. The notation that is commonly used for binomial experiments and the binomial dis-
tribution is defined next.

Notation for the Binomial Distribution

P(S) The symbol for the probability of success
P(F) The symbol for the probability of failure
p The numerical probability of a success
q The numerical probability of a failure
P(S)  p and P(F)  1  p  q
n The number of trials
X The number of successes
Note that 0  X  n.

The probability of a success in a binomial experiment can be computed with the

following formula.

Binomial Probability Formula

In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X successes in n trials is
n!
PX  • p X • q nX
n  X !X!

An explanation of why the formula works will be given following Example 6–15.

Example 6–15 A coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.

Solution
This problem can be solved by looking at the sample space. There are three ways to get
two heads.
226 Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distributions

HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT

The answer is 83, or 0.375.

Looking at the problem in Example 6–15 from the standpoint of a binomial exper-
iment, one can show that it meets the four requirements.
1. There are only two outcomes for each trial, heads or tails.
2. There is a fixed number of trials (three).
3. The outcomes are independent of each other (the outcome of one toss in no way
affects the outcome of another toss).
4. The probability of a success (heads) is 21 in each case.
In this case, n  3, X  2, p  21, and q  12. Hence, substituting in the formula gives

  
3! 1211 3
P 2 heads   •   0.375
 3  2  !2! 2 2 8

which is the same answer obtained by using the sample space.

The same example can be used to explain the formula. First, note that there are
three ways to get exactly two heads and one tail from a possible eight ways. They are
HHT, HTH, and THH. In this case, then, the number of ways of obtaining two heads
from three coin tosses is 3C2, or 3, as shown in Chapter 4. In general, the number of
ways to get X successes from n trials without regard to order is
n!
n CX 
 n  X  !X!

This is the first part of the binomial formula. (Some calculators can be used for this.)
Next, each success has a probability of 12, and can occur twice. Likewise, each fail-
ure has a probability of 12 and can occur once, giving the (21)2(21)1 part of the formula. To
generalize, then, each success has a probability of p and can occur X times, and each
failure has a probability of q and can occur (n  X) times. Putting it all together yields
the binomial probability formula.

Example 6–16 If a student randomly guesses at five multiple-choice questions, find the probability that
the student gets exactly three correct. Each question has five possible choices.

Solution
In this case n  5, X  3, and p  15, since there is one chance in five of guessing a cor-
rect answer. Then,

  
5! 1342
P 3   •  0.05
 5  3  !3! 5 5

Example 6–17 A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited (Northbrook, Ill.) found that 30% of
teenage consumers receive their spending money from part-time jobs. If five
teenagers are selected at random, find the probability that at least three of them will have
part-time jobs.
 Section 6–4 The Binomial Distribution 227

Solution
To find the probability that at least three have a part-time job, it is necessary to find
the individual probabilities for either 3, or 4, or 5, and then add them to get the total
probability.
5!
P 3   • 0.3  30.7 2  0.132
5 3 !3!
5!
P 4   • 0.3  40.7 1  0.028
 5  4  ! 4  !

5!
P 5   • 0.3  50.7 0  0.002
 5  5  ! 5  !

Hence,
P(at least three teenagers have part-time jobs)
 0.132  0.028  0.002  0.162

Computing probabilities using the binomial probability formula can be quite te-
dious at times, so tables have been developed for selected values of n and p. Table B in
Appendix C gives the probabilities for individual events. The next example shows how
to use Table B to compute probabilities for binomial experiments.

Example 6–18 Solve the problem in Example 6–15 by using Table B.

Solution
Since n  3, X  2, and p  0.5, the value 0.375 is found as shown in Figure 6–3.
Figure 6–3 p p = 0.5
Using Table B for
n X 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95
Example 6–18
2 0

3 0 0.125

n=3 1 0.375

2 0.375
X=2
3 0.125

Example 6–19 Public Opinion reported that 5% of Americans are afraid of being alone in a house at
night. If a random sample of 20 Americans is selected, find these probabilities using the
binomial table:
a. There are exactly five people in the sample who are afraid of being alone at night.
228 Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distributions

b. There are at most three people in the sample who are afraid of being alone at night.
c. There are at least three people in the sample who are afraid of being alone at night.
Source: 100% American by Daniel Evan Weiss (New York: Poseidon Press, 1988).

Solution
a. n  20, p  0.05, and X  5. From the table, one gets 0.002.
b. n  20 and p  0.05. “At most three people” means 0, or 1, or 2, or 3.
Hence, the solution is
P(0)  P(1)  P(2)  P(3)  0.358  0.377  0.189  0.060
 0.984

c. n  20 and p  0.05. “At least three people” means 3, 4, 5, . . . , 20. This problem
can best be solved by finding P(0)  P(1)  P(2) and subtracting from 1.
P(0)  P(1)  P(2)  0.358  0.377  0.189  0.924
1  0.924  0.076

A report from the Secretary of Health and Human Services stated that 70% of single-
Example 6–20
vehicle traffic fatalities that occur at night on weekends involve an intoxicated driver. If
a sample of 15 single-vehicle traffic fatalities that occur at night on a weekend is se-
lected, find the probability that exactly 12 involve a driver who is intoxicated.
Source: 100% American by Daniel Evan Weiss (New York: Poseidon Press, 1988).

Solution
n  15, p  0.70, and X  12. From Table B, P(12)  0.170. Hence, the probability
is 0.17.

Remember that in the use of the binomial distribution, the outcomes must be inde-
pendent. For example, in the selection of components from a batch to be tested, each
component must be replaced before the next one is selected. Otherwise, the outcomes
are not independent. However, a dilemma arises because there is a chance that the same
component could be selected again. This situation can be avoided by not replacing the
component and using the hypergeometric distribution to calculate the probabilities. The
hypergeometric distribution is presented later in this chapter. Note that when the popu-
lation is large and the sample is small, the binomial probabilities can be shown to be
nearly the same as the corresponding hypergeometric probabilities.
Objective 4. Find the mean,
variance, and standard Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation for the Binomial Distribution
deviation for the variable of a The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a variable that has the binomial distribution can
binomial distribution. be found by using the following formulas.
mean n•p
variance n•p•q
2

standard deviation  n • p • q

These formulas are algebraically equivalent to the formulas for the mean, variance,
and standard deviation of the variables for probability distributions, but because they are
 Section 6–4 The Binomial Distribution 229

for variables of the binomial distribution, they have been simplified using algebra. The
algebraic derivation is omitted here, but their equivalence is shown in the next example.

Example 6–21 A coin is tossed four times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the num-
ber of heads that will be obtained.

Solution
With the formulas for the binomial distribution and n  4, p  21, and q  12 , the re-
sults are

 n • p  4 • 12  2
2
 n • p • q  4 • 21 • 12  1
 1  1

From Example 6–21, when four coins are tossed many, many times, the average of
the number of heads that appear is two, and the standard deviation of the number of
heads is one. Note that these are theoretical values.
As stated previously, this problem can be solved by using the expected value for-
mulas. The distribution is shown as follows:
No. of heads, X 0 1 2 3 4
1 4 6 4 1
Probability, P(X) 16 16 16 16 16

 E(X)   X • P(X)  0 • 161  1 • 164  2 • 166  3 • 164  4 • 161  16

32
2
2
  X 2 • P(X)  2
 02 • 161  12 • 164  22 • 166  32 • 164  42 • 161  22  80
16  4  1
 1  1

Hence, the simplified binomial formulas give the same results.

Example 6–22 A die is rolled 480 times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the num-
ber of 2 s that will be rolled.

Solution
n  480, p  16. This is a binomial situation, where getting a 2 is a success and not get-
ting a 2 is a failure; hence,
 n • p  480 • (16)  80
2
 n • p • q  480 • (61) (56)  66.7
 n • p • q  66.7  8.2

On average, there will be 80 twos. The standard deviation is 8.2.

Example 6–23 The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported that 2%
of all American births result in twins. If a random sample of 8000 births is taken, find the
mean, variance, and standard deviation of the number of births that would result in twins.
Source: 100% American by Daniel Evan Weiss (New York: Poseidon Press, 1988).
230 Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distributions

Solution
This is a binomial situation, since a birth can result in either twins or not twins (i.e., two
outcomes).
 n • p  (8000)(0.02)  160
2
 n • p • q  (8000)(0.02)(0.98)  156.8
 n • p • q  156.8  12.5
For the sample, the average number of births that would result in twins is 160, the
variance is 156.8, or 157, and the standard deviation is 12.5, or 13 if rounded.

Exercises
6–63. Which of the following are binomial experiments or For Exercises 6–66 through 6–75, assume all variables
can be reduced to binomial experiments? are binomial. (Note: If values are not found in Table B
a. Surveying 100 people to determine if they like Sudsy (Appendix C), use the binomial formula.)
Soap.
6–66. A burglar alarm system has six fail-safe components.
b. Tossing a coin 100 times to see how many heads occur.
The probability of each failing is 0.05. Find these
c. Drawing a card from a deck and getting a heart.
probabilities.
d. Asking 1000 people which brand of cigarettes they
a. Exactly three will fail.
smoke.
b. Fewer than two will fail.
e. Testing four different brands of aspirin to see which
c. None will fail.
brands are effective.
d. Compare the answers for parts a, b, and c, and explain
f. Testing one brand of aspirin using 10 people to
why the results are reasonable.
determine whether it is effective.
g. Asking 100 people if they smoke. 6–67. A student takes a 10-question, true–false exam and
h. Checking 1000 applicants to see whether they were guesses on each question. Find the probability of passing if
admitted to White Oak College. the lowest passing grade is 6 correct out of 10.
i. Surveying 300 prisoners to see how many different Based on your answer, would it be a good idea not to study
crimes they were convicted of. and depend on guessing?
j. Surveying 300 prisoners to see whether this is their first 6–68. If the quiz in Exercise 6–67 was a multiple-choice
offense. quiz with five choices for each question, find the
6–64. (ans) Compute the probability of X successes, using probability of guessing at least 6 correct out of 10.
Table B in Appendix C. 6–69. In a survey, 30% of the people interviewed said that
a. n  2, p  0.30, X  1 they bought most of their books during the last three
b. n  4, p  0.60, X  3 months of the year (October, November, December). If nine
c. n  5, p  0.10, X  0 people are selected at random, find the probability that
d. n  10, p  0.40, X  4 exactly three of these people bought most of their books
e. n  12, p  0.90, X  2 during October, November, and December.
f. n  15, p  0.80, X  12
Source: USA Snapshot, USA Today, May 24, 1995.
g. n  17, p  0.05, X  0
h. n  20, p  0.50, X  10 6–70. In a Gallup Survey, 90% of the people
i. n  16, p  0.20, X  3 interviewed were unaware that maintaining a healthy
weight could reduce the risk of stroke. If 15 people are
6–65. Compute the probability of X successes, using the
selected at random, find the probability that at least 9 are
binomial formula.
unaware that maintaining a proper weight could reduce the
a. n  6, X  3, p  0.03
risk of stroke.
b. n  4, X  2, p  0.18
c. n  5, X  3, p  0.63 Source: USA Snapshot, USA Today, June 24, 1995.
d. n  9, X  0, p  0.42 6–71. In a survey, three of four students said the
e. n  10, X  5, p  0.37 courts show “too much concern” for criminals. Find
 Section 6–4 The Binomial Distribution 231

the probability that at most three out of seven randomly 6–79. If 2% of automobile carburetors are defective, find
selected students will agree with this statement. the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a lot of 500
Source: Harper’s Index 290, no. 1739 (April 1995), p. 13. carburetors.
6–72. It was found that 60% of American victims of health 6–80. It has been reported that 83% of federal
care fraud are senior citizens. If 10 victims are randomly government employees use e-mail. If a sample of 200
selected, find the probability that exactly 3 are senior federal government employees is selected, find the
citizens. mean, variance, and standard deviation of the number
Source: 100% American by Daniel Evan Weiss (New York: who use e-mail.
Poseidon Press, 1988). Source: USA Today, June 14, 1995.

6–73. R. H. Bruskin Associates Market Research found 6–81. A survey found that 21% of Americans watch
that 40% of Americans do not think having a college fireworks on television on July 4. Find the mean, variance,
education is important to succeed in the business world. If a and standard deviation of the number of individuals who
random sample of five Americans is selected, find these watch fireworks on television on July 4 if a random sample
probabilities. of 1000 Americans is selected.
a. Exactly two people will agree with that statement. Source: USA Snapshot, USA Today, July 3–4, 1995.
b. At most three people will agree with that statement.
c. At least two people will agree with that statement. 6–82. In a restaurant, a study found that 42% of all patrons
d. Fewer than three people will agree with that statement. smoked. If the seating capacity of the restaurant is 80
people, find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of
Source: 100% American by Daniel Evans Weiss (New York:
the number of smokers.
Poseidon Press, 1988).
About how many seats should be available for smoking
6–74. If 30% of the people in a community use the library customers?
in one year, find these probabilities for a sample of 15
6–83. A survey found that 25% of pet owners had their
people:
pets bathed professionally rather than doing it themselves.
a. At most 7 used the library.
If 18 pet owners are randomly selected, find the probability
b. Exactly 7 used the library.
that exactly five people have their pets bathed
c. At least 5 used the library.
professionally.
6–75. If 20% of the people in a community use the Source: USA Snapshot, USA Today, June 15, 1995.
emergency room at a hospital in one year, find these
probabilities for a sample of 10 people. 6–84. In a survey, 63% of Americans said they own an
a. At most three used the emergency room. answering machine. If 14 Americans are selected at
b. Exactly three used the emergency room. random, find the probability that exactly 9 own an
c. At least five used the emergency room. answering machine.
Source: USA Snapshot, USA Today, May 22, 1995.
6–76. (ans) Find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation for each of the values of n and p when the 6–85. One out of every three Americans believes that the
conditions for the binomial distribution are met. U.S. government should take “primary responsibility” for
a. n  100, p  0.75 eliminating poverty in the United States. If 10 Americans
b. n  300, p  0.3 are selected, find the probability that at most 3 will believe
c. n  20, p  0.5 that the U.S. government should take primary responsibility
d. n  10, p  0.8 for eliminating poverty.
e. n  1000, p  0.1 Source: Harper’s Index 289, no. 1735 (December 1994), p. 13.
f. n  500, p  0.25
6–86. In a survey, 58% of American adults said they had
g. n  50, p  25
never heard of the Internet. If 20 American adults are
h. n  36, p  16
selected at random, find the probability that exactly 12 will
6–77. A study found that 1% of Social Security recipients say they have never heard of the Internet.
are too young to vote. If 800 Social Security recipients are Source: Harper’s Index 289, no. 1737 (February 1995), p. 11.
randomly selected, find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of the number of recipients who are too young 6–87. In the past year, 13% of businesses have eliminated
to vote. jobs. If five businesses are selected at random, find the
Source: Harper’s Index 289, no. 1737 (February 1995), p. 11. probability that at least three have eliminated jobs during
6–78. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the last year.
the number of heads when 15 coins are tossed. Source: USA Today, June 15, 1995.
232 Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distributions

6–88. Of graduating high school seniors, 14% said that children. From this graph, construct a probability
their generation will be remembered for their social distribution.
concerns. If seven graduating seniors are selected at P (X )
random, find the probability that either two or three will
agree with that statement. 0.375

Probability
Source: USA Today, June 8, 1995.
0.250
6–89. A survey found that 86% of Americans have never
been a victim of violent crime. If a sample of 12 Americans 0.125
is selected at random, find the probability that 10 or more X
have never been victims of violent crime. Does it seem
reasonable that 10 or more have never been victims of 0 1 2 3

violent crime? Number of girls

Source: Harper’s Index 290, no 1741 (June 1995), p. 11.

*6–91. Construct a binomial distribution graph for
*6–90. The graph shown here represents the probability the number of defective computer chips in a lot of five if
distribution for the number of girls in a family of three p  0.2.

Technology Step by Step

MINITAB Making a Binomial Distribution Table and Graph

Step by Step These instructions will show how MINITAB computes binomial probabilities, using n  20 and
p  0.05.

1. To enter the integers from 0 to 20 in C1 select Calc>Make Patterned Data>Simple

Set of Numbers.
2. You must enter 3 items:
a. Enter X in the box for Store patterned data in:. Minitab will use the first
empty column of the active worksheet and name it X. Press [TAB].
b. Enter the value of 0 for the first value. Press [TAB].
c. Enter 20 for the last value.
3. Click [OK].
4. Select Calc>Probability Distributions>Binomial.
Binomial Distribution
Dialog Box

5. In the dialog box you must enter 5 items.

a. Click the button for Probability.
b. In the box for Number of trials enter 20, the value of n.
c. Enter .05 the numerical Probability of success.
 Section 6–4 The Binomial Distribution 233

d. Check the button for Input columns. Click in the box and type the column name, X.
e. Click in the box for Optional storage type Px. The first available column will be
named Px and the calculated probabilities will be stored in it.
6. Click [OK].

The results in the worksheet are shown.

Worksheet

TI-83 The Binomial Distribution

Step by Step To find the probability for a binomial variable:
Example: n  20 X5 p  0.05
1. Press 2nd [DISTR] then 0 to get binompdf(.
2. Enter 20, .05, 5) then press ENTER.
The calculator will display .002244646.
Compare that result with that for Example 6–19 part a.
To find the probability for several values of a binomial variable:
Example: n  20 x  0, 1, 2, 3 p  0.05
1. Press 2nd [DISTR] 0 to get binompdf(.
2. Enter 20, .05, {0, 1, 2, 3}) then press ENTER.
234 Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distributions

The calculator will display {.3584859224, .3773536025, .1886768013, .0595821478}

Use the arrow keys to view the entire display. Compare with Example 6–19 part b.
To find the cumulative probability for a binomial variable:
Example: n  20 X  0, 1, 2, 3 p  0.05

1. Press 2nd [DISTR] A to get binomcdf(.

2. Enter 20, .05, 3) then press ENTER.

The calculator will display .984098474.

Compare with Example 6–19 part b.

6–5 In addition to the binomial distribution, other types of distributions are used in statistics.
Three of the most commonly used distributions are the multinomial distribution, the
Other Types of Poisson distribution, and the hypergeometric distribution. They are described in the fol-
Distributions (Optional) lowing subsections.

The Multinomial Recall that in order for an experiment to be binomial, two outcomes are required
Distribution for each trial. But if each trial in an experiment has more than two outcomes, a distribu-
Objective 5. Find tion called the multinomial distribution must be used. For example, a survey might
probabilities for outcomes of require the responses of “approve,” “disapprove,” or “no opinion.” In another situation,
variables using the Poisson, a person may have a choice of one of five activities for Friday night, such as a
hypergeometric, and movie, dinner, baseball game, play, or party. Since these situations have more than
multinomial distributions. two possible outcomes for each trial, the binomial distribution cannot be used to com-
pute probabilities.
The multinomial distribution can be used for such situations if the probabilities for
each trial remain constant and the outcomes are independent for a fixed number of trials.
The events must also be mutually exclusive.

Formula for the Multinomial Distribution

If X consists of events E1, E2, E3, . . . , Ek, which have corresponding probabilities p1, p2,
p3, . . . , pk of occurring, and X1 is the number of times E1 will occur, X2 is the number of times
E2 will occur, X3 is the number of times E3 will occur, etc., then the probability that X will
occur is
n!
PX  • pX1 • pX2 2 • . . . • pXk k
X1! • X2! • X3! • . . . • Xk! 1
where X1  X2  X3  . . .  Xk  n, and p1  p2  p3  . . .  pk  1