Research question:

What is the expected value for various lotteries around the world and which lottery is therefore the most worth it to play?

Aim:

Analysing and comparing the expected amount won, as a percentage of the amount wagered, in various lotteries around

the world: the South African National Lotto, the chinese “welfare lottery”, the Portuguese Totoloto, the Euromillions, the

Canadian Powerball, Australia’s “Oz Lotto”, the New York State Lotto, and the Wisconsin state Mega Millions lottery, in

order to examine which lottery is the most worth it for the consumers.

Introduction:

The lottery has existed for thousands of years9, the first being documented around 14th century France, where it

functioned as a means to raise money for the poor. By the 17th century Italy the first national lottery was created with

weekley drawings in order to raise money for the state. The lottery is considered the basis for modern gambling- giving

people the hope to gain money by spending money. Today, this has expanded through investment or the growing scene of

cryptocurrency.

According to FHEHealth, an addiction treatment centre in the US, the majority of lottery players come from lower

income families6. Families in the US are classified as low-income when making less than $42,000 per year and high

income when earning over $126,000 per year16. When analysing the cost and frequency of playing the lottery to average

income in the different wealth classes, one can see that lower-income families pay a higher percentage of their income.

The Wisconsin State Mega Millions Lottery is drawn twice a week. Assuming a family partakes in one drawing each

week costing $2,00, a family in the uppermost bracket of low income, with an income of $42,000, spends at least 0.248%

of their income on lottery tickets. A family making half of that, $21,000 spends almost 0.495% of their income. A high

income family however, earning $126,000 per year, spends only 0.0825% of their income, if even partaking in the lottery.

Considering their chances, one has to question whether this is worth it.

Growing up, the concept of the lottery and the player's determination and belief in it fascinated me, yet also struck me

with a lot of confusion… how could it be that one could win millions of dollars, by spending only a couple of cents?

Through this Investigation various lotteries around the world will be analysed, focusing on their probabilities and

expected values, as well as the methods used by lottery creators, in order to develop a deeper understanding and critique

whether or not the Lottery is worth it, and if so, which is most worth it?
Background Information:

The lottery is a form of gambling in which players buy a low-priced ticket in the hope of winning a large reward.

Depending on the region, some governments do not condone the playing of the lottery whilst others use it to their benefit,

to raise money for the state9. There are many forms of the lottery world-wide, with different prices, prizes, rules and

numbers. Almost every country has its own National Lottery and many have additional further lotteries for their

population to play. Most commonly, the concealed purpose of the lottery is for the benefit of the government, as when one

wins the lottery the government receives a portion of the winning through taxes. Despite there being many different forms

of lottery games, the mathematics behind them is all quite similar: with the intention that the player spends more money

buying lottery tickets or cards, than the amount they could win considering their odds. Through mathematics, the game of

the lottery and the intention of it, can be analysed and critiqued. This concept is also explored in this investigation.

As mentioned previously, the majority of lottery players come from lower income families6. Therefore, it can be assumed

that the true odds and probabilities of the game are often overlooked, in favour of the appeal of a large cash prize. This

could be because of the way lotteries are advertised and presented, through large signs and slogans, promoting the

consumption and convincing the population through adjusted probabilities that the chances of winning are not slim. In the

United States alone, around 48% of the population actively play the lottery, of which 72% believe that they will win6.

One must also analyse this ethically, connecting to the IB TOK concept of the Ethics in Mathematics, as the players of the

lottery are almost being taken advantage of, considering its purpose is to benefit the government. The costs and

probabilities of the games has to be critiqued, also considering as it is a gambling game, players can become “addicted” to

the lottery.

In contrast however, the games’ odds and other statistical tools are available on the various websites, as used in this

exploration.
Methodology:

The first step in the process of answering the research question was gathering secondary research on the respective lottery

games including the instructions, costs and the estimated prizes from the official lottery websites. The values were found

in November 2021 and act only as a means to calculate and analyse the statistics of the various lotteries and therefore may

not be accurate timelessly.

The probability of winning the jackpots were calculated using 𝑛𝐶𝑟, and the probability of not winning the jackpot was

then calculated by minusing this probability by one. These values were further analysed by calculating the expected

values, as it is a helpful tool in comparing the outcomes of the lotteries and includes all potential prizes and the

probabilities of winning them. This was approached in two steps.

First, the expected value without the cost of playing was calculated. This value was then used and compared to the cost

of playing to determine the extent to which it may be beneficial or unbeneficial to the consumer, creating the standardised

expected value. This analyses how ‘fair’ the various games are, on their own and in respect to each other.

Additionally to this, in the ‘Data Interpretation’ section of the exploration, some of the methods and tools used in the

lotteries were examined. Techniques discovered through the secondary research and calculations, such as the use of bonus

numbers were analysed to develop a deeper understanding behind the mathematics and the intentions of the lottery

creators.

Lotteries/Variables of choice for the Investigation

In this investigation, the lotteries which will be analysed are the South African National Lotto, China’s Welfare lottery, the

Portuguese Totoloto, the Euromillions, the Canadian Powerball, Australia’s Oz Lotto, the New York State Lotto and

finally the Wisconsin state Mega Millions lottery.

These were chosen as they assemble a large variety of estimated prizes and jackpots, as well as a large variety of

probabilities. It includes 6 continents: Africa, Asia, Oceania, North and South America, and Europe, in order to analyse

the relationship between the regions and the expected values.

Smaller lotteries were chosen alongside large ones in order to analyse the difference between lotteries that are played by

many players vs only some. Such as the Totoloto, a national lottery in Portugal, and the Euromillions which is played in

over nine countries, with a high estimated prize and costs per ticket and can be used for further analysis of this concept.

These variables are analysed using multiple probability calculations and techniques, and compared thoroughly.
Secondary Data:

Table 1: Summary of the various selected lottery games, including their region, their instructions, costs and estimated

Jackpot.

Name of lottery Region Game type Cost per Ticket JackPot Prize*

South African Southern Africa Pick six numbers between 1-52 R 5.00 R 5,994,241
National Lotto
€ 0.29 € 341,714

Chinese Welfare Asia Pick six numbers between 1-50 + one € 0.50 € 500,000
Lottery
“Fú Ball” between 1-5

Portuguese Europe Pick five numbers between 1-49 + one € 0.90 € 7,190,100
Totoloto
number between 1-13

Euromillions Europe Pick five numbers between 1-50 + two € 2.50 € 54,149,066

“lucky stars” between 1-12

Powerball Canada North America Pick five numbers between 1-69 or white $ 2.00 $ 151,000,000

balls + one number between 1-26 for a € 1.73 € 130,760,715

red ball

Australian Oz Oceania Pick seven numbers between 1-45 AUS$ 1.10 AUS$ 1,273,827
Lotto
€ 0.70 € 811,582

New York State North America Pick six numbers between 1-59 $ 1.00 $ 7,100,000
Lotto
€ 0.87 € 6,147,986

Wisconsin state North America Pick five numbers between 1-70 + one $ 2.00 $ 36,000,000
Mega Millions
“Mega Ball” number between 1-25 € 1.73
Lottery

* on the 10.11.2021
Calculations:

I. Probability of winning the jackpot:

As mentioned previously, the first step in answering the research question was calculating the probability of winning the

various jackpots. In order to win a jackpot, all chosen numbers must match the winning combination. For example, for the

South African National Lotto, one must get 6 numbers correct from 52 possible numbers.

This probability would manually be calculated by:

6 5 4 3 2 1 720 1
P(winning the jackpot)= 52
× 51
× 50
× 49
× 48
× 47
= 14,700,000,000
= 20,358,520

In order to calculate this more efficiently, nCr was used.

𝑛!
Using nCr the total number of possible combinations were discovered using the formula: nCr = 𝑟! (𝑛−𝑟)!

Where, n = total numbers available in the set for choosing, and r = the amount of correct numbers chosen.

In order to win the Jackpot one must have the exact combination: therefore the probability is 1/nCr. Which, for the South

African Lotto would be 1/52𝐶6. This calculation is shown below for two different types of lotteries.

i. Sample calculation finding the probability of winning a ii. Sample calculation of finding the probability of
simple Jackpot (without bonus numbers): winning a Jackpot containing bonus numbers:
(South African National Lotto): (Powerball):
The number of possible combinations: (5 numbers between 1-69) 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 69𝐶5
𝑛!
=
52! 52!
= 6! × 46! = 20,358,520 (1 number between 1-26) 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 26𝐶1
𝑟! (𝑛−𝑟)! 6!(52−6)!
∴ 69𝐶5 × 26𝐶1 = 139, 838, 160
or 𝑛𝐶𝑟= 52𝐶6 = 20,358,520
1
1 ∴ Probability of winning =
∴ Probability of winning = 20,358,520
292,201,338

II. Probability of not winning the jackpot

The probability of not winning the jackpot was then calculated by using the previously calculated probability of winning

the jackpot and subtracting this value from 1.

iii. Sample calculation finding the probability of not winning

the jackpot:

(South African National Lotto):

1
1- 20,358,520
= 0.9999999509
III. Expected value

The next step was calculating the expected value for all lotteries using their various prizes and the respective probabilities.

The probabilities of winning each prize was calculated following the steps above, using nCr.

Using the formula for expected value, 𝐸(𝑥) = Σ𝑥𝑖𝑃𝑖, this was then calculated. The found values are all illustrated in

table 4.

The expected value is the average value expected to obtain when carrying out a specific experiment multiple times, also

known as the random variable. Which in this exploration is partaking in the Lottery, and the expected value illustrates the

average value of the random variable per trial: the amount one expects to win every time one participates in the lottery.

This is a vital calculation for this investigation, as it assesses the possible outcomes for each of the lotteries, based on the

probabilities and prizes, which can later be analysed in respect to the cost of the games.

iv. Sample Calculation of Expected Value

Table 2: Illustrating South African National Lottery: all possible prizes (R) for specific numbers matched and the

probability of each.

Nrs 6 5+Bonus 5 4+Bonus 4 3+Bonus 3 2+Bonus

Matched:

X 5,994,241 186,429 7,276 1,568 242 118 50 20

P (X=x) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20,358,520 3,393,087 75,402 30,161 1,371 1,028 72 96

𝐸(𝑥) = Σ𝑥𝑖𝑃𝑖

= 𝑥1𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥1) + 𝑥2𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥2) + 𝑥3𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥3) + ... + 𝑥𝑁𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥𝑁)

1 1 1 1 1
= (5, 994, 241 × 20,358,520 ) + (186, 429 1 × 3,393,087 ) + (7,276 × 75,402 ) + (1,568 × 30,161 ) + (242 × 1,371 ) +

1 1 1
(118 × 1,028 ) + (50 × 72 ) + (20× 96 )

∴ 𝐸(𝑥) = 0.304

This value is the average value one is expected to win when partaking in the South African National Lotto randomly.

This formula was used to calculate all expected values. However, for the Chinese Welfare Lottery, different calculations

had to be used in order to find the expected value. This is because its prizes do not follow a common pattern as the other

lotteries do.

In Image 1, a table from the official website can be seen, in which the various prizes are illustrated in the second column.

Besides the Jackpot of €500,000 the prizes consist of €0.50 (the cost of playing) or €0.50+ a free bet bonus.
Image 1: A table from the official website, illustrating the statistics of the Chinese Welfare Lottery.

Due to the possibility of winning a free bet, the expected value for the Chinese Welfare Lottery had to be calculated in a

more elaborate fashion. The individual probabilities of winning the jackpot, winning a free bet bonus or losing were

calculated. The probability of winning €0.50 is a complementary event of winning the jackpot and losing, therefore this

was calculated in the end.

This problem was first drawn and illustrated using a tree diagram in order to simplify and organise the process.

Diagram 1: Probability tree diagram representing the Chinese Welfare Lottery

Key:

J: Winning the Jackpot

F: Getting a ‘Free Bet Bonus’

L: Losing
First, P(J) was calculated:

From the diagram it was concluded that P(J) =P(J or FJ or FFJ or FFFJ …)

1 1 1
Where, P(J) = 79,453,500
and P(F) = 11
+ 12

1 23 1 23 2 1 23 3 1
∴ P(J) = 79,453,500
+ ( 132 × 79,453,500
) + (( 132 ) × 79,453,500
) + (( 132 ) × 79,453,500
)…

𝑢1 1 23
Which resulted in a geometric sequence, 𝑆∞ = 1−𝑟
, where u1 = 79,453,500
and r = 132

1/79453500
∴𝑆∞ = 1 − (23/132)
= 0.00000000152

Then, P(L) was calculated:

From image 1, it was determined that in order to win nothing (P(L)) one must match 0 numbers and no fú ball, or match 1

6𝐶0 ×44𝐶6 4 6𝐶1 ×44𝐶5 4

number and no fú ball. Thus giving, ( 50𝐶6
× 5
) + ( 50𝐶6
× 5
) = 0. 683

However, it was also found that one could win nothing, P(L) by P(L)= P(L or FL or FFL or FFFL …).

For the purpose of this investigation the value 0.683 was used to draw conclusions, yet a in depth calculation of P(L) was

also attempted:

𝑢1
It was concluded that P(L) follows the same trend as P(J), creating a geometric sequence: 𝑆∞ = 1−𝑟

1 1
Where, P(L) = 0.683, as calculated previously and P(F)= 11
+ 12

23 23 2 23 3
∴ P(L) = 0. 683 + ( 132 × 0. 683) + (( 132 ) × 0. 683) + (( 132 ) × 0. 683) …

𝑢1 23 0.683
Therefore 𝑆∞ = 1−𝑟
where u1= 0.683 and r= 132
, resulting in 𝑆∞ = 1 − (23/132)
= 0.827

Finally, as P(0.50) is a complementary event to P(J) and P(L), it was calculated by

P(0.50) = 1 - (P(L) - P(J))

= 1 - (0.683 - 0.000000152) = 0.317

This value however is not exact. This is because there is a possibility that one can continuously win the free bet bonus.

For the purpose of this exploration, this value has been chosen for analysis.

Yet, a calculation into the probability of getting a Free Bet forever was also attempted in order to develop a deeper

understanding;

It was found that P(Free Bet Bonus Forever) = P(FFFFFF…) as n approaches infinity of P(F)n

23 23 23 23 23
∴ P(Free Bet Bonus Forever) = 132
× 132
× 132
× 132
… ∴ lim ( 132 )n = 0
n→∞
Table 3: The values derived from the calculations that will be used for analysis.

X 0 0.50 Jackpot: €500,000

P (X=x) 0.683 0.347 0.0000000152

These values were confirmed to be accurate by adding them and getting a result of 1.

The expected value formula was then used to calculate the expected value for the Chinese Welfare Lottery, found in Table

4 below.

Table 4: Summary: the probability of winning the jackpot, the probability of not winning the jackpot and the expected

value of the various lottery games.

Jackpot Amount Probability of Probability of Probability of Expected Value

Lottery Game (€) winning the winning the not winning the (in respective
jackpot (fraction) jackpot (decimal) jackpot currency)

South African 341,714 1 0.0000000491 0.9999999509 1.69

20,358,520
National Lotto

Chinese Welfare 500,000 1 0.0000000126 0.9999999874 0.181

79,453,500
Lottery

Portuguese 7,190,100 1 0.0000000403 0.9999999597 0.339

24,789,492
Totoloto

Euromillions 54,149,066 1 0.00000000715 0.9999999928 0.972

139,838,160

Powerball 130,760,715 1 0.00000000342 0.9999999966 0.388

292,201,338
Canada

Australian Oz 811,582 1 0.0000000220 0.999999978 0.304

45,379,620
Lotto

New York State 6,147,986 1 0.0000000222 0.9999999778 0.216

45,057,474
Lotto

Wisconsin state 31,809,420 1 0.00000000330 0.9999999967 0.300

302,575,350
Mega Millions
lottery
Data Analysis:

Standardising the expected value for analysis

The previously calculated expected value assumes that the ticket is free, since the value used for calculating when losing

is zero. Therefore, in order to analyse the players losses when playing the game this value is standardised.

This is done by calculating E(X) as a percentage of the wager. Using the calculation: E(X)/Cost x 100.

Table 5: The expected values and cost per ticket for each lottery

Lottery Game Expected Value Expected Value Cost per ticket (€) Standardised expected
(in respective currency) (€) value

South African 1.69 0.096 0,29 33.1%

National Lotto

Chinese Welfare 0.181 0.181 0,50 36.2%

Lottery

Portuguese Totoloto 0.339 0.339 0,90 37.7%

Euromillions 0.972 0.339 2,50 13.6%

Powerball Canada 0.388 0.340 1,73 19.7%

Australian Oz Lotto 0.304 0.190 0,70 27.1%

New York State 0.216 0.190 0,87 21.8%

Lotto

Wisconsin state 0.300 0.260 1,73 15.0%

Mega Millions
lottery
Data Interpretation: Discussion of Results

Through this exploration, the probabilities of various elements of lotteries were calculated in order to allow for analysis of

which is the most worth it to play. Through simple probability and the use of nCr, the probabilities of winning the

Jackpots were calculated. These values were then subtracted by 1 in order to calculate the probability of not doing so.

Furthermore, the expected values of the lotteries were calculated using the formula 𝐸(𝑥) = Σ𝑥𝑖𝑃𝑖. This value was

ultimately analysed in respect to the cost of the ticket to allow for a deep analysis of all lotteries producing a standardised

expected value.

From the results in table 5, it can be concluded that the smaller lotteries are more beneficial to the consumer, as the lower

the standardised expected value is, the less fair the game is.. The highest percentage of standardised expected value was

from the Portuguese Totoloto, then the Chinese Welfare Lottery, the South African National Lotto, the Australian Oz

Lotto, the New York State Lotto, the Canadian Powerball and finally the Wisconsin State Mega Millions Lottery.

The table below, table 6, summarises and ranks the various lotteries according to the jackpot probability, the jackpot value

and the standardised expected value. This was done in order to visualise the results, and analyse the lotteries qualitatively,

although analysed quantitatively.

Table 6: Ranking the lotteries by the Jackpot probabilities, jackpot values and the standardised expected value to

determine a potential relationship.

Jackpot probability Jackpot value Standardised E(X)

(Highest to lowest) (Highest to lowest) (Highest to lowest)

1 South African National Lotto Power ball canada Portuguese Totoloto

2 Portuguese Totoloto Euromillions Chinese Welfare Lottery

3 New York State Lotto Wisconsin state Mega Millions South African National Lotto

4 Australian Oz Lotto Portuguese Totoloto Australian Oz Lotto

5 Chinese Welfare Lottery New York State Lotto New York State Lotto

6 Euromillions Australian Oz Lotto Powerball Canada

7 Powerball Canada Chinese Welfare Lottery Wisconsin state Mega Millions

8 Wisconsin state Mega Millions South African National Lotto Euromillions

When looking at the various probabilities and the jackpots from the highest to lowest in table 6, a clear relationship

cannot be determined. A weak inverse relationship can be seen, as the highest probability and the lowest jackpot value

pertains to the South African National Lotto. The canadian powerball also sees a big switch in the ranking, being 7th in

Jackpot probability but having the highest jackpot value. The lowest jackpot probability resides in the Wisconsin state

Mega Millions lottery, which has the 3rd highest jackpot value. Amongst the other lotteries in table 6, a relationship is not

noticeable between the jackpot probability and jackpot value.

There is however a stronger direct relationship between the probabilities and the standardised expected value of the

lotteries, as most remain within 1-3 spaces within the respective rankings. The Portuguese Totoloto lottery was found to

have the lowest burden to the consumers when considering the cost and the average value expected to be won when

playing. This can be considered to be in relation to its probability of winning the Jackpot of € 7,190,100 (Nov. 2021),

which was found to be 0.0000000403.

The South African National Lotto also remains within the top 3 of Jackpot Probability and Standardised E(X) with a

Jackpot of €341,714, and the lowest cost of € 0,29, as well as the highest probability of 0.0000000491.

The most cost intensive lottery for the consumer is the Euromillions lottery. The cost to play is € 2,50 and ranks place 6

from 8 on probability of winning the jackpot. Therefore however has a jackpot of € 54,149,066- second highest of all

lotteries analysed in this exploration. This lottery has the lowest standardised expected value and is therefore the least

worth it to play.

The Australian “oz lotto’, the Wisconsin state Mega Millions and the Canadian Powerball also stand out as they shift

solely one rank upwards, if at all, in the standardised E(x) from the jackpot probability. Meaning for their probability in

relation to the expected value and cost result in them ranking as one of the better lotteries to take part in.
Analysing various Elements of the Lottery

I. How many times does each lottery have to be played in order to have a 50% chance of winning the Jackpot at

least once?

After finding the probabilities and expected values of the various lotteries, another aspect was analysed: How many times

one would have to play the various lotteries until one has a 50% chance of winning the Jackpot at least once.

In order to analyse this concept, the equation: P(x≥1) > 50% was used:

First it was rearranged,

P (x ≥ 1) > 50%

1 - P (x = 0) > 50%

0.5 > P (x = 0)

∴ P (x = 0) < 0.5

This was then applied to the probabilities of winning the Jackpots of the various lotteries:

Sample Calculation: (South African National Lotto)

52𝐶6−1
( 52𝐶6 )n < 0.5

52𝐶6−1
n Log ( 52𝐶6 ) = Log 0.5

52𝐶6−1
n = (Log 0.5) / (Log ( 52𝐶6 ) )

n = 14111452

Meaning one would have to play the South African National Lotto 14111452 times until one has a 50% chance of winning

the Jackpot at least once.

This also has to be considered with the price it costs to play the lottery. Considering the cost of the South African National

Lotto is €0,29, and one has to play 14111452 times, one is expected to pay € 4,092,321 before having a 50% chance of

winning the Jackpot of € 341,714.

This was calculated for all various lotteries as can be seen in Table 7:
Table 7: The amount of times the various lotteries have to be played in order to have a 50% chance of winning the Jackpot

at least once (n) compared to cost and Jackpot.

Cost for a 50% chance =

Lottery Game Jackpot Amount (€) Calculated n value (Cost × n) (€)

South African National Lotto 341,714 14,111,452 4,092,321

Chinese Welfare Lottery 500,000 55,072,960 27,536,480

Portuguese Totoloto 7,190,100 17,182,767 15,464,491

Euromillions 54,149,066 96,928,478 242,321,195

Powerball Canada 130,760,715 202,538,404 350,391,439

Australian Oz Lotto 811,582 31,454,761 22,018,333

New York State Lotto 6,147,986 31,231,455 27,171,366

Wisconsin state Mega Millions 31,809,420 209,729,370 362,831,810

lottery

According to the results in table 7, all lotteries have to be played at least 14 thousand times, and up to almost 210

thousand times in order to have a mere 50% chance of winning the jackpot at least once.

In relation to the price of the various lotteries and the Jackpot amount, one is expected to pay almost over double the

amount one would win from the Jackpot in order to have a 50% chance in all lotteries.

This makes it apparent that partaking in the lottery is not very beneficial to the consumers.

II. Small lottery vs. big lottery

In this exploration, many different lotteries were analysed, of different sizes and popularities.

The Euromillions is played across nine different european countries10: Ireland, Austria, Belgium, France, Luxembourg,

Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, with an estimated 80-100 million players each week12.

The South African National Lotto can only be played by proof of a citizenship, or proof of a south african bank account.

Thus, allowing only south africans to take part. Although South Africa as a country is almost 5 times the size of the UK,

1.2 million km2, the number of players in the national lotto is significantly lower than that of the Euromillions

(pre-covid).

When looking at the probabilities of the two games, the probability of winning the Jackpot in the Euromillions is far

smaller, a bit over a factor of 6, than the South African National Lotto. However, the jackpot sizes are also significantly
different, the Euromillions having around 1500 times the prize than the South African National Lotto. Analysing the

standardised expected value though, the South African National Lotto proves itself to be more worth it .

The Jackpot values and costs to play can also be analysed in terms of the GDP of the region using data from the

WorldBank.

The GDP of South Africa (2020) is € 263,683 million, and the GDP per capita (2020) is €4,448.

The countries taking part in the Euromillions are amongst the countries with the highest GDP’s in the world. Focusing on

one of them, in order to compare, the GDP of the United Kingdom (2020) is € 2,364,686 million and the GDP per capita

(2020) of the United Kingdom is €35,187.

The difference in the cost to play, the Euromillions demanding €2,21 more per ticket, as well as the significant difference

in the Jackpot value can be linked to the GDP of the regions and their accessibility and the disposability of incomes.

When comparing the ratio of the jackpot divided by the GDP per Capita of the regions:

The South African National Lotto has a Jackpot of € 341,714 (Nov. 2021), dividing this by the GDP per Capita of South

Africa a value of 76.8 is calculated. This means the Jackpot is up to 77 times the average income per person in South

Africa.

The Euromillions lottery has a jackpot prize of € 54,149,066 (Nov. 2021), when dividing this by the GDP per Capita of

the United Kingdom, a value of 1538.8 is found. Meaning the Jackpot is 1539 times the average income in the United

Kingdom. This value is exceedingly higher than that from the South African National Lotto, yet the Euromillions is

played by nine various countries rather than 1. Dividing this value by 9 in order to contract it to one country as an

average, the value found is 170.9, although more closely related to the South African National Lotto, it remains far higher.

III. Purpose behind bonus numbers

One key aspect also stood out throughout the exploration: the bonus numbers offered by some lotteries, such as in the

Euromillions. As seen in table 1, when playing the Euromillions, one chooses 5 numbers between 1 and 50, and two

“lucky stars” between 1 and 12.

Using nCr, this concept was analysed in order to answer the question as to why lotteries have this and how it affects the

probability of winning the jackpot.

First nCr of 5 numbers between 1 and 50 was calculated: 𝑛𝐶𝑟= 50𝐶5 = 2118760

Then nCr of 7 numbers between 1 and 52 was calculated: 52𝐶7 = 133,784,560

As it includes the two lucky stars within the other numbers.

This was compared with the previously calculated nCr, found in table 4 illustrating the probability of winning the jackpot

as is, when choosing 5 numbers between 1 and 50, and two “lucky stars” between 1 and 12; 50𝐶5 × 12𝐶2 =

139, 838, 160

The results are categorised in the table below.

Table 7: Analysing the purpose of bonus numbers.

Probability of winning the Probability of winning the Probability of winning the

jackpot without “lucky jackpot when “lucky stars” are Jackpot if the two “lucky stars''
stars” chosen separately. would simply be added to the
other numbers.

Calculation 𝑛𝐶𝑟= 50𝐶5 = 2,118,760 50𝐶5 × 12𝐶2 = 139, 838, 160 52𝐶7 = 133,784,560

Probability (1/nCr) 1 1 1
2,118,760 139,838,160 133,784,560

From table 7, it can be concluded that addition of two supplementary numbers decreases the probability of winning the

jackpot tremendously. Adding “lucky stars” to the Lottery decreases the probability by a factor of 66. Calculated by:

1 1
P(no lucky stars)/P(lucky stars)= 2,118,760
/ 139,838,160

There is also quite a difference between the probability of adding the “lucky stars” to the other numbers 52𝐶7 rather than

having the “lucky stars” be chosen separately:

1 1
By doing P(lucky stars placed within other numbers)/P(lucky stars chosen separately)= 133,784,560
/ 139,838,160

This changes the probability of winning the Jackpot by a factor of 1.

Therefore, it is evident that the purpose of the bonus numbers is to decrease the probability of winning the lottery

exceedingly. From the Lotteries chosen in this investigation, this tool is used in those where the prize money exceeds 6

million Euros, and the Chinese Welfare Lottery which has a Jackpot of €500,000.
V. Purpose of the complexity of the Chinese Welfare Lottery

As discussed previously, in the expected value section (III) of the exploration, the Chinese Welfare Lottery has a complex

system of expected values and outcomes.

The lottery creates a geometric sequence with a sum to infinity, where the player can continuously win free bets, or win

their money back.

According to Brtitannica, the term welfare or a social welfare program is defined as “a type of government support

intended to ensure that members of a society can meet basic human needs such as food and shelter. ” The Chinese Welfare

Lottery is a “state-run lottery provider that distributes the money raised from ticket sales to a variety of good causes.”2

The funds generated through the lottery are said to be distributed to those in need, such as the “elderly, disabled, poor and

the vulnerable.” In the first 30 years, over 1.6 trillion yuan, €201,389,220,000 were spent on the lottery, “generating over

500 billion yuan [€64,193,489,178] for public welfare funds”. With which thousands of “welfare and charitable projects”

were supported and over “400,000 jobs were created.”

It’s chartiabilty, rather than benefits solely to the government or the consumer, may prove the reason for the complexity of

the lottery’s probabilities. The little variety in prizes may also be a result of this, as it is either €0.50, €0.50 + a free bet, a

free bet, or the Jackpot of €500,000. The €0.50 prizes may increase demand and encourage continuous consumption of

lottery tickets as the players win their money back, which can be used to play again: similar to the concept of the free bet

bonus. The probability of winning nothing in the Chinese Welfare Lottery is slimmer than winning at least €0.50 or a free

bet bonus.
Conclusion

This exploration used various probability related mathematical tools and formulas to analyse various lotteries from around

the world: the South African National Lotto, China’s Welfare lottery, the Portuguese Totoloto, the Euromillions, the

Canadian Powerball, Australia’s “Oz Lotto”, the New York State Lotto and finally the Wisconsin state Mega Millions

lottery. The purpose and techniques of the lottery were analysed and different strategies were found.

Through the calculations, specifically those illustrated in table 6, it was found that the South African National Lotto

would be the most “worth it to play”.

The research conducted found that the probability of winning lotteries is not random, nor does it occur by chance, and that

most games are altered so the consumer does not win, and rather, the government benefits from the game. This was also

found through the analysis of how many times the various lotteries have to be played until the consumer would have a

50% chance to win the Jackpot at least once. Which found that the cost of reaching that value was far higher than the

Jackpot prize one would then win.

Additionally to this, a relationship between the GDP’s of the various regions and the statistics of the lottery games was

found which further investigated the concepts and setup of the Lottery.

The odd one out of this exploration was the Chinese Welfare Lottery whose probability creates a geometric series with a

sum to infinity, and its unique prizes as it serves directly to aid the population in need, rather than the government or

consumers. The concept of giving a free bet is also the case in some other lotteries around the world, yet is quite rare.

This is what results in this geometric series, as winning the free bet can be done over and over again, everytime one plays.

Reflection of Investigation

Overall the Investigation into the statistics of the various lotteries including probabilities, expected values, etc. was

successful. A lot of data was found and calculated, and methods and tools of the lottery were discovered. Strengths of the

investigation include the various approaches used to analyse and answer the research question, additionally to the use of

lotteries from many regions in the world, constituting various GDPs and populations allowing for a deep comparison and

analysis. Additionally to this, examining the methods and tools discovered through the research and calculations, in the

‘Data Interpretation’ section of the exploration allowed for curiosity based research and investigation: which lead to a

better understanding of the lottery. The most challenging section was analysing the Chinese Welfare Lottery but many

approaches were attempted and acceptable values were found as a result.

Further extensions of the investigation could focus on the n value calculated, looking into how many times the various

lotteries have to be played until one has a 25%, 50%, 75%, etc. chance of winning and analysing at which value it is the

most beneficial to the consumer in relation to the cost and the Jackpot amount.
Bibliography

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