TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION .....................................................................................................................................

DEDICATION .....................................................................................................................................vi

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...............................................................................................................

LIST OF APPENDICES............................xiii ACRONYMS ..............................................................

.......................................................................xiv CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem...................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Aim ....................................................................................................................................... 3
1.4 Specific Objectives ............................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Research Questions ............................................................................................................... 3
1.6 Significance of the Study ...................................................................................................... 4
1.7 Organization of the Report ................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................. 5

2.1 Climate Change and Food Security: Conceptualizing the Linkages .................................... 5
2.2 The Politics of Climate Change ............................................................................................ 6
2.3 The Evolution of the Concept of Food Security ................................................................... 6
2.4 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: Global Perspective ................................. 8
2.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security in Africa ............................ 9
2.6 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Sub- Saharan Africa ..........................11
2.7 Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Zambia ...................................13

viii
 2.8 Household Food Security ...................................................................................................15
2.8.1 Food Availability .............................................................................................................16
2.8.2 Food Access .....................................................................................................................16
2.8.3 Food utilization ................................................................................................................16
2.9 Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security in Kazungula ....17

CHAPTER 3

DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA ................................................................................ 20

3.1 Location ..............................................................................................................................20
3.2 Population Size ...................................................................................................................20
3.3 Climate................................................................................................................................21
3.4 Soils ....................................................................................................................................21
3.5 Vegetation ...........................................................................................................................22

CHAPTER 4

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY............................................................................................... 23
4.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................23
4.2 Data Collection ...................................................................................................................23
4.2.1 Primary Sources of Data ..................................................................................................23
4.2.2 Secondary Sources of Data ..............................................................................................24
4.3 Sampling design..................................................................................................................24
4.4 Data Analysis ......................................................................................................................27
4.5 Limitations of the Study .....................................................................................................27

CHAPTER 5

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................................. 28

5.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................28
5.2 Population Characteristics ..................................................................................................28
5.3 Nature of Climate Change and Climate Variability ...........................................................31
5.4 Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agricultural Production..............34
5.5 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Household Food Security ........................37
5.5.1 Access to Food by Households ........................................................................................37
5.5.3 Food Nutrition: Prevalence of Oedema in Under- Five Children....................................40

ix
CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................... 44

6.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................44
6.2 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................44
6.3 Recommendations...............................................................................................................45
6.4 Future Research ..................................................................................................................46

REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 47

APPENDICES .................................................................................................................................... 55

x
 CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

The earth’s climate system has changed from the pre-industrial era to the present both globally
and regionally due to natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities (Topcu et al., 2010).
Increased atmospheric concentrations of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) such as Carbon dioxide
(CO2) and Methane (CH4) have altered the climate system which has resulted in greenhouse
effect and global warming (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (2010). Climate
change may be due to internal or external natural processes, or persistent anthropogenic changes
in the composition of the atmosphere or inland use (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
(IPCC) ( 2014). According to the IPCC, climate change is defined as alterations in the state of the
climate that can be identified by using statistical tests or changes in the mean and/or the
variability of its properties and which persists for decades or longer (IPCC, 2014).

Climate change is possibly the most significant environmental challenge of our time and poses
serious threats to the sustainable development of the emerging economies in developing countries
(Christopher et al., 2013). According to the IPCC (2007), global climate change will impact on
food and water security in a significant but highly uncertain manner in the coming years. There is
overwhelming evidence that Sub-Saharan Africa like other regions in Africa will bear the
consequences of climate change (Sofie, 2012). The 2016 Zambia National Climate Change
Policy notes that countries like South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Mozambique and
Angola experienced a 0.6°C to 1°C increase in temperature resulting into increased occurrence of
droughts, floods and epidemics (Ministry of National Development Planning, 2016). The 2000
flood in Mozambique affected 2 million people, caused 500 deaths, displaced 329,000 people,
while 1 million people were affected by food insecurity. Furthermore, the country recorded a
reduced annual economic growth rate from 10 percent to 4 percent and crop destruction. The
frequent occurrence of floods in Swaziland in 1984 caused widespread crop destruction, water
contamination as well as property and infrastructure destruction (Mudenda, 2010). Similarly, the
challenges for climate change in Zambia are substantial, due to its high dependence on climate
sensitive natural resource sectors for food security, livelihoods and incomes.

In the coming years, climate change is likely to be one of the major causes for low food

1
production due to crop failure, collapse of fisheries and livestock deaths. These impacts are
already causing economic problems and undermining food security and these are likely to
become more severe (IFPRI, 2011 and Ahmed et al., 2009). Some of the climate change induced
hazards affecting the rural communities include droughts, floods, epidemics, pests and
environmental degradation (Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee, (ZVAC) (2005).

Most of the low-lying districts in Southern Province like Siavonga, Gwembe and Kazungula
which are located in the valley areas are negatively impacted by climate change resulting into
food insecurity due to the sensitivity of crops to timing, amount, and intensity of rainfall and
temperature fluctuations (IPCC, 2007). In this regard, agricultural production in Kazungula
district will have multiple impacts on other sectors of the economy such as health because
sufficient nutrition determines productivity and agriculture failure results into food insecurity.
The means and capacity to adapt to changes in climate are scarce due to low levels of human and
economic development as well as high rates of poverty. These conditions combine to create a
state of high vulnerability to climate change in Kazungula district.

Climate change and climate variability is projected to limit the potential for growth in the
agriculture sector in Kazungula district. Low productivity and high levels of poverty, poor soils,
poor market systems and unstable prices coupled with the effects of climate change will
adversely affect household food security and rural livelihoods on which the majority of the
people depend on for income generation (European Commission, 2011). Livestock will also be
affected by drought and floods and will result into livestock deaths because droughts will affect
vegetation growth. Therefore, this study seeks to establish the nature and typology of climate
change induced hazards affecting agricultural production and food security as well as coping
strategies for the people at household level in Kazungula district of Zambia.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Climate change is a major problem for agriculture and household food security in Kazungula
district. Due to climate change and climate variability, Kazungula has had consistent droughts
and floods resulting into low crop yields and food insecurity. Annual average temperature has
increased by 1.3°C and average annual rainfall has decreased by 1.9 mm since 1960. This has
affected agricultural production and food security in Kazungula. Post harvest losses account for

2
30 percent and acute food insecurity levels stand at 76 percent (Thurlow et al., 2009).

Coping strategies to climate change remains a critical and significant goal to reverse the impacts
of climate change on agriculture and household food security. However, the ability to cope with
climate change induced hazards at household level are very low due to high poverty levels, low
literacy levels and labor migration to the urban areas. However, most of the literature
highlighting the impacts of climate change in Zambia have mainly focused on agriculture and
food production at national level. Jain (2007), using the Ricardian model assessed the economic
impacts of mean surface temperature increases and mean seasonal rainfall decrease on farming
activities in Zambia. The study focused mainly on Zambia in general and on crop production but
never looked at the four pillars of food security (access, availability, utilization and stability).
Jemma et al. (2010), looked at the impacts of climate variability on agriculture but never gave a
detailed analysis on climate change and food security. Vermenlon et al. (2010), gives a
qualitative assessment of impacts of climate change on all sectors of the economy but negates the
food security issue and coping strategies of rural households to impacts of climate change.

1.3 Aim

The aim of the study was to assess the impacts of climate change and climate variability on
agriculture and household food security as well as the coping strategies of the people in
Kazungula district.

1.4 Specific Objectives

The specific objectives of the study were:

i. To examine the nature of climate induced hazards affecting agriculture and household
food security in Kazungula district.
ii. To evaluate the impacts of climate change and climate variability on agriculture and
household food security in Kazungula district.
iii. To assess the coping strategies of households towards adverse impacts of climate
change and climate variability in Kazungula district.

1.5 Research Questions

The study attempted to answer the following questions with specific reference to the objectives
outlined above:

3
 CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Climate Change and Food Security: Conceptualizing the Linkages

It is imperative to note that climate change is multifaceted and has been defined in different ways
by different authors. For instance, the United Nations Framework on Climate Change
Convention (UNFCCC) defines climate change as the change that can be attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over a comparable time period (UNFCCC, 1992).
On the other hand, the IPCC defines climate change as a change in the state of the climate that
can be identified by changes in the mean and or the variability of its properties and that persists
for an extended period, typically periods or longer (IPCC, 2014). From these two definitions
climate change can be defined as the change in the key properties or dimensions of the climate
including the elements of weather such as average temperature, wind and rainfall over a longer
period of time.

According to Kurukulasuriya et al. (2006), the main drivers of climate change are fossil fuel
burning, deforestation and other human practices that increase the concentrations of GHGs in the
atmosphere. The two main sources of these greenhouse emissions are from burning fossil fuels
(oil, coal, and natural gas) and agricultural as well as other land use changes especially
deforestation (Seventh African Development Forum, (SADF) (2010). The study by SADF
(2010), contends that in Africa, agriculture is the major contributor of greenhouse emissions (34
percent) compared to other sectors such as manufacturing (10 percent) and other industrial
processes (3 percent). Therefore, agriculture is both the contributor and victim of climate change
effects (SADF, 2014). According to the IPCC (2014), the impacts of climate change varies from
region to region depending on the mitigation measures and the ability to adapt. The impact of
global warming has significant consequences for agricultural production and trade of developing
countries as well as an increased risk of hunger.

Due to impacts of climate change, the total agricultural production could decline by 50 percent
(Funk, 2005). Further, recurrent droughts and floods are becoming common in different
continents with Africa been the most affected. Furthermore, climate change has a negative
bearing on the four pillars of food security which are access, availability, utilization and stability.

5
production which will in turn compromise household food security. The supply of meat and other
livestock products will be influenced by crop production trends, as feed crops account for
roughly 25 percent of the world’s cropland (Eugene, 2013).

2.4 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: Global Perspective

Climate change, agriculture and food security has become a major subject of global concern
because impacts of climate change cut across the globe irrespective of boundaries. Climate
change has emerged over the last 25 years not just as a physical reality, affecting global and
regional climates, but also as a socio-cultural phenomenon, an icon of a globalizing world which
is increasingly altering the physical fabric of the planet and at the same time demanding new
forms of global governance (Hulme and Turnpenny 2004). However, the increased frequency of
extreme and unpredictable weather events, in a manner consistent with the changes predicted by
global climate models is expected to exacerbate the global food challenge as the world moves
toward the middle of the 21st century (Eugene, 2013). Mudenda et al. (2009), notes that climate
change is likely to impact on agriculture and food security across the globe. Any impacts on
agriculture will have multiple effects on agriculture dependent livelihoods and household food
security.

The concept of food security goes far beyond production and encompasses issues relating to
availability of food, distribution, access, utilization and exchange aspects. Food security is
dependent on availability of food, access to food, utilization to food and stability. Edame argues
that climate change will affect the four key dimensions of food security and these are availability,
stability, access and utilization (Edame, 2013). The United Kingdom (UK) experienced the
adverse effects of climate change during the 1995 drought and the autumn flooding in 2000
which affected agricultural productivity and household food security (Hulme and Turnpenny,
2004). It was at that time that climate change related issues attracted the attention of society and
political leaders in the UK which culminated into the publication of the first Comprehensive
Climate Change Programme identifying climate change related risks as well as policy measures
and initiatives which would help in managing climate change risks. The comparable figures for
Southern Asia, the region with the second highest undernourishment rates, were 24 percent and
21 percent respectively. Moreover, the latest figures for fragile countries show a rate of
undernourishment of 31.4 percent compared to 14.5 percent for non-fragile countries due to low

8
 CHAPTER 4

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4.1 Introduction

This research utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection. This research
utilized the quantitative approach by developing structured questionnaires, observations and
collection of historical data. Qualitative methods were employed to collect data from Focus
Group Discussions.

4.2 Data Collection

In order to determine and analyze the impacts of climate change on agriculture and household
food security, primary data was collected through a survey of farmers in Kazungula district of
Southern Province. The data was collected using three sets of questionnaires and these were
administered to individual respondents (household questionnaires), key informants at the district
level (district questionnaire), key institutions and informants at community level (community
questionnaires for focus group discussions).

A quantitative assessment of climatic effects was based on agricultural production which was
partially determined by crop yields over a period of time. This research therefore, analyzed both
temperature and precipitation as key variables of climate change and variability in determining
agriculture production and food security. Historical agricultural data and climate data was
collected from the Ministry of Agriculture, Zambia Meteorological Department and Regional
Climate Models (RCMs) using the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX) from the Swedish Hydrological and Meteorological Services respectively. Food
security was determined by the data that was generated through the field survey in Kazungula
district.

4.2.1 Primary Sources of Data

Primary data was obtained through engagements with individuals from institutions that directly
interface with climate change related issues in the country and was purposively selected using
non- probability sampling techniques. This data was collected through administering of
structured questionnaires at household level, interviews with district officials and traditional

23
leaders as well as Focus Group Discussions with members of the community. The household
questionnaire was administered to the communities at household level (Appendix I), community
questionnaire was administered to four communities through Focus Group discussions (Appendix
II) and the key informant questionnaire was administered to the District Administration and other
key informants who deal with climate change related activities in Zambia at different levels
(Appendix III).

4.2.2 Secondary Sources of Data

Secondary sources of data were obtained from published sources (journals, articles and edited
books). Furthermore, the research involved visiting key institutions both government and Non-
Governmental Organizations to collect data on climate change and agriculture statistics. This data
was vital in filling the gaps from field responses. Visited institutions included Ministry of Lands,
Environment and Natural Resources Management, Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience,
Zambia Meteorological Department, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Services,
Ministry of Agriculture and World Food Programme.

4.3 Sampling design

Sample designs may be categorized into two different categories that are probability sampling
and non- probability sampling in order to have a representative sample. Probability sampling
which is also known as random sampling ensures that elements in the population have equal
chance of being selected. Under non- probability sampling the elements of the population are
deliberately chosen by the researcher. This research used non- probability sampling in selecting
the wards to be visited, institutions and focus group discussions because the universe was too
small. The research further used simple random probability sampling to select households that
were interviewed to ensure that the elements in the population had equal chance of been selected
to keep the sampling error low.

According to CSO (2010), Kazungula district has 11 wards with a total number of 10,132
households. A register of famers with a total of 656 households was obtained from the District
Agricultural Office from which the sample was drawn. This research used Krejcie and Morgan
Sampling Method to obtain the sample size in order to avoid biasness (Bryman, 2008). The
sampling of households was carried out using the sampling frame from Central Statistical Office

24
 662 +3 +3 = 668
662 + 3+ 3+3 = 671

To achieve this, a quick count was undertaken in four Supervisory Enumeration Areas (SEAs)
and all the households were listed using a listing form.

4.4 Data Analysis

After the completion of data collection exercise, the data was edited or cleaned, coded and
entered into Census and Survey Processing System (CSPro). After the data was entered into
CSPro, data analysis was undertaken using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and
excel. The study examined the nature and typology of climate change induce hazards affecting
agricultural production in Kazungula district. This was undertaken by analyzing people's
perception on the types of hazards affecting them. The study, further examined historical data
from the Zambia Meteorological Department and the Regional Climate Model data from
CORDEX to validate the people's perception. The study also analyzed the impact of climate
change and climate variability on agricultural production and the adaptive capacity of rural
households to cope with the adverse effects of climate change and climate variability. Further, the
study also analyzed the impacts of climate change on the four pillars of food security (access,
utilization, availability and food stability) as well as nutritional security. For nutritional security,
the study analyzed the nutritional status of the under five children as a proxy for measuring food
utilization.

4.5 Limitations of the Study

The major limitation to this study was inadequate meteorological data (both current and
projected) at local scale on impacts of climate change in Zambia both on crop yields and on
poverty levels at a level that is useful to both policy makers and researchers. Most of the datasets
were at global and regional level rather than community level; hence lack of local meteorological
and agricultural datasets was a big challenge. Kazungula district does not have a meteorological
station hence the meteorological data that was used in this research was interpolated from
Livingstone weather station.

27
 CHAPTER 5

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

5.1 Introduction

This chapter, in view of the above, presents the results of the survey on the impacts of climate
change and climate variability on agricultural production and household food security in
Kazungula district of Southern Province. This chapter, further discusses the population
characteristics of the respondents, nature of climate change affecting households and impacts of
climate change on agriculture and household food security as well as the coping strategies being
employed by the people.

5.2 Population Characteristics

The research showed that most of the households interviewed were male headed (77 percent)
while 23 percent were female headed households. The research further showed that (Figure 3)
most of the households are headed by different age groups with the majority of the households
(35 percent) being headed by people aged between 35- 44 years followed by people aged
between 25- 34 years (24 percent) 45- 64 years (16 percent) while 14 percent were headed by the
elderly aged above 65 years (Figure 3). This shows that both male and female headed households
were exposed to the adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability. However, the
impacts of climate change will be severely felt by women than male headed households as well
as child and elderly headed households due to low coping capacity. These are the age groups that
will most likely be affected by food insecurity.

28
5.3 Nature of Climate Change and Climate Variability

The research showed that most of the households interviewed were of the view that the local
climate has changed over the last 30 years, for instance 58 percent of the households interviewed
indicated that they were experiencing climate change and climate variability while 42 percent
were of the view that the district was not experiencing climate change and climate variability
(Figure 6). According to Figure 6, majority of the households (58 percent) were experiencing
increased occurrence of floods, followed by rainfall and lastly increased temperatures.

Data from the Zambia Meteorological Station for Kazungula (Figures 7 and 8) shows that that
temperature has increased by 2°C while rainfall has varied in the last 35 years and reduced by
26.5 percent (1963- 2010) which is slightly higher than the global average temperature of 1.5°C
(IPCC: 2007). This may be attributed to the different models that were used, tropical biases and
noise in the data (Jochem, 2017 and Dali et al., 2011). The research findings further showed that
agricultural production has been adversely affected by both climate change and climate
variability due to fluctuating and unstable rain seasons as well as unpredictable weather patterns.

Households not affected by climate change

Households affected by climate change

42%

58%

Figure 6: Perceptions on Climate Change and Climate Variability

Source: Field data, 2016

According to the climate data obtained from the Zambia Meteorological Station, temperature has
increased by 2°C while rainfall has continued to vary over a long period of time in Kazungula

31
Figure 11:: Crop Condition under Flood Water

Source: Field data, 2016

The research findings showed that the impacts of climate change were more severe from floods
(22 percent) followed by droughts (17 percent), however, 15 percent of the households indicated
that they were moderately impacted by both floods and droughts
droughts, respectively. These results
clearly show that the major climate induced hazards that were impacting agricultural production
and household food security were floods and droughts
dr (Figure 12).

Floods Droughts
25

20
Severity of Impacts

15

10

0
Severe Impact Moderate Impact Low Impact

Figure 12:: The Severity of the Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability

Source: Field data, 2016

36
5.5 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Household Food Security

5.5.1 Access to Food by Households

Using the Food consumption score as a proxy for access to food and dietary needs, the study
showed that only 43 percent of the population were better-off and had access to quality food, 33
percent were on borderline while the rest of the households had poor or no access to quality food
to meet their daily dietary needs (Figure 13). In other words, 47 percent of the households had
poor access to food. Poor access to food may be attributed to high food prices, poor
transportation network in the rural areas, lack of markets and inadequate incomes as evident in
ZVAC Reports (ZVAC, 2008).

50
Food Access by Percentage (%)

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Poor Borderline Better- Off

Figure 13: Food Access and Household Dietary Needs

Source: Field data, 2016

The research findings showed that food security was impacted by climate change and climate
variability over a period of time (Table 2). The research findings in Table 2 further showed that
majority of the households were marginally food insecure (29 percent) and severely food
insecure (35 percent). The findings in Table 2 is a summary of a composite of food insecurity
indicators which includes a combination of food consumption score, asset wealthy index, food
expenditure share and capacity to cope with adverse impacts of climate change and climate
variability shows that majority of the people were food insecure (64 percent).

37
Table 2: Composite of Food Security Indicators

Food Security Indicators Food Secure Moderately Marginally Food Severely Food
Secure Insecure Insecure
Food Consumption Score 27% 0 30% 43%
Asset Wealthy Index 19% 0 42% 39%
Food Expenditure Share 19% 17% 19% 45%
Coping Strategies 42% 21% 25% 13%
Average Food Security Indicator 27% 0.095% 29% 35%

Source: Field data, 2016

The Figure 14 shows that the three main sources of income were crop production, gardening and
casual labor translating into 56 percent of the population engaged in crop production, gardening
and labor sharing 13 percent, respectively.

50
Income Contribution by Percentage (%)

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Figure 14: Main Sources of Income

Source: Field data, 2016

38
5.5.2 Food Availability

The research findings in Figure 15 showed that 91 percent of the households had very low food
stocks because they produced below 100 by 50 Kg bags of maize while 5 percent of the
households had moderate stocks of maize translating into 100 to 200 by 50 Kg bags of maize
compared to the marginally food secure (2 percent) and the food secure (2 percent). Though food
was readily available on the market from other surplus districts, it was quite expensive because
people were unable to purchase the food stocks due to high prices and high poverty levels at
household level. Food can be said to be available when it is affordable at all times by all people
but only the better-off had capacity to purchase food. Inadequate food supply affects food
nutrition resulting into increased stunting and underweight cases.

100
90
80
70
Food Stocks

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Severely Food Moderately Food Marginaly Food Food Secure
Insecure Secure Secure

Figure 15: Food Stocks Availability or Production

Source: Field data, 2016

The research findings showed that in terms of food utilization and dietary food diversity which is
part of an indicator for measuring household food security, 96 percent of the households did not
consume leguminous foods compared to 9 percent who indicated consuming leguminous food
groups 24 hours before the field survey (Figure 16). Further, Figure 16 below reveals that
majority of the people consumed cereal food groups (27 percent), vegetables (4 percent), Sugar
(7 percent), meat (27 percent) oil foods (72 percent) and fish food groups (5 percent) and most of
these foods were from purchases from other districts like Lusaka, Choma, Sesheke, Chipata and
Ndola. The main factors affecting food availability are low production levels at household level,

39
Majority of the households (84 percent) indicated that they had no carryover stocks resulting into
food instability. In other words, about 15 percent of the households were likely to purchase less
food because they have stable food stocks. However, most of the people were likely to have
challenges to purchase food stocks because there main source of income which is crop production
was low. Further, food instability is as a result of low agricultural production due to poor rainfall.

Less carry over stocks Same stocks as last year

More stocks No carry over stocks

15%
23%

23%

39%

Figure 17: Impacts of Climate Change on Food Stability

Source: Field data, 2016

The findings in Figure 18 shows that though households started running out of food as early as
May (3 percent) majority of the households run out of food stocks by November (20 percent),
February (15 percent) and March (15 percent). The research revealed that in terms of the impacts
of climate change and climate variability on food stability, it was equally under stress. For
example, the interviewed households (84 percent) indicated that they had no carryover stocks. In
a normal situation food stocks are expected to reach the next harvest season. However, most of
the food stocks were expected to run out by November. Low production may force famers to
consume their seed stocks and engage in green consumption as a coping strategy.

41
 CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 Introduction

This chapter begins with the conclusions of the study and highlights the objectives of the
research and the summary of the key findings. The chapter further presents the proposed policy
recommendations based on the key findings and the conclusion of the study. The chapter ends
with recommending areas were future research related to this study could be undertaken.

6.2 Conclusion

The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change and climate variability on
agriculture and household food security as well as the coping strategies of the people in
Kazungula district. The objectives of this study was to examine the nature of climate induced
hazards affecting agricultural production and household food security, to evaluate the impacts of
climate change and climate variability on agriculture and to assess response strategies of
households towards adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability in Kazungula
district.

To achieve these objectives, this study obtained meteorological and agricultural data from 1963
to 2010 from the Zambia Meteorological Department, the Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute and the Ministry of Agriculture. The analysis of observed data from the
Zambia Meteorological Department Weather Stations and the Regional Climate Models from the
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute shows that temperature has increased by 2 °C
and rainfall has decreased by 26.5 percent which was in line with IPCC studies which indicate a
rise in global surface temperatures between 1.5°C to 2°C (IPCC, 2007).

The study established that climate change and climate variability poses a serious challenge to
agricultural production and household food security due to increased variability in annual rainfall
patterns and temperatures as well as extreme events such as droughts and floods. Production of
maize, millet, sorghum and groundnuts has been declining over the past 30 years (1963- 2010)
due to increased occurrence of droughts and floods. Droughts and floods were the main climate
induced hazards affecting the people of Kazungula district and their livelihoods depending on

44
 their adaptive capacity.

Climate change and climate variability has impacted negatively on the four pillars of food
security (access, availability, utilization and stability). Households had poor access and utilization
of food due to low food availability and stability. The asset poor were more vulnerable to impacts
of climate change and climate variability compared to the asset rich due to low adaptive capacity.

Agricultural systems and smallholder farmers were already exposed to the adverse impacts of
climate change and climate variability and had low adaptive capacity to cope with the impacts.
Most of the households were employing crisis, stress and emergency coping strategies which was
a clear indication that people were being threatened with food insecurity.

6.3 Recommendations

Arising from the above conclusions, the study recommends the following:

i. Government should invest in climate smart agriculture to help the local communities adapt
to adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability,

ii. In order to increase agricultural production, government should encourage the local
communities to intensify the production of drought tolerant crops like cassava, sorghum and
millet which is still low compared to maize production,

iii. The Government in collaboration with stakeholders with the involvement of the local
communities should invest in small dams and water harvesting technologies to enhance
agricultural production and narrow the food gap,

iv. In order to ensure continued food security in Kazungula, local communities should invest in
alternative livelihoods like fishing and livestock production, and

v. Promote alternative livelihoods for the well-being of the local communities and promotion of
nutrition.

45
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Potentials of Agroforestry for Climate Change Mitigation in Nigeria: Some Preliminary
Estimates. Global Ecological Biogeography. vol. 8, Pp. 163–173.

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