DECLARATION

I, Lusajo Mwakalesi Ambukege, declare that this dissertation represents my own work and has not
been submitted at this or any other University for award of a degree. Furthermore, this dissertation
does not incorporate any published work or materials from another dissertation.

Sign---------------------------------------- Date-----------------------------------------

ii
 ABSTRACT

The earth’s climate system has changed due to natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities
resulting into increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses thus impacting negatively
on agricultural production and food security. Climate change and climate variability is likely to be
the major cause for low food production, food insecurity, crop failure, collapse of fisheries and
livestock deaths due to alterations in temperature and rainfall. Zambia’s high dependency on rain-
fed agriculture will make it more vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. Kazungula
district has experienced decreased crop production due to extreme climate events such extreme
temperatures and precipitation which has a negative bearing on the four pillars of household food
security. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change
and climate variability on agriculture and household food security in Kazungula district. This
research utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods of research. Qualitative and
quantitative data was collected through household structured questionnaires, focus group
discussions and key informant interviews. Secondary data on rainfall, temperature and agricultural
production statistics was obtained from the Zambia Meteorological Department, Ministry of
Agriculture and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. Research findings suggest
that climate change and climate variability is real and parameters such as temperature and rainfall
have changed in the last 35 years (1963- 1993). For example temperature has increased by 2oC
while rainfall has decreased by 26. 5 percent in Kazungula district. Results further suggest that
climate change and climate variability is a major problem for agriculture, household food security
and rural livelihoods for majority of the people in Kazungula district. Climate change and climate
variability has impacted negatively on the four pillars of food security (access, utilization,
availability and stability). In terms of access, 64 percent of the households were food insecure, 91
percent were severely affected in terms of food availability, 84 percent had no carryover stocks
affecting food stability and 73 percent were highly dependent on purchased cereals from outside
Kazungula district with 72 percent accounting for vegetables and 62 percent for Sugar.

Research findings indicate that 58 percent of the households were exposed to climate change and
climate variability, while the elderly aged between 45 and above (56 percent) were more
vulnerable compared to the youth headed households aged between 20 and 34 years (40 percent).
Majority of the households were highly dependent on emergency and crisis coping strategies that
included sending children to eat from relatives, reducing number of meals eaten per day by adults
and skipping meals. The study concludes that Kazungula is being impacted by the adverse impacts
of climate change and climate variability which has a negative bearing on agriculture and
household food security. The study strongly recommends promotion and adoption of adaption
strategies to build the adaptive capacity of local communities to enhance crop production and
household food security.

Key words: Climate Change, Climate Variability, Food Security, Agricultural Production.

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 DEDICATION

To my beloved wife- Brenda Nakamba, my children- Lukundo, Taizya, Suwilanji and Walusungu as
well as my parents, Mr. Mwakalesi Ambukege and Mrs. Twisibile Ambukege.

vi
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Special gratitudes to my wife- Brenda Nakamba as well as my four children- Lukundo, Taizya,
Suwilanji, Walusungu and my parents- Mrs. Twisibile Ambukege and Mr. Mwakalesi Ambukege
for their support and inspiration. I also want to thank my special friend Mr. Lenganji Sikaona for his
support and relentless encouragement on this dissertation. Special thanks also go to Ms. P. Miyanda
and Ms. M. Chapa from the Zambia Meteorological Department. Lastly, special thanks go to my
supervisor, Dr. E. Sakala who has been very supportive and instrumental on the completion of this
dissertation.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION .....................................................................................................................................

DEDICATION .....................................................................................................................................vi

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...............................................................................................................

LIST OF APPENDICES............................xiii ACRONYMS ..............................................................

.......................................................................xiv CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem...................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Aim ....................................................................................................................................... 3
1.4 Specific Objectives ............................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Research Questions ............................................................................................................... 3
1.6 Significance of the Study ...................................................................................................... 4
1.7 Organization of the Report ................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................. 5

2.1 Climate Change and Food Security: Conceptualizing the Linkages .................................... 5
2.2 The Politics of Climate Change ............................................................................................ 6
2.3 The Evolution of the Concept of Food Security ................................................................... 6
2.4 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: Global Perspective ................................. 8
2.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security in Africa ............................ 9
2.6 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Sub- Saharan Africa ..........................11
2.7 Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Zambia ...................................13

viii
 2.8 Household Food Security ...................................................................................................15
2.8.1 Food Availability .............................................................................................................16
2.8.2 Food Access .....................................................................................................................16
2.8.3 Food utilization ................................................................................................................16
2.9 Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security in Kazungula ....17

CHAPTER 3

DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA ................................................................................ 20

3.1 Location ..............................................................................................................................20
3.2 Population Size ...................................................................................................................20
3.3 Climate................................................................................................................................21
3.4 Soils ....................................................................................................................................21
3.5 Vegetation ...........................................................................................................................22

CHAPTER 4

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY............................................................................................... 23
4.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................23
4.2 Data Collection ...................................................................................................................23
4.2.1 Primary Sources of Data ..................................................................................................23
4.2.2 Secondary Sources of Data ..............................................................................................24
4.3 Sampling design..................................................................................................................24
4.4 Data Analysis ......................................................................................................................27
4.5 Limitations of the Study .....................................................................................................27

CHAPTER 5

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................................. 28

5.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................28
5.2 Population Characteristics ..................................................................................................28
5.3 Nature of Climate Change and Climate Variability ...........................................................31
5.4 Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agricultural Production..............34
5.5 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Household Food Security ........................37
5.5.1 Access to Food by Households ........................................................................................37
5.5.3 Food Nutrition: Prevalence of Oedema in Under- Five Children....................................40

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CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................... 44

6.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................44
6.2 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................44
6.3 Recommendations...............................................................................................................45
6.4 Future Research ..................................................................................................................46

REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 47

APPENDICES .................................................................................................................................... 55

x
 CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

The earth’s climate system has changed from the pre-industrial era to the present both globally
and regionally due to natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities (Topcu et al., 2010).
Increased atmospheric concentrations of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) such as Carbon dioxide
(CO2) and Methane (CH4) have altered the climate system which has resulted in greenhouse
effect and global warming (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (2010). Climate
change may be due to internal or external natural processes, or persistent anthropogenic changes
in the composition of the atmosphere or inland use (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
(IPCC) ( 2014). According to the IPCC, climate change is defined as alterations in the state of the
climate that can be identified by using statistical tests or changes in the mean and/or the
variability of its properties and which persists for decades or longer (IPCC, 2014).

Climate change is possibly the most significant environmental challenge of our time and poses
serious threats to the sustainable development of the emerging economies in developing countries
(Christopher et al., 2013). According to the IPCC (2007), global climate change will impact on
food and water security in a significant but highly uncertain manner in the coming years. There is
overwhelming evidence that Sub-Saharan Africa like other regions in Africa will bear the
consequences of climate change (Sofie, 2012). The 2016 Zambia National Climate Change
Policy notes that countries like South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Mozambique and
Angola experienced a 0.6°C to 1°C increase in temperature resulting into increased occurrence of
droughts, floods and epidemics (Ministry of National Development Planning, 2016). The 2000
flood in Mozambique affected 2 million people, caused 500 deaths, displaced 329,000 people,
while 1 million people were affected by food insecurity. Furthermore, the country recorded a
reduced annual economic growth rate from 10 percent to 4 percent and crop destruction. The
frequent occurrence of floods in Swaziland in 1984 caused widespread crop destruction, water
contamination as well as property and infrastructure destruction (Mudenda, 2010). Similarly, the
challenges for climate change in Zambia are substantial, due to its high dependence on climate
sensitive natural resource sectors for food security, livelihoods and incomes.

In the coming years, climate change is likely to be one of the major causes for low food

1
production due to crop failure, collapse of fisheries and livestock deaths. These impacts are
already causing economic problems and undermining food security and these are likely to
become more severe (IFPRI, 2011 and Ahmed et al., 2009). Some of the climate change induced
hazards affecting the rural communities include droughts, floods, epidemics, pests and
environmental degradation (Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee, (ZVAC) (2005).

Most of the low-lying districts in Southern Province like Siavonga, Gwembe and Kazungula
which are located in the valley areas are negatively impacted by climate change resulting into
food insecurity due to the sensitivity of crops to timing, amount, and intensity of rainfall and
temperature fluctuations (IPCC, 2007). In this regard, agricultural production in Kazungula
district will have multiple impacts on other sectors of the economy such as health because
sufficient nutrition determines productivity and agriculture failure results into food insecurity.
The means and capacity to adapt to changes in climate are scarce due to low levels of human and
economic development as well as high rates of poverty. These conditions combine to create a
state of high vulnerability to climate change in Kazungula district.

Climate change and climate variability is projected to limit the potential for growth in the
agriculture sector in Kazungula district. Low productivity and high levels of poverty, poor soils,
poor market systems and unstable prices coupled with the effects of climate change will
adversely affect household food security and rural livelihoods on which the majority of the
people depend on for income generation (European Commission, 2011). Livestock will also be
affected by drought and floods and will result into livestock deaths because droughts will affect
vegetation growth. Therefore, this study seeks to establish the nature and typology of climate
change induced hazards affecting agricultural production and food security as well as coping
strategies for the people at household level in Kazungula district of Zambia.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Climate change is a major problem for agriculture and household food security in Kazungula
district. Due to climate change and climate variability, Kazungula has had consistent droughts
and floods resulting into low crop yields and food insecurity. Annual average temperature has
increased by 1.3°C and average annual rainfall has decreased by 1.9 mm since 1960. This has
affected agricultural production and food security in Kazungula. Post harvest losses account for

2
30 percent and acute food insecurity levels stand at 76 percent (Thurlow et al., 2009).

Coping strategies to climate change remains a critical and significant goal to reverse the impacts
of climate change on agriculture and household food security. However, the ability to cope with
climate change induced hazards at household level are very low due to high poverty levels, low
literacy levels and labor migration to the urban areas. However, most of the literature
highlighting the impacts of climate change in Zambia have mainly focused on agriculture and
food production at national level. Jain (2007), using the Ricardian model assessed the economic
impacts of mean surface temperature increases and mean seasonal rainfall decrease on farming
activities in Zambia. The study focused mainly on Zambia in general and on crop production but
never looked at the four pillars of food security (access, availability, utilization and stability).
Jemma et al. (2010), looked at the impacts of climate variability on agriculture but never gave a
detailed analysis on climate change and food security. Vermenlon et al. (2010), gives a
qualitative assessment of impacts of climate change on all sectors of the economy but negates the
food security issue and coping strategies of rural households to impacts of climate change.

1.3 Aim

The aim of the study was to assess the impacts of climate change and climate variability on
agriculture and household food security as well as the coping strategies of the people in
Kazungula district.

1.4 Specific Objectives

The specific objectives of the study were:

i. To examine the nature of climate induced hazards affecting agriculture and household
food security in Kazungula district.
ii. To evaluate the impacts of climate change and climate variability on agriculture and
household food security in Kazungula district.
iii. To assess the coping strategies of households towards adverse impacts of climate
change and climate variability in Kazungula district.

1.5 Research Questions

The study attempted to answer the following questions with specific reference to the objectives
outlined above:

3
 i. What is the nature of climate induced hazards affecting agriculture and household food
security in Kazungula district?
ii. What are the impacts of climate change and climate variability induced hazards on
agriculture and household food security in Kazungula district?
iii. How are the households coping with the adverse impacts of climate change and climate
variability in Kazungula district?

1.6 Significance of the Study

The existing nascent literature in Kazungula on climate change and food security has very little
empirical support. Climate change is a cross cutting issue affecting all sectors of the economy
with agriculture and food security being the most vulnerable and affected sector by the impacts of
climate change and climate variability. In view of the aforementioned, climate change is one of
the problems facing rural communities in Kazungula. This research will therefore, help policy
makers in Kazungula district to mainstream climate change and climate variability related issues
in local plans. The significance of this study is that it will help district planners to develop long
term adaptation strategies for rural households to increase agricultural production and household
food security, particularly in Kazungula district and generally in Zambia. This study will further
contribute to the knowledge on climate change and vulnerability and enhance long term
adaptation strategies to climate change.

1.7 Organization of the Report

This report is structured in five chapters. Chapter 1 gives highlights on the background of the
report, particularly on what other studies have looked at while Chapter 2 provides a theoretical
framework on similar studies on impacts of climate change and climate variability on agricultural
production and food security. Chapter 3 outlines the research methodology that was used in this
study, Chapter 4 presents the results and discussion of the findings and Chapter 5 presents the
conclusion and recommendations of the study based on the findings of this study.

4
 CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Climate Change and Food Security: Conceptualizing the Linkages

It is imperative to note that climate change is multifaceted and has been defined in different ways
by different authors. For instance, the United Nations Framework on Climate Change
Convention (UNFCCC) defines climate change as the change that can be attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over a comparable time period (UNFCCC, 1992).
On the other hand, the IPCC defines climate change as a change in the state of the climate that
can be identified by changes in the mean and or the variability of its properties and that persists
for an extended period, typically periods or longer (IPCC, 2014). From these two definitions
climate change can be defined as the change in the key properties or dimensions of the climate
including the elements of weather such as average temperature, wind and rainfall over a longer
period of time.

According to Kurukulasuriya et al. (2006), the main drivers of climate change are fossil fuel
burning, deforestation and other human practices that increase the concentrations of GHGs in the
atmosphere. The two main sources of these greenhouse emissions are from burning fossil fuels
(oil, coal, and natural gas) and agricultural as well as other land use changes especially
deforestation (Seventh African Development Forum, (SADF) (2010). The study by SADF
(2010), contends that in Africa, agriculture is the major contributor of greenhouse emissions (34
percent) compared to other sectors such as manufacturing (10 percent) and other industrial
processes (3 percent). Therefore, agriculture is both the contributor and victim of climate change
effects (SADF, 2014). According to the IPCC (2014), the impacts of climate change varies from
region to region depending on the mitigation measures and the ability to adapt. The impact of
global warming has significant consequences for agricultural production and trade of developing
countries as well as an increased risk of hunger.

Due to impacts of climate change, the total agricultural production could decline by 50 percent
(Funk, 2005). Further, recurrent droughts and floods are becoming common in different
continents with Africa been the most affected. Furthermore, climate change has a negative
bearing on the four pillars of food security which are access, availability, utilization and stability.

5
Availability of agricultural products is affected by climate change through its impacts on crop
yields, crop pests and diseases, income distribution and agricultural demand (Schmidhuler and
Tubiello, 2007). In addition, stability of crop yields and food supplies is negatively affected by
variable weather conditions. Physical as well as economic and social access to food would be
impacted by climate change as agricultural production declines, food prices increase and
purchasing power decreases. Climate change is equally a threat to food utilization through its
direct effects on human health and the spread of diseases in geographical areas which were
previously not affected. Current responses to climate change threats, particularly those affecting
agriculture in developing countries and hence, the majority of the rural poor underestimate the
gravity of the situation.

2.2 The Politics of Climate Change

Climate change has become a political issue at both global and regional levels with two divergent
views emerging. There is a school of thought that believes climate change does not exist but
rather the impacts being felt are climate variability and not climate change. This school of
thought is common in the United States of America (USA) and is propagated by people like Jim
Inhofe, the Koch brothers, donors, oil companies and politicians like Al Gore. The other world
view propagates that the earth's climate system has changed resulting into increased and severe
occurrence of disasters and the major proponents include world renown scientists like Professor
Bolin , Hogbom, Arrhenius and Keeling (Bolin, 2007). This study therefore, takes the view that
both climate change and climate variability exist and has negative consequences on agriculture
and household food security. There is, however, enough evidence that climate change is real and
that the global mean temperature has increased between 0.3°C and 0.6°C since the late nineteenth
century (Bolin, 2007).

2.3 The Evolution of the Concept of Food Security

The concept of food security has evolved over the last three decades and started emerging in the
1970s during the deliberations on international food crisis at a time of global food crisis. The
primary concern of these discussions was mainly on food availability and price stability of basic
foodstuffs to some extent. During the World Food Summit in 1970, food security was defined as
availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic food stuffs to sustain a steady
expansion of food consumption and to offset instability in production and prices (Ulrich, 2011).

6
In an attempt to broaden this definition, the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1983
included securing access by vulnerable people to available supplies. In 1986, the World Bank
advanced the definition of food security by distinguishing between chronic food insecurity
associated with problems of continuing structural poverty and transitory food insecurity which
was a product of natural disasters and economic collapse (FAO, 1912). This definition was
further broadened to include access of all people at all times to enough food for an active and
healthy life. By 1990, the World Food Summit adopted a still more complex definition, which
contained that ''food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels is
achieved when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life''
(FAO, 2012).

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life, (FAO, 2003). National food security refers to the situation where each
person and member of any household has physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
Household food security is the application of this concept at household level, with individuals
within households as the focus of concern. Hence, adverse weather conditions such drought and
floods, political instability (social unrest) or economic factors (unemployment, rising food prices)
may impact on household food security status. With climate change, the yields of some major
crops like maize, groundnuts and wheat are likely to be reduced, for example, decrease of 6.9
percent for maize by 2020 as compared to the drought resistant crops like sorghum, millet and
cassava (Brown and Crawford, 2007). The decreases in crop yield and livestock production will
make the majority of the rural poor to be food insecure.

The impacts of climate change on food availability will be experienced differently, depending on
location. For example, moderate warming (increases of 1ºC to 3ºC) is expected to benefit crop
and pasture yields in temperate regions, while in African tropical and seasonally dry regions, it is
likely to have negative impacts, particularly for cereal crops. Warming of more than 3ºC is
expected to have negative effects on production in all regions (IPCC, 2007). It is projected that
climate change and climate variability is likely to have a negative bearing on agricultural

7
production which will in turn compromise household food security. The supply of meat and other
livestock products will be influenced by crop production trends, as feed crops account for
roughly 25 percent of the world’s cropland (Eugene, 2013).

2.4 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: Global Perspective

Climate change, agriculture and food security has become a major subject of global concern
because impacts of climate change cut across the globe irrespective of boundaries. Climate
change has emerged over the last 25 years not just as a physical reality, affecting global and
regional climates, but also as a socio-cultural phenomenon, an icon of a globalizing world which
is increasingly altering the physical fabric of the planet and at the same time demanding new
forms of global governance (Hulme and Turnpenny 2004). However, the increased frequency of
extreme and unpredictable weather events, in a manner consistent with the changes predicted by
global climate models is expected to exacerbate the global food challenge as the world moves
toward the middle of the 21st century (Eugene, 2013). Mudenda et al. (2009), notes that climate
change is likely to impact on agriculture and food security across the globe. Any impacts on
agriculture will have multiple effects on agriculture dependent livelihoods and household food
security.

The concept of food security goes far beyond production and encompasses issues relating to
availability of food, distribution, access, utilization and exchange aspects. Food security is
dependent on availability of food, access to food, utilization to food and stability. Edame argues
that climate change will affect the four key dimensions of food security and these are availability,
stability, access and utilization (Edame, 2013). The United Kingdom (UK) experienced the
adverse effects of climate change during the 1995 drought and the autumn flooding in 2000
which affected agricultural productivity and household food security (Hulme and Turnpenny,
2004). It was at that time that climate change related issues attracted the attention of society and
political leaders in the UK which culminated into the publication of the first Comprehensive
Climate Change Programme identifying climate change related risks as well as policy measures
and initiatives which would help in managing climate change risks. The comparable figures for
Southern Asia, the region with the second highest undernourishment rates, were 24 percent and
21 percent respectively. Moreover, the latest figures for fragile countries show a rate of
undernourishment of 31.4 percent compared to 14.5 percent for non-fragile countries due to low

8
agricultural production and food insecurity arising from impacts of climate change (FAO, 2012).

The USA in the Midwestern of the states experienced high daily minimum temperatures from
2010- 2012 rainy season affecting crop yields (Peters et al., 1971; Hamlin, 2012). However, this
study does not state to what extent yield loss affected the four pillars of food security in the
affected areas (Eugene, 2013). Arising from this argument it is clear that the impacts of climate
change on agriculture and household food security will vary from region to region. The Western
US, particularly the US Southwest, is projected to be impacted by climate change much more
than the Eastern half (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2006). Although there has been a lot of
studies on the impacts of climate on agriculture, most of these studies have been biased towards
the scientific aspect at global level.

Climate change is a major challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for more
than 60 percent of the population in the Asia-Pacific region (Edame et al., 2011). Consistent
warming trends, more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as droughts, cyclones,
floods, and hailstorms have been observed across Asia and the Pacific in recent decades. Rice
producers in Eastern India and the Terai of Nepal suffer from frequent droughts; Bangladesh,
Bihar and Assam (States in India) suffer yield losses from frequent floods and submergence; and
the wheat farmers in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan face similar challenges
to many parts of Afghanistan (Lal et al., 2011). In South Asia, over 40 percent of under-five
children are under-nourished and in many areas, under-nutrition rates are as high as those in the
poorest African countries such Somalia and Chad.

2.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security in Africa

Climate change, agriculture and food security are very broad concepts which have attracted the
attention of many researchers in the last three decades. Climate change, agriculture and food
security is increasingly becoming a subject of great concern both in developed and developing
countries alike. There is unanimity among most researchers that climate change effects are being
felt across the globe. Majority of the people (85 percent) in rural Africa depend on agriculture for
their survival and household food security. The African continent has become warmer than it was
100 years ago, warming at the rate of about 0.5°C in this century and temperature is likely to
further increase between 1.5°C to 4°C Centuries to come (Hulme et al., 2005 and FAO, 2009).
Substantial Inter- annual and multi-decadal variations have been observed and near continent-
9
wide droughts in 1983 and 1984 had dramatic impacts on agricultural production and food
security (Benson and Clay, 1998).

Although climate change will have both positive and negative impacts on rural economies and
livelihoods, predominantly negative effects are expected in developing countries (Richard et al.,
2007). This is a clear indication that the impacts of climate change are both positive and negative,
however, most studies tend to ignore the positive impacts of climate change. It is widely agreed
among researchers that El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the significant source of inter-
annual climate variability in the tropics (Assessments of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate
Change, 2007). However, the IPCC (2014) notes that climatic changes in precipitation and global
warming will cause the sea level to rise. Christensen et al. (2007), observes that an increase in the
intensity of high rainfall events is expected in Africa as in other regions affecting the vulnerable
communities living along coastal areas. In the same vein, some models also project more frequent
and severe drought periods in many parts of Africa (Christensen et al., 2007). A number of
countries like Mozambique, Ivory Coast and Kenya along coastal areas have been adversely
affected by sea level rise. Due to sea level rise, coastal areas have been flooded thus destroying
crops, infrastructure and ecosystems. This leads to low agricultural productivity hence causing
food insecurity. The poor in developing countries are more vulnerable compared to the rich with
high adaptive capacity in developed countries.

The most significant impacts of climate change in many African countries arise from higher
temperatures changes ranging between 3°C and 4°C, increased water scarcity and extreme
weather events such as floods and droughts that will most strongly affect agriculture which will
cause animal stress and crop failure. It is therefore, safe to assume that temperature changes
across countries like Mali, Zambia, Tanzania and Malawi will follow the general trend for the
whole Africa. The overall effects are likely to be stronger if global warning exceeds 2°C (Lobell
et al., 2011).

Global temperature has been rising over the last decade and this can be traced to the melting of
mountain glaciers. The ice on top of Mount Kilimanjaro is already melting due to rise in global
temperature (Lobell et al., 2011). The melting of mountain glaciers, ice margin and thermal
expansion of the oceans West of Greenland during the last century shows that the major part of

10
sea level rise is linked to global warming (Bolin, 2007). Agriculture in Africa is rain fed,
therefore any fluctuations in water availability and temperature will result in reduced crop yield
and livestock losses. The impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security are going to
make it difficult to achieve food security due to increased commodity prices and reduced crop
production at both global and regional levels. Crop yields are projected to decline by 50 percent
while revenue from crop sales is forecast to decrease by as much as 90 percent in the coming
decades and agriculture losses of between 2-7 percent of GDP is expected in parts of the Sahara,
2-4 percent in West Africa and 0.4-1.3 percent in Central Africa (FAO, 2009). The World Bank
(2008), projects that Sub-Saharan Africa will become the most food insecure region compared to
Asia with almost 45 percent of the population being undernourished in 2080 compared with 24
percent currently. On the positive side, countries like Ethiopia may have long growing periods
due to climate change (World Bank, 2008).

The world's resources are adequate to produce enough food for its population for at least the next
few decades. However, due to uneven distribution of food, many countries experience food
insecurity, with food supplies inadequate to maintain their citizens’ per capita consumption or to
meet their nutritional requirements, (Shapouri and Rosen, 2001). Although there are food security
challenges across the world, most progress remains to be made in Africa and in countries in
fragile situations. According to Kandji et al.(2006), the proportion of undernourished population
in Sub-Saharan Africa, decreased from 32 percent (1990-1992) to 29 percent in 2008. Extreme
rainfall and subsequent heavy flooding damage will also have serious effects on agriculture
including the erosion of topsoil, inundation of previously arid soils, and leaching nutrients from
the soil (World Wide Fund for Nature, 2006). From 1996 to 2003, as observed by Funk et al.
(2005), there has been a decline in rainfall from 50-150 mm per season and corresponding
decline in long-cycle crops such as slowly maturing varieties of sorghum and maize across most
of eastern Africa. Long-cycle crops depend upon rain during this typically wet season and
progressive moisture deficit results in low crop yields in the fall, thereby impacting the available
food supply.

2.6 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Sub- Saharan Africa

According to Thornton (2012), agriculture is the economic mainstay of many Sub- Saharan
countries, employing about 60 percent of workforce and contributing an average of 30 percent of

11
GDP. Climate change is considered as posing the greatest threat to agriculture production and
food security in many Sub- Saharan Africa countries due to low adaptive capacity to effectively
cope with falling crop yields among others. Southern Africa, in particular, already experiences
climate variability, in the form of droughts and floods, and this is projected to intensify in the
future. This will have negative implications for agricultural productivity by changing the nature
of the growing season and the spatial area suitable for different crop types. Though food security
is not solely dependent on food availability, changes in productivity are likely to have
implications on the food security of vulnerable groups of the population (Vincent and Cull,
2014). At regional level a warming of 1°C to 2°C is expected to result in decrease in agricultural
yields in arid, semi- arid and tropical regions. Further, for example in the Sahel region, Agro-
ecological zones are likely to shift in ways difficult to predict. Countries such as Zambia,
Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and South Africa have experienced more
droughts (1986/1987, 1991/1992, 1994/1995 and 2001/2003) compared to floods (1986/1987 and
1997/1998). For example, in the last 30 years Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique have
experienced four drought and two flood events (Dev and Sharma, 2010).

Thornton et al. (2012) Food insecurity is one of the greatest challenges facing Sub-Saharan
Africa and this is attributed to frequent occurrence of extreme weather events such droughts and
floods, low investments in the agricultural sector, low agricultural productivity, high
transportation cost, poor infrastructure, inadequate markets and weak financial support systems
for farmers (Timothy et al., 2009). Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa such as Zambia, Zimbabwe,
Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania are vulnerable to frequent extreme
weather events such as droughts and floods which affect agricultural productivity and food
insecurity. According to Parry et al. (2004), food production and prices are being hit globally by
extreme climate events such as floods and droughts. The Horn of Africa experienced severe
drought in 2011 due to climate change impacts which caused food insecurity (Atieno, 2011).
According to Elagib and Elhag (2011), about 11 million people were in need of food assistance in
the Horn of Africa in 2011, 4 million people suffered from acute food crisis in Somalia and 3.7
million in Kenya were food insecure. Although countries in the temperate region are likely to
generally enjoy increased agricultural productivity, countries in the tropical and sub-tropical
regions are likely to suffer agricultural losses due to climate change which is most likely to affect
food availability negatively in the coming years (Dev and Sharma, 2010).

12
The effects of climate change are evident in Zimbabwe’s increasing variability in rainfall
patterns, high temperatures (26°C and above), increased frequency and extremity of droughts and
floods. Despite other factors that have affected Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector such as the
agrarian land reforms, climate change has played a major role in destabilizing food production in
the country. During the 2011/ 2012 season, Zimbabwe was forced to import over 50 percent of its
maize requirements (Timothy et al., 2009). This has mainly been attributed to a reduction in the
amount of rainfall received annually which has greatly affected yields of the maize crop. The
February 2000 flood in Mozambique resulted into 700 deaths, U$ 500 million economic loses
and 4.5 million people were affected by food insecurity among other impacts (Adesina et al.,
1999).

2.7 Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Zambia

The GHGs Emissions in Zambia in 1994 stood at 51.52 million tons CO2 equivalent and 54.72
million tons in 2000 and are expected to further rise to 216.8 million tons CO2 equivalent by
2030. However, there are strong indications that GHGs have increased by 6.2 percent from 1994
to 2000. Land use change and forestry accounted for the largest contribution, 73.7 percent
followed by agriculture at 18.9 percent, emissions from the energy sector accounted for 4.8
percent, and industrial processes stood at 1.8 percent and contributions from waste was 0.8
percent (IPCC, 2007). The major contributing factor to GHG emissions in Zambia is
deforestation and mining activities. In Zambia, agriculture continues to be an important source of
household food security and livelihood, supporting about 85 percent of the population. The
country’s agriculture sector is dominated by small scale rural farmers who are dependent on rain
for crop production (Mikkel et al., 2013).

The Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources (MTENR) reveals that 85 percent
of the population participates in agriculture and the sector contributes 20 percent to GDP
(MTENR, 2011). Climate change is expected to exacerbate the effects of floods and droughts
because of the predicted increase in frequency and severity of climate hazards. This will increase
the vulnerabilities of many sectors, livelihoods and assets within Zambia. The expected impacts
of climate change include an increase in the mean annual temperature of 1.2°C to 3.4°C by 2060,
a decrease in rainfall during the months of September to November period and an increase during
December to April (Nehemia et al., 2009). These changes are predicted to result in seasonal

13
droughts, dry periods within the rainy season, intense rainfall, heat waves, increased temperatures
in valleys, floods, flash floods and changes in growing seasons as a result of delayed onset of
rainy season or shortened growing period. Thus, any abrupt change in climate has a potential to
significantly reduce agricultural production and household food security. Since the majority of
Zambia’s population lives in rural areas and depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture for food and
income, climate change presents a challenge to the country’s attempts to reduce rural poverty,
which currently stands at 80 percent (CSO, 2010).

According to Thurlow et al. (2009), there is a 75 to 80 percent chance in any given year that there
will be either a drought or a flood in these three zones (droughts affected Agro-ecological region
I, four in region IIa, and one in Zone IIb). Therefore, an increase in the frequency and severity of
El Niño events has been observed from the 1980s for example strong El Niños occurred every 10
to 20 years. Further, between 1988 and 1992, more than 15 El Niño drought events were reported
at regional and national levels (Kandji et al., 2006). The vulnerability of crop production to
climate shocks in Zambia is further enhanced by the fact that a significant of arable land in
Zambia is in a semi-arid region of Central, Eastern and Southern Provinces.

Impacts of climate change in Zambia are closely associated with droughts and floods which lead
to loss of life, livestock and human diseases, destruction of agricultural crops resulting in food
shortages, displacement of populations, damages on infrastructure such as roads, schools, health
facilities and water points like boreholes. These impacts of drought are well pronounced in
drought sensitive areas of agro-ecological region I in Southern Province. The drought conditions
of 1991/1992, 1994/1995, and 2004/2005 led to a near complete or complete crop failure in
several areas of Southern Province with an average reduction in crop yields of 65- 72 percent
(Thurlow et al., 2009). The occurrence of extreme events like floods and droughts shows in
increasing trend for all the provinces with Southern Province being the most affected as indicated
in Table 1. For example, Table 1 shows that in the last 13 years, 835,130 households were
affected by both floods and droughts compared to the Copperbelt province which had 23,582
affected households and Luapula Province had 30,554 affected households (ZVAC, 2016).

14
 Table 1: Impacts of Extreme Events from 2003 to 2016

T OT A L
YE A R 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2 0 10 2 0 12 2 0 13 2 0 14 2 0 15 2 0 16 N UM B E R OF
F LOO D S / A F F EC TED
DRY DRY DRY
E VE N T D R OUGHT D R O UGHT F LOO D S F LOOD S F LO OD S F LOO D S DRY F LOOD S HO US E HOLD S
S P E LLS S P E LLS S P E LLS
S P E LLS

C EN TR A L - 277,632 - 32,232 18,174 3,258 - 53,637 - 4,573 12,063 401,569

C OP P E R B E LT - - - 23,582 - - - - - - 23,582

EA S TER N 10,349 118,643 - 32,352 - 9,800 10,661 - 26,461 60,498 32,498 301,262

LUS A KA 2,655 49,677 - 211,066 - 3,753 - 19,016 - - 8,967 295,134

LUA P ULA - - - 9,024 - - - 18,094 3,436 - - 30,554

S OUT HE R N 46,935 429,132 - 130,086 - 19,024 47,097 87,490 - - 75,366 835,130

N OR T H
WE S T E R N - 23,774 71,548 14,490 67,115 2,445 5,084 - 748 5,249 - 190,453

N OR T HE R N /
M UC HIN G A - - 244,715 74,028 25,361 - - 16,071 6,128 - - 366,303

WE S T E R N - 333,804 124,603 96,592 - 34,459 - 15,188 18,252 29,805 42,732 695,435

T OT A L 6 1,9 4 2 1,2 3 4 ,6 6 7 4 4 2 ,8 7 3 6 2 5 ,4 6 0 112 ,6 5 9 7 4 ,7 4 9 6 4 ,8 5 4 2 11,5 0 9 5 7 ,0 3 9 10 2 ,14 0 17 3 ,6 4 2 3 ,13 9 ,4 2 2

Source: Adapted from the Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Reports, 2003- 2016

2.8 Household Food Security

Achieving food security requires adequate food availability, access and absorption. Agriculture
plays a vital role in contributing to all the three components of food security (Dev, 2011). The
definition of food security by Dev (2011) fails to take into consideration nutrition which is an
important pillar for food security as defined by the FAO. The FAO defines food security as a
“situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to
sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life” (FAO, 2003). According to FAO (2009), there are four key dimensions of
food security which are food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system
stability or affordability. Increasing temperatures and shifting rain patterns across Zambia will
reduce access to food and create effects that impact regions, farming systems, households and
individuals in varying ways.

15
2.8.1 Food Availability

Both more extreme weather and slow-onset changes in the climate (increasing temperatures and
changing rainfall) will hit food production and food distribution systems, reducing the amount,
type and quality of food available for consumption (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2006).
Food availability addresses the “supply side” of food security and is determined by food
production levels, stock levels and net trade. The availability of sufficient food within a country
is not an indicator of household food security (Doken and White, 2001). For example, Zambia
has continued to record a bumper harvest in the last five years but this has not translated in
improvements of food security of all people in many parts of the country at household level.

2.8.2 Food Access

Household food access is the ability to acquire sufficient quality and quantities of food to meet all
household members’ nutritional requirements. Climate change will significantly increase the risk
of hunger and malnutrition. This argument was also echoed by Doken and White (2001) that the
problem of under nourishment is often linked to the lack of access to food and poor distribution.
Sufficient access to food may be determined by adequate incomes or other resources to purchase
levels of appropriate foods needed to maintain consumption of an adequate diet/nutrition level
(Parry et al., 2004). This means that access to food is determined by physical and financial
resources, as well as by social, cultural and political factors. Edame (2013), insulates this debate
by arguing that markets and non-market mechanisms are the two determinants of food
accessibility.

2.8.3 Food utilization

Consumption and nutrition are the two key dimensions of food utilization, Nyanga (2012) with
the former referring to food quantity and quality of dietary needs while the latter relates to the
extent to which the body is able to make use of nutrients from the consumed food in order to live
an active and healthy life (Riely et al., 1999). The rich can adapt to climatic shocks through
private insurance and selling off assets or by drawing on their savings yet the poor may have no
or very low adaptive capacity thus reduce consumption and cut nutrition levels hence making
them more food insecure.

16
2.8.4 Food System Stability

To be food secure, a population, household or individual must have access to adequate food at all
times. They should not risk losing access to food as a consequence of sudden shocks (for
example an economic or climatic crisis) or cyclical events (seasonal food insecurity). The
concept of stability can therefore refer to both the availability and access dimensions of food
security (Glantz, 1994). Most studies fail to distinguish between impacts of climate change and
chronic food insecurity. Most of the studies tend to focus on crops such as maize and do not take
into accounts local foods such as caterpillars and local fruits or wild fruits to buffer against food
insecurity. The effects of climate change on livestock and fisheries on which the majority of the
poor in rural areas depend on are also overlooked.

Adaptation of agricultural systems and food security to climate change remains a critical
component for achieving household food security and agricultural growth. Climate change will
affect already declining fish stocks due to increased temperatures, water scarcity or declining
water levels in water bodies and disease outbreak which will have a negative bearing on
household food security in rural areas. For example, spotted tilapia, (Tilapia Marie), which is
common in parts of Africa, prefer temperatures between 25°C and 33°C, depending upon
acclimation temperature, and have critical thermal maxima of 37°C (World Wide Fund for
Nature, 2006).

2.9 Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security in Kazungula

Climate change and climate variability can affect agricultural production through their impact on
temperature changes and water availability. Climate change and climate variability is one of the
main sources of uncertainty and risk in agricultural systems in Kazungula district due to its
dependence on weather and most production decisions directly or indirectly involve weather
factors (Hulme et al., 2005). The FAO report indicates that increased frequency and intensity of
flooding and drought will have negative impacts on agricultural production, particularly food
security (FAO, 2009). For instance, for maize to grow it needs average rainfall of 450 to 600 mm
of water per season and an average temperature of 20°C (Eriksen, 2005). The critical temperature
detrimental to the growing of crops such as maize in the tropics is approximately 32°C.

Historically, Kazungula has been experiencing a combination of extreme weather events such

17
droughts, floods and extreme temperatures. According to Glantz (1994), meteorological drought
refers to lack of rainfall compared to an expected amount over a certain time period while
agricultural drought is the insufficient rainfall to support agricultural activities prevalent in the
area. Kazungula district displays considerable climatic variability. Rainfall records for nearby
stations obtained from the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) and satellite images from
different Regional Climate Models provides evidence that the climate system has changed in
Kazungula district further countering those that argue that the climate has always been changing
due natural factors (Eriksen 2005 and Bolin 2007). Therefore, Figure 1 below is twofold;
historical data from the ZMD shows that temperature has increased by 2°C and the ensemble of
different regional models show that there is climate variability in Kazungula district.

HADGEM2-ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45 HADGEM2-ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85
HADGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45 HADGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85
ZMD- Model- Historical
30.00

25.00
Temperature (℃)

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

Figure 1: Climate change and climate variability trends from 1963-1998

Source: Adapted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX,
2016)

Previous studies recount that agriculture and household food security in Kazungula has failed for
a number of reasons in the past due to climatic (insufficient or excessive quantity or unsuitable
distribution of rainfall), animal diseases and pest infestation. This research therefore, focuses on
the hydro- meteorological hazards that have occurred in the last 35 years and their implication on
agriculture production and household food security. There is overwhelming evidence and

18
literature augmenting that the local climate in Kazungula has changed in the last 35 years hence
impacting negatively on agricultural production and household food security. Like any part of
Zambia, the district is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability due to
high illiteracy levels, high poverty levels and lack of local capacity to cope with the adverse
impacts of climate change and variability. A study modeled the impacts of climate change on
agricultural production and demonstrated that crop yields are likely to decrease over the next
century due to climate change.

Climate change and variability has contributed significantly to crop failure and food insecurity
due to frequency and increased severity of droughts, dry spells and floods in Kazungula (Funder,
2013). The affected crops include maize, beans, groundnuts and sweet potatoes. In order to cope
with the adverse effects of climate change and variability, Kazungula needs to come up with
coping strategies such as the promotion of conservation agriculture, growing of drought resistant
crops like cassava and sorghum and looking for alternative sources of livelihoods. Kazungula
district has been selected for this study because of the recurrent occurrence of floods since 2005/
2006, 2006/2007 and the droughts of 2007/ 008 (ZVAC, 2008).

19
increased from 34,133 in 2000 to 53,117 in 2010. Kazungula district has a total population of
104,731 translating into 20,024 households (CSO, 2012).

3.3 Climate

Kazungula’s geographical location and topography gives the districts what may be described as a
sub-tropical climate with three distinct seasons: the hot-dry season from mid- August to
November (26oC - 38oC); the rainy season from November to April (27oC - 34oC) and the cool
dry season from April to mid-August (13oC - 26oC). Although, annual rainfall in Zambia ranges
from 600 mm - 1100 mm/year and follows a north-south gradient, with an average of 700
mm/year in the south and 1,400 mm/year in the north. Kazungula district lies in Agro- ecological
region I which receives between 600mm to 800mm annual rainfall and is generally considered
the driest and most prone to drought occurrences (Swennenhuis, 2012).

Rainfall in Kazungula is also strongly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
which brings drier than average conditions in the wet summer months. The reverse occurs during
La Niña episodes, with dry conditions been experienced in the district. The influence of ENSO
contributes to uncertainty in climate projections for this region. The rainy season is also affected
by the Inter-Tropical Conversion Zone (ITCZ) which oscillates between the northern and
southern tropics over the course of a year. Variability in the movement of the ITCZ leads to
variability in rainfall performance during the year.

The mean monthly temperatures during the months of October/ November are hot (22.5oC -
26°C). The cold season is mild with mean monthly temperatures between 13.5oC and 16.5°C.
Daily minimum temperatures during this season often fall below 10°C. Due to the continental
position of the district and the predominately high altitude, the temperature shows a large daily
range. Due to its lower altitude, the Kazungula experiences the highest temperatures exceeding
26°C during the hot season.

3.4 Soils

The dominant soil types in Kazungula district are classified as acrisol, luvisol, lithosol and
arenosol. The Karoo sand, silt and mudstones in the Zambezi Valley are overlain by the more
fertile luvisols and cambisols. The Kalahari sands are mainly covered by arenosols. These sandy-

21
textured soils are often highly permeable and lacks a significant soil profile development
(Swennenhuis, 2012). Soils in Kazungula district are generally poor for agriculture except for
areas along the Zambezi river and its tributaries.

3.5 Vegetation

Most of the areas in Kazungula are classified as miombo woodlands which is highly dominated
by semi-evergreen trees 15 meters to 21 meters high with a well-developed grass layer. Along the
escarpment zone and within the Zambezi Valley, mopane woodland is the predominant
vegetation type. This is one-storeyed woodland with an open canopy of 6 meters to 18 meters in
height. Next to mopane woodland, scattered elements of munga woodland dominated by various
species of acacia, dry forests, grassland and open woodland can be found in Kazungula district
(Swennenhuis, 2012).

22
 CHAPTER 4

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4.1 Introduction

This research utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection. This research
utilized the quantitative approach by developing structured questionnaires, observations and
collection of historical data. Qualitative methods were employed to collect data from Focus
Group Discussions.

4.2 Data Collection

In order to determine and analyze the impacts of climate change on agriculture and household
food security, primary data was collected through a survey of farmers in Kazungula district of
Southern Province. The data was collected using three sets of questionnaires and these were
administered to individual respondents (household questionnaires), key informants at the district
level (district questionnaire), key institutions and informants at community level (community
questionnaires for focus group discussions).

A quantitative assessment of climatic effects was based on agricultural production which was
partially determined by crop yields over a period of time. This research therefore, analyzed both
temperature and precipitation as key variables of climate change and variability in determining
agriculture production and food security. Historical agricultural data and climate data was
collected from the Ministry of Agriculture, Zambia Meteorological Department and Regional
Climate Models (RCMs) using the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX) from the Swedish Hydrological and Meteorological Services respectively. Food
security was determined by the data that was generated through the field survey in Kazungula
district.

4.2.1 Primary Sources of Data

Primary data was obtained through engagements with individuals from institutions that directly
interface with climate change related issues in the country and was purposively selected using
non- probability sampling techniques. This data was collected through administering of
structured questionnaires at household level, interviews with district officials and traditional

23
leaders as well as Focus Group Discussions with members of the community. The household
questionnaire was administered to the communities at household level (Appendix I), community
questionnaire was administered to four communities through Focus Group discussions (Appendix
II) and the key informant questionnaire was administered to the District Administration and other
key informants who deal with climate change related activities in Zambia at different levels
(Appendix III).

4.2.2 Secondary Sources of Data

Secondary sources of data were obtained from published sources (journals, articles and edited
books). Furthermore, the research involved visiting key institutions both government and Non-
Governmental Organizations to collect data on climate change and agriculture statistics. This data
was vital in filling the gaps from field responses. Visited institutions included Ministry of Lands,
Environment and Natural Resources Management, Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience,
Zambia Meteorological Department, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Services,
Ministry of Agriculture and World Food Programme.

4.3 Sampling design

Sample designs may be categorized into two different categories that are probability sampling
and non- probability sampling in order to have a representative sample. Probability sampling
which is also known as random sampling ensures that elements in the population have equal
chance of being selected. Under non- probability sampling the elements of the population are
deliberately chosen by the researcher. This research used non- probability sampling in selecting
the wards to be visited, institutions and focus group discussions because the universe was too
small. The research further used simple random probability sampling to select households that
were interviewed to ensure that the elements in the population had equal chance of been selected
to keep the sampling error low.

According to CSO (2010), Kazungula district has 11 wards with a total number of 10,132
households. A register of famers with a total of 656 households was obtained from the District
Agricultural Office from which the sample was drawn. This research used Krejcie and Morgan
Sampling Method to obtain the sample size in order to avoid biasness (Bryman, 2008). The
sampling of households was carried out using the sampling frame from Central Statistical Office

24
 662 +3 +3 = 668
662 + 3+ 3+3 = 671

To achieve this, a quick count was undertaken in four Supervisory Enumeration Areas (SEAs)
and all the households were listed using a listing form.

4.4 Data Analysis

After the completion of data collection exercise, the data was edited or cleaned, coded and
entered into Census and Survey Processing System (CSPro). After the data was entered into
CSPro, data analysis was undertaken using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and
excel. The study examined the nature and typology of climate change induce hazards affecting
agricultural production in Kazungula district. This was undertaken by analyzing people's
perception on the types of hazards affecting them. The study, further examined historical data
from the Zambia Meteorological Department and the Regional Climate Model data from
CORDEX to validate the people's perception. The study also analyzed the impact of climate
change and climate variability on agricultural production and the adaptive capacity of rural
households to cope with the adverse effects of climate change and climate variability. Further, the
study also analyzed the impacts of climate change on the four pillars of food security (access,
utilization, availability and food stability) as well as nutritional security. For nutritional security,
the study analyzed the nutritional status of the under five children as a proxy for measuring food
utilization.

4.5 Limitations of the Study

The major limitation to this study was inadequate meteorological data (both current and
projected) at local scale on impacts of climate change in Zambia both on crop yields and on
poverty levels at a level that is useful to both policy makers and researchers. Most of the datasets
were at global and regional level rather than community level; hence lack of local meteorological
and agricultural datasets was a big challenge. Kazungula district does not have a meteorological
station hence the meteorological data that was used in this research was interpolated from
Livingstone weather station.

27
 CHAPTER 5

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

5.1 Introduction

This chapter, in view of the above, presents the results of the survey on the impacts of climate
change and climate variability on agricultural production and household food security in
Kazungula district of Southern Province. This chapter, further discusses the population
characteristics of the respondents, nature of climate change affecting households and impacts of
climate change on agriculture and household food security as well as the coping strategies being
employed by the people.

5.2 Population Characteristics

The research showed that most of the households interviewed were male headed (77 percent)
while 23 percent were female headed households. The research further showed that (Figure 3)
most of the households are headed by different age groups with the majority of the households
(35 percent) being headed by people aged between 35- 44 years followed by people aged
between 25- 34 years (24 percent) 45- 64 years (16 percent) while 14 percent were headed by the
elderly aged above 65 years (Figure 3). This shows that both male and female headed households
were exposed to the adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability. However, the
impacts of climate change will be severely felt by women than male headed households as well
as child and elderly headed households due to low coping capacity. These are the age groups that
will most likely be affected by food insecurity.

28
 40
35
Age groups in Percent (%)

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
24 years 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 64 years
and below years years years years and above

Figure 3: Age of Household Heads

Source: Field data, 2016

In terms of education levels attained by household heads, the research showed that majority of
the people had only reached primary education (63 percent) followed by 21 percent of the
population that had attained secondary education while 11 percent had gone as far as tertiary
education and 5 percent had never been to school (Figure 4). This finding showed that literacy
levels in the district were very low which has implications on nutrition security. The more
educated the population is the less vulnerable it is to the adverse impacts of climate change and
climate variability. The high illiteracy levels in the district equally affect people's understanding
of climate issues and on how to respond to the adverse effects of climate change and climate
variability.

29
 5% 11%

21% Never been to school

Primary
Secondary
Tertiary

63%

Figure 4: Levels of Education Attained by Household Heads

Source: Source: Field data, 2016

According to Figure 5, the main crops grown both for sale and consumption in Kazungula district
were maize (30 percent), groundnuts (26 percent), sweet potatoes (16 percent), mixed beans (14
percent), vegetables (11 percent) and sorghum (3 percent). The crops cultivated in Kazungula are
consistent with other studies that have been conducted in the area except that production for
cassava was not common and sweet potatoes was very low. The research findings further showed
that the main livestock kept by households were chickens, cattle and goats.

35
Percentage (%) of Crop Production

30

25

20

15

10

0
Maize Sorghum Mixed Sweet Groundnuts Vegatables
Beans Potatoes

Figure 5: Main Crops Grown for Sale and Consumption in Kazungula

Source: Field data, 2016

30
5.3 Nature of Climate Change and Climate Variability

The research showed that most of the households interviewed were of the view that the local
climate has changed over the last 30 years, for instance 58 percent of the households interviewed
indicated that they were experiencing climate change and climate variability while 42 percent
were of the view that the district was not experiencing climate change and climate variability
(Figure 6). According to Figure 6, majority of the households (58 percent) were experiencing
increased occurrence of floods, followed by rainfall and lastly increased temperatures.

Data from the Zambia Meteorological Station for Kazungula (Figures 7 and 8) shows that that
temperature has increased by 2°C while rainfall has varied in the last 35 years and reduced by
26.5 percent (1963- 2010) which is slightly higher than the global average temperature of 1.5°C
(IPCC: 2007). This may be attributed to the different models that were used, tropical biases and
noise in the data (Jochem, 2017 and Dali et al., 2011). The research findings further showed that
agricultural production has been adversely affected by both climate change and climate
variability due to fluctuating and unstable rain seasons as well as unpredictable weather patterns.

Households not affected by climate change

Households affected by climate change

42%

58%

Figure 6: Perceptions on Climate Change and Climate Variability

Source: Field data, 2016

According to the climate data obtained from the Zambia Meteorological Station, temperature has
increased by 2°C while rainfall has continued to vary over a long period of time in Kazungula

31
 from 1963- 2010 (Figure 7). Rainfall has also declined by 26.5 percent between 1963-2010 due
to continued floods and droughts as well as dry spells experienced in Kazungula. Kazungula has
also recorded between 373.6 mm - 593.9 mm of rainfall between 1963-2010 which is way below
the long-term average of 600 mm resulting into either dry spells and droughts. Further, it has also
recorded between 804 mm -1419.5 mm which is above the 800 mm average resulting into floods
and flash floods. According to the MTENR (2007), Region I has also consistently had the most
droughts and water scarcity and along the Caprivi strip and regular floods along Lake Kariba. It
is therefore, considered to be the most vulnerable region to the impacts of climate change and
climate variability.

29.0 1600
28.5 1400
28.0
27.5 1200
Temperature (℃)

Rainfall (mm)
27.0 1000
26.5
800
26.0
25.5 600
25.0 400
24.5
24.0 200
23.5 0
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008

Temperature (°C) Rainfall (mm)

Figure 7: Temperature and Rainfall Long-term Trend Analysis

Source: Adapted from the Zambia Meteorological Department, 2016

The CORDEX raw data that was obtained from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological
Institute (SHMI) as shown in Figure 8, using two global climate models as well as the observed
from 1963 to 2008 shows a significant increase of temperature by 2°C over 30 years.

32
 HADGEM2-ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45
HADGEM2-ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85
HADGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45
HADGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85
ZMD- Model- Historical
30.00

25.00
Temperature (℃)

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Figure 8: Time Series Analysis of Temperature for Kazungula
Source: Adapted from the Zambia Meteorological Department and CORDEX, 2016

According to Figure 9, in 1988 Kazungula recorded the highest rainfall (1419.5 mm) and
recorded the lowest rainfall in 1964 (375.6 mm). The research findings in Figure 9 shows
significant anomalies in terms of rainfall performance. Any rainfall recording below 400 mm and
above 1000 mm was considered extreme or anomaly, for instance in 1969,1972, 1978, 1986 and
1990 Kazungula recorded above normal rainfall while in 1987, 1992 and 2008 the district
experienced significant reductions in rainfall. The climate models and the observed weather data,
both show that temperature has decreased while rainfall has increased and varied over time
(1962- 2010).

The study showed that most of the households were affected by mainly two climate induced
hazards and these are floods and droughts with floods being the most predominant hazard. This
finding is in line with Nehemia et al. (2015), who observed decreased rainfall in Northern and
Southern Africa and a considerable frequent occurrence of floods and droughts. Most of the

33
households interviewed indicated that they had noticed change in the climate system in the last
30 years which has affected agriculture their main source of income and food. The increased
occurrence of floods and dry spells was having negative effects on agricultural production and
food security. The perceptions were in line with the long-term changes from the Zambia
Meteorological Department and the Global Climate Models.

HadGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43-WFDEI_rcp45
HadGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43-WFDEI_rcp85
Observed_ZMD
1600

1400
Rainfall (mm)

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Figure 9: Time Series Analysis of Rainfall for Kazungula

Source: Adapted from the Zambia Meteorological Department and CORDEX, 2016

5.4 Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agricultural Production

The analysis of hydro- meteorological data shows both a change in the climate system over a
long period of time as well as variability in short term resulting in frequent occurrence of extreme
events such floods and droughts. The variability in rainfall and increase in temperature has
affected agricultural production through decreased crop yield or crop production, pest infestation
on crops and crop failure as shown in Figure 10. Since agricultural production has equally varied
due to climate change and climate variability, household food security has equally been affected.
For instance between 1976 and 2008 maize production declined by 0.004 percent, groundnuts by
0.06 percent, millet by 0.09 percent and sorghum by 0.01 percent.

34
Therefore, when climate change and climate variability induced hazards interacts with high
poverty levels, poor farming practices, human-animal conflict, pest infestation and high disease
incidence due to extreme temperatures it exacerbates the impacts of climate change and climate
variability on agricultural production and household food security. In terms of the impacts of
climate change and climate variability, the survey showed that the impacts varied from low
impact to high impacts.

The observed and Regional Climate Models showed that precipitation has departed from the
long-term normals in the last 35 years. The data further showed that temperature has increased
over time resulting into frequent and severe dry spells while rainfall has become more variable
affecting agricultural production and household food security. Low agricultural production is
likely to have long term negative implications on the four pillars of household food security.

Figure 10: Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Agricultural Production

Source: Adapted from the Zambia Meteorological Department and CORDEX, 2016

The research findings in Figure 11 shows flood and drier conditions in Kazungula, with areas
becoming more drier and flood situations in which maize was flooded hence affecting agriculture
production and food security at household level.

35
Figure 11:: Crop Condition under Flood Water

Source: Field data, 2016

The research findings showed that the impacts of climate change were more severe from floods
(22 percent) followed by droughts (17 percent), however, 15 percent of the households indicated
that they were moderately impacted by both floods and droughts
droughts, respectively. These results
clearly show that the major climate induced hazards that were impacting agricultural production
and household food security were floods and droughts
dr (Figure 12).

Floods Droughts
25

20
Severity of Impacts

15

10

0
Severe Impact Moderate Impact Low Impact

Figure 12:: The Severity of the Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability

Source: Field data, 2016

36
5.5 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Household Food Security

5.5.1 Access to Food by Households

Using the Food consumption score as a proxy for access to food and dietary needs, the study
showed that only 43 percent of the population were better-off and had access to quality food, 33
percent were on borderline while the rest of the households had poor or no access to quality food
to meet their daily dietary needs (Figure 13). In other words, 47 percent of the households had
poor access to food. Poor access to food may be attributed to high food prices, poor
transportation network in the rural areas, lack of markets and inadequate incomes as evident in
ZVAC Reports (ZVAC, 2008).

50
Food Access by Percentage (%)

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Poor Borderline Better- Off

Figure 13: Food Access and Household Dietary Needs

Source: Field data, 2016

The research findings showed that food security was impacted by climate change and climate
variability over a period of time (Table 2). The research findings in Table 2 further showed that
majority of the households were marginally food insecure (29 percent) and severely food
insecure (35 percent). The findings in Table 2 is a summary of a composite of food insecurity
indicators which includes a combination of food consumption score, asset wealthy index, food
expenditure share and capacity to cope with adverse impacts of climate change and climate
variability shows that majority of the people were food insecure (64 percent).

37
Table 2: Composite of Food Security Indicators

Food Security Indicators Food Secure Moderately Marginally Food Severely Food
Secure Insecure Insecure
Food Consumption Score 27% 0 30% 43%
Asset Wealthy Index 19% 0 42% 39%
Food Expenditure Share 19% 17% 19% 45%
Coping Strategies 42% 21% 25% 13%
Average Food Security Indicator 27% 0.095% 29% 35%

Source: Field data, 2016

The Figure 14 shows that the three main sources of income were crop production, gardening and
casual labor translating into 56 percent of the population engaged in crop production, gardening
and labor sharing 13 percent, respectively.

50
Income Contribution by Percentage (%)

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Figure 14: Main Sources of Income

Source: Field data, 2016

38
5.5.2 Food Availability

The research findings in Figure 15 showed that 91 percent of the households had very low food
stocks because they produced below 100 by 50 Kg bags of maize while 5 percent of the
households had moderate stocks of maize translating into 100 to 200 by 50 Kg bags of maize
compared to the marginally food secure (2 percent) and the food secure (2 percent). Though food
was readily available on the market from other surplus districts, it was quite expensive because
people were unable to purchase the food stocks due to high prices and high poverty levels at
household level. Food can be said to be available when it is affordable at all times by all people
but only the better-off had capacity to purchase food. Inadequate food supply affects food
nutrition resulting into increased stunting and underweight cases.

100
90
80
70
Food Stocks

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Severely Food Moderately Food Marginaly Food Food Secure
Insecure Secure Secure

Figure 15: Food Stocks Availability or Production

Source: Field data, 2016

The research findings showed that in terms of food utilization and dietary food diversity which is
part of an indicator for measuring household food security, 96 percent of the households did not
consume leguminous foods compared to 9 percent who indicated consuming leguminous food
groups 24 hours before the field survey (Figure 16). Further, Figure 16 below reveals that
majority of the people consumed cereal food groups (27 percent), vegetables (4 percent), Sugar
(7 percent), meat (27 percent) oil foods (72 percent) and fish food groups (5 percent) and most of
these foods were from purchases from other districts like Lusaka, Choma, Sesheke, Chipata and
Ndola. The main factors affecting food availability are low production levels at household level,

39
poor distribution, low supplies of food, low stock levels and food net trade at community level.

None Per Day Once Per Day

120

100

80
Food Utilization

60

40

20

Figure 16: Food Utilization and Dietary Diversity

Source: Field data, 2016

5.5.3 Food Nutrition: Prevalence of Oedema in Under- Five Children

Oedema which is a form of severe acute malnutrition, characterized by swelling of both feet and
face of the child is of public health concern due to its consequences. The research revealed that
majority of children (98 percent) that were suffering from oedema are female. The research
further showed that Stunting, underweight and wasting were highest in children aged between 12-
23 months though it affects all children within the age group of 12 to 49 months. These findings
showed that the uptake of cereals, oils and wild fruits were very good but theses did not amount
to good diet. Food utilization was severely impacted by climate change and climate variability
compared to food access which accounted for 57 percent. Therefore, food utilization was equally
affected by climate variability hence affecting utilization and nutrition.

5.5.4 Food Stability and Purchase Over Time

The findings in Figure 17 shows that 39 percent of the households were more likely to purchase
more maize compared to the previous seasons due to less carryover stocks and low crop yield.

40
Majority of the households (84 percent) indicated that they had no carryover stocks resulting into
food instability. In other words, about 15 percent of the households were likely to purchase less
food because they have stable food stocks. However, most of the people were likely to have
challenges to purchase food stocks because there main source of income which is crop production
was low. Further, food instability is as a result of low agricultural production due to poor rainfall.

Less carry over stocks Same stocks as last year

More stocks No carry over stocks

15%
23%

23%

39%

Figure 17: Impacts of Climate Change on Food Stability

Source: Field data, 2016

The findings in Figure 18 shows that though households started running out of food as early as
May (3 percent) majority of the households run out of food stocks by November (20 percent),
February (15 percent) and March (15 percent). The research revealed that in terms of the impacts
of climate change and climate variability on food stability, it was equally under stress. For
example, the interviewed households (84 percent) indicated that they had no carryover stocks. In
a normal situation food stocks are expected to reach the next harvest season. However, most of
the food stocks were expected to run out by November. Low production may force famers to
consume their seed stocks and engage in green consumption as a coping strategy.

41
Figure 18: Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Stability

Source: Field data, 2016

The coping strategies employed by households during the occurrence of a hazard is a proxy
indicator for food insecurity and adaptive capacity among the affected households. Figure 19
Shows that majority of households (41 percent) did not employ any coping strategies, while 25
percent used crisis coping strategies, 21 percent adopted stress coping strategies and 13 percent
engaged in emergency coping strategies. Majority of the households (64 percent) were engaged
in stress coping strategies (borrowing money and spending savings), emergency coping strategies
(selling one's land) and crisis coping strategies (selling productive assets). Other coping strategies
include reduction of meals taken per day by both children and adults, sending children to eat
from friends and relatives, reduced expenditure on food and eating less preferred foods.

42
 45
Coping Srategies by Percentage (%)

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
HH not Stress Coping Crisis Coping Emergency
adopting Strategies Strategies Coping
coping Strategies
strategies

Figure 19: Coping Strategies Employed by Households

Source: Field data, 2016

43
 CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 Introduction

This chapter begins with the conclusions of the study and highlights the objectives of the
research and the summary of the key findings. The chapter further presents the proposed policy
recommendations based on the key findings and the conclusion of the study. The chapter ends
with recommending areas were future research related to this study could be undertaken.

6.2 Conclusion

The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change and climate variability on
agriculture and household food security as well as the coping strategies of the people in
Kazungula district. The objectives of this study was to examine the nature of climate induced
hazards affecting agricultural production and household food security, to evaluate the impacts of
climate change and climate variability on agriculture and to assess response strategies of
households towards adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability in Kazungula
district.

To achieve these objectives, this study obtained meteorological and agricultural data from 1963
to 2010 from the Zambia Meteorological Department, the Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute and the Ministry of Agriculture. The analysis of observed data from the
Zambia Meteorological Department Weather Stations and the Regional Climate Models from the
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute shows that temperature has increased by 2 °C
and rainfall has decreased by 26.5 percent which was in line with IPCC studies which indicate a
rise in global surface temperatures between 1.5°C to 2°C (IPCC, 2007).

The study established that climate change and climate variability poses a serious challenge to
agricultural production and household food security due to increased variability in annual rainfall
patterns and temperatures as well as extreme events such as droughts and floods. Production of
maize, millet, sorghum and groundnuts has been declining over the past 30 years (1963- 2010)
due to increased occurrence of droughts and floods. Droughts and floods were the main climate
induced hazards affecting the people of Kazungula district and their livelihoods depending on

44
 their adaptive capacity.

Climate change and climate variability has impacted negatively on the four pillars of food
security (access, availability, utilization and stability). Households had poor access and utilization
of food due to low food availability and stability. The asset poor were more vulnerable to impacts
of climate change and climate variability compared to the asset rich due to low adaptive capacity.

Agricultural systems and smallholder farmers were already exposed to the adverse impacts of
climate change and climate variability and had low adaptive capacity to cope with the impacts.
Most of the households were employing crisis, stress and emergency coping strategies which was
a clear indication that people were being threatened with food insecurity.

6.3 Recommendations

Arising from the above conclusions, the study recommends the following:

i. Government should invest in climate smart agriculture to help the local communities adapt
to adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability,

ii. In order to increase agricultural production, government should encourage the local
communities to intensify the production of drought tolerant crops like cassava, sorghum and
millet which is still low compared to maize production,

iii. The Government in collaboration with stakeholders with the involvement of the local
communities should invest in small dams and water harvesting technologies to enhance
agricultural production and narrow the food gap,

iv. In order to ensure continued food security in Kazungula, local communities should invest in
alternative livelihoods like fishing and livestock production, and

v. Promote alternative livelihoods for the well-being of the local communities and promotion of
nutrition.

45
6.4 Future Research

The survey recommends for further research on long term adaption strategies under different
climate change scenarios.

46
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