CM1 Models Summary

The key steps in a modelling process
1. Develop a well-defined set of objectives that need to be met by the modelling process.
2. Plan the modelling process and how the model will be validated.
3. Collect and analyse the necessary data for the model.
4. Define the parameters for the model and consider appropriate parameter values.
5. Define the model initially by capturing the essence of the real-world system.
6. Involve experts on the real-world system you are trying to imitate to get feedback on the
validity of the conceptual model.
7. Decide on whether a simulation package or a general-purpose language is appropriate for
the implementation of the model.
8. Write the computer program for the model.
9. Debug the program to make sure it performs the intended operations in the model
definition.
10. Test the reasonableness of the output from the model.
11. Review and carefully consider the appropriateness of the model in the light of small
changes in input parameters.
12. Analyse the output from the model.
13. Ensure that any relevant professional guidance has been complied with.
14. Communicate and document the results and the model.
Advantages of Models
Disadvantages of Models
In assessing the suitability of a model for a particular exercise it is important to consider the
following:
• The objectives of the modelling exercise.
• The validity of the model for the purpose to which it is to be put.
• The validity of the data to be used.
• The validity of the assumptions.
• The possible errors associated with the model or parameters used not being a perfect
representation of the real-world situation being modelled.
• The impact of correlations between the random variables that ‘drive’ the model.
• The extent of correlations between the various results produced from the model.
• The current relevance of models written and used in the past.
• The credibility of the data input.
• The credibility of the results output.
• The dangers of spurious accuracy.
• The ease with which the model and its results can be communicated.
• Regulatory requirements.
Stochastic and Deterministic Models
Advantages of stochcastic models over deterministic models
Advantages of deterministic models over stochastic models

Scenario-based and proxy models
• A scenario-based model would take into consideration a particular scenario; that is a series of input
parameters based on this scenario.
• Proxy models are a simplified models that are a substitute for a more complex model.
o A proxy model aims to emulate outputs of more complex models in a simpler and resource
saving manner.
Short and long-term properties of models

• The stability of the relationships incorporated in the model may not be realistic in the longer term.
• If changes can be predicted, they can be incorporated in the model, but often it must be accepted
that longer-term models are suspect.
• Models are simplified versions of the real world and so may ignore ‘higher order’ relationships which
are of little importance in the short term, but which may accumulate in the longer term.
Analysing the output of the model

• Statistical sampling techniques are needed to analyse the output of a model , as a simulation is just
a computer-aided statistical sampling project.
• The useless and fatally attractive temptation of assuming that the observations are independent and
identically distributed is to be avoided.
• If there is a real-world system against which results can be compared, a ‘Turing’ test should be used.
o In a Turing test, experts on the real-world system are asked to compare several sets of real-
world and model data without being told which are which. If these experts can differentiate
between the real-world and model data, their techniques for doing so could be used to
improve the model.
Sensitivity testing
1. An examination of the sensitivity of the outputs to small changes in the inputs or their statistical
distributions should be carried out.
2. The appropriateness of the model should then be reviewed, particularly if small changes in inputs or
their statistical distributions give rise to large changes in the outputs.
o If small changes in the inputs give rise to large changes in the outputs, then our initial choices
are more crucial.
o If the resulting changes in output are small, then our initial choices are less important in this
respect.
3. The model should be tested by designing appropriate simulation experiments. It is through this
process that the model can be refined.
Communicating the results

• The communication must be such that it takes account of the knowledge of the target audience and
their viewpoint.
• A key issue here is to make sure that the client accepts the model as being valid and a useful tool in
decision making. It is important to ensure that any limitations on the use and validity of the model are
fully appreciated.

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CM1 Models Summary

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The key steps in a modelling process

Stochastic and Deterministic Models

Advantages of stochcastic models over deterministic models

Advantages of deterministic models over stochastic models

Short and long-term properties of models

Analysing the output of the model

Communicating the results

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