1997 State of The Future Millennium Project

NOR’M-HOLUND
The Millennium Project

1997 State of the Future-Implications for
Actions Today
JEROME C. GLENN AND THEODORE J. GORDON
1. Introduction and Background’
1.1 THE FIRST YEAR’S OPERATIONS

The Millennium Project formally began with a meeting of the planning committee
and sponsors at the World Bank in Washington, DC, on February 14,1996. The purpose
of the meeting was to draft the first year’s plan. Financial support for the first year
was provided by the Ford Motor Company, Monsanto Company, the United States
Environmental Protection Agency, the Alan F. Kay and Hazel Henderson Foundation
for Social Innovation, and the Army Environmental Policy Institute. A portion of the
project’s methodology work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology,
Russian Federation, and by computer support from the Maui High Performance Com-
puter Center in Hawaii, which provides the project’s home page on the Internet. The
project’s first book, Frontiers of Futures Studies: A Handbook of Tools and Methods.
published with funding from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), is
expected to be available shortly.
The techniques and methods used during the first year (see Figure 1) to generate
this report included the following:
?? a global panel of experts, referred to as the Global Look-Out Panel, which

interacted through various communications media in a multiround study designed
to identify issues, opportunities, and prospective actions;
JEROME C. GLENN is the executive director of the American Council for the United Nations University,
coordinator of the AC/UNU/Millennium Project, in Washington, DC.
THEODORE J. GORDON is co-director of the Millennium Project for the American Council for the
United Nations University in Washington, DC.
Address correspondence to Jerome C. Glenn, American Council for the United Nations University. 4421
Garrison Street NW, Washington, DC 20016-4055. E-mail: (iglenn@igc.org).
‘Aspects of the Millennium Project were discussed in this journal in the articles “Introduction to the
Millennium Project” by Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn (Vol. 47. No. 2, October 1994, pp. 149-170)
and in “Governance and Conflict Developments Collected in Round 1 of the Millennium Project 1996 Lookout
Study” by the same authors (Vol. 54, No. 1, January 1997, pp. 99-110).
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 56, 203-296 (1997)

0 1997 American Council for the U.N. University
Published 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. tXJ40-1625/97/$17.00
655 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10010 PI1 SOO40-1625(97)00114-5
N
Look-Out Study 8
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Collected 142 ____t Rated likelihood h Distilled 15 issues h Interview leaders
developments. importance, with actions to be in Gov., UN,

actors, added 40 rated by practicality, Corp. NGOs,
developments. effectiveness, and with relevant
Total dev. 182. lead agencies. issue/actions.
Scanning
Feeds look-out Round 3’s descriptions and actions, identification of panels (both for first three rounds
and interviews), scenario bibliography, experimental searching on Internet. I
Scenarios 1
Create 3 * Integrate * Review scenarios. h Put in Annual
Global Scenario Developments into Report & Internet

Sketches. the 3 scenarios. homepage.
1996/7
Cross-Impact e Extend scenarios

15 Issues, find and integrate
relations. models.
Fig. 1. Overview of first year’s operation.

THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 205
?? an on-line interactive system (Internet home page and listservs) that invited
public participation;
?? personal interviews with decision-makers and policy-makers to inquire further
about actions that might prove effective;
?? construction of global scenarios to identify strategies that might be useful in
widely varying images of the future;
?? scanning of relevant publications and other sources to determine whether these
sources might also yield information about issues and opportunities;
?? publishing findings in various ways, including this annual “state of the future”
report.
Pending additional funding, selected high priority issues will be studied in depth, using
specialized panels or other methods of analysis, including modeling.
1.1.1. Global Look-Out Study

The first two rounds of the Global Look-Out study divide the collected develop-
ments into six domains: demographics and human resources; environmental change and
biodiversity; technological capacity; governance and conflict; international economics
and wealth; and integration and whole future. After the second round of the Look-Out
study and during the mid-year planning committee meeting, it was found that many of
the most important projected developments resisted this classification, and as a result,
the developments were regrouped by issues instead. Domains are still used by the
project to insure a cross section of participants, classification of scenarios, and other
information collected.
The panel consisted of futurists, scholars, policy advisors, and others who engaged
in a multiround “Look-Out” study of early signaling of opportunities, problems, and
policies. The initial 200 panelists were those who participated in the feasibility study.
Others were added through literature searches, observations at conferences, and recom-
mendations of others in the field or professional organizations. The Global Look-Out
panelists received three rounds of questionnaires asking the participants to identify
developments in their areas of experience, which suggested new issues or opportunities
on the horizon. The planning committee tested the questionnaires and their content
before the panel received it. The questionnaires were sent by e-mail, air mail, or fax.
The participant demographics are shown in Appendix A.
The first questionnaire (round 1) asked the respondents to describe developments
they saw as existent today in their areas of expertise that could grow to global importance,
but are not yet generally known outside their field, are misunderstood, and/or are not
being properly addressed. The criteria for identifying important developments included
the number of people affected and the severity, permanence, and immanence of the
effect. The participants were also asked for literature references if any existed and the
nature of the consequences flowing from these issues. Finally, the questionnaire asked
for statements about reasonable goals for each suggested issue. A total of 140 develop-
ments was suggested.
The second questionnaire was based on the responses to the first. It requested
feedback on the newly suggested developments. The respondents were also asked to
add to the list of developments and to suggest policies they thought might be effective
and practical. An additional 43 developments were offered. The 183 developments were
then rated in importance and likelihood to provide a basis for the next round.
The third questionnaire grouped and synthesized the 183 developments of the first
two rounds into a set of 15 high-priority issues. These were defined in some detail, and
206 J. C. GLENN AND T. J. GORDON
the respondents were asked to add plausible actions to address the issues and rate those
actions suggested earlier. Additional actions were also collected.
The fourth round was a set of carefully designed interviews of policy-makers
worldwide selected by the staff and project nodes. The interviews were designed to
collect judgments about the issues and actions rated in round 3. Policy-makers were
asked what seemed likely to be effective, why, and what common threads seemed to
connect those actions. These interviews were administered by ten Millennium Project
participants in their native language in about 20 countries. A sample interview was
videotaped and sent to these interviewers to demonstrate how to conduct the interview
protocol and thus improve commonality among the interviews.
All of the questionnaires and the interview protocol are available on the Millennium
Project Internet home page: http://nko.org/millennium. The results of these activities
are also summarized in Section 2.
1.1.2 Global Scenarios

By using a systematic approach, explained in Section 3, a set of three scenarios
was constructed in collaboration with The Futures Group to define self-consistent but
widely divergent images of future worlds. These scenarios are sketches rather than
elaborate descriptions, but the technique used methods that broke new ground, indicat-
ing the potential of this approach for later works by relating results of the Look-Out
study and more conventional scenario construction processes. These scenarios appear
in Section 3.3.
1.1.3 Scanning
In addition, a review of the literature was conducted to identify previously developed
global scenarios that depict potential issues, opportunities, and policies. This work led
to an annotated scenario bibliography (see Appendix B for excerpt), augmenting the
issues backgrounds in the Look-Out study, and to identification of additional project par-
ticipants.
This year’s scanning work was an introduction to what might be possible in the
future. Ideally, a scanning system would have the capability of identifying potential
world issues and possible solutions based on logical inferences derived from a diverse
panoply of on-line data. The system would be capable of operating continuously, search-
ing automatically, and suggesting conclusions that result from the synthesis of ideas
contained in the databases. In this first year’s work, we tested several search engines
and meta-engines in tasks designed to identify new issues and provide detailed informa-
tion about issues already identified. We were particularly interested in finding ways to
limit the number of references returned to those that were most meaningful-that is,
eliminating the “noise” from searches. This work is summarized in Section 4.
2. The Issues
THE GLOBAL ISSUES, THE ACTIONS AND A RANGE OF VIEWS ON

THESE ISSUES AND SUGGESTED ACTIONS
In this section, each of the 15 issues is described in more detail, and actions to address
each are listed with a range of views. These views by the policy-makers interviewed in
round 4 are distilled and added to each issue description. Their comments on actions
are separated by . . . after each action item. Most of those interviewed agreed that
the actions were practical and would be effective, but comments such as “excellent,”
“absolutely agree,” etc., were not included here. Instead, comments that included factors
to consider, improvements, related alternatives, or arguments against the action were

distilled for the reader. Actions with no comments mean that everyone agreed they are
effective and practical to pursue. More detailed interview comments can be found at
the Millennium Project’s Internet site (http://nko.org/millennium) under the 1996 Global
Look-Out study Round 4 interview comments.
2.1. WORLD POPULATION IS GROWING: FOOD, WATER, EDUCATION,

HOUSING AND MEDICAL CARE MUST GROW APACE
The world population is nearly 5.9 billion, and the rate of growth is about 1.6%
per year. About 95% of this growth is in developing countries. Ninety million people
will be added this year, 100 million were added last year, and it is projected that by
the year 2030 there will be 10 billion people on the planet. Whether the needs of this
growing population can be met without economic, political, or environmental upheavals
is uncertain. Nutritional needs of the world will increase more than has been estimated
on the basis of caloric needs, because trends in urbanization, communications, and
distribution of wealth will increase the demand for nutritionally improved food. Urban
populations are growing much faster, especially in developing countries, where the
urban population grew 5-fold between 1950 and 1990, to 1.5 billion, and is projected
by the UN to grow to 4.4 billion by 2025, at which point nearly two thirds of the
developing world will live in cities. Hence, most of this growth is occurring where people
have the least means to support such growth.
In most countries, population growth rates have slowed as a result of decreasing
infant mortality; increasing gross domestic product (GDP)icapita; increasing education
of women; increasing use of birth control measures, particularly condoms; government-
encouraged family planning programs; and the rise of feminism. Infant mortality is high
in poor countries, and the causes of childhood death-infectious diseases and diarrhea
primarily-are presently curable at low cost. The maturing elderly of the Third World
will create a special problem in social services (68% of the projected 1.1 billion people
over the age of 60 by the year 2020 are expected to be in developing nations). While
most demographers and economists see population growth as causing a potential burden
for the world (leading possibly to instability and violence and the growth of the number
of people living in poverty), some see the added people as a resource, both intellectual
and physical. Despite the enormous growth in population over the last two decades,
economies have pretty well kept pace, and in general, today’s problems include surpluses
as well as scarcities, and in many respects, environments have proven to be resilient
after improved policy.
Additional Interviewee Comments

Falling infant mortality, increasing education of girls, and raising income are the
drivers that lower fertility rates. . . . Family planning is an issue for the married couple;
if their social, economic, or psychological circumstances require prevention of pregnancy
to extend the period between one birth to the next. this is acceptable from an Islamic
point of view. . In China, the two effective measures that lower birth rates are
government policy and education. But implementing this as a policy can be a delicate
issue in some of the countries, as it may contradict some religious views. . There are
some countries needing increased population for development, and others that suffer
from overpopulation. For example, population growth is not a problem in Russia. The
problem for Russia is the fair and equitable distribution of resources and products. .
Policies that reduce infant mortality, increase education of girls and women, and provide
political enfranchising correlate well to falling birth rates.
208 .I. C. GLENN AND T. J. GORDON
Actions to Address Issue 1, with a Range of Views on These Actions

2.1.1. GOVERNMENTS AND CORPORATIONS SHOULD ENCOURAGE RESEARCH
AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW LONG-TERM MALE AND FEMALE CONTRACEPTIVES.
Contraceptive methods have to be compatible with local cultural and religious beliefs.
. . . Educate women and men to accept this. . Make it easier to use. . . This has
begun with Norplant, which is a new long-term contraceptive for women. . . Govern-
ments should create and implement effective policy in parallel with this research.
Policies that focus on artificial methods contradict some religious views, and in the
commercial world, concern about liability is a huge impediment. In this case, liability
laws would have to be reformed. . . . What is needed is a “morning-after” pill. This
action is too defeatist. Malthusians are wrong. Make economic conditions appropriate
for investment and new technology; improving the standard of living is more effective.
2.1.2. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP ALSO FROM NON-GOVERNMEN-
TAL ORGANIZATIONS (NGOs) AND CORPORATIONS, SHOULD ENCOURAGE DEVELGP-
MENTOF HIGH-YIELD, SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE. PARTICULARLY THROUGH BIO-
TECHNOLOGY. There is greater public acceptance of biotechnology for medicines
than for foods. People are not looking carefully at the cost/effect ratio of this. When
they do, biotechnology for food will be more acceptable. Add corporate leadership.
. . This action is a top priority of my government. . . . Science and technology can feed
the world. . . . Agreed, but by itself, it cannot solve the food problem. . . Many regions
lack arable land and should seek new sources of food, such as from the sea. Water
takes up 71% of the world’s surface, and the potential production from the sea is very
high. Industrialized production of algae in arid areas is an effective measure to solve
the food problem. . . . This action will be more effective than 2.1 .l; science and technology
can feed the world. . . . To decrease grain loss, we need proper packaging soon after
harvest. We also need mariculture. With hermetically sealed bags (that protect against
rodents and rotting), there’s some 20% loss that could be saved.
2.1.3. NGOS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM GOVERNMENTS, SHOULD INCREASE
THE LEVEL OF SOCIAL MARKETING PROGRAMS THAT TEACH FAMILY PLANNING.
Social marketing should also include reproductive health, nutrition, and child and mater-
nal survival. . . We cannot control family planning. It has to be voluntary. The economic
situation of a family forces one to plan. . . . Social marketing does not make a difference
until infant mortality rates begin to fall. . . . Reinforce South-South (Southern Hemi-
sphere) partnerships. . . This is a very sensitive subject in many African countries.
Limiting life is not acceptable. . . It is naive to think this will work. Larger social.
cultural, and economic forces make these changes.
2.1.4. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM NGOS AND UN AGENCIES,
SHOULD ESTABLISH COORDINATED GLOBAL EFFORTS AND FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
DIRECTED TOWARD INCREASED CONTRACEPTIVE The most effective way to
USE.
do this is to provide low-cost contraceptives through the private sector. Focus on
social marketing to promote the husband’s acceptance of the wife’s use. . . . Teaching
has to begin at the grass roots-not top down. Reproductive health should be taught,
primarily in the primary schools. The secondary schools should teach sexual behavior
and fertility. This can’t be done everywhere, because there is a concern that teaching
reproductive health will diminish morality. . We will need a coordinated effort among
NGOs. . . How to increase contraceptive use without changing the culture and religion?
. Some countries are suspicious of each other’s motives in this area. They are suspicious
that other countries want to keep their population low and hence perceived as less
powerful. Only UN organizations leading this action would be acceptable. . . Financial

incentives just don’t work. They are generally seen as coercive.
2.1.5. GOVERNMENTS AND NGOS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIPFROM CORPORATIONS,
SHOULD ESTABLISH MANY MICROCREDIT MECHANISMS TO PROMOTE LOANS TO
WOMEN IN THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES TO ESTABLISH NEW BUSINESSES. Since increas-
ing income is a leading indicator of falling fertility rates and credit is a proven way to
increase income, this will be an effective policy. . . . Yes, but get more leadership
from corporations. . . . Add training by the UN Educational, Sciences, and Cultural
Organization (UNESCO) and other international organizations and NGOs. . . Make
sure honest management and monitoring are part of this action to make sure it gets to
the poorer people.
2.1.6. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD INVEST IN RURAL/URBAN MARKETING AND DIS-
TRIBUTION SYSTEMS SO THAT RURAL PRODUCE CAN GET TO URBAN Give
MARKETS.
incentives for establishment of industries in rural areas so they become both producers
and consumers. . . . It requires powerful intermediate networks.
2.1.7. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE POPULATION GROWTH AND EXPE.-
DITE CONSERVATION PROGRAMS FOR AGRICULTURE. FOOD, WATER, AND RE-
SOURCES, SUCH AS EDUCATIONAL CAMPAIGNS AND HEAVY TAXES ON MEAT CON-
SUMPTION. Conservation is only part of the solution. . . The problem is not scarcity
of food, but distribution of resources. . . . Add heavy taxes on meat consumption in
richer countries. . Some want universally equal taxation, some do not. . . Add soil
conservation methods like “no tillage farming.”
2.1.8. GOVERNMENTS AND CORPORATIONS SHOULD PROMOTE GROWTH IN DE-
VELOPING COUNTRIES OF NONTRADITIONAL CROPS WITH EXPORT POTENTIAL. Yes.
but not at the expense of traditional crop growth. . . . Cost/benefit analysis is needed.
2.1.9. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD ENCOURAGE PROGRAMS THAT ENDORSE VOLUN-
TARY STERILIZATION. No, completely unacceptable in most African countries.
Additional Actions’ for Issue 1

International organizations and NGOs should support governments in increasing
the education of girls and other policies that reduce infant mortality. . . . Increasing the
qualifications of women through education should be a priority to help solve the popula-
tion problem. . . . Add improvement of people’s quality of life. Generally, people with
a low standard of living adversely affect the environment and consume and even destroy
more natural resources. Population birth rate has an inverse relationship to the educa-
tional level in our region.
2.2. FRESH WATER IS BECOMING SCARCE IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE WORLD

Lack of adequate waste management in most places in the world; excessive con-
sumption and contamination of water aquifers; excessive farming on marginal lands;
and trends in population, urbanization, tourism, standard of living, and technical ability
to find and deliver more water are affecting the availability-and future expectations
of availability-of fresh water. The countries facing scarcity include eleven African
countries, nine Middle Eastern countries, northern China (including Beijing and the
agricultural lands surrounding it), India (including New Delhi and thousands of rural
villages), Mexico (including Mexico City and irrigated farmlands in northern Mexico),
and portions of the western United States. Decreasing availability of water also limits
‘These “additional actions” and those listed for the other issues were suggested by policy-makers during
the interviews.
economic activity. For example, water is the limiting factor in coal production in Shanxi
Province in China.
While methods exist to purify salt water, these methods are expensive. To further
complicate the situation, agricultural uses far exceed other uses of water-agriculture
accounts for as high as 70% of total water usage in some regions. With increased demand
for food, pressure to use water for agriculture can only increase. Agricultural land is
being lost to brackish conditions owing to long-term geological trends in some regions.
The possibility, speed, and consequences of global warming are uncertain, but at the
very least, changes in rainfall patterns will undermine the effectiveness of existing water
control, storage, and distribution facilities and will widen areas affected by scarcity.
Some areas, such as northeast China, have benefited from the increased average tempera-
tures by increased crop production. Nevertheless, as urbanization, population, and
economic growth continue, competition between urban and agricultural uses of water
will grow and can become a source of political instability and conflict.
Additional Comments on Issue 2

Remote sensing satellites can play a significant role in locating and characterizing
needed resources, including water resources. . . The Qur’an teaches to use the least
amount of water that is necessary and to take all possible measures to prevent waste.
. . . In many countries, including China, water is even more scarce than land.

2.2.1. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD ESTABLISH WATER CONSERVATION POLICIES AND
INCENTIVES TO IMPROVE THE EFFICIENCY OF WATER USE. This should include
legislative and statutory prices, incentives, and public awareness campaigns. . . . Once
subsidized water, especially for agriculture, is eliminated, the problem will disappear.
. . . This should be done gradually. . . . Agriculture offers many opportunities for water
conservation. . . . Water for irrigation should be transported to the plot, not run through
the entire field. . . . Both governments and business should implement strict water
recycling policies for industry. . . . Governments should organize scientists or work
cooperatively to improve measures to reduce water consumption and improve efficiency
of use (such as drip and spray irrigation rather than channel irrigation), as well as create
new water resources. . . . The UNDP, World Bank, UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF),
and other international organizations are implementing water and sanitation programs
and need more financial support. . . The Millennium Project might organize an interna-
tional meeting on water consumption, establish an information network of experts, and
promote visions and programs by regions. UN University has just established the
International Network on Water, Environment, and Health (UNU/INWEH).
2.2.2. CORPORATIONS WITH SUPPORT FROM GOVERNMENT SHOULD BEGIN IMME-
DIATE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS TO PRODUCE THE MEANS FOR
PRODUCING INEXPENSIVE WATER FROM SALT WATER. This is necessary and unavoid-
able in some countries. . . . Start with brackish water, which has less salt than sea water.
It can be used especially for irrigation. Unfortunately, the cost/benefit ratio of salt water
conversion to drinking water is not attractive yet. . . . Also consider the economics of
water transportation. . . . Add “artificial precipitation” or “rain making.” The meteoro-
logical departments in China have successfully performed this, with significant social
and economic benefits being obtained. More attention should be paid to meteorological
engineering. . . . Users’ associations and water distribution companies should also provide
leadership. . . . This is not useful for all countries.
2.23. THE PRIVATE SECTOR, WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM GOVERNMENTS, SHOULD
ENCOURAGE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF PLANT STRAINS AND AGRICULTURAL
PRACTICES THAT USE SALT OR BRACKISH WATER FOR IRRIGATION AND/OR THAT
ARE DROUGHT-HEARTY. Brackish water represents 50% of some countries’ water
resources. . . . United Nations Development Program (UNDP), United Nations Environ-
mental Program (UNEP), International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD),
and others are currently negotiating responsibilities for implementing development
plans arising from the Earth Summit run by the UN Conferences on Environment and
Development (UNCED), especially the dry lands and desertification sections. .
UNESCO did a study that was encouraging and could be generalized. . . Also develop
plants and crops that can live with less water or survive some drought conditions.
Need incentives to get this action done.
2.2.4. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR,
SHOULD DEVELOP WATER TRADING AND MARKETING PRACTICES THAT ALLOW
USERS AND MANAGERS TO BETTER ALLOCATE SCARCE SUPPLIES AND FUND CON-
SERVATION. This will require reliable measurements and advanced monitoring tech-
niques. . . Water pipelines would benefit both supplier and consumer regions. .
South African Development and Cooperation (SADAC) countries will be the first to
work with UNDP and others on the legal transborder solutions to these issues. . It
is a very complex issue with many political, social. and human implications. Like air
and ozone, it poses complex problems of sovereignty, in addition to economic, legal,
political, ethical, and even philosophical problems. Water is not the property of anybody.
2.25. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANI-
ZATIONS. SHOULD SECURE TREATIES AND COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS ON WATER
RIGHTS AMONG NATIONS THAT SHARE WATER RESOURCES BEFORE SHORTAGES
OCCUR. This should be implemented among countries, not as a world order. .
SADAC will be the region to participate in the new UNDP “Water Sharing” program
to assess transborder water issues and potentials for agreements. If successful, this will
be replicated to other areas with transborder water problems. . . Special attention has
to be given to the use of fossil water that exists under two or more countries, when
one country uses it to the degree that it denies neighboring countries’ future use. For
example, Israel’s depletion of fossil water, at the expense of its Arab neighbors, is a
particularly difficult case. . . . Owing to political realities, agreements also need to be
made among different areas or regions within the same country.
2.2.6. UN ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD ESTABLISH A WORLD WATER AGENCY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPEDITE NEW WATERTECHNOLOGY AND WATER EXTRACTION AND
COLLECTION PROJECTS. The World Water Consortium based in France and the
Global Water Partners in Stockholm already exist and sometimes they have problems
coordinating initiatives, but they are able to conduct this mission. There is no need for
another agency. . . Maybe after the current UN reform and re-organization planning
is complete, this action could be implemented. . . The Economic and Social Council
(ECOSOC) of the United Nations can help, but its structure needs to be changed. .
This is the most important action and would make other actions more successful. . . .
The establishment of this agency should be put forward at the General Assembly of LJN
conferences related to this issue. It should include coordination with national legislative
bases, research and development, expediting use of new technologies, and popularizing
this problem in the media.
Additional Actions to Address Issue 2

Research water-saving irrigation technology, timing, and quotas. . . . Invest in
reforestation. . . . Reduce flow of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides. . . . Learn
from the success of the Tennessee Valley Authority on water supply. . . . Improve
management of water basins. . . Agriculture should combine drip irrr&ation with the
use of plastic film (closed environment agriculture), where possible, to.reduce evapora-
tion and increase efficiency. . . . Use sea ice in temperate zones, such as was done
successfully in The Netherlands. . . . We need to go back to the recommendations of
the water meeting in Dublin. . . . Reduce water pollution from industry and agriculture.
2.3. THE GAP IN LIVING STANDARDS BETWEEN THE RICH AND POOR
PROMISES TO BECOME MORE EXTREME AND DIVISIVE
According to the World Bank, in low-income countries, average per capita income
grew 3.4% from 1986 to 1994, compared with 1.9% for high-income countries. One
might conclude that both the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting richer,
but that would be misleading. Excluding India and China from the low-income countries,
the rest fell by 1.1%. Hence, while some poorer countries are getting richer per capita,
incomes in most of the low-income countries either dropped or did not grow. According
to the UNDP’s Human Development Report of 1996, “Nearly 90 countries are worse
off economically than they were ten years ago. . . . The gap in per capita income between
the industrial and developing worlds tripled from 1960 to 1993, from US $5,700 to
$15,400. . . . Today the net worth of the world’s 384 richest billionaires is equal to the
combined income of the poorest 45% of the world’s population-2.3 billion people.”
Besides the moral implications, this issue could lead to increased instability and conflict.
One respondent argued that “by 2025 more than 900/dof the world’s population will
be in the current Third World”-which will be expanding rapidly to swamp richer
nations economically and politically.

This is the most important issue, and it will become more dangerous. . . The gap
between rich and poor is getting larger in richer countries too. For example, there are
50 million poor people in Europe. . . . The main contradiction of the 20th century was
between socialism and capitalism; in the 21st century, it will be between the poor and
rich during the emergence of the knowledge-based society. . . . The survival instinct is
basic. If this gap is not addressed, migration of the poor to the rich seems inevitable.
. . . If this continues, the richer countries could become unstable and move into economic
depression, and hence poorer regions would not be able to earn income from exports,
causing a global collapse. . . . The problem is that the rate of economic growth has not
been enough. . . . Five factors determine poverty: (1) participation-people must be
involved in finding the solutions to their problems; (2) access to resources-land, capital,
information; (3) degree of isolation-geographic, cultural, and telecommunication; (4)
stability-environmental, economic, and political; and (5) management of risk-the
death of a family member, an unwanted pregnancy, or a natural disaster can throw a
family into poverty. . . . Reduction of poverty makes the world a safer place. . There
is consensus already on how to reduce poverty, found in the World Bank report Progress
Report on Addressing Poverty. . . . Richer countries should either target assistance to
increase growth in poorer regions or be prepared for migrations from the poor to the
richer areas. (Note that Scandinavian countries such as Norway and Denmark have the
highest per capita foreign aid programs and no one complains that immigrants are not
allowed in their country). . . . The gap does not have to lead to instability. The gap
between the very rich and very poor is wide in the United States, but it is a stable
country. Yet gaps can serve as a reason or excuse for instability. . It is not so much
governments, UN organizations, corporations, NGOs, individuals, and groups shaping
the world, but economic and financial forces. . . . Governance is based on the nation-
state, while economy is based on the corporation. Governance wants to set rules and
has to address all the people, while business wants to avoid rules and get the lowest
labor rates. A new social contract between government and corporate interests needs
to be created. . . Contradictory donor rules restrict local freedom and flexibility of
responding to local conditions. . . Since World War II, the gap has gotten wider,
but without foreign aid it might have been even worse. Although there have been
improvements in reducing the birth rate and infant mortality, the economic disparities
are scandalous. . This cannot be solved by means of assistance; poor countries have
to want to learn and to change their lives. . . . Definitions of rich and poor vary by
country and situation. Measuring everybody with the same “fuzzy” standard can lead
to wrong conclusions from faulty premises.
Actions to Address Issue 3, with a Range of Views on these Actions

23.1. NGOS WITH SUPPORT FROM GOVERNMENT SHOULD EXPAND MICROCREDIT
MECHANISMS WITH BANKS, NGOS, AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
TO ACCELERATE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL-SCALE BUSINESSES. This is beginning
to work. The Microcredit Summit (February 1997 in Washington, DC) will bring
more attention and understanding of the importance of this issue to the future of the
world, but the important part is the implementation of plans of actions resulting from
the summit. . . Promote exchange of best practices among microcredit managers.
This is very practical as an effective micro policy, but poorer nations must establish the
macro policy to accelerate economic growth as a top priority. . Add new venture capital
systems (with auditing systems outside the country to avoid political manipulation) that
can accept longer payback periods and smaller returns than the conventional venture
capital. Add incubators for small business. . . . The World Bank and the regional banks
should increase their activities in microcredit and involve microbusiness entrepreneurs
in their programs. . . Before new microcredit is provided on a wholesale basis to
countries, conditions should be attached that improve democratic governance, training,
and education. . . . Expand without international financial institutions if possible.
Taiwan reached economic success through small business, but Korea transformed its
economy through larger enterprises. . . The key is to include agricultural credit so that
the farmers can buy fertilizer. We are clearly going to need more food; just think what
would happen if everybody in China simply increased their food intake by 100 calories.
. . Technical assistance in agriculture, processing industries. and management training
must go along with credit.
2.3.2. GOVERNMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD CREATE
AND IMPLEMENT A NEW KIND OF “GLOBAL MARSHALL PLAN” AS A PARTNERSHIP
OR COLLABORATION BETWEEN HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES AND THOSE WITH LESS
INDUSTRIAL AND ENTREPRENEURIAL CULTURES. The name “Global Marshall Plan”
sends shivers all over the world, but this concept is a new kind of plan because it is a
partnership. The way it is written here is good and can work. Maybe it should be called
a “global partnership for development.” . . This should be the new role for reorganized
Bretton Woods Organizations in cooperation with the Organization for Economic Coop-
eration and Development (OECD) and UN organizations. . . . To be powerful, the plan
has to be based on more than humanitarian instincts. This effort should be seen by
poorer countries to be in their interests, yielding increased stability and growing markets.
Foreign aid has been discredited as an instrument of the Cold War. and as donor
governments are cutting domestic spending, how can they increase foreign spending?
Increase international trade and investment instead. . . . Include a new social contract
between business and government. . . . The previous Marshall Plan worked because
Germany and Japan had an entrepreneurial and industrial culture that could manage
the inflow of capital; poorer regions in Africa do not have this culture. . . . The plan
has to be flexible for different conditions in different countries, must focus on the poor
majority, and should manage boundless appetite versus restricted resources. The plan
should be started by the establishment of a “brain center,” something like a Club of
Rome. Then the plan should be adopted by the relevant implementing organizations
in the UN, NGOs, etc. International resources should be allocated by the plan, and a
mechanism to distribute funds and regulate implementation needs to be established to
keep organized crime and monopolies from capturing these resources. . . UNDP should
play a key role. . Since the rich have more to lose than the poor-if the gap leads
to instability and migrations to richer areas-then the rich should see this plan as
insurance. Both the rich and the poor have to change their minds to make this work:
the rich have to be serious about investing in the development of culture in poorer
areas and the poor have to be willing to change. International organizations should be
active in preparing the intellectual background for implementation of this global plan.
. . Historically, the Marshall Plan was only for a couple of countries and targeted to
limited problems: it was not conceived as a global plan. This action would be more
successful if it targeted a limited number of countries.
2.3.3. GOVERNMENTS OF LOWER INCOME COUNTRIES SHOULD INCLUDE ENTRE-
PRENEURIAL SKILLS AND BUSINESS MATH IN THEIR PUBLIC EDUCATION CURRICU-
LUM. WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM NGOS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS.
Much training of entrepreneurs has been done, but we have not put the skills in the
public curriculum yet; we will think about doing that. This is a good idea and would
be another step forward. . Government should support this but not lead; government
leadership comes first by agreeing to increase the economic growth. In Latin America
and the Caribbean, the growth should average 6%, but it is only averaging 3%, which
is insufficient progress to ensure a more stable future and to reduce poverty in a
sustainable manner. Economic growth by entrepreneurs creates the jobs. . . . Include
technological change as part of this. . Math skills should also be taught to small
business entrepreneurs and middle management. . Middle- and high-income countries
need this too. Include interaction/communications between rich and poor, languages,
and global ethics in the curriculum. . . Some countries are already doing this.
2.3.4. GOVERNMENTS AND UN ORGANIZATIONS ACCELERATE PROGRAMS THAT
ARRANGE FOR THE PROVISION OF LOW-COST COMPUTER COMMUNICATIONS EQUIP-
MENT AND TRAINING IN SCHOOLS, LIBRARIES, BUSINESS, AND HOSPITALS IN LOW-
INCOME AREAS. UNDP’s informatics programs in Africa teach people how to use
the Internet. Provision of the low-cost tools is the next step. We encourage the private
sector to help also. . Make sure that the equipment gets into schools and that more
is spent for education.
2.3.5. GOVERNMENTS AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD CREATE
TOLL-FREE NUMBERS AND COMPUTER NETWORKS FOR PEOPLE FROM LOW-INCOME
COUNTRIES WHO NOW LIVE IN HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES TO VOLUNTEER SOMETIME
TO PARTICIPATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THEIR ORIGINAL COUNTRY VIA TELE-
COMMUNICATIONS. This could be the next generation of our work. . . . Good if very
low-cost equipment is available to the developing country. . . . A very good idea to
counter the “brain drain”. . . . Make it more clear that this is not simply job-matching
to get people to come home. . . . Argentina and Jamaica are now exploring this.
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 21.i
2.3.6. TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORPORATIONS. IN COLLABORATION WITH NGOS,

SHOULD CREATE LOW-COST, HAND-HELD COMPUTERS WLTH DIRECT SATELLITE AC-
CESS FOR LOW-INCOME REGIONS TO ACCESS EDUCATIONAL SOFTWARE AND TELE-
PHONY, WITH ELEMENTARY LITERACY AS THE FIRST PRIORITY. It will spread rapidly
and cut across systems, like the hand calculator did. . . . Make sure all schools can get
access, not just the poor ones. . . . Create a mentoring system to make it work.
Actions 2.3.5 and 2.3.6 are mutually reinforcing. . This action is necessary for a
healthy global economy. . . . Make sure it is not just for the elite.
2.3.7. GOVERNMENTS, WITH ASSISTANCE FROM UN ORGANIZATIONS. SHOULD
ENCOURAGE THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES TO ESTABLISH LIMIT‘THEIR
POLICIES THAT
“BRAIN DRAIN.” With global communications, advanced work like software develop-
ment in India can be imported as a kind of “reverse brain drain” to create work that
is worth doing. . . . Action 2.3.5 can help. . . . UNDP’s governance programs give
financial incentives to reverse the brain drain. . This requires political changes in
Africa. . . . Handle with extreme caution. Corporations and NGOs can help.
This is not a policy; it is an economic issue. . Include capital flight. Brain drain
is an old and weak concept-social mobility is important because it gives people the
flexibility and freedom to come and go in the new global economy.
2.3X*’ GOVERNMENTS SHOULD GIVE MORE OFFICIAL DEVELOPMEN-I AID 10
NGOS. Without a long-range vision, there is no point to more aid. . This is not likely
because foreign aid is being cut back. . . . Vision would have to come from the NGOs.
. Maybe this action would be possible as part of the new Global Marshall Plan in
action 2.3.2.
2.3.9. GOVERNMENTS, WITH ADVICE FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS.
SHOULD PERMIT THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF) TO ISSUE NEW SPE-
CIAL DRAWING RIGHTS (SDRS) TO REDUCE DEVELOPING The IMF
COUNTRY DEBT.
has been working on this for the past 3 years. It will happen, but most new SDRs will
be given to the new member countries emerging from centrally planned economies.
UNDP has supported this view, but the new IMF-World Bank facility is not enough.
This should be considered more seriously. . . This is much better than simply declaring
bankruptcy or forgiving debt. . . . Need more details about this, but it seems it would
make the IMF the new central bank, and who gives permission for this?. . The IMF
sits on too much money. . The IMF should be abolished.
2.3.10. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANI-
ZATIONS, SHOULD INCREASE EFFORTS TO PROMOTE FREE TRADE AMONG DEVEL-
OPED AND DEVELOPING This should be the top priority instead of aid.
COUNTRIES.
. The IMF, World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank Group, and the OECD
are closely working on policy designs to improve free trade within the G-7 framework.
. . Should be part of the new “Global Marshall Plan” or “global partnership for
development.“. . . Make it “managed trade”; real free trade does not happen. In “managed
trade,” everyone has the right to participate in the management of trade. There is
not much in low-income countries to attract capital; hence, a free-market economy,
privatization, and free trade have little value to them. However. these policies are
obviously very effective where there is some value upon which to build. We have
to get used to the loss of preferences due to the Uruguay Round.
*Actions which were judged undesirable from the interviews. hut are kept here to show what the views
are and why it might not be pursued or how it would have to be changed to make it more effective. IAlso
explained in Footnote 3.1
‘Actions with an asterisk were judged undesirable from the interviews, but are kept here to show what
the views are and why it might not be pursued or how it would have to be changed to make it more effective.
2.3.11.* GOVERNMENTS AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR SHOULD CREATE AN INTER-

NATIONAL COMPUTERIZED BARTER EXCHANGE, ENABLING THOSE COUNTRIES
WITH RESOURCES BUT LITTLE MONEY To PARTICIPATE IN TRADE. This is already
going on in a self-organized fashion. . . . Some NGOs have done this on a limited basis.
. . . If people want it, they will figure out how to arrange for it. . . . A formal system
would be fought by financial institutions.
2.3.12. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FRBh4 GOV-
ERNMENTS, SHOULD STUDY THE FEASIBILITY OF A GLOBAL TAX STRUCTURE THAT
IS UNBIASED BETWEEN RICH COUNTRIES AND POOR ONES. The IMF and the World
Bank Group are studying this now, but it may take decades to implement the recommen-
dations. . . . Study desirability first, then feasability. . . . Include both agrarian and tax
reforms. For example, the US-forced agrarian reforms on Japan and Korea accelerated
growth, as did locally initiated agrarian reforms in Taiwan.
2.3.13. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND GOVERNMENTS SHOULD CREATE
A “GLOBAL SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION” TO HELP TAME CURRENCY
MARKETS. Crucial to create, but very difficult to complete. The Bretton Woods
institutions should take the leadership and responsibility for this. If not, then a new
international organization will be needed for capital flows, monitoring, and policy. If
the IMF is reorganized, then this should be a major focus for it. . . . Consider a tax on
currency transactions. . . . No, it’s not going to happen.
2.3.14.* INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY GOVERN-
MENTS, SHOULD CREATE A NEW FOREIGN EXCHANGE AS A PUBLIC UTILITY, OWNED
BY CENTRAL BANKS. This is inflationary; it will not fly. . . . Central banks are the
world’s primary inflation fighters. . . There is a problem of backing currency. . . . The
UN should not be involved. =.%
2.3.1.5. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND GOVERNMENTS SHOULD ESTAB-
LISH A MEANS BY WHICH DEEPLY INDEBTED COUNTRIES COULD DECLARE BANK-
RUPTCY. The UN Trusteeship should be recreated, not to go back to colonialism, but
to suspend statehood of failed states until their financial situation improves. . . . For
25-30 countries, the aggregate amount of debt is not that much. . . . Some work is being
done on this now; discussions are increasing to accelerate this action. . . . I prefer the
term “workout” to bankruptcy. . . . There should be an implicit, nonwritten agreement
among the relevant countries not to pay the external debt. . . . Forgiving debt will not
work.. . . This action could lead to dependency on the rich. Instead, create some burden-
sharing between the lender and debt nations.
Additional Actions to Address Issue 3

Get the world to agree that economic growth is the common goal. There is a
consensus about how to fight poverty (see Pursuit of Sustainable Poverty Reduction by
the International Development Association [IDA] or Poverty Reduction and the World
Bank by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [IBRD]). . . .
Get multilateral organizations to support governments in getting the world to understand
this. . . . As yet, there is no consensus among economists about how to create growth.
. . . We need to acknowledge this problem and go beyond discussing data. . . . Discuss
macro policies as well as micro policies. . . Increase competition and liberalize trade
regulations. . . . Since it is not possible for all to have the living standards of the rich,
we have to create a new approach to this problem-a new view of evolution, including
new definitions of wealth. . . . Increase local participation in development decisions, as
the policy of Shrouk is doing in Egypt. . , Give more attention to solving problems
locally, with local strategies, tactics, and resources, rather than just seeing international
actions as the solution to problems. . . The focus of development strategy should be
debt and trade. . . . Poor countries have to sort out their own mess; the role of international
agencies should be that of enablers. The techniques of fast growth are now well estab-
lished, based on the Southeast Asian experience, which is now being followed in South
America. As a result, the problems of these countries are declining, even in Africa.
The remaining problems are kleptocrats, rulers who plunder their countries’ treasuries:
Nigeria does not really have the foreign debt it is supposed to, but the balancing entry
is in the form of Swiss bank accounts and real estate in London. Encourage juridical
thinking that can be transformed into pertinent legislative formulation within the interna-
tional instrumentations already existing for the protection of human rights.. . . Although
the perceived gap in living standards is exacerbated by improving global communications,
these same telecommunications capabilities can play a role in addressing this issue. For
example, telemedicine and tele-education can significantly help reduce the actual gap
in living standards. . . . China’s economic growing success came from 1) preferential
tax policies and movement of talented persons to more productive locations: 2) rationale
to capital investment with some preferential policies for the poorer areas: 3) integration
and communication of experiences; and 4) the organization of resources and techniques
into enterprise groups. . . . Eliminating the gap between rich and poor countries cannot
be done by redistribution of resources, but by completing the organization of their
economies and educational systems, which is now underway. Set government policies
in Latin America and the Caribbean to achieve 6% annual economic growth; spend
more on people (education, health, and women). . No. this would reduce incentive
to improve national economic policy. . Increased income, taxed from the market,
should pay social expenses to protect fundamental social and economic rights and enable
the protection of human dignity. . . . Study how to deal with tax evasion in developing
countries. . . Develop new concepts of redistribution.
2.4. THE THREAT OF NEW AND RE-EMERGING DISEASES AND IMMUNE

MICRO-ORGANISMS IS GROWING
Recent outbreaks of bubonic plague in India, ebola virus in Africa, and drug-
resistant tuberculosis (TB) in the United States is causing the world to rethink its public
health policies. Increasing mass migrations and international travel spread disease more
rapidly than in the past; increasing urbanization and population density accelerate and
intensify this problem. Furthermore, the widespread use of antibiotics has resulted in
the evolution of micro-organisms that are resistant to antibiotic treatment.
According to US Congressional testimony on April 25. 1996, by Chuck Woolery
of the National Council for International Health “Infectious diseases spreading in US
hospitals kill more people each year than all Americans killed in Vietnam. The
heaviest concentration of pathogens is found in the developing world. . . The progress
of pathogens to adapt to our arsenal of medicines promises to be the fight of our species.
. . . It is a trend that holds the capacity to bring life as we know it to a grinding halt.
. . . A handful of microbes can be stopped at the border. but the vast majority cannot.”
The threat of biological terrorism is now plausible.

This issue is a matter of national security. . . . Travel is easy and diseases respect
no borders. . Doctors prescribe too many antibiotics and people don’t take all of
their prescriptions; both are responsible for the resistance to antibiotics that we’re
seeing. TB was under control for a long time. It’s re-emerging now because poor people
are undernourished, live in poor shelters, and live in close proximity. . . . TB is the
single largest killer of AIDS patients. . . . The US let its guard down; surveillance of
public heath is not as good as it used to be when the US was monitoring for polio and
smallpox. . . . It is hard to prepare for new pathogens, as a great deal is apt to change.
. . Life is a race between species and their predators, which will never stop. We will
never cure all diseases. In any case, the pharmaceutical industry won’t go away. But
the doom and gloom merchants are wrong-and, even if the sort of disaster they describe
does strike, there is nothing we could do about it, so there is no point in planning for it!

2.4.1. THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION (WHO), WITH SOME ASSISTANCE
FROM GOVERNMENT AGENCIES (SUCH AS THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND
PREVENTION [CDC]) SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND THE GLOBAL NETWORK
OF COLLABORATING LABORATORIES TO CREATE AN EFFECTIVE GLOBAL SURVEIL-
LANCE SYSTEM FOR EMERGING VIRUSES AND INFECTIONS. In addition to using the
latest in satellites and information technology, WHO should also act as a cheerleader for
and coordinator of other UN organizations and government efforts. It is too dangerous to
repeat the mistakes of the past. . . . We should ask what it took to get mobilized to
wipe out smallpox. . . . How can we expect UN activity when the US doesn’t pay its
bill? The US and other civilized countries have to recognize the threat.
2.4.2. WHO, WITH STRONG GOVERNMENT SUPPORT, SHOULD INCREASE FUNDING
AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FOR THE GLOBAL PROGRAM ON VACCINES TO ENSURE
MAXIMUM COVERAGE IS OBTAINED WITH EXISTING ANTIGENS AND THAT RESEARCH
AND DEVELOPMENT IS INTENSIFIED FOR OTHER POSSIBLE VACCINES AND IMMUNI-
ZATIONS (SUCH AS FOR MALARIA). The reason pharmaceutical companies are not
putting more effort into antibiotics and vaccines is simply concern over liability. Liability
is the big impediment. Protease inhibitors may represent a new strategy.
2.43. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SUPPORT BY UN ORGANIZATIONS, SHOULD INCREASE
FUNDING FOR SAFE WATER SUPPLY PROJECTS. A more detailed discussion appears
above in Issue 2.2. . Public health experts have to understand what’s safe and not
seek water supplies that are totally free of pollutants. It’s a balance between what causes
disease and cost. To eliminate all possible pollutants is very costly.
2.4.4 WHO, WITH ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY GOVERNMENTS, SHOULD CREATE
A RAPID INTERNATIONAL MEDICAL DEPLOYMENT CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO OUT-
BREAKS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE WITH EPIDEMIC POTENTIAL.
2.4.5. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SUPPORT FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS,
SHOULD INCREASE THE FUNDING AND CAPACITY OF SUCH AGENCIES AS THE CDC,
UNITED STATES AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (USAID), WHO, AND
OTHER INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL AGENCIES, TO BETTER COLLABORATE WITH
COUNTRIES IN STRENGTHENING NATIONAL DISEASE SURVEILLANCE AND CON-
TROL SYSTEMS.
2.4.6. WHO, WITH NATIONAL LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT BY GOVERN-
MENTS, SHOULD FOCUS INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION AND FUNDING ON THOSE DIS-
EASES THAT HAVE BEEN TARGETED BY THE WORLD HEALTH ASSEMBLY FOR ERADI-
CATION OR ELIMINATION AS PUBLIC HEALTH PROBLEMS (POLIO, MEASLES, GUINEA
WORM. AND LEPROSY).
2.4.7. CORPORATIONS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY GOVERNMENTS, SHOULD INI-
TIATE INTENSIFIED RESEARCH INTO SECOND-GENERATION ANTIBIOTICS. ISSUES OF
LIABILITY THAT ARE PREVENTING CORPORATE INITIATIVES HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED.
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 2 I0
2.4.8.GOVERNMENTS, NGOS, AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD CO-

OPERATE IN TRAINING, CREDIT, AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FOR SMALL AND MI-
CROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TO IMPROVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN POORER
COUNTRIES AND THUS IMPROVE THE STANDARD OF LIV’ING.
Additional Actions for Issue 4

Promote telemedicine initiatives to bring the best medical knowledge to all areas
of the world and significantly improve the responsiveness of the medical system to
critical areas. . . Understand more about the relationship between disease and ecology
(both external environment and internal ecology of genes) and between disease and
genetics (including the mechanism for rapid adaptation to new strengths and mutation).
. . . Use a variety of media to establish religious and cultural values to reinforce good
health practices to reduce the impact of this issue. . Increase monitoring. research
etiologies. and new drugs.
2.S.THERE IS A DIMINISHING CAPACITY TO DECIDE AS ISSllES BECOME MORE GLOBAL

AND COMPLEX UNDER CONDITIONS OF INCREASING LJNCERTAINTY AND RISK
There is an increasing need for effective global decision-making. responsibility
(especially moral responsibility). action, and results. Today many believe it is possible
to shape the future rather than simply prepare for a future that is a linear extrapolation
of the present or a product of chance or fate. Yet globalization, complexity. number.
and frequency of choices seems to grow beyond the ability to know and decide. Skills
development in concept formulation and communications seems to be decreasing rela-
tive to the requirements of an increasingly complicated world.
The world’s technological base has expanded, and the conventional tools for dcci-
sion-making have advanced. Yet such “advancements” are poorly distributed, despite
the size and speed of computers and decision-making models. Facts are still elusive:
the moral bases for decision-making are rarely considered explicitly. Futures issues are
apt to be tougher than ever: global warming and the ability to modify human genetic
structure are two examples. Many people do not understand or trust science. Others
believe that there is far more to learn in physics and other disciplines and that the
frontiers of knowledge are unbounded. There may be a plethora of information, but
the question remains: how can humankind best incorporate such information into know-
edge, intelligence, and wisdom? With advancing media and computer processing, the
border between truth and fiction is less clear; the certainty of reality is disappearing
from our conception of the world.

This issue affects all others. The global agreement on chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) (Montreal Accords) shows that it is possible to reach important decisions that
have an impact even without complete data. The evolution of the European Union
(EU) has shown that supranational decision-making is possible. The UN is another
example. but with less effectiveness. . We do not lack increasingly sophisticated
computer systems: we lack the global ethical basis for decision-making. The crucial part
of education is wisdom over and beyond knowledge and information. . . . WC will cvolvc
using the principle of “subsidiarity”-decision-making at the level appropriate to the
problem. Some decision-making must be regional, like the EU: some international. like
the UN; and others decided nationally. . . Data, information, and intelligence have lo
match the scope of the problem. The number of players in decisions are increasing,
making decision-making more complex. How many people should answer the question:
does China have to be poor to save the world environment? If not, who guarantees
cleaner energy than that from current coal conversion? How many players are in on
that decision? We need a reward and punishment system to get more players in the
decision system. Increased participation in a decision process improves implementation
of decisions. . . . Making decisions among sovereign states is a central problem. Diplomats
tend to let things go until they become a crisis. We are increasingly faced with issues
that cut across national boundaries. Coordination among nation-states can be a way to
avoid making decisions. . . . The rain forest in Brazil is still shrinking, even though the
greatest international coordination efforts in history have been initiated by UNCED
in Brazil. . . . All international organizations will have to rethink their purpose and the
structure. The secretary-general of the UN has a clear mandate to implement change
in the UN system of organizations.. . . The classical models of development of equilibrium
systems could not explain the evolution of society on the threshold of the new millen-
nium. The world system is in transition to a new order of development. Today Russian
scientists collaborate with other European centers on complexity and chaos. . . . The
role of decision-maker is becoming more complex, as the world becomes more complex
and we have to make more trade-offs (among the various stakeholders). In addition,
decision-making is becoming more transparent. The leaders are not becoming worse,
but are facing greater challenges. We are becoming more of a self-organizing society,
but perhaps this was always the case; there was just an illusion that leaders were running
their hierarchies! What can a prime minister do? . . . It is not that there is a diminishing
role for government, but that the power of everyone else is increasing. At the Rio
Summit, Greenpeace was more powerful than most nations. The existence of interest
groups is very healthy; it just makes steering the correct course very hard. In terms of
leadership issues, one problem is the recent tendency to focus on specific issues, which
can lead to apparent paralysis. As an example, the EU agriculture ministers only talk
to each other, so the problem of farm subsidies is never examined in the context of
other issues (until the finance ministers meet in ECOFIN and are required to take an
overall view). The problem is that where there is uncertainty and no agreement, there
is no leadership. . The ability of evil individuals to cause harm is still great, but it is
getting less. In essence, we are now learning to make small fixes to small problems. . . .
Increasing complexity of decisions is also due to the increasing complexity of the
relationships among human beings. . . There is a contradiction between experts and
knowledge. . . . The most important problem is that policy-makers are not well qualified
and they base decisions on old dogma. Nonlinear modeling will help. . . This description
tends to focus on the problem, but knowledge and the ability to make decisions are
increasing. For example, using advanced techniques in atmospheric studies, fast informa-
tion collection, communication, data processing, and globalized and advanced instru-
ments, the forecasting level of and ability to deal with weather disasters are improving.
The world is learning quickly about problems and solutions, such as the issue of sustain-
able development. . . . How can one convince the world that the issues of terrorism
and the other issues in this study require global decisions?. . . This issue is fallacious
as stated. Critical decisions have always been made on the basis of less than perfect
knowledge and understanding. Nonetheless, the dramatic increase in scientific knowl-
edge and the ready access to news and information of all types place an added responsibil-
ity on decision-makers to be as thorough as possible in their deliberations. . . . I’m not
sure our capacity to decide was better in the past; it could be a myth. . , . Although
one problem is influenced by many factors, only a few are key factors.

25.1. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SUPPORT FROM NGOS, SHOULD INTEGRATE “HOW
TO LEARN TO LEARN” INTO EDUCATION SYSTEMS AND PROFESSIONAL TRAINING
PROGRAMS, ESTABLISHING THAT IT IS A PREREQUISITE TO LEARN ANYTHING TECH-
NICALLY OR SOCIALLY COMPLEX. Include teaching logic, local and global decision-
making, and the issues of sovereignty. . . . NGOs could create curriculum units that
simulate complex situations to teach decision-making skills and to learn from conse-
quences. . . Include families and corporations in the educational environment. .
There is a mismatch between what is being taught to people and what they need to
know. We should have a 20-year forecast and tailor curricula to those needs. . .
Adult decision-makers should be taught how to work with complexity, uncertainty, and
nonlinear processes.
2.5.2. GOVERNMENT SHOULD INTEGRATE CREATIVE AND NONLINEAR THINKING
INTO THE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS. It is important to learn early that nonlinear
systems are unstable at some points and stable at others; hence, people need not be
afraid to learn this way of thinking. . . . Include different theories about why systems
change. . . I’m not sure of the payoff for this action. It seems to me to be too academic.
2.5.3. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY NGOS. INDIVIDUALS. AND
GROUPS, SHOULD TEACH EFFECTIVE DECISION-MAKING, INCLUDING THE MORAL
BASIS FOR DECISIONS, THE NATURE OF RISK, AND METHODS FOR DEALING WITH
UNCERTAINTY. Incorporate this into all education levels. . . Advanced training in
effective decision-making should be directed to both government and private-sector
executives now. It is very important to teach decision-makers to understand the complex-
ity of problems; otherwise, their incompetence can lead to corruption. . . Globally,
NGOs could conduct training through the Internet and other information media. . . .
Comments on Action 2.5.1 also apply here.
25.4. NGOS, INDIVIDUALS. AND GROUPS, WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM GOVERN-
MENT, SHOULD EXPAND RESEARCH INTO NONLINEAR MODELING OF SOCIAL, POLIT-
CAL. AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS.
25.5. NGOS, INDIVIDUALS, AND GROUPS SHOULD INTRODUCE NEW FORMS OF
NOTATION TO REPRESENT EVOLVING COMPLEX CONCEPTS. INCLUDING UNCER-
TAINTY AND RISK, THAT CAN BE USED BY THE PUBLIC.
2.5.6. INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS SHOULD CELEBRATE THOSE CULTURAL STO-
RIES AND MYTHS THAT MAKE BASIC DISCOVERY EXCITING AND PROMOTE EXPERI-
MENTATION.
2.5.7. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD SUPPORT NGOS. INDIVIDUALS, AND GROUPS IN
COMPLETION OF THE HUMAN GENOME PROJECT AND RELATED BRAIN RESEARCH
PROJECTS, APPLY THE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO UNDERSTANDING OFBRAIN REASONING
AND DECISION PROCESSES, AND ULTIMATELY ENHANCE THE BRAIN’S ABILITY FOR
COMPLEX REASONING. I am not confident about this; I would prefer research on
external problems to the internal workings of the brain. Progress on computers is more
likely than progress on the brain. . . . In addition to supporting the genome project, it
is important to include the psychological differentiation of individuals in an attempt to
understand the diversity of the world.

Support research for innovations in expert software systems. . . . Study alternatives
to current definitions of national sovereignty. None of these actions attack the issue of
sovereignty head-on, such as creating a new definition of sovereignty and national
security. Is there a third alternative to a system of national sovereignty and global

government? Can sovereignty be shared? Would changing sovereignty undermine the
legal basis of the international system? Global authoritativeness-not world govern-
ment-is part of the solution. For example, without the authority to set English as the
language for all international airport control towers or the establishment of postal and
telecommunications agreements, we would have chaos. . . . We need to create a new
theory of life based on evolutionary theory, complexity, and chaos. This theory should
be clear for everybody. Contemporary research concludes that a new system of values
is a spontaneous adaptation of a society to the complexity of the consequences of its
actions. This new theory is important because the mentality of decision-makers depends
on the mentality of society. The inclusion of this new thought in the media is as important
as putting it into the curricula. Media should be responsible for their actions and should
value life as well as broadcast the complexity of the problems we face. . . . Create some
measures for standardization where possible, as well as expert software systems. . .
We should also look at the decrease in both genetic and cultural diversity as a result
of domination of mass culture, as well as the possibility of nonlinear changes. We need
to create more open international decision-making. . . . 99% of the world thinks only
of their country, but we need to think globally to solve the problems that are global.
. . . Consider complications of cooperation among terrorist groups and organized crime
in countries like Colombia and Peru. . . . The UN University (UNU) should provide
some leadership in increasing global thinking and the improvement of global decision-
making through its new Center on Leadership in Jordan. . . . Add transparency of
information in all considerations of this issue. . . Study the UNESCO report Learning:
The Treasure Within, a report from the International Commission on Education for the
Twenty-First Century. . . . Create a commonality of interests so that all participants
benefit by sharing. . . . Don’t stress the complexity of problems. . . The US ought to
pay its UN dues to help the changes succeed. . . . Reform democracies to curb influence
of money and special interest and widen citizen participation. Perfect the tools of de-
mocracy.
2.6. TERRORISM IS INCREASINGLY DESTRUCTIVE, PROLIFERATING, AND

DIFFICULT TO PREVENT
In addition to conventional explosives, chemical weapons, and computer viruses,
other weapons that may become available to terrorists include nuclear and biological
weapons, making the threat increasingly ominous. The arsenals of the US, Russia, and
many other nations contain biological and chemical weapons that have massive killing
potential. These materials need not be stolen, since their manufacture requires easily
obtainable raw materials and conventional technology. Potential relations of terrorist
groups with globally organized crime extend the reach of terrorism.
Within the last 3 years, Chechen groups may have been involved in the theft of 6
kg of enriched uranium, recovered in Istanbul. The Czech government intercepted a
shipment of 3.2 kg of enriched uranium from a nuclear smuggling ring; the German
government found 0.21 kg of plutonium in Munich on a Lufthansa plane from Moscow.
German authorities reported 276 nuclear smuggling incidents in 1994.
Future biological weapons might be directed against a particular group so that only
certain people would be affected by the weapon. This could be a guided bioweapon
that would use genetic information to target biological weapons against people with
specific genetic characteristics. Large-scale Internet terrorism might lead to the call for
“cyber cops”-a new police role.

Terrorism has been a permanent element in history, but after the fall of the Soviet
Union, terrorism has become the issue of major concern for humankind. . . . There is
legitimate terrorism when all else fails. How do we distinguish justified from unjustified
terrorism‘?. . . . We need a mechanism to understand and acknowledge previous wrongs.
. . . Terrorism is a virus that is growing. No global system exists to stop it. Anti-terrorism
centers exist, but they are underfunded.

2.6.1. GOVERNMENTS WITH ADVICE FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
SHOULD TIGHTEN LAWS, REGULATIONS, AND INSPECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SECU-
RITY OF NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL STOCKS. The Comprehensive Test
Ban Treaty and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are the principal vehicles upon
which to build. . . . It will require sanctions against countries and groups that do not
cooperate and special networks of cooperation among those countries that are targets
of terrorism. Different ideological and political interests would have to be overcome
for cooperation among national intelligence agencies. . . The ultimate sanction, if a
nation were to develop nuclear weapons illegally, would be to bomb their facilities.
Despite the NPT’s call for disarmament, many policy-makers within the nuclear powers
consider these weapons as a guarantee for peace and stability. . . . This action should
be based on an international strategy including 1) databases of people connected with
these materials; 2) standards for management of these materials and common interna-
tional training of personnel so that each knows what his/her counterparts will be doing
in a critical situation; 3) rules of storage, control, and displacement of nuclear, chemical.
and biological stocks; and 4) ratification of these three elements by member countries
of the UN. . . We have to put teeth behind the UN. It is the only worldwide organization
that can act here. The nations that owe money to the UN should pay their debt.
Why would terrorists want to use weapons of mass destruction? If terrorists want to
gain support or sympathy for their agenda, they shouldn’t take a path that would result
in killing millions of people. Imagine world reaction if terrorists had managed to kill
5000 people in the poison-gas attack in Japan. 7 In such a case, the law enforcement
apparatus in Japan would have been joined by law enforcement everywhere. Therefore,
rational terrorists would not be likely candidates to use weapons of mass destruction.
But we have irrational terrorists. It has been possible for many years for small groups
to build chemical and biological weapons. Fortunately. terrorist attacks using such
weapons have not happened. However, the past is not necessarily a predictor of the
future. . . The first three actions to address this issue deal with consequences, not the
fundamental causes of terrorism.
2.6.2.GOVERNMENTS, IN COOPERATION WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS.
SHOULD DESTROY EXISTING STOCKPILES OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. Gorbachev
agreed to this, but it was not done. The development of biological weapons was stopped,
but this could start at any moment again. . . Create common international rules of
storage and control of biological weapons and have them ratified by UN members. .411
countries should inform a special organization of the UN about any operations with
these weapons. The UN should create mechanisms to influence countries that do not
follow the rules. Biological weapons are more frightening than nuclear or chemical
weapons: they are exceedingly easy to manufacture, and there is no good reliable way
to detect their production. . . . Destroying stockpiles of biological weapons sounds good.
but how do we detect the stockpiles? No proposals are satisfactory. Verification is a
good idea. Inspectors can validate plants that have been discovered and closed, but
good faith is not enough. Chemical plants are more obvious than biological plants.
Monitoring raw material inputs won’t work. There is no reliable way to contain this issue.
2.6.3. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD AT LEAST DOUBLE THE AMOUNT OF FUNDING
DEVOTED TO PROTECTION AGAINST TERRORIST ACTS, SUCH AS AIRPORT SECURITY.
More effective would be old-fashioned spying-infiltrate organizations at the highest
level. Get the information to prevent this threat. . . In addition to airports, include
subways, railway stations, and seaports. . . . If we are concerned about big issues,
smuggling of nuclear material or biological materials raises concern about destroying
many more people than just a plane-load. The choice for delivery of a terrorist nuclear
weapon would be a truck or van-or a cargo container. Biological weapons, on the
other hand, would be essentially undetectable. . . . Funding is increasing for this now.
. . . Countries with more resources must cooperate with those with fewer resources.
2.6.4. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL,
SHOULD EXPAND COORDINATION AND COOPERATION AMONG NATIONS (ESPE-
CIALLY AMONG THOSE THAT MIGHT NOT NORMALLY COOPERATE) REGARDING
INFORMATION, EARLY WARNING, APPREHENSION, AND PUNISHMENT OF TERRORISTS.
This would be the most effective action to address the issue. . . . How should we react
to countries that give asylum to terrorists, under the argument of respect for human
rights? Asylum supports terrorist activities. The countries that tend to protect terrorists
are not able to control terrorists’ activities against other countries. . . . This policy implies
that all terrorism is wrong. Was terrorism against apartheid in South Africa wrong?
DEVOTED TO DETECTION, CAPTURE, AND PUNISHMZNT OF TERRORISTS, PERHAPS
SHIFTING FUNDS FROM CONVENTIONAL MILITARY TO ANTI-TERRORISM. This should
be done anyway. . . . This depends on the country. . . . Try the “rogue leaders” who
harbor terrorists in an international criminal court and televise the proceedings.
2.6.6. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD DEVELOP PROTECTION STRATEGIES FOR BIOLOGI-
CAL ATTACK. Reactions to this are the same as those listed under the action 2.6.1.
2.6.7. NGOS, WITH SUPPORT FROM GOVERNMENTS, SHOULD CREATE SOCIAL MAR-
KETING OR PUBLIC EDUCATION PROGRAMS THAT PROMOTE RESPECT AND TOLER-
ANCE FOR ETHNIC AND OTHER FORMS OF DIVERSITY. This is very important, but
be alert against the so-called “intolerance of the tolerant.” Under the appearance of
tolerance, they first permit and later promote pornography, drug consumption, and
other social illnesses. Freedom, yes-but not licentiousness.
2.6.8. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD PLAN TO BUILD RESILIENCE AND REDUNDANCIES
INTO SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTEMS TO AVOID POSSIBLE CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTIONS
(INCLUDING ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURES FROM INFO-TERRORISM). This should
be a top priority and should be done anyway.
2.6.9. NGOS AND UN ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD ESTABLISH AN OPEN FORUM FOR
DISCUSSION OF ISSUES THAT ENFLAME This is the most important
TERRORISTS.
action that needs to be developed further. Historic injustices of the parties should be
fully shared in public and discussed to reach acknowledgment and public apologies.
Without this, the hate continues from one generation to the next. . . . The UN Security
Council in April 1996 debated a proposal by over 30 international NGOs for an on-
line network of such conflict-resolution groups worldwide: Anticipatory Risk-Mitigation
Peace-Building Contingents (ARM-PC). The UN General Assembly in May 1996 re-
quested that the Security Council set up a similar system for a “humanitarian rapid
response” force. Norway announced million funding support for US$l million for this
in October 1996.

Eliminate all nuclear weapons. Increasing numbers of leaders think it is desirable
and possible for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons (as recommended by the
Canberra Commission) in the long term, if the will is there. If the US, United Kingdom,
France, and Russia would agree, then China would agree. Sufficient conventional force
would remain to address rogue states. . . . How to get the rightness of an oppressed
people’s position through to the dominant power? How to categorize acts of terrorism?
If the international community will not boycott or intervene in clear injustice, then
violence seems to be the only remaining strategy. . . . The criminal court needs interna-
tional agreement and authority to act. . . Consider media and education programs to
demonstrate alternatives to violence to solve problems. The international community
must come to an agreement about how to address “state terrorism.” . . UN organizations
should become increasingly involved in this issue by setting international standards of
behavior, regulations, and the legislative base to manage terrorism. . . It would be
helpful if the Millennium Project initiated a conference for the discussion of this problem
to bring together the strategies and then submit them to all countries and the UN to
start a dialogue.
2.7. THERE ARE ADVERSE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE GROWTH OF

POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY AND NATURAL RESOURCES
The current world population is about 5.9 billion and, according to UN projections,
may reach 10-12 billion by the middle of the next century. Although the population
growth rate is slowing, the numbers of people being added to the world every year are
higher than at any other time in history. As population concentrates, urban environmen-
tal problems intensify. Most countries are expected to increase economic growth and,
hence, consumption of natural resources and energy. UNCED concluded that economic
growth is necessary to reverse environmental damage and to find resource substitution.
Many countries have demonstrated that energy consumption need not grow in
direct proportion to economic growth, but huge growth is expected nonetheless as the
economies and populations of developing countries expand. Burning of indigenous coal
by China and India, for example, could add appreciably to the world’s pollution load.
(Note, however, that the developed countries consume more raw materials and energy
by far than the poorer countries are expected to do throughout the next century.) The
amount of raw material per unit of industrial production is falling.

With good policy, growth and improved environmental conditions can coexist. For
example, China’s forest coverage has increased 1% between 1985 and 1995 due to a
large-scale afforestation campaign during this period. . . Too many government policy-
makers are unqualified and make disastrous decisions based on myths that contributed
to ecologically dangerous areas. One myth was that the biosphere can only handle 1
billion people-but this depends on what the people do. Another was that natural
resources limit evolution-but novel technologies have beaten environmental limits and
new ones will be more efficient, placing less demand on natural resources, and will
prevent pollution. Linear Industrial-Age thinking also leads to these mistakes. . . . We
are making some progress in pollution control by such agreements as the Montreal
Protocol and the Vienna Pact, but much work has to be done. . . The private sector
in the poorer countries is too small to provide much leadership. . . . The population
rates are falling rapidly in most of the developing countries while they have declined
to the zero level in most of the developed regions. . As people’s wealth rises, pollution
increases, but as wealth increases, further pollution per capita drops because people
can pay for solutions. Waste is increasing rapidly, but this problem is solvable ultimately.
. . . Carbon dioxide looks like the longest term problem. . . There is almost infinite
substitutability. So the price mechanism will drive markets to the alternatives. . . . This
“environmental Kuznet’s curve” hypothesis is disputed. . . . The problem now is renew-
able resources, such as fish (in the global commons), food, etc. . Although pollution
would probably increase with rapid economic growth in Russia, the reverse is not true.
Pollution continued even when our economy shrank, owing to lack of control of industry
and old technology. The environment is not a priority at this time: the environmental
share of the Russian federal budget this year is 0.5%. The US spends five times more
on defense than environment; Russia spends 50 times more. . . . Per capita income will
increase for most people in the world; with such increases come greater consumption
of natural resources and energy.

2.7.1. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD INITIATE HIGHER TARIFFS OR TAXES ON POLLUT-
ING PRODUCTS OR TECHNOLOGIES, WITH THE REVENUES COLLECTED TO BE USED
TO SUBSIDIZE THE ACQUISITION OF ENVIRONMENTALLY SAFE TECHNOLOGIES. BY
THE SAME TOKEN, REDUCE IMPORT TARIFFS ON ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND TECH-
NOLOGIES, GOODS, AND EQUIPMENT. This would require changes in WTO rules to
implement. . . . Tariffs on trade should only be used on those environmental problems
that are truly global. Nations should set taxes commensurate with their local situation.
. . . Tariffs should reflect environmental costs. Pricing should include environmental
costs, but how to know these costs? We need a system of assessment of natural resources
and pollution’s effects on the environment, e.g., “net energy” and ecological footprint
analysis, as well as one for collection and distribution of money raised from this mecha-
nism. . . . In Russia there are no tariffs on imported “nature-oriented” technologies.
To tax polluting products will require better-educated government decision-makers and
a new ecological culture as a whole. . . . It’s a good idea, but impossible to implement
properly. There is no unified and realistic way to identify how much pollution each
product creates. It is hard to collect environmental pollution taxes now. Pollution taxes
set up the irresponsible idea that I have the right to pollute because I paid for it. . . .
Countries are in the process of considering this. . . . As we learn more, the likelihood
of this action’s implementation increases. . . . Use preferential policies rather than
punitive approaches and build the capacity of the public to make better environmental
decisions. . . . Also consider incentives to introduce less-polluting technologies and
production processes. . . . The income produced from these taxes and tariffs might
not go to subsidize the acquisition of environmentally safer technologies because of
corruption and inability to identify the technologies. However, I agree that we should
take leadership on this issue and begin working on legislation about “ecological security.”
2.7.2. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND
IN COOPERATION WITH SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, SHOULD INCLUDE ENVIRONMENTAL
COSTS IN THE PRICING OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND PRODUCTS. Economic and
environmental policy should be created together as a sustainable economic policy. This
is very good, but very difficult to implement properly. How do you measure the costs?
. . . Include the cost in destruction of resources. . Corporations will fight it. . . . It is

partly realized in some parts of our country, and we are taking leadership to continue
implementation. It is included in the Annual State Report (Russia) and in the president’s
decree about the model of sustainable development. But most of the implementation
of this action is only on paper. . . Governments don’t control the prices; the global
market and cartels control the prices of natural resources. Adjust the production
systems instead. . . . This action will kill our industry; it is an absurdity. . There is
no close relation between pollution and profit.
2.7.3. UN ORGANIZATIONS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY GOVERNMENTS, SHOIJLD
ESTABLISH AN INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY BANK, FUNDED BY COUNTRY
PLEDGES, THAT COULD ACQUIRE THE RIGHTS TO INNOVATIVE ‘GREEN” TECHNOLO-
GIES SO AS TO MAKE THEM MORE EASILY AVAILABLE To ENVIRONMENTALLY LESS-
ADVANTAGED COUNTRIES. The bank should focus first on the most ecologically
dangerous regions. . . . Such a bank should have direct links to corporations. . The
first step has been taken with the Global Ecology Fund and with the Global Environmen-
tal Facility. The African Development Bank could open a section to address this
issue. . . This will work when the problems are considered urgent enough. . . Most
Chinese people instinctively think that the developed countries’ objective in these kinds
of issues is to suppress the economic success of poorer countries. For this reason. UN
organizations are the best mechanisms to implement this. Such a bank makes sense,
but not under the UN. . . Governments should stay away from control to avoid
corruption. . . . The World Bank, UNDP, etc., have taken some actions in this direction,
although it is not very realistic to prevent pollution. Instead, perfect relevant regulations
and laws for family planning, natural resources utilization, waste recycling, and environ-
mental protection.
2.7.4. GOVERNMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD CON-
TINUE TO SUPPORT AND PROMOTE ALL MODES OF FAMILY PLANNING BY SIJBSIDIZ-
ING AND DISTRIBUTING CONTRACEPTIVES AND BY PROMOTING PROGRAMS TO IM-
PROVE HEALTH CARE, TO DIMINISH INFANT MORTALITY. TO IMPROVE LITERACY.
AND TO INVOLVE WOMEN IN THE MONETARY ECONOMY. The development of
education and the improvement of the quality of life is the most effective policy: that
leads to other solutions. This focus, rather than the speed of population reduction, is
more essential. . . . This action is a top priority of the Ghana Vision 2020 framework
for policy, but there is conflict over giving condoms to children; we don’t want to
encourage the sexual activity of youth, yet TV programming promotes sexual activity.
. There is no substitute for economic growth. . . Religious opposition and political
rivalry prevent this from being more effective.
2.75. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANI-
ZATIONS. SHOULD ESTABLISH A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS THAT INCLCJDES
THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE DEPLETION OF NATURAL RESOURCES. This will
work. but the problems are not yet considered urgent enough.. . Although not organized
like this excellent action suggests, some countries have begun policy changes in this
direction, such as banning export of some tree species. . There are great difficulties
in establishing neutral measures for this. . Instead, consider the establishment of a
sustainable development index that takes nature, society, and the economy into consid-
eration.
2.7.6. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR,
SHOULD ENCOURAGE PLACEMENT OF LABELS ON ALL CONSUMER PRODUCTS AND
OPEN INFORMATION THAT INDICATES WHETHER THEY HAVE BEEN PRODIJCED IN
A SUSTAINABLE MANNER. Labeling is good, but difficult for developing countries’

trade. Although it seems very reasonable, lower-income countries do not know how to
judge this and would need external assistance. The definition and measurements neces-
sary to carry this out are not now possible. . . . It won’t work-too easy to exploit for
protection of domestic products and discrimination against competing products. . . .
WTO rules need changing to implement.
2.7.7. GOVERNMENTS, IN COOPERATION WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS,
SHOULD ENCOURAGE NATIONS, PERHAPS THROUGH TREATIES, TO ABOLISH ENVI-
RONMENTALLY INEFFICIENT SUBSIDIES. This will work once an international consen-
sus is reached on the definitions of environmentally inefficient subsidies. . . . It is essential
to eliminate subsidies. . . . Our government would like to cooperate on this. . . . This
action is difficult to implement, but that is the current direction. . . . Methodologies for
assessing environmental efficiency include “net energy” and “ecological footprint
analysis.”
2.7.8. GOVERNMENTS, IN COOPERATION WITH UN ORGANIZATIONS, SHOULD CRE-
ATE TRADEABLE POLLUTION PERMITS THAT FIX GLOBAL EMISSION LIMITS FOR
COUNTRIES OR INDUSTRIAL SECTORS. This is very reasonable and will work once
target emissions are established. The automobile industry established Partners for a
New Generation of Vehicles as a private industry research consortium. Could this action
divert funds from consortia like this? . . . This won’t work until we know what criteria
and standards are to be used for these permits and who determines what is polluting
and what are the acceptable or tolerable limits. . . . Make sure this does not favor
obsolete plants and technologies and retard innovation.
2.7.9.* GOVERNMENTS SHOULD EMPHASIZE PROGRAMS THAT PROMOTE POPULA-
TION DISPERSION AND SLOW URBANIZATION; THIS INCLUDES LOCATING NEW PRO-
DUCTION PLANTS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE. Make small farming more profitable, make
new laws to get more land to people, change tribal control of land, expand small-scale
manufacturing, electricity, roads, cellular or direct satellite telephony in the rural area.
The Grameen Bank in Bangladesh is now selling cellular radios to microenterprises in
rural areas to improve their business growth. . . . Consider actions that make it more
expensive to be congested. . . . Urbanization is great for ecology, reduces fertility rates,
and provides more efficient use of energy and transportation. You have to ask why
people flee to the city. . . . It’s better to concentrate on factories favorable for recycling
and treatment. . . . Make combinations of factories that can use the waste of one as
the resource for another. . . . Urbanization and industrialization have a positive role in
helping rural people to get rid of poverty. Instead, encourage environmentally sound
urbanization through ecologically oriented management principals. . . Aggregation of
population is easier to manage. . . . Reruralization is not likely to work because it will
lead to considerable hardships, arbitrary interventions, high costs, and corruption.

Add more incentives in this list of actions to attract people to create environmentally
sustainable growth. Add positive collaboration among government, industry, and the
public as a motivation toward improving behavior and the better use of technology.
. . . The Millennium Project could help by advancing a new vision of the complex
interactions among population, economic growth, environment, and resources. This
helps break away from the dogmas and myths. A new ecological paradigm should be
developed as well as forming a new model of the knowledge-based society. . . Improve
environmental and ecological consciousness. . . . It is essential to build trust among
nations so that policies are not seen as one taking advantage of the other. This will
require very powerful educational efforts. . . . From an ecological engineering view, it
is better to deal with wastes and pollutants in a limited region with a phased approach
in the management of wastes. . . . Owing to the Cultural Revolution, China did not
participate in the international debate about growth in the 1970s. As a result, it is just
now learning the lessons it missed. . . . The list only has economic control measures.
. . . Actions 2.7.1 to 2.7.3 are merely technical approaches that are not wrong, but are
not the keys to the solution. A change in consciousness is the key. . . . We need
environmental law to be transnational law, not international law, to accommodate so
many different legal systems.
2.8. THE STATUS OF WOMEN IS CHANGING

Gertrude Mongella, secretary-general of the UN Fourth World Conference on
Women, summarized the need to change the status of women as follows: “One of the
biggest problems for women worldwide is the issue of equality. If everybody thinks
women are not equal, then they will be treated unequally everywhere, in the community.
in the nation, at the international level. This is the mother of all the problems. . . If
we are to succeed, we must get to a level where the only differences between a man
and a woman are their capacities as people, not because one is a woman and one is
a man.”
The striving for equality crosses cultural, geographical, racial, class, religious, and
ethnic boundaries. Yet the very nature of equality has different meanings in different
parts of the world, and in some parts, it is a matter of fierce debate. In the developing
world, equality means reducing the number of women living in extreme poverty and
violence; providing women with access to resources, land, and credit; increasing female
literacy; and, in some countries, giving women the right to participate in the political
decision-making process. As the status of women improves, birthrates decline and the
welfare of nations improve. According to IFAD, Barbados is ranked the highest in
satisfaction of basic needs indexed compared with other Latin American and Caribbean
countries; Barbados also has the highest adult female literacy rate at 99% and the
highest percentage of female participation in the labor force.
In addition to the issues of equality for women in developing countries, economic
and social barriers exist in industrialized countries as well. Although diminishing, wage
disparity and limits on access to executive power pose particular problems, especially
in corporations.
Worldwide, the overall status of women is improving, and there are significant
breakthroughs. In the developing countries, the last 20 years have seen women advancing
twice as fast as men in literacy and school enrollment, women’s life expectancy increasing
by 9 years, and the maternal mortality rate nearly halving worldwide. Nevertheless.
women have a long way to go as their private lives continue to be locked into traditional
patterns that often prevent them from taking advantage of opportunities. The implemen-
tation of the Platform for Action, passed by the UN Fourth World Conference on
Women in Beijing in 1995, is making successful strides, but it has only just begun.

Improving the status of women could be the most cost-effective strategy for improv-
ing most of the issues in this study. . This issue cuts across all economic, political,
and scientific boundaries. . . Increasing the status of women has a positive impact in
all areas of life. . . . Ethnographers, sociologists, anthropologists, and archaeologists
have been predominantly men, thus gravitating to men as they explore other cultures;
hence, men’s stories more often than women’s stories are told around the world. . . .
The most important indicator of this change is the degree of women’s involvement in
politics. . . . The environment was the major issue at the women’s summit in Beijing.
. . . There are more women on the supreme court in Ghana than in the US. . . It’s a
tough issue in some places because of tribal traditions-where, for example, parents
want to sell their daughters into prostitution. . . . Men want to control everything; they
cannot imagine working under women’s supervision. A woman’s personal, intellectual,
and professional growth can inhibit a successful family life. . . . African intellectual
women have a problem getting married to African men, who think they can’t be
controlled. . . . Demanding equality when asking for 7 months’ maternity leave is difficult,
but beyond equality, there is differentiation. . . . Women are not good communicators,
so they lose out in the senior executive context. . . . A limitation on the improving
status of women is that government can change the laws, but not their private lives.
. . . the status of women is changing from needers of protection to builders of alternatives.

2.8.1. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM UN ORGANIZATIONS,
SHOULD INCREASE EMPHASIS ON PROGRAMS DESIGNED TO REDUCE THE FEMALE
ILLITERACY RATE, ESPECIALLY AMONG RURAL, MIGRANT, REFUGEE, INTERNALLY
DISPLACED, AND DISABLED WOMEN.
2.8.2. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND GOVERNMENTS SHOULD ENCOUR-
AGE PROGRAMS THAT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CHILD CARE AND OTHER SERVICES
TO MOTHERS. This is important, but literacy and education are primary. . . . This
issue is less important now in cultures with extended families, but will become a problem
as more people become employed. . . . Governments should include women’s affairs
in national planning. For example, extra time off for the mother could be given during
the first year for child care, as is done in Sweden. This society believes the investment
in the future of its overall society is worth it. Or fathers and mothers can negotiate to
share time off and responsibilities.
2.8.3. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD ENACT AND ENFORCE LEGISLATION IN ALL NA-
TIONS TO GUARANTEE THE RIGHTS OF WOMEN (INCLUDING PROPERTY RIGHTS) AND
TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT LAWS AGAINST GENDER-BASED DISCRIMINATION IN
EMPLOYMENT. This action may require enforcement by embargoes of offending
nations. . . . Couple education to change attitudes in addition to enforcing legislation.
. . . The US has no credibility when it chastises the Chinese on human rights; it has no
authority to do so. Instead, we need to create a system of incentives. . . _Have the Rio
and Beijing UN conferences had any lasting effect? We need to know and measure.
. . . The UN needs enforcement power; it could use some teeth in the human rights charter.
2.8.4. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD INCREASE FUNDING FOR HEALTH CARE AND SO-
CIAL SERVICES. Sure-but not likely, given the global trends of government budget
cutting.
2.8.5. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD RATIFY AND ENFORCE INTERNATIONALTREATIES
ON TRAFFICKING AND SLAVERY, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM CORPORATIONS
AND NGOS. In the meantime, educate the slaves; i.e., if a country has no slaves, then
educate those people who it says are not slaves by letting them go to school. As possible,
NGOs and UNESCO might intervene.
2.8.6. GOVERNMENTS AND NGOS SHOULD ESTABLISH DIRECT LINKS BETWEEN
AND AMONG NATIONAL, REGIONAL, AND INTERNATIONAL BODIES DEALING WITH
WOMEN’S STATUS AND ADVANCEMENT. Linkage also can be made by international

organizations like UNDP, UNESCO, and UN Volunteers.
2.8.7. GOVERNMENTS AND NGOS SHOULD ENHANCE WOMEN’S ACCESS TO CREDIT.
2.8.8. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM NGOS, SHOULD ENSURE
WOMEN’S INVOLVEMENT IN DECISION-MAKING RELATING TO HIV/AIDS AND OTHER
SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASE (STD), FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRAT-
EGIES TO PROTECT WOMEN FROM HIV AND OTHER STDS. AND ENSURE THE PROVI-
SION OF AFFORDABLE PREVENTIVE SERVICES This action
FOR STDS AND HIV/AIDS.
should be led by governmental ministers of women’s affairs, in collaboration with NGOs.
. . This is becoming a national debate in Ghana; churches are playing an important
role here. . . . STDs are now called STIs-sexually transmitted infections.
2.8.9. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD RESTRUCTURE AND TARGET THE ALLOCATION
OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES TO PROMOTE WOMEN’S ACCESS TO FAMILY PLANNING RE-
SOURCES.

Support role models.. . . Increase efforts to get women legal assistance. . Increase
coordination of NGO lobbying of governments to care more about this issue.
2.9. THE SEVERITY OF RELIGIOUS, ETHNIC, AND RACIAL CONFLICTS IS INCREASING

Religious, ethnic, and racial hostilities held in check by the Cold War have now
emerged as a major theme of armed struggle. “Over the last 10 years,” according
to United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research
(WIDER), “the number of humanitarian crises has escalated from an average of 2&2S
a year to about 65-70, while the number of people affected has risen more than propor-
tionately.”
Today, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR), one in 17 people is either a refugee or a displaced person. Many groups
feel a sense of persecution and isolation. Rapid rates of technological, political, and
social change cause many to fear the future, giving rise to feelings of being “left behind”
and the need to reestablish fundamental principles. Increases in regional and interre-
gional migrations are provoking political and economic tensions. The recent successes
of other separatist movements, perceived injustices, and long-held animosities all fuel
the fire. Extremists can focus the media through violence. Stinger missiles, chemical
and biological weapons, and computer viruses are cheap and easy for smaller groups
to use and can have significant effects on “superior” military forces, the media, and the
general public.
Human rights standards are increasing in importance relative to national sover-
eignty. (The example of the UN ensuring passage of food in Somalia established that
in some cases human rights outweigh national sovereignty.) More international interven
tion into extreme religious, ethnic, and racial conflicts seems likely.

The USSR did control ethnic conflict, yet today little fills the vacuum to control
ethnic conflict. Some nation-states may continue to break up in Africa. Will new forms
of governance emerge in Africa? Should the UN Trustee Council take over some of
these disintegrating governments? . Unbalanced economic and political conditions
use race and religion as tools of power; hence, this is related to Issue 2.3: the growing
gap between rich and poor. . . . The fundamental problem is human greed and the
refusal to share. . Global education is essential. as discussed in the UNESCO report
by Delors. There is no mention of authoritarian regimes’ coercive practices, external

domination, and/or interference that increases the severity of these conflicts. . . This
issue, as stated, is a pernicious idea. It is simply not true. It is a mistake to think of
increasing “religious” conflicts; there are no conflicts that have strictly religious reasons.
Instead, people use religious identity to reinforce the fighting capacity of their followers
and can deter the understanding of the roots of the conflict. . . . Islam is not a problem
or evil. The problems come from (colonial) interventions by the West. . . . The problem
in the Middle East largely arises when the US is driven by its Israeli lobby; Syria has
actually cracked down on its fundamentalists. . . . The most difficult potential problem
is how China is brought into the world system. Will US triumphalism (after the fall of
communism) rebound when it loses its position in the world? The US seems to swing
between extremes: isolating problem states (in the Middle East) or engaging them (in
China, fortunately).

2.9.1. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD READJUST SCHOOL CURRICULA TO EMPHASIZE
COMPASSIONATE BEHAVIOR AND SOCIALLY ACCEPTABLE VALUES, SUCH AS TOLER-
ANCE FOR DIVERSITY. Although a long-term solution, without the readjustment of
school curriculum, there will be no long-term progress. . . . This can lay the foundation
for a more peaceful world, but how to get governments and their teachers to change
curriculum when they might be a source of intolerance? . . . Amnesty International has
been involved in such education through a network of human rights educators that
adapt curriculum to local systems where the governments allow it. Venezuela has
committed 2000 teachers from kindergarten to twelvth grade to teach a curriculum of
tolerance and human rights. . . . If children were taught that Arabs invented algebra,
then non-Arabic children will be more interested in Arabic culture; if they were taught
that Kodiak islanders make good fishing hooks, then there would be more interest in
learning about Kodiak culture, etc. All cultures have value and have contributed to
civilization-we should learn what they are. . . . UNU and UNESCO can provide
generalized knowledge for ministries of education to use, but it would be best if domestic
NGOs gave the more specific content to the curriculum.
2.9.2. UN AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND NGOS SHOULD
IDENTIFY THE MOST LIKELY NEXT CONFLICTS AND FACILITATE MEDIATION BE-
TWEEN THE GROUPS INVOLVED.
2.9.3. UN ORGANIZATIONS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM NGOS AND GOVERN-
MENTS, SHOULD ESTABLISH AN EARLY-WARNING SYSTEM TO IDENTIFY CULTURAL,
ETHNIC, AND RELIGIOUS ISSUES AND TRENDS THAT MIGHT LEAD TO CONFLICT.
Actions 2.9.2 and 2.9.3 are quite similar; hence, comments are grouped together here.
The UN secretariat must do this better in cooperation with NGOs. There is a
consensus that the international community has the right to intervene when conditions
warrant because the consequences of not intervening can have effects beyond national
borders. Early intervention, by threatening or even bombing, would have deterred most
of the violence in the former Yugoslavia. . . . Focus on this action as the key to addressing
this issue. . . The UN is working on this now, but it is difficult to connect early
warning to appropriate action. Although there is a better sharing of intelligence now,
governments will not let their intelligence systems be used by the UN in the same way
that the UN Security Council can use governments’ military force. . . . The new system
should have the ability to send in human rights observers in greater numbers as preven-
tion to massacres; this might have prevented the carnage in Rwanda that was initiated
by a small number of people. Instead, UN human rights observers were pulled out.
Liberia could have been much worse had not Economic Community of West African
States (ECOWAS) and observers come in. . . . Previous attempts for early intervention
have appealed to moral values; instead, there should be a focus on political and economic
cost/benefit analyses (millions of dollars to cure the problem versus funds for early
intervention to prevent the problem). The consensus is growing that we need to establish
criteria on when to intervene against a sovereign nation-state. . . . Early interventions
should follow this sequence: first, international media attention with NGOs assistance;
if there is no response, then economic pressure from governments; and if still no
response, then military action through regional or UN or groups of nations. . . Imagine
Cable News Network (CNN) or a UN media team with fast-moving cars with television
cameras for a live satellite link as a new kind of Information-Age rapid deployment
force to more rapidly focus global conscience. . . Add to this studies to understand
the evolution of the potential conflict-not to open old wounds, but to understand
where it came from and what could work.
2.9.4. GOVERNMENTS, IN COOPERATION WITH UN ORGANIZATIONS, SHOULD ES-
TABLISH POLITICAL PRIORITY FOR ENSURING HUMAN RIGHTS AND DIGNITY. Com-
plete treaties with standards and reporting, including those that protect the rights 01
women and children. . . . Media attention can help put the spotlight on infractions early.
The UN and others can give constitutional and legal reform advice to comply with new
standards of human rights. . . . Countries may have their own definitions of human
rights that were used to control other countries. . . . If some intervention had occurred
when the Serb-controlled government began abusing human rights, first of the Albanians
and then of the Croats and Moslems, events might have evolved differently in the
former Yugoslavia.
2.95. GOVERNMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD INCREASE
FUNDING FOR SOCIAL MARKETING OR PUBLIC EDUCATION FOR TOLERANCE AND
RESPECT FOR DIVERSITY AND EQUAL RIGHTS. How to educate governing elites who
may be part of the problem?
2.9.6. GOVERNMENTS, WITH COACHING FROM UN ORGANIZATIONS, SHOULD SEEK
MEANS FOR INCLUDING THE VIEWS OF DISSIDENT GROUPS INTO THE LEGITIMATE
POLITICAL PROCESSES OF THEIR COUNTRIES. Media like CNN can help get views
heard by leaders and can help enforce a boycott. Alternative radio stations, the Internet.
and faxes have proved very useful to help information flow. . . . All our recent conflicts
have been the result of dissident groups not having their views heard. The UN human
rights process needs shaping up. The international community is just not ready to punish
violators of human rights.
2.9.7. ENABLE THE UN TO HAVE A STANDING MILITARY FORCE (PEACE-KEEPING/
BUILDING) TO INTERVENE IN A MORE TIMELY FASHION TO PREVENT, TO QUIET, OR
To END ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS, AND RACIAL WARS. Governments will not accept a
standing UN military even if deployed only through the Security Council. Instead a
rapid response capacity could be created if governments identify troops to be trained
together and have compatible equipment and communications and standard supply
depots. This could reduce response time from 24 months down to 1 week. . . This is
acceptable since it would act as a deterrent, but how do you make sure the UN army
doesn’t also begin the abuse of human rights? . . Rapid military force should only be
used for preventing war or its escalation, not for human rights abuses-these should
be addressed by softer means, such as denial of privileges, rejection of loans. and other
developmental pressures of one kind of another.
2.9.8. INDIVIDUALS, GROUPS, GOVERNMENTS, AND UN ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD

CONDUCT MORE RESEARCH PROJECTS DESIGNED TO UNCOVER THE CAUSES OF COL-
LECTIVE VIOLENCE. NGOs like the Carnegie Institute have made contributions in
this direction.
2.9.9. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD INCREASE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (ESPE-
CIALLY MICROENTERPRISE CREDIT AND Although the poorest of the
TRAINING).
poor do not create the conflicts, they are used as pawns. However, if they are beginning
to make economic progress, then they are less likely to be used for conflict. . . . Just
when the design and monitoring of development assistance are improving, there is little
money available. Nevertheless, money should be increased to both multilateral and
bilateral programs.
2.9.10. GOVERNMENTS, NGOS, AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD
INCREASE FUNDING FOR TRAINING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE IN GOVERNANCE
AND MEDIATION, ESPECIALLY IN TROUBLE Yes, this is something that NGOs
SPOTS.
like Amnesty International can and should implement. It is important to help search
for common ground. . . . If governments are too poor, then they can certainly use the
help, but most know what to do; they just do not want to do it.
2.9.11. THE UN SHOULD ESTABLISH INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURTS AND TRI-
BUNALS WITH ENFORCEMENT POWERS TO PUNISH THOSE CONVICTED OF ATROCIOUS
COLLECTIVE AND COMMUNAL VIOLENCE. This should be one of the top three actions.
In many countries, if you kill one person, you go to jail and die, but you can instigate
the killing of 10,000 with impunity. There have to be both national and international
efforts to end impunity for such violence. . . . In a year or two, there will be a diplomatic
conference to organize a statute for such a court. Currently individuals and private
organizations of lawyers are leading this. . . . It is important to get control of the money
so that political crime does not pay. Prevent the ability of political leaders to store their
money in Swiss bank accounts and villas on the Riviera. . . . Proceedings should be
televised. Design smarter sanctions that target elite criminals, not innocent populations
and whole countries.
2.10. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OFFERS BOTH PROMISE AND PERILS

The Internet has grown faster than any phenomena in history. Interactive cybers-
pace has become an important new and unprecedented medium for civilization. All
forms of information technology will spread throughout even the poorest regions of
the world as prices for computers, software, and telecommunications continue to fall and
their capacity and ease of use continues to improve. Currently, 90% of the information
technology market is in the US, Europe, and Japan, but this is changing. By the end of
1994, electronic mail connected all countries together through virtual gateways. AT&T’s
Africa One Project and the Global Information Infrastructure vision of US Vice Presi-
dent Al Gore are expected to accelerate Internet growth in developing countries. By
the year 2000, the Internet Society expects 187 million hosts connected worldwide, 2
million networks outside the US, 2.5 billion users, and more traffic than voice telephone.
The Internet represents one of the most powerful agents of change in the world,
affecting everything from science and religion to politics and medicine. It is becoming
the first location for the discussion of new ideas, publishing, advertising, and commerce.
For developing countries, the Internet possesses the potential means to accelerate
economic development, provide greater and faster access to the world’s knowledge,
and become the medium for participating in the world’s economy.
Many people find the Internet to be confusing and unorganized, while others find
it to be exciting and self-organizing. Within the next decade, the Internet will be simpler,
more accessible, and faster. Automation has begun displacing routine human behavior,
giving rise to the possibility of economic growth with less employment. If new kinds of
enterprises and employment are not created to address computer- and automation-
induced unemployment, the unemployed and underemployed could well create an anti-
technology sentiment and political crises,
At the same time, one should expect sabotage through the Internet. Credit and
bank fraud, computer viruses, other forms of criminal manipulation, and even informa-
tion warfare by individuals, groups, corporations, and nations are possible. Additionally,
pornography and other influences deemed culturally unacceptable are creating hostility
toward the free growth of the Internet. Privacy and property rights are also issues of
concern. Authenticity of information will be difficult to establish. Nonetheless, informa-
tion technology is creating a planetary “nervous system” necessary for improving the
prospects for humanity.

This issue is the most important to address, since it cuts across all others. It can
contribute to the solution of all the global issues in this report. . . . There is no question
that information technology is transforming the human rights struggle around the world.
. . Equal access between the rich and poor to the same quality information is increasingly
possible. . Information technology is the new thrust of World Bank policy to address
the development gap. . . . A new culture is being created for a positive business
environment globally. . . . The global availability of CNN may also educate, in terms
of changing attitudes and cultures. . . Information technology is eliminating some of
the blindness about global understanding of policy. . . . Business cannot survive without
the Internet today, because it provides a better chance to select partners, resources,
laws, markets, everything. . . . It reduces the need for middleman retailers; the buyer
and supplier can meet directly in cyberspace, thus making geography and social status
irrelevant. . . It manages food shipments to reduce spoilage in transit. . . . The Internet
is the most cost-effective way to link people and data around the world. spreading
modern science and techniques, culture, and various arts more than any other mechanism
in history. . Cultures unable or unwilling to meet in person share information via
Internet home pages, making transborder cooperation easier. . . . It distributes the wealth
of information more democratically than previous economic systems. . . Information
technology is associated with the future, education, and freedom. . . . The Russian
government that proposed the reforms did not have the mechanisms or prioritized
policies to realize the reforms. Businesses have had to rely on information technology
to participate in the global economy and have had to train personnel abroad to use
this technology. . . . Its potential for damage, as we get more dependent on it, could
be more than conventional weapons, especially when one contemplates the possibilities
of information warfare. . . . Information technology can communicate unhealthy influ-
ences (especially to children) and new ways to cheat, and viruses will be spread. . . .
In the exploration of the physical world, corporations such as the Dutch East India
Company took on responsibility for the rules of development; so, too, the private sector
will take the leadership for the rules of the development of the electronic and photonic
world. . . . Privatization is a global trend that will influence the future development of
cyberspace. . How will governments collect taxes on global electronic commerce’?
. . . Once we understand that this is truly a revolution-and not merely a more efficient
way to do what we did in the past-then we will make great progress with this technology.

2.10.1. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE FREE INTERNET ACCESS AND
TRAINING TO THE PUBLIC AT PUBLIC LIBRARIES AND SCHOOLS. Corporations will
lead this development, but governments have to open tk business environment to
competition to accelerate the provision of access. The WTCI can pressure governments
to open the competitive environment. OECD found that countries with open competition
for telecommunications have six times more telecommunications access per capita. . . .
Use more access points like Hong Kong does with free local telephone calls from
restaurants, etc. . . . I would prefer easy access to free access; people may not value
what is given freely, but this action is rated too highly. Who finances it? Macropolicies
would be more effective then this micropolicy. . . Less than 8% of the world read and
write English and only half the world has telephones. . How to get the right information,
in the right format, at the right time to people, rather than focusing solely on the
“information highway,” is the key. Simple instructional materials using slide shows,
booklets, films, audio cassettes, video with local language voiceovers, and other more
basic or low-technology alternatives to the Internet are very important, and this is a
more effective way to address the knowledge gap. Don’t waste governments’ funds in
low-income countries on extending the information highway; corporations should do
it . . . . Creating and improving the telecommunications infrastructure are more important
than free access at local libraries and schools.
2.10.2. GOVERNMENTS, IN COOPERATION ii&I CORPORATIONS, SHOULD CREATE
INCENTIVES FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS TO ACCELERATE THE INTRODUCTION OF
COMPUTER COMMUNICATIONS AND RELATED EQUIPMENT TO DEVELOPING COUN-
TRIES AND TRAINING TO FACILITATE THE USE OF GLOBAL The primary
NETWORKS.
incentive for foreign investment is government acceptance of open competition for
private-sector information technology companies to sell technology and services. . . .
Net Days, initiated by John Gage of Sun Microelectronics and spreading to other
countries, gives a day to a school to wire it to computers and Internet access; hence,
the private sector is already willing; if governments open the markets, then corporations
don’t need an incentive to come in.
2.10.3. CORPORATIONS, IN COOPERATION WITH GOVERNMENTS, SHOULD PRO-
MOTE POLICIES THAT ANTICIPATE AND EXPAND NETWORK CAPABILITIES THAT
TEND TO HELP AVOID COMMUNICATIONS OVERLOAD. If more than one company
can sell data lines and switches in a country, then the capacity problem will be solved
by the private sector. . . . This is a purely commercial decision. . . . Direct satellite
access, cable television, and new optical fiber systems will address this action. . . . I
would prefer that governments do this.
2.10.4. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, IN COOPERATION WITH INDIVIDUALS,
GROUPS, AND NGOS, SHOULD CREATE/AN ONGOING GLOBAL FORUM TO FREELY
EXPLORE THE POTENTIALS OF THE EMERGING WORLD This forum
CYBERSPACE.
could also take leadership to make recommendations about other actions to address
this issue. . . . This forum would be an interesting UN activity in terms of making
thinking about the future more respectable, but this would really only be a marketing
device-and must be fully interactive (via the Internet). . . . There are many already
doing this, such as UNESCO, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU),
United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), WTO, OECD, the
International Chamber of Commerce, but others can contribute. . . . The Internet is

already an ongoing forum. . . If one is to lead, then it should be an NGO, with all
others involved in a “global teach-in.” . . . Add the private sector.
2.10.5. GOVERNMENTS, WITH ASSISTANCE FROM NGOS AND CORPORATIONS,
SHOULD RECOGNIZE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ADVANTAGES OF INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGIES ON EMPLOYMENT AND INSTITUTE LARGE-SCALE AND ENTREPRE-
NEURIAL TRAINING FOR EMERGENT OR GROWING ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES. The
amount and quality of employment is a function of knowledge and attitude per capita,
not increasing information technology per capita. . . . It is really important for everyone
(governments, organizations, and individuals) to recognize that the information society
is very different from industrial society. The assumptions made by each about life are
different. If countries do not understand the new assumptions, they will lose out. For
instance, local government will become much more important; small and microen-
terprises will be different, perhaps just a consortium of friends, but operating globally.
Size is not important-consultancies could have a limit of 35 people before they split
up into smaller units again. . . . Although some corporations have laid off workers,
overall employment in this sector is increasing.
2.10.6. GOVERNMENTS AND CORPORATIONS SHOULD DEVELOP SYSTEMS TO PRO-
TECT CHILDREN AND SOME OTHER PEOPLE’S RIGHT NOT TO BE EXPOSED TO UN-
WANTED INFORMATION. Many software companies, such as Netscape, have already
offered software to control this. . . . This software is desirable, practical, and available.
. . Even if the pornography issue is solved, some cultures will resist open access to
the Internet to prevent their people’s being influenced by other cultures and English
dominance. . . This issue should be addressed with civic education and family conversa-
tions. Families could “surf the Net” together-“family surfing.” . . . Cultures have to
respect each other’s preferences.
2.10.7. CORPORATIONS SHOULD DEVELOP COMPUTERS AND SOFTWARE ADAPTED
FOR THIRD WORLD AND NON-WESTERN CULTURES. This is the United Nations
University International Institute for Software Technology’s (IIST) mission. . . Govern-
ments could be advised by NGOs on how to implement this action. . . What adaptation
is really needed? . . . Local adaptation and software authoring are being done and will
continue rapidly . . . . Third World governments should take some leadership to create
incentives for their own local software entrepreneurs to create their own culturally and
linguistically oriented software. . . . Don’t make new local software, because it would
cripple developments; non-Western cultures that adapt to information technology better
than others can adapt it to special circumstances.
2.10.8. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD CHANGE MEDICAL AND EDUCATION LAWS TO
ACCOMMODATE ON-LINE CONSULTATION AS LEGITIMATE AND COVERED BY INSUR-
ANCE. This is only a US problem. The many forms of telemedicine and telehealth
are the way of the future. . . NGOs should be in charge of these changes. . . . Don’t
limit this just to “consult,” but allow for access to data to help one diagnose oneself,
find treatments, and keep one’s own health records.
2.10.9. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD PROMOTE TELENATIONAL CITIZENSHIP (THIRD
WORLD PEOPLE WHO WORK IN THE FIRST WORLD BUT VOLUNTEER TIME TO HELP
DEVELOP THEIR COUNTRIES VIA TELECOMMUTING.) The private sector and individu-
als should also lead and support this. . . . The reverse is already happening: thousands
of Indian citizens provide software for clients around the world.
2.10.10. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS
To ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS THAT
CAN BE MARKETED IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. The World Intellectual Property

Organization (WIPO) has addressed intellectual property rights in print, video, and
film, but currently they are examining electronic copyrights. . . . This requires new
concepts about information-a day-old newspaper is not worth much, but how much
would you pay for a month-old medical journal that had information you needed?
There are different views of information ownership and rig& in different cultures. . . .
What is fair use? What can you copy for educational use? The effort to copy thousands
of electronic books is different than the effort to copy thousands of printed books; there
is virtually no limit to copying on the Internet, but there are physical limits in other
media. . . . We need to develop suitable copywrite enforcement mechanisms, maybe
by sending in electronic investigators. . Some cultures do not recognize this as a
problem-it is a form of cultural blindness. . . . Call for equal leadership with the private
sector on this issue.
2.10.11. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGA-
NIZATIONS, SHOULD ENCOURAGE A HANDS-OFF POSTURE TOWARD THE REGULA-
TION OF THE CONTENT AND USE OF INTERNATIONAL NETWORKS SUCH AS THE IN-
TERNET. This and action 2.10.10 will require US leadership to address. . . People
want the security of a market place with reasonable rules and as much self-governance
as possible. . . . Adopt a global rather than an international posture. . . . Everything
from police to airports is being privatized, so too should be the key elements of the
Internet. . . . I would prefer 2.10.11 to 2.10.10. . . The question is whose hands? It
should be self-regulation, not government. It is a new form of community. It can
be controlled. You can bomb an offender with viruses-using force in the way that
governments are traditionally empowered to do. But it is no longer subject to national
law (but will the US accept that?).

International organizations like the WTO, ITU, and EU should help coach govern-
ments as to their role in promoting global harmonization of communications rules and
standards. . . Understand how to prevent “information warfare” with closed hierarchical
networks beyond popular control.
2.11. ORGANIZED CRIME GROUPS ARE BECOMING SOPHISTICATED

GLOBAL ENTERPRISES
With vast sums of money from illegal drugs and other sources, organized crime is
buying the technical know-how to generate even more profits in new ventures ranging
from information fraud to human organ and arms traffic. Examples include the 1991
bank fraud of US$2.2 billion, telephone fraud of $4 billion, and credit card fraud of
$1.5 billion. Financial institutions in the United States alone transfer over $1 trillion
via computer networks daily; this and other international financial flows provide tempt-
ing targets.
Power vacuums across the world created by the fall of Soviet authority and weak-
ened national governments in other regions are being filled in part by new forms of
criminal power. Indecisive or untimely responses are likely to encourage an expansion
of these criminal trends. Although organized crime is very small compared with the
overall number of crimes today, its potential for growth due to its accumulation of large
amounts of money and potential relations with terrorists increases the capacity of
violent and extremely dangerous activities. Unfortunately, there is little international
coordination to address organized crime except in the area of narcotics.
A generation of children has been exposed to violence and criminal behavior on

TV and in other media at an early age; this may increase the potential for later criminal
behavior and create a siege mentality among law-abiding citizens. Some people fed up
with crime demand restrictions on civil liberties, greater use of the death penalty, and
increased government surveillance in an attempt to rid society of criminals and weapons.
Actions to Address Issue 1 I, with a Range of Views on These Actions

2.11.1. GOVERNMENTS, IN COOPERATION WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZA-
TIONS, SHOULD COMPLETE AN INTERNATIONAL SET OF AGREEMENTS FOR TRACKING
AND ARRESTING INTERNATIONAL CRIMINALS. The agreements should include data
exchange, personnel consultancy, and provisions for sanctions against countries that do
not implement the agreements.
2.11.2. NGOS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY UN ORGANIZATIONS AND GOVERN-
MENTS, SHOULD ESTABLISH GLOBAL DIALOGUES ON HUMAN VALUES AND MORALS
TO CONTINUE OVER SEVERAL DECADES VIA TELEVISION, THE INTERNET. SHORT-
WAVE RADIO. INTERACTIVE GAMES, ETC., TO IDENTIFY AND ACKNOWLEDGE
GLOBAL ETHICS, ENCOMPASSING RESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOR AND CARING FOR OTHERS.
2.113. UN ORGANIZATIONS AND GOVERNMENTS SHOULD ESTABLISH INTERNA-
TIONAL EARLY-WARNING SYSTEMS FOCUSING ON POTENTIAL EMERGING CRIME
THREATS. This has begun to some degree already, but the governments do not use
these forecasts to make decisions. If these early-warning systems were implemented as
a global or international system, then governments inight be more likely to act on the
information. International data standards should be established, such that forecasting
could be done. A UN organization should be responsible for the collection, organization,
and management of the information. If this is not possible initially, then regional
centers should be established for Europe. Africa, etc., with country agreements with
the regional centers.
2.11.4.GOVERNMENTS SHOULD PLAN TO BUILD RESILIENCE AND REDUNDANCIES
INTO SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTEMS TO AVOID POSSIBLE CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTIONS.
This is a wise policy, regardless of the increasing power of organized crime, and should
be done anyway. There is much discussion about this, but governments are moving
too slowly.
2.11.5. GOVERNMENTS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY UN ORGANIZATIONS,
SHOULD ADDRESS NEW CRIME AREAS SUCH AS ILLEGAL WASTE DISPOSAL. THEFT
OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS, HUMAN ORGAN AND ARMS TRAFFIC, AND SABOTAGE OF
INFORMATION NETWORKS. Governments should make their legislative base in concert
with other countries and evolve international agreements.
2.11.6. SOFTWARE COMPANIES. IN COOPERATION WITH AND SUPPORT FROM COV-
ERNMENTS. SHOULD ACCELERATE EFFORTS TO DEVELOP SOFTWARE TO DETECT
INTERNATIONAL COMPUTER-BASED FRAlJD AND TRAIN IN SOFTWARE USE.
2.11.7. UN ORGANIZATIONS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY GOVERNMENTS AND
LEGAL ORGANIZATIONS, SHOULD DEVELOP INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL LAW AND
ESTABLISH A WORLD CRIMINAL COURT WITH ENFORCEMENT POWERS.
Local crimi-
nals should be judged by local courts; international criminals must be judged by interna-
tional courts. . . All could be on television before the “court” of world opinion.
2.11.8. G-8 COUNTRIES SHOULD ESTABLISH BUDGET AND TRAINING PROGRAMS
FOR FOREIGN COUNTERPARTS, WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO NEWLY EMERGING
DEMOCRACIES AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, AND INCREASE THE NUMBER
OF CASE-SPECIFIC INTERNATIONAL TRAINING SEMINARS TO PROVIDE MORE PRACTI-
CAL TRAINING FOR OFFICERS. These training programs should contain efficient and
practical applications, having in mind the sophistication of criminal organized groups
acting globally. The creation of more international bureaucracy should be avoided.
2.12. ECONOMIC GROWTH BRINGS BOTH PROMISING AND

THREATENING CONSEQUENCES
The driving force generated by the interdependence between economic growth
and technological innovation has been the most significant engine for change for the
last 200 years. Economic growth is responsible for changing the standard of living for
most people in the world. It is shaping the physical and social environment, creating
new global business relationships, and changing the nature of work, employment, and
expectations about the role and responsibilities of governments. The consequences of
economic growth are subject to pessimistic and optimistic interpretations. There is
pessimism over the nature and number of jobs, the widening income gaps, trade disputes,
energy consumption, political disorder, environmental degradation, migrations from
lesser developed countries, technological displacement, conflict between societal and
economic aims, and uneven distribution of wealth among nations. And there is equally
intense optimism over economic growth’s production of employment, food, shelter,
clothing, health care, knowledge, and tax revenues for governments’ social programs,
as well as the financial resources and new technologies for improved environmental
management and global information access. During the same period of economic growth,
infant mortality has fallen, life expectancy has risen, and living standards for 34 billion
people have improved.
The globalization and liberalization of nation;1 economies promise to accelerate
the forces of global economic growth. The WTO’s International Trade Trends and
Statistics Report states that in 1995 “the volume of world merchandise exports expanded
at its fastest pace in nearly two decades.” The increase in trade was nearly triple the
growth in output in 1994 and nearly triple the growth in 1993. Will the intensity and
scale of these forces contradict the goals of sustainability? The UNCED in Rio de
Janeiro addressed this issue and concluded that although the link between economic
growth and environmental degradation is unquestionable, sustainable forms of economic
growth are, nevertheless, necessary to resolving environmental problems in the future;
the sheer magnitude of these problems are quite costly. Considering such consequences
of growth is central to the building of economic growth strategies for a more sustainable
human future and was the subject of the UN’s “Rio + 5” conference in 1997.
Additional Interviewee Comments +

Without economic growth, none of the 15 global issues stated in this report can
be addressed well. . . . No government can meet its sustainable development goals
unless it attracts foreign capital. . . . There is still a bias against growth. Without growth,
billions of people will be condemned to poverty. . . The debate between the market
approach versus central economic planning is over; now the question is how best to
make the market work for sustainable development in an increasingly global economy.
. . . Increasing global consumption is not sustainable; hence, the conflict of economic
growth and environmental quality will get worse unless human behavior changes. . .
Investments into education, especially of girls, are essential to continue growth into the
more complex future of the 21st century. . . . We are now experiencing the breakdown
of old definitions of wealth and moral standards and the very early emergence of new
world views or paradigms. During this period, we have to manage the negative effects
on the family, ethics, morality, personal independence, and decadence. . . . There are good
and bad in all things-growth, information technology, etc. When the bad outweighs
the good, then international organizations should intervene; the Internet helps get
information around to help address these imbalances. . . . Poverty is the main cause
of environmental degradation. . . . Negative consequences of growth have happened
throughout history and new forms of self-organization have emerged to address them.
. Economic growth is necessary to address all the other issues in this report, but it
must be sustainable economic growth created by (1) sound macroeconomic policies, (2)
financial policies that include environmental costs as reoccurring costs, (3) environmental
policies that manage natural resources and pollution-sound environmental policy is
sound economic policy, as was concluded at UNCED-and (4) transparent social policies
that foster equal opportunity, choices to improve conditions for oneself and family,
sensitivity to cultural differences, and increased social stability.

2.12.1. NGOS AND GOVERNMENTS SHOULD INCREASE NATIONAL AND INTERNA-
TIONAL EFFORTS AT BUILDING COMMUNITIES THAT PROVIDE MODELS OF SUSTAIN-
ABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. China has 60 such experimental models in operation
today.. . . Include governance in these models as a key element. . . . The environmentalist
must meet the economist half-way to create these. . . . Get all the stakeholders involved
to build consensus. Invite broad participation in their design-especially by those who
will live there. . . . The UNCED and governments are now preparing sustainable
economic development programs for the first time.
2.12.2. GOVERNMENT, IN PARTNERSHIP WITH ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENTISTS AND
THE PRIVATE SECTOR, SHOULD CREATE TAXES OR FEES FOR THE MOST ENVIRON-
MENTALLY DAMAGING ACTIVITIES. This will work. Our government has begun, but
financial support is too modest. . . Phase them in over time: it is dangerous to do it
all at once without giving producers time to respond. . Consider other forms of
regulation in this package. . Only economic measures are listed. We should add
moral and education actions. Can we, by taxing our activities, change our morality and
understanding of the world? . . This should be preceded by getting regulation of the
environment correct.
2.12.3. GOVERNMENT SHOULD ACHIEVE A BETTER BALANCE OF ENERGY SOURCES
BY IMPLEMENTING A FULL-COST ACCOUNTING FOR EXTERNAL AND ENVIRONMEN-
TAL EFFECTS AND IMPACTS. It is so obvious that this should be done, but no one
can do it until the scientists come to agreement about these issues. So first organize
the scientific research to answer these issues, and then talk about how to implement
the solutions incrementally. . . . This will produce useful debate about who should
pay the full costs.
2.12.4 THE PRIVATE SECTOR, WITH GOVERNMENT SUPPORT, SHOULD GREATLY
INCREASE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TO QUADRUPLE ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY
WITHIN 36-50 YEARS, I.E., THE OUTPUT IN ENERGY SERVICES PER PRIMARY ENERGY
INPUT. This will require increased investment and domestic savings to promote growth.
2.125. NGOS. WITH SOME LEADERSHIP AND SUPPORT FROM GOVERNMENT.
SHOULD ENCOURAGE DECREASES IN CONSUMPTION BY INDUSTRIALIZED COUN-
TRIES. It is best to use incentives, eliminate subsidies, and charge the real cost of
resources. Build a consensus by consciousness-raising activities, as was done with
recycling, using a bottom-up approach with individuals, groups, and NGOs.
2.12.6* NGOS SHOULD DEVELOP AN ECONOMICALLY SOPHISTICATED THEORY
AND DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS THAT PREVENT ECONOMIC EXCESSES AND PRO-
TECT PEOPLE’S RIGHTS TO MAKE THEIR OWN CULTURAL AND POLITICAL CHOICES
WITH MINIMUM NEGATIVE IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH. The central concept
of the new theory should be transparency and partnership. . . . This action is biased
against growth. . . I disagree that this should be pursued.
2.12.7.NGOS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP FROM INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS, SHOULD
INCREASE AWARENESS OFTHE DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH MONOPOLIES CREATED
BY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC GROUPS AMONG THE MEDIA AND PUBLIC. Policies
that foster equal opportunity should prevent this. . . . Implement policies that create
synergies among growth, equity, and the environment. . . . Growth does not have to
cut equity. . . . NGOs should work through political parties to influence government
policy. Those policies should balance the macro with the micro.

We need a global agreement that the elimination of poverty by economic growth
is the top priority. . . . Government should support development of new zero (or low)
emission technology. . . . NGOs, with government support, should increase efforts to
popularize sustainable development with economic development.
2.13. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS AROUND THE WORLD ARE AGING

All nuclear power plants are aging and will have to be decommissioned when their
lifetime is expended. Techniques for decommissioning are not well in hand, and long-
term storage of decommissioned plants and materials will be required. In addition,
some plants (e.g., Chernobyl) use technologies and control systems that have higher
than standard risks. Nuclear power plants are designed to operate for a period of
between 30 and 50 years; after that time, the plants have to be dismantled and the sites
made safe for other uses. More than 300 facilities around the world will have to be
decommissioned by 2010. Decommissioning may also be required in the case of an
accident or of a nuclear plant closing for other reasons.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defines three stages of decom-
missioning: storage with surveillance (spent fuel is removed and liquid systems are
drained; estimated time is 5 years), restricted site release (buildings and shielding are
dismantled), and unrestricted site use (the reactor itself is dismantled).
To date, about 70 commercial reactors have been removed from operation. A 250
MW unit in eastern Germany was decommissioned by removing all nuclear systems
from the site,and the site is now used for agriculture. In Canada, at the site of three
retired gas-cooled reactors, stage 3 has been delayed 50 years. In England, two 138
MW reactors have been closed; it has been proposed that a containment building be
built around the plant for a storage period of 100 years. In the US, one closed plant is
in a safe storage mode for 19 years and the other, opting for immediate dismantling,
is expected to be cleared in 8 years. Reactor 2 at Three Mile Island required 14 years
of clean up and is in storage until 2014, when the adjacent reactor will also be shut
down. International programs for sharing information about decommissioning have
already been established.
With the decommissioning of nuclear power plants and accelerating energy require-
ments, new electric production will become far more important than generally appreci-
ated. Developing economies will certainly require more energy. Fresh water can be
produced from salt or brackish water using electricity. As a result, nuclear power
generation capacity may be expanded in the future. This electric energy source does
not add greenhouse gases. The radioactive wastes may yet become a resource. Neverthe-
less, long-term storage of radioactive materials will be required, and vigilant security
will be necessary to prevent theft and illicit use.
Additional Interviewee Comments ”

This issue is probably bigger than we think. . . Decommissioning of nuclear power
plants cannot be solved efficiently at present. One of the most urgent and important
decisions that has to be made is the decision about disposal of radioactive material. It
is an imminent global threat looking for an immediate global solution. . . Nuclear
power plants may be the main targets in future wars; therefore, it is regarded as a big
hidden problem. . . France, with 80% of its capacity in aging nuclear plants, has the
biggest problem.

2.13.1. GOVERNMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD IN-
CREASE FUNDING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATE,GENERATION SOURCES FOR
ELECTRICITY BASE LOADING. This is the most objective action. Others seem to have
more subjectivity attached. . . . Alternatives to nuclear power are not too promising.
Fossil power plants are cheap and quick, but contribute to global warming. Fusion
always seems to be 40 years in the future. Fusion, incidentally, presents more difficult
proliferation problems than fission reactors because of the possibilities for producing
plutonium. Solar? That won’t save us. . . . Ground solar can contribute to the energy
supply and should, but solar power satellites in earth orbit can be a long-term alternative
to nuclear. Both nuclear and solar satellites provide electricity without greenhouse gas
effects. Owing to lump-sum investment, nuclear power is not suitable for developing
countries. Coal and oil will still be the main energy source for China for a long time.
Hydropower and wind energy can contribute and are free of pollution. . . . Hydrogen
can substitute for gasoline in transportation.
2.13.2. WITH GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR LEADERSHIP, AN INTERNA-
TIONAL PROGRAM SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED TO BUILD A TRUST FUND TO FINANCE
THE DISMANTLING OF DANGEROUS PLANTS (CHERNOBYL TYPE). Nice idea, but not
likely to be funded until some major accidents happen.
2.133. GOVERNMENT, IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE PRIVATE SECTOR, SHOULD IN-
CLUDE THE COST OF DISMANTLING AND STORAGE OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS IN
PRICING ELECTRICITY. Fine idea and will have an effect, but the idea should be
applied to other sources, too. Fossil fuels also have hidden costs that should be added
to their overall economic analysis; hidden costs include health risks and global warming.
2.13.3. GOVERNMENT SHOULD SUPPORT RESEARCH FOR A BREAKTHROUGH
THAT WOULD MAKE USE OF THE RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS THAT ARE AVAILABLE
AT DECOMMISSIONING. This and action 2.135 are the most important ones that
concern the disposal of radioactive materials. Since this is such a major global threat,
it needs a globally organized response supported by all nations and NGOs. . . 1 do
not have much confidence that a breakthrough will come in time.
2.13.5. ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PLASMA TORCH AND OTHER TECH-
NOLOGIES FOR THE TRANSMUTATION OR DESTRUCTION OF DANGEROUS RADIOAC-
TIVE MATERIALS-LED BY GOVERNMENTS AND CORPORATIONS. I do not have much
confidence in this, but it is a direction for research.
2.13.6. GOVERNMENT SHOULD SUPPORT PRIVATE-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT OF RO-
BOTS THAT WILL AVOID PART OF THE RISKS TO HUMANS IN THE PROCESS OF DECOM-
MISSIONING NUCLEAR PLANTS. This is more practical and a better policy than 2.13.4
and 2.13.5
Ez ‘90891
%I!
J El‘::i ‘fl‘i-l‘7‘:I‘3PI‘3‘7::I
‘::I 1.8 2.7 39 5.3 6.9 8.7 10.7 13 0 15.5 18 5 21 9 25 9 30.6
Fig. 2. Newly reported and cumulative cases of HIV in millions.

Constrain the development of nuclear power plants, especially in developing coun-
tries. . . . Increase research on protection and treatment of nuclear wastes. . . . Quadruple
funding for the development of safe, renewable energy production.
2.14. THE HIV EPIDEMIC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD

In 1996, 20 million people were infected with HIV, and more than 4.5 million had
developed AIDS since the beginnings of the pandemic (Figure 2). The number of new
cases of AIDS also set a record: just under 2 million. About 1.7 million people died
from AIDS in 1995. The number of newly reported cases of HIV has doubled since
1991. Infection rates exceed 25% in a number of major sub-Saharan African cities. By
the year 2000, there will be 26 million adults living with HIV worldwide.
The possible consequences of this epidemic in Africa-even without further
spread-are dreadful: drastic reduction in the number of bright young people who
would ordinarily take over leadership positions; loss of tourism; acceleration of brain
drain; and the collapse of population growth. According to the National Academy of
Sciences (USA), “By the year 2010, demographers estimate that AIDS will have lowered
life expectancy from 66 to 33 years in Zambia, from 70 to 40 in Zimbabwe, from 68 to
40 in Kenya, and from 59 to 31 years in Uganda.” According to the WHO Report for
1996, Fighting Disease, Fostering Development, the number of AIDS cases in most
regions will continue to rise sharply until 2005-2010 and will then continue at a high
level. New cases in Southeast Asia now exceed those occurring in Africa. Variants of
the virus that had been confined to distinct geographical locations are now appearing
elsewhere; if a vaccine can be found for one strain, it might not protect against another.
Social marketing programs focusing on abstinence and safe sex are meeting some
measure of success. The UN began its UNAIDS program in early 1996 to concentrate
funding and international attention on programs for developing countries.
From a scientific standpoint, new information is being gained from research in
dozens of countries about the nature and etimology of the disease, but a vaccine or
effective therapy remains elusive. Progress in this field includes a new test for the virus
that is 20 times more sensitive than previous tests; direct measurement of HIV viral
load (the lower the viral burden, the longer the delay in developing AIDS); and the
use of protease inhibitors in combination with other drugs to stop the progress of HIV
and or to slow the progression of AIDS.

A cure for AIDS is not in sight; therefore, the most effective goal is prevention.
The disease is not actually quiescent during the incubation period and can make 10
billion copies of the virus in 10 years. The “cocktail of drugs” to treat or slow the
progress of the disease currently costs $20,000 per year per person and is intended to
be administered as soon as one has tested HIV positive to prevent the onset of AIDS.
Some people in the richer regions of the world can afford this, but few can afford it in
the poorer regions where the vast majority of the cases exist.
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 24s

DEVOTED TO SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH ON HIV AND Doubling funding is not the
AIDS.
answer. . . . HIV research is already well funded. It is best instead to focus research
on vaccines, where the scientific community feels strongly about the prospects of a
breakthrough in 7-10 years.
DEVOTED TO EDUCATION AND PUBLIC PERSUASION TO PRACTICE Rather
SAFE SEX.
than double the amount of funding, focus the attention on the small percentage of
people who are responsible for a large percentage of the spread of HIV, such as
urban prostitutes, without driving them further underground. This focus should include
continued education at treatment centers and contact tracing. . Although contact
tracing is very effective, issues of privacy have to be solved. This was the strategy that
reduced sexually transmitted diseases before, not broad general education and posters.
What has to be promoted is negotiating skills that teach a teenager how to negotiate
with her boyfriend about the need to use a condom. . There is a lack of attention
among older people. The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), for exan-
ple, issued a warning to postmenopausal women to whom “safe sex” has in the past
only meant “avoid pregnancy.” . . . UN and other international organizations and
governments should implement these actions cooperatively.
2.143. GOVERNMENTS AND NGOS SHOULD ESTABLISH FREE CONDOM PROGRAMS
IN ALL COUNTRIES IN WHICH THE DISEASE This action is on target,
IS SPREADING.
but don’t make condoms free. Research in Thailand and Brazil proved that low-cost
supply (subsidized) to the market place with social marketing was a better distribution
strategy than free distribution programs. This should be coupled with more normal
strategies to treat other sexually transmitted diseases as noted in action 2.14.2. . . If
condoms are free, there is no effect; they are not valued at all. There must be a small
price, possibly subsidized, for the condoms.
2.14.4. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD ESTABLISH PROGRAMS THAT FOCUS ON THE
RIGHTS OF WOMEN. Women cannot protect themselves without the man’s cooperation
in using condoms. . . This is also an issue of status as well as rights. What are the
choices for a woman whose husband dies of AIDS in a country that does not allow her
to inherit property? Increasing women’s status through education and employment
translates into a closer ratio of males to females in urban populations, which translates
into less commercial sex when compared to urban areas with more males than females
and hence increased urban commercial sex. African cities with a higher male to female
ratio have a higher incidence of commercial sex than those with nearly 1:l ratios. Also,
uneducated and unemployed females have a harder time saying no to men who don’t
use condoms. . . Brothels should mandate the use of condoms. Sex trade should be
unionized to enforce condom use and have clients pay for condoms. We need research
to find what a married woman can use to kill the virus without killing the sperm.
Actions 2.14.5 through 2.14.7 are not supported by UNAIDS or WHO. They are
considered immoral, against human rights, and ineffective.
2.14.5.* REQUIRING HIV EXAMINATIONS IN RISKY COUNTRIES AND AMONG HIGH-
RISK GROUPS IS COUNTERPRODLJCTIVE BY CONVERTING GOVERNMENT HEALTH
OFFICIALS INTO POLICEMEN (LEADING TO SOME DIVISlON OF GOVERNMENT FROM
ITS PEOPLE) AND WILL LEAD TO ABUSE AND BRIBERY.
2.14.6.* SEARCHING FOR AND NOTIFICATION OF PARTNERS OF HIV-POSITIVE PEO-
PLE CAN CREATE A STIGMA AND DRIVE SOME UNDERGROUND. INSTEAD, HIV TEST-
ING SHOULD BE MADE AVAILABLE AT COST FOR INDIVIDUALS AND SUBSIDIZED
FOR COUPLES. INCLUDING HOMOSEXIJAL COUPLES.
2.14.7.” RESTRICTING INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL OF PEOPLE INFECTED WITH HIV

MAKES PEOPLE THE ENEMY OF SOCIETY, WHO IN TURN WOULD ACT LIKE THE ENEMY,
CONTRIBUTE TO CRIME, AND ACT IN OTHER IRRESPONSIBLE WAYS. INSTEAD, WE
NEED PEOPLE WITH HIV TO IDENTIFY WITH SOCIETY AND BE SOCIALLY RESPONSI-
BLE, AS WELL AS SOME IN HIGH-PROFILE POSITIONS. EVERY COUNTRY NEEDS A
MAGIC JOHNSON. ON THE OTHER HAND, CUBA INITIATED A FORCED TESTING AND
HUMANE QUARANTINE POLICY THAT SEEMS TO HAVE WORKED WELL.
Additional Actions for tssue 14

We need to study what people do once they are notified that they are HIV positive
and then base policy on that research. What is the socioeconomic impact of a 25%
infection rate? We need to learn how to do contract tracing without being counterproduc-
tive. UNAIDS is new; it is doing a good job of collecting information, but it is too soon
to say how coordination of policy implementation will work. . . . Improve and standardize
governments’ information systems for management of HIV. Get all physicians involved
in confidential case reporting. Information is the front line of defense. . . . Stop legaliza-
tion of prostitution; educate people through media to treat sexual problems correctly.
2.15. WORK, UNEMPLOYMENT, LEISURE, AND UNDEREMPLOYMENT ARE CHANGING
Automation, globalization of business, regional trade agreements, the shifting locus
of low labor costs, improved productivity, the aging of the population, and the drive
for improved corporate efficiency are causing changes in the labor forces of almost all
nations. The changes include the increasing percentage in service sector employment
while the manufacturing percentage is falling; the ratio of retired relative to active
workers is growing almost everywhere, placing an economic burden on workers in the
future; the displacement of many low-skilled, well-paid workers in the developed world
occurring simultaneously with a shortage of people with adequate skills; the inability of
some developing countries to use developed technologies effectively. Underemployment
and isolation of women from the cash economy remain important issues in developing
countries. The fundamental shift in how the “world’s” work gets done is creating a truly
global labor force, yet lack of training and access divide labor into those who are capable
of performing high-paying work and those who are not. If world demand for a work-
force is significantly less than the supply, will there then be more creative uses of leisure,
or will chronic, turbulent, destabilizing under- and unemployment result?
New technologies, the continuing drive for higher productivity, the global search
for low-cost labor, and the aggressive movement into markets that promise the most
growth, such as in China, are forces that are changing who works and what work
they perform. These forces will change, displace, underemploy, and unemploy anyone
caught unprepared.
With the transition from an industrial to a service economy, the rise of the newly
industrialized countries (like Mexico and Indonesia), and the displacement of workers,
structural unemployment in the form of labor surplus is a potential problem worldwide.
It is far from clear what form the new world of work will ultimately take, but there is
much to be concerned about-and excited by-in the transition that is taking place
ahead. It will affect lifestyles, leisure, quality of life, and working relationships worldwide.
Unemployment is especially difficult in the former USSR, where the concept of
unemployment was relatively unknown and people do not want to change their profes-
sion. Women are adapting better than men. Although a market economy is very impor-
tant, we cannot neglect the importance of planning and forecasting. In making labor
forecasts, we have to include not only local factors, but global technological and con-
sciousness changes as well. Consider the reemployment of retired workers and their
relationship with unemployed youth.. . . Work used to be something you did to contribute
to the economic system, but now it is more for self-expression and self-development.
. . . Successful work integrates with your life, intertwining work, play, and leisure
Statistics about working hours increasing or decreasing can be misleading. If work is
integrated into your whole life and you lose that job, your life seems destroyed. Seg-
menting one’s life has some advantages. . . It would be nice if we could escape from
the connection between work and the economic cycle by having machines doing all the
work that no one wants to do and yet still receive a guaranteed minimum income. This
would let us be more human without being a challenge to some other part of the system.
Then we could navigate and converse.
Actions to Address Issue 1.5, with a Range of Views on These Actions

2.15.1. NGOS. CORPORATIONS. AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHOIILD
APPLY INFORMATION/COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES IN DEVELOPING (‘OLJN-
TRIES IN WAYS THAT IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY IN LOW-INCOME COMMIJNITIES. A
pairing should be developed with developing regions as possible.
2.15.2. GOVERNMENTS AND NGOS SHOULD PROMOTE PUBLIC/PRIVATE FUNDING
OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN DISTANCE LEARNING TECHNOLOGIES.
Most
countries have begun this action. . . . It is also helpful for collecting and coordinating
information among the federal, regional, and local authorities about unemployment.
job listings, and training centers’ activities. Regional authorities are an impediment to
rapid implementation of this action, and it is difficult to forecast what skills will be
necessary as we make this economic transition. Businesses should also participate
in funding.
2.15.3. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD BUILD INCENTIVES INTO THE SYSTEM TO PRO-
MOTE EDUCATION. FOR EXAMPLE, JAPAN IMPROVES THE TECHNOLOGICAL LITER-
ACY OF ITS POPULACE BY OFFERING INCENTIVES (SUCH AS OVERNIGHT ELECTRONIC
TRANSFER OF TAX REFUNDS TO THOSE CITIZENS WHO FILE THEIR INCOME TAX
STATEMENTS ELECTRONICALLY). It is essential to educate the public about the rate
of change they will face. . . Only by competition can learning consciousness be promoted,
and then social development and progress will follow.
2.15.4. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD FUND PROGRAMS IN COOPERATION WITH THE
PRIVATE SECTOR THAT USE THE EMERGING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AND
SHOULD CONSIDER IMPLICATIONS OF COGNITIVE SCIENCE FOR DESIGNING LEARN-
ING ENVIRONMENTS AND ACHIEVING EDUCATIONAL/TRAINING GOALS.
2.15.5. GOVERNMENT AND CORPORATIONS SHOULD FLJND AND MARKET LOW-
COST COMPUTER COMMUNICATIONS IN SCHOOLS. LIBRARIES. BUSINESSES. HOSPI-
TALS, ETC.
2.15.6. NGOS SHOULD INITIATE PROGRAMS EVERYWHERE THAT LJSE CONSTRIIC-
TIVE USES FOR LEISURE-LIKE HABITAT FOR HUMANITY AND THE PEACE CORPS.
2.15.7. UN ORGANIZATIONS, WITH SOME LEADERSHIP BY GOVERNMENTS.
SHOULD ESTABLISH INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS OF RETRAINING TO HELP AVOID
TECHNOLOGICAL OBSOLESCENCE.
2.15.8. UN ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD INITIATE SOME MAJOR PROJECTS IN IHE
SOCIAL SCIENCES TO UNDERSTAND THE MEANING AND PURPOSE OF WORK AS A
DESIRE AND SOURCE OF MEANING IN VARIOIJS PARTS OF THE WORLD.
2.15.‘). THE PRIVATE SECTOR, GOVERNMENTS, AND NGOS SHOULD CREATE’I-OLL-
FREE TELEPHONE NUMBERS AND COMPUTER NETWORKS TO MATCH DEMAND AND
SUPPLY OF LABOR AMONG THE DEVELOPING, NEWLY DEVELOPED. AND MORE DE-
VELOPED NATIONS.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Sum
2-1m23 13
4-1 1m 22
8 -3 -1 -2
Fig. 3. Cross-impact among the issues.
Additional Action for Issue 15

Shift payroll and income taxes to ecological taxes.
2.16 MAPPING THE ISSUES

These issues are not independent; they are interdependent; hence, one can intensify
or mitigate another. Taken together, they form a network of intertwining forces that
will shape the future. Just how do they interact? How will a change in one affect the
others? Will it intensify or diminish them? If such questions could be answered, then
root causes could be addressed.
The Millennium Project staff constructed a modified cross-impact matrix4 to map
and explore the interactions among the 15 issues. The cells in the matrix were filled in
by asking what the impacts are of the issues in the left column on the issues listed along
the top row. In Figure 3, an entry of +3 was used to indicate that continuing influence
of the issue in the row would have a major causal effect on the issue in the column,
and a -3 was used to indicate a major effect in the decrease in the issue’s growth.
Thus, the occurrence of Issue 2.1, “World population is growing,” was judged to cause
a major (+3) increase in Issue 2.2, “Fresh water is becoming scarce.” The advent of
Issue 2.8, “The status of women is changing,” was judged to have a major negative
impact (-3) on Issue 2.1, “World population is growing,” since as women’s status
improves, fertility rates decrease. The numbers are then added across the rows to see
which issues have more influence on the others. The numbers are added as whole
numbers-e.g., -3 and 3 would be totaled as an impact of 6, not an impact of 0. The
last column gives these totals.
Readers are encouraged to rate these impacts themselves. The exercise helps one
think through the cross impacts of the issues, but one should not take the numbers too
seriously. The staffs ratings found the “most significant” to be Issue 2.10, “Information
JFor an overview of the uses of cross-impact analysis, see Frontiers of Futures Research: A Handbook
on Tools and Methods. Produced by the Millennium Project Feasibility Study for UNDP African Futures and
available at (http://nko.org/millennium/methods.html).
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 24Y
technology offers both promise and perils,” with two issues as a very close second: Issue
2.1, “World population is growing,” and Issue 2.12, “Economic growth brings both
promising and threatening consequences.” Figure 4 illustrates another, less quantitative
way of displaying these interactions. Solid-line arrows show +3 effects, and the dotted-
line arrows show -3 impacts.
2.17. OBSERVATIONS AND COMMON THEMES

Many participants noted that this year’s work focused mostly on issues or problems
that left an exploration of positive developments for a later date. Yet even with this
problem-oriented focus, almost all participants identified practical and potentially effec-
tive actions to address the issues. There were disagreements on the actions as presented
previously. but the areas of agreement were significant and in the aggregate present a
stunning framework for global action.
In almost all cases, one or more participants said about each of the 15 issues, “This
issue is fundamental to all of the others.” For example. improved decision-making
affects the ability to address all issues; the gap between the rich and poor can lead the
world into continuous instability-and so forth. Intelligent policy implemented in one
area can help in other areas-perhaps most areas-as well. But the reverse is true also:
neglect one, and all may deteriorate. Hence, it is important to see the whole picture to
understand the importance of individual issues and actions.
In responding to the questionnaires and during the interviews, most respondents
commented on the global state of affairs, both at present and in the future. and suggested
or implied actions that they thought would be beneficial. In reviewing their comments,
certain common themes seem to emerge. Some of those themes and a sampling of the
interview comments and observations that support these observations are presented below.
Interviewee Comments
2.17.1. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL ISSUES IDENTIFIED IN THIS REPORT ARE
INTERDEPENDENT-BY IMPROVING ONE, OTHERS ARE ALSO IMPROVED-AND THE
ACTIONS To ADDRESS THESE IssuEs ARE MOSTLY MUTI :ALLY REENFORCING. The
earth is ready for democratic, transparent, and participatory global planning, global
institutions, global resources, and global action, applied to local expressions of global
problems. . . . This global strategy and global actions will not be easy. But it will be
the only way to organize existing intellectual, scientific, technical, and financial resources
available in our days. Through a global institution, as distinct from an international
one, like the UN, humankind will be in a position to face situations like the genocide
we recently faced in Zaire and Rwanda. Global institutions are composed of several
sectors, such as national governments, corporations. the UN and other international
organizations, NGOs, individuals, and other groups. . . . The lack of a holistic view of
the human situation is a failure behind many of the trends identified in round 1 of the
1996 Global Look-Out study. . The number of players in decisions is increasing,
making decision-making more complex. Consider: does China have to be poor to save
the world environment? . . . Nations can “pool” their sovereignty to address issues
beyond their borders that they cannot manage alone.
2.172. SUSTAINABILITY IS A CONCEPT THAT PROVIDES USEFUL GUIDANCE TO
POLICY. MANY POLICIES ARE NOW BASED ON PERCEPTIONS OF THEIR IMPACTS ON
SUSTAINABILITY; THIS INCLUDES SCIENTIFIC, TECHNICAL. AND ECONOMIC ANALY-
SES OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND THE VALUE AND EXTENT OF RESOURCES.
Facing the conflicts between economy and ecology, we (China) have to choose the way
of sustainable development, which should be environmentally sound. economically
‘_
:
‘.
:..
\ \
productive, and behaviorally acceptable. To promote this, we have to combine technical,

institutional, and cultural measures through cooperation among policy-makers, indus-
tries, and the public. . . Presently. there are more than 60 Comprehensive Experimental
Communities for Social Development, more than 50 ecological counties in China.
Both economic and social development should be carried out in light of a theory of
sustainable Idevelopment. Resources and environmental factors must be incorporated
in the assessment of economic development, and differences among different countries
and regions must also be taken into consideration. . . We should have great contidencc
in our development trajectory to sustainable development.. China pays much attention
to sustainable development. Most scientists, corporation managers, leadership, and even
some citizens in China are talking about sustainable development.
217.3. MANY DESIRABLE POLICIES--ESPECIALLY THOSE ADDRESSIN<; ENVIRON-
MENTAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS-ARE DEPENDENT ON ScIENTIFIc‘. TE<‘li-
NICAL, AND ECONOMIC STANDARDS THAT DO NOT YET EXIST. Create international
databases of people connected with these materials [biological and chemical weapons];
create standards for management of these materials and common international training
of personnel so that each knows what counterparts will be doing in critical situations.
. . International data standards [pertinent to detection of international crime] should
be established, such that forecasting could be done. . . . UN organizations should become
increasingly involved in this issue [terrorism] by setting international standards of behav-
ior, regulations, and the legislative base to manage terrorism. . . The role of government
[in telecommunications] needs definition: the WTO. ITU. EU, and other international
organizations can help coach governments on their role in promoting global harmoniza-
tion of communications rules and standards. . . We must create some measures fl)r
standardization, where possible, and expert software systems. It is so obvious that
this [implementation of environmental full-cost accounting] should be done, but no one
can do it until the scientists come to agreement about these issues. So tirst organize
the scientific research to answer these issues, and then talk about how to implement
solutions. . Tradeable pollution permits won’t work until we know what are the
criteria and standards to be used for these permits and who determines what is polluting
and what are the acceptable or tolerable limits.. An international system of certifcation
and control of export should be established to prevent production and export of ccologi-
tally “dirty” products. This cannot be done immediately. but we should move in the
direction of international standards among countries. Complete treaties with stan-
dards and reporting, including those that protect the rights of women and children.
2.17.4. ECONOMIC GROWTH PROVIDES THE MEANS TO INCREASE EMPLOYMEN’I‘.
TO HELP SOLVE ENVIRONMENTAL PROI3LEMS. TO IMPROVE THE GENERAL WELFARE.
AND TO PROMOTE POLITICAL STABILITY. The futurists and scholars found a number
of developments relating to both negative and positive consequences of growth that
were condensed into Issue 2.12. Policy-makers were very different. They focused on
the positive consequences of growth and the necessity of it to address the other issues
in this report.
Implementation of policies that promote economic growth should be a priority of
all nations. With good policy, growth and improved environmental conditions can
coexist. . . . [Increasing effort to promote free trade] should be the top priority instead
of [more conventional] aid. . . . If trade rules included environmental efficiency criteria
and GDP accounts and prices included social costs, trade could move more toward
sustainable economic development. . . I would like to note one more problem. It is
the problem of employment and unemployment in poor countries. Novel technologies
do not solve this problem. The unemployed population form the base for the increasing
of terrorism, crime groups, etc. . . . People must work to survive, which is increasingly
important in China. . . . The most critical problem for Russia is unemployment. It is a
new problem for us, because the ideology of the socialist model of evolution dominated
in Russia for decades. There was not even the concept of unemployment in this ideology.
. . . The unemployed population creates the background of growth of crime and instability
in society. . . . [We believe that] only about 20% of the unemployed population is
registered at the labor exchange in my country.
2.17.5. SINCE EDUCATION IS ONE OF THE FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES TO AD-
DRESS MOST OF THE GLOBAL ISSUES IN THIS REPORT, IT IS TIME TO IDENTIFY THE
MOST COST-EFFECTIVE EDUCATIONAL MATERIALS, CURRICULA, AND DISTRIBUTION
MEDIA FOR GLOBAL EDUCATION AND INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS TO ACCEL-
ERATE LEARNING. Increasing the qualifications of women through education should
be a priority to help solve the population problem. . . . Add improvement of people’s
education and quality of life in general. . . . Before new credit is wholesaled to countries
for microcredit, conditions should be attached that improve democratic governance,
training, and education. . . . Encourage multinational corporations to get more involved
in education. . . . The gap between rich and poor countries cannot be closed by redistribu-
tion of resources, but by completing the organization of their economies and educational
systems. . . . Consider media and education programs to demonstrate alternatives to
violence in solving problems. . . . Couple education to change attitudes in addition to
enforcing legislation. . . . Media moguls should take on more responsibility in terms of
not resorting to the politics of confrontation but using the process of education. . . .
We need education at treatment centers and contact tracing. This was the strategy that
reduced sexually transmitted diseases before. . . . These strategies need consensus.
Consensus requires moral education.
2.17.6. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGIES CAN HELP SOLVE
MANY GLOBAL PROBLEMS, BUT COULD INTENSIFY OTHERS. THE FALLING COSTS
AND RISING POWER OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ARE POWERFUL INFLUENCES
ON THE ISSUES CONSIDERED HERE. With global communications, advanced work
like software development in India can be imported as a kind of “reversed brain drain”
to create work that is worth doing. . . . Although the perceived gap in living standards
is exacerbated by improving global communications, these same telecommunications
capabilities can play a role in addressing this issue. For example, telemedicine and tele-
education can significantly help reduce the actual gap in living standards. . . There is
no question that information technology is transforming the human rights struggle
around the world. . . The potential for damage, as we get more dependent on information
technology, could be more than conventional weapons, especially when one contem-
plates the possibilities of information warfare. . . . Remember the human factor in this
is education. People must be educated and trained to use these new technologies well.
Otherwise, we get the underdeveloped use of developed technologies. It is not simply
enough to buy computers. Too many developing countries invest important amounts
of money to buy hardware and software that are never correctly used. The loss is not
only in money, but in time and effective application of technology for development,
resulting in despair.
2.17.7. PROACTIVE MANAGEMENT WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT IN THE FUTURE;
LINKING EARLY-WARNING SYSTEMS TO POLITICAL DECISIONS IS CURRENTLY MORE
ILLUSION THAN FACT. Early intervention by threatening or even bombing would have
deterred most of the violence in the former Yugoslavia. . . . It is difficult to connect
early warning to appropriate action. Although there is better sharing of intelligence

now, governments will not let their intelligence systems be used by the UN in the same
way the UN Security Council can use governments’ military force. . . , Making decisions
among sovereign states is a central problem. Diplomats tend to let things go until they
become a crisis. We are increasingly faced with issues that cut across national boundaries.
Coordination among nation-states can be a way to avoid making decisions. The rain
forest in Brazil is still shrinking, even though the greatest international coordination
efforts in history have been created by UNCED in Brazil. . . . Previous attempts appeal
to moral values; instead, focus on political and economic cost/benefit analyses (millions
of dollars to cure the problem versus funds for early intervention to prevent the problem).
We also need to establish criteria on when to intervene against a sovereign nation-
state. . . . If these early-warning systems were implemented as a global or international
system, then the government would be more likely to act on the information.
2.17.X. TECHNOLOGY MAY HAVE ITS PROBLEMS, BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF NEW
TECHNOLOGIES IS ESSENTIAL IF SOME OF THE WORLD’S MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE TO
BE SOLVED. Begin immediate research and development programs to produce the
means for producing inexpensive water from salt water. . . I think one action-i.e.,
development of new technology (clean production, zero emissions, etc.) in light of
sustainable development-should be added [to the list of actions]. . . The best solution
to this problem is the development of agriculture based on biotechnology. . . . Most
problems have a technological fix. Bill Reilley, [former] head of the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA), said the US has solved its environmental problems [by
regulation]. The Hemlock Society in the US is even advising those wanting to commit
suicide not to use post-1993 autos, because the emissions will no longer kill them! .
Science and technology can feed the world. . . . Research on measures to reduce water
consumption and to improve efficiency of water use should be organized by government
with scientists working cooperatively. . . The need for more electricity is clear. The
alternatives to nuclear power are not too promising. Fossil power plants are cheap and
quick, but contribute to global warming. Fusion always seems to be 40 years in the
future no matter when the problem is examined. . . Sure, it would be helpful to explore
electricity-generating alternatives, but nothing on the horizon seems promising. Solar?
That won’t save us. . . . Others say solar energy can save us. . . Ground solar and solar
power satellites could produce a significant portion of global energy.. . . The introduction
of novel technologies will result in decreasing demand on natural resources as well as
decreasing pollution of the environment.
2.17.9. THE STRENGTHENING OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND INVEN-
TION OF OTHER ORGANIZATIONS AND GLOBAL AUTHORITIES “WITH REAL BUT LIM-
ITED POWERS” ARE NECESSARY TO SUCCESSFULLY ADDRESS THE ISSUES IN THIS
REPORT. A KEY FACTOR WILL BE THE EMERGING RELATIONSHIP OF GLOBAL CORPO-
RATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS. There are good and bad in all
things: growth, information technology. etc.; when the bad outweighs the good, then
international organizations should intervene. . . . The global agreement on CFCs (Mon-
treal Accords) shows that it is possible to reach important decisions. . The evolution
of the EU has shown that supranational decision-making is possible. . . All international
organizations will have to rethink their purpose and structure. . . The secretary-general
of the UN has a clear mandate to implement change of the UN system of organizations.
. . . Include a new social contract between business and government. . . . International
organizations should be active in preparing the intellectual background for implementa-
tion of [many of the actions in this report]. . . . This cannot be done immediately, but
we should move in the direction of international standards among countries.
2.17.10. GLOBALIZATION IS A TREND AFFECTING ALL 15 ISSUES, THAT IS RAPIDLY
EVOLVING WITH LITTLE SUCCESS IN CREATING A GLOBAL LEGAL FRAMEWORK.
Global authoritativeness, not world government, is part of the solution. . . . It [disposal
of nuclear waste] is an imminent global threat looking for an immediate global solution.
. . . We need a global agreement that the elimination of poverty* economic growth
is the top priority. . . . The global availability of CNN may also educate, in terms of
changing attitudes and cultures. . . . Privatization is a global trend that will influence
the future development of cyberspace. . . . Now the question is how best to do the
market approach in an increasingly global economy. . . . In making labor forecasts, we
have to include local factors, global technological, and consciousness changes. . . . Global
harmonization of standards and rules is being made more possible by the Internet. . .
“Global partnership for development” should be the new role for the reorganized
Britten Woods Organizations in cooperation with the OECD and UN organizations.
. Now with global communications, advanced work like software development can
be imported as a kind of “reverse brain drain.” . . . Is there a third alternative to a
system of national sovereignty or global government? . . . Terrorism is a virus that is
growing. No global system exists to stop it. . . Governments don’t control the prices;
the global market and cartels control the prices of natural resources. . . . Global telecom-
munications reduces the need for middleman retailers; buyer and supplier can meet
directly in cyberspace, making geography and social status irrelevant. . . . Small businesses
and microenterprises will be different, perhaps just a consortium of friends, but op-
erating globally.
2.17.11. MULTICULTURAL DISCOURSES ARE REQUIRED TO IDENTIFY COMMON
ETHICS AND NEW NORMS FOR THE GLOBALIZED MILIEU OF THE FUTURE. We do
not lack increasingly sophisticated computer systems; we lack the global ethical basis
for decision-making. The crucial part of education is wisdom over and beyond knowledge
and information. . . . The number of problem countries is declining, even in Africa.
The remaining problems [stem from] kleptocrats who plunder their country’s treasuries.
Nigeria does not really have the foreign debt it is supposed to, but the balancing entry
is in the form of Swiss bank accounts and real estate in London. . . . Recognition,
understanding, and respect for local values, culture and the way of thinking in developing
democratic countries are of prime importance for the emerging global order. . . . Leaders
need to understand these global issues and actions because incompetence can lead
to corruption. t
Updates
These issues, actions, and ranges of views will form the basis for a series of briefings
to be conducted by the Millennium Project staff and by chairs of the project’s nodes
around the world. Feedback on these briefings and on this book will be used to update
next year’s report.
3. Scenarios
3.1 OBJECTIVES
The iginal Millennium Project design anticipated that global issues would surface
in three ways. The first was through the activities of a “look-out” panel describing
7
current’developments that seemed to have important future consequences. The second
approach involved scanning published literature to uncover developments of the same
sort. The third method was through the construction of scenarios depicting plausible
future states of the world and the future histories leading to these images. It was known
from the beginning that limitations in funding and time would prevent the development
of full scenarios with appropriate study of all the pathways they uncovered. But in this
first year of operation, the project decided to at least sketch scenarios, using a systematic
approach that might be expanded in the future, and to review the scenario literature
to identify important and useful scenarios that could be the basis of future work.
Scenarios-and indeed all futures research methods-can be either exploratory or
normative; that is, they can produce images of expected futures or desired futures.
Exploratory forecasts portray futures that seem plausible, given actions or inactions of
key players, exogenous developments, chance, and the internal dynamics of the system
under study. Exploratory forecasts respond to the question: “What do you think the
future might be?” Normative forecasts describe the hoped-for future; these forecasts
also can be produced with either qualitative or quantitative methods. While utopia
literature and science fiction fit here, the methods can be quite systematic. Normative
forecasts respond to the question: ‘-What kind of future would you like to see?”
In this year’s work, the study team focused only on exploratory scenarios: the
project intends to include both exploratory and normative scenarios later. The project
was fortunate in receiving normative scenarios for consideration (see Section 3.4): these
were helpful in illustrating the complexity and depth that will have to be considered in
subsequent scenario analyses.
A scenario is a narrative description of the future that focuses attention on causal
processes and decision points. No scenario is ever seen as probable; the probability of
any scenario ever being realized is vanishingly small. It is not accuracy that is the
measure of a good scenario: the more appropriate measures are
?? plausibility (telling the story about getting from here to there in a rational fashion),
?? internal self-consistency, and
?? usefulness in decision-making.
Sets of scenarios are used in planning; if the sets encompass a broad span of futures
and plans are generated to cope with the eventualities they portray, then the plans are
robust and the future can be met with some degree of confidence.
3.2 SCENARIO CONSTRUCTION

To develop world scenarios that are encompassing, self-consistent, innovative, and
useful is a tall order. Limiting the focus to regions or countries doesn’t help much, since
complexity seems to be constant at any level of detail. This fractal nature of scenarios
is, of course, similar to other nonlinear systems that can be driven into chaotic states.
Nevertheless, the study team and six experienced members of the staff of The Futures
Group began by asking about the principal dimensions along which descriptors of future
worlds might vary. The list was a long one and included economic, political, social, and
technological factors such as
?? concentration of government,
?? dimensions and directions of trade,
?? income gap between individuals and nations,
?? technology gaps (developed to developing nations and among groups in any
society),
?? single-instance developments, such as very cheap power,
Harmon. Econ. sot. Focus

Case 1: increasing strong individualism
harmonization economy
Case 2: increasing strong community
Case 3: increasing weak indiviclllism

Case 4: increasing weak community

Case 5: decreasing strong individualism
Case 6: decreasing strong community
Case 7: decreasing weak individualism
Case 8: decreasing weak community

Fig. 5. Scenarios.
the focus of social interest-from concentration on the individual to emphasis

on community,
integration of ethnic communities into tile mainstream,
population growth and differentials, and
levels of education.
In the end, the team chose the following three dimensions for its scenario space:
??The level of harmonization; that is, the degree of coordination in the world. For
example, a world in which a single set of communications standards existed
would be “harmonized.” The scale used described changes from the present; in
one direction was increasing harmonization and in the other decreasing (Figure 5).
?? Economic vitality in an overall global sense: from strong to weak.
?? Social focus: from concentration on the individual to concentration on the com-
munity.
._
Clearly, if the team said that a giveh scenario included a strong economy, it need not
be so everywhere simultaneously; rather, these were taken to be descriptors of the
general state of things (Figures 6-8).
3.3 THE SELECTED SCENARIOS

Case 1. Cybertopia
The explosive growth of the Internet accelerated globalization in all forms: financial
integration, democratization, free markets, and business and political alliances. Cyber-
space became the medium of human activity, as the city had once been during the
industrial transition. The majority of human waking hours were spent in cyberspace.
Falling prices, increasing capacity, and simplified microminiaturized computers
connected almost everyone to anyone, anytime, anywhere, on nearly anything that could
be digitized. People became accustomed to interacting around the world every day for
work, play, leisure, and education. Men were once the harbingers of cyberspace, but
CHARACTERISTICS MATRIX Case 1 Case 3 Case 8
Cybertopia The Aftermath A Mean World
Demographics, Population OS projected as projected as projected
Human Migration low low high
Resources Health good deteriorating who can afford?
Food ond Water good good deteriorating
Education on-line expensive only the dedicated
Leisure intl. on-line games who can afford it? time hangs heavy
Environment Po/lution economically and economically and economically and
and culturally driven culturally driven culturally driven
Biodiversity Biodiversity economically and economically and economically and

culturally driven culturally driven culturally driven
Technology Information, Communications sizzling being repaired languishing
Biomedicine and Psychiatry computer assisted lots of stress stress stress
Search for Knowledge all you need on line what is truth? where are the jobs?
Machines electronics R&D lags R&D lags
Governance War and Political Stability world standards shaky lots of tensionstabilize
and Conflict Terrorism and Crime viruses everywhere who trusts the system? petty crime abounds
Governance outomated town meetings govmts shaky demagoguery abounds
International Rich Poor and Other Gaps diminishing growing only rich are making it
Economics, Organizations global on line wary relationships coming apart
Wealth Work cybernuts iobs in recovery where is work
World Trade linked on the net flight to quality, liquidity slow to build
Integration and Planning models study complexity if only we could
Whole Futures The Pursuit of Meoning through VR what risks are OK? only in books
Socral Change isolation via electronrcs the gaps grow siege mentality
Fig. 6. Characteristics matrix.

1 24. High population growth among poor nations 14 108 Presence of HIV in 25% of the adult
and people. 1 42 1.44 population of essentially all clhes I” sub-Sahara
Africa 1.91 182
2 40 Increased scarcity of fresh water, possibly
exacerbated by global worming 1.68 1.47 15 23 33 Religious, roc~ol, and ethic wars such ~1s
Rwanda and Liberia. I 54 1.82
3 129. Threat of reaionol nuclear conflict when
more and more countries and potenttally 16 70 Organized crime groups becomlng
terrorist groups will have access to nuclear sophisticated global enterprises with the know
WeapCl”s. 2.30 1.51 how to yield enormcws illegal profits (information
fraud, organ traffic, arms trofflc, etc ). 1 .72 1.83
4 74. The wdening economic gap between the
‘haves’ and ‘have riots’’ within and between 17 8. lncreosing number of micro-organisms
countries. 1.58 1.54 that are immune to pharmaceuticals or
pesticides 1.71 I 84
5 39. Increased food scarcity owing to
population growth and o general lnobillty 18 57 Improving economic status of many
to ~ncreose production to keep up with “developing” countres, thus lncreaslng global
that growth 1.97 1.57 demand for food, energy and manufactured
products. 1 74 1 86
6 55. Globalizaton increasingly clear demand
for global thinking, responsibility, ethics, 19 67. Increasing failure of governments in 1 st
approach, effort, action and results. 1.88 1.58 world countries due to inability to manage
complex systems wldemng gap between rate
7 127. Destruction of the environment, especially
of technological change and societal/
loss of biodiversity. 1.96 1.64
institutional change 202 187
8 1 13. lncreaslng reststance to antibiotics.
20 9. lncreoslngly apparent conflicts between
1.57 1.68
economy and socletol aims. economic
9 3, 37,134. Nuclear terrorism and measurement and Incentives subvert SOCIO
proliferation posing far more of a threat to growth 204 191
the survival of the human speces than IS
21 48 Increased frequency of re-emerg,ng
generally appreciated. 2.49 1.68
and new dwxses 1.92 I 92
10 27 Doubling of the demand for energy in
22 12. Increasing complexity of issues that lead
less than 30 years as D result of population
to confhct, outstripping ability of Instttutlons to
and econormc growth 210 169
anhclpote and deal wtth the issues 2 27 193
11 30, 135 Industrialization of China, I&a, etc.,
23 75. Natural resources being bought up by
increasing the load on the environment by a
international cartels, with unprecedented
factor of five to ten. 2.14 1 71
speed and scale, in a decade, 7096 of the
12 126. The uneven and unfair distribution of natural resources I” the world will be controlled
wealth among notlons [North South divide] by private financial powers. 2.25 1 93
and also within natIons. 1 54 1 74
24 14 A false sense of secut~ty about the extent
13 1 17. Changing role of women I” society. of natural lesO”lceS 233 193
1 57 1 78
25 130. The lncreoslng deterioration of the
International monetary system based mainly
on US dollars 2 48 1.94
Fig. 7. Table of leading developments.
the potential of a “digital ceiling” posing as a barrier to women gave way simply to the
quality of interactions that could not be judged by gender, age, race, or religious
affiliation. Global toll-free numbers and corporate global networks flourished; these
networks were not just for settlement, but were the meeting place of choice where
auctions were held and bids were placed for manufacturing and service work. These
industry networks were closed and essentially defined an industry. If your company was
on the Net, you were part of the industry; if not, your company was a renegade.
Decision-making speed was the key to success in this world; organizations burdened
by bureaucratic overhead were left behind.
This explosive growth in international activity translated into increased support
for and responsibilities of the UN family of organizations such as the WTO, ITU, and
others that provide global standards and cooperation for international business. Some
of these organizations were governmental; others, private. All sought new members;
all viewed themselves as global facilitators.
HE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 259
DEVELOPMENTS ORGANIZED BY
MILLENNIUM PROJECT DOMAINS:
I. InWonal Ewmmics and Wealth Cybertopia
II. EnvIronaental Change and Biodiversity
III. Teclmological Capacity Increasing
Hamonizatim
N. Demographics and Human Resnures
V. Governance and Conflict Strong Economy
VI. Regions and Nations Individwistic
odenlation
VII. Integration and whole Futures
24. High population growth among pm* nations

and people.
25.Thegrow!3
of use and effectiveness of
social marketing.
31,59. Development of a means of extending
life span by at least 25% through genetics or
bio-drugs.
38. Population gmwtb seen as necessary to

achieve econcmic gmwtb and human vitality.
79. Propowd pensiom schemes and incentives
to invite parents to have fewer 01no children.
92Discovq dnt the maintenance of the Upsof
DNA is common to “immortal cells” (sperm,
egg, and cancer cells) and hence, we may learn
how to ,wMicaUy emimer the we of different
114,132. Increasing life span and clmglng age
122. Development and widespread availability

of a chemical which permits the selection of a
male or female child before conception.
138. Drastic real&m in the quality of humm
wmlalion in the Third World in the next 15.20
&IS as a result of hunger, growth of infections
and clmmic diseases.
34. Ecological migration from comhies affected

bv desertificalion. flocxls.deforestation.
Project,leading to the capacity for predictive

diagnosis and anticipation of behavioral
Fig. 8. Developments organized by domains.

With easy access to world education and markets, individuals acted like holding
companies, investing their time in diverse activities, inventing their careers, granting
access to others as nations used to grant visas. Individuals easily switched loyalty from
one company to another. Most people had a sense of what they wanted to do and what
they had to do to achieve it. Individuals set their own values and used global networks
to support those values.
UN systems and multinational corporations formed many partnerships, such as
INSPACECO to manage orbital space activities, INEDSAT to manage global education,
and INMEDSAT to manage telemedicine. Mission to Planet Earth succeeded in environ-
mental monitoring necessary for UNEP’s coordination of environmental management.
Developing countries made remarkable progress via tele-education, telemedicine, tele-
business partners, and telecitizens in richer areas who assisted their poorer homelands.
The division between people was not as much by north-south, but by those who act
globally through technology and those who don’t.
In the old days, there was a high correlation between population growth rate and
GDP per capita; now, there seemed to be a correlation between population growth
rate and the intensity of use of cyberspace. Economists and demographers pointed out
that use of cyberspace generally correlated with income and that therefore the relation-
ship with population growth rate might be spurious; however, the direction was clear.
Unfortunately, unemployment-particularly in the cities-was still a problem. Al-
though INEDSAT made universal education possible, not all were able to make the
psychological transition to accepting the possibility of being independent entrepreneurs
in cyberspace. The knowledge economy left some people behind; most of these people
were poor. Entitlements seemed to be an archaic concept and the safety nets, such as
they are, were thin almost everywhere. Global social welfare standards via the WTO
became necessary to prevent migrations of the poor, and mega-corporation social mar-
keting kept social order.
In both China and India, writing of software for games and more serious pursuits
became a major source of employment. It came as no surprise, therefore, that people
in these countries were large users of cyberspace. Industrialization in both countries
benefited from the savings of these high-end service-sector employees. To a degree,
the need for external capital was diminished by this source, and therefore industrializa-
tion could proceed with less need for external borrowing. The environmental impact
of this industrialization was a bit less than it might have been, since the cyberspace
linkages provided countries with access to technology and information about modern
practices. .
The question was not whether there was uneven distribution of wealth between
rich and poor countries or between rich and poor within a country, but whether the
widespread use of cyberspace intensified or diminished this disparity. In 1996, the UNDP
reported that the wealth of the top 384 billionaires on the one hand equaled the wealth
of the lowest 2.3 billion people in the world on the other. Those who argued that
cyberspace would diminish the disparity pointed out the new opportunities for collabora-
tion, education, and self-employment that the Net provided. Those who argued against
this theory said that the advantages of the new medium were unequally distributed and
that a new class of billionaire was being made so that this ostensibly democratizing
technology just gave advantage to another set of people.
Like-minded people sought each other and met on the Internet; the geographic
barriers dissipated. Thus, while cyberspace made some activities that had been local
global, it made others that had been diffuse concentrated. People that held similar views
on a political issue joined together on the Net. While sociologists still did not agree,
many felt that this centripetal component helped focus on dimensional issues and that
what had been a small issue in a remote community suddenly attracted global support.
Racial and ethnic identity was the glue of many of these special-interest groups. Where
there was a geographic focus, others, from the safety of remote locations, could blow
on the flames of simmering animosities. Thus, the Internet, apparently neutral politically.
by linking like-minded people, fostered dissent.
The development of cyberspace created what came to be known as a global brain:
that is, the interconnected minds of people, especially those commonly related by interest
or concern. If it was a global brain, it was confused: the groups that connected on any
single topic rarely came to a consensus; the range of opinion was wide and vociferously
held. The ability to converge in open forums was often elusive. Some historians called
this the “age of automated anarchy.” Parliaments everywhere used opinion polls and
the Net to collect opinions to guide their votes, but the sample was highly skewed, and
in the end, the din and cacophony almost overwhelmed clear thinking and political
responsibility. A few networks managed to produce results. These were Nets that
connected scholars, politicians, and thinkers, not to produce consensus, but rather to
explore options. Since membership was global in scope, they were able to transcend
self-interest, but often they were accused of elitism since it was by invitation only.
Nevertheless, a few Nets were responsible and made a difference in diplomacy and
problem-solving.
The conventional monetary system was replaced in most countries by a new form
of international currency: electronic credits. The precursor was the transition of direct
mail from postal catalogs to “buying on the Net.” This transition required that a new form
of electronic currency be developed, and it was. Just as the gold standard disappeared, so
did currency; the triggering development was the introduction of an accounting system
that proved very hard to penetrate, although some cynics said that governments still
could do it if they wished. Hacking into the system became a capital crime. There arose
great suspicion that governments in their secret meetings manipulated the records so
as to control global inflation-that may be, but the system seemed to work.
Improved record-keeping and international databases helped mitigate food crises
in two ways. First, the ability of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
(FAO) to predict local famines was greatly improved. The warning time moved from
being only a matter of days to providing weeks, enough time to begin to modify the
cumbersome distribution system that made food more available to those who otherwise
would soon go hungry. Second, international genome databases containing the sequences
of high-yield and insect-resistant strains provided agriculture laboratories everywhere
with information on which research programs could provide the information on which
to base the production of indigenous crops with desired characteristics. Despite these
improvements, some pockets of starvation persisted, owing in part to physical distribu-
tion problems, but the overall crisis was significantly mitigated by databases that drew
attention to trouble spots much earlier than before.
By 2000, one of the major concerns of futurists and environmentalists was the
depletion of fresh water. To address this concern. the growth of international record-
keeping advanced a collaborative Mission to Planet Earth through the formation of
fresh water databases that showed in more detail than ever before where the water
was, who was using it, and, most importantly, what the inefficiencies in use were. The
databases formed the basis for international agreements and some time was gained.
Nevertheless, the clock kept ticking. and the inevitability of population and economic
growth continued to place great pressures on fresh water supplies. For richer countries,
desalination and other techniques were possible as supplies became scarce; however,
it was still an issue that remained unsolved for poorer countries.
Cyberspace affected energy demand in two ways. As the use of cyberspace spread,
national energy efficiency grew. Virtual experience substituted for travel; teleconferenc-
ing became normal. In addition, better record-keeping helped identify inefficient indus-
tries and usage. As a result, while it had been estimatecthat energy demand would
double in 30 years, now the estimates forecast a doubling in 4.5 years.
The international networks were extremely valuable to both environmental moni-
toring and environmental management. Not only could UNEP coordinate quickly and
globally, but whole new categories of records were established; one of the most significant
was a catalog of bacteria. Some economists used these databases as a means for establish-
ing systems of taxation and credits based on the uses of the commons. Nevertheless,
the environment and biodiversity still hung in the balance.
People still got sick and physicians had to deal with disease. Overprescription of
antibiotics had resulted in the survival of the fittest bacteria and the emergence of
strains that resisted antibiotics. The advent of cybertopia meant that the world’s health
organizations could keep score better than before. At least there were channels for global
distribution of information about antibiotic-resistant bacteria. There were databases for
recording the mutations and their genomes. These stimulated the search for new strate-
gies in dealing with the micro-organisms and developing new pharmaceutical research.
Personal health records became common. In countries where HIV prevalence was
high, these records were mandatory. There.were concerted efforts in these countries
to notify people who were thought to be sexual partners of a newly identified HIV-
positive person. In countries where HIV was still not epidemic, health records became
a requirement to obtain decent health insurance.
The old measure of “have” and “have not” was not as useful as before. It had
been almost totally economic: to “have” meant to be rich and “have not” meant poor.
The rich/poor gap was as striking as ever, but some people who might have been poor
in other times made the transition through tele-education, telemedicine, and telebusiness
partnerships. Some people who might have been richer missed the cyberspace boat and
slipped into mediocrity. As we have already noted, the division between people was
not so much by north-south, but by those who acted globally though technology and
those who did not. The people who were left behind were mostly poor. The sharpest
and most poignant divisions were within countries where ghettos of ignorance separated
the users of cyberspace from the nonusers. The situation was complex because these
ghettos overlapped to a large degree with the regions of drug use, crime, and poverty.
The new platform of the liberals called for minimum levels of access as a social right
belonging to all citizens. People in this movement donated used computers to the
poor and called on communications companies to donate access time to poor families.
However, this was an age of individualism, and the broad public response was “Anybody
who wants to can do it on their own. It’s much more meaningful to work for it.”
Connectivity also fostered crime. It was a new playground for criminals, from petty
counterfeiters of paper and electronic currency to major adventurers in embezzlement,
bribery, and theft. The profits were enormous and exposure of the crime was difficult,
although the same technology that was used to commit the crimes was also used to
step up increasingly effective detection. Computer usage was no longer offered as an
occupational therapy in penitentiaries; some sentences handed down to convicted felons
and terms of parole explicitly forbade the use of computers.
International law enforcement also benefited greatly from the detailed international
data that became available to search for and track potential terrorists and their modus
operandi, including the materials they were typically using. In addition, records of
sensitive materials improved. However, the more intensive tracking of suspected terror-
ists triggered the call for privacy protection and the opening of databases to public
scrutiny. The pendulum swung between the extremes of these poles, driven by the
recency of the latest terrorist act. In addition, there were several cases in which deliberate
falsification and deletion of records by terrorists were documented. if the verification
itself can be believed.
The Internet was the medium that the terrorists chose to make the announcement
of their nuclear threat. Calling attention to their position and beliefs is one of the
principal motivations that drive terrorists to their acts of violence: in the past. television
and newspapers were the media of choice. Now, with instant global access possible, tht
terrorists broadcast to 200 of the most populated listservs their intent to detonate a
nuclear weapon. The terrorists obtained their publicity without scrutiny, without any
authentication. The debate that followed centered on the following issues. First, was
the threat credible? Everybody had an opinion, but if anybody had facts, they couldn’t
be distinguished from those who were just guessing. Second, was the terrorists’ position
justified? A great public debate arose about the past ills-real or imagined-that had
led to the current sorry situation. Third. how did they get the material? And what is
being done about it? And once the terrorists identified the target city, the mass exodus
began. Copycats found it easy to publish in this way. as well. It was a mess. But the
outcome was that the threat of nuclear terrorism was now more tangible than it had
been, as was a distrust of information on the Net. As a result. a profession of on-line
authentication grew: news agencies led the way.
Case 3: The Aftermath

It took a shock to teach the lesson of working together.
While there was still some uncertainty as to the exact cause, most analysts believed
that the fiscal crisis of 1999 was triggered by the siphoning of capital from the interna-
tional financial flow of funds, deliberately and systematically, over a period of 10 years.
Corporations and governments pointed their fingers at the financial institutions and
those institutions had no rebuttal. Some people felt that behind the debacle was a new
sort of international criminal/terrorist, a group of politically adept computer experts
able to rebalance the books to avoid detection over long periods of time. Others felt
that it was old-fashioned greed and corruption. Certainly the huge debt amassed by
the Japanese and Chinese economies did not help stem the flood.
Whatever the cause, the house of cards crumbled with a resounding crash. In
leaving the system, the criminals/terrorists used a “scorched earth” policy and electroni-
cally slashed and burned international databases that could have been used to reconstruct
the history of their activities. The databases of important financial players such as
international banks, settlement institutions, and insurance companies were also trashed.
With these databases gone, markets tumbled, trust evaporated, banks failed. fortunes
on discs disappeared, the credit industry collapsed, bankruptcies proliferated. and the
world entered the deepest and longest depression on record.
Distrust in governments soared, but governments were the only game in town. The
world economy saw both inflation and deflation: when products piled up because (.)I
lack of buyers, prices tumbled. But when currency was short. as it was almost everywhere.
prices climbed. Corruption increased everywhere. International cartels attempted to

monopolize some natural resources.
In richer countries, the dimensions of the catastrophe were seen in failed social
security systems and pensions. Insurance companies could not easily reestablish the
extent of their asset bases or contracts. There was a liquidity crisis. Accounts could be
settled only by estimation or goodwill-and there was precious little of that. Paper
proofs of prior transactions, whenever they could be found, were invaluable and provided
back-ups to claims.
The poorer countries, particularly in Africa, became subsistence economies. With
food shortages in these countries, agriculture became local initially; people ate what
they grew. Trade and tourism dropped. Women in these countries became more active
in agriculture, and making small loans to women in agriculture was a strategy used by
NGOs and banks to prime the pump in the capital-poor world. But in many countries,
low-cost labor was the key to rebirth, and around the world. the locus of low-cost
labor shifted.
In this subsistence environment, the general state of health declined in poorer
countries, human immune systems seemed less able to cope with diseases once thought
to be under control. In some places, travel was restricted for fear of spreading new
diseases. Despite the availability of protease inhibitors and AZT as AIDS therapies in
rich countries, poor countries could not afford the miracle cures that made HIV go
away-or at least hide for years-so on top of all the other problems, there was a
significant dearth in young leadership in sub-Saharan African countries and all others
where the HIV plague continued-one more impediment to recovery.
The preservation of the environment and biodiversity and the husbanding of natural
resources were of low priority, victims of the need to rebuild with speed. The global
community was much more tolerant toward countries that might have been chastised
for damaging the environment. Women entered politics more often in these countries.
Those who were rich survived best; those who were poor struggled. The gap between
rich and poor grew. Countries that had wealth in tangible forms did better than those
that had wealth in electronic form. The skew in the distribution of wealth increased.
It was the risk-takers and the wealthy people-as well as corporations and nations-
who best survived.
The international financial infrastructure had to be reconstructed piece by piece,
trade by trade, and the world’s business, which had essentially been placed on hold,
began again only grudgingly. Right or wrong, in the mind of the public, global financial
institutions and their trading systems were seen as at least partly responsible for the
economic disaster. Inefficient and easily manipulated, capital markets were also seen
as at least partially to blame and to need significant repair. “What’s a global supranational
for,” people asked, “if not to guard us from such shocks?”
Alternatives to these institutions and their systems were introduced.. A foreign
exchange facility was established to improve competition and provide public access to
foreign exchange data on transactions and to lower transaction costs. Payment systems’
security was emphasized. A new international currency was being discussed. Tax havens
advertised their impregnability. Paper and printed records regained their place in the
sun. In this environment, trading companies and corporations with strong financial arms
did well. Electronic money was discredited.
There was a flight to quality, but quality was hard to find. Barter was important
in the reconstruction phase. Some new products entered international trade: fresh water
was an important export product-sometimes as a barter product-from water-rich
countries to water-poor countries. Unauthorized barter of nuclear materials brought

food and supplies to some countries, and the opportunistic window for nuclear blackmail
grew. It was a matter of survival.
Everyday life continued, of course. Population growth was higher in poorer coun-
tries, and their poverty made the scene ripe for increased government involvement in
family planning in an effort to encourage smaller families.
As we look at the scene today, we see signs of revival. There is true recognition
of global interconnectedness. Growth is sporadic, and when there is conflict between
social and economic goals, economic targets generally prevail. Industrialized countries
have become dependent on the emerging markets and have moved strongly to protect
their relations with them.
Yet there has been a sense of working together. Social psychologists say it takes
a crisis to create the spirit of cooperation and the momentum for cohesive change.
There is a global search for solutions, a feeling that complex systems outstrip our ability
to manage them. In consequence, there is a movement to “decouple” global systems,
to use “circuit breakers” if these systems begin to fail. Rules of trading, standards
of computer and network security, accounting principles, police oversight. settlement
rules-all of these have become the subjects of international standards. Agreements
have been reached around the world to establish global rules designed to prevent this
kind of fiasco in the future. The cry is to “keep the crooks off the Net.” Tampering
with the international flow of currency brings penalties of the severest sort in all coun-
tries-in some, even the death penalty. Some freedoms have evaporated in the process.
The world order is now more authoritarian.
Criminal behavior is harshly dealt with, and the increased harshness is generally
supported. But criminals are sophisticated, and while the world thinks that sufficient
barriers have been erected to prevent a recurrence, new counterattacks are in the works.
The focus is on stealth.
Global goals and initiatives established before the shock-the asteroid watch pro-
gram, the pathogen program, and the lunar base-all have come under increasing
scrutiny and finding the funding to continue is difficult at best. Replacing these programs
are initiatives for sharing the burdens of recovery.
Case 8: A Mean World

Jobs were the problem. In the simplest of terms, population growth had outpaced
the rate of job creation almost everywhere over the past decade. In some places the
difference was small, especially within parts of the newly developing countries that
traded among the three trading blocs-the EU. Latin America, and the Pacific Rim.
In other places, particularly non-bloc countries that constituted ‘the rest of the world.”
jobs-real jobs-were a precious commodity. Population density more than doubled
in parts of sub-Saharan Africa by 2025. and in Asia three of the world’s most populous
non-bloc countries experienced rapid growth-Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. With
populations outpacing solid employment in those regions, pressures on economic systems
inevitably caused widespread collapse. The only advantage was that population density
facilitated more social interactions, communal enclaves, and bartering. Overall, however.
the increasing population wreaked havoc on natural resource bases.
For the advanced industrial nations, the lack of solid employment was actually the
result of a slow-down of growth and bad strategy along the way. For one thing. the
idea that downsizing should have been “rightsizing” came too late. Where unemployment
was high, time hung heavily. For many workers. time virtually stood still.
266 J. C. GLENN AND T. .I. GORDON
As members of the principal trading blocs, the advanced industrial nations were
certainly among the “haves” of the world, but raising living standards was most difficult,
especially for Western Europe, North America, and Japan. Growth in productivity
continued, but it was slow. Productivity increases meant that more could be accomplished
with fewer people, exacerbating the pressures on employment. Many manufacturing
jobs were exported or “contracted out,” and while low-wage service jobs were created,
many people could hardly make a living. High-tech engineering and “customizing” jobs
were created as well, but the knowledge and co.mpetence required for’ these jobs were
very exclusive.
Some economists hoped that nanotechnology would prove to be magic by 202.5,
but development in this field continued to be highly specialized. By 2025, the aging of
the population, national debt pressures on public spending and entitlements, and pres-
sures on natural resources dramatically curbed improvements in living standards. Al-
though well-placed mechanisms were able to prevent a 1930s-like crash from happening,
living standards were only slightly higher than in 1990.
By 2025, the downscaling of expectations led to vast discontent, absolutist passions,
and an incredible distrust of government. The US was hit hardest by these conditions
because it couldn’t establish the idea of work as a virtue and the need to sacrifice for
one’s country and future that Japan exemplified after World War II. Similar conditions
existed in some parts of Europe as well. It was indisputable that by 2025 the advanced
industrial nations were becoming nations of discontent.
Companies, particularly large companies and multinationals, attempted to rightsize,
but with a fiercely competitive global economy, companies continued to undergo an
enormous pressure to control the growth of employment. Reengineering, reinvention,
restructuring, repurposing-every time there was a shift, managers would ask, “Have
we got it right this time?” Many big companies were too inflexible to keep up with the
pace of change and constant shifts in ownership. For the advanced industrial nations,
it was small businesses that controlled small but profitable niches. The virtual corporation
became the key competition to established corporations across advanced societies. In the
eyes of the average worker in large corporations, corporate culture was a chameleon-it
changed so often in size and shape that it was hard to imagine what it would be like
to have a lasting and stable relationship.
To navigate a career in this turmoil required entrepreneurial, high-tech, nonlinear
thinking. In the 1990s there was confidence that the spread of the home business would
provide a magic solution to the lack of jobs, but very quickly this segment became
highly saturated, highly competitive, and-highly specialized. For people who were not
“high-tech, ” “nonlinear,” or “entrepreneurial” enough, there were two alternatives:
taking a low-wage service job or joining the contingency work force. The contingency
work force originally grew out of the increase of temporary service agencies, and its
sheer size had tipped the scales of labor forecasts 20 years earlier. The contingency
work force was huge and transient, composed of individuals traveling from coast to
coast or, in some cases, from country to country, just to find a job. “Drifting” and
“dancing” were the terms-drifting to a job, dancing a dance to turn the job into
something real, then drifting to another job. For these people, divorce was a risk, for
it was difficult to stay married or have a family or a home; homelessness, in fact, spread
like a disease. Benefits packages were wrapped individually on “smart cards” in back
pockets, paid for by the worker if he was lucky enough to land a job by passing the
criminal and medical-record scrutiny that his smart card allowed.
The winners in 2025 were the newly developing economies that functioned within
viable trading blocs. But for the advanced industrial nations and for “the rest of the
world,” it was a mean world indeed because the economic pie had been discovered to
be a zero sum. Like their forebears, the newly industrializing nations increased living
standards dramatically by simply doing what was done before: relying on productivity
gains as their countries industrialized. Nothing succeeds like success, but nothing was
learned either-it had been done before. It became clear by 2025 that the new industrial
world of Asia would benefit from the existing market system far more than the old
industrial world and far more than “the rest of the world.” The trading blocs were
driven by the EU’s push for financial integration, by the economic powerhouses of the
Pacific Rim, by the actions of the US in North America and the extension of the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to Central and South America, and by
the rate at which Latin American countries democratized and created free markets.
These blocs emerged originally as a way to facilitate trade, but they became very rigid
and competitive, viewed by some as responsible for the lack of jobs back home. Within
the trading blocs, in some places, ethnic conflicts raged.
By 2025 trade wars erupted between the blocs. Protectionism came in many forms.
and all the methods were used somewhere: non-tariff barriers, protection of intellectual
properties, restrictive immigration policies, content laws, price regulations. The multilat-
eral free-trade principles that were developed in the 80 years after World War II and
that were represented by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and
WTO came under increasing pressure. Trade diminished. Free trade had never been
extended to most agricultural products or many services, but the agreements that had
been developed for trade in goods had fallen apart. The US and the EU closed their
markets to the newly industrializing “tiger” nations, and trade liberalization came to a
halt. Jobs outside of the newly industrializing countries continued to diminish.
Among the newly industrializing nations, there was a bear: China. The geographic
regions of China that flourished flourished dramatically; elsewhere, conditions were less
startling. Overall, living standards increased rapidly in China, enabling it to survive
huge mistakes in economic management. It rivaled the US for world leadership by
establishing a fairly respectable market economy and human rights record.
Tensions in the financial domain grew far more dangerous after 2025. China and
other countries in East Asia were economic powerhouses, and these countries owned
almost half of the US national debt. In the US, Treasury auctions were always precarious;
the question was “will we be able to sell them more debt?” A huge part of California
was already owned by East Asia, and a very populist US government (already distrusted
by some constituencies) began to think seriously about “nationalizing” certain foreign-
owned assets.
Such were the problems of the “haves” of the world. Most countries agreed that
the “have-not” gap was extreme. But even for those countries at the top, it was a mean
world. People grew tired and dispirited. Crime and corruption increased. Attempts to
convince people that they were better off were greeted with appropriate cynicism.
As for the “have-riots”““the rest of the world outside of the newly industrializing
countries and advanced countries-relative peace and security were rare. This was
especially true among the countries on the continent of Africa and in areas of Asia
that were not a part of the Pacific Rim: India, Pakistan. Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos.
Cambodia, Burma. Where people were very poor, civil unrest and conflict often followed.
Demagoguery abounded. Nationalism increased. Military forces were building. Tensions
were increasing. International institutions lost power.
The UN maintained a semblance of coherence through a strategy of restructuring

after the model of the virtual corporation, creating a network of envoys that would
organize around a crisis and then disband when the crisis was over. This had the
advantage of diminishing the size of UN agencies, increasing the UN’s accountability,
and raising its profile for the media, since the focus shifted to the “crisis” at hand. This
reorganization enabled the UN system to survive, but it was severely weakened by the
multitude of geopolitical “crises.” It was, in fact, impossible to lead a world of rigid
trading blocs and so much political fragmentation, a world in which the “haves” focused
inwardly and where the “have-nets” were confused and fragmented. The UN extended
its programs for improving employment: it used electronic networks and Web pages
on the Internet, brochures, and lobbying of governments, but, for the most part, the
world was involved in the problem of survival, and there was very little time to think
about global vision.
There was very little time to grasp the complexities of the world as well. Economic
and employment changes had occurred so rapidly that nation-states were largely forced
to act before thinking; the US was especially vulnerable because it also had to maintain
a world leadership position. The US was always excellent in technological innovation
and implementing strategy, but conceptual thinking, reflection, and vision were rare.
By 2025, this mean world had turned dangerous. When the stifling but stable
bipolarity of the Cold War gave way to an unbalanced multipolar world, regional
conflicts-some based on ethnicity-had developed, and the world had became progres-
sively less stable. The destabilizing dynamics were very subtle, but at the heart of the
matter was the lack of meaningful work. Jobs were the fundamental problem. Everything
else, some said, came from that. The Western Alliance (which grew to include Russia)
thought at first that regional fighting could be managed with traditional leadership,
global institutions (including UN peace-keeping forces), and new methods of high-tech
negotiating. But the drift toward instability, fueled by underemployment, continued to
spiral downhill, the forces magnifying from their own consequences. Countries outside
of the functioning economic blocs were engulfed in the rise of angry ethnicity, resurgent
nationalism, cultural antagonism, and spreading anti-Western ideologies. Adding to this
instability was the backdrop of rising expectations amid deepening poverty, dwindling
resources such as fresh water and food, and a stagnating world economy.
In this environment, crime and terrorism grew. Modern conventional weaponry
and nuclear weapons flowed from country to country. For the first time in history, the
world gained a capacity to wage war from countless pockets of groups in many different
areas, in many different directions, and on many different levels. “Military” was no
longer defined solely as the military arm of a nation-state. It was instead defined, at
least in part, by terrorist groups, criminals, and small enclaves of people who thought
they knew how to solve the problems, who knew the “right formula” at the “right time.”
Trading and economic blocs merged with mutual defense blocs; the alliances grew teeth.
So did the nonallied.
RAND had been prescient: in a 1995 report, they wrote that if it were ever possible
to imagine a dangerous world, the worst-case scenario would be something like “a world
combining the negative features of nineteenth-century geopolitics, twentieth century
political passions, and twenty-first century technology.” This was very nearly the case
in 2025, except that the world was driven much more by economic passion than political
passion, for it was a matter of survival. Against this background rose the belief in
belief-faith in community, in religion, in the sanctity of the group. If we can’t watch
out for one another, who can? The traditional methods of governance, of management,
of science all came to be viewed with increasing disdain, while alternative countercultures
and lifestyles emerged, often led by women. With information and communications, it
was also easier to retreat into enclaves of like-minded people, no matter where they
were geographically. The cybermedia provided an easy way to search for jobs if one
had access or to escape (a way to use unwanted leisure) for others that had given up,
and for others still it was a way to meet like-minded people. Those cyber meetings of
peers tended to cement attitudes, to segment “us” from “them,” and to solidify the
seditious rumblings and feelings of dread that pervaded this dark, mean world.
Scenario Research
In parallel with the development of the scenarios (Figure 9) other members of
the study team were collecting data about global scenarios constructed previously by
other agencies. This activity resulted in the formation of a bibliography of scenarios,
annotated to provide some guidance as to the content and scope of the scenarios. The
technological capacity portion of this bibliography appears as Appendix B.
3.4 NEWLY IDENTIFIED ISSUES

The scenarios constructed in this phase of the Millennium Project were only de-
signed to be illustrative. Fully developed scenarios, which will be produced in the future,
will include a quantitative backbone using computer software to help assure internal
self-consistency, additional feedback for expert critique and modification, and a detailed
analysis of the global issues and therapeutic strategies that might be employed in eachof
the worlds depicted in the set of scenarios. If the worlds describe the range of possible
futures and some strategies are identified that seem promising in all of them, then these
are surely the important ones to pursue.
Despite the fact that the scenarios constructed in this project were crude and
incomplete, they were searched to identify significant issues that were not captured in
the list of 1.5 that formed the basis for the third questionnaire and the policy interviews.
Some of the most important new issues identified by the study team are listed below:
these may be considered in later work.
?? Will global networks intensify divisive one-issue politics? Will they provide a
new meeting ground for hate groups? What previously had been a molehill issue
in a remote community could suddenly become a mountain issue, attracting
global attention in a world that creates issue-by-chat group. In itself this may
not be worrisome, but it is possible that special-interest groups, possibly hate
groups. could fan the flames of simmering animosities. Thus, the cyberspace
meeting places, apparently neutral politically, by linking like-minded people,
could foster dissent.
?? How can global standards be defined and implemented for computer networks
and encryption? How can the privacy of individuals be protected? How can the
right to free speech be preserved if attempts are made to control content access?
How will the potential of information warfare affect national security issues?
?? Can cities survive? While population, disease, and living standards were all
addressed in the list of 15 issues, the rapid growth of the urban population and
the deterioration of city infrastructure, which will only be intensified by this
growth, may deserve additional attention.
?? Are global safety nets possible? Several of the scenarios depicted worlds in which
a country’s capacity to provide minimal chronic and emergency support to its
Fig. 9. The scenario process.
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT \ 271
poorest is lost. Are global programs an alternative? Ought there to be global

standards?
?? The migration of massive numbers of people, primarily to avoid conflict, is a
fact of life in poor regions of the world. While international organizations exist
to help anticipate and deal with the problems of migration, the scenarios suggest
that this issue may intensify.
3.5 A NORMATIVE SCENARIO EXAMPLE

At the midterm project review, the study’s planning committee observed that the
scenarios under consideration might be seen as having a distinctly downbeat flavor and
recommended that normative scenarios be considered in addition to those already in
design. An example of a previously published normative scenario was sent to the study
team by one member of the planning committee.’ This serves as an example of the
scope and flexibility that can be accommodated in such a scenario, its role in evoking
imaginative images of the future, and the difficulties involved in establishing a framework
for producing and evaluating such work.
Here are some of the features of “Looking Back from the 21st Century.” a scenario
by Hazel Henderson that reflects a normative view.
The scenario is written from the perspective of 2010 in a setting that is describing
to the European Parliament the evolution of the socioeconomic world of the past three
or four decades. It is a communications-led world (called a “mediocracy.” with a values-
driven “attention economy”) that has changed in many ways:
“An increasingly skeptical and educated public takes part in “new revolutions
against consumption.”
Restructuring and democratizing of the UN include “teleconference uplinks with
parliamentarians,” abolishing the veto, and adding new members to the Security
Council. In addition a Charter for Human Responsibilities is adopted to comple-
ment the UN’s Human Rights Charter. The UN realize[s] its true role in the
21st century Information Age as the world’s preeminent convener, broker. norm
and standard setter, and networker.“
A UN World Criminal Court is conducted on TV and leads to a reduction of
human rights violations and “a climate of sanctions for criminal behavior.”
Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America become the “world’s economic power-
houses” and South Africa leads “a new era of human development on the Afri-
can continent.”
Chapter 9 bankruptcies are available for “all those countries with heavy debt-
export ratios who request this status.” The World Bank, as private banks before
it, writes off uncollectable country loans.
The development banks begin “packaging and securitizing the small loan portfo-
lios of such micro lenders as Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank.”
The population stabilizes at 8 billion “after the fundamentalist religions of the
world” give women control over reproduction.
Voluntarism (the third sector, a civil society of citizens’ groups, and unpaid
workers linked on the Internet) rises and drives many local and global changes.
A UN Security Insurance Agency (UNSIA) is formed to offer “insurance in the
form of a contractual UN peace-keeping force.” The idea is that small countries
‘Hazel Henderson, “Looking Back from the 21st Century.” presented to Taking Nrrtuw info AKOWI~
fnternutional Conference. the European Parliament, Brussels, Belgium, May 31. 1995.
can buy policies that finance a “well-trained UN multilateral conflict-resolution,

preventative-diplomacy, and peace-keeping force” providing more credible de-
terrence and security for less money.”
?? “Incorporation of social and environmental risk factors in financial markets and
their capital asset pricing models (CAPMs)” leads to environmentally efficient
investments. Corporations are rechartered to include “‘stakeholder’ accounting
and management of companies for all stakeholders: investors, employees, custom-
ers, the community, and the environment.”
?? There is development of “new rules governing the ‘world’s financial casino”’
(foreign currency trading). Global capital markets and their rising instabilities,
c driven by speculation leading to worldwide depression, cause the change:
In the 1990s the world poverty gap grew wider as these heavily indebted countries fell further
behind. Others that competed in the world’s unregulated capital markets for private investment
won out at a heavy price. They competed with each other for the world’s private capital by placing
on the auction block of this deregulated global casino their workers, their national assets, and their
natural resources, offering them to the highest bidder in a kind of ‘lose-lose’ global economic
warfare. The orgy of foreign direct investment (much of it long-term) had reached billions by 1994.
Short-term portfolio investment also mushroomed and currency speculation grew in time frames
reduced by technology to nanoseconds.
?? To tame the rampant global casino, a “‘win-win world financial system’6 is

created with values, incentives, and rules that bring order for investors and fosters
sustainable human development.”
?? National accounts are modified to include environmental and social costs, a global
Security and Exchange Commission is created “with small currency exchange
fees to reduce speculation” and a “global reserve currency” is created in parallel
with “complementary local currencies.”
?? Sustainability is based on “earth-based ethical systems,” full-cost pricing systems
are adopted, and a world boom ensues.
The ideas in this normative scenario are provocative, and many have already found
their way into the study through suggestions made by the look-out panel. But the
methodological questions raised are significant and will be pursued in later work:
How can internal self-consistency be tested in normative scenarios? Is it even

necessary to assert consistency?
Is there a systematic framework for testing the completeness of a normative
scenario?
Should normative scenarios be constructed in sets, as exploratory scenarios are?
Since normative scenarios are often personal visions, what role should peer
review play?
What criteria separate a good normative scenario from a bad one? Are such
evaluations possible or useful?
How do normative scenarios differ from and rise above science fiction?
4. Scanning Databases to Identify Emerging Global Issues

4.1. INTRODUCTION
The Millennium Project uses three primary sources of information to identify and
explore future issues and opportunities:
‘See also Hazel Henderson, “Win-Win Strategies for Managing Risk in Today’s Global Financial Mar-
kets,” Worldpaper, Boston, 1995.
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 27.7
?? the global look-out panel, charged with identifying contemporary developments

that promised large-scale consequences;
?? global scenarios that presented internally consistent images of future possibilities
and recognized large-scale issues from the mesh of the forces they described;
?? scanning of published reports, an activity that implied a review of both formal
and informal material.
In this year’s activity, priority was placed on the panel, scenarios were explored at a
lower priority, and scanning was at least initiated to begin the evaluation of the potential
and means for effectively implementing this approach. The results of our early scanning
work are presented here.
During the Millennium Project’s feasibility study, other methods of environmental
scanning were addressed.’ As a result, this report focuses on publications on the Internet.
using the World Wide Web (WWW) as the database and commercially available search
engines. We asked, in effect, could scanning of the lnternet with currently available
tools contribute to the objectives of the Millennium Project?
4.2. THE WORLD WIDE WEB

By now, anyone interested in computers and communications has heard of and
probably used the Internet and the WWW. Beginning from a system that connected
computers between universities and defense contractors (ARPA Net), the Internet has
emerged as a phenomenon of our times, available for research or “surfing,” digital
conversation, serious inquiry, or trivial pursuits. Initially, the Internet provided informa-
tion only in the form of text. The WWW introduced user-friendly color graphics that
have greatly contributed to its popularity and growing use. Although most on-line users
are in the US, the WWW is accessible almost everywhere in the world and use by
people outside of the US is growing. Web pages are predominately written in English,
but this too is changing, and the WWW is becoming increasingly multilingual. Many
of the major search engines on the WWW offer search options in multiple languages.
The amount of information available on the WWW is seemingly endless and con-
stantly changing. Identifying specific articles of interest from this wealth of information
is not always simple. The problem is that seemingly reasonable search strategies can
produce volumes of “noise,” burying the few articles and reports that are on target.
Another problem is the continual underforcasted demand and extensive “free” use.
requiring huge new capacity and costs now being installed by corporations and goven-
ments. Access costs may begin to rise along with advertising.
4.3. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON MAJOR SEARCH ENGINES

There are a dozen or more search engines available to the average user. Each
focuses on a different set of databases and matches the key words provided by users
in different ways. Without attention to the search strategy, the returns from a simple
search can be overwhelming; one search on global issues. for example, found over 3
million matches. Clearly no one would even begin to manually sort through a stack
that high to find the few nuggets that it might contain.
Below is a list of the most common and useful search engines and their respec-
tive URLs.
TSee “Environmental Scanning,” Frontiers of Furctrr~ Studces: A Handbook for Tool.s md Methods,
UNDP African Futures, 1997, or (http://nko.mhpcc.edu/millennium/metkods.html).
AltaVista: http://altavista.digital.com
CUI: http://cuiwww.unige.ch/meta-index.html
CyberHound: http://www.cyberhound.com
Excite: http://www.excite.com
EZ Connect: http://www.ezconnect.com
Infoseek: http://www2.infoseek.com
Lycos: http://www.lycos.com
Medexplorer: http://www.medexplorer.com
Medsearch: http://www.medsearch.com
Open Text: http://www.opentext.com/omw/f-omw.html
Ultraseek: http://www.ultraseek.com
Webcrawler: http://www.webcrawler.com
Yahoo: http://www.yahoo.com
The following URLs will lead to library reference sites that offer helpful comparisons
of individual search engines:
http://www.indiana.edu/Nlibrcsd/search
http://www.cnet.com/Content/Reviews/Compare/Search/ss3a.html
http://www.state.ia.us/educate/depteduc/echlsearch.html
Recently, several “meta-search engines” have become available. Meta-search en-

gines are able to search multiple individual search-engine databases with the launch of
a single “meta’‘-search. Meta-search engines are becoming more and more popular as
they can save users from jumping between multiple search engines. The following is a
list of four meta-search engines currently available on the World Wide Web:
IBM InfoMarket: http://www.infomkt.ibm.com/

MetaCrawler: http://MetaCrawler.cs.washington.edu:808O/index.html
Profusion: http://www.designlab.ukans.edu/ProFusion.html
SavvySearch: http://cage.cs.colostate.edu:1969/
Yet a third level of search engines has recently been added to the search galaxy:
Personal Net agent software. Net or Web agents are a class of software that essentially
creates meta-search sites that run on the user’s personal computer and are far more
customizable than even the best of on-line search or meta-search engines. After running
a search, agent software will typically either create a detailed summary of all of the
pages found or download the actual pages with all on-line images and Java scripts for
review. Agent software can be programmed to automatically update searches at weekly
or daily intervals. All of this can be performed in unattended mode-late at night, for
example-to maximize the user’s time and resources. Two contemporary examples of
agent software are NetAttache and WebCompass. Excellent reviews of these and other
agent-based programs can be found at (http://www.stroud.com/sagents.html). Also in
this class, though more specialized and limited in scope, are news agents. These deliver
specific newsfeeds on a regular basis to your computer based on detailed selection
algorithms that “hit” search engines and wire services. While they will not search the
Web per se, they do provide highly customized current events in hundreds of selectable
fields and industries. An example is PointCast, found at (http://www.pointcast.com).
4.4. PRELIMINARY TEST OF THE INTERNET FOR THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT

There are primarily two reasons for scanning databases in the Millennium Project.
The first is to identify newly emerging global issues and opportunities, and the second
is to uncover more information about issues already identified by other means. To
explore the usefulness of the Internet in addressing both types of questions, certain
key words were chosen, and the WWW was searched using the meta-search engine
MetaCrawler (MetaCrawler searches using several engines, including Lycos, Web-
Crawler, AltaVista, Yahoo, and Galaxy) and the search engine Infoseek.
The searches were conducted using key words such as “emerging global issues”
and “aging nuclear power plants.” Here are the results.
Using “emerging global issues” (with a plus sign in front of the words to require
their presence), MetaCrawler found a total number of 38 matches. These matches
included material that was far off the mark and some good hits. For example, for reasons
that are not understood. the references that were off the track pointed us to the home
pages of the accounting firm of Coopers and Lybrand, the Cornell Law Library, and
the same-sex sodomy law in Arkansas. But the hits were encouraging and included
the following:
Medium-Term Target of ODA (Outline)

Aim. The stability and sustained growth of developing countries are essential to
the creation of a post-Cold War framework for peace (http:/lwww.nttls.co.jp/infomofal
oda/suml995/fifth.html).
The Emerging Global Village

The Emerging Global Village: Issues and Problems. The Emerging Global Village
Web site will use multimedia to explore the impact of globalization on the world
community (http:/lwww-plateau.cs.berkeley.edu/globalvillage/issues.html).
Watson Institute Publications List

The Watson Institute publishes a book series on emerging global issues, an occasional
paper series, briefings, etc. (http://www.brown.edu/DepartmentslWatson_Institutei
Publications/WIIS_PUB_comp.shtml).
Emerging Global Issues

Watson Institute emerging global issues book series: Third World Security in the
Post-Cold War Era (http://www.brown.edu/Departmentsn?latson_Institute/Publications/
egishtm).
Full House
Reassessing the Earth’s Population Carrying Capacity by Lester R. Brown and Hall
Kane (http:/lcsf.colorado.edu/authors/hanson/page28.htm).
World Issues Forum

World Issues Forum. AFSA Brings the World to You (http:/lwww.afsa.org/
educ/wdissue.html).
We note parenthetically that the Millennium Home Page was not found in this
search.
Changing the search strategy on MetaCrawler to “new + world + issues” produced
20 responses, again with the variety seen earlier. Some. but not many, items were
duplicated between the two lists. Some of the interesting additional hits included the fol-
lowing.
Contemporary Forms of Genocide

Mirghani Mohamed and Mona Mohamed, The National Islamic Front (NIF) Geno-
cidal Policy in Sudan. Perspective. Israel Chamy, A Classification of Denials of Holocaust
and Genocide: From Culpability to Corruption to “Innocence” in,celebration of Violence
(http://www.unI.educonted/acpp/genocide/index.html).
And at least one enigmatic item appeared that might be followed up:
New Issues of the World-November 1996

Every month Cronaca Filatelica reproduces, in its central black pages, new issues
from all over the world in color with descriptions in Italian (http://www.intecs.it/eder/
crofil/nere/uknov96.htm).
Using “emerging + global + issues” with Infoseek produced a total of 18 references.
Most of these dealt with global investing; however, one hit was of possible interest:
Global Issues
The global issue theme focuses discussion on a broad range of environmental,
social, political, and economic issues (http://www.iearn.org/lcguide/gi/gi.html).
Using the key words “new + world + issues” on Infoseek produced bizarre results.
Somehow the program associated the word “cigars” with this search request. It obtained
five hits, none of which were useful. However, an earlier search from Paris using the
same terms produced 36 matches, of which three were judged particularly relevant.
Emerging Infectious Diseases

Tracking trends and analyzing new and reemerging issues around the world (http://
www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/eid.htm).
Connected
News and views from the connected society http:l/www.access.ch/e-news/.
Foreign Policy Association

(http://www.fpa.org/)
When the key words “aging + nuclear + plants” were used with MetaCrawler, a
total of 49 matches were produced, most of which were on target. The references
included pointers to material degradation, specific power plants that had been shut
down because of malfunction or age, the nature of the risk involved in aging power
plants, radiation effect, documents from the Nuclear Regulatory Agency pertaining
to the subject, articles on decommissioning procedures and experiences, operational
difficulties with a specific Russian plant, nuclear safety research, etc. This search even
found a reference to the Millennium Project’s Issue 13, “Aging Nuclear Plants,” identi-
fied in the project’s third round and posted on its home page. The specific search engine
used by MetaCrawler to find this reference was Excite.
With Infoseek, 22 matches were found, and most were useful. There was no overlap
with the articles retrieved from the MetaCrawler search. Infoseek was used a second
time with a slightly different designation. This search was performed using quotation
marks, thus establishing the key words as a phrase: “aging nuclear power plants.” Now
a total of 28 matches were retrieved. The results were generally good, but the misses
were more abundant than in the MetaCrawler search.
4.5 ANALYSIS
It is apparent that the capability to search enormous databases on the Internet will
be invaluable to the Millennium Project. This preliminary work barely scratched the
surface, but a scratch was made deep enough to show the potential.
Clearly, the searches were more efficient and productive in providing information
on the focused topic of aging nuclear power plants than in searching for newly emerging
global issues. The problem of discovering some issue that is truly new seems to stem
from the following conundrum: if the subject has been written about and can be found
on the Internet, it may no longer be new.
Perhaps other search terms would be more rewarding in uncovering issues ot
future importance. Replacing “new” with “unexpected” in the search using MetaCrawlet
produced some promising results. In addition to the usual “noise,” this search produced
articles on global warming, evidence-based medicine, massively distributed systems,
trends in nanotechnology, and unexpected threats to US interests.
There are yet no clear criteria by which to select the best search engine or search
strategy, except some general rules of thumb. In our limited work, the meta-search
engine outperformed the single search engine in terms of its reach and accuracy. Meta-
search engines offer an efficient alternative to searching multiple individual search
engines. However, meta-search engines do not incorporate all individual search engines.
For example, MetaCrawler did not query Infoseek in its searches. As a result, individual
searches on Infoseek revealed matches that MetaCrawler had not found.
Without employing some engine-specific search-focusing techniques, the number
of items retrieved generally was so large that the searches became essentially meaning-
less. The researcher should become familiar with the peculiarities of each individual
searching tool. Finally, a refined search is much more time- and information-efficient
than one unrefined search that produces hundreds of irrelevant matches.
At this point, the best search strategy appears to be one of “refined” trial and
error. The searches themselves sometimes reveal the next search terms to use and the
ones to avoid. For example, using the term “futures” for the purpose of finding articles
on “futures research” also elicits the futures commodity market: so the next logical
search would be to input “futures NOT commodities.” The term “aging nuclear plants”
gave additional retrievals associated with how biologically growing plants aged under
nuclear environments; the next search could be worded to exclude such items.
The best place to start with a search on the WWW is with a precise subject. If the
subject matter initially turns out to be too specific and leads to no matches, gradually
broaden the scope of the subject. Beginning with a very focused search and then widening
the parameters of the search will prove much more effective than the inverse approach.
4.6. FUTURE RESEARCH

Ideally, a future search system would operate autonomously and ring an alarm
every time it recognized that a new topic of interest had appeared in the database. This
recognition would be based on the novelty of the item, the plausibility of its emergence,
and its potential importance. (In prior Millennium Project work, “importance” was
defined on the basis of the number of people likely to be affected, the severity and
permanence of the effects, and imminence.) Such an automatic system is not nearly at
hand, but discussions have taken place between the project and personnel at the Maui
High Performance Computer Center about how such a system might be constructed.
The plan is to set up a number of search strategies and review in detail the nature of
the material retrieved. The value of each strategy would be judged by reviewers on the
basis of how close it came to finding new global issues and opportunities. Those that
did best would be combined (mated) in pairs or appropriate permutations and a set of
instructions would be added: find other articles similar to those that rated highly.
Similarity would be specified on the basis of many different factors: author, publishing
organization, length, publication date, etc. Then retrieved material would again be
judged and the winning pairs mated. By the fifth generation, the search criteria would
presumably not be recognizable, but the agents would be bringing back precise material
of great interest.
In such an approach, of course, other reviewers would have trained their agents
to recognize material that was satisfying to themselves; hence, there is not likely to be
an absolute convergence among different search institutions.
Whether such an enterprise can be pursued depends on funding and the availability
of interested and capable researchers.
5. Additional Methodological Issues

The Millennium Project explores both content and methods in futures research.
Since the project’s major work on methodology, Frontiers in Futures Studies: A Hand-
book of Tools and Methods (http://nko.mhpcc.edu/millennium/methods.html), produced
for the UNDP, is expected to be published shortly, this report does not repeat that
work. As described in Section 1, the primary methodologies used by the project are
look-out studies, scenarios, and scanning-each receiving one section in this report.
The current section addresses some methodological issues that are not included in
Frontiers in Futures Studies or elsewhere in thisreport.
5.1 IMPROVED DECISION-MAKING: A NEW FRONTIER

Background
While quantitative methods have been devised to assess the relative costs and
benefits of alternative policies (e.g., cost/benefit, utility theory, risk analysis, net energy,
etc.), all of these methods depend on assumptions about the future, and the future will
always be imperfectly and incompletely known. Therefore, decision-making will always
involve risk and uncertainty. Any means that accepts the limitations of futures research
while reducing risk and uncertainty will certainly improve the ability to obtain desired
policy outcomes and therefore deserves the most serious attention.
It may never be possible to know the extent of uncertainty when dealing with
issues about the future. There are at !east six causes of uncertainty that limit the ability
to understand the range of possibledecisions and their potential outcomes:
?? Nonlinearity and feedback in complex systems can lead to apparently unpredict-

able behavior and chaos. The source of this uncertainty is buried within the
systems themselves.
?? There is a limit to the accuracy with which one can know or collect facts about
the present or about history. This category includes measurement error, the
inevitable distortion of experimental data that is caused by the experimenter’s
presence and biases, and noise or spurious signals.
?? Furthermore, one may never be able to identify and collect all of the relevant
data needed to solve a problem; these data may include, for example, not only
physical characteristics, but the mental state of participants, stored but hidden
stresses, and unsuspected causal agents.
?? Distortions of truth occur as a result of deliberate falsification or inadvertence.

How do we know what is really happening? It is impossible for each person to
verify those assumptions on which actions are based.
?? Systemic changes cause uncertainty because the implicit assumption is often
made that the relationships that were at work in the past, that were verified by
observation, experiment, or test, will hold in the future. Yet relationships can
change. and when the system changes, any foundation that history may have
provided evaporates.
?? Unexpected developments confound predictability. It is not that some of these
developments are just unknown, it is that many of the most important of these
surprises are unknowable. All credible forecasts have seeds in the present: labora-
tory work underway, funded research and development, an idea for an invention,
media reports, even science fiction. But what of all of those developments that
will characterize the future that have not yet planted seeds? Who could have
forecast nuclear terrorist bombs before fission was demonstrated?
?? Finally, there is a lack of understanding about how the world really works. Even
though physics and social science have developed remarkably compared to their
states of a few hundred years ago, there is as yet no fundamental understanding
about causality on a macroscopic level. Understanding the dynamics of change
at any level is an unsolved problem.
Decision Models Can Fail If Systems Are Complex

The availability of large and fast personal computers gave numerical methods of
futures research and policy analysis great impetus. Models were often used to test
proposed decisions. The usual approach was to build a model that duplicated history
and to run it into the future to make a forecast. In effect, the model was assumed to
project the situation if no decision at all were made. In subsequent runs, a decision was
simulated. The two runs-one with the decision and one without-determined whether
or not the decision was beneficial.
Some models forecast well some of the time and others never forecast well; but it
is very difficult to tell, a priori, which models are going to work and which are not.
Why? Macroeconomic models used by governments to “manage” economies have a
low predictability that is based on assumptions of “general equlibrium.” When the
model closely resembles the system because both are linear or change is slow-for
example, in population forecasting or in estimating the trajectory of a spacecraft on a
course from the earth to the moon-models are accurate. But when change is rapid.
when inertia is low, when surprises are possible, when the time horizon is distant. the
models will fail regardless of the number of equations, the mass of data, or the size
and speed of the computer. Accuracy may not improve with increasing computing power
or collecting more precise data.
In a linear world, forecasting would be precise only if there were enough sufficiently
accurate data and a computer big enough to organize and manipulate it. In such a case,
historical relationships among the factors driving change could be deduced. A central
theory could be formed, inferred from the data if nothing else. creating the body
of information and models of the gear-cogs of change, from which forecasts could
be produced.
When systems are nonlinear, however, the situation changes, and models ma)
produce misleading forecasts. The level of complexity is a system attribute: at the simple
end of the scale are linear Newtonian systems, that is. systems in which output is
proportional to input. At the other end of the complexity scale is randomness: the snow
on the face of a TV tube when the transmitting station is off the air. Random systems
are, like an honest roulette wheel, unpredictable.
Most systems lie between the linear and the random extremes. Before the advent
of large computers, a nonlinear model of even a simple system like a teeter-totter took
a lot of time to solve, so it was much more efficient to make simplifying assumptions.
When computing power grew, it became much more feasible to include the more
complex nonlinear aspects of the system under study. Where the models produce orderly
results when linear assumptions are made, when nonlinear factors are included, these
models can produce unpredictable and random-appearing forecasts: chaotic behavior.
With cheap computing power, a new form of experimentation is possible. Rather
than seeking a general law explaining the behavior of a physical or social system,
computer simulations can be run millions of times. What emerges is a map of the motion
of the system that indicates its complexities and the conditions under which its motion
becomes chaotic and unpredictable. This numerical approach is a sharp break from the
standard way of science and has now been applied to systems as diverse as the formation
of thunderstorms, the turbulent flow of fluids, the mixing of chemicals, the evolution
of species, the stability of ecosystems, the behavior of markets, the flocking of birds,
neural networks, earthquakes, plant development, and conflict. Computers combined
with random surveys can also locate consensus. This ability to simulate the behavior
of real systems by performing multiple runs includes both chaotic and nonchaotic
behavior-it is a new capability made possible by cheap and available computing power.
Systems in chaos are very sensitive to initial conditions; even minuscule changes
can have dramatic effects later, the so-called “butterfly effect.” For a system in chaos,
the present cannot be reconstructed from history and history cannot be reconstructed
from the present. The whole may be different than the sum of all the parts: little panels
on an aircraft wing may vibrate separately, but understanding their individual motion
does not necessarily mean that they add up to the motion of the wing as a whole.
Chaotic systems may repeat their form at all levels of detail; look at a chaotic system
under a microscope or through a telescope, up close or at a distance, and it seems to
have the same roughness. For example, a graph of stock prices tends to look pretty
much the same whether the graph shows yearly, monthly, daily, hourly, and (probably)
minute-by-minute prices. (But the stock market is a complex system and its “attractors”
are of high dimension and its simulation remains a dream; claims to have found a chaos
model that duplicates market performance are probably exaggerated.)
Intuition
If models are wrong, how then can good decisions be made? Some people make
good decisions intuitively;8 they somehow feel, they somehow know, what is right to
do. From an evolutionary point of view, one could certainly argue that ancient ancestors
who made good decisions had a better chance at survival than those that made bad
decisions. Decision time in the Paleolithic era: “Can I make it across the field to the
cave before that saber-tooth tiger catches me ?” Perhaps there still exists, somewhere
in our make-up, the legacy of the fastest runners and best decision-makers.
Good physicians do it. While most all diagnosticians can recognize obvious symp-
toms, the experts among them also take into account clues that would escape the less
‘For a detailed discussion of intuition in futures research see “Genius Forecasting, Intuition, and Vision,”
Frontiers of Futures Studies: A Handbook on Tools and Methods, UNDP, 1997. and at (http://nko.org/
millennium/methods.html).
skilled or less observant physician. Their rules of thumb might include slight slowness
to answer a question, unusual odors, lack of luster in the eye, a sense of nervousness,
personal knowledge of the patient. Training helps, but there may be an innate talent
for making good decisions.
What do these intuitive decision makers have? Experience? Certainly. This seems
to be a prerequisite. But experience alone doesn’t account for their successes. Maybe
it’s the ability to learn from experience. Maybe it’s the ability to pick out small indicators
from a hood of information and to subconsciously build images of the future that give
them courage to proceed. Genius for making a good decision-particularly when there
are little data, when the signals are weak and the risks are high-is similar to the gift
of musical proficiency. Skilled politicians can override conclusions drawn from faulty
models by using good “judgment.”
But luck and chance undoubtedly play some role in what we see as intuition.
Neuroscience
That genius for decision-making, if it exists at all, resides in the brain. Research
in neuroscience is advancing rapidly, but fundamental questions have not been answered,
such as how the brain functions, how memory is stored and retrieved, how images are
created, how imagination functions, what the meaning of self-consciousness is, how
decisions are made from these raw materials. The complexity of the brain is evident in
the diversity of the types of cells it contains, in the intricacy of their interconnections.
and in the number of neurotransmitters used to modulate the flow of information from
one cell to another. The brain makes us what we are, but we know less about it-the
center of our intellect-than we do about the center of the earth.
Scientists are learning about the brain from the bottom up, so to speak, component
by component: from the range of neurotransmitters-the biochemicals that modulate
the current flow of neural synapses-to the regions of the brain that “light up” in
positron emission tomography (PET) scans of people and laboratory animals performing
certain tasks, to the neural pathways created and abandoned in the course of develop-
ment. Some people argue that the component approach may not yield a total theory
of the brain. By analogy, would an analysis of the components of a computer-resistors.
transistors, microprocessors-lead to an understanding of how the computer works?
How does the brain make decisions’? Lesions at the base of the prefrontal lobe
apparently interfere with the decision process. After an operation that removes tissue
in this area, for example, IQ can remain high, but simple decision-making can become
greatly impaired. For example, Calvin and Ojemann, in Conversations with Neil’s Rrain:
The Neural Nature of Thought and Language, write of a patient:
He was often unable to make simple, rapid decisions about what toothpaste to buy or what to wear. Ht
would instead become stuck making endless comparisons and contrasts, often making no decision at all
or a purely random one. Relatively simple decisions could take hours. Going out for dinner required
that he consider the seating plan, menu, atmosphere, and management of each possible restaurant. He’d
even drive by them to see how busy they were. yet continue to bc indecisive. unable to come to a
decision about where to eat dinner.
If a decision science emerges in the future, a significant portion of the new field will
come from neuroscience.
Irrationality
Suppose that a die has an equal number of red and black faces. A sequence of
rolls gives six reds in a row. The rational statistician will tell you that on the next roll,
there is an equal chance that red or black will turn up. Most people, however. when
presented with six reds in a row will guess the next will be black “to even things out.”
For reasons that have not yet been discovered, the mind thinks in patterns that do not
meet the statistician’s view of rationality.
Based on the work of Kahneman and Tversky and on that of other psychologists
who deal with decision distortions, here are some other propensities of human thinking:
?? Loss is a terrible thing. People sacrifice a lot in order to avoid a loss.

?? Beliefs are formed by first impressions. Beginnings color relationships.
?? We emulate “stars,” even though their lives may have been despicable.
?? Things given attention in the press and other media seem more likely.
?? Undue weight is given to data-any data, right or wrong.
?? We are reluctant to change opinions if we have stated them publicly.
?? In groups, we attribute accuracy to consensus.
?? We assign value where none exists.
?? We find ways to avoid admitting that our acts are less than ideal.
?? We invent and then believe explanations we invent for our poor performance.
?? We ignore or do not believe information that contradicts our beliefs.
?? We are overconfident.
?? We depreciate mentally to avoid admitting a loss. Say you bought a vase for $25
and it turned out to be an antique worth $1000. One day, you bump it and it
smashes on the floor. “Oh well,” you say, “it only cost $25.”
The list is longer, but this much gives you the idea: human reasoning is often distorted.
The Moral Side

Decisions have a moral quality as well that has engaged philosophers over the
centuries. Their advice is often in conflict:
?? Do that which produces the greatest good for the greatest number.
?? Do that which improves the race.
?? Do that which you would have done to you.
?? Do that which you would like to see applied as a rule generally.
?? Do that which has practical benefit for yourself.
Dr. Rushworth Kidder of the Institute for Global Ethics says that these kinds of decisions
are tough because there’s often no right or wrong; most of the time it’s right versus
right. There are four kinds of dilemmas, he says:9
Truth versus loyalty dilemmas, in which one’s allegiance to a person or idea is

challenged by one’s understanding of what honesty or integrity demands.
Justice versus mercy dilemmas, in which the stern demands of law and the clear
need for compassion both deserve consideration.
Short-term versus long-term dilemmas, in which what’s good for now is at odds
with what’s good for the future.
Individual versus community dilemmas, in which needs of the self (or small
group) and the needs of the community (or large group) are both right and
mutually exclusive.
are some other problems, as well:
PRushworth Kidder, How Good People Make Tough Choices. William Morrow, 1995.
?? The moral imperatives that are supposed to guide us are not decisive.
?? The values we hold may be in conflict.
?? Values are very hard to measure; who has a metric for honesty or freedom?
?? Not all people mean the same thing when they express a value.
?? There is a mismatch between behavior and what people say they value.
?? Values change with the setting. We might say that values should be absolute-
what’s right in one place is right everywhere-but behavior belies this ideal.
With these apparent problems, how can decisions be morally assessed?
Dealing with Uncertainty

Operations research has some basic rules of decisions: minimize regret-that is, if
you missed the chance to do it, how badly would you regret it, win or lose, later on?
Another is mini-max, which calls for minimizing the chances for a maximum loss.
Common sense says to make the payoff commensurate with the downside risk. But
there are other techniques as well. Modularity allows the piecemeal assembly of ap-
proaches that preserve options as the future unfolds. Hedging is a strategy that protects
against uncertainty: it doesn’t matter if the market goes up or down: properly hedged
investors can win-or at least not lose much. However, individual hedging in financial
markets may increase risks of systemic breakdowns. Scenarios are a form of hedging-in
this case, defining a set of future worlds and finding strategies that work in all of them.
These strategies are the good bets of today. Portfolios are a means of guarding against
uncertainty: put packages together that will have some winners and losers, some with
high risk and commensurate high return and some with lower return but greater certainty.
Important note: decision-makers can be trained to recognize and deal with uncer-
tainty, to recognize their own propensity toward overconfidence, for example, or to
make explicit their tolerance for risk.
Cognitive Science
Cognitive science exists at the confluence of computers and neural networks; brain
physiology, neurology, and mental functioning; economics-particularly the economics
of optimization; cognition, intelligence, memory, and learning; and, importantly, self-
consciousness. In short, it is a search for a better understanding of the relationship of
brain and mind and the capability of computers and neural networks to explain either
mind or brain or to reproduce their functioning. It asks how people learn, recall, and
make decisions and, to some degree, how people ought to make decisions. Some of the
people in this field have raised images of a social collective intelligence, of a global
mind, drawing an analogy between minds interacting in a social context and neurons
interacting in a single mind. This raises the possibility of a social intelligence, which is
certainly worth searching for.
Decisionists
From all of these perspectives, there is an attack mounting on the problem of
making good decisions. Neurological scientists are beginning to understand how memory
is stored and retrieved and where in the brain decisions are made. Social scientists are
asking once again about the moral basis for decision-making and are designing new
tools to evaluate values. Psychologists are experimenting with questions that test the
mind’s ability to grasp rationality, and statisticians and economists are extending con-
cepts of utility and what ought to comprise a good decision. Gerontologists and lawyers
wonder how to tell whether a person is competent to make a complex decision; they
wonder how to measure the complexity of a decision. With the Internet, access to
expertise and information is global and collaboration is no longer totally bounded by

geography. Cognitive scientists grapple with concepts of optimality in artificial networks
and natural systems and with the limits to the brain/network analogy.
These and other activities suggest that a new enterprise is underway that will lead
to more conscious, systematic, and insightful consideration of the promise and pitfalls
of decisions. If this field fully emerges, it may give decision-makers of the next century
the courage to make great decisions.
5.3. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS

A new sort of model has emerged in recent years that provides a new means for
exploring social interactions in changing environments and for testing the consequences
of anticipated policies. The field is generally known as complex adaptive systems or
adaptive agent modeling. It includes nonlinear interactions and feedback. This work
stems directly from the “artificial life” of “cellular automata” computer experiments of
the late 1960s and owes its heritage to John von Neumann’s early thinking about self-
replicating automata. lo However, it may well be that the concept of complex adaptive
systems has rapidly become overused.
In essence, this modeling technique, from its first beginnings in the game Life to
its current implementation in the Brookings Institute’s Sugarscape, involves providing
simple instructions to software “agents” or “avatars,” the smallest units of individual
behavior in the program. The computer programs run, one interval at a time, during
which the agents interact and behave according to their instructions. The aggregate
results are often unexpectedly complex and are displayed in the form of time series
or as changing parameters placed on the computer monitor screen where the agents
themselves are located.
A few examples of this approach will make the concept clear.
In the late 1960s John Conway at Cambridge invented the game, Life. The agents
in his model were given rules that dictated birth, survival, and death.
Life occurs on a virtual checkerboard. The squares are called cells. They are in one of two states: alive
or dead. Each cell has eight possible neighbors: the cells which touch its sides or its corners.
If a cell on the checkerboard is alive, it will survive in the next time step (or generation) if there are
either two or three neighbors also alive. It will die of overcrowding if there are more than three live
neighbors, and it will die of exposure if there are fewer than two.
If a cell on the checkerboard is dead, it will remain dead in the next generation unless exactly three
of its eight neighbors are alive. In that case, the cell will be ‘born’ in the next generation.”
With these rules, the cellular performers on the screen reproduced and spread in patterns
on unexpected complexity. The game variations were myriad and involved the addition
of gender, genetic characteristics, competition, mutations, and other features that added
complexity and suggested that a new medium for social and perhaps genetic experimenta-
tion was being created.
In 1987 Craig Reynolds, then an animator at Symbolics Corporation, developed a
program that simulated the flocking behavior of birds. The instructions were that each
simulated bird had to match the velocity of nearby simulated birds, that birds could
not move too close together, and that an attractive force kept the flock clumped. With
these simple instructions, the birds on the screen moved in patterns that resembled real
“‘An excellent history of the early development of CA models can be found in Steven Levy, Artificial
Life: The Quest for a New Creation. Pantheon Books, New York, 1992.
” Elwyn Belcamp, John Conway, and Richard Guy, Winning Ways for Your Mathematical Plays. Academic
Press, London, 1982.
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 28.5
life. Of course, real birds do not rehearse such rules and may respond to forces other
than these, but the simulation gave realistic flock motion, even when obstacles were
placed in the flight path of the flock.
In 1988, Theodore Gordon (one of the editors of this report) and David Greenspan
(a psychiatrist) published an adaptation of Life that introduced a random factor.”
This example simulated a politician going from door-to-door in a neighborhood and
attempting to enlist each household to support his cause. The rules they placed on an
acceptance were quite simple: before any household can accept the politicians proposi-
tion, there must be at least one other household in the neighborhood that has already
accepted the proposition and, given this condition, a chance probability is imposed. The
search began in the center of the screen and spiraled outward. The patterns they achieved
ranged from very sparse at 30% probability to dense at 60% probability. The striking
aspect of this experiment was that patterns of apparent organization appeared-that
is, coherent regions of the neighborhood were either for him or against him.
Finally, the Sugarscape model represents the current state of the art in complex
adaptive system modeling.” Science News recently described the model as follows:
[Sugarscape] is a two-dimensional landscape, represented as a square grid. containing two regions rich
in a renewable resource arbitrarily called sugar. Every agent is born into this world with a metabolism
demanding sugar. and each has a number of other attributes, such a\ visual range for food detection.
that vary across the population.
They move from square to square according to a simple rule: Look around as far as your vrsion permits.
find the unoccupied spot with the most sugar, go there, and eat the sugar. As it is consumed, the sugar
grows back at a predetermined rate. An agent’s range is set by how far it can see. Every time an agent
moves. it burns an amount of sugar determined by its given metabohc rate. Agents die when they fail
to gather enough sugar to fuel their activities.!’
The agents initially move toward the sugar. Some with long vision and low metabolisms
accumulate wealth. Others become poor, just barely subsisting. When gender is added
to the instruction set, genetic properties can be inherited by progeny. and wealth
accumulated by the parents can be passed on. The beginnings of culture ensue. Epstein
and Axtell have also experimented with war. tribalism, trade. multiple assets (sugar
and spice), and bargaining.
Complex adaptive models have also been constructed at the Santa Fe Institute and
elsewhere on topics that include insect swarming, financial markets, and transporta-
tion systems.
This kind of modeling is not expected to produce exact reproductions of the past
or to yield accurate forecasts of the systems under study. Rather, they are designed as
a new domain for social and economic experimentation. The rules programmed for
individuals result in aggregate behavior, “a laboratory for social science,” as Epstein
says, that offers an easy way to perform cross-disciplinary studies.
The more conventional modes of modeling attempt to replicate systems as a whole.
The agent approach attempts to replicate systems by replicating behavior at the lowest
level of disaggregation and by building system behavior from the bottom up. The search
for guiding principles and natural laws needs not be so compelling. However, while the
results can be unexpected and apparently mirror life. there is no assurance that the
“Theodore Gordon and David Greenspan, “Chaos and Fractals: New Tools for Technological and Social
Forecasting,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 34. 1-25 (1988).
“Joshua Epstein and Robert Axtell, Growing Artificiul Socieries: Social Science From the Bottom Up.
Brookings Institutions/MIT Press, Washington, DC, 1996.
I4Ivar Peterson, “The Gods of Sugarscape,” Science Newts, November 23, 1996.
researchers have got the correct rules for individual behavior. So the models, while
useful and suggestive, are still only models.
5.4. METAWORLDS
There is another new computer domain for social experimentation: metaworlds.
Players in this domain interact with each other in a space created by a game designer.
Such multiplayer games exist on-line on the Internet; others are provided as a service
by CompuServe, America On-Line, and others. The models are generally known as
MUDS (Multi-User Dungeons, after the Dungeons and Dragons game) and MOOS
(MUDS-Object Oriented). They are in effect new communities, new social spaces,
where the players take on new identities and interact according to the rules of the game
designers or according to ad hoc rules that emerge as the games are played and the
cyberspace communities evolve. In general, MUDS provide a game environment in
which the players interact-e.g. find the bad guy before he gets you-and MOOS are
more attuned to real social environments where the rules are socially determined.
MUDS use artistic and sometimes scary landscapes; MOOS provide a virtual space and
geography. Since the rules are loose, many MOOS use “wizards,” players who through
their experience are elevated to a position of power, to set rules and adjudicate. Social
behavior, norms, and morals evolve in these worlds.
Take the MOO metaworld Kymer, for example. One user described his visits:
like everyone else, I had to figure out how the world works. 1 had to learn the conditions of
existence, and what they meant. And then there are the headhunters. Buying a head is the most
prominent way to assert your identity in Kymer. Yom choice of a head determines how other people
see you. It’s no coincidence that heads are among the most expensive artifacts in Kymer’s virtual
economy of tokens. As objects of great value, heads also attract criminals. The headhunters hang out
by the docks, waiting for the boat that brings new users to Kymer. When a newcomer disembarks, the
headhunter welcomes him with a friendly greeting. He gives the newbie a few hints on places to go and
things to do. Then he moves in.
“Here’s something fun,” he might say. “Did you know you can take off your head? Try it!” The
newcomer removes his head. “So I can! That’s pretty neat!” “Here,” says the headhunter, “let me show
you something else. Give me your head.” You would think that most people would have the sense not
to give something valuable, like their head, to a complete stranger. Judging from the number of headless
avatars I saw wandering forlornly around the streets of Kymer, a fair amount of people do not. To
combat the plague of headhunters, public-spirited citizens have started frequenting the docks just to
warn newcomers not to give their heads to strangers.”
Some social scientists are beginning to use these strange new worlds as experimental
spaces, testing for the intrinsic laws and evolution of society. It is not difficult to imagine,
for example, constructing an artificial world in which citizens of several classes emerge
and deriving from the behavior some insights about culture and intercultural norms.
Alan Gaitenby recently studied the nature of laws and legal behavior that emerged in
some MOOS. He wrote that
a partial list of prohibitions of conduct include: filling others’ space or screens with unwanted text;
moving or manipulating others against their will; spying or the creation of devices to monitor others’
actions; the creation of devices that mimic humans or otherwise trick users; and harassment. Nominally
popular democracy is the manner of virtual codification. In all MOO space, however, regardless of
how law is made or where it comes from, enforcement is a Wizardry activity: there are no police drawn
from the “citizenry,” no judicial system, no jury, and most definitely no appeal.‘”
“Robert Rossney, “Metaworlds,” Wired, June 1996.

IhSee, for example, Alan Gaitenby, “Law Mapping of Cyberspace: The Shape of New Social Space.”
Technology Forecasting and Social Change, July 1996, who uses this approach to examine the emergence of
populist law.
This is a new form of social experimentation that may in the future yield protocols for
defining and testing effective policies. With the clear possibility for improved visualiza-
tion, speech interaction, three-dimensional viewing, and other improvements, the virtual
MOO space may become a real social sphere to some that will provide an even more
intriguing way to explore human social behavior.”
“Other forms of assessing the policy effectiveness are being developed, such as scientific multiple-choice
random surveys of citizens in democracies, such as the “deliberative” and “public interest polling” of Prof.
James Fischer of the University of Texas, demonstrated on Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) stations in the
USA and the serial policy surveys of the Public Interest Polling Project of the Congressional Institute for the
Future and the Americans Talk Issues Foundation in 1993.
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 2x9
Appendix B
ANNOTATED SCENARIO BIBLIOGRAPHY-TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY SECTION
BY SUSAN E. JETTE
At Home with High Technology (Special Issue), IEEE Spectrum, 22.5, May 198.5.
A technology scenario, late 20th to 21st century.
Article on high-tech home systems and a scenario on what could happen if the
systems do not perform as they should. Tongue-in-cheek account of high-tech devices
malfunctioning in the home, including an automatic sprinkler system, the VCR, remote-
controlled appliances, and a built-in security system, among others.
The Possible Futures of Multimedia, Anderson Consulting, 1994. URL: (http://www.

ac.com/tag/execsum.html). Four scenarios of multimedia to the 21st century.
Anderson Consulting tackles the uncertainties of multimedia technologies using
scenario-based planning. The scenario development process involved a cross section of
expertise from both inside and outside the firm. The work revealed two major uncertain-
ties or driving forces that are believed to have significant influence on how multimedia
technology will impact the future: the quality of demand and the state of the economy.
Scenario 1: Virtual World. This is a richly interactive future-a future in which business
and consumer users don’t so much choose as cocreate the products and services they
want. So important is multimedia in Virtual World that it begins to blur the boundaries
between “business” and “consumer” environments and contributes to a fundamental
restructuring of industry. Scenario 2: Bizworld. Multimedia plays out differently in the
consumer and business envirbnments. In the consumer market, it is simply a tool to
navigate through many choices. In the business market, applications are more robust
and provide businesses a means of creating a more productive work environment.
Scenario 3: Upstairs Downstairs. This is a future that plays out the polarization of
wealth in the developed nations as well as a split of the population across the acceptance
of technology lines. This results in a scenario of haves and have-nots. It combines
features of Virtual World (haves) and Slow Boat (have-nots). Scenario 4: Slow Boat.
This is a blocked scenario, a scenario in which the big news is no real news. Slow Boat
is a world in which users accept limited choice as the primary value-added and in which
the economy stays slow. Multimedia is the revolution that never came.
How Digital Uses Scenarios to Rethink the Present, Lucia Lute Quinn and David
H. Mason, Planning Review, November/December 1994. Five scenarios utilized as
business models.
This case study of scenario planning at Digital shows how top management uses
the process for testing, probing, pushing, and provoking strategic thinking about the
future. Middle managers find the scenarios helpful for modeling their current businesses.
Mason states, “Most people believe that scenarios are always about the future, but this
is not so. Scenarios can offer different perspectives on what is happening today and
can stimulate productive discussions. The scenarios we developed at Digital were actually
business models, not long-term visions”-an interesting alternative view of scenarios.
Quinn goes on to describe the models. Model A addressed commodity businesses.
Model B concerned an architectural franchise or technology-driven business. Model C
was a networking and utilities business at a time beyond the initial stage of convergence.
(Convergence is the concept that data transmissions, cable, phone, software, and comput-
ers will become a unified system). Model D was the systems-integration business. Regard-
less of the product or service, such businesses provide value-added solutions, mainly
through their people skills. Model E was what most managers consider an ideal business.
Rethinking Nuclear Power, Richard K. Lester, Scientific American, 254:3, March

1986, 31-39. Scenarios of nuclear power to 2000.
An excellent and highly technical overview of nuclear power. At the-end of the
article, three scenarios are presented: “The range of possible futures for nuclear power
in the US thus comes down to three broad possibilities. One is a return to light-water
reactor (LWR) technology in an improved form, perhaps in as little as a decade. The
revival of the technology would take place within a more streamlined industry, with
fewer and more competent organizations operating in a stabler regulatory climate.
Foreign LWR suppliers, having enjoyed livelier domestic markets in the meantime,
would introduce many of the improvements and might figure commercially in the US
revival. In the second scenario, conventional LWRs would fail to regain commercial
acceptance, but after some years one or more second-generation reactor technologies
conceived for small size, passive safety, and centralized, modular fabrication would
reestablish nuclear power as a major source of electricity for the next century. At the
moment it is not possible to say which of the first two scenarios represents the likelier
outcome, and indeed there is no need to do so. Efforts to reform existing institutions
and to improve conventional technologies should go forward along with explorations
of radical new technologies. Neglecting either approach will make all the likelier the
third outcome: the disappearance of nuclear power as an option for the future. That is
a loss the nation could ill afford.”
Arthur C. Clarke’s July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st Century, Arthur C. Clarke, New
York: Macmillan, 1986. A technology scenario to 2019.
Direct communication between the mind and computers is the dominant element
of this scenario about work in the 21st century. A multitude of computer-based assistants
do most of the routine tasks-filing, scheduling, bookkeeping, and the like-while
humans take care of problems that aren’t easily anticipated, making complex decisions
and exercising their creativity. At the heart of this scenario is a set of technologies that
includes artificial intelligence (AI), intelligence amplifiers, and mind-computer linkages.
Bulletin from the Future, Max Frankel, New York Times Magazine, September 29,
1996. A computer scenario to the year 2096.
Scenario of a drastic event in which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
announces that an epidemic is spreading on allcontinents, clogging channels of communi-
cation, including live links to human nervous systems (in this scenario, miniature or
nanotechnology computers are inside human beings). The agency advises that a com-
puter virus has been unleashed, which appears to have incapacitated key links in the
Universal Network and destroyed financial records across the earth. The most severe
damage occurs in advanced nations, with the US standing to lose nearly a century’s
records. The entire world goes back to the use of paper, and the bulletin announces,
for example, that the USA Times-Journal will publish limited paper bulletins containing
government advisories and other crisis news, but without its customary interactive
features, games, and advertisements. The company is reopening printing plants that
were mothballed a decade ago when the last subscribers switched to compuphones that
receive customized newspapers. “The CDC is working urgently to develop an effective
vaccine that will repel the guilty virus and permit at least limited resumption of computer
management and an early restoration of public services.” Culprit suspected to be

from Asia.
Toward the Electronic Book, Nathanial Lande, Publishers Weekly, September 20,
1991, 28-30. Smart cards scenario to the 2lst century.
This article sketches a “scenario” of users inserting reusable Smartcards into vending
machines called Bookbanks. These Smartcards are about the same size as credit cards,
and Bookbanks can be found in bookstores and libraries around the world. These
digitized cards have a 200-megabyte capacity that can contain an average of 200 books.
They can be inserted into a Bookmark player with a paper-sized screen. The Bookmark
player would have such features as buttons to turn pages, and an adapter for CD-ROM
disc and video play. This is technologically feasible, and “although the electronic book
will not soon replace the pleasures of book covers and pages to turn, in time it will
become standard as the Nintendo generation, a generation much more familiar with
computer visuals than with print, catches on.” Publishers will benefit because problems
of distribution, printing, and storage will be eliminated, and there are enormous environ-
mental advantages in keeping millions of acres of forest out of the paper pulp mills.
Potential solution to deforestation, by using technology and market forces.
The Information Millennium: Alternative Futures, Clement Betold and Robert L.

Olson, Washington, DC: Information Industry Association, 1992. Information sce-
narios to 2000.
A study of the future of information conducted by the Institute for Alternative
Futures for the Information Industry Association poses four scenarios driven by ad-
vanced information technologies. Scenario 1: The High-Tech Information Society. ,4
booming economy, traditional American “achievement values,” and advanced informa-
tion technologies drive the high-tech information society. The information industry
grows at twice the rate of the gross national product (GNP). Information products and
services are individually tailored. Privacy is not a problem as a result of both new
encryption technologies and public acceptance of less privacy. Government plays a
limited role in the information marketplace, and there is a heavy reliance on the
marketplace to resolve problems relating to the information society. Scenario 2: The
Creative Society. Rapid technological progress and a dynamic economy drive this sce-
nario. However, the information revolution and a profound change in values result in
more expressive, socially focused actions. Personal growth and social progress are as
important as financial success. Privacy is rigorously protected. Government interference
in the information marketplace is very limited. Scenario 3: Things Bog Down. Slow
technological progress, significant failures in AI technologies. and poor economic condi-
tions result in slow growth of the information society. Privacy becomes a major concern,
and government takes a major role in regulating the information economy. A gap
between the “knows” and “know-nots” develops. Scenario 4: 1984 and Beyond. Tough
economic times, an AIDS epidemic, and terrorism lead to public acceptance of greater
government surveillance and control. Privacy is swept away as government and corporate
access to sensitive personal information becomes commonplace.
Information Technology and Global Interdependence, Edited by Meheroo Jussa-

walla, Tadayuki Okuma, and Toshihiro Araki. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press,
1989. Information technology scenario to 2016.
A scenario on the impact of ISDNs (integrated services digital networks) on interde-
pendence-30-year scenario of development to 2016, culminating in an emerging “world
brain” concept of managing complexity and a possible series of “information wars” or

information terrorism.
Great Infrastructure Debate: An Industry Leader Symposium, Northeast Consulting

Resources, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts. Information highway scenarios to 2000.
Thirty planners, policy-makers, and thinkers from a diverse group of organizations
came together in 1994 to participate in a 2-day conference to debate alternative scenarios
for the evolution of the US information superhighway. Key findings: there is a great
deal of risk associated with all of the different models for infrastructure build out, and
there are so many competing approaches that all can’t possibly be successful. Five
scenarios were presented and plausibly linked to the future of the information superhigh-
way. Scenario 1: ClubInfo. Alliances of carrier, content provider, and ancillary companies
are formed to rapidly build an infrastructure and the systems required to deliver informa-
tion services. Although each alliance is comprised of many independent companies, a
common brand name is used for alliance services. Scenario 2: Welcome to the Carnival.
Rapid advances in technology drive an explosion in the number of communications
and content services and corresponding growth in the number of service providers.
Information and edutainment services spring up on a variety of networks, which include
plain old telephone service (POTS), cellular telephones, cable television (CATV), data-
base services (DBS), etc. Scenario 3: The Information-Empowered Society. Technology
takes a back seat to national interests. The construction of a national infrastructure
creates a competitive advantage for the US in a global economy. Government sponsor-
ship and stewardship ensure that a network linking schools, libraries, hospitals, homes,
and businesses is not trivialized by the commercial sector. Government must be a strong
advocate to ensure that the national network provides value to the nation. Scenario 4:
Content Is King. A network bandwidth is now as much a commodity as personal
computers. Network building provides access to competing networks from most Ameri-
can homes and businesses, leaving carriers with more capacity than content. Competition
among carriers has driven down prices. Scenario 5: Least Time to Money. A world in
which tight alliances between industry players allow a rapid build out of the infrastructure
and rapid deployment of applications that yield revenue. The risks in building an
interactive broadband network are huge-the best strategy is to spread the risk among
many industry players.
Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution, K. Eric Drexler and Chris
Peterson, with Gayle Pergamit, Foreword by Stewart Brand, New York: William
Morrow, 1991. Nanotechnology scenarios through the 21st century.
The development of technology for building molecule-sized machines (nanotechnol-
ogy) results in a host of changes ranging from health to climate. In a series of miniscenar-
ios scattered throughout this book, the impacts of nanotechnology are illustrated. Among
the developments are nanomedicine, microscopic devices injected into the body that
will hunt down and kill cancers, remove injured or diseased tissue, repair arthritic joints,
and eliminate wrinkles and unwanted hair; nanocomputers, computing devices the size
of a sugar cube that can outperform any supercomputer currently available and storage
devices that let you carry a library containing all the information in the world’s libraries
in your pocket; nanoengineering, molecular devices that can be programmed to build
flawless cars, bridges, rockets, or whatever you want; nanoenvironmentalism, microscop-
ing robots that clean toxic substances from the environment. This book also looks at
some of the threats that uncontrolled access to nanotechnology would present.
The Museum of Nanotechnology, Charles Platt, Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition,

December 1995. Developments in nanotechnology arrayed as scientific landmarks
described in rich imagery by Michael Crumpton. Useful to scenario work.
Nanotechnology provides tiny and great leaps for the human race. In the future,
nanotechnology is used for everything from DNA data storage to anti-cancer nanomach-
ines to nanoscale braille. A more interesting and grand use of nanotechnology in 2050
is asteroid terraforming. The museum aptly describes it: “Asteroid terraforming-the
asteroid (imaged in the scenario) is being reworked by preprogrammed nanoscale robots
to create a fully equipped space habitat for human colonists. The robots were sent
out on a conventional rocket that crash-landed on the preselected asteroid. After the
nanosystems used indigenous carbon and metal ores to make billions of copies of
themselves, they set to work converting the asteroid. When human colonists arrive,
they will find comfortable residences ready and waiting. Since this initiative began in
2050. almost 5 million people have relocated to the asteroid belt. Already we are seeing
a new generation that has never experienced life on Earth.”
The Computer for the 21st Century, Mark Weiser, Scientific American, 2653, Septem-
ber 1991, 94-104. Computer technology scenario to the 21st century.
Normative scenario of the future of computer technology that describes a future
in which computers have become invisible and ubiquitous. Advantages: technology will
become faster, easier to use, and more personal and will penetrate all social strata.
Weiser states that, most importantly, ubiquitous computing will help to overcome infor-
mation overload.
Communicating in a Shrinking World, Tony Stevenson, Papers de Prospectiva, Centre

UNESCO de Catalunya, Barcelona. Communications scenarios to 2020.
Four scenarios of the year 2020 suggest the possibilities of communications technolo-
gies. Scenario 1: Gold Lame and Sackcloth. In this world, the nation-state is slowly
replaced by elite global networks; the have/have-not gap continues to widen: more regions
are marginalized while culture is globalized, with the English language more widely
used, and life becomes more automated while the environment becomes more artificial.
Scenario 2: Drab Uniform. In this world, the confusion of communications and networks
encourages global centralizing authorities. Global uniformity, efficiency, and productiv-
ity are supreme values. Concentrated networks of business and self-serving interests
are enabled by communications and information technologies, thus replacing nation-
states. Scenario 3: Rich Tapestry. In this world, the wealth and information gap begins
to close, a rich tapestry of diversity is valued most, the nation-state is largely replaced
by a network of communities largely self-organizing at local and regional levels; several
languages emerge in international use (especially Chinese). Scenario 4: Bazaar. Some
slight closing of the rich/poor gap, a variety of fabrics, and a mosaic of networks coexist
with patches of centralized authority: ownership of networks fairly widespread. with
great variation among regions.
Future o,f Telecommunications Scenarios for MCI, MCI Scenario Planning Group,
URL: (http://www.cornell.edu/courses/nba61O/am6/mci5.html). Four telecommunica-
tions scenarios to the year 2014.
A planning group for MCI assessed scenarios of the future of telecommunications.
Trends that impact the scenarios include bandwidth capacity and demand, government
regulation, acceptance of digital commerce, convergence of communications and content
technologies. revenue source (consumers versus advertisers), mergers and acquisitions,
and wire versus wireless transmission. Critical uncertainties include the convergence
of communications and content technologies and revenue sources (consumers versus
advertisers). Scenario 1: Waldman’s World. In this world there is little convergence of
communications and content technologies. Consumers are the primary source of reve-
nue. There is a clear distinction between local, long-distance, and wireless (cellular)
services and service providers; the Internet is a commercial flop (its main purpose is to
repackage existing products); users pay for basic access to the telecommunications
system and additional charges for useage and extra services. Scenario 2: Bierman’s
Basement. Like the previous scenario, there is little convergence of communications
and content technologies. However, advertisers are the primary source of revenue. In
this world, the following occur: there is a clear distinction between telecommunications
and cable TV services; Internet commerce thrives and is used for designed products;
there is a dramatic reduction in the number of telecommunications carriers; telecommu-
nications companies battle cable companies for revenue. Scenario 3: The Kampas Con-
struct. In this scenario, there is significant convergence of communications and content
technologies and consumers are the primary source of revenue. Telecommunications
infrastructures merge and become “universal service providers” (USPS). USPS provide
wire/wireless communications, networking, and home entertainment; consumers pay
for commercial-free entertainment; traditional TV advertising and broadcast networks
become endangered. Scenario 4: The Stayman Situation. Like scenario 3, there is a
significant convergence of communications and content technologies. However, advertis-
ers’ consumers are the primary source of revenue. Advertisements combine with enter-
tainment as major revenue sources; demographic information and targeted ads sell for
a premium; telephone service is cheap; partnering with or acquisition of market research
and ratings companies occurs.
The Internet-Leveling the Development Playing Field or Broadening the Gap?,

Gerald Garner, URL: (http://www.ac.za/departments/journ/awoUinternetdev.html).
Two Internet and development scenarios to the 21st century.
The Internet is part of the information revolution, pointing 20th-century society
into a new direction. What does this mean for Africa and for other developing areas?
Can the Internet enhance development? Or will it only broaden the gap between the
“have” and “have-riots”“” Two scenarios for Africa and the information revolution are
described. Scenario 1: Africa takes advantage of the information revolution and leapfrogs
into a new age of development. This describes the story of Internet-enhanced develop-
ment and closes the have-have-not gap by making more people educated and competi-
tive. Scenario 2: Africa misses the opportunity and is left behind, totally isolated, and
drops far behind the developed world. The biggest problem with the Internet in this
world is access and literacy. People can’t use the Internet if they can’t read, nor can
they if they can’t afford to pay for the services.
Technology and the American Economic Transition: Choices for the Future, Office
of Technology Assessment, 1988. URL: (http://www.gbn.org/BookClub/OTAhtml).
US technology and economy scenarios to 21st century.
This Office of Technology Assessment report (now formally the OTA) “makes an
imaginative, well-analyzed, documented, and reasoned argument for the growing im-
pulse that rapid technological change is bringing to the US and other modern industrial
economies. It is very rich in data on nearly all aspects of American life and has thoroughly
examined a great variety of possibilities in depth. The mode of analysis is genuinely
inventive as it explores the networks of consumption and production and how technology
could reconfigure those networks,” says Peter Schwartz in Global Business Network.
This book projects four scenarios, with clear logic and two steady growth paths of 3%
or 1.5% for the next two decades. The authors came to the surprising conclusion that
despite massive technical change, there will be very little structural and fundamental
change in US society that results from the impacts of technology.
Politics in a Parallel Universe: Is There a Future for Cyberdemocracy? Michael R.

Odgen, Futures, 267, September 1994, 713-729. Scenarios of cyberdemocracy to
21st century.
For years cyberspace has received little interference from government or business.
However, with government, commercial, and public attention turning toward the global
Internet and the proposed US national information infrastructure, this is all about to
change. Two possible scenarios are presented. Scenario 1: Cyberdemocracy (or Jeffer-
sonian Networks). “Founded on the primacy of individual liberty and committed to
pluralism, diversity, and community” this form is “largely free of metered services and
restricted access; the best ‘schools’ and teachers [are] available to all students; access
to government information becomes a right of all ‘netizens’ in the facilitation of their
informed participation in the democratic process.” Scenario 2: Virtual Mercantilism (or
Digital Gold Rush). “The private sector builds the information highway and controls
terms of access, use, and content. This also includes responsibilities for netizens, as
suggested by the ‘Bill of Rights and Responsibilities for Electronic Learners’.”
Nanotechnology: Scenarios of Development and Impact, Alan L. Porter and Freder-

ick A. Rossini, Science and Public Policy, 17:4, August I990, 229-234. Three nano-
technology scenarios to 21st century.
Nanotechnology is the manipulation of processes at the molecular scale. This article
examines nanotechnology and provides three scenarios. Scenario 1: Incremental impacts
that begin in the 1990s. Scenario 2: High technoeconomic impacts, in which nanotechnol-
ogy becomes the basis for much industrial production and underlies infotechnology
(which could occur by 2015). Scenario 3: Total societal impact in which nanotechnology
thoroughly transforms society, the “engines of creation” create unbounded wealth. and
the economics of scarcity are displaced by a new economics of distribution.
Technology Spares the Environment: Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, Coor-

dinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute o,f Technology, URL: (http://www.h,f cal
tech.edulh,f).
The 21st century emerges as an era of techno-optimism. Accelerating technological
advances help to boost industrial efficiencies, prosperity, and environmental sustainabil-
ity throughout most of the world. These technological advances are driven in part by
market competition, which tends to reward firms and societies that produce more for
less. The dramatic efficiency gains in the use of land, energy, materials, and labor
unleashed by technology and market competition outpace population growth and in-
crease per capita consumption. The world economy becomes better equipped to meet
human needs with less land, pollution, and natural resources. Dire warnings of wide-
spread food shortages, pollution, overpopulation, and environmental depletion never
materialize.
A Technology-Rich Global Society: Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, Coordi-
nated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology, URL: (http://www.h,fcal
tech.edu/hf ).
This scenario assumes that modern food storage and transport techniques can be
deployed essentially everywhere over the next 50 years. That alone would double today’s
useable food supplies. Provision of adequate irrigation water on existing agricultural

land would double food supplies again. Thus, even without further gains in yields, food
is not a problem if there are adequate supplies of water and energy.
More Human than Man: The Future Evolution and Consequences of Metamachines,
Collected Works of Patrick Gunkel, Chapter 18: Transitional and Posthuman Scenar-
ios. 304 future scenarios involving metamachines.
“The word ‘metamachines’ has been coined to refer to mechanical minds or beings
whose intellectual, psychic, behavioral, or ontic level or sophistication resembles or
even surpasses man’s (‘metamechanical’ is the related adjective). These metamachines
of the future will virtually transcend what we mean by machine or by the distinction
between mechanical and organic entities; hence, they merit a new category and a new
designation. Ultimately they will so surpass-in power and complexity-life and mind
as we know them that biological organisms and brains will be what deserve derogation
as ‘merely mechanical’.” Listed here are developmental, transitional, and posthuman
scenarios that concern the future of metamachines either directly or indirectly and that
are fairly exhaustive of the major possibilities. The scenarios treat different dimensions
of the subject; different issues, concepts, problems, and possibilities; different factors,
circumstances, sequences, assumptions, and relationships; different chronologies, topics,
and perspectives; some represent sets of alternatives, others overlapping, similar, dissimi-
lar, and unrelated possibilities; some are general, others specialized in nature; some
focus on causes, others on effects, still others on abstract relationships; some describe
what is probable, others what is merely possible, others what is unlikely or impossible;
some are optimistic, some pessimistic-and so on. Some of the 304 scenario titles
include Brain Research Origin Scenario, Robot Civil Rights Scenario, Peace through
AI Scenario, AI Research Breakthroughs Scenario, Dehumanization of Man by AI
Scenario.
Received 12 February 1997; accepted 8 August 1997

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NOR’M-HOLUND

The Millennium Project

1. Introduction and Background’

1.1 THE FIRST YEAR’S OPERATIONS

?? a global panel of experts, referred to as the Global Look-Out Panel, which

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 56, 203-296 (1997)

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4

Collected 142 ____t Rated likelihood h Distilled 15 issues h Interview leaders

developments. importance, with actions to be in Gov., UN,

Create 3 * Integrate * Review scenarios. h Put in Annual

Global Scenario Developments into Report & Internet

Cross-Impact e Extend scenarios

Fig. 1. Overview of first year’s operation.

1.1.1. Global Look-Out Study

1.1.2 Global Scenarios

THE GLOBAL ISSUES, THE ACTIONS AND A RANGE OF VIEWS ON

to consider, improvements, related alternatives, or arguments against the action were

2.1. WORLD POPULATION IS GROWING: FOOD, WATER, EDUCATION,

Additional Interviewee Comments

Actions to Address Issue 1, with a Range of Views on These Actions

powerful. Only UN organizations leading this action would be acceptable. . . Financial

Additional Actions’ for Issue 1

2.2. FRESH WATER IS BECOMING SCARCE IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE WORLD

Additional Comments on Issue 2

Actions to Address Issue 2, with a Range of Views on These Actions

Additional Actions to Address Issue 2

Additional Interviewee Comments

Actions to Address Issue 3, with a Range of Views on these Actions

2.3.6. TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORPORATIONS. IN COLLABORATION WITH NGOS,

2.3.11.* GOVERNMENTS AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR SHOULD CREATE AN INTER-

Additional Actions to Address Issue 3

2.4. THE THREAT OF NEW AND RE-EMERGING DISEASES AND IMMUNE

Additional Interviewee Comments

Actions to Address Issue 4, with a Range of Views on These Actions

2.4.8.GOVERNMENTS, NGOS, AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD CO-

Additional Actions for Issue 4

2.S.THERE IS A DIMINISHING CAPACITY TO DECIDE AS ISSllES BECOME MORE GLOBAL

Additional Interviewee Comments

Actions to Address Issue 5, with a Range of Views on These Actions

Additional Actions for Issue 5

security. Is there a third alternative to a system of national sovereignty and global

2.6. TERRORISM IS INCREASINGLY DESTRUCTIVE, PROLIFERATING, AND

Additional Interviewee Comments

Actions to Address Issue 6, with a Range of Views on These Actions

Additional Actions for Issue 6

2.7. THERE ARE ADVERSE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE GROWTH OF

Additional Interviewee Comments

Actions to Address Issue 7, with a Range of Views on These Actions

. . . Include the cost in destruction of resources. . Corporations will fight it. . . . It is

A SUSTAINABLE MANNER. Labeling is good, but difficult for developing countries’

Additional Actions for Issue 7

2.8. THE STATUS OF WOMEN IS CHANGING

Additional Interviewee Comments

Actions to Address Issue 8, with a Range of Views on These Actions

WOMEN’S STATUS AND ADVANCEMENT. Linkage also can be made by international

Additional Actions for Issue 8

2.9. THE SEVERITY OF RELIGIOUS, ETHNIC, AND RACIAL CONFLICTS IS INCREASING

Additional Interviewee Comments

by Delors. There is no mention of authoritarian regimes’ coercive practices, external