CHAPTER EIGHT

8. SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING
8.1. Definition of Systematic Sample and Selection Procedures

Systematic sampling is a more commonly used selection procedure. Systematic sampling means
the selection of units at a fixed interval from a list, starting from a randomly determined point. In
other words, it involves selecting units from a list using a selection interval, say 𝑘, so that every
𝑘 𝑡ℎ element on the list, following a random start selected between 1 and k, is included in the
sample. Systematic sampling is normally carried out as follows considering different cases.
8.1.1. When the interval (k) is an integer or assumes a whole number

If a sample of size n units is to be selected systematically from a list of population consisting of

𝑁 units, where n is multiple of n, then 𝑘 = 𝑁/𝑛 is a sampling interval from which a random
number between 1 and k is chosen. Let this random number be j and we then select a units
numbered as 𝑗, 𝑗 + 𝑘, 𝑗 + 2𝑘, 𝑗 + 3𝑘, … , 𝑗 + (𝑛 − 1)𝑘, until we arrive at the required sample size.

For example, consider the farm survey in which 𝑛 = 8,000 farms are to be selected using
144,000
systematic sampling from N=144,000 farms. The selection interval is 𝑘 = 𝑁/𝑛 = = 18.
8,000

We must find a random start number between 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 18 inclusive, and then take every 18th
thereafter. If the random start number between 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 18 𝑖𝑠 12, then the units in the sample would
corresponds to the farms numbered 12, 30, 48, 66, 84, … , 143994. Once the sampling interval (k)
is determined, the random selection of the starting point determines the whole sample. In this case
there are 18 possible samples that can be chosen, i.e., for 𝑗 = 1, 2, … , 18.
1 1 𝑛 1
For this design the sampling fraction is 𝑓 = 𝑘 = 𝑁 = 𝑁 = 18
𝑛

8.1.2. When the interval k=N/n is not an integer

This is a method of taking a systematic sample of 1 𝑖𝑛 𝑘 elements that will always lead to unbiased
estimates of population means, totals, and proportions when k is not an integer. This method
requires prior knowledge of the population size 𝑁. The procedure of this method is as follows:

1. Choose a random number between 1 and N where N is the number of elements in the
population.
2. Compute the quotient j/k, where j is the random number selected and k is the sampling
interval. Express this quotient as an integer plus a remainder.
3. If the remainder is 0, take a systematic sample of 1 𝑖𝑛 𝑘, elements in the usual way
beginning with element k. If the remainder is nonzero, say m, take a systematic sample of
1 in k elements, beginning with element m.

Sampling Theory | Chapter EIGHT | Systematic Sampling 1

Example: Suppose we wish to take a 1-in-6 sample from a list of 26 employees. Since k is
26 2
determined (k=6), the required sample size is 𝑛 = 𝑁⁄𝑘 = 6 = 4 6 ≈ 4

We need to select 4 employees using systematic sampling with interval k=6.

Instead of taking a random number between 1 and 6 to start the systematic sampling, we must take
a random number j between 1 and 26, and j will have 26 possible values.
𝑗 8 2
Let j be 8. We then divide 8 by 6 and determine the remainder, i.e., 𝑘 = 6 = 1 6 , the remainder is
2 (m=2). We take a systematic sample 1 in 6, starting with the 2nd employee, and obtain
2,8, 14, 20 on the list.

𝑗
When 𝑗 = 24, the quotient ⁄𝑘 = 4⁄6 = 4, and the remainder 𝑚 = 0. In this case we take a
systematic sample 1 in 6, starting with k=6. Then we obtain 6,12,18,24 on the list.

8.1.3. Cluster systematic sampling

This method can be used where N is or is not a multiple of n. it consists of choosing a random start
between 1 and N and thereafter, every kth unit in a cyclical manner, until a sample of n units is
obtained, where k is to the nearest integer N/n . Generally, if j is a random start,1 ≤ 𝑗 ≤ 𝑁, the
following serial numbers will be selected into the sample.

𝑗 + 𝑖𝑘, if 𝑗 + 𝑖𝑘 < 𝑁, and 𝑗 + 𝑖𝑘 − 𝑁, if 𝑗 + 𝑖𝑘 ≥ 𝑁, for 𝑖 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛 − 1.

Example: - For illustration purpose let the population size N=14, and the sample size n=5. The
𝑁 14 4
value of the interval is k= 𝑛 = = 2 5≈3
5

We choose a random start j between 1 and 14. Let j=7. Then a systematic sample 1 in 3 would
produce samples with the following serial numbers.

For i=0,1,2,3,4 and j=7, we obtain the following numbers either by using j+ik or j+ik-N.

7+0x3=7, if i=0

7+1x3=10, if i=1

7+2x3=13, if i=2

7+3x3-14=2, if i=3

7+4x3-14=5, if i=4

These numbers are located on the circle to show cyclical arrangement.

Sampling Theory | Chapter EIGHT | Systematic Sampling 2

 8.2.The Estimated Mean and Its Variance
In examining the systematic samples, it is operationally equivalent to grouping the N elements into
k clusters, each containing n elements that are k units apart on the list, and then taking a random
sample of one of these clusters.

If he units are listed randomly, this is similar to simple random sampling. But, if the units are listed
in order by a specific attribute such as age group, income group, etc, then this is similar to stratified
sampling. This process will reduce the sampling error associated with a randomly ordered list by
ensuring that each group is represented in the sample in a proportion equal to its proportion in the
underlying population.

Several formulas have been developed for the variance of 𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 , the mean of a systematic sample.
However, a systematic sampling can be treated just like a simple random sample for the purpose
of analysis provided that certain conditions are met.

The basic requirement of this is that the list used as the sampling frame must not have any intrinsic
regularity or periodicity of its own.

Consider all possible samples of 1-in-k elements.

Random Number Chosen

Sample units 1 2- - - j - - - k
1 1 2- - - J- - - k
2 1+k 2+k j+k 2k
3 1+2k 2+2k j+2k 3k
, , , , ,
, , , , ,
, , , , ,
R 1+(r-1)k 2+(r-1)k j+(r-1)k rk
, , , , ,
, , , , ,
, , , , ,
N 1+(n-1)k 2+(n-1)k - - - j+(n-1)k - - - Nk

Sampling Theory | Chapter EIGHT | Systematic Sampling 3

Corresponding to this points we find the value Yjr where Yjr represents the rth element of the jth
systematic sample (r=1,2,…,n; j=1,2,…,k). N=nk
∑𝑛
𝑟=1 𝑦𝑗𝑟
𝑦̅𝑗 = ,
𝑛

∑𝑘 𝑛
𝑗=1 ∑𝑟=1 𝑌𝑗𝑟 ∑𝑘 ̅𝑗
𝑗=1 𝑦
𝑌̅ = = , the mean of sample means
𝑁 𝑘

2 2
∑𝑘𝑗=1 ∑𝑛𝑟=1(𝑦𝑗𝑟 − 𝑌̅) ∑𝑘𝑗=1 ∑𝑛𝑟=1(𝑦𝑗𝑟 − 𝑌̅)
2
𝑆 = =
𝑁−1 𝑛𝑘 − 1
𝟐
∑𝒌𝒋=𝟏(𝒚 ̅)
̅𝒋 −𝒀
Variance of the mean: S𝒂𝟐 = 𝒌−𝟏

Like cluster sampling, the parameter ƿw is the correlation coefficient between pairs of units that
are in the same systematic sample. The variance of the means in terms of this ƿw would be S𝒂𝟐 =
(𝑵−𝟏)[ƿw(n−1)+1]
. In systematic sampling, the estimated mean denoted by 𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 is simply one of the
𝒏𝟐 (𝒌−𝟏)
∑𝑛
𝑟=1 𝑦𝑗𝑟
𝑦̅𝑗 ’s, depending on which random number was chosen to start sampling. Therefore,𝑦̅𝑠𝑦= =
𝑛
𝑦̅𝑗 .

Theorem 8.1: Let yjr denotes the rth element of the jth systematic sample with N=nk, where
j=1,2,…,k; r=1,2,…,n. Then the mean of systematic sample, 𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 , is an unbiased estimate of 𝑌̅, and
𝟐 2
∑𝒌𝒋=𝟏(𝒚 ̅)
̅𝒋 −𝒀 𝑘−1 𝟐 ∑𝑘 ̅ 𝑗 −𝑌̅)
𝑗=1(𝑦
its variance is V(𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 )= = S𝒂 where : S𝑎2 = . prove this theorem.
𝒌 𝑘 𝑘−1

Corollary: Expressing the variance of the mean of a systematic sample in terms of ƿw

𝑘−1 𝟐 𝑁−1 𝑠2 𝑠2
is:V(𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 )= S𝒂 = 𝑁 𝑛 [ƿw(n − 1) + 1]= 𝑛 [ƿw(n − 1) + 1], for large N.
𝑘

8.3. Comparison of systematic sampling With SRS

The mean of a systematic sample is more precise than the mean of a SRS when ƿw is small and
1
negative. Show that ƿ𝑤 ≤ − 𝑁−1 if 𝑉(𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 ) ≤ 𝑉(𝑦̅).

1
 If ƿ𝑤 ≤ − 𝑁−1, then 𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 is more precise. This can occur when the populations are ordered
with respect to the variable.
1
 If ƿ𝑤 = − 𝑁−1 or ƿ𝑤 = 0, for large N, then they are equally efficient. This can occur when
the population’s elements are arranged in random order with respect to the variable under
the study.
1
 If If ƿ𝑤 > − 𝑁−1 or ƿ𝑤 > 0, for large N, then 𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 is less efficient. This can happen when
the population’s elements are arranged in a list demonstrating a high degree of periodicity.

Sampling Theory | Chapter EIGHT | Systematic Sampling 4

 8.4. Estimation of the Variance from a Single Sample
Consider a case where the population is in “random order”. That is, there is no trend or
stratification in the study variable, and no correlation between neighboring values. In this case
systematic sampling is equivalent to simple random sampling, 𝑉𝑠𝑦 = 𝑉𝑟𝑎𝑛. Then the sample
2
1−𝑓 2 2 ∑𝑛
𝑟=1(𝑦𝑗𝑟 −𝑦
̅𝑗)
variance is V(𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 )= S𝑦𝑗 , where 𝑠𝑦𝑗 = , for sample j.
𝑛 𝑛−1

8.5. Estimation of Mean/Total from Repeated Systematic Sampling (Sub-samples)

Suppose that the required sample size n is selected from N in the form of two or more (say m)
systematic sub-samples of the same size with independent random start. Assumes that these m sub-
samples, each of size 𝑛’ = 𝑛/𝑚, are to be selected from the population of N units. Also let 𝑁/𝑛 =
𝑘, then, select m random start using srs wr or wor, for each m sub-samples, from 1 to k’, where
𝑘′ = 𝑚𝑘. Let 𝑦̅1 ,𝑦̅2 ,…., 𝑦̅𝑚 be the estimators of the population mean based on m such sub-
′
∑𝑛
𝑗=1 𝑦𝑖𝑗
samples, each of size n/m, i.e., 𝑦̅𝑖 = .
𝑛′

For systematic random sampling without replacement,

∑𝑚 ̅𝑖
𝑖=1 𝑦
i) 𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 = , i=1, 2, . . . ,m, which is unbiased estimator of population mean 𝑌̅.
𝑚
𝑘−1 ′
ii) V(𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 )=𝑘𝑚(𝑚−1) ∑𝑘𝑖=1(𝑦̅𝑖 − 𝑌̅)2 , i=1,2 . . . ,𝑘 ′ , with its unbiased estimator given
𝑘−1 2
byV(𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 )=𝑘𝑚(𝑚−1) ∑𝑚
𝑖=1(𝑦
̅𝑖 − 𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 )
Example: A diary research institute is interested in estimating the total milk the total milk yield
of a cow in connection with a breading program. The total lactation period was taken as 300 days.
It was decided to select 3 systematic sub-samples without replacement, each of size 10 days, so to
arrive at a total sample size of 30 days. Milk yield recorded for the selected days is given below.
The random start used for each sub-sample was 1, 12, and 26.

Sub-sample I Sub-sample II Sub-sample III

Selected days Milk yield Selected days Milk yield Selected days Milk yield
1 8.10 12 9.30 26 11.15
31 12.00 42 13.50 56 14.70
61 15.20 72 14.40 86 14.60
91 14.00 102 14.35 116 12.80
121 11.25 132 9.80 146 10.65
151 10.10 162 10.00 176 10.60
181 9.80 192 8.60 206 8.30
211 8.75 222 8.40 236 7.50
241 7.25 252 6.10 266 4.30
271 4.10 282 3.10 296 2.20
Mean 10.055 9.755 9.680
Estimate the total milk (in liters) and estimate the variance.

𝑁 = 300, 𝑛 = 30, 𝑚 = 3, 𝑘 = 𝑁/𝑛 = 300/30 = 10

Sampling Theory | Chapter EIGHT | Systematic Sampling 5

Select 𝑛’ = 𝑛/𝑚 = 30/3 = 10 from 300 with interval of 𝑘’ = 𝑚𝑘 = 3𝑥 10 = 30,
𝑁 300
𝑌̂𝑠𝑦 =𝑚 ∑𝑚 ̅𝑖 = 3 (10.055 + 9.755 + 9.680) = 2949 𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠
𝑖=1 𝑦

𝑚
𝑁 2 (𝑘 − 1) 2
𝑉(𝑌̂𝑠𝑦 ) = ∑(𝑦̅𝑖 − 𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 )
𝑘𝑚(𝑚 − 1)
𝑖=1

(300)2 (10 − 1)
𝑉(𝑌̂𝑠𝑦 ) = [(10.055 − 9.83)2 + (9.755 − 9.83)2 + (9.68 − 9.83)2 ]
10𝑥3𝑥2
= 1063.125

8.6. Population with Linear Trend and Periodicity

a) Linear Trend

Suppose a population consists of linear trend that could be expressed in the form of yi=i. That is,
y1=1, y2=2, y3=3, . . . , yi=i, . . ., yN= N, for population of size N.
𝑁(𝑁+1) 𝑁(𝑁+1)(2𝑁+1)
∑𝑁 𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 = ∑𝑖=1 𝑖 = ,∑𝑁 2 𝑁 2
𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 = ∑𝑖=1 𝑖 =
2 6

1 1 1 𝑁(𝑁+1)(2𝑁+1) 1 𝑁(𝑁+1) 2
V(y)=𝑆 2 = 𝑁−1 (∑𝑁 2 𝑁 2
𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑁 (∑𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 ) ) = 𝑁−1 ( −𝑁( ) )
6 2

𝑁(𝑁+1)
𝑆 2= 12

Substitute this value into the V(𝑦̅) gives

𝑆 2 𝑁−𝑛 (𝑘−1)(𝑁+1) (𝑘−1)(𝑛𝑘+1)

V(𝑦̅)= 𝑛 = =
𝑁 12 12

Similarly, the means of systematic samples, 𝑦̅𝑗 , is in increasing order starting from 1, and with
value of 1 unit apart from each other. That is 𝑦̅1 = 1, 𝑦̅2 = 2, … , 𝑦̅𝑗 =j, for j=1, 2, . . ., k and for k
possible systematic samples.
1 2
V (𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 ) =𝑘 ∑𝑘𝑗=1(𝑦̅𝑗 − 𝑌̅)

1 1 2 1 𝑘(𝑘+1)(2𝑘+1) 1 𝑘(𝑘+1) 2 𝐾2 −1
V (𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 ) = (∑𝑘𝑗=1 𝑦̅𝑗2 − (∑𝑘𝑗=1 𝑦̅𝑗 ) ) = ( − ( ) )=
𝑘−1 𝑘 𝑘 6 𝑘 2 12

𝐾2 −1 (𝑘−1)(𝑛𝑘+1)
V (𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 ) ≤V(𝑦̅) if and only if ≤ . If n=1, they are equal, otherwise systematic
12 12
sample is much more effective.

b) Periodicity:

Sampling Theory | Chapter EIGHT | Systematic Sampling 6

 It is an arrangement or occurrence of elements of population in certain pattern in a list or in a
natural record, so that a value at a certain interval repeats itself or repeats in an integral multiple
values. Consider an artificial example consisting of 12 students in a given class with their academic
performance graded as A, B C, and D. supposes that the grade is listed according to A B C D A B
C D A B C D. A sample of three students was taken from the list to assess their performance. Since
k=N/n=12/3=4, we can take systematic sample 1 in 4 from the list. There are four possible samples,
i.e., when j=1, 2, 3, 4.

j=1 value j=2 value j=3 value j=4 value

1 A 2 B 3 C 4 D
5 A 6 B 7 C 8 D
9 A 10 B 11 C 12 D
This shows that all students with similar performance are selected in one sample, providing large
differences between the sample means. In this situation ƿw is very high which implies low precision
and can be calculated if grades are converted to numeric values. To overcome these periodicity
problems, you must arrange the grade in increasing order before sample selection is carried out.

8.7. Advantages and Disadvantages of Systematic Sampling

Systematic sampling has the following advantage over simple random sampling.
 It is easy and simple to apply; the sample easier to draw since one random number is required;
costs may be lower per unit to sample.
 From operational point of view, it is a convenient method for the selection sampling units in the
field and can easily be taught to individuals who have little training in survey methodology. It
also allows easy checking of the selection.
 Systematic sampling tends to distribute the sample over the listed population in a more evenly
way.
 Higher precision is often associated systematic sampling, especially if the arrangement of the
units in the list is related to the characteristics of interest. It has an effect similar to stratification
and is often called “implicit stratification”.
 It provides more efficient estimates of population mean or total in comparison to simple random
sample for populations with linear trend.
Disadvantage:
 A serious disadvantage of this method lies in its use with populations having unforeseen
periodicity, which may substantially, contribute to the bias in the estimate of mean or total. In
this case ƿw>0, and for large N, V (𝑦̅𝑠𝑦 )>V (𝑦̅𝑠𝑅𝑠 ).

Sampling Theory | Chapter EIGHT | Systematic Sampling 7