Name of Scholar : Vinita Jaiman

Title of the Research Work :

IMPACT OF VARIABLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD

SECURITY IN WESTERN RAJASTHAN :
(A CASE STUDY OF JODHPUR DISTRICT)
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 Agriculture typically plays a larger role in developing economies than in the
developed world. For example, agriculture in India makes up roughly 20% of GDP
and provides nearly 52% of employment (as compared to 1% of GDP and 2% of
employment for the US), with the majority of agricultural workers drawn from
proper segments of the population (FAO, 2006). Furthermore, it is reasonable to
expect that farmers in developing countries may be less able to adapt to climate
change due to credit constraints or less access to adaptation technology. However,
the majority of the literature on the impact of climate change has focused on
developed countries, in particular the US, presumably for reason of data availability.
Most research in developing countries has followed the production function
approach, finding alarmingly large possible impacts (Cruz et al, 2007). A true
Ricardian study world be difficult to carry out in a developing country context,
because land markets are less likely to be well-functioning and data on land prices
are not generally available. Instead, a semi-Ricardian approach has used data on
average profits instead-the idea is that the land price, if it were available, would just
be the present discounted value of profits. The major developing country semi-
Ricardian studies, of India and Brazil, found significant negative effects, with a
moderate climate change scenario (an increase of 2.0 0 C in mean temperature and
seven percent increase in precipitation) leading to losses on the order of 10% of
agricultural profits (Sanghi et. al., 1998b, 1997).
This study applies the panel data approach to food security in Rajasthan,
using a panel of Jodhpur district covering 1960-1991. The basic estimation strategy,
following Deschenes and Greenstone (2007), is to regress yearly district-level
agricultural outcomes (in this case, yields) on yearly climate measures (temperature
and precipitation) and district fixed effects. The resulting weather parameter
estimates, then, are identified from district-specific deviations in yearly weather
from the district mean climate. since year-to-year fluctuations in the weather are
essentially random and therefore independent of other, unobserved determinants of
agricultural outcomes, these panel estimates should be free of the omitted variables
problems associated with the hedonic approach. The use of district-level data is
important to obtain adequate within-year climate variation, thereby distinguishing
climate impacts from other national-level yearly shocks. I also include smooth
regional time trends so that the effect of a slowly warming climate over the second
half of the twentieth century is not confounded with improvements in agricultural
productivity over the same period. The predicted mean impact of climate change is
then calculated as a linear combination of the estimated weather parameters and
the predicted changes in climate.
The purpose of this review is to provide a critical overview of the now
extensive literature on the tightly coupled relationship between climate change and
food systems. In particular, it seeks to draw attention to wider issues of food
systems beyond food production, to highlight the distribution of climate-related
impacts on food security across sectors of global society, and to set out the
opportunities and challenges in food systems for integrating the options for
mitigation, adaptation, and food security.
The drivers and patterns of observed and predicted climate change are well
reviewed (9). A useful distinction can be drawn between long-term (decadal) trends
and near-term increases in variability in climate (10), though the same radiative
forcing drives both. In the absence of complete mitigation, society needs, in the long
term, to adapt to gradual changes in the means and distributions of temperatures
and precipitation. Depending on the speed and direction of these trends,
incremental or transformative adaptation is needed (10). Most immediately, climate
change is being experienced as increasing temporal and spatial variability in
temperature, precipitation, and winds, particularly the incidence and magnitude of
extreme events. The types of extreme events that are likely to increase include the
frequency and intensity of heat waves, frequency of heavy precipitation events and
associated floods, intensity of tropical cyclone events, and incidence of extremely
high sea levels owing to storm surges. Longer dry spells in some areas, and the area
affected by drought each year, are likely to increase. Other types of extreme events,
such as cold spells and frosts, will decrease in frequency and intensity (9). In the
short term, therefore, increasing climate variability has more impact than longer-
term change in mean values, and the appropriate focus of adaptation is climate risk
management (11). The need for this focus will continue even though the need to
address changes in mean values over the longer term will increase.
IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

The importance of the research is limited to identification and profiling of

research institution working on climate change and food security in Rajasthan. The
study does not discuss the science of climate change and food security as this
subject is better address elsewhere by the social group of the area.
All four dimensions of food security namely the availability, accessibility, utilization
and system stability are affected by climate change. Assessment of the impact of
climate change on the food and agriculture sector have focused on the availability
aspect namely crop failure and decline in the crop yields. The accessibility and the
utilization aspect of food security depend on the socio-cultural condition including
affordability, food preferences, nutritional value. For a populous country like India
which is affected by climate change in many ways the threats to food security
multidimensional. A holistic analysis of the food systems along with study of the
policies of the state to address the issue will be carried out

AREA OF THE STUDY

The state of Rajasthan situated in the western part of India, faces severe
water scarcity, has poor rainfall and is classified as arid/semi-arid region.
Administratively, the state comprises of 33 districts, 39753 inhabited village 249
Panchayat Samities and 9168 Gram Panchayats. Geographically deserts in the state
constitute a large share of landmass. The total population of the state is about 56.5
million. The population density of the state is 165 per sq. km. and it varies from as
low as 13 per sq. km. in Jaisalmer district to as high as 471 per sq.km.

OBJECTIVES
The objective of this research is to provide a preliminary assessment of the
impacts of climate change on food security in western region examining the scope of
the issue in this region, comparing it with experiences in other vulnerable regions
and providing a baseline for action. The information gathered in the study
(research) will provide the background for a action plan on food security proposed
for 2012-2014, which will bring together different interests in the field of food
security to examine the issue in greater detail with the aim of identifying action to
help communities and government respond to the effects of climate change on food
security. The main objectives of this research study are as under :
(1) To identify the impact of climate change on natural resources availability in
area.
(2) To assess the impact of climate change on food security, livelihood and
poverty.
(3) To propose adaptation and eco system resilience strategies including natural
resources management and crop improvement.
(4) To examine policy options and institutional set up to ensure enabling
environments to cope with climate change impacts.

HYPOTHESIS
The research aims to find out the following two questions regarding the
current state of food security in the western Rajasthan. These hypothesis may also
provide the basis for western Rajasthan food security study.

(1) Impact of variables of climate change has affected already stressed

environments imparted social, geographical, demographic and migration
patterns and its concomitant response planning and has affected the people
themselves, their cultivated land, livestock, social groups and food security.
(2) There is a gap between social group demands, stakeholders and
governmental intervention to identify the basic need of food security

METHODOLOGY
The research study broadly contained the following steps.
(1) Participatory research approach :- The participatory research approach
emerged in the field of development studies. These approaches are also called
Participatory Rural Appraisal. This approach involve local people actively
participating in the planning, monitoring and evaluation of development
programme.
(2) Household survey :- As household survey can be perceived as “links” between
individual perspectives and actions, and regional or even national structures,
they are the ideal targets of the HH survey. The HH survey includes precise
 questions about different topics, in this case about rainfall, food security and
migration. Interviewers and interviewees meet in a face-to-face situation.
(3) Expert Interviews :- Interviews of this type are held with different experts.
Those at the national level as well as the local and district levels.
(4) Field visit- To understand the perception of the local community and their
cultural practices in order to suggest programmatically feasible ‘No regret’
adaptation strategies field visit will conducted to selected district, collecting
secondary data on climate data/food production etc. and analysis and
conducting stakeholders workshops to discuss and finalize results. Study
scoping through village visits and stakeholder discussion. Developing field
testing, and finalizing survey instruments. Conducting actual surveys and
participating expenditure tracking.
(5) Statistical method- Mean, mode, medium, Co-relation, SD (Standard
Deviation), regression, t-test, f-test, climate variability, rainfall trend analysis,
uncertainties etc.
(6) Map, Diagrams, Photographs & other analytical methods.

Food security is a vast and complete topic, standing at the intersection

of many disciplines. This research will briefly touch upon the myriad of
influencing factors, examining the impacts of climate change on food security
in the western Rajasthan and how it compares to other global regions, and
consider options for maintaining food security.