Did The Countrywide Lockdown Act Like A Catalyst in Turning A Cyclone To A Super Cyclone AMPHAN?
Did The Countrywide Lockdown Act Like A Catalyst in Turning A Cyclone To A Super Cyclone AMPHAN?
Did The Countrywide Lockdown Act Like A Catalyst in Turning A Cyclone To A Super Cyclone AMPHAN?
(2022) 30:707–714
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-022-00462-5
Received: 4 December 2021 / Revised: 21 June 2022 / Accepted: 21 June 2022 / Published online: 26 July 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Korean Spatial Information Society 2022
Abstract Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and countrywide Tropical cyclone primarily originates over the tropical ocean
lockdown, the super-cyclone Amphan collided with the east- area and is driven by the heat transfer from the ocean [2].
ern coast of India, majorly affecting the Indian state of West The formation of tropical cyclone is due to the disturbance
Bengal. The lockdown restricted the industrial emissions of occurring near the centre of a precursor disturbance in which
greenhouse gases known for increasing the average global the inner stability is high and flow is in near solid body
temperature, however the sea-surface temperature (SST) rotation.
profile over the Bay of Bengal indicated higher than average A typical tropical cyclone could be characterized by hav-
SST values in preceding 5 years. The unexpected increase ing a low-pressure centre with low level of atmospheric cir-
in sea-surface temperature might have played a major role culation, accompanied by rapidly rotating strong wind and
in formation cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal, spirally arranged thunderstorm that produce heavy rain or
which might have triggered the formation of super cyclone squalls. The study of the intensity of the cyclones are of par-
Amphan. The anomalous increase in average SST could amount importance as it decides the area and number of peo-
be attributed to the sudden lowering of particulate matter ple getting affected upon its impact on the coast. Many con-
concentration due to the lockdown, which resulted in the cerns are raised on the probable impact of global warming
increase in levels of solar insolation on the sea-surface due on the intensity of cyclones [3]. The cyclones form over the
to the absence of particulate matter load, which reflects/ oceans when the sea-surface temperature exceeds the thresh-
absorbs the incoming solar radiation to the surface keeping old temperature of 25.5 °C below which the cyclone does not
the sea-surface temperature at lower levels. form [4]. With an upsurge of about 1 °C in tropical ocean
surface temperature, the wind speed of the cyclone theo-
Keywords Cyclone Amphan · Pandemic · Lockdown · retically increases by ~ 5% [5]. Satheesh and Ramanathan
Criteria Pollutants · Super-cyclone [6] estimated that the presence of aerosols over the Indian
Ocean surge the top of atmosphere has reflected radiation by
~ 10 W m−2, which result in the decrease of surface’s reach-
1 Introduction ing radiation by ~ 29 W m−2. The decrease in the aerosol
concentration due to the effect of pandemic have resulted
The origin of tropical cyclones is one of the unexplained in more solar radiation reaching the surface of ocean which
phenomena in dynamical metrology and climate [1, 2]. in turn triggered the ocean surface temperature to increase
significantly. Sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind
shear and humidity are the driving factors that trigger and
* Surajit Mondal
surajitmondalee@gmail.com enhance the formation of tropical cyclones [7]. The weaker
1 wind movement over the BoB results in a sluggish oceanic
Power System Operation Corporation Ltd., New Delhi, India
2
circulation that keep the SST relatively higher which aids in
Sustainability Cluster, UPES, Dehradun, India
the formation of cyclone easily [8]. In addition, higher pre-
3
School of Allied Health Sciences, UPES, Dehradun, India cipitation and constant inflow of fresh water from the Indian
4
Electrical Cluster, UPES, Dehradun, India rivers of the Ganges and the Brahmaputra results in strong
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708 A. K. Chowdhury et al.
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Did the countrywide lockdown act like a catalyst in turning a cyclone to a super‑cyclone AMPHAN? 709
Additionally, the concentration levels of particulate matter surface. The figure also shows the concentration of sea-sur-
(PM2.5 and PM10) were also recorded over the defined study face temperatures during the months of May for the years
area, which were taken from the https://e arth.n ullsc hool.n et. 2016–2019 which clearly are of lesser values as compared
A similar study by Zhao et al. [11] stated that the cyclone to the higher values of SST during May 2020.
“Fani” could have intensified to a super-cyclonic category A similar cyclone “Fani” (April–May 2019; 249.45 kmph;
only if such large-scale lockdown were imposed during that 932 hPa) that formed in the same region over the BoB could
period. The cyclone ‘Fani’ occurred during April–May 2019 have intensified easily to super-cyclone (SuCS) if only such
(249.45 kmph; 932 hPa) over the same region of Bay of a large scale lockdown were imposed in the year 2019 [11].
Bengal.
3.1 Relationship between SuCS Amphan and lockdown
3 Result and discussion Apart from the natural factors as mentioned above, the
countrywide lockdown in India might have had an indirect
This study illustrates the monthly averaged sea-surface tem- impact on the formation of SuCS Amphan by increasing
perature conditions over the Bay of Bengal (16.5° N–21.5° the average sea surface temperature as seen from Table 3.
N and 87.5° E–92.5° E) for the year 2020 with past 5 years The lockdown had rendered the atmosphere over the Indian
data over same latitudes and longitudes for a detailed com- sub-continent and the neighbouring ocean relatively clean
parison between the cyclonic disturbance and associated [15]. The depressions over the BoB are natural phenomenon
formations. Table 2 lists different cyclones that originated but the countrywide lockdown might have driven the trans-
in the past 5 years during the months of April–May. The formation of Amphan into a super cyclone by changing the
sea-surface temperature profile of BoB during the years radiative budget of earth surface. Due to the closure of the
2016–2020 for the month of May is given in Table 3. It industries, factories and transportation, the inflow of particu-
is clear from the table below that the sea-surface tempera- late matter concentration load over the BoB reduced dras-
ture during May 2020 as compared to the preceding years tically [16–19]. Particulate matters such as black carbons
of 2016–2019. The data provided in the table shows that (BC) are those aerosols which have the ability of absorbing
the temperature profile of sea-surface during May 2020 heat from Sunlight there by reducing the heating of the sea
is similar to that of May 2016. During the year 2016, the surface water [20]. Decreased amounts of particulate matters
CS Roanu (~ 85 kmph) had hit the coasts of Sri Lanka and can be seen in Figs. 3a and c, which might have triggered the
Bangladesh. The mean recorded SST during May 2016 was increase of the average sea surface temperature due to the
30.2 °C (highest 31.65 °C; lowest 29.32 °C) while the mean direct absorption of heat from the sunlight.
recorded SST for May 2020 was 30.3 °C (highest 31.5 °C; Figure 3 depicts the preconditions of particulate matters
lowest 28.74 °C). Despite such similarities in the sea-surface (PM2.5 and PM10) along with sea-surface temperature and
temperature, the CS Roanu’s impact was limited and not SST anomaly over the Bay of Bengal on the day of origin
much severe as compared to the CuCS Amphan. The mean of a depression (D) and simultaneously transforming into
sea-surface temperature for the years 2017, 2018 and 2019 a cyclonic storm (CS) which later escalated into a super
remained below 30 °C during the months of May and hence cyclonic storm (SuCS) Amphan.
no significant cyclones of higher intensity were recorded. It is a well-known fact that the particulate matter which
From Fig. 2, it is quite evident that the sea-surface tem- gets dissolved in water is known to have an impact on forma-
perature indeed increased during the month of May, 2020 tion of clouds [22]. Under normal conditions a lot of par-
which might have resulted into the transformation of the ticulate matter gets transported from Indo-Gangetic plain to
SuCS from a normal depression being formed on the ocean the Bay of Bengal [23]. During regular conditions greater
Table 2 Pre-monsoon tropical cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal during the months of April–May in past years (2016–2019)
Year of origin Cyclone name Date of formation–date of dissipation Highest Areas affected References
wind speed
reported
2016 Roanu 19 May 2016–23 May 2016 86.4 kmph Sri Lanka, Eastern coast of India, Bangla- [12]
desh
2017 Mora 28 May 2017–31 May 2017 114 kmph Bangladesh, North-eastern India, Myanmar [13]
2018 – – – – –
2019 Fani 26 April 2019–5 May 2019 175 kmph Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, [14]
Bangladesh
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Did the countrywide lockdown act like a catalyst in turning a cyclone to a super‑cyclone AMPHAN? 711
Fig. 2 Variation in sea-surface temperature for the months of May during past 5 years
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712 A. K. Chowdhury et al.
Fig. 3 Particulate matters and sea surface temperature during the with prior permission [21]; a and c "Generated using Copernicus
super-cyclone: a PM2.5; b SST; c PM10; d SST Anomaly on the day Atmosphere Monitoring Service Information (2020)”; b and d "UK
SuCS formation took place over the Bay of Bengal on 16th May 2020 Met Office. 2005. OSTIA L4 SST Analysis. Ver. 1.0"
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