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MODULE Title :
Problem Statement:
The module's goal is to predict customer churn for a telecommunications company
using machine learning techniques. It achieves this through the following steps:
1. Data Preparation:
- Encode categorical features and handle missing data.
- Split data into training and testing sets.
2. Artificial Neural Network (ANN):
- Build an ANN model to predict churn.
- Train and evaluate the model on the data.
3. Support Vector Machine (SVM):
- Construct SVM models for churn prediction.
- Evaluate SVM performance using accuracy, confusion matrices, and
classification reports.
4. Principal Component Analysis (PCA):
- Apply PCA for dimensionality reduction.
- Train and assess an SVM model on the reduced data.
The module's purpose is to develop and assess various models for accurate
customer churn prediction in the telecommunications context.
Dataset:
The dataset used for this analysis is related to customer churn in a
telecommunications company. It contains information about various customers and
their interactions with the company's services. The dataset is sourced from a CSV
file named 'telco.csv'. The dataset has the following characteristics:
- Number of Rows: 7044

- Number of Columns: 21
- File Size: 955 KB
Features included in the dataset:

1. customerID
2. gender
3. SeniorCitizen
4. Partner
5. Dependents
6. tenure
7. PhoneService
8. MultipleLines
9. InternetService
10. OnlineSecurity
11. OnlineBackup
12. DeviceProtection
13. TechSupport
14. StreamingTV
15. StreamingMovies
16. Contract
17. PaperlessBilling
18. PaymentMethod
19. MonthlyCharges
20. TotalCharges
21. Churn
Preprocessing Steps:
- Categorical features are encoded using label encoding to convert them into
numerical values.
- The 'TotalCharges' column is converted to numeric values, and missing values
are handled by dropping corresponding rows.
- The dataset is split into training and testing sets for model evaluation.
Methodology:
For this churn prediction analysis, we'll employ two advanced machine learning
architectures: an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) models. Here's a breakdown of their structures and components:

- The ANN is designed to capture complex relationships within the dataset for
churn prediction.
- Input Layer:The input layer's dimensions match the number of features in the
dataset.
- Dense Layers:We use two hidden dense layers for feature transformation and
representation.
- Each dense layer has 64 and 32 units, respectively.
- Leaky ReLU activation function with an alpha of 0.3 is applied to introduce
non-linearity.
- Dropout Layers:To prevent overfitting, dropout layers with a dropout rate of 0.3
follow each dense layer.
- Output Layer:The output layer has a single unit with a sigmoid activation
function for binary classification (churn prediction).
- Compilation:The model is compiled using binary cross-entropy loss and 'adam'
optimizer.
- Training: The model is trained on the training data for 30 epochs with a batch
size of 32.
2. Support Vector Machine (SVM):
- We implement two SVM models: one with a linear kernel and another with
PCA for dimensionality reduction.
- Linear Kernel SVM:
- A linear kernel SVM is trained on the scaled training data.
- It's used for churn prediction and evaluation.
- SVM with PCA:
- PCA is applied to reduce the dataset's dimensionality before training the SVM
model.
- The reduced-dimension data is used for churn prediction and evaluation.
Both models are evaluated using accuracy, confusion matrices, and classification
reports on the testing data to assess their performance in predicting customer
churn.
The ANN leverages its multi-layer architecture to learn intricate patterns in the
data, while SVMs, both linear and PCA-enhanced, focus on effective separation of
churn and non-churn instances in the dataset. This combination of models aims to
provide a comprehensive view of the data and improve churn prediction accuracy.
Model Training:
The training process for the advanced machine learning models involves fine-
tuning the model architectures and hyperparameters to achieve accurate churn
prediction. Here's how the training is conducted for both the Artificial Neural
Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models:

 Optimization Algorithm: The ANN is trained using the 'adam' optimizer,
which adapts the learning rate for each parameter during training.
 Hyperparameters:
 The number of hidden units in dense layers is set to 64 and 32 units
respectively.
 The LeakyReLU activation function with an alpha of 0.3 is chosen for
introducing non-linearity.
 Dropout layers with a dropout rate of 0.3 are inserted after each dense layer
to mitigate overfitting.
 Binary cross-entropy loss function is used for binary classification (churn
prediction).
 Regularization: Dropout layers serve as a form of regularization by
preventing overfitting during training.
 Epochs and Batch Size: The model is trained for 30 epochs with a batch size
of 32.
 Validation: Model performance is monitored using validation data during
training.
2.Support Vector Machine (SVM):

 Linear Kernel SVM:
No hyperparameter tuning is mentioned in the provided code.
 SVM with PCA:The
SVM with PCA uses Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality
reduction.
The number of components is set to 20 based on the dataset's original size.
Both models are trained on the scaled training data, with the SVM models focusing
on effective separation of churn and non-churn instances using a linear kernel and
PCA-transformed data. The ANN, on the other hand, learns complex patterns
within the data through its multi-layer architecture. Regularization techniques like
dropout help prevent overfitting in the ANN. The chosen hyperparameters and
optimization algorithms aim to strike a balance between model complexity and
generalization.
Evaluation Metrics:
To evaluate advanced machine learning models, we'll use:
- Accuracy: Measures correct predictions (churn or not) in test data, offering an
overall view of correctness.
- Confusion Matrix: Breaks predictions into true positive, true negative, false
positive, and false negative, revealing error types.
- Classification Report: Summarizes precision, recall, F1-score for churn and
non-churn. Precision prevents false alarms, recall identifies churn, and F1-score
balances overall performance.
Results and Analysis:

The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model achieved a test accuracy of
approximately 78.89% with a test loss of 0.4354 after 30 epochs of training. This
performance indicates the model's capability to predict customer churn using the
provided dataset. Further investigation could delve into feature significance and
potential avenues for optimizing accuracy and loss metrics.
Discussion:
Strengths:
- The ANN model achieved a test accuracy of approximately 78.89%,
demonstrating its capability to predict customer churn.
- The inclusion of SVM models and PCA provides a comparative analysis,
enriching the evaluation process.
Weaknesses:
- The accuracy could be further improved with more extensive hyperparameter
tuning and possibly exploring more complex model architectures.
- Addressing class imbalance could enhance the model's sensitivity to predicting
churn instances.
Challenges:
- Handling class imbalance and optimizing hyperparameters effectively were
challenges in model training.
- Balancing the trade-off between model complexity and generalization required
careful consideration.
Improvement Avenues:
- Implementing techniques like oversampling or undersampling to address class
imbalance could improve model performance.
- Exploring ensemble methods or incorporating additional features may enhance
prediction accuracy further.
Conclusion:
The project successfully utilized Advanced Machine Learning techniques,
including ANN and SVM models, to predict customer churn in a
telecommunications company. The ANN model achieved a 78.89% test accuracy,
showcasing its efficacy in solving the problem. Future directions could involve
ensemble methods, fine-tuning hyperparameters, and exploring feature engineering
to enhance predictive capabilities and support more informed business decisions.
References:
 Keras Documentation
 Scikit-Learn Documentation
 Towards Data Science: An Introduction to Support Vector Machines (SVM)
 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Explained
 Python Data Science Handbook
 Understanding Neural Networks
These resources provided valuable insights and guidance throughout the project.

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MODULE Title :

- Number of Rows: 7044

Features included in the dataset:

1. Artificial Neural Network (ANN):

1. Artificial Neural Network (ANN):

2.Support Vector Machine (SVM):

Results and Analysis:

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