Module -2

Traffic Surveys
Traffic Surveys- Speed, journey time and delay surveys, Vehicles Volume Survey including
non-motorized transports, Methods and interpretation, Origin Destination Survey, Methods
and presentation, Parking Survey, Accident analysis-Methods, interpretation and
presentation, Statistical applications in traffic studies and traffic forecasting, Level of service-
Concept, applications and significance. 8 hours
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Traffic Surveys
The various traffic engineering surveys are:
1) Traffic volume study
2) Origin and Destination (O and D) study
3) Parking study
4) Accident studies or traffic flop
5) Speed studies
a) Spot speed study
b) Speed and delay study
6) Traffic flow characteristics
7) Traffic capacity study

VEHICLES VOLUME SURVEY

Traffic Volume
It is the number of vehicles crossing or passing a section of road per unit time at any
selected period. It is generally expressed as number of vehicles per day or number of vehicles
per hour.
Objects and Uses of Traffic Volume Studies
1) Traffic volume is generally accepted as a true measure of the relative importance of roads
and in deciding the priority for improvement and expansion.
2) Traffic volume study is used in planning, traffic operation and control of existing facilities
and also for planning and designing the new facilities.
3) This study is used in the analysis of traffic patterns and trends.
4) Classified volume study is useful in structural design of pavements, in geometric design
and in computing roadway capacity.
5) Volume distribution study is used in planning one-way streets and other regulatory
measures.
6) Turning movements study is used in the design of intersections, in planning signal timings,
channelization and other control devices.
7) Pedestrian traffic volume study is used for planning sidewalks, cross walks, subways and
pedestrian signals.
By conducting traffic volume studies following details are obtained:
1) Direction and volume of traffic.
2) Hourly, daily, yearly and seasonal traffic volume variations.
3) Proportion of cars, heavy and slow vehicles on roads.
4) Variation of vehicle flow on different parts of the road system.

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Objectives

1) To establish relative importance of any route or road facility.

2) To plan one-way streets and other regulatory measures.
3) To analyse the traffic patterns and trends.
4) For economic studies.
5) To plan and design new streets and facilities.
6) For research, regulation of traffic.
7) To design intersections, in planning signal cycles, for channelization and for controlled
devices
8) To plan sidewalks, cross walks, subways and pedestrian signals
9) To establish priorities and schedules of traffic improvements.
10) To measure and establish trends in traffic volume.

Methods of Traffic Volume Studies

1) Manual counts/methods
2) Mechanical counts/methods
These include:
a) Pneumatic counter
b) Photoelectric cells
c) Radar detector
d) Ultrasonic device
e) Magnetic detector
f) Infrared device, etc
Manual Counts

This method employs a field team to record traffic volume on the prescribed record
sheets. By this method it is possible to obtain data which can not be collected by mechanical
counters, such as vehicle classification, turning movements and counts where the loading
conditions or number of occupants are required.

Mechanical Counters

These may be either fixed (permanent) type or portable type. The mechanical counter
can automatically record the total number of vehicles crossing a section of the road in a
desired period. The working may be by the effect of impulses or stimuli caused by traffic
movements on a pneumatic hose placed across the roadway or by using any other type of
senor. Traffic count is recorded by electrically operated counters and recorders capable of
recording the impulses. The impulses caused by vehicles of light weight may not be enough
in some cases to actuate the counter. Also it is not possible to easily record pedestrian traffic
by this method.

Advantages of Manual Methods

1) These are simple and quick

2) These are flexible and no requirement of setting up of instruments at field or special skills

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3) Turning movements and direction of movements are recorded
4) Traffic classification is cheaper for specific purpose and for short counts
5) These are mainly suitable for short term and non-continuous counts.
6) Data collected gives information about break-down of traffic in each direction
7) In rural areas, this is more suitable due to vandalism
8) In developing and under developed countries sophisticated automatic devices are not
available.
Disadvantages of Manual Methods
1) For longer counts these are expensive.
2) It is unsuitable in bad weather condition
3) Mainly depends on accuracy and efficiency of the observer
4) It is very difficult to conduct manual counts for 24hours in a day for all 365 days
Advantages of Mechanical Methods
1) This can be used in all weather conditions and at all times
2) If maintained properly these gives accurate information
3) It gives punched data which is easy to analyse by computers
4) For long duration counts these are cheaper
5) Where continuous and regular flow of traffic is these are widely used, in developed
countries and in remote areas.
Disadvantages of Mechanical Methods
1) Need of trained and skilled operator/personnel
2) Not possible to do classified counts
3) Costly equipments requires proper maintenance and safety
4) Costly equipments therefore not advisable for shorter duration counts

PEDESTRIAN VOLUME STUDIES

Objects
1) To minimise the vehicular delay
2) To plan and design traffic control devices
3) To increase safety of pedestrians
4) To provide a design which minimises pedestrian-vehicle conflicts
5) To find the utility of sidewalks.
6) To properly design signal timings at intersections.
Interpretation/Presentation of Traffic Volume Data Collected
The data collected in various traffic volume studies is recorded are presented in the
following ways:
1) Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT or ADT)

AADT of the total traffic as well as classified traffic are calculated. This helps in deciding
the relative importance of a route and in phasing the road development programme.

2) Traffic Flow Maps

Traffic flow maps along the routes, (the thickness of the lines representing the traffic
volume to any desired scale), are drawn. These help to find the traffic volume distribution at a
glance.

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3) Trends Charts

These charts shows the volume trends over period of years are prepared. These data are
useful for planning future expansion, design and regulation.

4) Variation Charts
These shows hourly, daily and seasonal variations are also prepared. These help in
deciding the facilities and regulation needed during peak traffic periods.

5) Volume Flow Diagram

Volume flow diagram at intersections either drawn to a certain scale or indicating traffic
volume, thus showing the details of crossing and turning traffic. These data are needed for
intersection design.

6) Thirtieth Highest Hourly Volume/ Design Hourly Volume

It is found from the plot between hourly volume and the number of hours in an year that
the traffic volume is exceeded. The 30th highest hourly volume is the hourly volume that will
be exceeded only 29 times in a year and all other hourly volumes of the year will be less than
this value. The highest or peak hourly volume of the year will be too high that it will not be
economical to design the facilities according to this volume. The annual average hourly
volume (AAHV) found from AADT will not be sufficient during considerable period of a
year. The high facilities designed with capacity for 30 th highest hourly traffic volume in the
assumed year is found to be satisfactory from both facility and economic considerations. This
is because the cost will be less when compared to the peak hourly volume and hence
reasonable. There will be congestion only during 29hours in the year. Thus the 30 th highest
hourly volume is generally taken as the hourly volume for design. However the actual design
hourly volume may be decided after carrying out traffic volume studies on the desired
location of the road. The design hourly volume thus arrived at need not necessarily be the 30 th
highest hourly volume in all the cases.

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Passenger Car Unit (PCU)
In British practice it is usual to express capacity in terms of (PCU). This system is
also being followed in India. The basic consideration behind this practice is that different
types of vehicles offer different degrees of interference to other traffic and it is necessary to
bring all types to a common unit. This common unit adopted is known as PCU.
The PCU of vehicle type depends upon:
a) Size and speed of the vehicle
b) Type and kind of road environment [Ex: rural road, urban street, traffic signal]
It is generally not dependent on:
a) Flow
b) Road width
The factors controlling PCU are:
a) Speed, acceleration, braking characteristics
b) Spacing of vehicles, clearness
c) Composition of traffic stream
d) Road geometrics
e) Traffic regulations
f) Environmental conditions

PCU Equivalents as per Indian Practice

Sl. No. Vehicle Type PCU Equivalency Factor
1 Motor cycle or scooter 0.50
2 Passenger car, van, auto-rickshaw 1.00
3 Agricultural tractor, LCV 1.50
4 Truck or bus 3.00
Truck trailer, agricultural tractor-
5 4.50
Trailer
6 Cycle 0.50
7 Cycle rickshaw 2.00
8 Hand cart 3.00
9 Horse-drawn vehicle 4.00
10 Bullock cart 8.00*
*For smaller bullock carts, a value of 6 will be appropriate

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ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY
Origin: Place where trip begins
Destination: Place where trip ends.
Need for O-D Survey
It is necessary to know the exact origin and destination of the trips, how many trips
are made and also to group these trips with reference to the zones of their O and D.

Other information yielded by the O-D survey are:

a) Land use of the zones of O and D.

b) Household characteristics of the trip making family
c) Time of the day when the journeys are made
d) Trip purpose
e) Mode of travel

Specific Uses

a) To determine the amount of by-passable traffic that enters a town, and thus establish the
need for a by-pass.
b) To develop trip generation and trip distribution models in transport planning process.
c) To determine the extent to which the present highway system is adequate and to plan for
new facilities.
d) To assess the adequacy of parking facilities and to plan for future.
If the survey is needed for urban transportation planning process for a large town. It is
necessary to define the study area and sub-divide it into zones.
In the study of transportation problems of towns (big or small) it is necessary to define the
external cordon lines.
In big towns, it may be necessary to select some internal cordon lines, which may be
concentric rings arranged in a grid pattern.
For checking the accuracy of survey data, it may be necessary to have screen-lines, which
are imaginary lines dividing the area into parts.
Methods of O-D Survey
Following are some of the methods available for conducting an O-D survey:
1) Home Interview Survey
a) Full Interview Technique
b) Home Questionnaire Technique
2) Road Side Interview Survey
3) Post Card Questionnaire Survey
4) Registration Number Plate Survey
5) Tags on Vehicles

1) Home Interview Survey

It is one of the most reliable types of surveys for collection of origin and destination
data. This survey is intended to yield data on the travel pattern of the residents of the house
hold and the general characteristics of the house hold influencing trip-making.

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 The information on travel pattern includes number of trips made, their origin and
destination, purpose of trip, travel mode, time of departure from origin and time of arrival at
destination and so on.
The information on household characteristics includes type of dwelling unit, no. of
residents, age, sex, race, vehicle ownership, no. of drivers, family income and so on.
Based on these data it is possible to relate the amount of travel to household and zonal
characteristics and develop equations for trip generation rates.
A number of techniques are available for the home-interview survey they are:
a) Full interview technique
b) Home questionnaire technique

Full interview technique involves interviewing as many members of the household as

possible and directly recording all the information, whereas in home questionnaire technique,
the interviewer collects only details of the household characteristics, leaving forms for
household residents to complete in regard to travel information. The completed forms are
collected after one day or two day by the interviewer.
The Full interview technique is more expensive and it may be possible to collect the
needed information only at the rate of 8 interviews per 8 hour day per interviewer. The home-
questionnaire technique is more speedy and it may be possible to cover about 20 households
per day.
Full interview technique yields very accurate data, the same cannot be said for the
home-questionnaire method.
The information collected from the home-interview survey is classified under two
groups:
a) Household information
b) Journey data
Household information contains information such as address, size of household, age
and sex structure of household, earning members, occupation, place of work, number of
motor vehicles owned, household income, etc.
Journey data contains information on all journeys made during the previous 24 hour
period, including the origin and destination of journeys, purpose of trip, mode of travel, etc.

2) Road Side Interview Survey

It is one of the methods of carrying out a screen-line or cordon- survey. The road side
interview survey can be done either by directly interviewing drivers of the vehicles at
selected survey points or by issuing prepaid cards containing the questionnaire to all the
drivers. The survey points are selected along the junction of the cordon-line or screen-line
with the roads. The cordons may be in the form of circular rings, radial lines of rectangular
grids. For small towns (population <5000), single circular cordon at the periphery of the town
should suffice. The internal travel being light, the external cordon survey in this case will
give the O-D data.

In case of medium sized cities (population range 5000-75,000). Two cordon lines are
necessary, the external cordon at the edge of the urban development and the internal cordon
at the limits of the central business district. Road side interviews at the intersection of roads

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with these two cordon lines should be able, to fairly assess the patterns of travel in such
cities.For large cities, the cordon lines and screen lines may be more complicated. The home-
interview technique cannot be dispensed. Cordon line and screen line surveys by the road
side interview technique serve to check the accuracy of the home interview survey data.

For dual carriageways or roads with very little traffic, traffic in both directions is dealt
simultaneously. In other cases the traffic in two directions will be interviewed at different
times.If the survey covers most of the day it may be sufficient to interview traffic in one
direction only and to assume that the journeys in the opposite direction are the same as in the
direction interviewed.
It is impractical to stop and interview all the vehicles. Hence sampling is necessary
which depends on the number of interviewers and traffic using the road.
3) Post Card Questionnaire Survey
In this method, reply paid questionnaires are handed over to each of the drivers at the
survey points and requesting them to complete the information and return by post. The
method avoids delay caused to the drivers by the direct roadside interview method but suffer
from the disadvantage that the response may not be good. It is possible to get a good amount
of information from this method. The method is simpler and cheaper than other methods.

4) Registration Number Plate Survey

This consists of noting the registration numbers of vehicles entering or leaving an area at
survey points located on the cordon line. By matching the registration numbers of vehicles at
the points of entry and exit from the area, one is enabled to identify two points on the paths of
the vehicle

5) Tags on Vehicles
In this method, at each point where the roads cross the cordon line, vehicles are stopped
and a tag is affixed, usually under a windscreen wiper.
The tags for different survey stations have different shapes and/or colour to identify the
survey station. The vehicles are stopped again at the exit points where the tags are removed.
The times of entering and leaving the area may be marked on the tags in order to enable the
journey times to be determined.

Checking the Accuracy of O-D Survey Data

The data obtained from the home-interview survey is usually cross checked with the
data obtained from screen-line and cordon counts.
Presentation of Results
O-D survey yields a vast amount of data. To understand them, it is necessary to
present them is convenient tabular or pictorial form.
a) Tabular Form:
O-D matrix is one of the tabular forms of representing the O-D survey data (in which the
origin zones and destination zones are represented. The horizontal axis of the matrix
represents the origin zones and the vertical axis of the matrix represents the destination zones.
The zones may be further classified into internal and external zones, if the survey covers both
the internal and external zones.

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 The number of trips is entered in the cells of the matrix.

DESTINATION ZONES
INTERNAL EXTERNAL
1 2 3 72 73 74
1
INTERNAL 2
3
ORIGIN ZONES

EXTERNAL

72
73
74
O-D Matrix
In the above matrix, t2-3 represents the number of trips originating in zone-2 and
terminating in zone-3.

b) Pictorial Representation:
Desire line chart is one of the most popular pictorial representations.

In this chart, the trip between any pair of zones are represented by a straight line
connecting the centroids of the two zones and having a band width drawn to a suitable scale
to represent the actual volume of trips.

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PARKING SURVEY

Purposes/Objectives

1) To find the characteristics of parking element.

2) To find supply and type of parking facilities both on-street and off-street.
3) To find out the demand for parking space.
4) To find out the legal, financial and administrative factors associated with parking
situations and the adequacy of existing enforcement measures.
5) To know how and for what purposes parking facilities are used including the parking
durations and illegal parking.
6) To locate parking generations.
7) To develop a parking program which meets with the requirements of that area.
Methods/ Types of Parking Surveys
Following the methods/ types of parking surveys:
1) Parking space inventory
2) Parking usage survey by patrol

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3) Questionnaire type parking usage survey
4) Cordon count
5) Photographic methods

1) Parking Space Inventory

The first step in a parking survey is to collect data on the amount, type and location of
space actually available for parking in an area. The area to be surveyed should be first be
delineated (defined). Usually central business district (CBD) is the area where parking survey
is needed. The area surrounding the CBD where the parking spills over should also be
included in the survey. The survey area is then sub-divided on a street-by-street basis and the
sub-divisions marked on a map. Sketch plans of the streets are then prepared in advance. The
data on parking facilities should be recorded on the sketch plan using suitable symbols. The
items to be recorded should include the following:

a) Total length of kerb and lengths governed by no waiting and limited waiting
restrictions.
b) Number of parking spaces provided on street.
c) Street width.
d) Location of bus stops, bus bays, pedestrian crossings, taxi stands, and other features
that are likely to affect the use of the street for parking.
e) Traffic management measures such as prohibited turns, one-way streets, exclusive bus
lanes, etc.
f) Number and type of traffic signs for regulation of parking.
g) Vacant or unused land suitable for temporary or permanent parking space.

2) Parking Usage Survey by Patrol

The purpose of this survey is to obtain data on the extent of usage of parking spaces.
The survey will include counts of parked vehicles at regular intervals through a period,
covering both the morning and evening peak period and the parking accumulation and turn-
over.

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 The survey can be for on-street and off-street parking. The general methodology for
both the surveys is similar, through minor details can be different.
The method consists of marking periodic observations of parked vehicles on each
patrol. For off-street observations the entire parking space can be patrolled or alternatively,
the entrances and exits may be observed continuously.

3) Questionnaire Type Parking Usage Survey

The Questionnaire type parking usage survey involves interviews with the drivers who use
the parking facilities. As a result, it is possible to collect information on the extent, to which
the existing facilities are being used, the parking requirements at the prices existing at the
time of the survey, parking demand at different prices, distribution of demand over area and
time and the journey purposes of car parkers.
Following are the information collected at the time of interview:
a) Address of origin of the trip.
b) Address of destination of the trip.
c) Trip purpose.
d) Time of arrival at the parking place.
e) Time of departure from the parking place.
f) Type of parking space and
g) Type of vehicle
4) Cordon Count
In this method, the area to be surveyed is demarcated by a cordon line which is crossed by
the roads emanating from the area. Counting stations are established at these crossing points
and a count is made of all the vehicles entering and leaving the area. The difference between
the two traffic gives the number of vehicles parked or in motion in the area. The counting can
be manual or automatic.

5) Photographic Method
Photographic methods are findings useful application in parking surveys. Its analysis can
be done conveniently in the office by replaying the cassette on a TV monitor.

Types of Parking Facilities

Following are the two types of parking facilities:
1) On-street parking
2) Off-street parking

1) On-Street Parking
Parking which is made on the road along with a kerb is known as “On-street parking”.
Common methods of on-street parking are:
a) Parallel parking
b) 30° angle parking
c) 45° angle parking
d) 60° angle parking
e) 90° angle parking or Right angle parking

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 Parallel parking consumes the maximum curb length which decreases as the angle of
parking increases. The minimum curb length is consumed by right angle parking, which
accommodates nearly two times the number of vehicles as parallel parking.
On the other hand, parallel parking makes the least use of the width of the street and this
is an important consideration in narrow streets. As the parking angle increases the width of
street used also increases.
From the point of view of manoeuvrability, angle parking seems to be better than parallel
parking which usually involves a backing motion. Delay to traffic is minimum with angle
parking.
As regards safety, it has been noticed that angle parking is more hazardous than parallel
parking.
Considering the above, it is recommended that in general parallel parking should be
favoured on streets. On exceptionally wide (wider than 20 m) and low volume streets,
consideration might be given for angle parking.
2) Off-Street Parking
Types of off-street parking are:

a) Surface car parks

b) Multi-storey car parks
c) Roof parks
d) Mechanical car parks
e) Underground car parks
a) Surface Car Parks
Surface Car Parks are located and developed on a piece of vacant land or surrounding
an office complex or super market.
Depending upon the area, a variety of layouts can be possible [Ex: 33 cars, 32 cars, 31
cars, 34 cars, 26 cars, 28 cars ...etc.]
If the surface park is to be operated with a fee-charging system, there should be
arrangement for collecting the money. This can be done either manually or by installing an
automatic ticket vending machine.
b) Multi-Storey Car Parks
Surface parks consume too much of the precious land in the heart of the city and are
not, therefore always feasible. One of the alternatives when land is costly is to provide multi-
storey car parks such facilities have become common and popular in many cities.
Multi-storey car parks are designed for a capacity of about 400 to 500 cars. Larger
capacity tends to increase the time for unparking a car.
About five floors is also the upper limit for the same
reason. Design standards of multi-storey car parks are:
 Gradient of the ramp: 1 in 10 generally and 1 in 8 for every short ramps
 Clear height between floors: 2.1 m
 Parking stall dimensions: 2.5 m X 5 m
 Inside radius of curves: 7 m
 Width of traffic lane on ramps and entrances: 3.75 m
 Gradient of sloping floors: not steeper than 1 in 20
 Loading standards: 400 kg/m2

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c) Roof Parks
It is one of the method of solving the parking problems adopted in many cities is to
park the vehicles on roof tops. Access ramp or mechanical lifts provide the necessary access
to the roofs. To economise, many roofs may be linked together served by a single access
ramp. In addition to the ramps, extra cost is involved in designing the roof tops and the
structural elements for the parking load.

d) Mechanical Car Parks

Mechanical Car Parks involves in lifting of the cars from floor to floor by means of a
lift and transfer of cars to and from the parking stall by means of wheeling or mechanically
operated transfer dollies or cradles. It is more economical when compared to roof parks
(ramped system) since it eliminates the use of ramps.
Disadvantages of this method are:
a) Higher maintenance costs
b) Possibility of breakdown due to mechanical or power failure.
e) Underground Car Parks
These parks can be built in the basement of any multi-storyed building or below open
spaces. Since the work involves large quantities of excavation, construction of retaining
walls, ventilation and lighting, such car parks tend to be very costly. These parks can be
single-storeyed or multi-storyed which latter tend to be very costly.
Peripheral Parking Schemes

Since the centre of the town is the worst hit by the parking problem, it is natural to
think in terms of providing parking facilities at the periphery of the town and induce the
motorists to park there and travel to the busy town centre by some other mode. There are a
number of schemes which have been devised to secure the desired objectives. They are:
a) Park and Walk
b) Park and Ride
c) Kiss and Ride
a) Park and Walk
Under this scheme the motorists are induced to park at the outskirts of the town and
walk down the town centre. The inducement is in the form of lower parking charges at the
periphery than at the town centre or no parking charges at all.
b) Park and Ride
This scheme provides for peripheral parking facilities and public transport side to the
destinations in the town centre. For success the total travel time including parking time,
waiting time at the bus stop and travel time by bus should not be excessively high to make
with disfavour and decide to bring the car to the town centre inspite of the high parking
charges there. Also, the cost of peripheral parking plus the charges for to and fro journey by
bus should be less than the cost of travel by his car plus the charges for parking at the town
centre.
c) Kiss and Ride
This scheme derives its name from the good-bye kiss of a wife dropping her husband
in the car in the morning near a bus stop from where the husband goes to work in a bus. The
reverse operation takes place in the evening. Adequate space for parking of cars near the bus

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stops where the husbands can be dropped off or their arrivals awaited is an essential
prerequisite for the success of the scheme.
Ill-Effects of Parking
Following are the ill-effects of parking:
a) Congestion
b) Accidents
c) Obstruction to fire-fighting operations
d) Environment
a) Congestion
Loss of street space and the attendant traffic congestion. The capacity of the streets is
reduced, the journey speed drops down and the journey time and delay increases. The
operational cost of vehicles is increased, causing serious economic loss to the community.

b) Accidents
The manoeuvres associated with parking and unparking are known to cause road
accidents. Careless opening of the doors of parked vehicle, moving out of a parked position
and bringing a car to the parking location from the main stream of traffic are some of the
common causes of parking accidents.

c) Obstruction to Fire-Fighting Operations

Parked cars obstruct the movement of fire-fighting vehicles and greatly impede their
operations.

d) Environment
Parked vehicles degrade the environment of the town centre. Stopping and starting of
vehicles result in nose and fumes. Cars parked into every little available space debase the
visual aesthetics.
ACCIDENT STUDIES
Objectives
1) To study the causes of accidents and to suggest corrective treatment at potential location.
2) To evaluate existing designs
3) To support proposed designs
4) To carry out before-and-after studies and to demonstrate the improvement in the problem.
5) To make computations of financial loss.
6) To give economic justification for the improvements suggested by the traffic engineer.
Causes
There are four basic elements in a traffic accident:
1) Road users
2) Vehicles
3) Road and its condition
4) Environmental factors- traffic, weather, etc.
1) Road Users
a) Drivers of one or more vehicles involved
b) Pedestrians
c) Passenger
a) Driver
 Excessive speed and rash driving

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  Carelessness
 Violation of rules and regulations
 Failure to see or understand the traffic situation, sign or signal.
 Temporary effects due to fatigue, sleep or alcohol
b) Pedestrians
 Violating regulations
 Carelessness in using the carriage way meant for vehicular traffic.
c) Passenger
 Alighting from or getting into moving vehicles
2) Vehicle
 Failure of brakes
 Steering system failure
 Tyre burst
 Failure in lighting system
3) Road Condition
 Slippery or skidding road surface
 Pot holes, ruts
 Other damaged conditions of the road surface
Road Design
 Defective geometric design like inadequate sight distance
 Inadequate width of shoulders
 Improper curve design
 Improper lighting
 Improper traffic control devices
Environmental Factors
 The favourable weather condition like mist, fog, snow, dust, smoke or heavy rainfall
which restricts normal visibility and render unsafe.
Animals
 Stray animals on the road

Other Causes
 Incorrect signs or signals
 Gate of level crossing not closed when required
 Ribbon development
 Badly located advertisement boards, etc.

Accident Studies and Records

The various steps involved in traffic accident studies are collection of accident data,
preparation of reports, location file and diagrams and application of the above records for
suggesting preventive measures.

i) Collection of Accident Data

It is the first step in the accident study.

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a) General: Date, time, persons involved in the accident and their particulars, classification
of accident like fatal, serious, minor, etc.
b) Location: Description and details of the location of accident.
c) Details of Vehicles Involved: Registration number, vehicular defects.
d) Nature of Accident: Condition of vehicles involved, details of collision and pedestrians
or objects involved, damages, injuries causality, etc.
e) Road and Traffic Conditions: details of road geometrics, whether the road is straight or
curved, surface characteristics such as dry, wet or slippery, etc.
Traffic condition such as type of traffic, traffic density, etc.
f) Primary causes of accident: various possible causes and primary cause of the accident.
g) Accident Costs: Total cost of the accident computed in terms of rupees, of the various
involvements like property damages, personal injuries and causalities.

ii) Accident Report

The accident should be reported to police authorities who would take legal actions
especially in more serious accidents involving injuries, or severse damage to property.
Accident data should be collected as given above and the accident report is prepared with all
facts which is useful in subsequent analysis, claims for compensation, etc.

iii) Accident Records

The records may be maintained by means of location files, spot maps, collision diagram
and condition diagram.

a) Location Maps or Files: these are useful to keep a check on the location of accident and
to identify points of high accident incidence. Location fields should be maintained by
each police station for the respective jurisdiction.

b) Spot Maps: These show accident by spots, pins or symbols on the map. A map of
suitable scale (say 1 cm= 40-60m) may be used for spotting the urban accidents. Different
shapes and size of spots are used to indicate different types and severity of accident. The
common legend used for spot maps, are given below:

Type of accident Fatal Non-fatal

Motor vehicle-pedestrian
Other motor vehicle traffic

c) Condition Diagram
Condition diagram is a drawing to scale showing all important physical conditions of
an accident location to be studied.

The important features shown in this diagram are roadway limits, curves, kerb lines,
bridges, culverts, trees and all details of roadway conditions, obstruction to vision, property
lines, signs, signals, etc.

Following are the symbols used in condition diagrams:

Department of Civil Engineering, VCET Puttur. Page 18

 Figure below shows a typical condition diagram:

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d) Collision Diagram
It is a schematic representation of an accident happened at a location. Such a diagram
helps in understanding the limitations of the site that often cause accidents. This diagram
shows the approximate path of vehicles and pedestrians involved in the accidents. This
diagram is useful to compare the accident patterns before and after remedial measures have
been taken.Following are the symbols employed in collision diagram:

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 Collision Diagram at a Junction

Procedure of Investigation of Accidents

1) Recording of General Observations

 Measurement of skid mark length due to partial and full skidding
 Recording relative position of vehicles and objects with photographs
 Details of accident, injuries and damages
 Condition of pavement surface, shoulders
 Condition and collision diagrams at accident site.
2) Driver Tests
 Analysis of breath for alcohol content (using breathalyzer)
 Tests on driver characteristics such as reaction time, distance judgement, angle of
clear vision, etc.
3) Skid Resistance of Pavement Surface
 Average skid resistance of the road surface along the skid marks should be measured
using portable pendulum type skid resistance.
4) Vehicle Tests
 Tests on the condition of brakes and steering of the vehicles involved.
 Tests on essential accessories and general condition of vehicle
 Characteristics and details of dents on the vehicles and other objects involved.
5) Probable Causes of Accident
 Assessment of the problem causes of the accident, its type, site condition, position of
the vehicles and other objects involved and other existing conditions.

6) Cost Analysis
 Injuries and fatalities of persons involved

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  Damage to the vehicles
 Property damages
 Other consequences including traffic delay
 Investigations and legal proceeding

Measures for the Reduction in Accident Rates/ Remedial Measures

These are done by “3-Es”
a) Engineering Measures
Geometric design of roads, preventive maintenance of vehicles, before-and –after
studies, road lighting.
b) Enforcement Measures
Speed control, traffic control devices, medical check, training and super vision, law
and regulation.
c) Educational Measures
Educating the road users and pedestrians, education on road safety.
Analysis of Individual Accidents
Types of Accidents:

1) Moving vehicle collides with a parked vehicle.

2) Two vehicles approaching from different direction and collide at the intersection.
3) Head-on-collision of vehicles coming in opposite direction and collide.
4) Moving vehicle collide with stationary objects.

It is necessary to analyze individual accidents to compute original speed or moving speed

of the vehicles and to draw sound conclusions.

SPEED STUDIES
Spot Speed
It is the instantaneous speed of a vehicle at a specified location.
Uses of Spot Speed:
Spot speed measurement is needed for a number of purposes given below:
1) For Geometric Design of Roads
Based on the speed studies, the design speed can be selected and other geometric elements
of design such as horizontal curvature, vertical profile, sight distance and super-elevation
can be determined.
2) For Regulation and Control of Traffic Operations, spot speed studies are needed. They
enable the safe speed limits to be established and speed zoning to be determined.
3) Spot speed is used in the design of traffic signal and location and size of traffic signs.
4) Spot speed is used for analysing the causes of accidents and identifying relation between
speed and accidents.
5) For Before-and-After studies of Road Improvement Schemes, it is necessary to have
spot speed data enabling a meaningful analysis to be carried out of the affect of
improvements.
6) For determining the problems of congestion on roads and relating capacity with speeds.

Objectives of Spot Speed Studies

Following are the objectives of spot speed studies:
1) To establish the trends in operating speeds by periodic collection of data.
Department of Civil Engineering, VCET Puttur. Page 22
2) To check the speed at problem locations whether the speeds are too high or not.
3) In accidents analysis, to obtain the relationship of speed to accidents.
4) To evaluate the capacity of a road w.r.t. speed.
5) In before-and-after studies, to evaluate the effect of changes in conditions.
6) In enforcement to find out the effectiveness of traffic control.
7) For geometric design features these are helpful in following ways:
a) To find out the design speed.
b) To design curvature, sight distance, super elevation, etc.

Site Selection for Spot Speed

1) The location at which measurements are taken is governed by the specific purpose for
which the data is required. For example, if the data is likely to be used to analyse the
accident pattern, the survey will be needed at high accident frequency locations.

2) Site selected should reduce the influence of study team and equipment to a minimum upon
the vehicle speed. For this purpose, the study team and the equipment should be located as
inconspicuously (far) as possible.

3) Generally straight, level and open sections of highways should be selected so as to

minimise the influence of geometric features of the highways, road-side development and
intersections.

Methods of Measuring Spot Speeds

The methods available for measuring spot speed can be grouped as below:
1) Those that require observation of the time taken by vehicle to cover a known
distance. This method can be further classified into:
a) Those in which vehicles are timed over a long distance (long
distance) Following are the commonly used methods:
i. Direct timing procedure
ii. Enoscope
iii. Pressure contact tubes
b) Those in which vehicles are timed over a short distance (short base)
i. Use of vehicle detectors over a short distance
2) Radar speedmeter
Automatically records the instantaneous speed
3) Photographic method and video camera method

Direct-Timing Procedure for Spot Speed Determination

It is one of the simplest method for spot speed determination.
Procedure
Two reference points are marked on the pavement at a suitable distance apart and an
observer starts and stops the stop-watch as a vehicle crosses these two marks.

From the known distance and by the measured time intervals speed can be calculated.

Skilled observers can read a stop-watch to an accuracy of 0.2 second.

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 The disadvantage with this method is that large errors are likely to be introduced
because of the parallax effect.

A simple variation of this method is to station two observers, one at each reference
point. The observer standing at the reference point which the vehicle passes first, signals that
a vehicle to be timed is passing the point and the second observer then starts watch. The
second observer stops the stop watch when he observers the same vehicle passing the
reference point. The disadvantage with this method is that it involves the reaction time of two
individual observers.

Enoscope
It is also known as the mirror-box. It is an L-shaped box, open at both ends, with a
mirror set at a 45-degree angle to the arms of the instrument as shown in figure 1.

Fig 1: Enoscope

Enoscope eliminates the parallex effect that creeps in when the direct readings are
taken by one observer.

Working Principle/Procedure

The instrument bends the Line of Sight (LoS) of the observer so that it is
perpendicular to the path of the vehicle. The method can be used with one enoscope or with
two enoscopes.

If one enoscope is used, the instrument is placed directly opposite directly opposite to
the first reference point and the observer stations himself at the other reference point as
shown in figure 2.

Fig 2

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 The stop-watch is started as soon as the vehicle passes the first reference point and is
stopped as soon as it passes the second reference point (observer). If two enoscopes are used,
the observer stations himself mid-way between the two reference points and starts the stop-
watch as soon as a vehicle crosses the first reference point and stops the stop-watch when it
crosses the second reference point.
Advantages of Enoscope
1) It eliminates parallax errors
2) It is very easy, flexible and fairly reliable
3) Lesser cost involved
4) It provides extra time in judging the vehicle, when it crosses the course length.
Disadvantages of Enoscope
1) Progress of work is very slow
2) It is not advisable for heavy multi-lane traffic and lesser number of samples are observed.

Pressure Contact Tubes

In this method, detectors (usually pneumatic tubes) are used to indicate the time of
entering and leaving the base length.
When a vehicle passes over the tube laid at the first reference point, an air impulse is
sent, which activates an electromagnetically controlled stop-watch in the hands of the
observer.
When the vehicle passes over the second tube, the stop-watch automatically stops.
The reading is noted by the observer. Alternatively, the readings can be recorded by
automatic data recorders.
Disadvantage of Pressure Contact Tubes:
1) Pressure contact tubes are easily seen by drivers and this may affect their behaviour.
Short-Base Methods
Use of Vehicle Detectors over a Short Distance
In short-base methods, the base length for measuring the speeds is very short, say
about 2m.
The instruments are electronic and are used in conjunction with pneumatic tubes or
electric detectors laid across the pavement.

Recording can be manual i.e., the instantaneous speeds being noted by the observer or
can be automatic with an electronic system.

2) Radar Speedmeter

These meters work on the Doppler principle that the speed of a moving body is
proportional to the change in the frequency between the radio wave transmitted to the moving
body and the radio wave received back.
The instrument directly measures the speed at an accuracy of atleast ±1.5 to 3 kmph.
The instrument is battery operated and is portable.
The speed meter is so kept that the angle between the direction of travel of the vehicle
and the axis of transmission of the radio wave is as low as possible, within 20º. The
instrument is set up near the edge of the carriage way at a height of about 1m, above the
ground level. The speeds of vehicles in both directions can be observed by this method.

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 This method has been extensively used for traffic engineering studies as well as for
enforcement by traffic police.

3) Photographic Method and Video Camera Method

This method is adopted in crowded streets to determine the speeds of vehicles.

According to this method, photographs are taken as fixed intervals of time on a special
camera. By projecting the film on a screen, the passage of any vehicle can be traced with
reference to time. Images by video cameras can also be used.

Presentation of Spot Speed Data

1) Average Speed of Vehicles

From the spot speed data of the selected samples, frequency distribution tables are
prepared by arranging the data in groups covering various speed ranges and the number of
vehicles in such range. The arithmetic mean calculated is taken as the average speed. The
table gives the general information of the speeds maintained on the section (road) and also
regarding the speed distribution pattern.

2) Cumulative Speed of Vehicles

A graph is plotted with the average values of each speed group on the X-axis and the
cumulative percent of vehicles travelled at or below the different speeds on the Y-axis.

From this graph, the 85th percentile speed is found out which gives that speed at or
below 85th percent of the vehicles are passing the point on the highway or only 15 th percent of
the vehicles exceed the speed at that spot.

The drivers exceeding 85th percentile speed are usually considered to drive faster than
the safe speed under existing conditions and hence this speed is adopted for the safe speed
limit at this zone. For the purpose of highway geometric design, the 98 th percentile speed is
taken.

The 15th percentile speed represents the lower speed limit if it is desired to prohibit
slow moving vehicles to decrease delay and congestion, as 85 th percent of the vehicles to the
stream travel at speeds higher than this value and therefore need overtaking opportunities.

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3) Modal Average

The frequency distribution curve of spot speeds is plotted with speed of vehicles or
average values of each speed group of vehicles on the X-axis and the percentage of vehicles
in that group on the Y-axis.

This graph is called the speed distribution curve. This curve will have a definite peak
value of travel speed across the section and this speed is denoted as model speed. The speed
distribution curve is helpful in determining the speed at which the greatest proportions of
vehicles move, given by the model speed.

All vehicles do not travel at the same speed at a location along a road. The amount of
speed dispersion or the spread from the average speed affects both capacity and safety.

For free flow of vehicles, the speed distribution follows a normal distribution curve.
The quality of flow of vehicles in a stream therefore depends on the speed dispersion. This
may be judged by several methods such as (85 th minus 15th percentile speeds); standard
deviation of speeds, or the coefficient of variation in speed.

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SPEED AND DELAY STUDIES

Running Speed and Journey Speed

Running speed is the average speed maintained by a vehicle over a given course
while the vehicle is in motion. Running speed excludes that part of the journey time when the
vehicle suffers delay.

Running speed = (Length of the course)/ (Running time)

= (Length of the course)/ (Journey time- delay)

Journey speed (overall travel speed) is the effective speed of a vehicle between two
points and is the distance between two points divided by the total time taken by the vehicle to
complete the journey, including all delays incurred en-route.

Journey speed = (Distance) / (total journey time (including delays))

Use of Journey Time and Delay Studies

1) The cost of a journey depends upon the speed at which it is made. In all highway
economic studies, journey speeds and delay are highly important.
2) Journey-time studies on a road network in a town are useful to evaluate congestion,
capacity, level of service and the need for improvements.
3) In transportation planning studies, the determination of the travel time is necessary for
carrying out the trip assignment. Also travel time and delays are some of the factors
affecting modal choice.
4) Before-and-after studies pertaining to journey time are useful for assessing the
effectiveness of improvement measures.
5) Delay studies at intersections provide data for the design and installation of the
appropriate traffic control device.

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Methods for Measurement of Running Speed and Journey Speed

The methods commonly used for measuring running speed and journey speed are:
1) Moving Observer Method/Floating Car/Riding Check Method
2) Registration Number Method/ Vehicle Number Method/License Plate
3) Elevated Observer Method/ Elevated Observations
4) Interview Technique
5) Photographic Technique

1) Floating Car Method

In this method, a test vehicle is driven over a given course of travel at an average
speed of the traffic stream, thus trying to float with the traffic stream.
A number of test runs are made along the study stretch and a group of observers
record the various details.
One observer is seated in the floating car with two stop watches. One of the stop
watches is used to record the time at various control points like intersections, bridges or any
other fixed points in each trip. The other stop watch is used to find the duration of individual
delays.
The second observer records the time, location and cause of these delays on suitable
tabular forms or by voice recording equipment.
The number of vehicle overtaking the test vehicle and that overtaken by the test
vehicles are noted in each trip by a third observer.
The number of vehicles travelling in the opposite direction in each trip is noted by a
fourth observer.
But in mixed traffic flow, more number of observers is required to count the vehicles
of different classes. In this method the detailed information is obtained concerning all phases
of speed and delay including location, duration and causes of delay.
The average journey time t (minute) for all the vehicles in a traffic stream in the
direction of flow (q) is given by:
ny
t  tw 
q

(na  ny)
q  ta  tw
Where,
q = flow of vehicles, in one direction of the stream.
na = average number of vehicles counted in the direction of the stream when the test
vehicle travels in the opposite direction.
ny = average number of vehicles overtaking the test vehicle minus the number of
vehicles overtaken when the test is in the direction of „q‟
tw = Average journey time,(in minute) when the test vehicle is travelling with the stream
q.
ta = Average journey time,(in minute) when the test vehicle is running against the
stream q.

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2) Vehicle Number Method

In this method, synchronized stop-watches or voice recording equipment are used.

Observers are stationed at the entrance and exit of a test section where information of travel
time is required. The timings and the vehicle numbers are noted by the observers of the
observers of the selected sample. From the office computations, travel time of each vehicle
could be found. But the method does not give important details such as causes of delays and
the duration and number of delays within the test section.

3) Elevated Observation and Photographic Technique

These methods are useful for studying short test sections like intersections, etc.,
Studies at each intersection will help in evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of
the control device like signal system, remedial measures for accidents, etc.
4) Interview Technique

In this method, the work can be completed in a short time by interviewing and
collecting details from the road users on the spot. However the data collected may not
provide with all the details correctly.

Presentation of Journey Speed and Running Speed (Travel Time and Journey Speed
Data)

1) Graphical representation
2) Time zone map around a CBD
The journey speed and running speed data pertaining to a road network in an area can
be conveniently represented in the graphical form as shown in figure.

The actual time taken for journeys to various points from a common point of origin or
destination can be represented in a time zone map. In this map, the time taken is shown in the
form of contours as shown in figure and it is known as Isochrones.

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Delay Studies
It is done by the moving observer method (as described earlier). The delays occurring
due to stopping can be recorded by separate stop-watch. The delays which are measured may
be of stopped delays or fixed delays which occur at intersections, railway crossing and stop
signs.

In addition to stopped delays, there are delays which are caused by the interaction of
various factors such as congestion, inadequacy of carriage widths, mixed traffic conditions,
parked cars and heavy pedestrian flow. This kind of delay is called congestion delay or
operational delay and it is difficult to be measured precisely.

One method of measuring congestion delay is to determine the average running speed
when the traffic conditions are free-moving and vehicles are free to move without any
hindrance. The difference between this speed and the actual speed under congested
conditions gives an idea of the congestion delay.
Design Speed
It is the maximum safe speed selected which can be maintained over a particular
section of highway under favourable conditions of weather, traffic and road geometrics.
Median Speed
It is the speed represented by a middle value when all the speeds are arranged in
ascending order. It is known as 50th percentile speed.
50th Percentile Speed
Out of total observations half the speed values will be above and half will be below
the speed.
85th Percentile Speed
It is the speed below which 85% of the vehicles will travels. It is the speed at which
motorists are tempting the safety conditions of highway and should not be exceeded. It is
often used as criteria in establishing the upper limit of speed for traffic management purpose.

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98th Percentile Speed (or) Speed Limit for Geometric Design
This speed is considered in geometric design of highways.

15th Percentile Speed

It is the lower limit of speed to avoid traffic congestion.

Modal Speed
It is the speed at which more number of vehicles travel. It is the peak of a frequency
distribution curve. It is the speed value which occurs frequently and this speed is having
highest frequency of observations.

Average Speed
It is the average of spot speeds of all the vehicles passing a given point on the
highway.
This is of two types:
a) Space-Mean Speed
b) Time-Mean Speed

a) Space-Mean Speed
It is the speed corresponding to average of overall travel time to cover a particular
section of highway.

Where
, Vs= space-mean speed, kmph
D= length of road considered, m
n= number of individual vehicle observations
ti= observed travel time(sec) for ith vehicle to travel distance d(m)

b) Time-Mean Speed
It is also known as arithmetic mean speed. It is obtained by adding all the journey
speeds at different observations and are divided by the number of observations.

Where
,
Vt= time-mean speed, kmph
Vi= observed instantaneous speed of ith vehicles, kmph
n= number of vehicles observed.
Objectives of Spot Speed Studies
Following are the objectives of spot speed studies:
1) To establish the trends in operating speeds by periodic collection of data.
2) To check the speed at problem locations whether the speeds are too high or not.
3) In accidents analysis, to obtain the relationship of speed to accidents.
4) To evaluate the capacity of a road w.r.t. speed.
5) In before-and-after studies, to evaluate the effect of changes in conditions.
6) In enforcement to find out the effectiveness of traffic control.
Department of Civil Engineering, VCET Puttur. Page 32
7) For geometric design features these are helpful in following ways:
a) To find out the design speed.
b) To design curvature, sight distance, super elevation, etc.
8) Data collected in these studies is helpful in traffic regulation and control in the following
ways:
a) To establish speed limits
b) To locate traffic signs
c) To located and designing of traffic signals
d) Establishing speed zones.
e) Safe speeds on curves and at intersections.

Statistical Applications in Traffic Studies

A number of statistical methods are currently being applied in traffic engineering
studies. These include:
1) Regression method
2) Poisson distribution
3) Normal distribution
4) Chi-squared test
5) Quality control method

1) Regression Methods
The basic principle behind this method is that the expected number of accidents, on a
certain road system during a given time period, is dependent in a linear way on factors which
are supposed to be of significance for the determination of accident frequency. The number
of accidents occurring on a certain day is itself assumed to be normally distributed, with a
mean value being a linear function of regression variables, and a variance being constant an
same for all days of a certain time period studied. The numbers of accidents on different days
are assumed to be stochastically independent. Some of the regression variables (independent
variables) that could be considered are:
a) Two wheeled vehicles involved in personal injury accidents as a proportion of all vehicles
involved.
b) Cost of safety improvements.
c) Number of pedestrians
d) Pavement width
e) Number of junctions per km length of road.

The regression model is of the following form:

Z = α0 + α1 x1 + α2 x2 + α3 x3 + α4 x4 +.....................+ αn xn

Where, Z = accident rate

α1, α2,...........αn = regression coefficients
x1, x2,...........xn = independent variables
α0 = regression constant

The regression equation is easy to determine by means of a computer programme by

the method of least squares.

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2) Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution has found useful application in many aspects of traffic
engineering. The most widely used situation is arrival pattern of vehicles, which is a random
phenomenon.
The expression P(r) = n Pr e-np = mr e-m can be conveniently modified to a more suitable
form
r! r!
when dealing with the arrival pattern of vehicles. M in the above expression denotes the
average number of occurrences, which can be determined from observed data or in the
absence of observed data, can be assumed from past experience. The observations can be
instantaneous, or counting events during a stated time interval or counting units in a definite
area, etc. the general definition for m then is
m = Total number of events observed
Total number of trials or time intervals

3) Normal Distribution
The most important distribution of a continous variable is the normal distribution. The
normal distribution has a number of useful applications in traffic engineering. One of the
examples of a normal distribution is the speed of vehicles. Normal distribution is very useful
in dealing with sampling, since it is found that irrespective of the distribution of the
population, means of random samples taken from the population tend to assume a normal
distribution. Normal distribution can also be used for approximating other types of
distribution.

4) Chi-squared (χ2) Test

The chi-squared χ2 test is a very useful statistical tool and has many applications.
Following are the important applications to the traffic engineering. They are:
a) Testing of proportions with contingency tables
b) Goodness-of-fit test
A convenient application of the χ2 tests is in testing the comparability of observed and
expected values in two way tables, known as contingency tables.

Another useful application of the chi-squared distribution is in the goodness-of-fit. In

this test, the measure of the discrepancy between a set of observed data and the values that
are to be expected if the results follow a hypothesis distribution is evaluated.

5) Quality Control Method

Statistical approach to quality control problem has been widely recognized as an
effective tool, finding applications in diverse fields. An interesting use of such an approach is
in the accident analysis field. The method is basically built upon the Poission distribution
model for the occurrence of accidents. From past records on estimate of „m‟, the expected
average number of accidents, is first made. Thereafter confidence limits are determined for
the number of accidents for any desired level, say 99 percent. If the observed number of
accidents falls beyond these limits, it can be deduced that there is a significant change in the
accident causation and that the observed value is not merely due to chance.

Department of Civil Engineering, VCET Puttur. Page 34

Traffic Forecasting

1. Forecast Based on Past Trends and Extrapolation

The simplest method of forecasting is to analyse the past data for a number of years and
to extrapolate the past trends assuming that the conditions will continue to change in the
future at the same rates as in the past.
1) It is easy and cheap.
2) It is good enough in a stable environment, which is beyond the influence of any major
change in production, population and so on.

In this study, the analyst has to carefully study the past data and look for any indicators
that are likely to influence the future pattern.
In another method, data on certain known contributors to traffic are analysed and then
traffic is forecast based on any relation between traffic and these contributors. Population,
gross domestic product, vehicle ownership, agricultural and industrial, fuel consumption etc,
are some of these contributors.
Population data are available in all the countries for the past number of years. Future
population is predicted by the elaborate methods available with the demographers and the
transport planner should consult the experts in the field for help. Forecast of this parameter
may not be very reliable but a reasonable accuracy should be acceptable for the purposes of
traffic forecasting.
Vehicle ownership is an important determinant of traffic. If the vehicle population is
known, total number of travel per year expressed in vehicle- km, can be found by multiplying
the vehicle population with the average run of a vehicle in a year.
To determine car ownership rates, econometric models have been developed.
Data on fuel consumption in the past can be a good indicator of the amount of travel;
difficulties arise because of the use of petrol and diesel for purposes other than motor vehicle.

Data on agricultural, industrial and mining output and consumption, including exports
and imports, can be useful in discerning the past trends and arriving at a future forecast.

2. Forecast by Mathematical Method

Forecast of travel demands (trip making) based on mathematical modelling are
popular in transportation planning. The prediction of future traffic based on such models is an
accurate method, provided the models are calibrated with care after the necessary data are
collected.
a) Travel Demand Function
Demand for travel is an economic activity, which is understood by reference to well
known economic principles dealing with consumer choice behaviour in relation to common
goods.
Trip making function commonly used by the traffic engineer is of the form similar to the
above function and is
n n
T ijkr = D ijkR (L,S,A)
Where
, Tn ijkr = Total number of trips for the purposes n between origin „i‟ to destination „j‟
by make „k‟ and route „r‟.

Department of Civil Engineering, VCET Puttur. Page 35

 Dn ijkR (.) = Demand function.
L = Level of service
S = Socio-economic factor
A= Activity system
variable.
b) Sequential and Simultaneous Models
The trip making behaviour consists of four descriptions:
1) Trip frequency
2) Destination
3) Mode
4) Route and other choice

In the sequential models, the trip-making behavior is built-up in a sequential order and
each travel decision is made independently of others.
In the simultaneous models, all attributes of travel choice are considered together.

c) Aggregate and Disaggregate Models

Aggregate models deal with the estimation of travel of a group of travelers.
Disaggregate models deal with the smallest decision making unit, the individual traveler.

Types of Traffic

Following are the types of traffic, necessary while dealing with traffic forecasting:

1) Current Traffic-Existing and Attracted (or diverted)

This represents the volume of traffic that would use an improved highway if it were
open to traffic. It consists of the existing traffic plus or minus the existing traffic attracted to
it/ or diverted traffic that is lost to it form/to other facilities when the improvements are
completed.

2) Traffic Increase
a) Normal growth of traffic, representing the increase in traffic on the existing facility if no
improvement is made. This is due to general increase in the number and usage motor
vehicles.
b) Diverted traffic, representing the traffic diverted on to, or away from, the route or mode
being studied.
c) Induced Traffic, representing the new traffic because of new travelers making use of the
improved or new facility.
d) Items (b) and (c) above are also sometimes known as generated traffic.
e) Development Traffic, representing the increase in traffic due to improvements on adjacent
land over and above the development which would have taken place had not the new or
improved highway been constructed.

Department of Civil Engineering, VCET Puttur. Page 36

TRAFFIC CAPACITY STUDIES

Traffic capacity is the ability of a roadway to accommodate traffic volume or it is

expressed as maximum number of vehicle in a lane or a road that can pass a given point in a
unit time. Both capacity and volume are measures of traffic flow having the same units but,
volume represents the actual rate of flow whereas, the capacity indicates the capability or the
maximum rate of flow. Capacity depends on the number of prevailing traffic and roadway
conditions.

Basic Capacity
It is the maximum number of passenger cars that can pass a given point on a lane or a
roadway during an hour under the most ideal roadway and traffic conditions, which can be
attained. Basic capacity is the theoretical capacity.

Possible Capacity
It is the maximum number of vehicles that can pass a given point on a lane or
roadway during one hour under the prevailing roadway and traffic conditions. The possible
capacity of a road is generally much lower than the basic capacity as the prevailing roadway
and traffic conditions are ideal.
In worst case when the prevailing traffic condition is so bad that due to traffic
congestion. The traffic may come to a standstill, the possible capacity of the road may
approach zero.

Practical Capacity/Design Capacity

It is the maximum number of vehicle that can pass a given point on a lane or roadway
during one hour, without traffic density being so great as to cause unreasonable delay or
restrictions to drivers freedom under the existing roadway and traffic conditions.

Traffic Density
It is the number of vehicles occupying a unit length of lane or roadway at a given
instant (time) per certain length. It is expressed as vehicles per kilometre (vehicle/km)

Generally, traffic volume = traffic density * traffic speed

= (veh/km) * (km/hr)
= veh/hr

Highest traffic density occurs under traffic congestion or when traffic volume is zero.

Level of Service (LOS)

When a road is carrying a traffic equal in volume to its capacity under ideal roadway
and traffic conditions, the operating conditions become poor. Speed drops down and the
delay and the frequency of stops mount up.

Level of service is defined as a qualitative measured describing the operational

conditions within a traffic stream, and their perception by motorist and or passengers.

Following are the factors considered in evaluating the LOS:

a) Operating speed

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 b) Travel time
c) Traffic interruptions
d) Freedom of manoeuvre
e) Economy

f) Driving comfort
g) Safety

The HCM (Highway Capacity Manual) has suggested six levels A, B, C, D, E and F as
shown in figure below:
LOS ‘A’ is considered to exist when the volume to capacity is so low that most of the
individual vehicles have opportunities to travel at their free speeds and to overtake the slower
vehicles at their will, this is possible at the highest speed range. With increase in the volume
of the v/c ratio, the operating speeds of faster vehicles and their opportunities to overtake
decreases and the LOS fall to decreasing values of B, C, D and E. Further, increase in
vehicle arrivals causes further decrease in stream speed as well as in maximum flow,
resulting in undue congestion and the lowest LOS ‘F’ when forced flow conditions exist.

Factors Governing/Affecting Practical Capacity

1) Lane Width
As the lane width decreases, the capacity also decreases. The practical capacity of
3.0m wide lane in a two-lane rural road may decrease to76 percent of the capacity of a 3.5m
lane.
2) Lateral Clearance
Vertical obstructions such as retaining walls or parked vehicles near the traffic lane
reduce the effective width of a lane and thus result in reduction in the capacity of lane.
Further, restricted lateral clearance effects driving comfort and increases rates. A minimum
clearance of 1.85m from the pavement edge to the obstruction is considered desirable so that
capacity is not affected adversely. When the distance from pavement edge to an obstruction
decreases to 0.75m on one side only, the capacity decreases to 96% and when this obstruction
is on both sides, the percentage further decreases to 80% of the standard design capacity.

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3) Width of Shoulders
Narrow shoulders reduce the effective width of traffic lanes as the vehicles travel towards
the centre of the pavement. When vehicles in emergency (like that of a tyre puncture or other
break down) have to park on the shoulder of insufficient width, there is reduction in effective
lane width resulting in a great reduction in the capacity of the lane.
4) Commercial Vehicle
Large commercial vehicles like truck and buses occupy greater space and influence
the other traffic in the same lane as well as the vehicles along the adjoining lanes. Also these
heavy commercial vehicles may travel at lower speeds especially on grades.
5) Alignment
If the alignment and geometrics are not upto the desired standards, the capacity will
decrease. Restrictions to sight distance requirements cause reduction in capacity. Steep and
long grades affect the capacity. When 60% of the road length has sub-standard OSD, the
capacity decreases to 65% of the standard design capacity.
6) Presence of Intersections At Grade
Intersections restrict free flow of traffic and adversely affect the capacity. The
capacity of the intersection of two roads crossing at grade will be slightly less than the road
with lower capacity of two. At signalized intersections as the vehicles have to stop alternately
to allow crossing traffic, the capacity of the intersection will be further decreased. In order to
provide consistent traffic flow and maximum capacity on important highways is necessary to
plan them as controlled access highways with grade separated intersections.
7) Other Factors
Other factors which affect the capacity are stream speed, one or two way traffic
movement, number of traffic lanes, vehicular and driver characteristics, composition of
traffic and traffic volume.

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