A+ Student-Notes General Maths Unit 3
A+ Student-Notes General Maths Unit 3
4. Find the Least squares regression line (Calc > Regression > Linear Reg)
5. Write down the key results and graph residuals against EV to test linearity assumption
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Univariate Data
Categorical Variables: represents characteristics or qualities of people or things
• Nominal: data values that can be used to groups individuals according to a characteristic
Example. Eye Colour, Gender, Postal Code
• Ordinal: data values that can be used to both group and order individuals according to a
characteristic
Example. Fitness Level, Economic Status, Education Level
Numerical Variables: represents quantities and things that can be counted or measured
Frequency Table
• A listing of values a variable takes in a dataset, along with how frequently each value occurs
Example:
FMMFFMFFFMM
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Bar Chart
• Represents key information in a frequency tables as picture, which has bars of equal width and
spacing to represent each category
Example:
The climate type of 23 countries is classified as ‘cold’, ‘mild’, or ‘hot’. Construct a frequency bar
chart to display this information using the data summarised in the table.
Histograms
• A graphical display of information in a grouped frequency table with bars of equal width and
no spacing
Example:
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Dot Plots
Example:
22 19 18 19 23 25 22 29 18 22 23 24 22
Stem Plots
• Displays discrete and continuous data for small to medium sized data sets
Example:
26 3 12 20 36 1 25 26 13 9 26 27 15 21 7 8 22 3 37 17 55 30 1
Which graph?
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Median, Range and Interquartile Range
𝑛𝑛+1
• Located at the � � 𝑡𝑡ℎ position, where n = number of data values
2
Range: difference between the largest and smallest value in the data set
Interquartile Range: the spread of the middle of the 50% of data values
Box Plots
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Outliers: 𝑄𝑄3 + (1.5 × 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼) 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑄𝑄1 − (1.5 × 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼)
Example:
Minimum 4
First Quartile 30
Median 36
Third Quartile 44
Maximum 92
Outliers 4, 70, 84, 92
Comparing Distributions
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Measuring Centre of Distribution
Mean vs Median
• Skewed and/or outliers >>> Median (mean is drastically changed due to outliers)
• The value of the median is relatively unaffected by the presence of extreme values in a
distribution. For this reason, the median is frequently used as a measure of centre when the
distribution is known to be clearly skewed and/or likely to contain outliers.
68-96-99.7% Rule
• 68% of the observations lie within one standard deviation of the mean
• 95% of the observations lie within two standard deviations of the mean
• 99.7% of the observations lie within three standard deviations of the mean.
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Standard Deviation:
�)𝟐𝟐
∑(𝒙𝒙−𝒙𝒙
• 𝒔𝒔 = � 𝒏𝒏−𝟏𝟏
Example:
The distribution of delivery times for pizzas made by House of Pizza is approximately normal, with a
mean of 25 minutes and a standard deviation of 5 minutes.
Example:
The heights of a group of young women have a mean of ¯x = 160 cm and a standard deviation of s =
8 cm. Determine the standard or z-scores of a woman who is 150cm tall.
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Example:
The means and standard deviations for VCE Further Maths score of two schools are given below.
Find the mark that has a z-score equally above Townson High mean as it is below City Secondary
mean.
𝑧𝑧1 = −𝑧𝑧2
27.97𝑥𝑥 = 2039.684
𝑥𝑥 = 72.92
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Bivariate Data
Response Variable: the variable, which is being influenced, the dependent variable (y axis)
Explanatory Variable: the variable, which is influencing, the independent variable (x axis)
Note: When investigating the correlation between two variables, the Explanatory Variable is the
variable we expect to explain or predict the value of the Response Variable
Example:
Of the following pairs of variables, which are response, and which are explanatory?
Explanatory Response
Amount of alcohol consumed and reaction time Amount of Alcohol Reaction Time
Distance travelled, and time taken Distance Travelled Time Taken
Heart disease and amount of fat in diet Amount of Fat Heart Disease
Hours worked per week and salary Hours worked Salary
Example:
According to the results summarized in the table, is there an association between support for
banning mobile phones in cinemas and the sex of the respondent?
Yes, the percentage of males in support of banning mobile phones in cinemas (87.9%) was
much higher than for females (65.8%).
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Parallel Box Plots
• A statistical tool used for investigating associations between a numerical and categorical
variable
Example:
The parallel box plots below compare the salary distribution for four different age groups: 20–
29 years, 30–39 years, 40–49 years and 50–65 years.
• Median
Example:
The parallel box plots show that median salaries and age group are associated because median
salaries increase with age group. For example, the median salary increased from $34 000 for
20−29 year-olds to $42000 for 50−65 year-olds.
Example:
From the parallel box plots we can see that the spread of salaries is associated with age group.
For example, the IQR increased from around $12000 for 20−29-year-olds to around $20 000 for
50−65-year-olds.
• Shape
Example:
From the parallel box plots we can see that the shape of the distribution of salaries is
associated with age group because of the distribution, which is symmetric for 20−29-year-olds,
and becomes progressively more positively skewed as age increases. Outliers also begin to
appear.
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Parallel Dot Plots
• Used to investigate associations between numerical and categorical variables for small data
sets
Example:
Do the parallel dot plots support the contention that the number of sit-ups performed is
associated with completing the gym program? Write a brief explanation that compares
medians.
Yes; the median number of sit-ups performed after attending the gym program (M = 32) is
considerably higher than the number of sit-ups performed before attending the gym program
(M = 26). This indicates that the number of sit-ups performed is associated with completing the
gym program.
• Used to investigate associations between numerical and categorical variables for small data
sets
Example:
The back-to-back stem plot below displays the distribution of life expectancy (in years) for 13
countries in 2010 and 1970. Do the back-to-back stem plots support the contention that life
expectancy is increasing over time? Write a brief explanation based on your comparisons of
the two medians.
Yes: the median life expectancy in 2010 (M = 76 years) is considerably higher than the median
life expectancy in 1970 (M = 67 years). This indicates that life expectancy is increasing over
time.
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Scatterplots
Example:
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Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient
∑(𝑥𝑥−𝑥𝑥̅ )(𝑦𝑦−𝑦𝑦�)
• 𝑟𝑟 = (𝑛𝑛−1)𝑆𝑆𝑥𝑥 𝑆𝑆𝑦𝑦
• Assumes that:
Correlation of Determination
• The coefficient of determination (as a percentage) tells us the variation in the response
variable that is explained by the variation in the explanatory variable
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Correlation and Causality:
• Correlation tells you about the strength of association instead of the source or cause
• Finding out if one variable causes the other variable to occur
• Causation cannot exist without correlation; correlation can exist without causation
Confounding Variables: two possible explanations for association but no way to detangle their
affects
Fitting a straight line to bivariate data, minimising the sum of the squares of the residual
Residual: vertical distance between the actual data point and the regression line
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Interpreting the slope and the intercept of the regression line:
Slope: On average, for every (one unit) increase in (x), (y) will (increase/ decrease) by (Gradient)
When using regression line to make predictions, substitute values into the equation
Example:
Residual Plots
Linear: A random
collection of points
clustered around zero
From the scatterplot we see that there is a strong negative, linear association between the price of a
second hand car and its age, r = −0.964. There are no obvious outliers.
The equation of the least squares regression line is: price = 35 100 − 3940× age.
The slope of the regression line predicts that, on average, the price of these second-hand cars
decreased by $3940 each year.
The intercept predicts that, on average, the price of these cars when new was $35 100.
The coefficient of determination indicates that 93% of the variation in the price of these second-
hand cars is explained by the variation in their age.
The lack of a clear pattern in the residual plot confirms the assumption of a linear association
between the price and the age of these second-hand cars.
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Transformations effects
Reciprocal: compress the upper end of the scale on an axis but to a greater extent than the log
transformation
Note: When transformations are applied include the transformed figure in the equation
• Trend (Increasing or Decreasing): tendencies for values for values in a time series to generally
increase or decrease over a significant period of time
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• Cycles (Clear Pattern): periodic movements in a time series, but over a period greater than a
year
• Seasonal (Clear Pattern with equal spacing): periodic movement in a time series that has a
calendar-related period – for example a year, a month or a week.
• Irregular (Random) Fluctuations: variations in a time series that we cannot reasonably attribute
to systematic changes like trend, cycles, seasonality and structural change or an outlier.
• Structural Changes: sudden change in the established pattern of a time series plot
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• Outliers: individual values that stand out from the general body of data
Smoothing: replacing individual data points in a time series to reduce random variation in data
Note: To decide best number of groups for smoothing, count data values until trend changes
𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴 𝟏𝟏+𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴 𝟐𝟐
Centring:
𝟐𝟐
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Smoothing Time Series using Moving Medians
Seasonal indices:
A season index of 1.2 tells during February tells us that Unemployment figures for February are
20% above the monthly average.
𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 =
𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
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Correcting seasonality:
1
𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
Example:
Mikki runs a shop and she wishes to determine quarterly seasonal indices based on last year’s sales,
which are shown in the table opposite.
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The seasonal index for heaters in winter is 1.25.
To correct for seasonality, the actual heater sales in winter should be:
A: reduced by 20%
B: increased by 20%
C: reduced by 25%
D: increased by 25%
E: increased by 75%
If the seasonal index is over one, the deseasonalised value is less; thus actual sales is reduced.
To find percentage;
1.25 − 1
× 100 = 20
1.25
OR
1
= 0.8 ∴ 1 − 0.8 = 0.2
1.25
Describe the general pattern in rainfall that is revealed by the smoothed time series plot.
Until April, there is an increase in monthly rainfall. It then remains relatively constant for the
remainder of the year.
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Recursion and Financial Modelling
Sequences: list of numbers written down in succession, with each number being a ‘term’
Example:
Generate the first five term of the sequence, showing the values of the first four iterations (each
time a rule is applied).
Modelling Linear Growth and Decay: when a quantity increases or decreases by the same amount at
regular intervals
Simple Interest
• Simple Interest Loans: borrow money from a bank and pay a fixed amount of interest to the
bank
• Simple Interest Investments: deposit money in a bank account and received a fixed amount of
interest from the bank
• Note: must have fixed amount and occur over regular time periods
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Depreciation: reductions of an item’s value over time
Future Value: estimated value of an item after a certain period of time through taking into account
its potential depreciation
Scrap Value: when an item is n longer an asset and depreciated to a point where is it disposed or
sold
• Flat Rate Depreciation: constant amount is subtracted to decay the value of the asset after
every time period
• Unit Cost Depreciation: items losing value because of how often they are used, rather than its
age
Modelling Geometric Growth and Decay: when quantities increase or decrease by the same
percentage at regular intervals
Compound Interest: any interest earned after one time period is added to the principal and then
contributes to the earned of interest in the next time period
Note: to determine interest rate which is not compounded annually through division. For example, if
it is compounded monthly, divide by 12
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• Reducing Balance Depreciation: form of depreciation, where the value of an asset decays
geometrically. Each year, the value will be reduced by a percentage, r%, of the previous year’s
value.
Used to predict the value of the nth term (iteration) in the sequence without generating all of the
other terms.
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Nominal Interest Rates: compound interest rates quoted as annual rates or interest rates per
annum
Usually the nominal rate is stated, then a different time period is mentioned for which the interest is
calculated and paid. This is called the ‘compounding period’
It is assumed that:
Note: To convert nominal interest rate to compounding interest rate, divide by its respective
3.6
numbers, eg. Covert 3.6% per annum to a monthly rate. 12 = 0.3%
Effective Interest Rates: interest earned after one year expressed as a percentage of the amount
borrowed or invested
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Example:
Brooke would like to borrow $20000. She is deciding between two loan options:
USING CAS
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Modelling and Analysing Reducing Balance Loans and Annuities
Financial Solver
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Combining Geometric Growth and Decay
Example:
The number of trout in a fish farm pond after n months, Tn, can be modelled using the recurrence
relation: 𝑇𝑇0 = 10000, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 + 1 = 1.1 × 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 − 3000. After how many months will there be no trout
left in the pond?
Example:
𝑉𝑉0 = 1000, 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 + 1 = 1.0125𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 − 257.85, What is the balance of the loan (the amount she still
owes) after she has made two payments? Give your answer to the nearest cent.
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Amortisation Loans: loans that are repaid by making regular payments until the balance is zero
• Part of each payment goes towards the interest owed on the unpaid balance.
• Remainder of payment used to reduce the unpaid balance.
Example:
Amortisation Process
Example:
Amortisation Table
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Interest Only Loans: borrower only repays the interest which is charged, the value of the loan
remains the same
𝑟𝑟
𝐷𝐷 = 𝑉𝑉 Value of the Loan is the Same
100 0
𝑟𝑟
𝐷𝐷 > 𝑉𝑉 Value of the Loan Decreases
100 0
𝑟𝑟
𝐷𝐷 < 𝑉𝑉 Value of the Loan Increases
100 0
Example:
Jane borrows $50000 to buy some shares. Jane negotiates an interest-only loan for this amount, at
an interest rate of 9% per annum, compounding monthly. What is the monthly amount Jane will be
required to pay?
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Annuities: form of investment, entitling the investors to a series of regular payments
Example:
Reza plans to travel overseas for 6 months. He invests $12000 in annuity that earns interest at the
rate of 6% per annum, providing him with a monthly income of $2035 per month for 6 months.
where Vn is the value of the annuity after n payments have been received.
Example:
Properties of annuities
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Perpetuities: type of annuity where the payment is the same as interest
Example:
Elizabeth invests her superannuation payout of $500000 into a perpetuity that will provide a
monthly income without using any of the initial investment.
If the interest rate for the perpetuity is 6% per annum, what monthly payment will Elizabeth
receive?
Annuity investments: compound interest investment with regular additions to the principal
• Increase the rate at which investment grows by making additional payments on a regular basis
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Example:
Nor plans to travel overseas when she finishes her VCE. She has already saved $1200 and thinks that
she can save an additional $50 each month that she plans to add to her savings account. The account
pays interest at a rate of 3% per annum, compounding monthly.
Example:
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