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PROBABILITY
Definition:

In Mathematical point of view probability understood as

the study that deals with uncertainties.

UNCERTANITIES - Means something that may occur but we

are not assured.

On other way around we may define probability as

The branch of Mathematics or Statistics which deals with

mathematical prediction of happening and non-happening of

events.

- Thus generally, the probability is the study of chances.

For instance:
(I) When Simba and Yanga play a football match, one can

predict whether, either Simba or Yanga will win the game or

the game will end in draw.

(II) When a coin is rolled, one can predict whether Head

(H) or Tail (T) appears.

(III) When a die is tossed, one can predict whether 1, 2, 3,

4, 5 or 6 appears.
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OBJECTS USED IN PROBABILITY

1. COIN

This is the object which contains two faces, Head (H) and

Tail (T), consider the diagram below

Front side is of Head

And

Back side is of tail

2. D I E.
This is the object which contains six faces numbered
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6
Consider the diagram below.

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03. TETRAHEDRAL DIE

This is the object (die) which contains four faces numbered
1, 2, 3 and 4.
Consider the diagram below

04. CARDS
These are objects which occur together in a box of 52
playing cards and they become 54 cards including jokers.

IMPORTANT FACTS ON CARDS

(i) A pack of cards consists of four (4) suits Diamonds,

Hearts, Spades and Clubs.

(ii) Each suit consists of 13 cards of which nine (9) cards

numbered 2, 3, 4… 10 and an Ace (A), a King (K) and Queen

(Q) and a Jack (J).

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(iii) Colour of Diamonds and Hearts is RED and that of

Spades and Clubs is BLACK.

(iv)Each suit consists of three (3) pictured cards (King,

Queen, Jack) Hence there are 3X4=12 cards called court
cards or court in a normal pack of 52 cards.
Consider the table below

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TERMS USED IN CARDS

The mostly pronounced terms predominated in
probability of playing cards are
01. Diamonds 06. Ace (A)

02. Hearts 07. King (K)

03. Spades 08. Queen (Q)

04. Clubs 09. Jack (J)

05. Suits 10. Courts

IMPORTANT TERMS USED IN PROBABILITY.

01. PROBABILITY (RANDOM) EXPERIMENT

This is an action which is done to find mathematically

how the probability of a certain event to occur.

Examples of probability experiment are:

(I) Rolling a coin

(II) Tossing a die

(III) Playing cards

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02. PROBABILITY SET (Sample Space Set)

This is the set which contains all possible outcomes of
the probability experiment

For instance

(I) When a die is tossed

The probability set is * +

(II) When a coin is rolled,

The probability set is * +

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03. SAMPLE POINT

Is the number of element of sample space.

04. EVENT SET

This is the set of specific outcomes which occur after

doing or performing probability experiment.

It is denoted by E.

For instance.

(I) when a die is tossed and an even number appears, then

the event set is * +

(II) When a coin is rolled and head appears, then event set

is * +

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TYPES OF EVENTS.
01. SIMPLE EVENT (Elementary event)

This is the event which has only single element of the

sample space.

Example:
* +
* + * + * + * + * + Are the simple event.

02. COMPOUND EVENT

This is the point occurrence of two or more events.

Example:
* + * +
* +
* +* +* + * +* + are the compound events.

03. SURE EVENT (Certain event)

This is the event whose probability of occurrence is

100%, For instance

When a coin is rolled, the probability of either Head (H) or

Tail (T) to occur is 100%.
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04. IMPOSSIBLE EVENT (Uncertain event)

This is the event whose probability of occurrence is 0%

For instance

When a die is tossed, the probability of Head (H) to occur is 0%

05. EQUALY LIKELY EVENTS.

The chance of happening any event is the same .

None of them expected to occur in preference to the other

Eg. When a coin is tossed each outcome head or tail is

equally likely to occur.

06. EXHAUSTIVE EVENT

If two events A and B are such that , Then

( ) and the event A and B are said to be

exhaustive.

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CLASSES OF PROBABILITY.

There are about two classes of Probability

(I) Objective probability and (II) Subjective probability

(I) OBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

Is the probability based on game of chances where all

outcomes have equal opportunity happening

For example

Rolling a die, tossing a coin etc

PARTS OF OBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

(A) CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

This is the ratio of the number of elements in the event

set to the number of elements in the sample space.

( )
( )
( )

OR
( )
( )
( )

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(B) RELATIVE FREQUENCY PROBABILITY

(EMPIRICAL APPROACH)

This is the ratio of the number of times an outcomes on

outcome has occurred to the total number of times or

trials of the experiment.

( ) ( )
( ) OR ( )
∑ ∑

Generally, for the events then ∑ ( )

(II) SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

This is the probability determined on basis of one’s belief,

experience, knowledge and other judgmental criteria

Subjective probability on the same event may differ

from one person to another

Example.

Probability that it will snow on Christmas day next year

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AXIOMS (RULES) OF PROBABILITY

All probabilities obey the following rules called basic

rules or properties of probability

01. RULE OF RANGE

Let: A be an event, then ( )

If ( ) , this is impossible or null event.

If ( ) , this is certain or sure event

02. RULES OF COMPLEMENT.

Let: A and B be the event then

(I) ( ) ( ̅)

(II) ( ) (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅)

(III) ( ) (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅)

PROOF:
Consider the figure below

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( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ̅)

( ) ( ̅) Proved

03. RULE OF UNION

Let: A and B be two events

Then, ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Again, for three events A, B and C

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

However, the rule of union (additional law) of probability

depends on whether the events under consideration are

I. Mutually exclusive event

II. Non-mutual exclusive events

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PROOF
Consider the events A and B below

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Proved

04. DE MORGAN’S RULE

Let the event be A and B

(I). (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) (̅ ̅) (II). (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) (̅ ̅).

Again, for three events A, B and C

(I). (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) (̅ ̅ ̅)
(II). (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) (̅ ̅ ̅)
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PROOF
Consider the figure below

Recall,
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )

(̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) (̅ ̅). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Proved.

05. RULE OF TOTAL PROBABILITY

- Consider the events A and B.

I. ( ) ( ) ( ̅)

II. ( ) ( ) (̅ )

III. (̅) (̅ ̅) (̅ )

IV. (̅) (̅ ̅) ( ̅)

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PROOF
I. Consider the figure below

Recall

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ̅)

06. RULE OF DIFFERENCE

- Consider the event A and B

( ) ( ̅)

( ) ( )

( ) ( )
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PROOF

Consider the figure below

Recall,

( ) ( )

( ) ( )
( ) ( )

( ) ( )

( ) ( ̅ ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Proved

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MUTUAL AND NON-MUTUAL EXCLUSIVE EVENTS.

(I) MUTUAL EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they do

not occur together
Consider the event A and B below

Recall,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
But

( ) * +, ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
Additional (Union) law of probability for mutual exclusive events.
Again, for three events A, B and C.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
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(II). NON–MUTUAL EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Two events are said to be non-mutually exclusive if they do
occur together.
Consider the events A and B below.

Recall,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Additional (Union) law of probability for non-mutual
exclusive events, But
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
This is Multiplication law of probability

However, the multiplication law of probability is operated

under two essential conditions namely as:
I. Condition for independent events

II.Condition for dependent events

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RANDOM SELECTION

Random selection is the process of taking objects from

the container on the basis of

(I). With replacement

(II).Without replacement.

And may either be one after another or same at a time.

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WORKED EXAMPLES

01. If you toss a die once, find the probability of obtaining

odd or even number. State the type of event.

Solution.
When tossing a die once, * +, ( )

Let:

A – be the event that the number is odd.

B – be the event that the number is even.

* +, ( )

( )

* +, ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
But, * +, ( ) , THUS, ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ⁄ ⁄
( )
( )
Hence, the type of event is mutual exclusive or sure event.
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02. If you toss a coin twice

Let A – represents the event that the first is head
Let B – represents the event that head or tail.
Are A and B independent?
Solution
Tossing a coin twice

* + ( )
* + ( )
( )
( )
( )
* + ( ) .
( )
( )
( )
* + ( ) .
( )
( )
( )
.

For A and B to be independent

( ) ( ) ( )
Yes: A and B are independent.
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03. A die is tossed 50 times; the following table gives six

numbers and their frequency of occurrence.

Number 1 2 3 4 5 6

Frequency 7 9 8 7 9 10

Find the probability of even number to occur.

Solution

Given

∑ , Event * +
( )
( )
From ( )
∑

The probability is .

04. The table below shows the scores obtained when a die

is thrown 60 times. Find the probability of a number 3 to

occur.

Scores, 1 2 3 4 5 6

Frequency, 10 9 8 15 9 9

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Solution
From the given table
∑ , * +
( )
( )
From, ( ) ∑

The probability is

05. If A and B are independent events prove that, the

following events are also independent

(a) and ̅ (b) ̅ and ̅

Solution
Since A and B are independent
Thus, ( ) ( ) ( )

(a) and ̅
( ̅) ( ) (̅)

From L.H.S, ( ̅) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( ( ))

From, ( ) (̅) , Thus ( ) (̅)

( ) (̅)
and ̅ are also independent
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(b) Given
̅ and ̅

(̅ ̅) ( ̅) (̅)
From L.H.S
(̅ ̅) (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅)
(̅ ̅) ( )
( ( ) ( ) ( ))

( ) ( ) ( )

( ̅) ( ) ( ) ( )

( ̅) ( )( ( ))

( ̅) ( ) (̅)

( ̅)( ( ))

( ̅) (̅)

̅ and ̅ are also independent.

06. A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52

playing cards. Find the probability that the card is

(a) A club or a diamond

(b) A club or a king

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Solution
* +
( )
Let, – be the event that the card is a Club
– be the event that the card is a Diamond
– be the event that the card is a King
(a) A club or a diamond
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
But
( ) , ( ) , ( )

( )

( )

( )

The probability is
(b) A club or a king
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
But

( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ,

The probability is

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07. In a group of 20 adults, 4 out of the 7 women and 2 out

of the 13 men wear glasses. What is the probability that a

person chosen at random from the group is a woman or

someone who wears glasses?

Solution

Given
( )

Let, be the event that a person chosen is a woman

be the event that a person chosen is someone

who wears glasses.

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

But

( ) ( ) ( )

( )

The probability is

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08. Given that A and B are mutually exclusive events such

that ( ) ( ) .

Find (a) (̅ )(b) (̅ )

Solution
Given
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
( ) , Thus

(a) (̅ ) ( ) ( )
(̅ )

(b) ( ̅ )

From, ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
(̅ ) ( ̅) ( ) (̅ )
( ) ( ) ( ( ) ( ))
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )

(̅ )

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09.Two events A and B are independent. It is given that the

probability that both A and B occur is and the probability

that neither A nor B occurs is . Find the probability of

occurrence of A.

Solution
Given
( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )

Again, (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅)

Let, ( ) ( )

Hence,

( )

( ) ( )

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(i)

Also

(̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) ( )

( ( ) ( ) ( ))

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( )

⁄ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ii)
Therefore

( )

( ) ( )

( )( )

( ) ( )

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10. Given that A and B are independent, B and C are also

independent, A and C are mutually exclusive events if

( ) ⁄ , ( ) ⁄ and ( ) ⁄ .

Find (a) ( ̅) ( ) ( ̅)

Solution

Given

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( )

( )

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( ) ( ̅) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )

( ̅)

(b) ( ̅) ( ) ( ̅) ( ̅)

( ) ( ) ( ( ) ( ))

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )

( ̅)

11. An ordinary die and a fair coin are thrown together.

Find the probability of obtaining.
(a) A head and a 2 (b) A tail and a 7
(c) A head and even number

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Solution

By using tree diagram

* +, ( )

(a) A head and a 2

* + ( )

( )
( )
( )

The probability is,

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(b) A tail and a 7

* +

( )

( )

The probability is, 0

(c) A head and even number

* +

( )

( )
( )
( )

The probability is, ⁄

Try to Do this example

10. A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52

playing cards. Find the probability that the card is

(a) A seven (b) not an even

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY.
This is the probability of occurrence of one event given
that another event has already occurred.
Consider the conditional probability of event A, given event B
( )
( ⁄ )
( )
Where, ( )

Again, the conditional probability of event B, given event A is.

( )
( ⁄ )
( )
Where, ( )

Furthermore
( ⁄ ) Probability of occurrence of A, when B has already
occurred.
( ⁄ ) Probability of occurrence of A, when B is taken as the
sample space.
( ⁄ ) Probability of occurrence of A with respect to B
( ⁄ ) Probability of occurrence of B, when A has already
occurred
( ⁄ ) Probability of occurrence of B, when A is taken as
the sample space
( ⁄ ) Probability of occurrence of B with respect to A
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QUESTIONS

12. If ( ) ( ) ( ) Find
̅
(a) ( ⁄ ) (b) ( ⁄ ) (c) . ⁄̅/ (d) ( ⁄ ̅)

Solution
Given
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
(a) ( ⁄ )
( )

( ⁄ ) ⁄

( )
(b) ( ⁄ )
( )

( ⁄ ) ⁄

( ̅)
(c) . ⁄̅/
( ̅)
( ) ( )
. ⁄̅/
( )

. ⁄̅/

. ⁄̅ / ⁄

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̅ (̅ ̅)
(d) ( ⁄̅ )
(̅)

̅ (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅)
( ⁄̅ )
( )

̅ ( )
( ⁄̅ )
( )

̅ ( ( ) ( ) ( ))
( ⁄̅ )
( )

̅ ( ) ( ) ( )
( ⁄̅ )
( )

̅
( ⁄̅ )

̅
( ⁄̅ )

̅
( ⁄̅ ) ⁄ .

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13. Given that a heart is picked at random from a pack of 52

playing cards, find the probability that it is a picture card.
Solution
Given
* +
( )
( )
. ⁄ /
( )
⁄
⁄
⁄
The probability is ⁄

14. When a die is tossed an odd number appears; what is the

probability that the number is prime?

Solution
Given
* +, ( )
Let, be the event that the number is prime

be the event that the number is odd.

( )
( ⁄ )
( )
But, * +, * +, ( )

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( )
( ) ⁄ ⁄
( )

( ) ⁄

* +, ( )

( ) ⁄ ⁄

( ) ⁄

⁄
Hence, ( ⁄ ) ⁄
⁄

The probability is ⁄ .
15.In a certain college, 25% of the students failed
Mathematics, 15% of the students failed chemistry and 10%
of the students failed both Mathematics and Chemistry. A
student is selected at random.
(a) If he failed Chemistry, what is the probability that he

failed Mathematics?

(b) If he failed Mathematics, what is the probability that he

failed Chemistry?

(c)What is the probability that he failed Chemistry or

Mathematics?
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Solution

Let, be the event that he failed Mathematics

be the event that he failed Chemistry

( ) ( ) ( )

( )
(a) ( ⁄ )
( )

The probability is, ⁄

( )
(b) ( ⁄ )
( )

The probability is, ⁄

(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

The probability is ⁄

16. A box contains 10 balls of which 6 are black and 4 are white.

If 2 balls are drawn from the box without replacement. Find

the probability of obtaining

(a) Balls of the same colour (b) Balls of different colour

(c)The first ball is white and the second ball is black.
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Solution
Given
( ) , ( ) , ( )

(a) Balls of the same colour

P( or ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ )

( ) ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄

( ) ⁄ ⁄

( ) ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

(b) Balls of different colours ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ )

( ) ( ) ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄

( ) ( ) ⁄ ⁄

( ) ( ) ⁄

( ) ( ) ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

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(c) The first ball is white and the second ball is black

( )

( ) ( ) ( ⁄ )

( ) ⁄ ⁄

( ) ⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

17. Juma and Ally went for an interview for a certain post. The

probability that Juma will win the post is ⁄ and the probability

that Ally will win the post is ⁄ . Find the probability that:

(a) Both will win the post

(b) At least one will win the post

(c) Neither of them will win the post

Solution

Let; be the event that Juma will win the post

be the event that Ally will win the post

( ) ⁄ , ( ) ⁄

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(a) Both will win the post ( )

( )
( ) ( )

⁄ ⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

(b) At least one will win the post ( ̅ ̅ )

( ̅ ̅ )

( ̅) ( ̅ ) ( )

( ) ( ̅) ( ̅) ( ) ( ) ( )

⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

(c) Neither of them will win the post.( ̅ ̅)

( ̅ ̅)

( ̅) ( ̅)

⁄ ⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

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INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence
of one does not affect the occurrence of the other.

Recall
( )
( ⁄ )
( )
( )
( ⁄ )
( )
( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( )

For independent events A and B

( ⁄ ) ( )

( ⁄ ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
This is the condition for independent events

TO PROVE THE CONDITION FOR INDEPENDENT

EVENTS
Consider the events A and B
Let may happen in ways and fail in ways
may happen in ways and fail in ways
( ) ( )

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Now, there are four possibilities

Number of ways that both A and B may happen

Number of ways that A may happen and B may fail

Number of ways that A may fail and B may happen

Number of ways that both A and B may fail

Hence,

Total number of ways:

( ) ( )
( )( )
Therefore:

The probability that both A and B may happen (occur) is

( )
( )( )

( )

( ) ( ) ( ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .Proved

Two events are said to be dependent if the occurrence of

one does affect the occurrence of the other.
For dependent events A and B

( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( )

And this Is the condition for dependent event

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WORKED EXAMPLES
18.In a family of 3 children Let A represent the event that a

child born is of both sex. Let B represent the event that we

obtain at most one girl. Are A and B independent?

If the family has 2 children, show that A and B are dependent

Solution
A family has 3 children

* +, ( )

* +, ( )

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( )
( )
( )

( ) ⁄

* +, ( )

( )
( )
( )

( )

* +, ( )

( )
( )
( )

( )

For A and B to be independent

( ) ( ) ( )

⁄ ⁄ ⁄

⁄ ⁄

Yes A and B are independent.

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Also, If the family has 2 children.

* +, ( )

* +, ( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) ⁄

* +, ( )
( )
( ) ⁄
( )
* +, ( )
( )
( ) ⁄
( )
( ) ⁄

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For A and B to be dependent

( ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ )

( ) ( ) ( ⁄ )

⁄ ⁄ ⁄

⁄ ⁄

A and B are dependent

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BAYES’ THEOREM
Bayes’ theorem can be explained by using the following rules

01. Rule of total probability

02. Rule of conditional probability

Recall,
( )
( ⁄ )
( )
( ⁄ ) ( )
( )
( ⁄ ) ( )
( ) (̅ )
( ⁄ ) ( )
( ⁄ )
( ⁄ ) ( ) . ⁄̅ / ( ̅)

Bayes’ theorem for two events A and B.

Generally, for the events A, B, C and D: Bayes’ theorem

states that:

( ⁄ ) ( )
( ⁄ )
( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( )

Bayes’ theorem for four events A, B, C and D

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QUESTIONS

19. Three girls, Aisha, Betha and Cathy, pack biscuit in a

factory. From the batch allotted to them Aisha packs 55%,

Betha 30% and Cathy 15%. The probability that Aisha

breaks some biscuits in a packet is 0.7 and the respective

probabilities for Betha and Cathy are 0.2 and 0.1. What is

the probability that a packet with broken biscuits found by

the checker was packed by Aisha?

Solution

Let that

be the event that the packet was packed by Aisha

be the event that the packet was packed by Betha

be the event that the packet was packed by Cathy

be the event that the packet contains broken biscuits.

( )
( )
( )
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )

Required, ( ⁄ ) ?
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By using Bayes’ theorem

( ⁄ ) ( )
( ⁄ )
( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

The probability is,

20. A bag contains 3 yellow discs and 1 blue disc where as a

box contains 2 yellow and 3 blue discs. A card is drawn

from a pack of cards if this card is a court card the disc is

removed from the bag otherwise the disc is removed from

the box

(a) Find the probability that the disc drawn is yellow

(b) Given that the disc drawn is blue, find the probability

that it came from the bag.

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Solution
Let, be the event that the disc drawn is blue
be the event that the disc drawn is yellow
be the event that the card is a court card
,

(a) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ) ( ⁄ )

⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

( )
(b) ( ⁄ )
( )

( ) ( ⁄ )
( ) ( ̅ )
( ) ( ⁄ )
( ) ( ⁄ ) ( ̅) . ⁄ ̅/

⁄ ⁄
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄

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Alternatively

( )
( ⁄ )
( )

( ) ( ⁄ )
( ̅)

( ) ( ⁄ )
( )

⁄ ⁄
⁄

⁄ ⁄
⁄

The probability is, ⁄

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FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF
COUNTING
Generally,
If one event can occur in ways, the second event in
ways, the third event in ways, and an event in ways,
then the whole set can occur in: , -

WORKED EXAMPLES

21. Among the numbers 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, If three numbers

are drawn at random

(i). How many numbers greater than 400 will be formed if

the digits may repeat in the same numeral?

(ii). Repeat (i) above if the digits may not repeat in the

same numeral?

(iii). Find the probability of obtaining a number greater

than 400, if the digits may not repeat in the same

numeral?

(iv). Repeat (iii) above if the digits may repeat in the same

numeral.

(v). Compare (iii) and (iv) above.

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Solution

Given numbers:

(i). Numbers greater than 400, digits may repeat

Position 1st 2nd 3rd

Chance 3 5 5

Number of ways

ways,

(ii). Numbers greater than 400, digits may not repeat

Position 1st 2nd 3rd

chance 3 4 3

Number of ways

Ways

(iii). Probability of obtaining a number greater than 400;

Digits may not repeat

Sample space

Position 1st 2nd 3rd

Chances 5 4 3

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( )
Total number of ways 60 ways.

Event set

Position 1st 2nd 3rd

Chances 3 4 3

( )

( )
From, ( ) ( )

⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

(iii). Probability of obtaining a number greater than 400, digits

may repeat.
Sample space
Position 1st 2nd 3rd
Chances 5 5 5

( )
Ways.

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Event set

Position 1st 2nd 3rd

Chances 3 5 5

( )

Ways

( )
From, ( ) ( )

⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

(iv). From (iii) and (iv)

⁄ ⁄

(iii) = (iv)

22. Two digits are chosen from 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 at a time without

repetition. Find the probability that

(a) The first digit selected is odd.

(b) Both digits selected are odd.

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Solution
Given, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Sample space
Position 1st 2nd
Chances 5 4

( )
(a). The first digit selected is odd.

Event set

Position 1st 2nd

Chances 3 4

( )
( )
From, ( ) ( )

⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

(b) .Both digits selected are odd

Event set
Position 1st 2nd
Chances 3 2

( )

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( )
From, ( ) ( )

⁄ ⁄

The probability is, ⁄

23. (a) Four-digits number is to be formed using the digits

0, 1, 2, 3, 6 and 9 without repeating a digit. How many ways

different numbers will be formed?

(b) One-four digit number in (a) above is chosen at random,

what is the probability of getting a number

(i). Greater than 4000?

(ii). Between 2000 and 6000 and divisible by 5?

Solution

(a). Given,

Position 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Chances 5 5 4 3

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(b) From (a) above

( )
(i). Probability of obtaining a number greater than 4000

Event set

Position 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Chances 2 5 4 3

( )
( )
( ) ⁄
( )
The probability is, ⁄

(ii). Probability of obtaining a number between 2000 and

6000 and divisible by 5.

Event set

Position 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Chances 2 4 3 1

( )

( )
( ) ⁄
( )

The probability is, ⁄

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24. From 100 to 1000 exclusively, how many

(a) Odd number will be formed?

(b). Even numbers will be formed?

Solution

Consider the digits,

(a). Odd numbers to be formed

Position 1st 2nd 3rd

Chances 9 10 5

(b). Even numbers to be formed

Position 1st 2nd 3rd

Chances 9 10 5

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25. Consider the letters A, B, C, D, E and F. If four letters

are drawn at random without repetition, find the

probability of obtaining letters selected to be consonant.

Solution

Given, A, B, C, D, E, F

Sample space

Position 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Chances 6 5 4 3

( )
Event set

Position 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Chances 4 3 2 1

( )

( )
( ) ⁄
( )

The probability is, ⁄ .

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THE PRINCIPLE OF PERMUTATION AND

COMBINATION.

PERMUTATION (Arrangement)

This is the arrangement of the number of items taken

from many items in which the order matters.

Consider the letters A, B, C which are to be arranged as

a group of two letters then the arrangement are

These are 6 arrangements

Hence
( )( )( ) ( )
( )( )
( )( )( )
( )

( )
Therefore,

The number of ways of arranging “r” objects from “n”

distinct objects written as is given by ( )

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Note:

Generally, if there are “n” objects with alike, alike and

so on, then there are: ways of arranging

these objects.

Hence

WORKED EXAMPLES

26. In how many ways can the letters of the word NAME be

arranged by taking two letters at a time?

27. In how many ways can the letters of the word

BANYAMULENGE be arranged?

28. In how many ways do the letters of the word SODA be

arranged?

29. In how many ways do the letters of the word PROBABILITY

be arranged?

30. Prove that

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Solution 24

N, A, M, E,

From, ( )

( )

This can be done in 12 ways.

Solution 25

B, A, N, Y, A, M, U, L, E, N, G, E

, , ,

From

This can be done in ways

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Solution 26

S, O, D, A,

From, ,

This can be done in 24 ways.

Solution 27

P, R, O, B, A, B, I, L, I, T, Y

From,

This can be done in ways

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Solution 28

Consider the arrangement of objects from distinct

objects
()

Also, ( )

( )

But, ( ( ))

Proved

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ARRANGEMENT OF THE NUMBER OF ITEMS

(OBJECTS) IN CIRCULAR WAY.

Suppose four people A, B, C and D who are to be seated at

a circular (round) table. Hence the arrangements are the

same. So, for the number of different arrangements, we fix

A, then consider the number of ways of arranging B, C and D.

Therefore:

01. The number of ways of arranging unlike objects in

circular way when clockwise and anticlockwise arrangements
are different is given by:

WORKED EXAMPLES
31(A). Four men Peter, Roger, Smith and Thomas are to be

seated at a circular table. In how many ways can this be done?

Solution 29

( ), ( )

This can be done in 6 ways

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COMBINATION (Selection)

This is the selection of the number of items taken from

many items in which the order does not matter.

Consider a group of two letters from the letters A, B, C,

then the selections (number of combinations) are: AB, AC, BC

These are 3 – selection or groups

The number of ways of choosing a set or combination of

objects from distinct t objects is given by

( )

( )
Note: . /

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WORKED EXAMPLES

31(B). Evaluate ( )

Solution

. /
( )

( )

( )

32. A committee of 5 boys and 6 girls is to be chosen from

7 boys and 9 girls. In how many ways can this be done?

Solution

This can be done in ways

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33. In a class of 10 pupils, 6 are boys and 4 are girls. If 3

pupils are taken at random from the class. Find the probability

that

a) At least 2 are boys

b) All are boys
c) One boy obtained
Solution

( )
a) At least 2 are boys { }

( )

( )
( ) ⁄ ⁄
( )

The probability is, ⁄

b) All are boys {BBB}

( )

( )
( )
( )

The probability is, ⁄

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c) One boy obtained{BGG}

( )

( )
( )
( )

The probability is, ⁄

34. A box contains 3 white, 2 yellow and 2 green balls. If 3

balls are drawn at random, find the probability that

a) Exactly two balls are white

b) At least two balls are white

Solution
( )

a) Exactly two balls are white { }

( )

( )
( )
( )

The probability is, ⁄ .

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b) At least two balls are white

* }
( )
( )
( )
( )
The probability is, ⁄

35. A problem of probability is given to three students A, B

and C whose chances of solving it are ⁄ , ⁄ and ⁄

respectively. What is the probability that the problem will

be solved?

Solution 35

Given: ( ) ⁄ ( ) ⁄ ( ) ⁄

Required: ( ) (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅)
(̅ ̅ ̅)

( ( ̅) (̅) ( ̅ ))

.( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )/

.( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )/ ⁄

The probability that the problem will be solved is ⁄

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36.A student takes his examination in four subjects A, B, C

and D. He estimates his chances of passing in A as ⁄ , in B

as ⁄ , in C as ⁄ and in D as ⁄ . To qualify he must past in

A and at least two other subjects. What is the probability

that he qualifies?

Solution 36

Let, be the event that he qualifies

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

( ) ( ̅ ̅ ̅ )

( ) , ( ̅) ( ̅ ) (̅ ) ( )-

But, ( ) ⁄ ( ) ⁄ ( ) ⁄ ( ) ⁄

( ) ⁄ 0. ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ / ( ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ) . ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ / . ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ /1

⁄ ⁄

( ) ⁄

The probability that he qualified is ⁄

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Try to do this Example.

36. A bag contains 5 red, 4 white and 3 green balls. If 3 balls

are drawn at random, find the probability of obtaining

a) Balls of the same colour.

b) Balls of different colour.

SEE FOR THE

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

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MTEGETWA EDUCATION CENTER

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THE SCHOOL CALENDER
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For Any problem you may consult us

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KINDLY ASK CONVINIENT PERSON TO DIRECT YOU
TO THE LOCATION OF MSIMBAZI MSETO PRIMARY
SCHOOL AREA. AS YOU ARE NEARLY TO THE SCHOOL,
YOU WILL OBSERVE A FOOTBALL PITCH FAMOUSLY
KNOWN AS MSIMBAZI ROVERS. TO THE NORTH OF
THE PITCH THE CENTER IS CLEARLY OBSERVED.

THE PROGRAMMES HELD AT MSIMBAZI ARE

UNMATCHED AND YOU WILL EXPERIENCE THE
DIFFERENCE.
WITH MY PLEASING TEACHING I ASSURE YOU TO
RISE TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL LEVEL

“YOU ARE WARMLY WELCOME”

MR MABUGA’S
+255 (0) 655 138 139, +255 (0) 689 831 831, 78
Email:mnenge.mabuga@gmail.