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    Climate Outlook

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    brajeshb.railway

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    Climate Outlook

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    Climate_Outlook

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    Climate Outlook

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    National Weather Service July 2024 – Sept 2024

    Central Region Climate Outlook


    Sunday, June 23, 2024 5:48 PM

    Important One Month Temperature Outlook


    July 2024 Temperature
    Messages:
    El Niño Advisory Ends
    & Precipitation Outlooks
    ● Above-normal temperatures
    Above-normal temperatures
    are favored across all of
    are favored during July and
    Central Region. The highest
    from July through September
    probabilities (70-80%) are in
    for all of Central Region.
    southeast Lower Michigan,
    Colorado, Wyoming, and the One Month Precipitation Outlook
    ENSO-neutral conditions are
    Nebraska panhandle, and
    present. La Niña is favored to
    small parts of southwest
    develop during July-September
    South Dakota and northwest
    (65% chance) and persist into
    Kansas.
    the Northern Hemisphere
    ● Drier-than-normal
    winter 2024-25 (85% chance
    conditions are favored across
    during November-January).
    most of NWS Central Region.
    The highest probabilities (50-
    60%) are across western
    Seasonal Drought Outlook Wyoming.
    Three Month Temperature Outlook
    Jul-Aug-Sept 2024
    Temperature &
    Precipitation Outlooks
    ● Above-normal temperatures
    are favored across all of Central
    Region and much of the CONUS.
    The highest probabilities (60-
    ● Drought development is likely 80%) clip western Colorado. Three Month Precipitation Outlook
    from southeast Iowa and ● Drier than normal conditions
    northwest Missouri east into the are favored (33-60%) in
    Ohio River Valley, western Colorado and Wyoming east
    Dakotas, much of Kansas and into the Dakotas, and into much
    Colorado, and parts of Nebraska. of the Central Plains. Near equal
    chances for above-below-or
    ● Drought is expected to persist near normal precipitation are
    in parts of southern Colorado expected across the remainder
    and southern Kansas. of Central Region.

    Building a Weather-Ready Nation


    For more info, contact: shawn.rossi@noaa.gov Click to evaluate this product
    National Weather Service July 2024 – Sept 2024
    Central Region Climate Outlook
    Sunday, June 23, 2024 5:48 PM
    ENSO Status: IRI/CPC Probabilistic ENSO
    La Niña Watch Forecast/Plumes
    Forecast Probability of Niño-3.4 Index Exceeding
    Season ≤ -0.5°C ≤ -1.0°C ≤ -1.5°C ≤ -2.0°C
    JAS 65% 22% 3% ~0%
    ASO 75% 37% 9% 1%
    SON 81% 48% 17% 3%
    OND 84% 55% 24% 6%
    NDJ 85% 58% 27% 7%
    DJF 81% 51% 20% 5%
    JFM 73% 38% 11% 2%

    Website: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_
    monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php

    The values are based on the analysis published in:

    L'Heureux, M. L., Tippett, Michael K., Takahashi, Ken, Barnston,


    Anthony G., Becker,
    Discussion of whatEmilyyou
    J., Bell, Geraldto
    decided D.,include
    Di Liberto, Tom E.,
    above.
    Gottschalck, Jon, Halpert, Michael S., Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Johnson, ● ENSO-neutral conditions are present.
    Could be from the call, or just something of interest
    Nathaniel C., Xue, Yan, and Wang, Wanqiu, 2019: Strength
    that pertains toNiño-Southern
    this monthsOscillation.
    outlooks.Wea.Stretch box to La Niña is favored to develop during July-
    Outlooks for the El Forecasting,
    make
    34, it large
    165-175, if you would like to include more text.
    https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1. September (65% chance) and persist into
    the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25
    (85% chance during November-January).
    Useful Links/Info:
    News from Climate.gov Other Teleconnection Effects
    Latest ENSO Blog from Climate.gov ● The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has
    Sea Surface Temperatures from the Climate Prediction been inactive during the first half of June,
    Center with the RMM-based index residing in the
    Latest ENSO Discussion from the Climate Prediction Center unit circle.
    Drought Information from the US Drought Monitor ● The ECMWF and GEFS ensembles depict
    Interactive GIS Mapping from NCEI (Anomalies/Rankings) some reorganization of the MJO across the
    Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) – Account registration Western Hemisphere and propagating to the
    required Indian Ocean by early July, although the
    NWS Forecast Maps from Western Region phase speed may be more indicative of a
    Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW).

    Building a Weather-Ready Nation


    For more info, contact: shawn.rossi@noaa.gov Click to evaluate this product

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