Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate Over Major Crop Areas

Northern Hemisphere:
Weather & Climate over Major

Crop Areas
Update prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
2 May 2011
For Real-time information:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
Outline
Highlights
ENSO Current Status
MJO Current Status
Monsoons Current Status
Northern Hemisphere Circulation
Rainfall & Temperature Patterns
NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
Forecast Verification
ENSO Current Status
General Summary:
La Nia conditions continued

across the equatorial Pacific.
Negative sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies
persist across the central
equatorial Pacific Ocean, while
SSTs are now above-average
in the eastern equatorial
Pacific Ocean.
During the last 4-weeks (3 30 Apr 2011), Atmospheric circulation
equatorial SSTs were generally 0.5C or more anomalies associated with La
below average between 170E and 140W, Nia remain significant.
while above-average temperatures have
emerged in the eastern Pacific. A transition to ENSO-neutral
conditions is expected by June
2011.
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
MJO Current Status
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution The MJO signal Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
remained weak
during the
previous week.
Strengthening of
the MJO signal is
expected during
week 1, with a
The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily large forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days
values of the principal components from the two spread in week 2. and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast
leading modes
System (GEFS) for the next 15 days
The triangular areas indicate the location of the
light gray shading: 90% of forecasts
enhanced phase of the MJO
dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of
eastward propagation. Large dot most recent Yellow Lines 20 Individual Members
observation.
Green Line Ensemble Mean
Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO
strength
For more information go to:
Line colors distinguish different months http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
Northern Hemisphere Monsoons
Current Status
North America West Africa East Asia
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: MAY-OCT Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP

The North American Monsoon season During the last 90 days near average During the last 90 days above average
has ended. Precipitation during the rainfall has occurred in west Africa rainfall has occurred in Indonesia.
past 90 days has been near average. near Senegal and Guinea. This is consistent with La Nina
conditions.
Below average rainfall has occurred
in central Africa.
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days
Low-level (~600 m) wind and

temperature anomalies are based
on the NCEP Climate Data
Assimilation Systems (CDAS)
analysis. The patterns of anomalous
temperature and wind at 925-hPa
are usually similar to surface
observations.
Note: Areas with surface pressure

below 925-hPa are masked out.
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days
Rising motion (negative omega,
yellow/red shading), usually
associated with wetter- than-
normal conditions.
Sinking motion (positive omega,
blue shading), usually associated
with drier-than-normal
conditions.
CPC daily gridded precipitation

analysis over land only. The daily
gauge analysis is created on a 0.5
degree lat/lon over the global land
by interpolating gauge observations
from ~30,000 stations.
Canada and US
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns

Temperature Patterns
GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:
Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
Recent Evolution: Rainfall
Last 30 Days
Temperature (C)
Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Anomaly Extreme Minimum

Temperature (C)

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Forecasts from 2 May 2011 Days 1-7
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 2 May 2011 Week 2
Total Anomaly
Mexico and Central America
GFS Forecast
Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
For more information see:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf
Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
Total Anomaly
Eurasia
GFS Forecast
Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
Last 30 Days
Temperature (C)

Temperature (C)

Last 30 Days
Temperature (C)

Total Anomaly
For more information on Global Tropical Hazards see: (updated Tuesday at 1pm)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz.shtml
Total Anomaly
Famine Early Warning System
Network (FEWS)
Meteorological Products for the
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET)
Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS)
Asia Flood Network (AFN)
Funded by the
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Hazards Impacts Assessments for
Central America
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pd
f
Africa
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/africa_hazard.pdf
Afghanistan
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/AFGHANISTAN/afghanistan_hazard.pdf
Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

USDA Crop Information
Major World Crop Areas and Crop Calendars by Month

Climate Profiles
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/M http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars
WCACP

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate Over Major Crop Areas

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Northern Hemisphere:

Weather & Climate over Major

For Real-time information:

ENSO Current Status

MJO Current Status

Monsoons Current Status

Northern Hemisphere Circulation

Rainfall & Temperature Patterns

NCEP/GFS Model Forecast

La Nia conditions continued

Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: MAY-OCT Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

Low-level (~600 m) wind and

Note: Areas with surface pressure

CPC daily gridded precipitation

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns

Anomaly Extreme Minimum

Anomaly Extreme Minimum

For more information see:

Anomaly Extreme Minimum

Anomaly Extreme Minimum

Anomaly Extreme Minimum

Hazards Impacts Assessments for

Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

Major World Crop Areas and Crop Calendars by Month

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