An atmospheric river (AR) is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere.

Other
names for this phenomenon are tropical plume, tropical connection, moisture plume, water vapor surge,
and cloud band.[1][2]

Composite satellite photos of an atmospheric river connecting Asia

to North America in October 2017

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Atmospheric rivers consist of narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport, typically along the boundaries
between large areas of divergent surface air flow, including some frontal zones in association with extratropical
cyclones that form over the oceans.[3][4][5][6] Pineapple Express storms are the most commonly represented and
recognized type of atmospheric rivers; the name is due to the warm water vapor plumes originating over the
Hawaiian tropics that follow various paths towards western North America, arriving at latitudes from California
and the Pacific Northwest to British Columbia and even southeast Alaska.[7][8][9]

In some parts of the world, changes in atmospheric humidity and heat caused by climate change are expected
to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather and flood events caused by atmospheric rivers.
This is expected to be especially prominent in the Western United States and Canada.[10]

Description[edit]

Layered precipitable water imagery of particularly strong

atmospheric rivers on 5 December 2015. The first, caused by Storm Desmond, stretched from
the Caribbean to the United Kingdom; the second originated from the Philippines and crossing
the Pacific Ocean extended to the west coast of North America.

The term was originally coined by researchers Reginald Newell and Yong Zhu of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in the early 1990s to reflect the narrowness of the moisture plumes involved.[3][5][11] Atmospheric
rivers are typically several thousand kilometers long and only a few hundred kilometers wide, and a single one
can carry a greater flux of water than Earth's largest river, the Amazon River.[4] There are typically 3–5 of these
narrow plumes present within a hemisphere at any given time. These have been increasing[12] in intensity
slightly over the past century.

In the current research field of atmospheric rivers, the length and width factors described above in conjunction
with an integrated water vapor depth greater than 2.0 cm are used as standards to categorize atmospheric river
events.[8][13][14][15]

A January 2019 article in Geophysical Research Letters described them as "long, meandering plumes of water
vapor often originating over the tropical oceans that bring sustained, heavy precipitation to the west coasts of
North America and northern Europe."[16]
As data modeling techniques progress, integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is becoming a more common
data type used to interpret atmospheric rivers. Its strength lies in its ability to show the transportation of water
vapor over multiple time steps instead of a stagnant measurement of water vapor depth in a specific air column
(integrated water vapor – IWV). In addition, IVT is more directly attributed to orographic precipitation, a key
factor in the production of intense rainfall and subsequent flooding.[15]

Scale[edit]
Atmospheric river categories[17] hide

Cat Strength Impact Max. IVT[a] Duration

≥500–750 <24 hours

1 Weak Primarily beneficial

24-48
≥250–500
hours

≥750–
<24 hours
1000
Mostly beneficial, also
2 Moderate
hazardous ≥500–750
24-48
hours

≥250–500 >48 hours

≥1000–
<24 hours
1250
Balance of beneficial and
3 Strong
hazardous
≥750– 24-48
1000 hours

≥500–750 >48 hours

≥1250 <24 hours

≥1000– 24-48
Mostly hazardous, also
4 Extreme
beneficial
1250 hours

≥750–
>48 hours
1000

24-48
≥1250
hours
5 Exceptional Primarily hazardous
≥1000 >48 hours

Notes
1. ^ Maximum vertically integrated water vapor transport, 3-hour average,

units of

The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography released a five-level scale in February 2019 to categorize atmospheric rivers, ranging from
"weak" to "exceptional" in strength, or "beneficial" to "hazardous" in impact. The scale was developed by F.
Martin Ralph, director of CW3E, who collaborated with Jonathan Rutz from the National Weather Service and
other experts.[18] The scale considers both the amount of water vapor transported and the duration of the event.
Atmospheric rivers receive a preliminary rank according to the 3-hour average maximum vertically integrated
water vapor transport. Those lasting less than 24 hours are demoted by one rank, while those lasting longer
than 48 hours are increased by one rank.[17]

Examples of different atmospheric river categories include the following historical storms:[18][19]

1. February 2, 2017; lasted 24 hours

2. November 19–20, 2016; lasted 42 hours
3. October 14–15, 2016; lasted 36 hours and produced 5–10 inches of rainfall
4. January 8–9, 2017; lasted 36 hours and produced 14 inches of rainfall
5. December 29, 1996 – January 2, 1997; lasted 100 hours and caused >$1 billion in damage
Typically, the Oregon coast averages one Cat 4 atmospheric river (AR) each year; Washington state averages
one Cat 4 AR every two years; the San Francisco Bay Area averages one Cat 4 AR every three years; and
southern California, which typically experiences one Cat 2 or Cat 3 AR each year, averages one Cat 4 AR
every ten years.[19]

Usage: In practice, the AR scale can be used to refer to "conditions" without reference to the word "category",
as in this excerpt from the CW3E Scripps Twitter feed: "Late-season atmospheric river to bring precipitation to
the high elevations over northern California, western Oregon, and Washington this weekend, with AR 3
conditions forecast over southern Oregon."[20]

Impacts[edit]
Atmospheric rivers have a central role in the global water cycle. On any given day, atmospheric rivers account
for over 90% of the global meridional (north-south) water vapor transport, yet they cover less than 10% of any
given extratropical line of latitude.[4] Atmospheric rivers are also known to contribute to about 22% of total global
runoff.[21]

They are also the major cause of extreme precipitation events that cause severe flooding in many mid-latitude,
westerly coastal regions of the world, including the west coast of North America,[22][23][24][13] Western Europe,[25][26]
[27]
the west coast of North Africa,[5] the Iberian Peninsula, Iran[28] and New Zealand.[21] Equally, the absence of
atmospheric rivers has been linked with the occurrence of droughts in several parts of the world, including
South Africa, Spain and Portugal.[21]

United States[edit]

Water vapor imagery of the eastern Pacific Ocean from the GOES
11 satellite, showing a large atmospheric river aimed across California in December 2010. This
particularly intense storm system produced as much as 26 in (660 mm) of precipitation in California and
up to 17 ft (5.2 m) of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada during December 17–22, 2010.

The inconsistency of California's rainfall is due to the variability in strength and quantity of these storms, which
can produce strenuous effects on California's water budget. The factors described above make California a
perfect case study to show the importance of proper water management and prediction of these storms.[8] The
significance that atmospheric rivers have for the control of coastal water budgets juxtaposed against their
creation of detrimental floods can be constructed and studied by looking at California and the surrounding
coastal region of the western United States. In this region atmospheric rivers have contributed 30–50% of total
annual rainfall according to a 2013 study.[29] The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA) report, released by
the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) on November 23, 2018[30] confirmed that along the U.S.
western coast, landfalling atmospheric rivers "ac