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Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Remote Sensing & GIS Perspective

Article in Journal of the Indian Institute of Science · January 2010

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 REVIEWS
Land use and land cover change
in India: A remote sensing & GIS
prespective
P. S. Roy1 AND Arijit Roy2

Abstract | Land use and land cover change have been among the most important
perceptible changes taking place around us. Although perceptible, the magnitude, variety
and the spatial variability of the changes taking place has made the quantification and
assessment of land use and land cover changes a challenge to scientists. Furthermore, since
most of the land use and land cover changes are directly influenced by human activities,
they rarely follow standard ecological theories. The Remote Sensing and Geographic
Information System has proved to be very important in assessing and analyzing land use
and land cover changes. Satellite-based Remote Sensing, by virtue of its ability to provide
synoptic information of land use and land cover at a particular time and location, has
revolutionized the study of land use and land cover change. The temporal information on
land use and land cover helps identify the areas of change in a region. The use of
Geoinformatics has enabled us to assign spatial connotations to land use land cover
changes, namely, population pressure, climate, terrain, etc which drive these changes. This
has helped scientists to quantify these tools and to predict various scenarios. This article
1
gives a overview of the current trends in land use and land cover changes along with two
Dean, Indian Institute of
Remote Sensing and case studies on the same subject, one case study on geospatial LULC change modeling and
Associate Director
(NRSC), ISRO, 4, Kalidas
one on agent based land use and land cover change modeling.
Road, Dehradun
2
Scientist, National
Remote Sensing Centre,
ISRO, Balanagar, Introduction population growth would eventually outstrip the
Hyderabad Human beings have been altering the face of production capacity of the land. It was only in
psroy13@gmail.com
arijitroy13@gmail.com
the earth for the last few centuries but with the the second half of the 20th century when the
introduction of machines, the land cover of the earth probability of the Malthusian projection seemed to
has changed drastically in the last three centuries. be a reality, that sincere efforts to study the human
The debate about the relationship between human population–environment relation were undertaken.
population dynamics and the availability of natural The Scientific study and analysis of land use and
Keywords: Drivers of change, resources dates back to more than 200 years when land cover change involves a quantitative estimation
LULC change modeling,
Remote Sensing, GIS.
Malthus (1798) put forward his argument that of land use and land cover at a particular location

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REVIEW P. S. Roy and Arijit Roy

and time. In this regard, remote sensing plays a qualitative and quantitative changes in land use and
major role in giving a synoptic view of the spatial land cover. Advances in remote sensing over the past
extent of land use and land cover at a particular few decades now enable repeated observations of
point of time. the earth’s surface (NAP, 2008). With the increase
The Human use of land resources gives rise to in sensor capability in terms of spatial resolution,
“land use” which varies with the purpose it serves, spectral variability and temporal frequency, the
whether it be food production, provision of shelter, minute changes on the earth’s surface can be
recreation, extraction and processing of materials, estimated fairly accurately.
and the biophysical characteristics of the land itself. Land use and land cover changes, apart from
Tropical ecosystems are under continuous threat by changing the physical dimension of the spatial
organic and chemical pollution from agriculture extent of the land use and land cover classes,
and industries and the resultant degradation of the also influence many of the secondary processes
natural resources has taken on an alarming aspect which lead to the eventual degradation of the
ecosystems of the earth (Dregne and Chow, 1992).
(Benidick, 1999). In the developing countries, due
First and foremost, the impact of land use and land
to population pressure and in a bid to extract the
cover changes is the reduction of vegetation cover.
maximum output from the available sources, the
The loss of a vegetation cover, in turn, leads to
impact of degradation can be worse than in other many other deleterious effects on the environment,
countries and adversely affect the land cover of the namely, loss of biodiversity, climate change, changes
region. in radiative forcing, pollution of other natural
Land cover refers to the physical and biological ecosystems with a reduction in their quality, changes
cover over the surface of land, including water, in hydrological regimes, and the list continues
vegetation, bare soil and/or artificial structures (Ellis, (Niyogi, et al. 2009). The secondary impact of land
2007). Land use, on the other hand, has a more use and land cover changes initiates a cascade of
complicated aspect as it involves social sciences effects on the environment and this works in a loop
and management principles and is defined as the to further influence land use and land cover changes.
social and economic purposes and contexts for and To further understand the influence of human
within which lands are managed. Although land beings on the ecosystems of the world, we need to
use and land cover are frequently used together, understand the concept of the ecological footprint
there is a very clear difference between the two. of the human population. An Ecological footprint
While land cover signifies the spatial distribution or the amount of earth we use for maintaining the
of the different land cover classes on the earth’s standard of our living has a tremendous implication
surface, and can be directly estimated qualitatively (Dietz et al., 2007). “Ecological Footprint” a term
as well as quantitatively by remote sensing, land use coined by Wackernagel and Rees (1996) is the
and its changes require the integration of natural land area necessary to sustain current levels of
and social scientific methods to determine which resource consumption and waste discharge by
human activities are occurring in different parts of that population. Assuming that ecosystems are
the landscape, even when the land cover appears to ‘autopoietic’ i.e. self producing to the extent that
be same (Lambin et al., 2001). each living species participate in the production
Land use and land cover change are perhaps of the other species, there are constant fluxes
the most prominent form of global environmental in the ecosystem in terms of energy flow, food
change since they occur at spatial and temporal webs and nutrient cycling. The dynamic nature of
ecosystems is manifested in the form of ecosystem
scales immediately relevant to our daily existence
development and evolution (succession) involving
(CCSP, 2003). Technically, land use and land cover
recycling between producers and consumers and
change mean quantitative changes in areal extent
highlighting the interdependence among the
(increase or decrease) of a given type of land ecosystem components. This resource analysis tool
use and land cover respectively. Land use and helps in understanding underlying questions of
land cover change are a manifestation of forces sustainability. It measures the extent to which
both anthropogenic and environmental – climate humanity is using the nature’s resources. When
driven factors (Liu et al, 2009). The changes in humanity’s ecological resource demand exceeds
land use in various spatial and temporal domains what nature can continuously supply, we move into
are the material expressions, and also indicate what is termed as ecological overshoot (Wakrangal
environmental and human dynamics and their et al., 2002). It is the ecological overshoot which
interactions mediated by land availability (Lambin leads to land use and land cover change which
et al., 2003). reflects irreversible change to ecosystems. This leads
Spatial data on land use and land cover in to changes in one form of land cover naturalized
a region is a prerequisite to determining the over time to a particular ecological formation.

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Land use and land cover change in India: A remote sensing & GIS prespective REVIEW

Remote sensing as a tool for land use and land remote sensing data and ancillary data in a
cover change GIS environment combined with the Global
In this regard, satellite remote sensing has immense positioning system (GPS) data is a potential tool
potential in ensuring a synoptic view of the to environment management. By Combining the
landscape at all levels right from the local level to GIS and Information technology (IT), a new word
the global level. Furthermore, satellite-based remote has been coined, namely, Geoinformatics. The
sensing sensors can capture the electromagnetic three major objectives of Geoinformatics include:
spectrum in ranges other than the visible region and Organization/development and management of
can split the complete electromagnetic spectrum geospatial data; spatial modeling and data analysis;
into various bands. This enables the extraction development and integration of computer tools for
of information about the variability of the earth’s visualization and analysis of real time geospatial
surface due to the reflective property of the earth’s problems in decision making processes.
surface to the different electromagnetic wavelengths
(Lillisand and Kiefer, 2006). GIS, which can depict Need for estimation of land use and land cover
information on natural as well as anthropogenic change
induced resources in spatial domains enables the For inclusive growth and development in various
proper planning and execution of policies. spheres and sectors, food and water security for
Remote sensing is an essential tool of land- the growing population needs to be met and
change science because it facilitates observations issues emerging from climate change, need to be
across larger extents of Earth’s surface than is addressed (Ramakrishna, 1998). Recognizing these
possible by ground-based observations. This is multifunctional requirements of land, the various
accomplished by the use of cameras, multi-spectral dimensions and relationships of different sectors
scanners, RADAR and LiDAR sensors mounted of the society need to be recognised. In this context,
on air- and space-borne platforms yielding aerial land use planning and management are considered
photographs, satellite imagery, and RADAR and an interwoven complex web system (figure 1).
LiDAR datasets. Data available from remote In view of this, due attention has been given
sensing vary from the very high-resolution datasets in India to developing national policies of various
produced irregularly over extents no larger than sectors of land management. Although India has
a single state or province (by aerial photography, only 2.3 % of terrestrial land area, it harbours 17%
imaging, LiDAR, and by high resolution satellite of the global population and 11% of the global
sensors such as CartoSat, IKONOS and Quickbird), livestock. The pressure on the Indian land mass
to regional datasets produced at regular intervals is almost 4–6 times the global average. In the last
from satellites (e.g.,LISS III, Landsat, SPOT), to 40 years the area under crop has almost remained
lower-resolution (>250 m) datasets now produced constant at around 140±2.0 Mha (Roy and Murthy,
across the entire Earth on a daily basis (e.g., 2009). To sustain the bursting population, in
MODIS). India there is intensive agriculture, which annually
The temporal dynamics of the synoptic view withdraws around 2000–2500 × 106 m3 of water.
of the earth’s surface by satellite assisted data India’s urban population has grown phenomenally
capture has given us an important tool to study over the past five decades with about 7–8 million
the variations in land use and land cover over a people being added to the urban population each
period of time. The changes in the land use and year. Considering the rate of urbanization as a
land cover manifested as a function of the changes parameter to indicate the growth of a city, it is found
either natural or manmade, have a bearing on the that eleven cities in India are amongst the 100 fastest
reflectance patterns of incidence radiation due to growing cities of the world (TOI, 2007).
the changes in the vegetative cover, soil moisture Although the urban regions of India have some
or the various modifications of the earth’s surface modern technologies for planning and development,
(Navalgund, 2001). Since the changes in land use it is rural India, which constitutes around 72%
and land cover are more or less unidirectional, of the total population in the country, which
without much oscillation, it is safe to extrapolate needs scientific and technical inputs in overall
the changes in spatial extents and also calculate the socioeconomic development (Rao, 2008). Nearly
rate of changes. A very important tool in this regard three-fourth of the households in the country
is the Geographical Information System (GIS). accounting for one third of total primary energy
The Geographic Information System is a consumption are in rural areas with little access to
powerful tool in which spatial information can energy sources other than biomass. Water security
be stored, organized, and retrieved in a user- will be one of the major concerns in the coming
friendly environment. The Conjunction of satellite decades with a projected water demand of over

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REVIEW P. S. Roy and Arijit Roy

National LULC databases

Figure 1: Land Use Planning – An Interwoven Web (adapted from Roy
In the last decade, there has been a tremendous
& Murthy, 2009).
increase in the quality and extent of spatial database
generation of land use and land cover in India.
The Concentrated effort of various governmental
and non-governmental organizations/agencies has
resulted in the generation of thematic information
on the various aspects of land use and land cover.
The department of Space has been at the forefront of
the effort and has taken a lead role in the generation
of land use and land cover information at various
resolutions. Some of the major achievements in this
regard have been discussed already.
One of the first National Level surveys on the
land use and land cover of India was generated as
part of Biome level mapping using IRS 1D WiFS data
(180m) at 1:1M. The data base has been used for
Global land cover mapping 2000. The database has
been generated using the premise that vegetation is
a function of climatic and environmental conditions
prevalent in a particular area. This database is one
of the baseline databases of land use and land cover
in India (Fig. 2a) and helped in the formulation
and effective implementation of the National Level
Biodiversity Characterization at Landscape Level
Project.
Of the major land use and land cover databases
available is the annual land use and land cover map
at 1:250K using AWiFS data (56 m) (Fig. 2b). The
980 billion cubic meters by 2050. India, being project has resulted in the generation of a cropped
a agrarian community, must ensure that water area for all the three cropping seasons (Kharif, Rabi
security is addressed in the coming decades to and Zaid). Already 5 cycles of database generation
maintain economic development as well as to feed for the years 2004–05, 05–06, 06–07, 07–08 and
its ever-increasing population. There is a need to 08–09 have been completed. Currently, the sixth
develop sustainable management of the ground cycle of the project (09–10) is in progress.
water as well as effective utilization of surface water
All three cycles of the LULC database, seasonal
for maintaining the water security in the country
snow and water are organized in conjunction
Furthermore, India has reasons to be concerned
about the impact of climate change. Its large with ancillary information on roads, settlements
population depends on climate-sensitive sectors and socioeconomics in the geospatial domain to
like agriculture and forestry for livelihoods. India serve as a Web-enabled LULC information system
has a very long coastline. The coastal zone of India “Bhoosampada” to facilitate value-added data query,
is densely populated and stretches over 7500 km utilization and dissemination. The information
with the Arabian Sea in the west and the Indian system is organized to serve 1:1 million scale
Ocean/Bay of Bengal in the east. The total area products for wider use as a primary information
occupied by coastal districts is around 379,610 km2 product and 1:250,000 scale products viz., maps,
with an average population density of 445 persons statistics and digital databases to facilitate advanced
per km2 (about 1.5 times the national average; analysis and integration. The facility on query
Earth Trend, 2003). Recent studies on the potential and integrated analysis of the 3 cycles’ data in
impact of a one meter sea level rise along the Indian conjunction with socio economic information
coast suggest that the total area of 5763 km2 along
adds an additional dimension to data value and
the Coastal States of India i.e., 0.41% could be
inundated and almost 7.1 million i.e., 4.6 % of utilization.
the coastal population could be directly affected Understanding the spatial dynamics of land
(TERI, 1996). These and other associated impacts of use and land cover change (LULCC), has been a
climate change will threaten food security and cause challenge for geospatial scientists and until now date
a dieback of natural ecosystems including species there has not been a single robust model which can
that sustain food production. capture the land use and land cover dynamics of a

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Land use and land cover change in India: A remote sensing & GIS prespective REVIEW

Figure 2: Land use and land cover maps of India during 2000 (a) and 2007 (b) (resampled to 200 m × 200 m).

region. In view of the importance of understanding centuries (Ramanakutty and Foley, 1999) while
the influence of the human, physical and climatic cropland has increased by 12 million km2 during the
determinants in LULCC, this project envisions the same period. Currently, humans have transformed
study of their impact on the LULCC in the country. significant portions of the earth’s land surface:
To facilitate the study, the entire country has been 10–15% is dominated by agriculture or urban-
divided into 14 river basins owing to the intrinsic industrial areas and 6–8% is pasture (Vitousek et al.,
variability in topography, hydrology, climate and 1997). These changes in land use have important
anthropogenic influence in each basin. This leads implications for future changes in the earth’s climate
to unique drivers and properties for each river and, in turn, greater implications for subsequent
basin. The project will spatially identify the future land use and land cover change. The surface heat and
land LULC scenario with respect to region-specific moisture budgets depend very much on land use
drivers of LULCC. and land cover which, in turn, affect atmospheric
instability. Simulations of the plausible human-
Land use and land cover change modeling influenced landscape changes following different
First and foremost in land use and land cover scenarios may reveal strategic policies that should
change modeling is the generation of scenarios. be modified to improve the environment.
This is because the relationship of the people with Understanding the spatial dynamics of land use
the land has the same origin as their evolution – and land cover change has been a challenge for
the ability to modify their surroundings to suit geospatial scientists and until now there is not a
themselves. Land use change is a locally pervasive single robust model which can capture the land
and globally significant ecological trend. On a use and land cover dynamics of a region. Historical
global scale, nearly 1.2 million km2 of forest have land use patterns coupled with current trends in a
been converted to other uses during the last three region are used to model future land use. Land use

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REVIEW P. S. Roy and Arijit Roy

change models include trend analyses of historical such as Mumbai, Chennai and Calcutta. One of
data like GEOMOD (Pontius et al., 2001) or CA- the major factors responsible for the degradation
Markof which predicts the rate and spatial pattern of coastal ecosystems is the growth in human
of land conversion based on past land use change population that requires space for settlement and
or agent-based change models where the drivers other resources like soil and water.
define the change in land use. Recent work by Reddy and Roy (2007) has shown
Numerous models have been used to build that coastal ecosystems are dynamic ecosystem and
scenarios of the future: narrative method models are extensively influenced by anthropogenic factors
and hybrid methods using both qualitative and and policies. The study was carried out using four
quantitative methods (Jones 2005). Agrawal et al. time period satellite data (1977, 1988, 2000 and
(2002) have provided an exhaustive study on the 2005) of the Kakinada bay. Using the supervised
various available land use and land cover change digital classification method (maximum likelihood
models. Most land use/change models incorporate classifier), the mangroves and their surrounding
three critical dimensions. Time and space are the LULC classes (5 km buffer from the mangroves)
have been identified. On running change analysis
first two dimensions and provide a common setting
among the nine LULC classes, it was observed that
in which all bio-physical and human processes
the various classes had different trends of change
operate. The third dimension is the human process
through the four decades as shown in Table 1.
or the human decision-making dimension. The
The change matrix generated shows that
three dimensions of land use change models (space, mangrove vegetation had a negative change during
time and human decision-making) and the two 1977-1988 due mainly to encroachment of the
distinct attributes for each dimension (scale and natural mangroves by agriculture and aquaculture
complexity) are the foundations of the land use during the 1980s which led to extensive degradation
change models (fig. 3). of the mangrove vegetation in the Kakinada Bay. But
after the Coringa Wild life sanctuary was established,
Vegetation dynamics over three decades in the mangrove vegetation in the Kakinada bay
Mangroves of Godavari Delta has shown a positive increment (Fig. 4). Reddy
Coastal locations have been the favorite destinations & Roy have also observed that the majority of
of populations in movement for defense, positive changes in the region are due to the active
commercial and other economic reasons. About involvement of the government in the form of
20% of the population of India lives in coastal areas, protection of natural areas and plantation efforts
a larger percentage of this being in coastal cities, (Table 1).

Figure 3: Three dimensional frame work for land use change models.

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Land use and land cover change in India: A remote sensing & GIS prespective REVIEW

Table 1: Change area matrix of vegetation and other land cover in the Godavari mangroves and its environs (Source Reddy and Roy, 2007).

1977/2005 Dense Mangrove Open Mangrove Plantations Agriculture Built uparea Aquaculture Water Mudflat Sand Total

Dense Mangrove 4.3 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 20.6
Open Mangrove 5.8 124.7 0.7 5.0 0.0 8.2 14.2 14.5 1.2 174.2
Plantations 0.0 0.4 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 1.4 10.6
Agriculture 0.0 0.8 0.1 164.2 8.3 18.8 6.6 9.4 0.6 208.8
Built up area 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2
Aquaculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Water 0.1 12.5 5.1 8.3 0.1 1.9 388.1 15.1 7.2 438.2
Mudflat 0.2 21.1 1.4 17.4 0.5 17.4 12.3 14.5 0.7 85.5
Sand 0.0 1.2 3.9 0.7 0.0 0.1 6.3 5.0 2.5 19.8
Grand total 10.3 175.7 18.2 196.2 22.4 46.5 428.8 60.1 13.6 972

Figure 4: Changes in vegetation and land cover in Kakinada Bay over 3 decades (Source Reddy & Roy 2007).

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Land use and land cover change analysis in the for about 597 km before falling into the Bay of
Pennar River Basin: a case study Bengal. An average annual surface water potential
The Pennar Basin extends over nearly 1.7 % of the of 6.3 Km3 has been assessed in this basin, which
total geographical area of the country. The basin is completely utilizable. The cultivable area in the
lies in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. basin is about 20.3 m ha, which is about 10.4 % of
The Pennar River rises from the Chenna Kesava the total cultivable land of the country.
hills of the Nandi ranges of Karnataka and flows A Temporal land use and land cover map of

Figure 5: Methodology for temporal LULC mapping in the Pennar River Basin.

Figure 6: Temporal LULC map of the Pennar River Basin.

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Land use and land cover change in India: A remote sensing & GIS prespective REVIEW

the Pennar river basin was prepared for the years

Figure 7: Change map of the Pennar river basin (1985–2005).
1985, 1995 and 2005 and covered two decades. The
methodology followed for the land use map is given
in figure 5.
Using the three time period data (Fig. 6) a
change map was generated using ERDAS imagine
software. The change map is shown in figure 7.
It has been observed that the land use and land
cover change in the region is mainly driven by the
socio-economic changes in the region. The wetland
of the region has increased greatly and has been
mostly converted from crop lands. This is due to the
sudden spurt in aquaculture practice during the
early part of the 1990s.

Geostatistical modeling of Land cover change in

Meghalaya
A case has been described here for land use and land
cover change simulation. The North Eastern (NE)
Region of India harbours an 83.5% forest cover and
is dominated by varied forest types and associated
land use. Indigenous shifting cultivation has long
been practised in all parts of the NE region over
the past several decades and has impacted land use
patterns and compositional and structural changes
in the forests. In view of this, a predictive analysis of
forest cover changes in Meghalaya state of the NE
region was conducted. The trends in LULC changes
were analyzed based on remote sensing based LULC
maps generated for 1980, 1989, 1995 and were used
to develop a predictive forest cover for these years
(Roy and Tomar,2001; Singh et al, 2001) (Fig. 8)
This work has been one of the first efforts in change
modeling in the country.

Table 2: Change area matrix of Pennar River Basin (1985–2005)

1985/2005 Built Crop Fallow Plantation Evergreen Deciduous Mixed Scrub Grass Barren Waste Water
up land Land Forest Forest Forest land land Land land Body

Built up 1782.20 5.05 0.00 1.58 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 3.13
Crop land 122.64 78110 567.86 28.90 4.85 19.93 58.21 154.82 0.00 19.84 1.57 1421.30
Fallow Land 8.63 912.29 8079.49 6.43 0.00 4.90 4.95 62.13 0.00 22.36 0.01 117.53
Plantation 107.51 19.11 0.64 4566.14 0.00 0.76 0.95 0.42 0.00 0.63 0.62 21.27
Evergreen Forest 0.00 3.47 0.00 0.00 1636.10 122.50 46.79 9.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12
Deciduous Forest 0.00 22.66 6.29 14.13 39.37 14373.69 695.17 742.22 0.00 6.89 0.00 30.13
Mixed Forest 3.27 77.05 21.18 4.81 7.91 387.58 8162.5 341.03 0.00 22.66 0.00 59.79
Scrub land 0.45 191.16 92.46 4.24 5.84 44.06 80.07 10504.12 0.00 25.55 0.02 74.44
Grassland 0.00 1.67 1.22 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.10 0.00 0.02 0.00
Barren Land 1.62 16.14 21.20 43.41 0.00 0.00 2.70 4.37 0.00 811.90 0.00 0.11
Wasteland 0.00 4.22 0.00 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.72 0.00 0.00 804.47 1.20
Water Body 2.00 263.46 4.87 3.62 0.00 1.73 25.81 12.24 0.00 2.71 2.43 7591.69

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Figure 8: Land cover change simulation in Meghalaya (Roy & Tomar 2001).

Land use and land cover modeling in the Indian This is a open-ended model where the drivers
scenario: a case study in Goa can be defined based on local/regional specific
Human influence on natural ecosystems in characteristics. In the present study the drivers
association with biogeography has been changing used were population density, terrain (elevation and
land cover through the ages. But in recent times, due slope) and rainfall. Using the multiple regression
to an ever-increasing demand for agricultural space method, the impact of the drivers was calibrated
and resources as a result of increasing population, and fed into the model.
there rapid changes in the land cover of most of The three time period data has been used to
the regions of India with Goa being no exception. model land use change in Goa. The 1985 and 1994
Understanding the spatial dynamics of land use and data have been used to model land use and land
land cover change has been a challenge for geospatial cover change. The land use change model used
scientists and until now date there has not been a was the CA-Markof model which gives a Markof ’s
single robust model which can capture the land use probabilistic model of probable land use change in
and land cover dynamics of a region. Here, it may the second time frame data, the cellular automata is
be noted that the population expansion in a region used to weed out the outliers and give the optimized
is intrinsically related to topographical and climatic output.
impedances. This results in the colonization of areas
with less topographical variability and moderate Identification of drivers
climates. The land use change from 1985 to 2006 has
An agent-based land use and land cover change been a result of various anthropogenic and climatic
model has been developed to understand the land factors. Until now there has been little work on the
use and land cover dynamics in Goa (Roy et al., quantitative assessment of the various drivers of
2010). The model used Markovian probability land use change. Since the assessment of the various
in association with Cellular Automata to allocate socio-economic factors is qualitative, there has been
spatially the trends defined by the drivers of change. an attempt to select the drivers which will lend

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Land use and land cover change in India: A remote sensing & GIS prespective REVIEW

The land use and land cover changes as well as

Figure 9: Schematic diagram of the Agent Based Change Model.
the ongoing changes which have occurred in Goa
are influenced mainly by two drivers, anthropogenic
and the bio-geo-climatic. Since the bio-geo-climatic
drivers are at a very coarse spatial scale when we take
into account the spatial extent of a state like Goa, it
is the anthropogenic drivers which play a major role
in the spatial variability in the land use and land
cover changes in the region. This does not mean
that the bio-geo-chemical factors are non-existent;
in fact, bio-geochemical factors in association with
anthropogenic factors are solely responsible for the
changes in land use and land cover in the region.
Using the three time period data, two for
computation and one for validation, the land use
and land cover data were modeled for the state of
Goa with a kappa accuracy of 85% which gives
a estimate of the errors of omission as well as
errors of commission with respect to the actual
changes. The roles of the drivers in the LULC
changes have been different for different drivers
with the terrain playing a major role followed by
rainfall and finally population density. The land
use and land cover change scenario of 2027 shows
that the most dynamic land use class is fallow land
themselves to statistical evaluation. After extensive followed by degraded forests.
statistical analysis, we have identified three drivers, A Comparison between the modeled value and
namely, population density, rainfall, and terrain the satellite derived value of 2006 shows a mixed
(slope and elevation). A brief methodology of the level of performance for the different classes. The
work flow is given in fig. 9. variation is more prominent in classes managed by

Figure 10: Comparison between actual Image and the modelled Image.

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REVIEW P. S. Roy and Arijit Roy

Table 3: Variations between the modeled values and human activity like cropland, fallow-land, water
satellite derived values for different land use and land bodies (due to construction of reservoirs) and the
cover classes.
natural classes which are considerably influenced
Class Variation (%)
by human activities, such as deciduous forests and
mixed forests (Table 3). This variation is due to the
Barren Land/Wasteland −2.45 influence of different land use and land cover drivers.
Crop Land 30.42 It has been further observed that the variation in
Fallow Land −31.64 the natural land cover classes are most pronounced
Water Body 26.56 in the areas which are close to major settlements
Deciduous Forest −21.28
(Fig. 10).
Built Up −0.82
The model after validation has been used to
Semi-Evergreen 9.32
project a future land use and land cover change
Mixed forest −10.72
scenario for 2027 (Fig. 11). The predicted map
of the land use and land cover change scenario
when compared with the 2006 classified land use
and land cover map shows that most of the small
forest patches have disappeared and croplands have
Figure 11: Modelled Land use and land cover map of Goa for the year invaded the area.
2027. The roles of the drivers in the LULC changes
have been varied for different drivers with the
terrain playing a major role followed by rainfall and
finally population density. The land use and land
cover change scenario of 2027 shows that the most
dynamic land use class is fallow land followed by
degraded forests.

Conclusion
Spatial land use and land cover change is a reflection
of the impact of biotic drivers as well as abiotic
drivers on the prevalent land use and land cover of
the region. The force of the drivers as well as the
changes in driver composition leads to changes in
the prevalent land use and land cover of a region.
Both the terrain and climatic factors also play a
major role in influencing the intensity as well as
the rate of land use and land cover change. GIS-
based analysis of the RS derived temporal data
of the land use and land cover of a region can
identify the potentially vulnerable areas to change as
a result of the different driving forces. A Geographic
understanding of land use change processes can
be achieved by analyzing a temporal database for
spatial patterns, rates of change and trends. The
analysis requires understanding a region’s land
use history involving population data, timelines of
historical events and related information. Spatio-
temporal analysis of past historical events aid in
understanding and subsequently modeling the
issues that influence the development in a region in
association with topography, climate and adequate
supply of water and other natural resources.
The human footprint is how touching more
pristine and relatively natural areas. The structural
and functional changes in ecological processes as
a result of the extending and the consolidation
of the human footprint are continuously leading

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Land use and land cover change in India: A remote sensing & GIS prespective REVIEW

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REVIEW P. S. Roy and Arijit Roy

Dr. PS Roy is the Outstanding Scientist, Dr Arijit Roy is presently working

ISRO, Associate Director (Capacity as a Scientist in National Remote
Building), National Remote Sensing Sensing Centre, Indian Space Research
Centre, Dean, IIRS and also Director, Organization, Hyderabad. He has
Centre for Space Science and Technology obtained his graduation, post-graduation
Education in Asia and the Pacific and Ph.D. in Botany from Banaras Hindu
(affiliated to the United Nations), University. He was previouly associated
Dehradun (India) for international with Computer Center, Banaras Hindu
Capacity Building. He is Ph.D. in Ecology University, where he was working as a
and has contributed significantly in post-doctoral fellow. Dr Arijit Roy is
Satellite Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics Science for Natural working in the field of Ecological Modeling, Geospatial land-use
Resources and Disaster Management. Presently he is Lead for land-cover change modeling and modeling biological diversity and
National Biodiversity Characterisation at Landscape Level and its change and has published a number of papers in this field. He
Landuse Land Cover Change Dynamics in the Indian River Basins is a team member of the Landuse Land Cover Change Dynamics
projects of ISRO. in the Indian River Basins.

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