INDIVIDUAL REPORT

SUBMITEPROFESSOR: MR. EDGAR SULIVA BACASON

“CORN”

LOUELLA MAY O-ONG LEDESMA | HDBM L5 ECONOMICS FOR DECISIONMAKING | 30 TH OCT 2021

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Table of Contents
1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................3

1.1. Corns............................................................................................................................3

1.2. Domestication and History..........................................................................................3

1.3. Uses and Products....................................................................................................3-4

2. Relationship between Sugar and Oil prices........................................................................4

3. Supply and Demand Analysis.............................................................................................5

3.1. Corn Prices.............................................................................................................6-11

3.1.1. The three factors that affect the corn price market 2020......................................12-14

4. Comparison of Corn and Crude Oil Prices.......................................................................15

4.1. Relationship of Corn and Ethanol Prices.......................................................................16

5. Substitute Goods...............................................................................................................16

5.1. What is the Substitute of the Goods for Corn............................................................17

5.2. Substitute Goods of Oil........................................................................................17-18

6. Complimentary Goods......................................................................................................18

6.1. Complimentary Goods of Corn.................................................................................18

6.2. Complimentary Goods of Oil....................................................................................19

7. Price Elasticity..................................................................................................................19

8. Prospect for the future.......................................................................................................20

9. Conclusion........................................................................................................................20

References................................................................................................................................21

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 1. Introduction

This report aims to cover the reason for the changes in prices of corn and to know if there are any
connections with the world of oil prices. Data for the 10 years will be utilized along with the use
of diagrams to better comprehend the theories when applied to different circumstances.

1.1. Corn

Corn, (Zea mays), also called Indian corn or maize, cereal plant of the grass family (Poaceae)
and its edible grain. The domesticated crop originated in the Americas and is one of the most
widely distributed of the world’s food crops. Corn is used as livestock feed, as human food,
as biofuel, and as raw material in industry.

1.2 Domestication and history

Corn was first domesticated by native peoples in southern Mexico about 10,000 years ago.
Modern corn is believed to have been derived from the Balsas teosinte (Zea mays parviglumis), a
wild grass. Its culture had spread as far north as southern Maine by the time of European
settlement of North America, and Native Americans taught European colonists to grow
the indigenous grains. Since its introduction into Europe by Christopher Columbus and other
explorers and colonizers, corn has spread to all areas of the world suitable to its cultivation. It is
grown from 58° N latitude in Canada and Russia to 40° S latitude in South America, with a corn
crop maturing somewhere in the world nearly every month of the year. It is the most important
crop in the United States and is a staple food in many places.

1.3 Uses and Products

Corn is one of the world’s most productive and dominant crops. It is grown extensively
as food for both humans and livestock, as a biofuel, and as a crude material in industry.

Food and nutrition

Corn is the third largest plant-based food source in the world. Despite its importance as a major
food in many parts of the world, corn is inferior to other cereals in nutritional value. Its protein is

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of poor quality, and it is deficient in niacin. Diets in which it predominates often result
in pellagra (niacin-deficiency disease). Corn is high in dietary fiber and rich in antioxidants.
Unlike many other cereal grains, corn flour is gluten-free and cannot be used alone to make
rising breads. It is widely used, however, in Latin American cuisine to make masa, a kind of
dough used in such staple foods as tortillas, arepas, and tamales. In the United States and many
other places, sweet corn is boiled or roasted on the cob, creamed, converted into hominy (hulled
kernels) or meal, and cooked in corn puddings, mush, polenta, griddle cakes, cornbread,
and scrapple. It is also used for popcorn, confections, and various manufactured breakfast
cereal preparations.

Corn oil, valued for its bland flavor and light color, is used primarily for food. It is favored as
a salad oil and frying oil because it contains little cholesterol. Corn oil can be converted
into margarine by hydrogenation, a process in which the oil is combined with hydrogen at high
temperature and pressure in the presence of a catalyst.
Corn is also fermented into a number of alcoholic beverages, notably bourbon and other
corn whiskeys.

2. Relationship between Corn and Oil prices

Biofuels. As corn corps is also used to produce ethanol (ethyl alcohol), a first-generation
liquid biofuel. In the United States corn ethanol is typically blended with gasoline to produce
“gasohol,” an automotive fuel that is 10 percent ethanol. Although corn-based biofuels were
initially touted as environmentally friendly alternatives to petroleum, their production diverts
arable land and feedstock from the human food chain, sparking a “food versus fuel” debate. In
addition, crops grown for biofuel can compete for the world’s natural habitats, and the emphasis
on ethanol derived from corn has shifted grasslands and brushlands to corn monocultures in
some places, impacting biodiversity. Beyond land-use changes, the process of growing corn to
produce ethanol consumes fossil fuels in farming equipment, in fertilizer manufacturing, in corn
transportation, and in ethanol distillation. In this respect, ethanol made from corn represents a
relatively small energy gain; the energy gain from sugarcane is greater and that from cellulosic
ethanol (made from nonedible plant parts such as agricultural waste) or algae biodiesel could be

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even greater, though the conversion technology is generally less efficient than that of first-
generation biofuels.
Corn harvester Machine - designed for harvesting corn and preparing it for storage. The
mechanical binder was invented about 1850. At about the same time,
a rudimentary mechanical picker was developed, though it took nearly 30 years for a practical
version to appear.

The mechanical picker snaps the ears from the stalk so that only the grain and cobs are harvested.
The standing stalks are guided by shields or snouts to pass between counter-rotating rollers that
pull the stalks down and through very sharply, snapping the ears free. The husking mechanism,
consisting of closely spaced, counter-rotating rollers, tears the husks away. Pickers may be
pulled behind a tractor and power-takeoff driven or mounted directly on the tractor, one unit on
each side, to form a two-row harvester.

Field shelling attachments for mechanical pickers were introduced in the 1950s. In the late 20th
century, corn-harvesting attachments for the combine were in widespread use.

As well during the production process in the factories, large equipment is used for the extraction
and refining of corn to make the output of corn flour & corn oil. So, fuel is needed for
continuous production and harvesting.

Transportation- truck, boat, train & airplanes, and other modes of transportation are used to
deliver the product commodities from one place to another. In order to utilize these modes of
transportation, diesel or gasoline is used and the prices of crude oil are heavy influencers to the
prices of these fuels.

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3. Supply and Demand Analysis

3.1 Corn Prices-In a free market economy, price is ultimately determined by the supply
and demand for a product or commodity. Short-term price gyrations often occur and can
be influenced by market reactions to news concerning such things as weather,
government reports and/or policy. Corn is a commodity that reflects this scenario

(Figure 1). -The graph showcases the drastic fluctuation of the price of corn from
1998 to 2019.

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(Figure 2). - World corn production, taking into consideration the forecast to the 2024/2025
agricultural year, mln t Source: compiled by authors based on the data from Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [18].

Analyzing the figure 2 it was found that the world corn production keeps restrained, but stable
growth in gross yield and tends to increase, and taking into consideration the given forecast, the
volume of grown corn of 1143 mln t should be expected in the agricultural year 2024/2025,
which is by 7.73 % more than was harvested in the agricultural year 2018/2019. According to the
results of the agricultural year 2017/2018 and 2016/2017, the growth rate of the gross yield of
corn in the world was 1.95 % and 1.85 %, respectively. The largest producing countries are also

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the largest exporters and consumers of corn. Geographically the corn market is segmented to
North American, South American, European and Asia-Pacific regions. The popularity of the corn
cultivation in these regions is caused by favorable climatic conditions. It is expected that on a
global scale among all regions high demand will continue in the countries of North America and
the Asia-Pacific region. The main reason for the increase in demand will be scheduled high
volume of the corn harvest and its processing for animal foodstuff.

“Surging Corn Prices Put U.S. Wheat Back in the Feed Trough,” by Michael Hirtzer. Bloomberg

News (June 25, 2019).

(Figure 3). - The formation of corn prices depends on supply and demand on commodity
exchanges. The most popular and active commodity exchange for the trading of futures contracts
on corn is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, namely its individual SWOT unit. Data of the
exchange testify to the collapse of corn prices

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Fig. 3. Corn futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Source: data from equity. Today.
The future trade agreement between the USA and China will be the catalyst that will lead to
serious consequences for corn producers, in consequence of which the demand for this crop will
increase, and the processing sector will fill the markets with different goods: products for animal
foodstuff, food products and deep processing products.

So
urce: built by A. Karnaushenko based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations and inventure.com.ua.

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After analyzing the structure of corn use in consumption sectors it was found that there were no
significant changes in the structure within 2017–2018, however, it is worth noting that the
change of 0.01 % on the global market scale indicates that this is more than 1 mln t of corn. In
2018, the use of corn as food increased by 0.5 %, the use of corn as animal foodstuff increased
by 0.2 %, and as deep processing products increased by 0.3 %. As the leader and largest supplier
of corn in the world is the United States of America, and one second of the harvest of this crop is
cultivated in its fields, it is advisable to consider the processing structure of this crop in the
United States of America.

Source: built by V. Petrenko based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations and inventure.com.ua landlord.ua and agrotimes.ua

Technologies of deep processing, that meet the demand of the final consumer for quality
products are actively developing all over the world. Currently, 78 plants for deep processing of
grain crops, located in 20 countries operate in Europe. In the USA, these plants are only 21, but
each plant has higher production capacity than in Europe. Development of the industry of deep
processing of grain is at a faster pace in China, so starch products, spirits, glutamine acid, lysine,
citric acid are produced in the processing of corn. In addition, production of corn oil and polyol
is organized. Production of corn starch as the main product of deep processing industry is
developing rapidly. In 2017, the corn starch production in China reached 29.2 mln t, which was

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26 % more than in 2013 (Table 3). In 2017, China has increased corn processing from 104 to 137
mln t, in 2018 positive trend continued.

Supply and demand influence the price (Roberts and Schlenker, 2013). Demand is the
willingness of consumers to buy a product. Supply is the number of goods available in the
market. So, when there is a rise in demand, the price will increase causing a shortage. During
this phase, suppliers tend to supply more selling it greater than the cost of producing to earn a
profit while the demanded quantity is little. This is the concept of the Law of Supply.
Conversely, when there is an excess in supply the price of the good will fall resulting in a
surplus. This means the consumers will buy more when the price is low and this explains the
Law of Demand.

When the supply and demand curve is determined, the intersection is called the equilibrium
point, it determines the equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity. At equilibrium, both the
seller and buyer are satisfied with the price and quantity.

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3.1.1 The three factors that affect the corn price in the market 2020

The Corn prices have not been stable from 2000 to 2020 and there are many different situations
and events that influence corn price. Through my research, I will be exploring and explaining the
fundamental reasons that corn prices have become increasingly more volatile. The U.S.
marketing year average corn price for 2019-20 is projected to be $3.60 per bushel. In contrast,
the forecast for the 2000-21 marketing year is only $3.20 per bushel. This large decline in corn
prices leads to several questions: Why have corn prices declined so sharply? What factors could
keep corn prices at their current levels? And what is the impact of lower corn prices on feed
costs?

The corn balance sheet is primarily driven by total supply (this year’s production plus beginning
stocks), feed demand, demand from the ethanol industry and exports. Let’s compare the
upcoming 2000-21 marketing year balance sheet to the 2019-20 marketing year balance sheet
using June projections. Total supply is projected to increase 14.1%, due to an increase in planted
acreage and the expected return to trend yield. Feed demand is projected to increase 6.1% and is
expected to reach its highest level since 2005. Ethanol demand is projected to increase 6.1%.

Though higher than the 2019-20 demand levels, the 2000-21 demand for corn from the ethanol
industry is substantially lower than the levels reached in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Corn used for
exports is expected to increase from 1.77 billion bushels in 2019-20 to 2.15 billion bushels in
2000-21. Putting all the pieces together, the increase in total supply swamps the increase in

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demand, causing the stocks-to-use ratio to increase from 15.3% in 2019-20 to 22.5% in 2000-21.
As a result, the U.S. marketing year average price is expected to decline from $3.60 in 2019-20
to $3.20 in 2000-21.

As noted above, feed demand is a very important component of domestic corn demand. With this
in mind, we will examine cattle-finishing feeding cost of gain and dried distillers grain (DDG)
prices.

“In 2008, nearly 3 billion bushels of corn were used to produce ethanol in the United States.
That amount constituted an increase over the previous year of almost a billion bushels. The
demand for corn for ethanol production, along with other factors, exerted upward pressure on
corn prices, which rose by more than 50 percent between April 2007 and April 2008.”

1. Cost of gain
In addition to corn prices, cattle-finishing feeding cost of gain is sensitive to changes in feed
conversions and alfalfa prices. Using data for the last 10 years, regression analysis was used to
examine the relationship between feeding cost of gain and feed conversion, corn prices, and
alfalfa prices. Results are as follows: each 10 cent increase in feed conversion increases feeding
cost of gain by $1.24 per hundredweight (cwt), each 10 cent per bushel increase in corn prices
increases feeding cost of gain by 88 cents per cwt, and each $5 per ton increase in alfalfa prices
increases feeding cost of gain by 50 cents per cwt. Using this information, the 50 cent drop in
corn prices from late January to early June reduced feeding cost of gain per cwt by $4.40 and
will likely result in the lowest feeding cost of gain in the second half of this year since early
2017.

2. Dried distillers grains

DDGs are an important feed ingredient for most animal species. Given the substitutability of
DDG for corn and soybean meal prices, we would expect DDG prices to be significantly related
to these feedstuffs. Regression analysis using data from January 2007 to December 2019 for
central Illinois was used to help explain the relationship between DDG prices and corn and
soybean meal prices. Results are as follows: each 10 cents per bushel ($3.57 per ton) increase in
corn prices results in a $2.33 per ton increase in DDG prices, and each $10 per ton increase in
soybean meal prices results in a $2.18 per ton increase in DDG prices. Given this information,

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the 50 cent drop in corn prices from late January to mid-June would result in a $11.65 per ton
drop in DDG prices. However, it is important to note that DDG prices were relatively high in
April and May due to relatively low ethanol production during these two months. As ethanol
plants increase production in response to increased fuel demand coming out of the sheltering-in-
place COVID-19 restrictions, we would expect DDG prices to move downward in response to
the lower corn prices.

3. Forecasts

What about long-run trends in corn prices? The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
(FAPRI) at the University of Missouri recently released updated forecasts of corn prices for the
2000-21 through the 2025-26 marketing years. Their estimate for 2000-21 is $3.06, which is
below the current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) estimate of
$3.20. For the 2021-22 through 2025-26 marketing years, FAPRI estimates that U.S. corn price
will range from $3.19 in 2021-22 to $3.35 in 2025-26. In other words, their forecasts suggest that
corn prices are going to stay below the 2019-20 marketing year average price for the extended
future.

Michael Langemeier is with the Center for Commercial Agriculture at Purdue University.

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 4. Comparison of Corn and Crude Oil Prices

Looking at the graph, the two commodities show a link with each other as both have a
relationship as mentioned earlier. This can clearly be noticed that in mid-2008, with the severe
decline in the economy, crude oil prices dropped sharply. Corn prices declined during that
period, but not as sharply as the crude oil price. As crude oil prices recovered from late 2009
through late 2011, corn prices also increased, but at a faster rate than crude oil as corn supplies
tightened in response to rapid increases in government ethanol blending mandates and rapid
growth in the demand for corn to produce ethanol and distillers grain. From the spring of 2012
through mid-2013, corn prices moved far above their historical relationship to crude oil. The
surge in corn prices was driven by severe drought across the U.S. Corn Belt and very tight U.S.
and world corn supplies. In the last half of 2013, corn prices fell sharply in response to
improved U.S. corn growing conditions, a record U.S. corn crop, and increased foreign grain
production that resulted from favorable weather and the very strong price incentive to increase
production. Corn prices in early 2014 began to stabilize near their 2004-05 relationship to crude
oil. At that time, the corn industry had surplus supplies and corn prices were about one-fourth
the price of crude oil on a per pound basis. From this chart, it can be concluded that a number of
developments can cause substantial volatility in the relationship between crude oil prices and
corn prices, and that the crude oil cannot be used as a precise predictor of corn prices.

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 4.1 Relationship of corn and ethanol Prices

Figure 6 shows the relationship between corn and ethanol prices. Ethanol and distillers grain and
solubles (DGS) have become the second-largest source of demand for U.S. corn. In the current
marketing year, this demand is projected to use 36% of last year’s U.S. corn crop. (3) Because
of this, corn prices have moved in a close relationship with ethanol prices since mid-2007, except
for 2012 and the first two-thirds of 2013 when corn prices were driven by very tight drought-
reduced supplies. Before mid-2007, corn faced a chronic surplus supply-demand situation
except in years of major weather problems. With the rapid expansion of ethanol production
capacity, corn, from mid-2007 through 2013, became the limiting factor in the ethanol supply
chain. That caused corn prices to be bid up until they reached the breakeven level for ethanol
producers and the capacity expansion stopped.

5. Substitute Goods

Substitute goods are alternatives to another product as they are seen to be similar. This is more
beneficial for consumers as they have more options to choose from, but this means competition
for profit among sellers.

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5.1. What is the substitute of the goods for corn?

There's no direct substitute. You could try using jicima for that sweet-fresh crunch
that corn provides. Or you could use sweet potato/yam or pumpkin as a sweet starchy
contribution. As someone else said, hominy will give you the corn aroma but may be processed
enough to avoid the sensitivity.

Also, to know what can I use in place of corn?

Cauliflower rice is a great low carb substitute to rice, mashed potatoes and even corn. While it
may not have a sweet taste similar to corn, you can still dress it up with some grass-fed butter
and Himalayan sea salt for the corn-flavored fix (minus the starchy carbs content).

Additionally, what can you eat on a corn free diet? When embarking on a corn-free diet, consider
starting with foods like eggs, natural/fresh/unprocessed meats (like grass-fed beef and wild-
caught fish), oats, wheat, quinoa, beans, and rice. Health food stores may also have corn-
free products such as corn-free condiments and much more.

Hereof, what can I use instead of sweetcorn?

Nothing like fresh, in season, corn. However, it freezes well and frozen corn is an
acceptable substitute. You could also try canned corn, which would provide a corn punch, but
may contain extra salt and/or sugar.

5.2. Substitute Goods of Oil

Biofuel and Ethanol

As companies and various industries are moving towards sustainability practices, there are more
environmentally sustainable fuels. When the prices of oil are high there is an increase in the
demand for biofuels. With ethanol being one of the examples of biofuel, its demand will increase
when oil prices are high.

Renewable Energy (Solar Power, Wind Power)

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Renewable energy provides the same services as oil would when it comes to providing energy
sources, so it is also a substitute good for oil.

6. Complimentary Goods

Complimentary good is when one good cannot be used without the help of the other as it
complements each other. This means there is an indirect relationship between the two goods.

6.1. Complimentary Goods of Corn

BUTTER

Butter is a complementary goods to corn; if the price of butter increases, the price of corn-with-
butter increases. As a result of a higher price of butter, the demand for corn decreases. An
increase in the price of fertilizer increases the cost of production of corn; the supply curve shifts
up, and the supply of corn decreases. A decrease in demand tends to lower price; a decrease in
supply tends to raise price, so the new equilibrium price of corn is uncertain. However, both the
decrease in demand and decrease in supply tend to reduce quantity --the new equilibrium
quantity of corn certainly decreases.

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6.2. Complimentary Goods of Oil

Cars and Machinery

As cars and machinery need oil to operate, they are complimentary. So, the oil demand will
decrease when the price of cars and machinery increases as few people are willing and able to
buy.

7. Price Elasticity

In economics, price elasticity is a measure of how reactive the marketplace is to a change in price
for a given product. However, price elasticity works two ways. While price elasticity of demand
is a reflection of consumer behavior as a result of price chance, price elasticity of supply
measures producer behavior. Each metric feed into the other. Both are important when analyzing
marketplace economics, but it is price elasticity of demand that companies look to when
establishing sales strategy. In the graph, the more parallel it is to the price, the more inelastic a
good is. On the other hand, the more parallel it is to the quantity the more elastic it is.

Oil is proven to be inelastic as there is no absolute substitute for it (Wang and Sun, 2017).
Though biofuel and renewable energy reduce the reliance on oil, it is not a viable alternative.
This means regardless of any change in the prices of oil from segments such as the global

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financial crisis causing a fluctuation, and demanded price of oil companies, consumers will still
utilize and pay for it.

8.Prospect for the Future

Global economic growth: If rapid growth continues, particularly in developing countries, it will
continue to put upward pressure on food commodity prices through increases in food demand.

Energy prices: If petroleum prices continue to rise, costs of agricultural production will rise, as
will the cost of processing, and the cost of transporting products to markets both within a country
and exporting to other countries. Continued high petroleum prices will also sustain the global
incentives to produce more biofuels.

Biofuel’s production: Global growth in grains- and oilseeds-based biofuels production is

expected to slow in the next several years from the rapid gains of the past several years, even
with the higher mandates in the United States under the Energy Independence and Security Act
of 2007. This will lessen further demand pressures on agricultural markets and likely will result
in some reductions in grain and oilseed prices. Nonetheless, with sustained higher levels of
biofuels-related demand, world food commodity prices are not projected to retreat to past levels.
However, several years into the future, the underlying long-term trend in rapidly increasing
global demand is expected once again to be the primary contributor to future upward pressure on
food commodity prices.

Supply response capacity of the global agricultural production system:

• Cost of inputs: Continued increases in production costs, especially in energy-related costs,
will restrain the world’s production response. Higher costs for fertilizer, fuel, and seeds could
cause farmers without access to credit to plant less than they otherwise would have, or to shift to
crops requiring fewer inputs.

9. Conclusion

The prices of corn fluctuate every year as it is volatile due to numerous factors. This includes the
consumption, economic activity, weather conditions, and many more. But regardless of the
fluctuations of both oil and corn, it is still bought which is why both are inelastic.

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Oil does have an influence on the price of the corn as it is involved throughout the process of
production until the moment it is in the hands of the consumer.

References

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at: https://www.noble.org/news/publications/ag-news-and-views/2013/july/supply-and-demand-
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Agmrc.org. 2021. Ethanol, Gasoline, Crude Oil and Corn Prices: Are the Relationships Changing? |
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energy/renewable-energy-climate-change-report/renewable-energy-climate-change-report/march--
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Investopedia. 2021. If a particular good's price elasticity is high, does this mean the supplier should
increase the supply, decrease it, or keep it constant?. [online] Available at:
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