Cheuvreux Novozymes - Model 2006
Cheuvreux Novozymes - Model 2006
Cheuvreux Novozymes - Model 2006
EPS ###
Growth (%)
No of shares (millions) ###
Dividend
Dividend/EPS
Sales incl. Surfactants
EPS incl. Surfactants
Sales incl. Biomass
EPS incl. Biomass
Sales incl. Surfactants & Biomass
EPS incl. Surfactants & Biomass ###
Sales growth 12m rolling
Clean EBIT margin 12m rolling
Mkt Cap. (DKKm)
Price
P/E
EPS 5 YRS CAGR
PEG
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA 12m forward
EV/EBIT
EV/EBIT 12m forward
EV/Sales
EV/Sales 12m fwd
SALES 5 YRS CAGR
EBIT 5 YRS CAGR
EBITDA margin 3 YRS
EPS 5 YRS CAGR
P/E 12m rolling
EBIT margin 12m rolling
Net debt
Net debt/EBITDA
Interest rate paid
Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05
1352 1445 1469 1424 1387 1454 1529 1528
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.6% 0.6% 4.1% 7.3%
81 83 67 67 74 82 77 75
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -8.6% -1.2% 14.9% 11.9%
0 0 0 0 15 25 14 21
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
4.9%
18.2% 18.3% 19.2% 18.9% 19.2%
Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07
1516 1538 1658 1608 1727 1661 1759 1759
9.3% 5.8% 8.4% 5.2% 13.9% 8.0% 6.1% 9.4%
94 90 83 81 84 91 71 62
27.0% 9.8% 7.8% 8.0% -10.6% 1.1% -14.5% -23.5%
23 21 15 75 120 51 30 23
53.3% -16.0% 7.1% 257.1% 421.7% 142.9% 100.0% -69.3%
0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1633.0 1649.0 1756.0 1764.0 1931.0 1803.0 1860.0 1844.0
10.6% 5.6% 8.4% 8.6% 18.2% 9.3% 5.9% 4.5%
14.0%
-751 -736 -807 -853 -927 -834 -870 -858
882.0 913.0 949.0 911.0 1004.0 969.0 990.0 986.0
54.0% 55.4% 54.0% 51.6% 52.0% 53.7% 53.2% 53.5%
-245 -215 -223 -312
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -12.7% -11.9% -12.0% -16.9%
-225 -225 -242 -229
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -11.7% -12.5% -13.0% -12.4%
-569 -569 -600 -577 -189 -175 -164 -147
-34.8% -34.5% -34.2% -32.7% -9.8% -9.7% -8.8% -8.0%
14 75 34
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 4.2% 0.0% 1.8%
Outlook for 2006 NZYM ACTUAL Outlook for 2007 NZYM ACTUAL
Sales growth 8% 8% Sales growth 8-10% 9%
EBIT growth 10% 11% EBIT growth 11-13% 11%
Net profit growth 5-6% 6% Net profit growth 14-16% 15%
Free cash flow 950-1000 795 Free cash flow 850-950 1,534
Long term financial targets Long term financial targets
Annual growth in EBIT of at least 10% Annual growth in EBIT of at least 10%
Operating profit margin of around 17% Operating profit margin of around 17%
6.7% 7.6% 8.4% 8.3% 10.3% 11.2% 10.4% 9.4%
19.3% 19.4% 19.6% 19.7% 19.3% 19.1% 18.9% 18.3%
Outlook for 2008 NZYM ACTUAL Outlook for 2009 NZYM CDV
Sales growth 9-11% 10% Sales growth >2% 4%
EBIT growth 5-7% 7% EBIT growth 10-12% 12%
Net profit growth 7-9% 8% Net profit growth 8-10% 12%
Free cash flow 750-800 755 Free cash flow 400-500 553
Long term financial targets Long term financial targets
Annual sales growth of at least 10% Annual sales growth of more than 10%
Operating profit margin of around 17% Operating profit margin of 20%
6.1%
18.4%
965 2,092
1.4 1.0
0.2% 4.6%
2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
7533 7798 8415 9501 10469 12657 14408 16776
9.1% 3.5% 7.9% 12.9% 10.2% 20.9% 13.8% 16.4%
405 415 423 465 511 562 619 680
31.5% 2.5% 1.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
208 235 227 250 275 302 332 366
-7.1% 13.0% -3.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8145.8 8447.8 9064.5 10215.8 11254.4 13521.0 15358.5 17821.8
9.5% 3.7% 7.3% 12.7% 10.2% 20.1% 13.6% 16.0%
13.0% 2.0% 7.3% 12.7% 10.2% 20.1% 13.6% 16.0%
-3787 -3748 -4030 -4357 -4896 -5882 -6681 -7752
4359.0 4700.0 5034.9 5858.9 6358.8 7639.4 8677.6 10069.3
53.5% 55.6% 55.5% 57.4% 56.5% 56.5% 56.5% 56.5%
-1171 -1172 -1178 -1328 -1463 -1758 -1997 -2317
-14.4% -13.9% -13.0% -13.0% -13.0% -13.0% -13.0% -13.0%
-907 -957 -974 -1098 -1209 -1453 -1650 -1915
-11.1% -11.3% -10.7% -10.7% -10.7% -10.7% -10.7% -10.7%
-776 -883 -946 -1103 -1215 -1460 -1659 -1925
-9.5% -10.5% -10.4% -10.8% -10.8% -10.8% -10.8% -10.8%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1503.6 1687.8 1936.6 2330.0 2471.1 2968.7 3372.2 3913.0
18.5% 20.0% 21.4% 22.8% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
1507 1619 1811 2045 2253 2724 3101 3611
41 40 42 46 51 56 62 68
21 24 23 25 27 30 33 37
1 6 2 4 5 7 8 9
1569.2 1689.3 1878.0 2120.1 2336.7 2817.0 3203.6 3723.8
65.6 1.5 -58.6 -210.0 -134.4 -151.7 -168.6 -189.2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-556 -564 -655 -662 -675 -675 -675 -675
-6.8% -6.7% -7.2% -6.5% -6.0% -5.0% -4.4% -3.8%
2059.6 2252.2 2591.6 2991.7 3146.6 3644.2 4047.7 4588.5
25.3% 26.7% 28.6% 29.3% 28.0% 27.0% 26.4% 25.7%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-85 -68 -13 29 83 83 83 83
-1.0% -0.8% -0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%
1418.6 1619.8 1923.7 2358.7 2553.8 3051.5 3454.9 3995.8
2.4% 14.2% 18.8% 22.6% 8.3% 19.5% 13.2% 15.7%
-357 -427 -462 -566 -613 -732 -829 -959
-25.2% -26.4% -24.0% -24.0% -24.0% -24.0% -24.0% -24.0%
0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1061.6 1192.8 1460.9 1792.5 1940.8 2319.0 2625.6 3036.6
-23.7% -25.3% -23.8% -24.3% -24.8% -24.7% -24.6% -24.5%
17.15 19.21 23.53 28.87 31.25 37.35 42.28 48.90
1% 12% 22% 23% 8% 19% 13% 16%
61.9 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1
20.0
27.1
15.0
1,704 1,354 754
0.8 0.6 0.3
10.0
5.0% 5.0% 1.7%
5.0
0.0
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
5.0
0.0
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Cellulosic Biofuel
Growth
Other Biofuel
Growth
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Novozymes sales,
2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
2672 2849 3193 3596 4396 4856 5332 5825 6336 6463 6592 6724
7.0% 6.6% 12.1% 12.6% 22.3% 10.5% 9.8% 9.3% 8.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2600 2927 3443 3760 4877 5874 7443 8874 10276 11938 13566 15726
4.9% 12.6% 17.6% 9.2% 29.7% 20.4% 26.7% 19.2% 15.8% 16.2% 13.6% 15.9%
1801 1893 2082 2290 2519 2771 3048 3201 3361 3529 3705 3891
-0.6% 5.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
725 746 783 823 864 907 952 1000 1050 1102 1157 1215
-2.6% 2.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
7798 8415 9501 10469 12657 14408 16776 18900 21023 23032 25021 27556
3.5% 7.9% 12.9% 10.2% 20.9% 13.8% 16.4% 12.7% 11.2% 9.6% 8.6% 10.1%
1.0%
12.9%
12.4%
2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
2672 2769 2825 2881 2939 2998 3058 3119 3181 3245 3310 3376
7.0% 3.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
0 80 368 714 1457 1858 2274 2707 3155 3218 3283 3348
#DIV/0! 360.0% 94.0% 104.0% 27.5% 22.4% 19.0% 16.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2672 2849 3193 3596 4396 4856 5332 5825 6336 6463 6592 6724
7.0% 6.6% 12.1% 12.6% 22.3% 10.5% 9.8% 9.3% 8.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
1496 1751 2237 2524 3609 4574 6110 7514 8889 10523 12123 14253
8.3% 17.1% 27.8% 12.8% 43.0% 26.7% 33.6% 23.0% 18.3% 18.4% 15.2% 17.6%
591 639 658 678 698 719 740 755 770 786 801 817
1.1% 8.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
513 537 548 559 570 581 593 605 617 629 642 655
0.0% 4.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2600 2927 3443 3760 4877 5874 7443 8874 10276 11938 13566 15726
4.9% 12.6% 17.6% 9.2% 29.7% 20.4% 26.7% 19.2% 15.8% 16.2% 13.6% 15.9%
hanol output (2007 Energy bill states goal of 36bn gallons of renewable fuels out of which 21bn gallons should be bioethanol by 2022)
2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
10.50 12.00 12.60 13.20 13.80 14.40 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00
17% 14% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0.10 0.21 0.55 1.00 2.75 3.75 5.50 7.25 9.00 11.00 13.00 15.00
0.01 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.75 3.00 4.25 5.50 7.00 8.50 10.50
3746% 100% 100% 75% 71% 42% 29% 27% 21% 24%
0.10 0.20 0.30 0.50 1.75 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.50
100% 50% 67% 250% 14% 25% 20% 17% 14% 13% 0%
10.60 12.21 13.15 14.20 16.55 18.15 20.50 22.25 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00
18% 15% 8% 8% 17% 10% 13% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7%
10.50 12.01 12.85 13.70 14.80 16.15 18.00 19.25 20.50 22.00 23.50 25.50
17% 14% 7% 7% 8% 9% 11% 7% 6% 7% 7% 9%
8% 9% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 19%
2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
10.50 12.00 12.60 13.20 13.80 14.40 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04
-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%
5.35 5.28 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10
2781 3105 3729 3867 4003 4135 4264 4222 4179 4138 4096 4055
60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
1668 1863 2237 2320 2402 2481 2559 2533 2508 2483 2458 2433
2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
0.00 0.08 0.17 1.00 1.75 3.00 4.25 5.50 7.00 8.50 10.50
0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46
-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%
5.28 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10
0 0 508 3020 5231 8878 12452 15953 20101 24164 29551
40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
0 0 203 1208 2093 3551 4981 6381 8040 9666 11820
#DIV/0! 494% 73% 70% 40% 28% 26% 20% 22%
0% 0% 2% 10% 16% 25% 33% 40% 50% 58% 69%
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
31176 34195
13.1% 9.7%
56.5% 56.5%
21.5% 21.5%
ld be bioethanol by 2022)
2021E 2022E
15.00 15.00
0% 0%
18.00 21.00
13.50 16.00
29% 19%
4.50 5.00
0% 11%
33.00 36.00
10% 9%
28.50 31.00
12% 9%
21% 23%
2021E 2022E
15.00 15.00
0.04 0.04
-1% -1%
6.10 6.10
4015 3975
60% 60%
2409 2385
2021E 2022E
13.50 16.00
0.46 0.45
-1% -1%
6.10 6.10
37614 44134
40% 40%
15046 17654
27% 17%
86% 98%
021E 2022E
Microorganisms Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05
Sales (DKKm) 81 83 67 67 74 82
Growth (%) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -8.6% -1.2%
Organic growth (%)
12m rolling growth (%) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 259.3% 76.8%
EBIT (DKKm) 12 12 4 13 8 6
EBIT margin (%) 14.8% 14.5% 6.0% 19.4% 10.8% 7.3%
7 1 9 9 8 8 8 9 7
9.1% 1.3% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09
62 132 126 83 64 160 117 85 53
-23.5% 57.1% 38.5% 16.9% 3.2% 21.2% -7.1% 2.4% -17.2%
17.0% 2.0% 1.0%
-11.5%
6 13 13 8 6 16 11 8 5
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 9.5% 9.5% 10.0%
Q1/10 Q2/10E Q3/10E Q4/10E 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
142 129 94 58 298 308 348 308 405
-11.3% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 3.4% 13.0% -11.5% 31.5%
14 13 9 6 41 22 35 31 41
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 13.8% 7.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
415 423 465 511 562 619 680 714 750
2.5% 1.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0%
8.0%
40 42 46 51 56 62 68 71 75
9.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
7.9%
7.1%
2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E NZYM 2009 Outlook NZYM Long-term expectation
788 827 868 912 957 DKK Organic New
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0% -10%
79 83 87 91 96
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
NZYM Long-term expectations
Old
10%
Biopharma Ingredients Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Sales (DKKm) 15 25 14 21 23 21
Growth (%) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 53.3% -16.0%
Organic growth (%)
12m rolling growth (%) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 453.3% 97.5%
EBIT (DKKm) 0 0
EBIT margin (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0 0 12 5 3 2 5 5 2
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10E Q3/10E Q4/10E
93 55 43 45 92 29 47 50 101
304.3% 3.8% -6.5% 181.3% -1.1% -47.3% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
16.0% -6.0% 29.0%
-7.1% 33.8% 36.2% 71.0% 13.0%
9 6 4 5 9 3 5 5 10
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
0 75 134 224 208 235 227 250 275
78.7% 67.2% -7.1% 13.0% -3.4% 10.0% 10.0%
8.0%
0 0 0 45 73 94 91 100 110
#DIV/0! 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 34.9% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
0 0 0 22 21 24 23 25 27
#DIV/0! 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
6.5%
3.1%
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
302 332 366 384 403 423 444 467 490
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
30 33 37 38 40 42 44 47 49
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
2022E NZYM 2009 Outlook NZYM Long-term expectations
514 DKK Organic New Old
5.0% 10% 5% 10-15%
206
40.0%
51
10.0%
FX EBIT impact (DKKm)
min max
EUR 2.25% 50 60 →
USD 5% 45 65 →
JPY 5% 5 10 →
TOTAL 77 5%
102
EBIT impact (DKKm) % of EBIT 2010E
min max average
10% 222 267 244 13%
10% 90 130 110 6%
10% 10 20 15 1%
EBIT 2009E
EBIT 2009E
USDDKK JPYDKK
1/1/2010 5.1762 1/1/2010 5.5546
1/2/2010 5.1762 1/2/2010 5.5546
1/3/2010 5.1955 1/3/2010 5.5959
1/4/2010 5.1586 1/4/2010 5.5772
1/5/2010 5.18 1/5/2010 5.6508
1/6/2010 5.1659 1/6/2010 5.5902
1/7/2010 5.1945 1/7/2010 5.5578
1/8/2010 5.1645 1/8/2010 5.5721
1/9/2010 5.1645 1/9/2010 5.5721
1/10/2010 5.1442 1/10/2010 5.566
1/11/2010 5.1281 1/11/2010 5.5604
1/12/2010 5.1373 1/12/2010 5.6356
1/13/2010 5.1225 1/13/2010 5.6
1/14/2010 5.131 1/14/2010 5.6166
1/15/2010 5.1726 1/15/2010 5.697
1/16/2010 5.1716 1/16/2010 5.697
1/17/2010 5.1771 1/17/2010 5.6894
1/18/2010 5.1659 1/18/2010 5.6921
1/19/2010 5.2087 1/19/2010 5.7091
1/20/2010 5.2723 1/20/2010 5.7778
1/21/2010 5.2784 1/21/2010 5.8444
1/22/2010 5.2647 1/22/2010 5.8539
1/23/2010 5.2674 1/23/2010 5.8539
1/24/2010 5.258 1/24/2010 5.8326
1/25/2010 5.2615 1/25/2010 5.8122
1/26/2010 5.2859 1/26/2010 5.8929
1/27/2010 5.304 1/27/2010 5.8907
1/28/2010 5.3302 1/28/2010 5.9322
1/29/2010 5.3705 1/29/2010 5.9487
1/30/2010 5.3702 1/30/2010 5.9487
1/31/2010 5.3632 1/31/2010 5.9455
2/1/2010 5.3455 2/1/2010 5.886
2/2/2010 5.327 2/2/2010 5.8876
2/3/2010 5.3554 2/3/2010 5.8874
2/4/2010 5.4147 2/4/2010 6.0541
2/5/2010 5.4469 2/5/2010 6.0934
2/6/2010 5.4465 2/6/2010 6.0934
2/7/2010 5.4544 2/7/2010 6.1046
2/8/2010 5.4502 2/8/2010 6.1033
2/9/2010 5.4017 2/9/2010 6.0105
2/10/2010 5.4131 2/10/2010 6.0114
2/11/2010 5.4388 2/11/2010 6.0519
2/12/2010 5.4585 2/12/2010 6.0655
2/13/2010 5.4639 2/13/2010 6.0655
2/14/2010 5.4619 2/14/2010 6.06
2/15/2010 5.4712 2/15/2010 6.07
2/16/2010 5.4077 2/16/2010 5.98
2/17/2010 5.4687 2/17/2010 6
2/18/2010 5.5243 2/18/2010 6
2/19/2010 5.4663 2/19/2010 5.9703
2/20/2010 5.4646 2/20/2010 5.9683
2/21/2010 5.46 2/21/2010 5.95
2/22/2010 5.4693 2/22/2010 5.99
2/23/2010 5.5005 2/23/2010 6.1
2/24/2010 5.4947 2/24/2010 6.08
2/25/2010 5.4977 2/25/2010 6.15
2/26/2010 5.4646 2/26/2010 6.1468
2/27/2010 5.4646 2/27/2010 6.1468
2/28/2010 5.4545 2/28/2010 6.13
3/1/2010 5.4874 3/1/2010 6.15
3/2/2010 5.4636 3/2/2010 6.15
3/3/2010 5.431 3/3/2010 6.12
3/4/2010 5.4789 3/4/2010 6.14
3/5/2010 5.4624 3/5/2010 6.0725
3/6/2010 5.4602 3/7/2010 6.02
3/7/2010 5.4561 3/8/2010 6.04
3/8/2010 5.4637 3/9/2010 6.07
3/9/2010 5.4678 3/10/2010 6.02
3/10/2010 5.4526 3/11/2010 5.99
3/11/2010 5.4368 3/12/2010 5.9655
3/12/2010 5.4062 3/13/2010 5.9655
3/13/2010 5.4026 3/14/2010 5.95
3/14/2010 5.4016 3/15/2010 6.02
3/15/2010 5.4405 3/16/2010 5.98
3/16/2010 5.4028 3/17/2010 5.98
3/17/2010 5.4151 3/18/2010 6.03
3/18/2010 5.4651 3/19/2010 6.07
3/19/2010 5.4992 3/20/2010 6.07
3/20/2010 5.4983 3/21/2010 6.08
3/21/2010 5.5055 3/22/2010 6.06
3/22/2010 5.4834 3/23/2010 6.11
3/23/2010 5.5232 3/24/2010 6.06
3/24/2010 5.5811 3/25/2010 6.04
3/25/2010 5.591 3/26/2010 5.9932
3/26/2010 5.5485 3/27/2010 5.9932
3/27/2010 5.5479 3/28/2010 5.98
3/28/2010 5.5342 3/29/2010 5.96
3/29/2010 5.5167 3/30/2010 5.96
3/30/2010 5.5419 3/31/2010 5.88
3/31/2010 5.5004 4/1/2010 5.84
4/1/2010 5.4787 4/2/2010 5.8232
4/2/2010 5.5183 4/3/2010 5.8232
4/3/2010 5.5122 4/4/2010 5.83
4/4/2010 5.5175 4/5/2010 5.86
4/5/2010 5.5287 4/6/2010 5.94
4/6/2010 5.5621 4/7/2010 5.98
4/7/2010 5.5833 4/8/2010 5.95
4/8/2010 5.564 4/9/2010 5.9142
4/9/2010 5.5143 4/10/2010 5.9142
4/10/2010 5.5143 4/11/2010 5.85
4/11/2010 5.4487 4/12/2010 5.87
4/12/2010 5.4775 4/13/2010 5.86
4/13/2010 5.4666 4/14/2010 5.83
4/14/2010 5.4473 4/15/2010 5.88
4/15/2010 5.4862 4/16/2010 5.9761
4/16/2010 5.5121 4/17/2010 5.9761
4/17/2010 5.5101 4/18/2010 5.9925
4/18/2010 5.5214 4/19/2010 5.96
4/19/2010 5.5157 4/20/2010 5.95
4/20/2010 5.5434 4/21/2010 5.97
4/21/2010 5.5584 4/22/2010 6.01
4/22/2010 5.6268 4/23/2010 5.918
4/23/2010 5.5609 4/25/2010 5.91
4/24/2010 5.5544 4/26/2010 5.94
4/25/2010 5.5684 6.64
4/26/2010 5.5536 6.64
4/27/2010 5.6459 6.64
4/28/2010 5.6379 6.64
4/29/2010 5.6162 6.64
4/30/2010 5.5997 6.64
5/1/2010 5.5973 6.64
5/2/2010 5.5895 6.64
5/3/2010 5.6389 6.64
5/4/2010 5.7347 6.64
5/5/2010 5.8066 6.64
5/6/2010 5.8821 6.64
5/7/2010 5.8451 6.64
5/8/2010 5.83 6.64
5/9/2010 5.7828 6.64
5/10/2010 5.8398 6.64
5/11/2010 5.8872 6.64
5/12/2010 5.8831 6.64
5/13/2010 5.9354 6.64
5/14/2010 6.018 6.64
5/15/2010 6.0187 6.64
5/16/2010 6.0188 6.64
5/17/2010 6.0083 6.64
5/18/2010 6.1255 6.64
5/19/2010 6.0072 6.64
5/20/2010 5.9339 6.64
5/21/2010 5.9221 6.64
5/22/2010 5.9184 6.64
5/23/2010 5.947 6.64
5/24/2010 6.0313 6.64
5/25/2010 6.0324 6.64
5/26/2010 6.1061 6.64
5/27/2010 6.0146 6.64
5/28/2010 6.062 6.64
5/29/2010 6.0587 6.64
5/30/2010 6.0533 6.64
5/31/2010 6.0623 6.64
6/1/2010 6.0726 6.64
6/2/2010 6.0726 6.64
6/3/2010 6.1095 6.64
6/4/2010 6.2137 6.64
6/5/2010 6.2143 6.64
6/6/2010 6.234 6.64
6/7/2010 6.2372 6.64
6/8/2010 6.2187 6.64
6/9/2010 6.2046 6.64
6/10/2010 6.1319 6.64
6/11/2010 6.14 6.64
6/12/2010 6.1358 6.64
6/13/2010 6.0934 6.64
6/14/2010 6.0887 6.64
6/15/2010 6.0376 6.64
6/16/2010 6.0476 6.64
6/17/2010 6.0068 6.64
6/18/2010 6.0043 6.64
6/19/2010 6.0121 6.64
6/20/2010 5.9918 6.64
6/21/2010 6.0382 6.64
6/22/2010 6.0671 6.64
6/23/2010 6.0459 6.64
6/24/2010 6.0324 6.64
6/25/2010 6.0093 6.64
6/26/2010 6.0113 6.64
6/27/2010 6.0092 6.64
6/28/2010 6.0597 6.64
6/29/2010 6.1105 6.64
6/30/2010 6.0909 6.64
7/1/2010 5.9528 6.64
7/2/2010 5.9295 6.64
7/3/2010 5.9295 6.64
7/4/2010 5.936 6.64
7/5/2010 5.9582 6.64
7/6/2010 5.904 6.64
7/7/2010 5.9031 6.64
7/8/2010 5.8741 6.64
7/9/2010 5.896 6.64
7/10/2010 5.8945 6.64
7/11/2010 5.8982 6.64
7/12/2010 5.9142 6.64
7/13/2010 5.862 6.64
7/14/2010 5.85 6.64
7/15/2010 5.7651 6.64
7/16/2010 5.7633 6.64
7/17/2010 5.7587 6.64
7/18/2010 5.7806 6.64
7/19/2010 5.7583 6.64
7/20/2010 5.7736 6.64
7/21/2010 5.8399 6.64
7/22/2010 5.7708 6.64
7/23/2010 5.7692 6.64
7/24/2010 5.7692 6.64
7/25/2010 5.7656 6.64
7/26/2010 5.741 6.64
7/27/2010 5.7357 6.64
7/28/2010 5.7316 6.64
7/29/2010 5.7022 6.64
7/30/2010 5.7163 6.64
7/31/2010 5.7078 6.64
8/1/2010 5.7042 6.64
8/2/2010 5.6552 6.64
8/3/2010 5.6351 6.64
8/4/2010 5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.6571 6.64
5.650934 6.403707
1/1/2010 5.1762
1/2/2010 5.1762
1/3/2010 5.1955
1/4/2010 5.1586
1/5/2010 5.18
1/6/2010 5.1659
1/7/2010 5.1945
1/8/2010 5.1645
1/9/2010 5.1645
1/10/2010 5.1442
1/11/2010 5.1281
1/12/2010 5.1373
1/13/2010 5.1225
1/14/2010 5.131
1/15/2010 5.1726
1/16/2010 5.1716
1/17/2010 5.1771
1/18/2010 5.1659
1/19/2010 5.2087
1/20/2010 5.2723
1/21/2010 5.2784
1/22/2010 5.2647
1/23/2010 5.2674
1/24/2010 5.258
1/25/2010 5.2615
1/26/2010 5.2859
1/27/2010 5.304
1/28/2010 5.3302
1/29/2010 5.3705
1/30/2010 5.3702
1/31/2010 5.3632
2/1/2010 5.3455
2/2/2010 5.327
2/3/2010 5.3554
2/4/2010 5.4147
2/5/2010 5.4469
2/6/2010 5.4465
2/7/2010 5.4544
2/8/2010 5.4502
2/9/2010 5.4017
2/10/2010 5.4131
2/11/2010 5.4388
2/12/2010 5.4585
2/13/2010 5.4639
2/14/2010 5.4619
2/15/2010 5.4712
2/16/2010 5.4077
2/17/2010 5.4687
2/18/2010 5.5243
2/19/2010 5.4663
2/20/2010 5.4646
2/21/2010 5.46
2/22/2010 5.4693
2/23/2010 5.5005
2/24/2010 5.4947
2/25/2010 5.4977
2/26/2010 5.4646
2/27/2010 5.4646
2/28/2010 5.4545
3/1/2010 5.4874
3/2/2010 5.4636
3/3/2010 5.431
3/4/2010 5.4789
3/5/2010 5.4624
3/6/2010 5.4602
3/7/2010 5.4561
3/8/2010 5.4637
3/9/2010 5.4678
3/10/2010 5.4526
3/11/2010 5.4368
3/12/2010 5.4062
3/13/2010 5.4026
3/14/2010 5.4016
3/15/2010 5.4405
3/16/2010 5.4028
3/17/2010 5.4151
3/18/2010 5.4651
3/19/2010 5.4992
3/20/2010 5.4983
3/21/2010 5.5055
3/22/2010 5.4834
3/23/2010 5.5232
3/24/2010 5.5811
3/25/2010 5.591
3/26/2010 5.5485
3/27/2010 5.5479
3/28/2010 5.5342
3/29/2010 5.5167
3/30/2010 5.5419
3/31/2010 5.5004
4/1/2010 5.4787
4/2/2010 5.5183
4/3/2010 5.5122
4/4/2010 5.5175
4/5/2010 5.5287
4/6/2010 5.5621
4/7/2010 5.5833
4/8/2010 5.564
4/9/2010 5.5143
4/10/2010 5.5143
4/11/2010 5.4487
4/12/2010 5.4775
4/13/2010 5.4666
4/14/2010 5.4473
4/15/2010 5.4862
4/16/2010 5.5121
4/17/2010 5.5101
4/18/2010 5.5214
4/19/2010 5.5157
4/20/2010 5.5434
4/21/2010 5.5584
4/22/2010 5.6268
4/23/2010 5.5609
4/24/2010 5.5544
4/25/2010 5.5684
4/26/2010 5.5536
4/27/2010 5.6459
4/28/2010 5.6379
4/29/2010 5.6162
4/30/2010 5.5997
5/1/2010 5.5973
5/2/2010 5.5895
5/3/2010 5.6389
5/4/2010 5.7347
5/5/2010 5.8066
5/6/2010 5.8821
5/7/2010 5.8451
5/8/2010 5.83
5/9/2010 5.7828
5/10/2010 5.8398
5/11/2010 5.8872
5/12/2010 5.8831
5/13/2010 5.9354
5/14/2010 6.018
5/15/2010 6.0187
5/16/2010 6.0188
5/17/2010 6.0083
5/18/2010 6.1255
5/19/2010 6.0072
5/20/2010 5.9339
5/21/2010 5.9221
5/22/2010 5.9184
5/23/2010 5.947
5/24/2010 6.0313
5/25/2010 6.0324
5/26/2010 6.1061
5/27/2010 6.0146
5/28/2010 6.062
5/29/2010 6.0587
5/30/2010 6.0533
5/31/2010 6.0623
6/1/2010 6.0726
6/2/2010 6.0726
6/3/2010 6.1095
6/4/2010 6.2137
6/5/2010 6.2143
6/6/2010 6.234
6/7/2010 6.2372
6/8/2010 6.2187
6/9/2010 6.2046
6/10/2010 6.1319
6/11/2010 6.14
6/12/2010 6.1358
6/13/2010 6.0934
6/14/2010 6.0887
6/15/2010 6.0376
6/16/2010 6.0476
6/17/2010 6.0068
6/18/2010 6.0043
6/19/2010 6.0121
6/20/2010 5.9918
6/21/2010 6.0382
6/22/2010 6.0671
6/23/2010 6.0459
6/24/2010 6.0324
6/25/2010 6.0093
6/26/2010 6.0113
6/27/2010 6.0092
6/28/2010 6.0597
6/29/2010 6.1105
6/30/2010 6.0909
7/1/2010 5.9528
7/2/2010 5.9295
7/3/2010 5.9295
7/4/2010 5.936
7/5/2010 5.9582
7/6/2010 5.904
7/7/2010 5.9031
7/8/2010 5.8741
7/9/2010 5.896
7/10/2010 5.8945
7/11/2010 5.8982
7/12/2010 5.9142
7/13/2010 5.862
7/14/2010 5.85
7/15/2010 5.7651
7/16/2010 5.7633
7/17/2010 5.7587
7/18/2010 5.7806
7/19/2010 5.7583
7/20/2010 5.7736
7/21/2010 5.8399
7/22/2010 5.7708
7/23/2010 5.7692
7/24/2010 5.7692
7/25/2010 5.7656
7/26/2010 5.741
7/27/2010 5.7357
7/28/2010 5.7316
7/29/2010 5.7022
7/30/2010 5.7163
7/31/2010 5.7078
8/1/2010 5.7042
8/2/2010 5.6552
8/3/2010 5.6351
8/4/2010 5.6571
Novozymes distribution of COGS (2006)
Raw materials 30%
Labour 25%
Energy 35%
Depreciation etc. 10%
Total 100%
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
DKKm 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sales 5988 6281 6802 7438
Growth 5% 8% 9%
COGS
Raw materials 851 881 944 1340
Growth 3% 7% 42%
Labour 722 741 760 876
Growth 3% 3% 15%
Energy 933 988 1122 933
Growth 6% 14% -17%
Depreciation, amortization and impairment losses 332 326 321 340
Growth -2% -2% 6%
Total COGS 2838 2936 3147 3489
Growth 3% 7% 11%
Gross profit 3150 3345 3655 3949
Growth 6% 9% 8%
Gross margin 52.6% 53.3% 53.7% 53.1%
Total OpEx 2061 2139 2315 2468
Growth 4% 8% 7%
EBIT 1089 1206 1340 1481
Growth 11% 11% 11%
EBIT margin 18.2% 19.2% 19.7% 19.9%
EPS 11.51 13.10 14.46 16.93
Growth 14% 10% 17%
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
8146 8448 9064 10216
10% 4% 7% 13%
more more
qualifed qualifed
Currency split: guess guess guess guess
GBP 20% 20%
DEM 20% 20%
French Franc 20% 20%
Spanish Pesetas 10% 10%
Italian Lire 10% 10%
USD 10% 10% 30% 30%
JPY 10% 10% 14% 14%
CNY 5% 5%
Brasilian Real 4% 4%
Mexican Pesos 5% 4%
EURO 0% 0% 42% 43%
Net sales by business area (2001 - ) Sales by Product Area Detergent enzymes: Sales and growth (Q1/07-Q4/08E) Other tech. enzymes: Sales and growth (Q1/07-Q4/08E) Food enzymes: Sales and growth (Q1/07-Q4/08E) Feed enzymes: Sales and growth (Q1/07-Q4/08E) Microorganisms: Sales and growth (Q1/07-Q4/08E) Biopharma Ingredients: Sales and growth (Q1/07-Q4/08E)
700 16% 800 25% 600 16% 200 20% 140 70% 140 500%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Microorganisms Biopharma ingredients 600 14% 700 14% 195
15% 120
60%
Detergent enzymes 2040 2239 2498 2672 2849 3193 3596 4396 3% 20% 500 120 400%
5% 12% 600 12% 190 50%
Growth 9.8% 11.6% 7.0% 6.6% 12.1% 12.6% 22.3% Detergent enzymes 500 10% 185 10% 100 40% 100
Feed enzymes 10% 500 400 300%
Bioethanol enzymes 705 1003 1381 1496 1751 2237 2524 3609 8% 31% 400 15% 8% 180 30%
5% 80 80
Growth 42.3% 37.7% 8.3% 17.1% 27.8% 12.8% 43.0% 8% 400 300 6% 175 20% 200%
Starch enzymes 614 611 584 591 639 658 678 698 300 10% 4% 170 0% 60 10% 60
6% 300
Growth -0.4% -4.4% 1.1% 8.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Food enzymes 200 200 2% 165 0% 100%
4% 200 -5% 40 40
Textile and other technical enzymes 659 650 513 513 537 548 559 570 21% 5% 0% 160 -10%
100 2% 100 100 -10% 20 20 0%
Growth -1.4% -21.1% 0.0% 4.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% -2% 155 -20%
Food enzymes 1603 1699 1812 1801 1893 2082 2290 2519 Bioethanol enzymes 0 0% 0 0% 0 -4% 150 -15% 0 -30% 0 -100%
Growth 6.0% 6.7% -0.6% 5.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Textile and other technical enzymes 19% Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08
Feed enzymes 700 705 744 725 746 783 823 864 6% Starch enzymes
7% Detergent enzymes Growth (%) Detergent enzymes Growth (%) Food enzymes Growth (%) Feed enzymes Growth (%) Microorganisms Growth (%) Biopharma Ingredients Growth (%)
Growth 0.7% 5.5% -2.6% 2.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Enzymes 6321 6907 7533 7798 8415 9501 10469 12657 EBIT by Business Area Detergent enzymes: Sales and growth (2004-2010E) Other technical enzymes: Sales and growth (2004-2010E) Food enzymes: Sales and growth (2004-2010E) Feed enzymes: Sales and growth (2004-2010E) Microorganisms: Sales and growth (2004-2010E) Biopharma Ingredients: Sales and growth (2004-2010E)
Growth 9.3% 9.1% 3.5% 7.9% 12.9% 10.2% 20.9%
Microorganisms 348 308 405 415 423 465 511 562 3000 14% 3500 25% 2000 8% 760 8% 450 35% 250 100%
Growth -11.5% 31.5% 2.5% 1.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Microorganisms Biopharma ingredients 12% 1800 7% 750 6% 400 30%
2500 3000 80%
Biopharma ingredients 134 224 208 235 227 250 275 302 2% 1% 20% 1600 6% 740 350 25% 200
10% 2500 4%
Growth 67.2% -7.1% 13.0% -3.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 2000 1400 5% 730 300 20% 60%
Total 6803 7439 8146 8448 9064 10216 11254 13521 8% 15% 1200 4% 2% 15% 150
2000 720 250
Growth 9.4% 9.5% 3.7% 7.3% 12.7% 10.2% 20.1% 1500 6% 1000 3% 0% 10% 40%
1500 710 200
4% 10% 800 2% -2% 5% 100
EBIT by business area (2001 - ) 1000 600 1% 700 150 0% 20%
2% 1000 -4%
Enzymes 5% 400 0% 690 100 -5% 50
500 500 0%
96% 0% 200 -1% 680 -6% 50 -10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Enzymes 917 954 992 1048 1184 1312 1355 1507 1619 0 -2% 0 0% 0 -2% 670 -8% 0 -15% 0 -20%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
Microorganisms 1 10 6 41 22 35 31 41 40
Detergent enzymes Growth (%) Detergent enzymes Growth (%) Food enzymes Growth (%) Feed enzymes Growth (%) Microorganisms Growth (%) Biopharma Ingredients Growth (%)
Biopharma ingredients 0 22 21 24 Sales by Geographic Area Key data Key data Key data Key data
DKKm 2007 2008 2009E 2010E DKKm 2007 2008 2009E 2010E DKKm 2007 2008 2009E 2010E DKKm 2007 2008 2009E 2010E
Detergent enzymes 2239 2498 2672 2769 Bioethanol enzymes 1003 1381 1496 1751 Total sales 1699 1812 1801 1893 Total sales 705 744 725 746
Asia Pacific
Growth 10% 12% 7% 4% Growth 42% 38% 8% 17% Growth 6% 7% -1% 5% Growth 1% 6% -3% 3%
18%
Total 918 964 998 1089 1206 1346 1408 1568 1683 North America Surfactant replacement 0 80 Starch enzymes 611 584 591 639
37% Growth NM NM Growth 0% -4% 1% 8%
Total sales 2239 2498 2672 2849 Textile enzymes 650 513 513 537
Growth 10% 12% 7% 7% Growth -1% -21% 0% 5%
Total sales 2264 2479 2600 2927
Net sales by geographic area (2001 - ) Growth 14% 9% 5% 13%
Latin America 8% 7% 7% 7% Enzymes: Market shares US Bioethanol production (Renewable Fuels Standard)
2005 2006E
Novozymes 50% Others Novozymes
Others 50% 50% 50%
Total 100.0%
Laundry 80%
Dishwasher 20%
Detergent Enzymes
Protease 60%
Amylase 20%
Lipase 7%
Cellulase 7%
Mannanase 7%
Total 100%
Surfactants 39%
Builders 16%
Bleach 13%
Perfumes 10%
Enzymes 7%
Polymers 6%
Others 9%
Total 100%
Bioethanol enzymes sales 705 1003 1381 1496 1751 2237 2524 3609
Growth 42% 38% 8% 17% 28% 13% 43%
Total Novozymes sales 6803 7439 8146 8448 9064 10216 11254 13521
Growth 9% 9% 4% 7% 13% 10% 20%
Method
DCF
RV
Average
Share price
RV
DJ Stoxx Chemicals P/E (12m forward)
Novozymes P/E (12m forward)
Current premium to DJ Stoxx Chemicals
Historical premium to DJ Stoxx Chemicals
Novozymes Fair value P/E (12m forward)
Fair value
Quarterly development
Forecast changes
2007 2008 2009 2010E
SALES
Old 7438 8146 8330 9097
New 9064
Change (%) 0%
EBIT
Old 1481 1504 1652 1930
New 1937
Change (%) 0%
EBIT margin
Old 19.9% 18.5% 19.8% 21.2%
New 21.4%
Change (pp) 0.1%
EPS
Old 16.93 17.15 19.31 23.14
New 23.53
Change (%) 2%
Peer Group
EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT
2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E
Danisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Givaudan 8.7 7.7 10.8 9.5
Symrise 9.9 9.2 14.2 13.0
Novozymes 17.3 14.6 23.2 18.8
Average 9.0 7.9 12.1 10.3
Upside Fair Value
18% 842
-22% 555 Target price
-2% 699 700
711
11.9
26.5
122%
73%
20.7
555
8448 7%
1688 15%
20.0%
1620 19%
19.21 22%
2672 7%
1496 17%
591 8%
513 5%
1801 5%
725 3%
415 2%
235 -3%
2011E 2012E
9999 11010
10216 11254
2% 2%
2188 2417
2330 2471
6% 2%
21.9% 22.0%
22.8% 22.0%
0.9% 0.0%
26.73 30.13
28.87 31.25
8% 4%
Consensus Novozymes
12% 4-6%
20% 12-14%
24% 17-19%
700-800
P/E
2010E 2011E
0.0 0.0
13.4 12.0
18.6 17.0
30.2 24.6
15.6 13.4
(SEKm) Q2-10E Q2-09 % Chg. l-f-l Q2 cons 2010E Guidance
Sales 2191 2028 8% 10% 2298 9064 9039
EBITDA 624 544 15% 2592
EBIT 460 402 14% 496 1937 1907
Net profit 347 282 23% 358 1461 1407
Detergents 683 650 5% 12% 724 2849
Technical 704 615 15% 24% 742 2927
Q2 10 Q2 10E 2010E
DKKm Actual Diff. vs Cheuvreux Diff. vs Consensus Cheuvreux Consensus Diff. Cheuvreux Consensus Diff.
Sales 2469 13% 8% 2191 2295 -5% 9064 9436 -4%
EBIT 574 25% 16% 460 496 -7% 1937 2031 -5%
EBIT margin (%) 23.2% 225bps 164bps 21.0% 21.6% -61bps 21.4% 21.5%
Pre-tax profit 557 22% 19% 457 470 -3% 1924 1963 -2%
Net profit 420 21% 18% 347 356 -2% 1461 1478 -1%
EPS 6.71 20% 19% 5.59 5.65 -1% 23.53 23.5 0%
Sales break-down
Detergent enzymes -100% -100% 683 724 -6% 2849 2958 -4%
Technical enzymes -100% -100% 704 742 -5% 2927 3081 -5%
Food enzymes -100% -100% 467 481 -3% 1893 1940 -2%
Feed enzymes -100% -100% 160 177 -10% 746 781 -4%
Microorganisms -100% -100% 129 123 5% 423 123 243%
Biopharmaceutical Ingredients -100% -100% 47 47 1% 227 47 383%
Europe (mgpy)
masik:
mtpy 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5EU target of biofuels
growth 25% 10% 10% 10%(bioethanol & biodies
mgpy 238 297 327 360 396accounting for 5.75%
energy consumption
growth 25% 10% 10% 10%transportation sector
China (mgpy)
masik:
mtpy 5.0 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.8Goal to treble output
growth 0% 12% 10% 10%2010
mgpy 1321 1321 1479 1627 1790
growth 0% 12% 10% 10%
Enzyme revenue per million gallons (USDm) 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
Market value (USDm) 273 324 406 478 640
6000
0.050 0.050 0.050
731 912 969 5000
4000
3930 4906 5216
14% 25% 6% 3000
OUR ASSUMPTIONS
Novozymes market share 50% 50% 50% 50%
Novozymes revenues (USDm) 0 0 0 0
masik:
7.5 16.4 18.0 National 19.8
China's Development and 21.8 24.0 (NDRC) has
Reform Committe 26.4
a 27.7 29.1
10% 120% 10%
goal 10% by 2010
to treble production 10% 10% 10% 5% 5%
7.5 8.2 ==>
9.0We assume9.9 that this goal 10.9
can't be reached until 2011 13.2
12.0 13.9 14.6
==> We assume that 50% of output will be grain-based
10% 10%
masik: 10%We assume10%
==> 10% will be biomass-based
that 50% of output 10% 10% 5% 5%
China's
8.2 National Development
9.0 and
9.9Reform Committe
10.9 (NDRC) has12.0 13.2 13.9 14.6
a goal to treble production by 2010
10% 10% 10% 10%
==> We assume that this goal can't be reached until 2011, 10% 10% 5% 5%
which is the launch year for Novozymes' enzymes for Biomass-
based bioethanol
47.4 49.8
5% 5%
23.7 24.9
5% 5%
23.7 24.9
5% 5%
6264.4 6577.6
0.06 0.05
50% 50%
187.9 164.4
1011.1 884.7