CDRA Mulanay

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Municipality of Mulanay, Province of Quezon
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................ i

LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................. ii
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................... ii
LIST OF MAPS .................................................................................................................................... iii
ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................................... v
DEFINITION OF TERMS ...................................................................................................................vi
I. INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................1
II. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ...........................................................5
A. Climate Variables .....................................................................................................................5
1. Temperature ...................................................................................................................................................... 5
2. Rainfall .................................................................................................................................................................. 7
3. Relative Humidity ............................................................................................................................................ 8
4. Sea Level Rise..................................................................................................................................................... 9
5. Tropical Cyclones ...........................................................................................................................................12
6. Climatological Normals ...............................................................................................................................16
7. Climatological Extremes .............................................................................................................................17
B. Projected Climate .................................................................................................................. 23
C. Potential Impacts and Effects of Climate Change ....................................................... 24
1. Forest Ecosystem ...........................................................................................................................................24
2. Agriculture Ecosystem .................................................................................................................................26
3. Urban Ecosystem............................................................................................................................................28
4. Coastal Ecosystem .........................................................................................................................................30
III. DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT .............................................................................................. 32
A. History of Previous Disasters ........................................................................................... 32
B. Hazard Susceptibility........................................................................................................... 34
1. Flood Susceptibility .......................................................................................................................................35
2. Rain-induced Landslide Susceptibility .................................................................................................35
3. Storm Surge Susceptibility .........................................................................................................................36
4. Earthquake-induced Landslide Susceptibility ..................................................................................36
5. Liquefaction Susceptibility ........................................................................................................................37
6. Ground Shaking Susceptibility .................................................................................................................37
C. Exposure and Risk to Hazards .......................................................................................... 46
1. Population .........................................................................................................................................................46
2. Urban Use Areas .............................................................................................................................................59
3. Natural Resource-Based Production Areas ........................................................................................75
4. Critical Point Facilities .................................................................................................................................88
5. Lifeline Utilities ............................................................................................................................................ 100
D. INTEGRATED RISK ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 109
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) i

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Score Matrix for the Indicative Likelihood of Occurrence of Hazards ................ 3
Table 2. Severity of Consequence Score by Likelihood of Occurrence ............................ 3
Table 3. Risk Score and Category Description............................................................... 4
Table 4. Annual mean minimum, mean maximum, and mean temperatures of Mulanay,
Quezon from 2010 to 2018 ......................................................................................... 5
Table 5. Tropical Cyclones that passed through Quezon Province from 2006 to 2021 .. 12
Table 6. Climatological Normals of Mulanay from 1991 to 2020.................................. 18
Table 7. Climatological Extremes of Mulanay from 1950 to 2021 ................................ 21
Table 8. Summary of Climate Change Projections (2036-2065) in Mulanay, Quezon .... 23
Table 9. Historical Information on Previous Disasters in Mulanay, Quezon .................. 32
Table 10. Hazard Inventory of Mulanay, Quezon ........................................................ 34
Table 11. Population Exposure and Risk to Flood in Mulanay, Quezon......................... 46
Table 12. Population Exposure and Risk to Landslide in Mulanay, Quezon .................. 48
Table 13. Population Exposure and Risk to Storm Surge in Mulanay, Quezon............... 49
Table 14. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Population Exposure to Hazards 50
Table 15. Flood Susceptibility and Risk of Urban Use Areas ........................................ 59
Table 16. Landslide Susceptibility and Risk of Urban Use Areas .................................. 62
Table 17. Storm Surge Susceptibility and Risk of Urban Use Areas .............................. 63
Table 18. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Urban Use Areas ...................... 66
Table 19. Flood Susceptibility and Risk of Natural Resource-Based Production Areas .. 76
Table 20. Storm Surge Risk of Natural Resource-Based Production Areas.................... 79
Table 21. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Natural Resource-Based Production
Areas ....................................................................................................................... 80
Table 22. Flood Susceptibility and Risk of Critical Point Facilities ............................... 89
Table 23. Landslide Susceptibility and Risk of Critical Point Facilities ......................... 90
Table 24. Storm Surge Susceptibility and Risk of Critical Point Facilities ..................... 91
Table 25. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Critical Point Facilities.............. 92
Table 26. Flood Susceptibility and Risk of Lifeline Utilities ....................................... 100
Table 27. Landslide Susceptibility and Risk of Lifeline Utilities ................................. 101
Table 28. Storm Surge Susceptibility and Risk of Lifeline Utilities ............................. 101
Table 29. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Lifeline Utilities...................... 102
Table 30. Summary of the Decision Areas of the Five Exposure Units per Hazard ....... 109
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Annual mean minimum, mean maximum, and mean temperatures of Mulanay,
Quezon from 2010 to 2019 ......................................................................................... 7
Figure 2. Annual total amount of rainfall in Mulanay, Quezon from 2012-2019 ............. 8
Figure 3. Annual mean relative humidity in Mulanay, Quezon from 2010-2019 ............ 8
Figure 7. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Temperature to the Forest Ecosystem
of Mulanay, Quezon .................................................................................................. 24
Figure 8. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Rainfall to the Forest Ecosystem of
Mulanay, Quezon ...................................................................................................... 25
Figure 9. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Temperature to the Agriculture
Ecosystem of Mulanay, Quezon ................................................................................. 26
Figure 10. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Rainfall to the Agriculture Ecosystem
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) ii

Figure 11. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Temperature to the Urban Ecosystem
Figure 12. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Rainfall to the Urban Ecosystem of
Mulanay, Quezon ...................................................................................................... 29
Figure 13. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Temperature to the Coastal Ecosystem
Figure 14. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Rainfall to the Coastal Ecosystem of
Mulanay, Quezon ...................................................................................................... 31
LIST OF MAPS
Map 1. Province of Quezon’s Climatological Map (based on the Modified Corona System)
.................................................................................................................................. 6
Map 2. Geologic and Active Faults Map of Mulanay, Quezon ........................................ 39
Map 3. Flood Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon .................................................. 40
Map 4. Rain-induced Landslide Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon ....................... 41
Map 5. Storm Surge Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon........................................ 42
Map 6. Earthquake-induced Landslide Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon ............ 43
Map 7. Liquefaction Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon ....................................... 44
Map 8. Ground Shaking Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon .................................. 45
Map 9. Flood Exposure Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon ................................... 53
Map 10. Flood Risk Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon......................................... 54
Map 11. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon ...... 55
Map 12. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon .............. 56
Map 13. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon ....................... 57
Map 14. Storm Surge Risk Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon............................... 58
Map 15. Flood Exposure Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon ........................ 69
Map 16. Flood Risk Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon ................................ 70
Map 17. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon
................................................................................................................................ 71
Map 18. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon ..... 72
Map 19. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon .............. 73
Map 20. Storm Surge Risk Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon ...................... 74
Map 21. Flood Exposure Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay,
Quezon .................................................................................................................... 82
Map 22. Flood Risk Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay, Quezon
................................................................................................................................ 83
Map 23. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Natural Resource-based Production
Areas in Mulanay, Quezon ......................................................................................... 84
Map 24. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in
Mulanay, Quezon ...................................................................................................... 85
Map 25. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in
Mulanay, Quezon ...................................................................................................... 86
Map 26. Storm Surge Risk Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay,
Quezon .................................................................................................................... 87
Map 27. Flood Exposure Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon................ 94
Map 28. Flood Risk Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon ....................... 95
Map 29. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay,
Quezon .................................................................................................................... 96
Map 30. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon
................................................................................................................................ 97
Map 31. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon ..... 98
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) iii

Map 32. Storm Surge Risk Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon ............. 99
Map 33. Flood Exposure Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon........................ 103
Map 34. Flood Risk Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon ............................... 104
Map 35. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon
.............................................................................................................................. 105
Map 36. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon .... 106
Map 37. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon.............. 107
Map 38. Storm Surge Risk Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon ..................... 108
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) iv

ACRONYMS
BDRRMC Barangay Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council
CCA Climate Change Adaptation
CCVA Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
CDRA Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan
DHSUD Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development
DJF December-January-February
DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways
DRA Disaster Risk Assessment
DRR Disaster Risk Reduction
DRRM-CCA Disaster Risk Reduction Management and Climate Change Adaptation
FGD Focused Group Discussion
GIS Geographic Information System
HH Household
HLURB Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JJA June-July-August
KII Key Informant Interview
LCCAP Local Climate Change Action Plan
LDRRMP Local Disaster Risk Reduction Management Plan
LGU Local Government Unit
MAM March-April-May
MEO Municipal Engineering Office
MGB Mines and Geosciences Bureau
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services
PAGASA
Administration
PEIS PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale
PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
PSA Philippine Statistics Authority
SON September-October-November
UNISDR UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) v

DEFINITION OF TERMS
Adaptation – the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities (RA 10121).
Adaptive Capacity – Combination of strengths, attributes, and resources available to an

individual, community, society, or organization that can be used to prepare for and
undertake actions to reduce adverse impacts, moderate harm, or exploit beneficial
opportunities (IPCC, 2012)
Baseline/Reference – the baseline (or reference) is any datum against which change is
measured. It might be a “current baseline,” in which case it represents observable,
present-day conditions. It might also be a “future baseline”, which a projected future is set
of conditions excluding the driving factor of interest (e.g. how would a sector evolve
without climate warming). (Climate Change in the Philippines)
Climate Change – change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human

activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. (Climate Change in
the Philippines)
Climate Projection – a description of the response of the climate system to emission or

concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios,
often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are subject to
uncertainty, because they are typically based on assumptions concerning future socio-
economic and technological Developments that may or may not be realized. (Climate
Change in the Philippines)
Climate Change Vulnerability – is the Degree to which a system is susceptible to, or

unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and
extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate
change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive
capacity. (Climate Change in the Philippines)
Critical facilities – the primary physical structures, technical facilities and systems which
are socially, economically or operationally essential to the functioning of a society or
community, both in routine circumstances and in the extreme circumstances of an
emergency
Disaster – a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving

widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which
exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
Disasters are often described as a result of the combination of: the exposure to a hazard;
the conditions of vulnerability that are present; and insufficient capacity or measures to
reduce or cope with the potential negative consequences. Disaster impacts may include
loss of life, injury, disease and other negative effects on human, physical, mental and social
well-being, together with damage to property, Destruction of assets, loss of services,
Social and economic disruption and environmental Degradation. (RA 10121)
Disaster Risk – the potential disaster losses in lives, health status, livelihood, assets and
services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified
future time period. (RA 10121)
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) vi

Disaster Risk Reduction – the concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through
systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through
reduced exposures to hazards, lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise
management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse
events. (RA 10121)
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management – the systematic process of using

administrative directives, organizations, and operational skills and capacities to
implement strategies, policies and improved coping capacities in order to lessen the
adverse impacts of hazards and the possibility of disaster. Prospective disaster risk
reduction and management refers to risk reduction and management activities that
address and seek to avoid the Development of new or increased disaster risks, especially
if risk reduction policies are not put in place. (RA 10121)
Earthquake – a sudden and violent shaking of the ground, sometimes causing great
Destruction, as a result of movements within the earth’s crust or volcanic action
Earthquake-induced Landslide – a landslide hazard occurred with a Delay in time and

over a wider area, which triggered by post-seismic factor (earthquake)
Exposure – refers to the presence of people, property, livelihoods, systems, or other

elements in hazard areas and so thereby may subject to potential loss (UNISDR, 2009 and
IPCC, 2012). Exposure is the Degree to which the elements at risk are likely to experience
hazard events of different magnitudes. (RA 10121)
Flood – an abnormal progressive rise in the water level of a stream that may result in the
overflowing by the water of the normal confines of the stream with the subsequent
inundation of areas, which are not normally submerged
Geographic Information System (GIS) – a database that contains, among others, geo-
hazard assessments, information on climate change, and climate risk reduction and
management (RA 10121). It is defined as an information system that is used to input,
store, retrieve, manipulate, analyze and output geographically referenced data or
geospatial data. Descriptive attributes in tabular form are associated with spatial features.
Spatial data and associated attributes in the same coordinate system can be layered
together for mapping and analysis. This tool is most helpful to support Decision making
for planning and management of land use, natural resources, environment,
transportation, urban facilities, scientific investigations, etc.
Ground shaking – the primary cause of earthquake damage to man-made structures
Hazard – a dangerous event that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, as
well as damage or loss of property, infrastructure, livelihoods, and services, social and
economic disruption and, or environmental damage (UNISDR, 2009b).
Intensity –measures the strength of shaking produced by the earthquake at a certain

location; Determined from effects on people, human structures, and the natural
environment
Liquefaction – a phenomenon in which the strength and stiffness of a soil is reduced by

earthquake shaking or other rapid loading
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) vii

Rainfall-induced Landslide – a landslide hazard occurred with a delay in time and over
a wider area, which triggered by post-seismic factor (rainfall)
Resilience – the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist,

absorb, accommodate and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient
manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic
structures and functions. (RA 10121)
Risk – the potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services,
which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time
period (UNISDR, 2009)
Risk Assessment – a methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by

analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that
together could potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihood and the
environment on which they depend. Risk assessments with associated risk mapping
include a review of the technical characteristics of hazards such as their location,
intensity, frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and vulnerability including
the physical, social, health, economic and environmental dimensions; and the evaluation
of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk
scenarios. (RA 10121)
Risk management – the systematic approach and practice of managing uncertainty to

minimize potential harm and loss
Spatial Data – information pertaining to a place linked to coordinates or other positional

information.
Vulnerability – the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset

that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. Vulnerability may arise from
various physical, social, economic, and environmental factors such as poor design and
construction of buildings, inadequate protection of assets, lack of public information and
awareness, limited official recognition of risks and preparedness measures, and disregard
for wise environmental management. (RA 10121)
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) viii

I. INTRODUCTION
Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) evaluates the susceptibility and risks of
regions and sectors in a municipality or city to climate-related hazards and the potential
effects of climate change and helps identify priority decision areas where various
interventions can be implemented (HLURB 2015). It highlights the significance of risk
reduction and mitigation options through the identified decision areas, development
challenges and implications, and policy interventions.
Local governments are further encouraged to incorporate climate change and disaster
risk concerns into their institutional framework. Consequently, the findings of CDRA
serve as crucial inputs for planning information and are integrated into various local
development plans, including the Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) and
Comprehensive Development Plan (CDP). CDRA also forms the foundation for the
development of the Local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP) and Local Disaster Risk
Reduction Management Plan (LDRRMP).
The Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mulanay, Quezon was conducted using the
HLURB 2015 Supplementary Guidelines for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation
and Disaster Risk Reduction. The assessment involved six (6) main steps: (1) gathering
hazards and climate change data, (2) assessing potential impacts, (3) creating an
exposure database, (4) conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment, (5)
performing a disaster risk assessment, and (6) summarizing the findings, which includes
identifying decision areas and corresponding policy interventions.
1. The Collection of Hazard and Climate Change Information
This comprises of the primary data through Key Informant Interview that involved local
government officials, local stakeholders and other resource persons in the municipality.
While, secondary data include the provincial-level climate change projections (2036-
2065) with medium emission scenario for the projected changes in the climate variables
of Quezon. These were obtained from the Observed Climate Trends and Projected Climate
Change in the Philippines published by Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in 2018. Projected changes in climate
caused by changes in variables, temperature and precipitation, were shown.
Hazards present and the past disasters in the municipality were identified. The flood,
landslide, and storm surge hazard shapefiles were obtained from the Mines and
Geoscience Bureau (MGB). Potential hazards can be seen in terms of frequency, spatial
extent, magnitude/intensity, duration, predictability, and the speed of onset. The data
were utilized for the Hazard Susceptibility Inventory Matrix.
2. Scoping of Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change
The second step involves pinpointing critical areas or sectors susceptible to climate
change and natural hazards to accurately assess and outline the probable (direct and
indirect) impacts of these events. In analyzing the observed impacts across all sectors of
the site, the climate change and hazard information was consolidated, and the projected
data obtained from the previous stage was employed to develop a sectoral impact chain
diagram. Additionally, susceptibility maps from MGB and location maps of the exposure
units were utilized to create exposure maps. The sectoral impact chain diagram
CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 1

incorporated the climate stimuli identified in the local climate projection from PAGASA
and employed a ridge-to-reef approach.
3. Development of Exposure Database
Exposure database was done for the five (5) exposure units: population, urban use areas,
natural resource-based production, critical point facilities, and lifeline utilities. This
involved the gathering of baseline maps and attribute data on the exposure,
vulnerability/sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the affected areas. The exposure
database matrix based on the 2022 updated database of DHSUD was used for gathering
the attribute data of each barangay. This information will be used for geo-referencing and
in developing exposure maps based on the exposure units. Mapping these exposures then
lead to the identification of areas susceptible to hazards and further estimates its extent
of impact such as structures and numbers of individuals affected. The exposure units are
defined as follows:
a. Population Exposure – spatial location (derived from existing residential area

map) and number of potentially-affected persons based on demographic
characteristics.
b. Urban Use Areas – built environment currently utilized for residential,

commercial, industrial, tourism, sanitary waste management facilities,
cemeteries, and other land uses unique to the locality expressed in terms of
area, type of use, and replacement/ construction cost.
c. Natural Resource-Based Production Areas – areas used for agriculture and

forest-related production expresses in terms of type of resource or by area in
terms of hectares and replacement cost; included current production
practices, access to infrastructure and climate/hazard information, presence
or use of risk transfer instruments and access to extension services.
d. Critical Point Facilities – facilities that provided key socio-economic support

services such as schools, hospitals/rural health units, local government
buildings, roads, bridges, air/seaports, communication towers, and power-
related and water-related facilities (can be obtained from building/structural
inventories.
e. Lifeline Utilities – covered transportation, water distribution, drainage and

power distribution networks, municipal assets that ensure delivery of lifeline
services expressed in the linear kilometers exposed, the construction cost or
replacement-values.
4. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA)
The data used in this step were based on the initial scoping of climate trends and from the
compiled present hazard maps. They serve as bases in the formulation of the climate
impact chain in which the trends identified could potentially affect various key areas and
development sectors in the municipality. Climate Impact Chain Analysis was done
through a matrix based on projected climate trends from PAGASA showing the changes in
the climate variables, temperature and rainfall, in each of the ecosystems namely forest,
agriculture, urban, and coastal areas. Ridge-To-Reef Valuation was also conducted in
order to know the on-site and off-site impacts of the issues and concerns being
experienced by a certain ecosystem. Data gathered were validated and finalized by the

municipal department heads, barangay officials, CSOs, and other key stakeholders who
attended the said workshop.
5. Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA)
a. Likelihood of Occurrence
Risk Areas were identified by analyzing the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive
capacity of the exposure units. To identify risk areas per exposure unit, severity of
consequence and likelihood of occurrence were obtained. Likelihood of occurrence of
hazards is defined as the estimated period of time, expressed in years, a hazard event is
likely to repeat itself. It also incorporates the projected changes in frequency and intensity
of the hazard as a result of climate change. This can be scored using the following
indicative likelihood of occurrence matrix showing the ranges corresponding the return
period of hazards provided by DHSUD (see Table 1).
Table 1. Score Matrix for the Indicative Likelihood of Occurrence of Hazards

Measure of Probability Return Period Likelihood
Description
Likelihood within 50 years in Years Score
The event has
occurred several
Likely 87% - 100% 1-25 years 4
times in your
lifetime
The event might
Possible 40% - 86% >25-100 occur once in your 3
lifetime
The event does
Unlikely 22.1% - 39% >100-200 occur somewhere 2
from time to time
Possible but not
expected to occur
>200-500 or
Rare 2% - 22% except in 1
>500
exceptional
circumstances
Source: Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development, 2022
b. Consequence Analysis
The score for the severity of consequence was derived by getting the average scores of
the exposure, vulnerability/sensitivity, and adaptive capacity for each exposure unit and
hazard. This can be determined using the suggested severity of consequence score matrix,
as shown in Table 2. Assigning the Severity of Consequence measures the degree of
impact of hazards and its potential direct and indirect damages to the exposed elements.
The severity of consequence score was automatically computed during the exposure
matrix which were based on the vulnerability score and exposure score of the affected
elements.
Table 2. Severity of Consequence Score by Likelihood of Occurrence

Indicative Likelihood of Severity of Consequence Score (EV)
Likelihood of Occurrence Low Moderate High Very High
Occurrence Score 1 2 3 4
Likely 4 4 8 12 16

Indicative Likelihood of Severity of Consequence Score (EV)

Likelihood of Occurrence Low Moderate High Very High
Occurrence Score 1 2 3 4
Possible 3 3 6 9 12
Unlikely 2 2 4 6 8
Rare 1 1 2 3 4
c. Risk Estimation
Risk is defined as the combination of the probability (represented as the likelihood of

occurrence) of an event and its potential negative consequence for a given area and
reference period. Moreover, estimating risk involved finding of the intensity of risks
formed by the product of the scores from the likelihood of the hazard and the severity of
the consequence.
Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x Severity of Consequence
This has three major steps: a) computation of risk score; b) reclassification of risk scores
into categories; and c) preparation of risk maps. The risk score was computed by
multiplying the likelihood of occurrence score to the severity of consequence score.
The computed risk scores were reclassified under a corresponding risk category – namely
low risk, moderate risk, high risk, and very high risk – using a score matrix shown in Table
3. To show the extent and distribution of the risk, risk maps were then illustrated.
Table 3. Risk Score and Category Description

Scores Risk Category Level of Risk Level of Land use control
Non-complying,
12 to 16 Very High Risk Acceptable
prohibited
7 to 11 High Risk Acceptable Discretionary
3 to 6 Moderate Risk Tolerable Restricted discretionary
1 to 2 Low Risk Tolerable Controlled or permitted
6. Summary of Findings
After analyzing the risk estimates and adaptive capacities, major decision areas were
identified through an overlay analysis of all the decision areas outputs, based on
combined level of risks and vulnerabilities. With the use of the generated risk maps,
decision areas can be easier to identify. It then served as a guide in the recommendation
of risk management alternatives and courses of action in implementing climate change
adaptation and mitigation. The overall results of the risk analysis were then validated
through workshop and field validation, and were then integrated to the CLUP.

II. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment is one of the activities needed for the
development of CDRA. The CCVA is a tool that qualitatively measures the locality’s level
of vulnerability and the factors that affect the vulnerability to the impacts of climate
change. Two (2) climate variables were considered for the CCVA namely the projected
changes in the annual mean temperatures and the projected changes in seasonal rainfall.
Data from the Observed Climate Trends and Projected Climate Change (PAGASA, 2018)
shows the observed climate baseline (1971 to 2000) and the projected seasonal changes
(2036 to 2065) of the province of Quezon. The projected climate was derived using two
(2) emission scenarios – medium emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5), it was
further divided into four (4) seasons: (1) Northeast monsoon or the Amihan season
throughout December, January, February (DJF); (2) summer season during the months of
March, April, May (MAM); (3) Habagat season or the southwest monsoon from June, July,
August (JJA); and lastly, (4) the transition from southwest to northeast monsoon in
September, October, November (SON).
A. Climate Variables
Mulanay has a Type III climate based on the Modified Coronas Classification of Climate
which is characterized by a no very pronounced maximum rain period, with a short dry
season lasting only from one (1) to three (3) months, either during the period from
December to February or from March to May. The data on climate attributes –
temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, climatological normal, and climatological
extremes – of Mulanay are patterned after the data of the PAGASA Climatology and
Agrometeorology Division stationed in Alabat, Quezon.
1. Temperature
Shown in the table below is the trend of temperature changes from 2010 to 2019 which
are recorded and measured in terms of mean temperature, mean maximum temperature,
and mean minimum temperature annually. There are gaps in the 2011 data which is why
it is not included in the analysis. Since 2010, the mean temperature of the municipality
ranges from 27.1 to 27.7 °C without any drastic increase or decrease. Mean Temperature
is the average of the maximum and minimum temperature in °C recorded for the day.
Table 4. Annual mean minimum, mean maximum, and mean temperatures of Mulanay,
Quezon from 2010 to 2018
Year
Temperature (°C)
2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mean Minimum
23.2 23.8 23.9 23.8 23.8 24.0 23.9 24.0 23.7
Temperature
Mean Maximum
31.0 31.2 31.0 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.1 31.1 31.6
Temperature
Mean
27.1 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6
Temperature
Source: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA), 2022

Map 1. Province of Quezon’s Climatological Map (based on the Modified Corona System)

Minimum Temperature is the “minimum temperature in degree Celsius (°C recorded for
the day, usually occurring during early hours of the morning (before sunrise)”. The lowest
mean minimum temperature was recorded in 2010 at 23.2 °C while the highest minimum
temperature of 24.0 °C occurred in 2016 and 2018. On the other hand, the mean maximum
temperature of the municipality which was usually occurring in the early afternoon
stayed within the range of 31.0 °C to 31.6 °C, but only decreased at 30.9 °C in 2014. Based
on this information, changes in temperature variables mentioned have been somewhat
stable as the difference between maximum and minimum values across all of them never
exceed 1 °C.
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mean Minimum Temperature (°C)

Mean Maximum Temperature (°C)
Figure 1. Annual mean minimum, mean maximum, and mean temperatures of Mulanay,
Quezon from 2010 to 2019
2. Rainfall
Rainfall is the “amount of precipitation (commonly rain or hail) expressed in millimeters

depth of the layer of the water which has fallen” (PAGASA, 2019). Presented in the figure
below is the monthly data within the years 2012 to 2019 that were summed up per year
to produce the annual total rainfall data, excluding years 2011 and 2017 since these years
have data gaps. The highest amount of rainfall was recorded in 2016 at 3,490.7 mm of
precipitation, while the least amount was in 2019 at 1,845.4 mm. In 2013, the annual total
rainfall increased by 50 mm and by 227.2 mm in 2014. The years where the annual
amount of precipitation decreased were 2015, 2018, and 2019, with the last one having
the greatest decrease by 33.40 percent.

4,000.0
3,427.7 3,490.7
3,500.0
3,176.1
3,000.0
3,150.5 3,200.5
2,500.0
2,000.0 2,382.6
1,500.0 1,845.4
1,000.0
500.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019
Annual Total Rainfall (mm)
Figure 2. Annual total amount of rainfall in Mulanay, Quezon from 2012-2019
3. Relative Humidity
Relative humidity is expressed as the percentage of water vapor present in the air at a
certain temperature. Because relative humidity is directly proportional to temperature,
changes in temperature can also influence the relative humidity in an area. Aside from
temperature, it is also influenced by geographic location. As a municipality with coastal
areas, the warm climate induces higher and faster evaporation, and being near the
Sibuyan sea guarantees that there is more moisture to rise up in the air, thereby
increasing the levels of humidity of Mulanay during warm seasons. In a ten-year period
(2010 to 2019), there are noticeable fluctuations in the relative humidity levels of the
municipality. The annual mean relative humidity increased in 2013 to 87% and decreased
to 84% in 2015 and has continued to decrease to 80% in 2019 (see Figure 3).
88
86 87 87
84 85 85
84 84
82 83
80
80
78
76
2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019
Annual Mean Relative Humidity (%)
Figure 3. Annual mean relative humidity in Mulanay, Quezon from 2010-2019

4. Sea Level Rise
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are scenarios that include time series of
emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases and aerosols and
chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover (Moss et al., 2008). Four RCPs
produced from Integrated Assessment Models were selected from the published
literature and are used in the present IPCC Assessment as a basis for the climate
predictions and projections7. The Global mean sea level rise for 2081–2100 relative to
1986–2005 will likely be in the ranges of 0.26 to 0.55 m for RCP2.6, 0.32 to 0.63 m for
RCP4.5, 0.33 to 0.63 m for RCP6.0, and 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP8.5 (medium confidence).
It is important to note that regional rates of sea level rise can vary. This is the result of
regionally differing rates of thermal expansion of the oceans as well as regional
differences in atmospheric circulation, which can affect relative sea levels. In addition,
many coastal areas are either subsiding or being uplifted.
Figure 1 Sea Level Rise Projection for Poblacion Area, Year 2050


Figure 4 Sea Level Rise Projection for Barangay Patabog Area, Year 2050

5. Tropical Cyclones
A total of 8 tropical cyclones (TC) directly passed through Quezon Province from 2009 to
2017, half of which are tropical storms while the remaining half are typhoons. Tropical
storms (TS) are tropical cyclones with maximum wind speed of 62 to 88 kph or 34 to 47
knots while typhoons (TY) have maximum speed of 118 to 184 kph or 64 to 99 knots. TC
mostly happened in the months of July and September. PAGASA only provided TC data on
the provincial level. For the municipal level, key informant interviews were conducted to
determine the major tropical cyclones that passed through Mulanay, as well as the
impacts these disasters have done.
Referring to Table 5 which lists the tropical cyclones that passed through Quezon
Province, barangay representatives mentioned that TS Milenyo, TY Glenda, and TY Nina
are some of the strongest TC that hit their locality. TC-related impacts include, but not
limited to, power and water interruptions, washed out boats, landslides, damages to
houses, crops, livestock, trees, and public infrastructures, and even deaths.
Table 5. Tropical Cyclones that passed through Quezon Province from 2006 to 2021
Effect
Affected Number of
Year Description Evacuees
Casualty/Ies
Total
Barangays
Familie Individ
Death Injured Missing Damages
s uals
2006 Milenyo Very strong typhoon (JMA All Barangays
(Xangsa scale) 205,272,907.00
ne) Category 4 typhoon
(SSHWS)
Formed: September 25, 2006
Dissipated: October 2, 2006
Highest winds: 10-minute
sustained: 155 km/h (100
mph) 1-minute sustained:
230 km/h (145 mph)
Lowest pressure: 940 hPa
(mbar); 27.76 inHg
Fatalities: At least 312 total
Damage: $750 million (2006

Effect
Affected Number of
Casualty/Ies
Total
Barangays
Familie Individ
s uals
USD)
Areas affected: Philippines,
China, Vietnam, Cambodia,
Thailand
2006 Reming Violent typhoon (JMA scale) All Barangays
(Durian) Category 4 super typhoon 505,988,162.00
(SSHWS
Formed: November 25, 2006
Dissipated: December 6, 2006
(December 9 per JTWC)
(Remnant low after December 7)
sustained: 195 km/h (120 mph)
1-minute sustained: 250 km/h
(155 mph)
Lowest pressure : 915 hPa
(mbar); 27.02 inHg
Fatalities: >1,500 total
Damage: At least $580 million
(2006 USD)
Areas affected: Yap State,
Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand,
Malaysia, Andaman Islands,
India
2011 Juaning Severe tropical storm (JMA All Barangays 295 1,521 1
(Nock- scale) 1,141,200.00
Ten) Category 1 typhoon (SSHWS)
Formed: July 24, 2011
Dissipated: July 31, 2011
1-minute sustained: 120 km/h (75
mph)
Gusts: 130 km/h (80 mph)
Lowest pressure 985 hPa (mbar);
29.09 inHg
Fatalities: 128 dead; 10 missing
Damage: $126.3 million (2011
USD)
South Central China, Vietnam,
Laos, Thailand
2013 Yolanda Violent typhoon (JMA scale) All Barangays 859 4,194 2
(Haiyan) Category 5 super typhoon -
(SSHWS)
Dissipated: November 11, 2013
(195 mph)
(mbar); 26.43 inHg
Fatalities: 6,352 confirmed, 1,771
missing
Damage: $2.98 billion (2013
USD)
(Costliest in Philippine history)
Areas affected: Micronesia,
Philippines, South China,
Vietnam, Taiwan, Palau

Effect
Affected Number of
Casualty/Ies
Total
Barangays
Familie Individ
s uals
2014 Glenda Very strong typhoon (JMA All Barangays 5,062 23,231 31
(Ramma scale) -
sun) Category 5 super typhoon
(SSHWS)
Formed: July 9, 2014
Dissipated: July 20, 2014
(160 mph)
(mbar); 27.61 inHg
(Estimated at 888 hPa (26.2
inHg) by CMA)
Fatalities: 225 total
USD)
Areas affected: Caroline Islands
Mariana Islands Philippines
South China Hong Kong Macau
Vietnam Thailand
2014 Ruby Violent typhoon (JMA scale) All Barangays 2,777 12,024 2
(Hagupit Category 5 super typhoon 358,275.00
) (SSHWS)
Formed: 30 November 2014
Dissipated: 12 December 2014
(180 mph)
26.72 inHg
USD)
Areas affected: Caroline Islands,
Palau, Philippines, Vietnam
2015 Nona Very strong typhoon (JMA All Barangays 1,514 6,444
(Melor) scale) -
Category 4 typhoon (SSHWS)
Formed: December 10, 2015
(145 mph)
27.61 inHg
USD)
Philippines
2016 Nina Violent typhoon (JMA scale) All Barangays 4,805 21,933 2 1
(Nock- Category 5 super typhoon 530,137,422.00
Ten) (SSHWS)
Formed: December 20, 2016
(160 mph)
(mbar); 27.02 inHg
USD)
Philippines, Vietnam

Effect
Affected Number of
Casualty/Ies
Total
Barangays
Familie Individ
s uals
2019 Tisoy Very strong typhoon (JMA All Barangays 6,986 27,343
(Kammu scale) 349,444,436.60
ri) Category 4 typhoon (SSHWS)
(140 mph)
28.05 inHg
Fatalities: 17 confirmed
USD)
Mariana Islands, Philippines
2020 Ambo Very strong typhoon (JMA All Barangays 2,611 9,623
(Vongfo scale) 28,302,235.00
ng) Category 3 typhoon (SSHWS)
Formed: May 8, 2020
Dissipated: May 18, 2020
(115 mph)
28.35 inHg
Fatalities: 5 total
Damage: $50 million (2020 USD)
Areas affected: Palau,
Philippines, Taiwan
2020 Quinta Very strong typhoon (JMA All Barangays 3,209 12,652
(Molave) scale) 67,816,072.00
Formed: October 22, 2020
Dissipated: October 30, 2020
(120 mph)
27.76 inHg
Fatalities: 71 deaths, 46 missing
USD)
Spratly Islands, Vietnam, Laos,
Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia,
Myanmar
2020 Rolly Violent typhoon (JMA scale) All Barangays 8,091 31,441
(Goni) Category 5 super typhoon 119,923,192.50
(SSHWS)
Formed: October 26, 2020
(195 mph)
26.72 inHg
USD)
Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos

Effect
Affected Number of
Casualty/Ies
Total
Barangays
Familie Individ
s uals
2020 Ulysses Very strong typhoon (JMA All Barangays 324 1,151
(Vamco) scale) -
(130 mph)
28.2 inHg
Fatalities: 102 deaths, 10 missing
USD)
Vietnam, Laos, Thailand
2021 Jolina Severe tropical storm (JMA All Barangays 802 1,443
(Conson scale) -
) Category 1 typhoon (SSHWS)
Formed: September 5, 2021
Dissipated: September 13, 2021
1-minute sustained: 120 km/h (75
mph)
29.29 inHg
Fatalities: 22 reported, 28
missing
USD)
Vietnam, Hainan
6. Climatological Normals
Climatological normals are the average measurements of climatological variables for 30-
year periods. This is done to create the baseline of climate variables for comparing and
monitoring changes in climate, and to assess indicators of these established references on
predicting the conditions likely to happen in a given location. The baseline period for
climatological normals provided by PAGASA is 1991-2020.
Referring back to the rainfall data, the normal annual total rainfall is 3,362.9 mm in a span
of 175 recorded rainy days. However, if compared to the data from 2012-2019, the
increase and decrease vis-à-vis the normal values of annual total rainfall varies very
differently, thus no observed trends may be suggested. Although, a significant decrease
occurred in 2019 with 1,845.4 mm.
In terms of temperature, the normal annual mean temperature is 27.0 °C. The annual
mean temperature from 2010 to 2019 ranges from 27.1 °C to 27.7 °C in Mulanay. Data
from the last nine years show that the annual mean temperature since 2010 is slightly
higher than the normal value.
The normal annual relative humidity is 84%. Comparing this to the relative humidity from
2010-2016, which have relative humidity values of 84% to 87%, it is shown that there is
an increase. However, it decreased in 2019 to 80%.

While the data from the last nine years are not yet indicative of drastic changes in the
climate variability, the effect of climate change may be suggested from the increasing
projected trend of temperature based on the comparison of baseline annual mean
temperature to the latest data. It is also vital to note the observed decrease in the annual
amount of rainfall and relative humidity which both happened in 2019.
7. Climatological Extremes
Table 6 shows the extreme temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, and sea level
pressure from the 1950s to 2021. Most of the extreme climate variables were recorded
from the early 1960s to 2020.
Extreme temperatures were recorded in the time period 1962-2021. The annual extreme
high temperature is 37.8 °C recorded in May 1969, while annual extreme low temperature
is 17.0 °C in February 1983. The monthly extreme high temperature ranges from 33.4 °C
to 37.8 °C, and the monthly extreme low temperature ranges from 17 °C to 21 °C. It was
only in 2007 where the recent extreme high (36.4 °C) and low (20.7 °C) temperatures
were recorded.
Meanwhile, extreme daily rainfall is measured at 160 millimeters (mm) of precipitation

or higher. The greatest daily rainfall was 673.0 mm in December 1975. Half of the
recorded extreme daily rainfall were measured in 2000s to early 2020s, with May 2020
as the most recent one and had a daily rainfall amount of 255.6 mm.
Another climate variable with extreme values is wind speed, with the strongest one at 80
meters per second (mps) directed east which was recorded in October 1989. Strong wind
gusts were measured mostly in the 1960s to 2000s. Recent strong winds occurred in
January 2001 with a velocity of 17 mps northeast.
Lastly, extreme sea level pressures were also documented. Sea level pressure is the force
exerted by the weight of the atmosphere on a unit area at mean sea level expressed in
millibars (mbs). The records from PAGASA are from 1957 to 2021. The highest sea level
pressure was recorded in February 1962 with 1,021.9 mbs while the lowest was at 965.6
mbs in November 1967.
It is important to monitor the occurrence of these extreme climate variables in Mulanay

to track and estimate the effects of the changes of the variables to the entire municipality
and its constituents, infrastructure, and environment. Moreover, it will help evaluate the
efficiency of the DRRM-CCA strategies and activities of the community.

Table 6. Climatological Normals of Mulanay from 1991 to 2020

LATITUDE: 14º06’20.50” N
STATION: ALABAT, QUEZON LONGITUDE: 122º01’03.32” E
PERIOD: 1991 - 2020 ELEVATION: 5 m
NO. OF DAYS
RAINFALL TEMPERATURE (°C) WIND
VAPOR W/
RH MSLP
MONTH NO. PRESS. CLOUD
AMOUNT DRY WET DEW (%) (mbs) DIR SPD
OF MAX MIN MEAN (mbs) AMT. TSTM LTNG
(mm) BULB BULB POINT (16pt) (mps)
RD (okta)
JAN 249.0 18 28.4 22.2 25.3 25.6 23.7 22.9 28.1 85 1013.2 NE 3 6 0 0
FEB 192.7 13 28.8 22.2 25.5 25.7 23.7 22.9 28.1 85 1013.2 NE 3 6 0 0
MAR 146.9 9 30.0 22.8 26.4 26.6 24.3 23.5 29.1 84 1012.4 NE 2 5 2 1
APR 84.3 6 31.8 23.6 27.7 27.9 25.4 24.5 30.8 82 1010.9 NE 2 5 4 3
MAY 128.2 9 32.8 23.9 28.3 28.7 26.1 25.2 32.1 81 1009.3 SW 2 5 14 11
JUN 175.4 11 32.7 23.9 28.3 28.6 26.0 25.1 31.9 82 1008.8 SW 2 6 18 15
JUL 229.5 15 31.8 23.6 27.7 27.9 25.6 24.8 31.3 83 1008.1 SW 2 7 15 12
AUG 144.4 12 32.0 23.6 27.8 28.0 25.6 24.7 31.2 82 1007.7 SW 2 7 12 9

PERIOD: 1991 - 2020 ELEVATION: 5 m
NO. OF DAYS
RAINFALL TEMPERATURE (°C) WIND
VAPOR W/
RH MSLP
MONTH NO. PRESS. CLOUD
AMOUNT DRY WET DEW (%) (mbs) DIR SPD
OF MAX MIN MEAN (mbs) AMT. TSTM LTNG
(mm) BULB BULB POINT (16pt) (mps)
RD (okta)
SEP 266.9 15 31.7 23.5 27.6 27.7 25.4 24.6 31.0 84 1008.4 SW 2 7 14 10
OCT 456.5 21 30.7 23.4 27.1 27.3 25.2 24.4 30.7 84 1009.5 NE 2 7 11 8
NOV 567.0 23 29.9 23.4 26.6 27.0 24.9 24.2 30.3 85 1010.7 NE 3 7 6 3
DEC 722.1 23 28.7 22.8 25.8 26.2 24.3 23.7 29.3 86 1011.9 NE 3 7 2 1
ANNUAL 3,362.9 175 30.8 23 27.0 27.3 25.0 24.2 30.3 84 1010.3 NE 2 6 98 73
Source: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), 2022

Definition of Terms:
Climatological Normals - Period averages computed for a uniform and relative long period comprising at least three (3) consecutive10-year period.
Rainfall Amount (column 2) - The amount of precipitation (rain, hail, etc.) expressed in millimeters depth of the layer of the water which has fallen.
Number of Rainy Days (column 3) - A rainy day is defined as a period of 24 hours beginning at 8AM to 8 AM of the next day during which at least 1
mm of rain is recorded.
Maximum Temperature (column 4) - The maximum temperature in °C recorded for the day, usually occurring in the early afternoon. Minimum
Temperature (column 5) - The minimum temperature in °C recorded for the day, usually occurring during early hours of the morning (before sunrise).
Mean Temperature (column 6) - The average of the maximum and minimum temperature in °C recorded for the day. Mean Temperature = Maximum
+ Minimum / 2
Dry Bulb Temperature (column 7) - It gives the air temperature in °C at the time of observation.
Wet Bulb Temperature (column 8) - It gives the temperature in °C that an air parcel would have if cooled adiabatically to saturation at constant
pressure by evaporating water in it.
Dew Point Temperature (column 9) - The temperature in °C at a given pressure, to which the air must be cooled to become saturated. It is the
temperature when atmospheric moisture begins to condense to liquid forming “dew” upon objects.
Vapor Pressure (column10) - Denotes the partial pressure of water vapor in atmosphere in millibars (mbs). As the water evaporates, additional water
vapor is introduced into space above and pressure increases slightly as the new vapor is added. The increasing pressure is due to an increase in the
partial pressure of water vapor.
Relative Humidity (column 11) - The ratio of the amount of water vapor actually in the air to the maximum amount the air can hold at that
temperature.
Mean Sea Level Pressure (column 12) - The force exerted by the weight of the atmosphere on a unit area at mean sea level. It is also the atmospheric
pressure at mean sea level measured in millibars.
Prevailing Winds (column 13 & 14) - The prevailing wind direction expressed using the 16 compass points which is most frequently observed during
a given period while the average wind speed in meters per second is the arithmetic average of the observed wind speed.
Cloud Amount (column 15) - The amount of cloud present in the sky, expressed in oktas of the sky cover. Okta is the function used in denoting cloud
amount and is equal to 1/8 of the whole sky.
Days with Thunderstorm (column 16a) - A thunderstorm day is defined as an observational day during which thunder is recorded at the station.
Days with Lightning (column 16b) - A day with lightning is reported whenever lightning is observed

Table 7. Climatological Extremes of Mulanay from 1950 to 2021

YEAR: AS OF 2021 ELEVATION: 5 m
GREATEST DAILY
TEMPERATURE (°C) STRONGEST WINDS (mps) SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mbs)
RAINFALL (mm)
MONTH
HIGH DATE LOW DATE AMOUNT DATE SPD DIR DATE HIGH DATE LOW DATE
JAN 34.4 01-15-1970 17.1 01-16-1967 160.0 01-02-1960 17 NE 01-16-2001 1021.5 01-18-1959 1000.5 01-09-1972
FEB 33.4 02-06-1974 17.0 02-09-1983 180.0 02-03-2000 18 NE 02-02-1977 1021.9 02-01-1962 999.7 02-18-1973
MAR 35.6 03-12-1970 17.8 03-06-1967 185.0 03-24-1980 15 N 03-04-1977 1021.6 03-05-1977 1001.7 03-06-1999
APR 36.4 04-19-2007 18.9 04-14-1971 191.4 04-29-2009 12 NE 04-28-1975 1019.4 04-06-1970 1003.2 04-23-1999
MAY 37.8 05-23-1969 20.0 05-23-1976 255.6 05-15-2020 32 NNE 05-26-1971 1017.5 05-04-1989 992.2 05-17-1989
JUN 37.0 06-11-1989 21.0 06-23-1998 286.0 06-29-1964 22 SSW 06-25-1972 1016.7 06-04-1976 980.7 06-24-1972
JUL 36.1 07-27-1964 19.0 07-14-1982 362.3 07-31-2009 60 SSW 07-14-1983 1016.4 07-03-1989 975.6 07-14-1983
AUG 37.2 08-26-1969 20.0 08-28-1972 254.2 08-12-2002 22 N 08-12-1987 1016.0 08-16-1981 996.2 08-06-1964
36.2 09-07-1968 20.7 09-14-2007 537.5 09-11-2017 25 SW 09-09-1982 1018.4 09-27-1982 996.6 09-27-1978
SEP
996.6 09-14-2018
OCT 35.1 10-12-1964 19.8 10-08-1993 315.6 10-28-1980 80 E 10-10-1989 1018.6 10-23-1982 971.6 10-13-1970

YEAR: AS OF 2021 ELEVATION: 5 m
GREATEST DAILY
TEMPERATURE (°C) STRONGEST WINDS (mps) SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mbs)
RAINFALL (mm)
MONTH
HIGH DATE LOW DATE AMOUNT DATE SPD DIR DATE HIGH DATE LOW DATE
NOV 35.0 11-04-1966 18.0 11-25-1987 335.9 11-02-1992 69 SW 11-19-1970 1019.9 11-30-1989 965.6 11-03-1967
DEC 34.0 12-14-1963 18.0 12-31-1977 673.0 12-27-1975 22 NE 12-27-1966 1020.5 12-07-1960 990.8 12-05-1993
ANNUAL 37.8 05-23-1969 17.0 02-09-1983 673.0 12-27-1975 80 E 10-10-1989 1021.9 02-01-1962 965.6 11-03-1967
Period of
1962 - 2021 1952 - 2021 1966 - 2021 1957 - 2021
Record
Source: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), 2022

B. Projected Climate
Quezon Province is projected to generally experience an increase in temperature and
increase in rainfall for all seasons from 2036 to 2065, according to the PAGASA’s
publication in 2018 titled “Observed Climate Trends and Projected Change in the
Philippines. The data breakdown on the specific changes for both climate variables are
indicated Table 7. All projections are taken from the climate scenario of Moderate
Emission (RCP4.5).
For the temperature variable, Amihan (December-January-February) season, summer

season (March-April-May), and Habagat (June-July-August) season will increase by 1.2°C
from the observed baselines. The SON (September-October-November) season will
increase by 1.1°C in 2036. The specific temperature projections in the mid-21st century
for the four (4) climate seasons are 26.3°C, 28.4°C, 28.8°C, and 27.8°C respectively. The
highest projected temperatures in 2036 will likely occur during JJA seasons.
Consequently, JJA seasons in 2050 will also have the least projected precipitation with its
specific change actually going down by -17.2 millimeters of rainfall. In the time range of
2036-2065 rainfall is projected at 897.2 mm during DJF, 418.4 mm during MAM, and
1,249.0 mm during SON. This possibly coincides with the findings of PAGASA’s report
observing that higher rainfall projections are related to more extreme rainfall events.
Table 8. Summary of Climate Change Projections (2036-2065) in Mulanay, Quezon

Observed Specific Projected General
Climate Baseline Change Climate Changes in Information about
Season
Variable (1971- Expected Data Climate Patterns of Change
2000) 2036-2065 2036-2065 Variables
Increased - Temperature
DJF 25.1 1.2 26.3
temperature projections in all
Temperature (in °C)
Increased seasons are

MAM 27.2 1.2 28.4 expected to
temperature
Increased increase
JJA 27.6 1.2 28.8 - Habagat (JJA)
temperature
seasons and the
MAM season will
Increased have greater
SON 26.7 1.1 27.8
temperature temperature
increase
- All seasonal
DJF 827.7 8.4 897.2 More rainfall
rainfall patterns are
projected to
millimeters)
Rainfall (in
MAM 382.7 9.3 418.4 More rainfall increase except for

the summer
JJA 670.0 -17.2 554.9 Less rainfall seasons (MAM)
- Volume and
SON 1,229.3 1.6 1,249.0 More rainfall intensity of rainfall
will increase
Source: Observed Climate Trends and Projected Change in the Philippines (published by
PAGASA, 2018)

C. Potential Impacts and Effects of Climate Change

To grasp the consequences of the climate change projections outlined earlier, it is vital to
comprehend its impacts by examining the ongoing and potential sequence of events as
climate variables evolve from the planning year to the middle of the 21st century. Utilizing
climate impact chain analysis, we contextualized the repercussions of elevated
temperatures and increased rainfall anticipated in the future. This analysis involved
evaluating the effects on four ecosystems: Forest, Agriculture, Urban, and Coastal.
1. Forest Ecosystem
Increased temperatures directly impact forest ecosystems, causing drought, forest fires,
and the drying of rivers and creeks. This leads to visible soil cracks, reduced soil nutrients,
and heightened evaporation rates, depleting water supplies and affecting irrigation
facilities. The resultant scarcity of food supply may reduce the income of local farmers
and fisherfolk, pushing them to exploit natural resources for temporary income, such as
logging or selling native plants. If not addressed, these actions could contribute to
biodiversity loss.
Elevated temperatures pose a significant risk of reducing the volume or entirely drying
up the inland water sources in the municipality, notably its rivers and springs. Current
reports indicate instances of rivers running dry during the summer, a trend expected to
intensify with the ongoing rise in seasonal temperatures. Consequently, the wildlife in the
forest stands to lose access to essential drinking water. The plants in the forest, crucial as
food sources for these animals, may also succumb to the hotter weather, further
exacerbating the challenge. This could compel the forest-dwelling animals to either
migrate to alternative locations or face the dire consequences of starvation and death
within the forest ecosystem.
Figure 4. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Temperature to the Forest Ecosystem

of Mulanay, Quezon
Hotter environments coupled with prolonged exposure to the sun can follow forest fires
as there are more flammable dry materials. Forest fires destroy a huge part of wildlife
habitat and destroy many plant and animal species. As the forest habitats are disturbed,

pest outbreaks may also happen. Higher temperatures could also increase the incidences
of insect outbreaks since higher temperatures increase their survival and growth. Many
of the impacts leading to loss of biodiversity could have critical adverse effects since it can
permanently damage processes and services of the specific ecosystem.
On the other hand, the impacts of increased rainfall to forests are: rain-induced landslides,
flooding, and increased water supply. More rainfall can lead to rain-induced landslides,
which erode the vegetation and trees, especially in the steeper areas. Since there are
fewer trees to hold rainwater, these denuded parts of the forestlands cause heavier flow
of water streaming down to the lowlands, mostly flooding the agricultural lands and
roads. Reduced forest cover also destroys the natural local ecosystems and habitats,
reducing the species richness of affected areas. Flooding is also an issue with the
increased amount of rainfall. It can cause surface run-off and erosion of river boundaries.
Eroded materials flow with the river and siltation of materials towards sea environments
can also make the shallow parts inhabitable for fishes. Surface run-off may also increase
the possibility of water contamination which is the root cause of water-borne diseases
such as typhoid and cholera, possibly increasing the morbidity and mortality rate of the
municipality. Although, if not necessarily destructive, this climate variable will definitely
increase water supplies. Water can be directed towards the faster production of crops,
turning up more food supply and profits. If rainwater is collected and treated properly,
people’s health and sanitation is also greatly maintained.
Figure 5. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Rainfall to the Forest Ecosystem of

Mulanay, Quezon

2. Agriculture Ecosystem
The anticipated rise in temperature poses significant adverse impacts on agriculture,

including dry spells, heightened risks of poultry and livestock diseases, the emergence of
crop pests, and an increase in the frequency of stronger typhoons.
Dry spells, a direct consequence of elevated temperatures, negatively affect agricultural

productivity, leading to reduced water supply and soil moisture. This results in visible
cracks in farmlands. The intensified evaporation in hotter weather exacerbates these
issues, discouraging farmers from planting due to the likelihood of poor crop quality or
no yield at all. This, in turn, limits farmers' income and reduces the community's food
supply.
Warmer weather conditions elevate the susceptibility of livestock and poultry to diseases,
disrupting their immune systems and diminishing their food appetite and reproductive
urges. The close interaction and sometimes crowded conditions in farms and backyards
facilitate the rapid spread of diseases, leading to higher mortality rates. This results in a
lower meat supply in the market and increased prices.
Additionally, hotter weather gives rise to certain crop pests and diseases, further
contributing to declines in crop production. The heightened temperatures are also
associated with the occurrence of stronger typhoons, causing extensive and costly
damages to crops, ultimately leading to a reduction in overall crop supply.
Figure 6. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Temperature to the Agriculture

Ecosystem of Mulanay, Quezon
The anticipated rise in rainfall is expected to result in primary effects such as flooding and
landslides, which, in turn, pose significant challenges to agricultural production and
economic activities in the future. Heavy rainfall causing flooding leads to surface run-off
and soil oversaturation, depleting soil nutrients and hindering crop growth, ultimately

yielding low-quality harvests. Floods also render roads impassable, disrupting the
transportation of agricultural produce. In upland areas, rain-induced landslides become
a prominent issue, damaging crops due to heavier streams of water. The resulting low-
quality crops and perished produce, coupled with transportation delays, translate into
substantial financial losses for farmers, potentially discouraging them from continuing
farming and pushing them toward alternative economic activities. Limited job options
might even drive residents, including farmers, to consider migration outside the
municipality.
On a positive note, the increased rainfall could benefit the agriculture sector by elevating
water levels in the municipality's water sources. This presents an opportunity for the
establishment of water impounding facilities and rainwater collection projects, which
could be utilized for irrigation systems. If properly treated, the collected water may also
serve as an additional source for built-up areas, contributing to water availability.
Figure 7. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Rainfall to the Agriculture Ecosystem

of Mulanay, Quezon

3. Urban Ecosystem
Increasing temperatures in the urban ecosystem contribute to a warmer climate,

impacting water supply and health. Elevated temperatures lead to slower aquifer
recharge, reducing water availability in the municipality. Limited water supply
compromises community health and sanitation, giving rise to heat-related illnesses and
skin conditions. This health burden increases the demand for medical services, potentially
raising morbidity rates and the risk of deaths, particularly among those with underlying
health conditions.
Simultaneously, higher temperatures drive increased energy consumption as people use

cooling appliances more frequently. This elevated power usage raises family expenses,
diverting income from immediate needs and potentially causing frequent power
disruptions or "brownouts" due to excessive energy demand relative to supply.
Furthermore, the faster evaporation of moisture in hotter temperatures leaves more

flammable material in the environment. Coupled with higher relative humidity, this
increases the likelihood of fire incidents. Uncontrolled fires can lead to extensive property
damage, requiring significant expenses for reconstruction and posing the risk of
casualties.
Figure 8. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Temperature to the Urban Ecosystem

of Mulanay, Quezon
Increased seasonal rainfall poses a significant risk of flooding in built-up areas, causing
extensive damage to roads, canals, settlements, and infrastructure. Flooded roads impede
transportation, leading to delays in various municipal activities, hindering social and
economic productivity. Delays in goods and services delivery can be particularly
inconvenient and may limit the movement of emergency vehicles.
Overflowing canals during flooding can serve as vectors for disease-causing pathogens,
potentially contaminating the water supply. This raises the risk of illnesses such as

cholera, leptospirosis, and dengue, resulting in increased hospitalizations and potential

fatalities.
The high floodwaters also damage settlements and buildings, necessitating expenses for
repair or rehabilitation. Furthermore, heavy rainfall and frequent rainy days impede the
construction of ongoing infrastructure projects, making it challenging for laborers to
work and machinery to operate effectively in wet conditions.
Figure 9. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Rainfall to the Urban Ecosystem of

Mulanay, Quezon

4. Coastal Ecosystem
Increased sea temperatures have direct impacts on the coastal ecosystem, including coral
bleaching, reduced fishing activities, and red tide occurrences. Prolonged high
temperatures lead to coral bleaching and death, posing risks to other marine species by
diminishing breeding grounds and prompting a search for more favorable habitats.
The consequences of warmer sea temperatures, such as coral bleaching, disruptions to

fishing activities, and red tide incidents, contribute to the destruction of coastal
ecosystems and a decline in production. Coral bleaching, in particular, disrupts marine
habitats, prompting species migration and reducing coastal biodiversity. This results in
lower fish catches and diminished income for traditional fishing communities. In
response, some may resort to destructive and illegal fishing methods, like dynamite
fishing and bottom trawling, further harming marine ecosystems.
Conversely, the hotter seasons may bring a positive effect, with potential increases in
tourist arrivals. The municipality's numerous beaches offer tourism opportunities,
potentially boosting profits for certain commodities and increasing income for locals
engaged in the tourism industry.
Figure 10. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Temperature to the Coastal

Ecosystem of Mulanay, Quezon
An increase in seasonal rainfall in coastal ecosystems typically results in flooding,

diminished fishing activity, and disruptions to sea trips. Coastal communities
experiencing flooding may suffer from coastal erosion, exacerbated by the influx of
rainwater carrying silt and garbage into the sea. This heightened water pollution poses
risks to marine life, as plastics mistaken for food can be ingested by marine animals, while
larger debris can damage boats and cause accidents. The unsightly appearance of a

garbage-laden shore diminishes the site's potential as a tourist destination, reducing

visitor numbers.
Heavy rainfall also poses risks to fisherfolks engaged in fishing activities, as safety
concerns restrict open-sea fishing during such weather conditions. The frequent
occurrence of heavy rains leads to a reduction in fish catch, resulting in a diminished
supply of marine products and a decrease in income for the fishing community. The
dangers associated with sea travel, including sea patrol and rescue operations, lead to the
suspension of cargo and passenger transport, contributing to the loss or decline of
revenue from fishing activities and other livelihoods dependent on marine areas.
Figure 11. Potential Impacts of Increased Seasonal Rainfall to the Coastal Ecosystem of
Mulanay, Quezon

III. DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

Being a coastal municipality with hilly areas, Mulanay is exposed to both
hydrometeorological and geologic hazards. Hydrometeorological hazards are water-
related events caused by intense weather phenomenon while geologic hazards or
geohazards are adverse conditions or processes that are based on the earth’s physical
structure, substance, and internal movements. While the latter is much harder to predict,
the former is more adversely affected by drastic changes in climate which could further
exacerbate difficult living conditions in the future. This could manifest in more
devastating extreme weather events, unpredictable patterns of atmospheric elements
which could potentially throw off mechanisms of preparation against hazards, causing
major disruption of human activities or even loss of life. It is therefore of valuable
information and concern to identify and study the existing hazards in a municipality to be
able to avoid disasters.
A. History of Previous Disasters

The municipality of Mulanay has faced a series of diverse disasters, prompting key
informant interviews and secondary data gathering to compile information on past
incidents. Analyzing this data will enhance our understanding of the trends, patterns, and
intensity of disasters, highlighting frequently affected areas and aiding in the
development of mitigation strategies for future hazards. The table below provides a
summary of the collected information. From 1985 to mid-2022, numerous disasters,
largely attributed to typhoons, occurred, leading to hazards like floods and high tidal
waves. Additionally, non-typhoon hydrometeorological events, though not officially
declared as typhoons, caused significant damages and recorded deaths.
Table 9. Historical Information on Previous Disasters in Mulanay, Quezon

Name/Description
Year Affected Area/s Impact
of Hazard
1989 Earthquake Coastal Barangays Frequent rising of high tides
Mt. Pinatubo
1991 All Barangays Ashfall
Eruption
Damages on crops, houses,
Super Typhoon
1995 All Barangays road, and critical facilities,
Rosing
Flooding and Landslides
Typhoon Milenyo All Barangays road, and critical facilities,
Flooding
Typhoon Reming All Barangays road, and critical facilities,
2006
Crops such as banana, corn,
vegetables and coconut were
Drought Lowland barangay
also affected. Water sources
was also depleted
1 Missing, Damages on crops,
2011 Typhoon Juaning All Barangays houses, road, and critical
facilities, Flooding
2 Injured, Damages on crops,
2013 Typhoon Yolanda All Barangays houses, road, and critical
facilities

Name/Description
Year Affected Area/s Impact
of Hazard
31 Injured, Damages on crops,
Typhoon Glenda All Barangays houses, road, critical facilities
and power outage, Flooding
2014 2 Injured, Damages on crops,
houses, road, and critical
Typhoon Ruby All Barangays
facilities, Flooding and
Landslides
Rice fields and fishing areas
dried out. Other crops such as
2015 El Niño All Barangays
banana, corn, vegetables and
coconut were also affected
2015 Typhoon Nona All Barangays Damages on crops and houses
2 Dead, 1 Injured, Damages on
2016 Typhoon Nina All Barangays crops, houses, road, critical
facilities and power outage
Damages on crops and houses,
2019 Typhoon Tisoy All Barangays
Typhoon Ambo All Barangays Damages on crops and houses
Typhoon Quinta All Barangays Damages on crops and houses
2020 Super Typhoon
All Barangays road, critical facilities and
Rolly
power outage, Flooding
Typhoon Ulysses All Barangays Damages on crops and houses
No harvest due to 6-9 months
2021 El Niño Lowland Barangay of no rainfall; dried out pumps
and springs
African swine fever
All Barangays Majority of the swine died
(ASF)
No
Significant number of coconut
confirmed Cocolisap All Rural Barangays
trees infested
year of
Inability to go fishing,
occurrence
impossible to dry fish
or occurring
Habagat Coastal Barangay Garbage from the ocean are
annually
brought back to the shores by
the waves
Source: Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office, Municipal Environment
and Natural Resources Office, and Key Informant Interviews, 2022

B. Hazard Susceptibility
To identify hazards in the municipality, barangay interviews with relevant stakeholders
were conducted, as well as the validation during the CDRA workshop proper and ground
validation in the barangays. The accuracy and correctness of this information is combined
using GIS to downscale map data of hazards to municipal level. The hydrometeorological
hazards in Mulanay are Flooding, Storm Surge, and Rain-induced Landslide; meanwhile,
geologic hazards include Liquefaction, Ground Shaking, and Earthquake-induced
Landslide.
Table 10. Hazard Inventory of Mulanay, Quezon

Fault Earthquake Sea
Barangay Flood Landslide Line Typhoon (Ground Liquefaction Level
Trace Shaking) Rise
Ajos Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes Yes
Amuguis Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Anonang None Yes None Yes Yes None None
Bagong Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes None
Silang
Bagupaye Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Barangay 1 Yes None None Yes Yes Yes Yes
(Pob.)
(Pob.)
Barangay 3 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
(Pob.)
(Pob.)
Bolo Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes None
Buenavista None Yes Yes Yes Yes None None
Burgos Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes None
Butanyog Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Canuyep Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes Yes
F. Nanadiego Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Ibabang Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes None
Cambuga
Ibabang Yuni Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes Yes
Ilayang None Yes Yes Yes Yes None None
Cambuga
(Mabini)
Ilayang Yuni Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes Yes
Latangan Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes Yes
Magsaysay None Yes None Yes Yes None None
Matataja Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes Yes
Pakiing Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes None
Patabog Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sagongon None Yes Yes Yes Yes None Yes
San Isidro Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
San Pedro Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes None
Santa Rosa Yes Yes None Yes Yes Yes Yes
Source: Key Informant Interviews and GIS-derived data, 2022

1. Flood Susceptibility
Flood is “an abnormal progressive rise in the water level of a stream that may result in
the over-flowing by the water of the normal confines of the stream with the subsequent
inundation of areas which are not normally submerged", according to PAGASA. All coastal
barangays in Mulanay are exposed to flooding hazards. Flood hazards in Mulanay
commonly occurs near tributaries and coasts, as well as the mangrove areas. Data
gathered suggests that flood hazards have two magnitudes of susceptibility: high and low
to moderate.
Flood susceptibility spans about 1,782.31 hectares, which is 5.56 percent of the total land
area including High and Moderate susceptibility. High susceptibility to flood accounting
to 982.31 hectares indicates that during strong precipitation events, these areas are easily
flooded with levels greater than one (1) meter while Moderate susceptible to flooding is
around 803.81 hectares which flood level of about 0.5 meter to one (1) meter. The study
will be focusing on the Barangays with large portions exposed to high flood susceptibility
are barangays Ajos (Sto. Niño) (48.16 Has.), Amuguis (14.18 Has.), Bagong Silang (9.03
Has.), Bagupaye (85.32 Has.), Barangay 1 (Pob.) (3.16 Has.), Barangay 2 (Pob.) (8.56 Has.),
Barangay 4 (Pob.)(1.86 Has.), Canuyep (134.93 Has.), F. Nañadiego (79.96 Has.), Ibabang
Yuni (156.18 Has.), Latangan (97.60 Has.), Matataja(57.23 Has.), Patabog (115.77 Has.)
and Santa Rosa (92.97 Has.). The land use most exposed is the mangrove areas, followed
by mixed agricultural areas. Urban areas exposed include residential, commercial,
Utilities, parks and open spaces and institutional.
2. Rain-induced Landslide Susceptibility
PHIVOLCS defines landslide as “the mass movement of rock, soil, and debris down a slope
due to gravity.” Rain-induced landslides are landslides triggered by intense rainfall. All
barangays are exposed to rain-induced landslides at varying susceptibilities. There is a
total of 10,751.94 hectares (33.52 percent of total land area) exposed to high rain-induced
landslide susceptibility. For moderate susceptibility there are 17,359.68 hectares (54.13
percent of total land area). Meanwhile, low susceptibility covers about 3,859.36 hectares
(12.03 percent of total land area) of land uses.
For high susceptibility areas, Bagong Silang have the largest exposure of 172.07 hectares
which is 85.5% of its land area, followed by Magsaysay with 1,504.05 hectares with
77.21%, Burgos with 2,147.82 hectares with around 70.28% and F. Nañadiego with
987.74 hectares which 65.87% of its total land area is exposed to landslide. Followed by
Sagongon with 161.18 hectares and Anonang with 694.64 hectares that are above 50% of
its area exposed to landslide.
The land uses with the greatest exposure to high susceptibility are mixed agriculture and
forest areas. Urban land uses highly exposed are residential, institutional, cemetery,
utilities.
Moderate susceptibility to rain-induced landslides covers mostly of the area and must be
subject to ground validation and continuous study for it to be declare as hazard zone
areas. For the planning purposes the high susceptibility zone will be used because of its
historical evidence to occur in each delineated area.

3. Storm Surge Susceptibility
Storm surge susceptible areas are categorized into “prone or not prone”, indicating that
“prone” covers the four (4) levels of storm surge susceptibility. Storm surge maps were
generated under the DOST-Project NOAH program at the National Institute of Geological
Sciences (NIGS), University of the Philippines. The sub-program entitled “System to
Identify, Quantify and Map the Storm Surge Threat to Philippine Coasts” was
implemented by PAGASA in cooperation with research scientists from NIGS as the
principal developers of the hazard maps.
The project is a DOST Grant-In-Aid project under Project NOAH implemented by PAGASA.
The project aims to enhance the disaster- forecasting capabilities of PAGASA by beginning
to generate detailed maps of storm surge and inundation susceptibilities by using Japan
Meteorological Agency storm surge model in simulating 721 tropical cyclones that
entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1951-2013. Maximum tide levels from
the WXTide software were added to the result of storm surge simulation.
The storm tide levels were categorized into four groups based on their peak height to
create the Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) categorized as SSA 1 (0.01m to 2m), SSA 2 (2.01m
to 3m), SSA 3 (3.01m to 4m), and SSA 4 (4m and above).
About 2-3 meters surges were observed by the residents and by ground validation of the
storm surges occurrence in the Municipality. This is equivalent to the Storm Surge
Advisory number 2 of PAGASA which will be used in the generation of Data for risk
assessment. Areas closer to the shores like barangay Patabog, Ibabang Yuni, Canuyep,
Ajos and Poblacion Areas have greater exposure and susceptibility which measures at
214.46 hectares. The greatest area of the land uses exposed to storm surge are mixed
lowland agricultural areas. And it is followed by mangrove areas. Urban use areas that are
greatly prone to storm surge susceptibility are residential, commercial, and institutional
areas.
4. Earthquake-induced Landslide Susceptibility
Earthquake-induced landslide (EIL) hazard map was produced by simulating the largest
possible earthquake occurred on 1973 Magnitude 7.3 Earthquake along Guinayangan
Fault at Ragay Segment. Landslide potentials were calculated using A) the computed
Factor of Safety (FoS), B) simulated ground shaking by Fukushima and Tanaka, and C)

critical acceleration of slope by Newmark method. The result shows the possible landslide
initiation zones at varying degrees, i.e. high, moderate, low.
Landslide generated by earthquake has a very devastating effect to the Municipality.

Among these areas are those situated on the unstable slope and limestone-based
formation found in Barangay Sto. Niño, Sta. Rosa, Butanyog, San Isidro, Sagongon,
Canuyep, Patabog and Ibabang Yuni which are all coastal barangays.
Movement of the ground is the main trigger for earthquake-induced landslides (EIL). The
total area of High Exceedance expose to earthquake-induced landslide is 4,630.44
hectares, which is 14.44 percent of the total land area.
Barangays that have higher exposure to high earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility

are Barangays of Mabini (568.35 hectares), Cambuga (997.06 hectares), San Pedro
(355.49 hectares), Ilayang Yuni (761.23 hectares), Pakiing (533.05 hectares), San Isidro
(152.50 hectares), Anonang (173.35 hectares), and Butanyog (28.66 hectares). The most
affected land use is agriculture, followed by forestlands, the same as the hazards
discussed above. Critical built-up areas affected by earthquake-induced landslides at high
susceptibility are residential, road networks, institutional, and commercial.
Meanwhile, for areas located in moderate susceptibility, 1,551.62 hectares (4.84 percent
of total land area) of land uses are exposed. These are mostly identified in barangays
Pakiing (354.45 hectares), San Pedro (164.06 hectares), and F. Nañadiego (161.54
hectares). The land uses greatly exposed in these areas are agriculture, forestlands, road
networks, commercial and residential.
5. Liquefaction Susceptibility
According to PHIVOLCS, liquefaction is a phenomenon in which saturated, cohesionless

sediments suddenly lose their strength and stiffness due to strong shaking. This can make
them flow like a liquid, and it can cause significant damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Soil liquefaction can be caused by earthquakes, volcanoes, or other large-scale ground

movements. When the ground shakes, it can cause the water in the soil to move rapidly.
This can cause the soil to lose its ability to support the weight of the buildings and other
structures above it, which can lead to liquefaction. Relatively all barangays that are prone
to flooding are also prone to liquefaction. These barangays are Ajos (Sto. Niño), Amuguis,
Bagong Silang, Bagupaye, Barangay 1 (Pob.), Barangay 2 (Pob.), Barangay 4 (Pob.), Bolo,
Butanyog, Canuyep, F. Nañadiego, Ibabang Yuni, Latangan, Matataja, Patabog and Santa
Rosa.
The total area susceptible to liquefaction is 1,931.51 hectares, which is only 6.02 percent
of the total land area of Mulanay. Agricultural land uses are the most exposed to
liquefaction and followed by mangrove areas. Residential, commercial, and institutional
are the most exposed urban use areas.
6. Ground Shaking Susceptibility
Ground shaking hazards are the direct effect of movements cause by earthquakes. Ground
shaking is the “disruptive up, down and sideways vibration of the ground during an
earthquake” (PHIVOLCS, n.d.). According to the KIIs conducted, this hazard is present in
all barangays. This is also evident in the active fault map (refer to Map 2) which suggests
that there are active fault lines near the municipality.

Ground shaking susceptibility in Mulanay is differentiated using the PHIVOLCS

Earthquake Intensity Scale (PEIS). Intensity Scale VII is described as “destructive” while
Intensity Scale VIII and above could range from “very destructive” to “completely
devastating.” Areas exposed to Intensity Scale VII spans about 18531.88 hectares, and
Intensity Scale VIII and above measures to 13438.00 hectares.
Areas that could potentially experience PEIS VIII and above at a larger scale are 12 upland
barangays of Anonang (1240.03 hectares), Bagupaye (612.09 hectares), Bolo (562.61
hectares), Buenavista (2711.26 hectares), Burgos (3055.76 hectares), F. Nañadiego
(69.19 hectares), Cambuga (3055.76 hectares), Mabini (1289.99 hectares), Ilayang Yuni
(391.05 hectares), Magsaysay (1548.07 hectares), Pakiing (1141.04 hectares) and San
Pedro (790.12 hectares). Most affected land uses are agriculture, forest, institutional and
residential.
On the other hand, there are 16 Barangays that exposed to PEIS VII intensity covering
18,531.88 hectares of the land area of the Municipality. Mixed agriculture land use and
residential areas are the only land uses that are potentially susceptible to this intensity.

Map 2. Geologic and Active Faults Map of Mulanay, Quezon

Map 3. Flood Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon

Map 4. Rain-induced Landslide Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon

Map 5. Storm Surge Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon

Map 6. Earthquake-induced Landslide Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon

Map 7. Liquefaction Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon

Map 8. Ground Shaking Susceptibility Map of Mulanay, Quezon

C. Exposure and Risk to Hazards
1. Population
The population exposure unit of climate and disaster risk assessment refers to the
number of people exposed to hazards identified relative to spatial location. Based on map
overlays using GIS, the population of Mulanay is exposed to three (3) hazards: flood,
landslide, and storm surge. The likelihood of occurrence of each hazard was gathered
through barangay consultations.
The risk assessment is conducted by measuring the level of exposure, sensitivity, and
adaptive capacity. The indicators used for measuring sensitivity were: (1) percentage of
informal settlers, (2) percentage of people living in dwelling units made from light
materials or salvageable materials, (3) percentage of young and old dependents, (4)
percentage of persons with disabilities, and (5) percentage below the poverty threshold.
For the adaptive capacity: (1) access to infrastructure-related mitigation measures, (2)
access to financial assistance, (3) capacity and willingness to retrofit or relocate, (4)
access to information, and (5) government investments. The sensitivity and adaptive
capacity indicators are used to determine the vulnerability of populations which is then
calculated to produce a risk score and risk category.
For the baseline information of exposed population, Community Based Monitoring

System (CBMS) Survey mapped points of Households was used in the municipality. As of
the latest 2022 CBMS, there are 54,068 population living in the municipality, with a total
of 13,333 households.
Flood
Twenty-one (21) out of the 28 barangays are exposed to flooding. According to the
generated maps about 10.28 hectares of the residential areas of the municipality are
affected generated in a high susceptibility to flooding scenario. Based on CBMS Survey,
1,495 Household with around 5,980 population (11.06 percent of the total population)
are residing in the exposed areas. Majority of which are in low-lying areas, coastal
communities, or near rivers.
In terms of risk, only barangays of Anonang, Bagong Silang, Barangay 3 (Pob.), Buenavista,
Ilayang Yuni, Mabini, Magsaysay, Pakiing, Sagongon, San Isidro and San Pedro are not at
risk to flooding in the municipality. The 14 exposed barangays are from high to very high
risk with approximately 5,980 affected people. This is caused, generally, by the low
adaptive capacity measures of these 14 barangays and the return period of the hazard, as
all barangays reported that flooding has occurred every year in certain areas of their
locality.
Around 39.01 hectares of the residential areas are at very high risk to flooding with an
estimated populace of 3,448 people and must be included in regularly monitored areas as
they are at very high risk of flood occurrences.
Table 11. Population Exposure and Risk to Flood in Mulanay, Quezon

Exposed No. of No. of
Residential Exposure Risk
Barangay Susceptibility Area HH People
Area (ha) Percentage Category
(ha) Exposed Exposed
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Moderate to 9.04 1.86 61 244 12.41%
High
High

Exposed No. of No. of

Residential Exposure Risk
Barangay Susceptibility Area HH People
Area (ha) Percentage Category
(ha) Exposed Exposed
Amuguis Moderate to 0.56 0.09 39 156 19.45%
High
High
Anonang Low 2.07 0 0 0 0.00% Low
Bagong Silang Low 0.23 0 0 0 0.00% Low
Bagupaye Moderate to 12.58 3.42 58 232 8.01%
High
High
Barangay 1 (Pob.) Moderate to 5.17 5.16 134 536 35.40%
Very High
High
Very High
High
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 5.67 0.81 2 8 0.63% Low
High
High
Bolo Moderate to 0.51 0 2 8 0.80%
Moderate
High
Buenavista Low 1.66 0 0 0 0.00% Low
Burgos Low 1.01 0 2 8 0.55% Moderate
Butanyog Moderate to 5.83 0.88 40 160 7.56%
High
High
Cambuga Moderate to 17.2 0 5 20 0.52%
Moderate
High
Canuyep Moderate to 6.14 2.81 89 356 18.05%
High
High
F. Nañadiego Moderate to 8.02 1.07 34 136 6.51%
High
High
Ibabang Yuni Moderate to 5.49 2.48 99 396 19.09%
High
High
Ilayang Yuni Low 15.15 0 2 8 0.19% Low
Latangan Moderate to 2.14 0.85 102 408 26.67%
Very High
High
Mabini Low 1.53 0 0 0 0.00% Low
Magsaysay Low 0.28 0 0 0 0.00% Low
Matataja Moderate to 5.9 1.07 53 212 13.31%
High
High
Pakiing Low 9.58 0.43 2 8 0.23% Low
Patabog Moderate to 17.65 9.85 330 1320 37.13%
Very High
High
Sagongon Low 0.09 0 0 0 0.00% Low
San Isidro Low 4.54 0 0 0 0.00% Low
San Pedro Low 1.65 0 0 0 0.00% Low
Santa Rosa Moderate to 18.32 10.28 115 460 11.66%
High
High
Landslide
All barangays of Mulanay are exposed to landslide that occur in the hilly areas or locations
where land is very uneven. This hazard has three (3) susceptibility categories: low,
moderate, and high which applies to majority of the barangays while the Poblacion 1,
Poblacion 2 and Poblacion 4) are with low susceptibility. According to most local
representatives, landslides are occasionally to rarely occurring except for barangays
Burgos, Magsaysay, F. Nañadiego, Sagongon, Anonang, Amuguis, Buenavista and San
Isidro where these events are common.
The total area of residential areas exposed to landslide is 175.42 hectares which cover of
the residential area of the municipality. From the total, areas highly susceptible amount
to 14.88 hectares and 52.74 hectares for moderately susceptible, and 107.78 hectares for
low susceptibility areas. Further estimation shows that 6,768 individuals are living in high

susceptible exposed areas. This accounts to the 12.52 percent of the total population of
the municipality.
Regarding risk, Mulanay have areas that are at low to very high risk to landslides.
Barangays at high to very high risk to landslides are barangays Amuguis, Anonang,
Bagong Silang, Barangay 3 (Pob.), Bolo, Buenavista, Burgos, Butanyog, Canuyep, F.
Nañadiego, Magsaysay, Sagongon, San Isidro and San Pedro which have high
susceptibility turned out to be only at low risk.
Overall, the barangays in Mulanay, Quezon are at moderate to high risk of landslides. This
is due to a combination of factors, including the barangays' location in a mountainous
area, the presence of steep slopes, and the type of soil. The local government should take
steps to mitigate the risk of landslides, such as by building retaining walls and educating
residents about landslide safety.
Table 12. Population Exposure and Risk to Landslide in Mulanay, Quezon

No. of
Landslide Residential Exposed No. of HH Exposure Risk
Barangay People
Susceptibility Area (ha) Area (ha) Exposed Percentage Category
Exposed
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Moderate 9.04 0.13 26 104 5.29% Moderate
Amuguis High 0.56 0.13 63 252 31.42% High
Anonang High 2.07 0.45 114 456 35.46% High
Bagong Silang High 0.23 0.23 46 184 67.90% High
Bagupaye Moderate 12.58 0.20 43 172 5.94% Moderate
Barangay 1 Low 5.17 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
(Pob.)
Barangay 2 Low 14.05 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
(Pob.)
Barangay 3 Low 5.67 2.02 65 260 20.31% High
(Pob.)
Barangay 4 Low 3.49 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
(Pob.)
Bolo Moderate 0.51 0.51 81 324 32.56% High
Buenavista Moderate 1.66 0.76 73 292 19.36% High
Burgos High 1.01 0.94 95 380 26.35% High
Butanyog Moderate 5.83 0.35 104 416 19.66% High
Cambuga Moderate 17.2 0.50 19 76 1.98% Moderate
Canuyep High 6.14 0.77 128 512 25.96% High
F. Nañadiego High 8.02 3.78 313 1252 59.93% High
Ibabang Yuni Moderate 5.49 0.00 1 4 0.19% Moderate
Ilayang Yuni Moderate 15.15 0.00 1 4 0.10% Moderate
Latangan Moderate 2.14 0.11 21 84 5.49% Moderate
Mabini Moderate 1.53 0.17 33 132 8.47% Moderate
Magsaysay High 0.28 0.73 145 580 46.85% High
Matataja Moderate 5.9 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Pakiing Moderate 9.58 0.15 72 288 8.21% Moderate
Patabog Moderate 17.65 0.21 11 44 1.24% Moderate
Sagongon High 0.09 0.33 66 264 56.90% High
San Isidro High 4.54 2.24 128 512 37.10% High
San Pedro Moderate 1.65 0.13 34 136 15.04% High
Santa Rosa Moderate 18.32 0.05 10 40 1.01% Moderate
Storm Surge
The 10 coastal barangay have populations that are exposed to storm surge: Ajos (Sto.
Niño), Poblacions, Butanyog, Canuyep, Ibabang Yuni, Patabog and Santa Rosa. Based on
barangay consultations, the likelihood of occurrence of storm surge is likely and possible
in these barangays.

The residential areas exposed to storm surge amount to 30.05 hectares, with estimated
number of potentially affected people is 6,956, which is roughly 12.87 percent of the
municipal population.
Considering all indicators from exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, population
risk against storm surge is categorized into four (4): very high, high, moderate, and low.
Very high-risk areas are in barangays Barangay 1 (Pob.), Barangay 2 (Pob.), Patabog and
Santa Rosa while high risk areas are barangays Ajos (Sto. Niño), Barangay 4 (Pob.),
Butanyog, Canuyep and Ibabang Yuni. The rest of the barangays are only low to no risk to
storm surge.
Overall, the barangays in Mulanay, Quezon are at low to high risk of storm surges. This is
due to a combination of factors, including the barangays' location on the coast, the
presence of low-lying land, and the frequency of typhoons. The local government should
take its steps to mitigate the risk of storm surges, such as by building seawalls and
educating residents about storm surge safety.
Table 13. Population Exposure and Risk to Storm Surge in Mulanay, Quezon
No. of
Storm Surge Residential Exposed No. of HH Exposure Risk
Barangay People
Susceptibility Area (ha) Area (ha) Exposed Percentage Category
Exposed
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Moderate to 9.04 0.54 51 204 10.38%
High
High
Amuguis Low 0.56 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Anonang Low 2.07 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Bagong Silang Low 0.23 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Bagupaye Low 12.58 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Barangay 1 Moderate to 5.17 5.17 336 1344 88.77%
Very High
(Pob.) High
Very High
(Pob.) High
Barangay 3 Low 5.67 0.05 4 16 1.25%
Low
(Pob.)
High
(Pob.) High
Bolo Low 0.51 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Buenavista Low 1.66 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Burgos Low 1.01 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Butanyog Moderate to 5.83 0.35 45 180 8.51%
High
High
Cambuga Low 17.2 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Canuyep Moderate to 6.14 0.79 31 124 6.29%
High
High
F. Nañadiego Low 8.02 0.12 4 16 0.77% Low
Ibabang Yuni Moderate to 5.49 0.29 94 376 18.13%
High
High
Ilayang Yuni Low 15.15 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Latangan Low 2.14 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Mabini Low 1.53 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Magsaysay Low 0.28 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Matataja Low 5.9 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Pakiing Low 9.58 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Patabog Moderate to 17.65 8.36 313 1252 35.22%
Very High
High
Sagongon Low 0.09 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
San Isidro Low 4.54 0.00 6 24 1.74% Low
San Pedro Low 1.65 0.00 0 0 0.00% Low
Santa Rosa Moderate to 18.32 3.11 242 968 24.53%
Very High
High

Decision Areas and Policy Interventions
Table 14. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Population Exposure to Hazards
Hazard Decision Area Technical Findings Implications Policy Interventions
Flood Ajos (Sto. Niño) ● These barangays are located at low ● The possible casualties in 1. Installation of high-capacity box
Amuguis lying areas, coastal areas and near population can be expected to culverts to improve drainage of water
the river system happen to the vulnerable 2. Enforcement of zoning
Bagupaye
● The informal settlers at risk to individuals located near the ordinance/eminent domain for
Barangay 1 (Pob.) flooding range from 1 to 7 percent coastal areas and river system. regulation of development or to make
Barangay 2 (Pob.) of the population of the barangays ● The vulnerability and way for big projects
Barangay 4 (Pob.) ● The estimated percentages of sensitivity of these barangays 3. Conduct feasibility, and/or geologic
Bolo households living in dwelling units are affected by poverty studies on specific areas suitable for
Burgos made from light and makeshift indicators such as the drainage
materials are at 10 to 100 percent, percentage of informal 4. Conduct studies/assessment on the
Butanyog with Pagsangahan having the settlers, percentage of elevation of the municipality as a
Cambuga highest portion household living in dwelling factor of flood risk
Canuyep ● The average percentage of young units made from makeshift 5. Consistent/Continuous turnover of
F. Nañadiego and old dependents is 33.46 percent materials, and percentage of project plan and implementation
Ibabang Yuni ● The highest percentage of exposed households living below the (political term)
households below poverty poverty threshold. The low 6. Establishment of catchment or
Latangan
threshold is 70-100 percent which access to financial assistance impounding facility of rainwater
Matataja is in Barangay 4 (Pob.), Ibabang decreases the adaptive which can be used for irrigation and
Patabog Yuni, Ilayang Yuni, Pakiing and capacity. aquaculture
Santa Rosa Santa Rosa 7. Strengthen the existing efforts of the
● The likelihood of occurrence score LGU towards livelihood programs and
of these barangays is 4 or “Likely” social development projects
● Affected population of all decision 8. Design and implement appropriate
areas has access to financial early warning system and other non-
assistance structural mitigation measures like
● Most of the decision areas has no mangrove reforestation
access to infrastructure-related 9. Encourage and design suitable
mitigation measures and are no financial assistance for the vulnerable
capable to retrofit or relocate individuals
Landslide Amuguis ● Most of these barangays are at ● Half of the households at 1. Identify possible relocation site for
Anonang moderate to very high risk to moderate risk are hesitant on high-risk households
landslide relocating or retrofitting 2. Conduct of geologic study over the
Bagong Silang
● The likelihood of occurrence of ● Mitigation efforts should be areas
Burgos these barangays is either 1 (rare) or more structural or physical to

Canuyep 3 (possible), however, barangay protect the residential areas 3. Installation of coconets and
F. Nañadiego representatives claimed that from the hazard revegetation in landslide prone areas
landslides are common in steep to improve slope stability
Magsaysay
slope parts of their community 4. Relocation and No build zone
Sagongon ● The estimated average percentage 5. Intensive study and continue
San Isidro of households made from light preventive measures
materials is at 3-8 percent 6. The existing housing projects should
● The estimated average percentage come with livelihood programs
of exposed households below effective for the relocation areas
poverty threshold is at 46.45 7. Design financial assistance for
percent retrofitting residential areas and
● Young and old dependents are from implement housing design
2.26 to 25.79 percent of the reconsiderations
population 8. Increase structural investments for
infrastructure-related mitigation
measures such as riprap to protect the
residential areas at moderate risk
Storm Surge All residential areas ● These barangays are located at low ● Similar to implications in 1. Improvement of existing early
located near the lying areas and coastal community flooding, the possible warning systems
coastline ● There are 29 households made from casualties in population can be 2. Improve information dissemination on
light materials expected to happen to the designated evacuation routes and
● The estimated average percentage vulnerable individuals located centers
of affected young and old near the coastal areas and 3. Relocation of informal settler families
dependents is 9.33 percent river system. Moreover, the along the coastal areas
● The estimated average percentage vulnerability and sensitivity of 4. Breakwater/seawall
of households living below the these barangays are affected 5. Upgrade and maintenance of
poverty threshold is 34.60 percent by poverty related indicators. evacuation center with appropriate
● Most of the decision areas have no ● More than half of the equipment
access to infrastructure-related population at moderate risk 6. Strengthen the existing efforts of the
mitigation measures are positive towards LGU towards livelihood programs and
relocating and retrofitting. social development projects
7. Design and implement appropriate
early warning system and other non-
structural mitigation measures like
mangrove reforestation

8. Encourage and design suitable

financial assistance for the vulnerable
individuals

Map 9. Flood Exposure Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 10. Flood Risk Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 11. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 12. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 13. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 14. Storm Surge Risk Map of Population in Mulanay, Quezon

2. Urban Use Areas
To estimate the vulnerability and risk of urban use exposure unit, the existing land use
map of urban land uses were used. The land use classification of identified urban use areas
are residential, commercial, institutional, cemetery, sports and recreation, and utilities.
Three identified hazards affect the urban use areas: flood, landslide, and storm surge. Area
measurements were collected using GIS software and information on the potential cost of
damages to structures built were gathered from the Municipal Engineer’s Office. The total
area of all built-up areas in the municipality is 462.03 hectares. This makes up about more
than one percent (1.50 percent to be specific) of the total land area of Mulanay. The
replacement cost of exposed urban use areas is also considered, with the estimates given
by the Municipal Assessor’s Office.
Other than the hazard and exposure indicators, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
indicators were also used to estimate the level of vulnerability per barangay. Sensitivity
indicators include (1) percentage of building walls with light to salvageable materials, (2)
percentage of buildings in dilapidated/ condemned condition, (3) percentage of buildings
constructed before 1992, and (4) percentage of structures not employing resilient
building design. For adaptive capacity, the indicators were: (1) with access to
infrastructure-related mitigation measures, (2) local awareness, (3) capacity and
willingness to retrofit or relocate, (4) insurance coverage, (5) government investments,
(6) available alternative sites/structures, and (7) government regulations on hazard
mitigation zoning and structural design standards.
Flood
The flood exposure map (Map 15) shows that all lowland barangays with urban use areas
are susceptible to flooding. Areas with high susceptibility include mostly of commercial
and residential areas are in barangays Barangay 1 (Pob.), Barangay 2 (Pob.), Patabog,
Santa Rosa, Canuyep and Ajos (Sto. Niño).
There are 227.75 hectares of urban use areas that are exposed to the impacts of flooding.
The next table shows the measurement of each urban use area per level of susceptibility.
Exposure to flood of urban areas is usual as most are near coastal areas or inland waters.
From the total 227.75 hectares of exposed area, areas situated in high susceptible areas
The estimated total cost of potential damage is approximately Php 8,220,847,500 for
residential, Php 657,731,000 for Commercial and Php 2,352,156,200 for Institutional
Areas which is mostly school facilities.
The table shows a significant amount of land in the barangays is exposed to flooding. This
poses a risk to the safety and property of residents. The local government must take steps
to mitigate the risk of flooding, such as by building drainage systems and educating
residents about flood safety.
Table 15. Flood Susceptibility and Risk of Urban Use Areas

Total Land Exposed Affected Value
Exposure Risk
Barangay Susceptibility Allocation Area (Php)
Percentage Category
(ha) (ha)
Residential Areas 173.71 54.81 8,220,847,500 22.50%
Ajos (Sto. Niño) High 9.04 1.86 279,170,700 20.59% Very High
Amuguis Moderate 0.56 0.09 12,917,100 15.38% High
Anonang Low 2.07 0.00 0 0.00% Low
Bagong Silang Low 0.23 0.00 0 0.00% Low


Exposure Risk
Percentage Category
(ha) (ha)
Bagupaye High 12.58 3.42 513,170,850 27.20% Very High
Barangay 1 (Pob.) High 5.17 5.16 774,480,900 99.87% Very High
Barangay 2 (Pob.) High 14.05 11.82 1,773,239,400 84.14% Very High
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 5.67 0.81 120,790,200 14.20% Moderate
Bolo Moderate 0.51 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Buenavista Low 1.66 0.00 0 0.00% Low
Burgos Low 1.01 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Butanyog High 5.83 0.88 132,606,300 15.16% Very High
Cambuga Moderate 17.20 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Canuyep High 4.30 2.81 421,500,000 65.35% Very High
F. Nañadiego High 8.02 1.07 160,024,050 13.30% Very High
Ibabang Yuni High 5.49 2.48 372,120,000 45.19% Very High
Ilayang Yuni Low 15.15 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Latangan High 2.14 0.85 128,034,000 39.89% Very High
Mabini Low 1.53 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Magsaysay Low 0.28 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Matataja High 5.90 1.07 160,557,450 18.14% Very High
Pakiing Low 9.58 0.43 63,843,600 4.44% Moderate
Patabog High 17.65 9.85 1,477,071,750 55.79% Very High
Sagongon Low 0.09 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
San Isidro Low 4.54 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
San Pedro Low 1.65 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Santa Rosa High 18.32 10.28 1,541,629,650 56.10% Very High
Commercial Areas 7.86 3.29 657,731,000 15.02%
Ajos (Sto. Niño) High 0.21 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Amuguis Moderate 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Anonang Low 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Low
Bagupaye High 0.19 0.06 11,046,400 29.07% High
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 0.84 0.06 11,790,400 7.02% Low
Barangay 4 (Pob.) Moderate 0.44 0.14 28,960,600 32.91% High
Burgos Low 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Low
Butanyog High 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Canuyep High 0.07 0.03 5,331,800 38.08% High
F. Nañadiego High 0.14 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Ibabang Yuni High 0.15 0.02 4,018,000 13.39% High
Latangan High 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Matataja High 0.04 0.01 2,377,800 29.72% High
Patabog High 0.03 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Santa Rosa High 1.20 0.80 159,555,400 66.48% High
Institutional Areas 46.18 11.76 2,352,156,200 17.87%
Ajos (Sto. Niño) High 2.12 1.08 216,283,400 51.01% Very High
Anonang Low 0.77 0.00 0 0.00% Low


Exposure Risk
Percentage Category
(ha) (ha)
Bagupaye High 5.76 0.83 165,609,200 14.38% High
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 0.44 0.00 0 0.00% Low
Burgos Low 1.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Butanyog High 0.86 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Canuyep High 1.17 0.00 88,800 0.04% High
F. Nañadiego High 1.46 0.02 4,471,800 1.53% High
Ibabang Yuni High 0.73 0.04 8,765,000 6.00% High
Latangan High 1.44 0.34 68,725,000 23.86% High
Matataja High 1.06 0.00 708,800 0.33% High
Patabog High 1.67 1.57 314,086,600 94.04% Very High
Santa Rosa High 9.33 4.69 938,901,200 50.32% Very High
Landslide
All 28 barangays have urban areas exposed to landslides with low, moderate, and high
susceptibility. The total exposed area is 15.68 hectares which are highly susceptible to
landslides. The estimated replacement cost of exposed urban use areas is Php
2,545,292,300.
Residential areas have the highest exposed area of 11.82 hectares, followed by
institutional areas with 3.48 hectares. Small portion of the commercial areas totaled up
to 0.38 hectares are only built-up on this hazard. Most commercial areas are in the low
susceptible zone.
The only urban barangay, Poblacion, is at low to moderate risk to landslides. Very high-
risk areas of 14.38 hectares of the total at-risk urban areas are located in barangays
Amuguis, Anonang, Bagong Silang, Barangay 3 (Pob.), Bolo, Buenavista, Canuyep, F.
Nañadiego, and San Isidro. Approximately 1.29 hectares are moderate at-risk in the
remaining barangays. Similar to flood risk, residential areas have the largest area of at-
risk urban use areas against landslides. The high vulnerability and risk of these urban
areas are primarily caused by the high sensitivity, although likelihood of occurrence of
landslides is not very often except for barangays Amuguis, Anonang, Bagong Silang,
Burgos, Canuyep, F. Nañadiego, Magsaysay, Sagongon and San Isidro.

Table 16. Landslide Susceptibility and Risk of Urban Use Areas

Total Land Exposed
Affected Value Exposure Risk
Barangay Susceptibility Allocation Area
(Php) Percentage Category
(ha) (ha)
Residential Areas 173.71 11.82 1,773,708,300 14.45%
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Moderate 9.04 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Amuguis High 0.56 0.13 20,077,050 23.90% High
Anonang High 2.07 0.45 67,935,150 21.88% High
Bagong Silang High 0.23 0.10 15,000,000 43.48% High
Bagupaye Moderate 12.58 0.20 30,000,000 1.59% Moderate
Bolo Moderate 0.51 0.51 77,148,600 100.85% High
Buenavista Moderate 1.66 0.76 114,316,800 45.91% High
Burgos High 1.01 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Butanyog Moderate 5.83 0.35 51,889,950 5.93% Moderate
Ibabang Yuni Moderate 5.49 0.03 4,343,400 0.53% Moderate
Ilayang Yuni Moderate 15.15 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Latangan Moderate 2.14 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Mabini Moderate 1.53 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Magsaysay High 0.28 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Matataja Moderate 5.90 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Pakiing Moderate 9.58 0.15 21,973,950 1.53% Moderate
Patabog Moderate 17.65 0.21 30,934,950 1.17% Moderate
Sagongon High 0.09 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
San Isidro High 4.54 2.24 335,498,100 49.27% High
San Pedro Moderate 1.65 0.13 19,716,150 7.97% Moderate
Santa Rosa Moderate 18.32 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Commercial Areas 7.86 0.38 75,636,400 6.88%
Amuguis High 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Anonang High 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Bagong Silang Moderate 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Bagupaye Moderate 0.19 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 0.84 0.01 2,373,400 1.41% Low
Buenavista Moderate 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Butanyog Moderate 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Canuyep High 0.07 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Ibabang Yuni Moderate 0.15 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Pakiing Moderate 0.48 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Patabog Moderate 0.03 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate

Total Land Exposed

(ha) (ha)
San Pedro Moderate 0.00 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Institutional Areas 46.18 3.48 695,947,600 18.42%
Anonang High 0.77 0.29 58,887,200 38.24% High
Bagong Silang Moderate 0.04 0.04 8,119,000 101.49% High
Bagupaye Moderate 5.76 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 0.44 0.05 9,758,400 11.09% Moderate
Bolo Moderate 0.83 0.16 31,230,600 18.81% Moderate
Buenavista Moderate 0.67 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Butanyog Moderate 0.86 0.03 5,052,200 2.94% Moderate
Ibabang Yuni Moderate 0.73 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Pakiing Moderate 3.07 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Patabog Moderate 1.67 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
San Pedro Moderate 0.83 0.00 0 0.00% Moderate
Storm Surge
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Table 17. Storm Surge Susceptibility and Risk of Urban Use Areas
Total Land Exposed
(ha) (ha)
Residential Areas
Ajos (Sto. Niño)
Amuguis
Anonang
Bagong Silang
Bagupaye
Barangay 1 (Pob.)
Barangay 2 (Pob.)
Barangay 3 (Pob.)
Barangay 4 (Pob.)
Bolo
Buenavista
Burgos
Butanyog
Cambuga
Canuyep
F. Nañadiego

Total Land Exposed

(ha) (ha)
Ibabang Yuni
Ilayang Yuni
Latangan
Mabini
Magsaysay
Matataja
Pakiing
Patabog
Sagongon
San Isidro
San Pedro
Santa Rosa
Commercial Areas
Ajos (Sto. Niño)
Amuguis
Anonang
Bagong Silang
Bagupaye
Barangay 1 (Pob.)
Barangay 2 (Pob.)
Barangay 3 (Pob.)
Barangay 4 (Pob.)
Bolo
Buenavista
Burgos
Butanyog
Cambuga
Canuyep
F. Nañadiego
Ibabang Yuni
Ilayang Yuni
Latangan
Mabini
Magsaysay
Matataja
Pakiing
Patabog
Sagongon
San Isidro
San Pedro
Santa Rosa
Institutional Areas
Ajos (Sto. Niño)
Amuguis
Anonang
Bagong Silang
Bagupaye
Barangay 1 (Pob.)
Barangay 2 (Pob.)
Barangay 3 (Pob.)
Barangay 4 (Pob.)
Bolo
Buenavista
Burgos
Butanyog
Cambuga
Canuyep
F. Nañadiego

Total Land Exposed

(ha) (ha)
Ibabang Yuni
Ilayang Yuni
Latangan
Mabini
Magsaysay
Matataja
Pakiing
Patabog
Sagongon
San Isidro
San Pedro
Santa Rosa

Table 18. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Urban Use Areas
Flood Residential: • These are areas that are • Structural damage can be 1. Installation of high-capacity box culverts to
Ajos (Sto. Niño) at high to very high risk expected to happen to improve drainage of water
to flooding houses are not repaired in 2. Enforcement of zoning ordinance/eminent
Amuguis
• About 20 percent of preparation for heavy domain for regulation of development or to make
Bagupaye buildings in these areas rainfall, especially for way for big projects
Barangay 1 (Pob.) were built before 1992. structures built before 3. Conduct feasibility, and/or geologic studies on
Barangay 2 (Pob.) • The estimated average 1992. specific areas suitable for drainage
Barangay 4 (Pob.) percentage of structures • Identification of additional 4. Conduct studies/assessment on the elevation of
Bolo or houses that are made residential areas for the municipality as a factor of flood risk
from light to salvageable informal settlers is 5. Consistent/Continuous turnover of project plan
Burgos and implementation (political term)
materials is 20-30 needed.
Butanyog percent 6. Establishment of catchment or impounding
Cambuga • The estimated average facility of rainwater which can be used for
Canuyep percentage of structures irrigation and aquaculture
F. Nañadiego in dilapidated or 7. Strengthen the existing efforts of the LGU towards
condemned condition is livelihood programs and social development
Ibabang Yuni
20 percent projects
Latangan 8. Design and implement appropriate early warning
• Around 50 percent of
Matataja structures in these system and other non-structural mitigation
Patabog barangays are not measures like mangrove reforestation
Santa Rosa employing resilient 9. Encourage and design suitable financial
building design assistance for the vulnerable individuals
Commercial: • All structures in these
barangays do not have
Poblacion, Santa property insurance.
Rosa, Patabog • These areas have no
access to infrastructure
related mitigation
measures

Landslide Residential: ● These are areas within the ● Potential deaths and injuries 1. Identify possible relocation site for high-risk
Amuguis moderate to high may occur due to lack of households
susceptible landslide areas. available alternative sites. 2. Conduct of geologic study over the areas
Anonang
● About 20 percent of houses ● Significant government 3. Installation of coconets and revegetation in
Bagong Silang landslide prone areas to improve slope stability
and institutional structures resources will be allocated for
Burgos were built before 1992. rescue and relief operations. 4. Relocation and No build zone
Canuyep ● The estimated average ● Lack of insurance of buildings 5. Intensive study and continue preventive
F. Nañadiego percentage of structures or in residential areas may measures
Magsaysay houses that are made from result to increased repair 6. The existing housing projects should come with
light to salvageable costs and maintenance for livelihood programs effective for the relocation
Sagongon areas
materials is from 20-30 affected structures.
San Isidro 7. Design financial assistance for retrofitting
percent.
● The estimated average residential areas and implement housing design
Institutional: percentage of structures in reconsiderations
Amuguis dilapidated or condemned 8. Increase structural investments for
condition is 20 percent. infrastructure-related mitigation measures such
Anonang
as riprap to protect the residential areas at
Bagong Silang ● Approximately 50 percent
moderate risk
Burgos of structures are not
employing resilient building
Canuyep design
F. Nañadiego ● All houses are estimated to
Magsaysay have no property insurance.
Sagongon
San Isidro

Storm Surge Residential: ● Around 20 - 30 percent of ● Significant loss of lives and 1. Seawall/breakwater
All residential areas the urban use areas are livelihoods is expected. 2. Structural integrity reassessment and
made from light materials ● Lack of insurance for improvement of evacuation center
located near the
● On average, 20 percent of residential and commercial 3. Properly monitor new buildings that are being
coastline building might result to built and make sure that it is following the
the structures have been
constructed before 1992. financial instability and designated design for safety and resilient building
Commercial: ● 50 percent of Institutional increased cost for repair and design.
Poblacion and residential buildings maintenance of affected 4. Improvement of existing early warning systems
are not employing resilient infrastructure. 5. Improve information dissemination on
building design. designated evacuation routes and centers
Institutional: 6. Breakwater/seawall
7. Strengthen the existing efforts of the LGU towards
Ajos, Poblacion,
livelihood programs and social development
Patabog projects
8. Design and implement appropriate early warning
system and other non-structural mitigation
measures like mangrove reforestation
9. Encourage and design suitable financial
assistance for the vulnerable individuals

Map 15. Flood Exposure Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 16. Flood Risk Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 17. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 18. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 19. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 20. Storm Surge Risk Map of Urban Use Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

3. Natural Resource-Based Production Areas
Natural Resource-based Production Areas (NRbPA) in CDRA refers to areas “utilized for
crop, fisheries, and forest related production” (DHSUD Supplemental Guidelines, 2015).
The dominant crops produced in barangays were used to estimate the potential value of
exposed areas. Existing land use map for agricultural areas was used to process the
information regarding the location of production. Representatives were consulted to
identify dominant crops in their barangays.
Production areas considered in the risk assessment are mixed agricultural area, irrigated
rice land, and rainfed rice land. The dominant crops are identified as coconut, corn,
banana, and rice. Agricultural land use in the municipality is 24,045.28 hectares wide.
Relative to the entire municipal boundary, this is 78.15 percent of the total land uses.
Various indicators for sensitivity and adaptive capacity were used to assess the
vulnerability of the production areas. The sensitivity indicators used were: (1) presence
of irrigation facilities in the affected areas, (2) presence of water impounding facilities,
and (3) employment of sustainable production techniques. For adaptive capacity: (1)
affected areas covered or protected by hazard mitigation measures/structures, (2) access
to post-disaster economic protection, (3) access to information, (4) government
extension programs related to climate change adaptation and mitigation-disaster risk
reduction (CCAM-DRR), and (5) government infrastructure projects related to CCAM-
DRR.
Flood
The total area susceptible to the hazard is 853.21 hectares. Seventeen (17) barangays
including Ajos (Sto. Niño), Amuguis, Bagupaye, Barangay 1 (Pob.), Barangay 2 (Pob.),
Barangay 4 (Pob.), Bolo, Burgos, Butanyog, Cambuga, Canuyep, F. Nañadiego, Ibabang
Yuni, Latangan, Matataja, Patabog and Santa Rosa has production areas measuring up to
641.83 hectares that are moderately to highly susceptible to flood.
In terms of production areas, mixed agricultural areas like Coconut, Banana, Corn, Other
Crops have a total of 650.73 hectares or about 76.27 percent of the total flood exposed
agricultural area. Rice land including Lowland/Upland Rice, and vegetables that are
susceptible to floods amounted to 202.49 hectares. Highly susceptible production areas
are irrigated Ajos (Sto. Niño), Bagupaye, Bolo, Cambuga, Canuyep, F. Nañadiego, Ibabang
Yuni, Latangan, Matataja, and Santa Rosa, and mixed agricultural areas in Barangay of Ajos
(Sto. Niño), Amuguis, Bagong Silang, Bagupaye, Bolo, Butanyog, Cambuga, Canuyep, F.
Nañadiego, Ibabang Yuni, Latangan, Matataja, Patabog and Santa Rosa.
Flood risk of the natural resource-based production areas are classified into four (4) risk
levels: low, moderate, high, and very high. Two (2) barangays have production areas at
very high risk consisting of barangays Ajos (Sto. Niño) and Canuyep. These barangays
have production areas that occupy 61.51 hectares, which is 7.2 percent of the total at-risk
to flood production areas. There are 318.62 hectares (37.34 percent) of production areas
that are highly at risk to the hazard while moderately at-risk areas have a total of 464.18
hectares (54.40 percent).

Table 19. Flood Susceptibility and Risk of Natural Resource-Based Production Areas
Total
Exposed
Land Affected Value Exposure Risk
Barangay Susceptibility Area
Allocation (Php) Percentage Category
(ha)
(ha)
Agricultural Mixed 16,601.00 650.73 88,498,801.69 4.39%
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Moderate to 369.53 42.43 5,770,561.19 11.48% High
High
Amuguis Moderate to 281.29 13.21 1,796,219.73 4.70% Moderate
High
Anonang Low 492.73 - - 0.00% Low
Bagong Silang Low 188.73 8.65 1,176,789.50 4.58% Low
Bagupaye Moderate to 727.34 56.48 7,681,098.17 7.77% Moderate
High
Barangay 1 (Pob.) Moderate to 0.00 - - 0.00% Moderate
High
High
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 0.08 - - 0.00% Low
High
Bolo Moderate to 1,142.72 18.24 2,480,381.46 1.60% Moderate
High
Buenavista Low 749.60 - - 0.00% Low
Burgos Moderate to 1,073.94 - - 0.00% Moderate
High
Butanyog Moderate to 170.51 3.11 422,782.79 1.82% Moderate
High
Cambuga Moderate to 1,096.99 39.86 5,421,456.26 3.63% Moderate
High
Canuyep Moderate to 642.99 62.03 8,436,419.05 9.65% Moderate
High
F. Nañadiego Moderate to 215.68 61.54 8,370,078.79 28.54% High
High
Ibabang Yuni Moderate to 946.92 90.74 12,340,142.38 9.58% Moderate
High
Ilayang Yuni Low 1,294.24 - - 0.00% Low
Latangan Moderate to 524.13 85.12 11,576,869.98 16.24% High
High
Mabini Low 688.21 - - 0.00% Low
Magsaysay Low 1,249.72 - - 0.00% Low
Matataja Moderate to 460.20 26.88 3,655,773.98 5.84% Moderate
High
Pakiing Low 1,089.70 - - 0.00% Low
Patabog Moderate to 844.83 82.51 11,220,893.79 9.77% Moderate
High
Sagongon Low 243.01 - - 0.00% Low
San Isidro Low 824.90 0.25 33,723.24 0.03% Low
San Pedro Low 514.54 - - 0.00% Low
Santa Rosa Moderate to 768.46 59.67 8,115,611.37 7.77% Moderate
High
Riceland 1,423.04 202.49 29,360,522.06 13.51%
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Moderate to 4.47 2.58 374,784.55 57.82% Very high
High
Amuguis Moderate to 0.05 - - 0.00% Moderate
High
Anonang Low 54.57 - - 0.00% Low
Bagong Silang Low 0.37 0.37 53,589.97 99.89% Moderate
Bagupaye Moderate to 92.88 17.30 2,507,821.26 18.62% High
High
High
High
High
Bolo Moderate to 58.68 3.18 460,901.21 5.42% Moderate
High
Buenavista Low 7.21 - - 0.00% Low

Total
Exposed
(ha)
(ha)
Burgos Moderate to 50.36 - - 0.00% Moderate
High
Butanyog Moderate to 0.12 - - 0.00% Moderate
High
Cambuga Moderate to 114.49 7.80 1,130,889.80 6.81% Moderate
High
Canuyep Moderate to 78.76 58.92 8,543,627.80 74.81% Very high
High
F. Nañadiego Moderate to 115.76 16.43 2,382,648.99 14.19% High
High
Ibabang Yuni Moderate to 178.01 31.50 4,567,863.08 17.70% High
High
Ilayang Yuni Low 132.17 - - 0.00% Low
Latangan Moderate to 39.11 11.48 1,664,699.62 29.35% High
High
Mabini Low 25.14 - - 0.00% Low
Magsaysay Low 75.17 - - 0.00% Low
Matataja Moderate to 158.18 28.29 4,102,635.22 17.89% High
High
Pakiing Low 91.65 - - 0.00% Low
Patabog Moderate to 59.71 0.11 15,964.79 0.18% Moderate
High
Sagongon Low 0.48 - - 0.00% Low
San Isidro Low 1.65 - - 0.00% Low
San Pedro Low 15.05 - - 0.00% Low
Santa Rosa Moderate to 69.00 24.52 3,555,095.79 35.53% High
High
Landslide
The whole agricultural lands in all barangays of Mulanay are exposed to landslides which
just varies in the levels of susceptibility – low, moderate, and high. Production areas in
moderately susceptible areas is about 2,468.73 hectares and the highly susceptible areas
has the largest exposed area comprising of 3,495.31 hectares (58.61 percent) of the total
production areas exposed to landslide.
Risk against landslides of the production areas range from low to high risk. Eighteen (18)
barangays are identified to have high-risk areas including upland barangays of
Magsaysay, Burgos, Anonang, Canuyep, Pakiing, San Isidro, Santa Rosa, Bagong Silang and
Buenavista. The production areas in these barangays occupy 4,471.91 hectares while
moderate risk areas occupy 1,485.95 hectares.
With regards to the classification of the production areas, at-risk mixed agricultural lands
like Coconut, Banana, Corn, Other Crops cover a total of 5,890.04 hectares. Approximately
74.08 hectares of production areas are upland rice land that are at risk to landslides like
the barangays of Anonang, Bolo, Burgos, F. Nañadiego, Magsaysay, Pakiing and Patabog.

Table 28. Landslide Susceptibility and Risk of Natural Resource-Based Production Areas
Total
Exposed
(ha)
(ha)
Agricultural Mixed 16,601.00 5,890.04 801,044,948.90 36.86%
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Moderate 369.53 168.55 22,922,581.72 45.61% High
Amuguis High 281.29 119.69 16,277,197.13 42.55% High
Anonang High 492.73 395.66 53,809,852.21 80.30% High
Bagong Silang High 188.73 171.53 23,328,607.14 90.89% High
Bagupaye Moderate 727.34 212.53 28,903,535.46 29.22% Moderate
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 0.08 0.08 10,542.18 99.63% High
Bolo Moderate 1,142.72 215.21 29,268,295.89 18.83% Moderate
Buenavista Moderate 749.60 169.38 23,035,317.97 22.60% High
Burgos High 1,073.94 891.03 121,179,412.51 82.97% High
Butanyog Moderate 170.51 73.01 9,929,387.34 42.82% High
Cambuga Moderate 1,096.99 96.83 13,168,209.25 8.83% Moderate
Canuyep High 642.99 351.27 47,773,026.82 54.63% High
F. Nañadiego High 215.68 106.13 14,433,216.24 49.21% High
Ibabang Yuni Moderate 946.92 280.95 38,209,175.11 29.67% Moderate
Ilayang Yuni Moderate 1,294.24 25.05 3,406,828.42 1.94% Moderate
Latangan Moderate 524.13 123.25 16,762,155.72 23.52% Moderate
Mabini Moderate 688.21 116.99 15,910,030.58 17.00% Moderate
Magsaysay High 1,249.72 924.16 125,685,807.33 73.95% High
Matataja Moderate 460.20 6.26 850,949.28 1.36% Low
Pakiing Moderate 1,089.70 340.26 46,275,412.63 31.23% High
Patabog Moderate 844.83 322.37 43,842,798.72 38.16% Moderate
Sagongon High 243.01 162.75 22,133,994.02 66.97% High
San Isidro High 824.90 316.47 43,039,506.29 38.36% High
San Pedro Moderate 514.54 42.23 5,743,208.06 8.21% Moderate
Santa Rosa Moderate 768.46 258.43 35,145,900.91 33.63% High
Riceland 1,423.04 202.49 29,360,522.06 13.51%
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Moderate 4.47 - - 0.00% Moderate
Amuguis High 0.05 - - 0.00% Moderate
Anonang High 54.57 22.93 3,324,766.63 42.02% High
Bagong Silang High 0.37 - - 0.00% Moderate
Bagupaye Moderate 92.88 0.80 115,483.08 0.86% Moderate
Barangay 3 (Pob.) Low 0.00 - - 0.00% Moderate
Bolo Moderate 58.68 9.80 1,421,035.24 16.70% Moderate
Buenavista Moderate 7.21 1.26 182,574.87 17.46% Moderate
Burgos High 50.36 9.38 1,360,231.37 18.63% Moderate
Butanyog Moderate 0.12 0.11 16,589.02 95.34% High
Cambuga Moderate 114.49 0.43 62,069.43 0.37% Moderate
Canuyep High 78.76 - - 0.00% Moderate
F. Nañadiego High 115.76 15.99 2,318,894.96 13.82% Moderate
Ibabang Yuni Moderate 178.01 0.69 99,977.36 0.39% Moderate
Ilayang Yuni Moderate 132.17 - - 0.00% Low
Latangan Moderate 39.11 - - 0.00% Low
Mabini Moderate 25.14 - - 0.00% Moderate
Magsaysay High 75.17 7.84 1,136,407.20 10.43% Moderate
Matataja Moderate 158.18 - - 0.00% Low
Pakiing Moderate 91.65 1.38 199,988.35 1.50% Moderate
Patabog Moderate 59.71 2.29 331,584.99 3.83% Moderate
Sagongon High 0.48 0.48 70,256.71 100.94% High
San Isidro High 1.65 - - 0.00% Moderate
San Pedro Moderate 15.05 0.70 101,500.00 4.65% Moderate
Santa Rosa Moderate 69.00 - - 0.00% Moderate

Storm Surge
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Table 20. Storm Surge Risk of Natural Resource-Based Production Areas

Total
Exposed
(ha)
(ha)
Agricultural Mixed
Ajos (Sto. Niño)
Amuguis
Anonang
Bagong Silang
Bagupaye
Barangay 1 (Pob.)
Barangay 2 (Pob.)
Barangay 3 (Pob.)
Barangay 4 (Pob.)
Bolo
Buenavista
Burgos
Butanyog
Cambuga
Canuyep
F. Nañadiego
Ibabang Yuni
Ilayang Yuni
Latangan
Mabini
Magsaysay
Matataja
Pakiing
Patabog
Sagongon
San Isidro
San Pedro
Santa Rosa
Riceland
Ajos (Sto. Niño)
Amuguis
Anonang
Bagong Silang
Bagupaye
Barangay 1 (Pob.)
Barangay 2 (Pob.)
Barangay 3 (Pob.)
Barangay 4 (Pob.)
Bolo
Buenavista
Burgos
Butanyog
Cambuga
Canuyep
F. Nañadiego
Ibabang Yuni
Ilayang Yuni
Latangan
Mabini
Magsaysay
Matataja
Pakiing
Patabog
Sagongon
San Isidro
San Pedro
Santa Rosa

Table 21. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Natural Resource-Based Production Areas
Flood Barangay with ● A significant portion of the crop ● Lack of flood control measures 1. Agricultural post-disaster subsidy or
Production are production areas are classified may affect production yields economic protection (RSBA)
as high to very high-risk areas over time 2. Promotion of sustainable production
Highly Exposed to
● Majority of the farming ● There is no alternative techniques
Flooding:
dependent households do not livelihood to accommodate 3. Encourage the use of flood-tolerant rice
Ajos (Sto. Niño) have access to alternative expected affected families varieties
Amuguis livelihood 4. Provision and promotion of alternative
Bagupaye ● Most of the barangays have no livelihood
Barangay 1 (Pob.) access to post-disaster 5. Establishment of a flood control facility
economic protection and hazard 6. Adjustment of planting calendar and
Barangay 2 (Pob.) planting of cash crops as alternative
mitigation measures
Barangay 4 (Pob.) crops
● Flooding reportedly occur
Bolo yearly or every 3 years 7. Provision of trainings, seminars, and
Burgos livelihood projects to farmers
● Production techniques
Butanyog 8. Selection of crops suitable to climate and
employed are not sustainable
land
Cambuga ● Only a few barangays have 9. Partnership or coordination with
Canuyep irrigation facilities and water government agencies for implementing
F. Nañadiego impounding facilities the appropriate agriculture-related
Ibabang Yuni programs and projects
Latangan
Matataja
Patabog
Santa Rosa

Landslide Agricultural Mixed ● Most of the barangays are at ● Damages to crops is expected to 1. Slope protection
(Coconut, Banana, only low to moderate risk to be high due to landslide given 2. Provision of assistance and subsidy
landslide current production techniques 3. Encourage practice of intercropping
Corn, Other Crops):
● Majority of Household are not ● Huge loss of income since 4. Conduct of Assessment/studies on soil
employing sustainable significant portion of the and climate suitability of local crops
production techniques population are dependent on 5. Use of Coconet
Riceland ● Half of the production areas are crop production. 6. Placing of Warning Signages/markings
(Lowland/Upland not covered by insurance ● Damage to crops is expected to (hazard prone/danger areas)
● Only ____________________ have cause both reduced yields and 7. Promotion of sustainable farming
Rice, Vegetables, techniques
irrigation and impounding delayed harvests
Other Crops): 8. Provision of alternative livelihood
facilities
9. Encourage the use of upland rice
● Majority have no access to post-
varieties
disaster economic protection
and hazard mitigation
measures/structures
Storm Surge Agricultural Mixed ● Approximately 108.24 hectares ● Decreased income or loss of 1. Subsidy/assistance
(Coconut, Banana, with high susceptibility to livelihood of agriculture- 2. Encourage the use of climate-resistant
storm surge dependent households varieties of crops
Corn, Other Crops):
● Mostly lowland barangays are ● Lack of storm surge control 3. Extension services for climate sensitive
affected by the Storm Surge measures, may affect crop production
● Poblacion and Barangay Santa production yields over time 4. Provision of alternative livelihood
Riceland Rosa are only barangay with ● Significant portion of the 5. Promotion of sustainable farming
(Lowland/Upland hazard mitigation measure population are dependent on techniques
present crop production. Available 6. Encourage the use of hazard-resistant
Rice, Vegetables, varieties of crops
● Majority have no access to livelihood opportunities are not
Other Crops): 7. Establishment of early warning system
alternative livelihood enough to accommodate
affected families. for crop production
● Most of the farmers do not
practice sustainable production
techniques

Map 21. Flood Exposure Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 22. Flood Risk Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 23. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 24. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 25. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 26. Storm Surge Risk Map of Natural Resource-based Production Areas in Mulanay, Quezon

4. Critical Point Facilities
Critical point facilities are highly crucial as they “provide key [socioeconomic] support
services.” (DHSUD Supplemental Guidelines, 2015). For the purposes of this assessment,
the municipality of Mulanay identified 8 types of facilities as part of critical point facilities:
Child Development Centers, Communication-related Facilities, Educational Facilities like
schools, Evacuation Center, Government Facilities like Barangay Halls, Health Facilities,
Places of Worship, and Fish Port. There are 147 critical point facilities identified. No
facilities have several floors greater than three (3). The geographic location of these
facilities was digitized into points, which were then processed in GIS software to which
facilities are exposed to certain hazards and assess its risk. The hazard maps were
overlaid on critical point facilities and were segregated based on the magnitude of
susceptibility to each hazard. The average construction/replacement cost of each type of
facility were estimated by the Municipal Engineering Office.
Five sensitivity indicators were used: (1) existing condition of the facility, (2) proportion
of the structure in dilapidated/condemned condition, (3) proportion of structure made of
light materials, (4) year the facility was constructed, and (5) whether the facility is
employing resilient building design. Adaptive capacity has six indicators: (1) access or
area coverage to infrastructure-related mitigation measures, (2) capacity and willingness
of the owner or administrator of the structure to retrofit or relocate, (3) insurance
coverage, (4) the capacity of the local government to make investments or implement
interventions for CCAM-DRR, (5) the availability of alternative sites/structures, and (6)
the extent to which government regulations on hazard mitigation zoning and structural
design standards is implemented within barangays.
Flood
There are 147 critical point facilities in Mulanay that are exposed to flooding. These are
located in 10 barangays. Based on anecdotal accounts, flood hazards are only frequent
occurrences on certain facilities in lowland barangays like Barangay 1 (Pob.), Patabog,
Ajos (Sto. Niño) and Latangan. Out of the total number of facilities exposed, 32 facilities
(21.77 percent) are exposed to moderate flood susceptibility.
On the other hand, only seven (7) facilities (4.76 percent) in four barangays are in highly
susceptible areas including: 5 Schools including Elementary and Secondary; 1
Government facilities in Barangay 1 (Pob.), and 1 health center in Barangay Patabog.
Through estimation, the total replacement cost of these highly susceptible facilities can
reach up to Php 876,000,000.
Based on the assessment, out of 147 facilities exposed to flooding, 21 facilities are at very
high risk. These are located in barangays Barangay 1 (Pob.), Barangay 2 (Pob.), Barangay
4 (Pob.), Amuguis, Pakiing, Ajos (Sto. Niño), Anonang, Bagupaye and Pakiing. Of the
facilities at very high risk, all of their location was reported to have a greater likelihood of
flood occurrence compared to the low-risk facilities.

Table 22. Flood Susceptibility and Risk of Critical Point Facilities

Facilities Susceptible to
Total Facilities At-Risk to Flood
Flood
Type of Facility Number of
Facilities Low to Very
High Low Moderate High
Moderate High
Child
Development 46 5 0 41 0 2 3
Center
Communication
7 1 0 28 1 0 0
Facilities
Educational
34 10 5 23 0 7 8
Facilities
Evacuation
5 1 0 28 0 0 1
Centers
Government
32 9 1 23 0 3 6
Facilities
Health Center 23 6 1 21 0 4 3
TOTAL 147 32 7 164 1 16 21
Landslide
A total of _______ facilities are at varying susceptibilities to rain-induced landslide.

Facilities in Mulanay tend to not be built in high sloping areas, so there are only ____
facilities that are highly exposed to RIL. These facilities are:
_____________________________________________________________________. If these facilities are not
relocated or not strengthened through effective mitigation measures, replacement cost of
these _____ facilities is estimated at Php _____________________________________.
The risk category of the exposed facilities range from low to very high risk. Out of the
_______ potentially-affected facilities, there are ____________________ facilities that are at very
high risk to the impacts of landslides. These include CDCs, educational facilities,
government facilities, barangay health station, places of worship, open court, and water-
related facilities which are located in barangays: ______________________________________.

Table 23. Landslide Susceptibility and Risk of Critical Point Facilities

Total Facilities At-Risk to Landslide
Landslide
Moderate High
Child
Development 46
Center
Communication
7
Facilities
Educational
34
Facilities
Evacuation
5
Centers
Government
32
Facilities
Health Center 23
TOTAL 147
Storm Surge
A total of ________ critical point facilities are exposed to storm surge, most of which are
places of worship. These affected facilities can be found in _____ barangays and can cost
the municipality around Php ____________________________ to reconstruct. Based on barangay
KIIs, the occurrence of storm surge is a rare event with around ___ to ____ percent of
probability within 50 years.
The risk categories identified for critical point facilities exposed to storm surge are high,
moderate, and low. There are ____ high risk facilities that are identified in barangays
________________________________. Moderate risk facilities which is slightly higher than the
number of high-risk facilities totaled to ___ facilities and are located in barangays
___________________________.

Table 24. Storm Surge Susceptibility and Risk of Critical Point Facilities
Total Facilities At-Risk to Storm Surge
Storm Surge
Moderate High
Child
Development 46
Center
Communication
7
Facilities
Educational
34
Facilities
Evacuation
5
Centers
Government
32
Facilities
Health Center 23
TOTAL 147

Table 25. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Critical Point Facilities
Flood Poblacion ● All of the critical point facilities of ● Since these facilities are at 1. Invest in application of resilient
Poblacion are at high risk to flooding high risk for flooding but low building design and
Patabog ● The facilities are not employing resilient on alternative structure/site, infrastructure-related mitigation
building design and have no access to the services and activities will measure for the school and
Ajos (Sto. Niño) infrastructure-related mitigation get interrupted during heavy barangay hall.
measures rains. 2. Day care center should subscribe
● The facilities are not covered by to PD 1096 or the National
insurance and there are no alternative Building Code.
sites for relocation 3. Improvement of drainage canals
● Most of the facilities in Poblacion are
constructed before 1992
● Since the municipal hall is newly
established, there are no alternative sites
or structures for it
Landslide Elementary School ● Most Elementary School is in ● In case of sudden and heavy 1. Construction of slope protection
dilapidated/condemned condition while landslide, potential casualties infrastructures
50 percent of it are made of light include students, teachers, and 2. Reforestation of denuded parts of
materials non-teaching personnel the forest or planting of
● The structure is not employing resilient ● Suspension of classes once the vegetation along the higher slope
building design and has no access to structure is damaged with no areas
infrastructure-related mitigation alternative site for resumption 3. Establishment of early warning
measures of classes system and early announcements
● Structure is not covered with insurance ● Disruption of school activities 4. Identification of alternative site
and learning opportunities of or area
students 5. IEC in the school regarding drills
on landslide
Storm Surge Poblacion ● About 50 percent of the barangay hall is ● Significant loss of lives and 1. Construction of
deemed in dilapidated or condemned livelihoods is expected. seawall/breakwater
Patabog condition ● Lack of insurance for the
● Twenty to thirty percent of these facilities might result to 2. Improvement/Reinforcement of
Ajos (Sto. Niño) structures are made from light and financial instability and evacuation center
salvageable materials increased cost for repair and
● None of the decision areas are employing maintenance of affected 3. Structural integrity reassessment
resilient building design infrastructure. of evacuation center

● There are no area coverage to 4. Properly monitor new buildings

infrastructure-related mitigation that are being built and make sure
measures that it is following the designated
● No insurance coverage design for safety and resilient
building design.

Map 27. Flood Exposure Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 28. Flood Risk Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 29. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 30. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 31. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 32. Storm Surge Risk Map of Critical Point Facilities in Mulanay, Quezon

5. Lifeline Utilities
The connectivity of a municipality internally and externally is important for the development
of different sectors. Given this, CDRA determines the Lifeline Utilities of the municipality.
These include the infrastructure for roads, water, power. However, the conducted CDRA only
takes into account the major transportation networks, roads. The assessment of risks to
existing hazards is crucial in determining roads that need critical intervention, as roads are a
key factor in the survival of the population and their general well-being.
The current road network of Mulanay has a total length of 238,623 meters which are
classified into national (43,850 meters), municipal (8,520 meters), and barangay roads
(186,253 meters). Municipal roads are only present in Poblacion. The replacement cost of
exposed roads is also computed through the estimates given by the Municipal Engineer’s
Office that sum-up to Php 198,750,000.
Sensitivity indicators used are (1) surface type, (2) existing condition, (3) year the road was
constructed, and (4) whether these are employing hazard resistant design. On the other hand,
adaptive capacity indicators used are: (1) access/area coverage to infrastructure-related
mitigation measures, (2) capacity and willingness of administration to retrofit, (3) insurance
coverage, (4) capacity of local government to make investments on CCAM-DRR, and (5) the
presence and adherence to government regulations on hazard mitigation zoning and
structural design standards.
Flood
All low land barangays except are exposed to flooding. The total affected length is 15,837.00
meters, approximately 6.63 percent of which are exposed to high susceptibility flooding
which is estimated to cost Php 143,850,000 for renovation/rehabilitation. These highly
affected roads are the national roads in Poblacion Area, the municipal road in Poblacion, and
the barangay road in Ajos (Sto. Niño), Canuyep, F. Nañadiego and Matataja.
Table 26. Flood Susceptibility and Risk of Lifeline Utilities

Road Length Susceptible to
Road Length At-Risk to Flood (m)
Road Total Length Flood (m)
Classification (m) Low to
High Moderate High Very High
Moderate
Barangay Road 70 3,580.00 4,540.00 490.00 7,620.00 500.00
Municipal
33 3,820.00 715.00 282.00 4,253.00 0.00
Road
National Road 4 692.00 0.00 2,000.00 692.00 0.00
TOTAL 107 8,092.00 5,255.00 2,772.00 12,565.00 500.00

Landslide
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Table 27. Landslide Susceptibility and Risk of Lifeline Utilities

Road Length At-Risk to Landslide (m)
Road Total Length Landslide (m)
Moderate
Barangay Road 70
Municipal
33
Road
National Road 4
TOTAL 107
Storm Surge
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Table 28. Storm Surge Susceptibility and Risk of Lifeline Utilities

Road Length At-Risk to Storm Surge (m)
Road Total Length Storm Surge (m)
Moderate
Barangay Road 70
Municipal
33
Road
National Road 4
TOTAL 107

Table 29. Decision Areas and Policy Interventions for Lifeline Utilities
Flood Municipal Road and Farm to ● Roads are at moderate ● Delay in the 1. Reforestation/rehabilitation program
Market Road to very high risk transportation of goods 2. Increase in infrastructure related mitigation
● Most of the barangay and services and measures such as stormwater drainage canals
and national roads are temporary isolation of 3. Strategic establishment of alternate routes
in poor condition communities due to leading to relatively safer areas
● None of the roads are disruption of the access 4. Enhancement of the existing contingency plans
covered by insurance system during floods focusing on the potentially affected communities
● Only a few have access ● The disruption of access
to infrastructure- system may last for 24
related mitigation hours affecting the
measures services in the community
Landslide Farm to Market Road ● Majority of the roads ● Delay in the 1. Diversion road or bridge
have no access to transportation of goods 2. Construction of box culvert
infrastructure-related and services and 3. Increase in infrastructure related mitigation
mitigation measures temporary isolation of measures such as riprap
● Most are not communities due to 4. Strategic establishment of alternate routes
employing disaster- disruption of the access leading to relatively safer areas to avoid
resilient design system during disaster accidents and injuries
● None of the roads are ● Additional cost for the
covered by insurance repair of the damaged
lifeline utility
Storm Surge Municipal Road, Farm to ● About 6.60 percent of ● Delay in the 1. Increase in infrastructure related mitigation
Market Road total road is affected transportation of goods measures such as seawall and breakwater
● The surface type of and services and 2. Strategic establishment of alternate routes
road is gravel and is in temporary isolation of leading to relatively safer areas
fair condition communities due to 3. Enhancement of the existing contingency plans
● Have no access or area disruption of the access focusing on the potentially affected communities
coverage to system during disaster
infrastructure-related ● Additional cost for the
mitigation measures repair of the damaged
● No insurance coverage lifeline utility

Map 33. Flood Exposure Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 34. Flood Risk Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 35. Rain-induced Landslide Exposure Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 36. Rain-induced Landslide Risk Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 37. Storm Surge Exposure Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon

Map 38. Storm Surge Risk Map of Lifeline Utilities in Mulanay, Quezon

D. RISK ANALYSIS
The risk assessment determined the exposure, vulnerability, and risk to hazards of the
five exposure units: Population, Urban Use Areas, Natural Resource-Based Production
Areas, Critical Point Facilities, and Lifeline Utilities. The assessment also provided policy
interventions to prevent or mitigate the risks of each element to different hazards and
increase the resiliency of the community.
The municipality of Mulanay has manageable risks when it comes to geologic hazards.
However, as a coastal municipality, it is exposed to hydrometeorological hazards
particularly flood, rain-induced landslide, and storm surge. As expected, areas that are
situated near the rivers, coast, and the lowland areas are highly susceptible to flooding.
Whereas, hilly and upland barangays like Amuguis, Anonang, Bagong Silang, Burgos,
Canuyep, F. Nañadiego, Magsaysay, Sagongon and San Isidro are more prone to rain-
induced landslide. Communities within the coast and the low adjacent land like barangays
Ajos, Sta. Rosa, Poblacion, Butanyog, Canuyep, Patabog, and Ibabang Yuni were found to
be susceptible to storm surge. Summarized in Table 29 are the decision areas per hazard
and exposure unit which were collected through consultation workshops and ground
validation.
Table 30. Summary of the Decision Areas of the Five Exposure Units per Hazard
Hazard
Exposure Unit
Flood Landslide Storm Surge
Population Ajos (Sto. Niño) Amuguis All residential areas

Amuguis Anonang located near the
Bagupaye Bagong Silang coastline
Barangay 1 (Pob.) Burgos
Barangay 2 (Pob.) Canuyep
Barangay 4 (Pob.) F. Nañadiego
Bolo Magsaysay
Burgos Sagongon
Butanyog San Isidro
Cambuga
Canuyep
F. Nañadiego
Ibabang Yuni
Latangan
Matataja
Patabog
Santa Rosa
Urban Use Areas Residential: Residential: Residential:
Ajos (Sto. Niño) Amuguis All residential areas
Amuguis Anonang located near the
Bagupaye Bagong Silang coastline
Barangay 1 (Pob.) Burgos
Barangay 2 (Pob.) Canuyep Commercial:
Barangay 4 (Pob.) F. Nañadiego Poblacion
Bolo Magsaysay
Burgos Sagongon Institutional:

Hazard
Exposure Unit
Flood Landslide Storm Surge
Butanyog San Isidro

Cambuga
Canuyep Institutional:
F. Nañadiego Pagsangahan (Sitio
Ibabang Yuni Cumbahan –
Latangan Cumbahan
Matataja Elementary School)
Patabog
Santa Rosa
Commercial:
Poblacion, Santa Rosa
Natural Ajos (Sto. Niño) Agricultural Mixed: Agricultural Mixed:
Resource-based Amuguis
Production Bagupaye
Areas Barangay 1 (Pob.) Irrigated Riceland: Irrigated Riceland:
Barangay 2 (Pob.)
Barangay 4 (Pob.)
Bolo Rainfed Riceland:
Burgos
Butanyog
Cambuga
Canuyep
F. Nañadiego
Ibabang Yuni
Latangan
Matataja
Patabog
Santa Rosa
Critical Point Poblacion Elementary School Cawayan I (Barangay

Facilities Hall, Day Care Center,
Health Station)
Lifeline Utilities Municipal Road Farm to Market Road Municipal Road ,

Farm to Market Road
The identification of decision areas and policy interventions aims to analyze and manage
the causal factors of disasters in the municipality through reducing hazard exposure,
decreasing vulnerability, and improving adaptive capacity. From the decision areas listed
above, it will be easier for the local government to know which areas will need deeper
focus for mitigation measures and what approach or policy option will be more suitable
to these areas. Recommended interventions that are applicable per hazard are given
below.
Flood

Risk mitigation through Infrastructure-related mitigation measures:
1. Improvement of drainage systems in all barangays. Drainage canals are to be cleaned

and declogged to prevent destruction of properties prior to the rainy season.
2. Construction of seawall to prevent coastal flooding.
3. Requiring structure-related hazard mitigation design within areas having moderate
to high susceptibility to flood.
4. Riverbank stabilization through construction of river protection structures and strict
implementation of buffer in priority areas.
5. Construction of alternative routes for roads that are often impassable and submerged
with flood water to avoid interruption of flow of services.
Risk mitigation through policy options:
1. Declaring all forestland as forest reserve for priority reforestation, hence, increasing
water capacity and lessen water runoff during heavy rainfall.
2. Designating a protection buffer along rivers. Rivers along the urban area have a 3-
meter buffer, agricultural area has a 20-meter buffer, and 40-meter buffer for areas
located in the forest area. No permanent structures should be allowed to be built
within these areas. Settlements that are already established are highly recommended
to be relocated.
3. Site specific geotechnical studies on elevation and contour of flood-prone areas to
address possible foundation problems.
Landslide
Risk Mitigation through Infrastructure-related mitigation measures:
1. Establishments of coco-net bioengineering materials to control soil erosion and

stabilize slopes subject to standard specifications of DPWH.
2. Identify possible relocation site for high-risk households.
Risk Mitigation through policy options:
1. Efficient implementation of forestland protection buffer with set allowable activities

and no permanent structures to be built.
2. Establishment and reinforcement of No Build Zones particularly in high susceptibility
parts of the barangays and areas where landslide often occur.
3. Monitoring of signs or evidences of ground movement such as tension cracks, tilted
trees, and bulging road sections should be done regularly and recorded to be reported
to local authorities and respective agencies like MGB.
4. Placing of warning signages/markings in hazard-prone or danger areas.
Risk mitigation through ecological-based disaster risk reduction approach:
1. Mulanay Watershed Forest Reserve, along with other protection forests, will be
subject to conservation and restoration.
2. Reforestation of denuded parts of the forest or planting of vegetation along the higher
slope areas.
Storm Surge
Risk Mitigation through policy options:

1. Consistent monitoring and announcements of the status of tropical cyclones and sea
level using innovative and reliable equipment.
2. Formulation and proper execution of Contingency Plan, Evacuation Plan, and Disaster
Risk Reduction and Management Plan. This should include the establishing of the
designated evacuation centers, pick-up points, and evacuation routes and their
signages.
3. Designation of alternative evacuation facilities in each barangay, in case that there are
no constructed evacuation centers yet. The location and structural integrity of the
evacuation centers and alternative facilities should be carefully assessed and
regularly maintained. Necessary equipment and supplies should also be complete.
4. Conduct of drills and IEC for potentially affected areas.
5. Allocating protection buffer for coastline and mangrove areas. A 20-meter buffer
should be established with mangrove areas which are classified as A&D lands while a
40-meter buffer must be provided for those in forest reserve areas.
6. Coordination with higher authorities and private institutions for designing and
implementing effective financial assistance and livelihood opportunities for the
affected residents
Risk mitigation through ecological-based disaster risk reduction approach:
1. Investment in mangrove reforestation initiatives to maintain its function as natural

wave breaker and protection buffer from typhoons and storm surge. Other ecosystem
services of mangroves include coastal erosion prevention, habitat of specific marine
animals, and source of food and livelihood products. Furthermore, this approach will
increase the aesthetic value of coastal areas, thereby, increasing tourism potential.

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Municipality of Mulanay, Province of Quezon

TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................ i

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) i

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) ii

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) iii

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) iv

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) v

Adaptive Capacity – Combination of strengths, attributes, and resources available to an

Climate Change – change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human

Climate Projection – a description of the response of the climate system to emission or

Climate Change Vulnerability – is the Degree to which a system is susceptible to, or

Disaster – a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) vi

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management – the systematic process of using

Earthquake-induced Landslide – a landslide hazard occurred with a Delay in time and

Exposure – refers to the presence of people, property, livelihoods, systems, or other

Ground shaking – the primary cause of earthquake damage to man-made structures

Intensity –measures the strength of shaking produced by the earthquake at a certain

Liquefaction – a phenomenon in which the strength and stiffness of a soil is reduced by

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) vii

Resilience – the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist,

Risk Assessment – a methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by

Risk management – the systematic approach and practice of managing uncertainty to

Spatial Data – information pertaining to a place linked to coordinates or other positional

Vulnerability – the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) viii

1. The Collection of Hazard and Climate Change Information

2. Scoping of Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 1

3. Development of Exposure Database

a. Population Exposure – spatial location (derived from existing residential area

b. Urban Use Areas – built environment currently utilized for residential,

c. Natural Resource-Based Production Areas – areas used for agriculture and

d. Critical Point Facilities – facilities that provided key socio-economic support

e. Lifeline Utilities – covered transportation, water distribution, drainage and

4. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA)

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 2

5. Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA)

Table 1. Score Matrix for the Indicative Likelihood of Occurrence of Hazards

Table 2. Severity of Consequence Score by Likelihood of Occurrence

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 3

Indicative Likelihood of Severity of Consequence Score (EV)

Risk is defined as the combination of the probability (represented as the likelihood of

Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x Severity of Consequence

Table 3. Risk Score and Category Description

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 4

II. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 5

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 6

Mean Minimum Temperature (°C)

Rainfall is the “amount of precipitation (commonly rain or hail) expressed in millimeters

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 7

Annual Total Rainfall (mm)

Figure 2. Annual total amount of rainfall in Mulanay, Quezon from 2012-2019

Annual Mean Relative Humidity (%)

Figure 3. Annual mean relative humidity in Mulanay, Quezon from 2010-2019

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 8

4. Sea Level Rise

CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA) 9