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Luck, Logic, and White Lies
Luck, Logic, and White Lies
The Mathematics of Games, Second
Edition
Jörg Bewersdorff
Translated by David Kramer
Second edition published 2021
by CRC Press
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First published in German under the title Glück, Logik und Bluff; Mathematik im
Spiel – Methoden, Ergebnisse und Grenzen by Jörg Bewersdorff, edition: 7
Copyright © Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, ein Teil von Springer Nature,
2018 * This edition has been translated and published under licence from Springer
Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature. Springer Fachmedien
Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature takes no responsibility and shall not be
made liable for the accuracy of the translation.
Contents
Foreword
Preface
12 A Die Is Tested
49 In Quest of a Measure
Index
Foreword
1. chance;
1 Translator’s note: the German word for player, Spieler, is masculine, and so the
author of this book could easily write the equivalent of “a player…his move”
without too many qualms. Faced with this problem in English, I have decided to
stick primarily with the unmarked masculine pronoun, with an occasional “his or
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
clear, from Cæsar’s narrative, that there must have been no
inconsiderable extent of land under cultivation, and therefore
cleared, at least partially, of forests, probably for the most part
among the Cantii, or men of Kent, whom he calls the “most
polished;”[416] moreover, if Cassivelaunus had only one-tenth of the
“four thousand war chariots” mentioned by Cæsar,[417] he must
have required roads, and well-made roads, too, along which to
manœuvre them; not forgetting also the fact, that the construction
of such chariots implies considerable mechanical skill. Cæsar adds,
that the Britons made use of iron which they obtained from their
maritime districts, a statement confirmed by the existence, till within
a recent period, of numerous furnaces in the Weald of Sussex, for
the extraction of iron from the iron sand of that district.[418] The
extremely barbarous Britons, to whom the popular stories refer, were
no doubt those of the more northern and central districts—Celts,
who had been driven back by the advancing tide of the Belgæ of
Northern France.
The invasion by Cæsar was the result of various
Cæsar’s reasons and mixed circumstances, among which we may
for invading well believe one inducement to have been the
Britain.
desire on his part of making his rule in Gaul pre-
eminently famous by the subjugation, under Roman rule, of an
island about which so many stories were current among his
countrymen. Britain, described in Virgil[419] as “beyond the limits of
the known world,” was supposed to be rich in gold and silver, with
an ocean fertile in pearls;[420] indeed, Suetonius speaks of it as a
popular belief, that it was in quest of pearls that Cæsar crossed the
Channel. But a more probable reason for his proposed attempt is
that alleged by Napoleon III., viz., his having found the natives of
Britain invariably aiding his enemies in his Gallic wars, and especially
in his conflict with the Veneti, during the summer of the year of his
first invasion, b.c. 55.[421] Moreover, intestine divisions[422] had
about that time broken out in England, and hence there was then a
better chance of Roman success than there would have been had
the islanders stood firmly together to resist the invader.
Having resolved then to make the attempt, Cæsar looked about him
to procure information about the unknown island: but here he was
completely foiled; for the Gauls stood too well by their friends and
relations in Britain to volunteer the information they might easily
have given the Roman commander. The Veneti, as might have been
expected, did what they could to thwart him, while the Morini,
dwelling around and to the east of Boulogne, are specially
mentioned as friendly to the Britons.[423] Moreover, Cæsar himself
remarks that no one but merchants ever visited Britain,[424] unless,
indeed, they fled thither for their lives; Britain having been then, as
now, the refuge for continental exiles of all classes. In spite,
however, of these adverse circumstances, increased in some degree
by the lateness of the season, Cæsar judged it best to make the
attempt, hoping, probably, to strike an effective blow before the
petty states in Britain had had time to weld themselves into a
compact body, although, too, he had an almost certain prospect of
an uprising in his rear of the only half-subdued Gauls as soon as his
legions were fully employed in Britain. He therefore, as a last chance
of procuring news about the island, despatched one of his
lieutenants, C. Volusenus, in a “long ship” (i.e., light war-galley),[425]
giving him orders, as soon as he had made the necessary inquiries,
to return to him with all possible speed; a step which showed clearly
what his intentions were, and led to an embassy from the Britons,
offering terms of submission he, perhaps, disbelieved, at all events
declined accepting.
Cæsar soon after collected about eighty vessels of
First invasion, burden, placed in them two legions, and, having
b.c. 55. made his final arrangements, started for England
from Boulogne at midnight on August 26, b.c. 55,
having on board a force of about eight thousand men. Eighteen
other transports conveyed about eight hundred horses for the
cavalry.[426] Beyond the number of the vessels, Cæsar has left us no
information in regard to them, and no indication of their capacity
beyond the incidental statement that two of the galleys, which on
his return got adrift, carried altogether three hundred men.
The number of men constituting a legion varied very much during
the different periods of Roman history, and, in Cæsar’s time,
amounted to about five thousand two hundred and eighty men, all
told; but as Cæsar obviously took with him as few troops as
possible, intending his first descent upon England to be rather a visit
of observation than a conquest, it is likely that the whole number of
his force did not exceed what we have stated, making for each of
the eighty galleys a complement of somewhere about one hundred
men.
At present about three hundred passengers can be
Size of his accommodated in a sailing vessel of one thousand
transports. tons register on a distant voyage; but, in coasting
vessels, the number is very much greater.[427] It
may therefore be assumed that the average size of the vessels in
which Cæsar embarked his legions on this occasion was not more
than one hundred tons register. The horse transports[428] may have
been somewhat larger, as more than thirty-three horses, with their
provender, water, and attendants, could not well be conveyed in a
vessel of less register than one hundred tons, even on so short a
voyage as from Boulogne to Romney[429] or Lymne, performed, as
this voyage was, with a fair wind, in fifteen hours, or at the rate of
about two miles an hour. The ships of burden or transports were all
flat-bottomed, that they might float in shallow water, and be more
expeditiously freighted.
Although the facts preserved with regard to the ships which Cæsar
employed on his first invasion are of the most meagre description,
they are sufficient to show that they drew comparatively little water,
or the men could not have “jumped” out of them, and made good
their footing on the beach with their standard and arms against the
whole British force: most likely, they were rather good stout-decked
or half-decked barges than the ordinary sea-going coasting vessel,
which, if one hundred tons burden, would draw, when laden, from
seven to eight feet of water. There is no record of the ports where
these vessels were constructed; but some of them, Cæsar tells us,
had been employed by him, earlier in the same year, in his war with
the Veneti.
The vessels employed in Cæsar’s second invasion
Second were somewhat similar in form to those in the
invasion, b.c. first; but his army on this occasion consisted of
54.
five legions, with two thousand cavalry, for the
transport of which he had about six hundred boats; there were also
twenty-eight war-galleys.[430] If we appropriate one hundred vessels
for the transport of the two thousand horses, and from seventy to
one hundred for the transport of stores and munitions of war, and, if
the number conveyed was about twenty-seven thousand men, the
rate would be forty-five men to each vessel, so that the vessels on
the second and more important expedition were, on an average,
only about one-half the size of those which had been engaged on
the first, and, like those, consisted, probably, in great measure of
undecked and flat-bottomed boats or barges.
One of the reasons Cæsar assigns for the
Cæsar’s preference he gave in his second expedition to
preference for small vessels was, that he had learned by his
small vessels.
experience of the frequent changes of the tide in
the Channel that the waves were not so violent as he had expected,
and, therefore,[431] that smaller boats were sufficient for his
purpose; but this does not seem to be a very satisfactory view. It is
true that when wind and tide are together the violence of the waves
is modified materially; but when they are opposed, their violence is
greatly increased. We should rather suppose that, in preferring open
row boats to sailing vessels for his second expedition, Cæsar had
more especially in his mind the facility with which they could be
beached. One effect of Cæsar’s selection of this large flotilla
became, however, at once manifest in the terror it caused to the
Britons, who, instead of resisting his landing, fled precipitately in all
directions at the sight of so numerous a squadron, and retired into
the interior. The debarkation of the troops on the second invasion
was therefore effected without obstruction; and the vessels, after
having discharged their freights, were anchored in Dungeness Bay.
Finding that the British forces had retreated in the direction of
Canterbury, then, as now, the capital of Kent, Cæsar determined on
a rapid advance, most probably crossing the river Stour at Wye,
about twelve miles from Lymne, near to which, as before, he had
disembarked. Challock Wood, a considerable military post in the
wars between the kings of Kent and Sussex, is, with reasonable
probability, believed to have been the scene of the first encounter
between the British and Roman forces. In this battle, though on the
whole successful, it is clear that Cæsar had not much to plume
himself upon; moreover, it was followed by a great disaster, in a gale
which wrecked forty, and more or less disabled the whole of the
vessels in which he had crossed the Channel. But the Roman general
was not dismayed; having collected those least injured, he hauled
them up on the shore, threw a rampart around them to preserve
them from the attacks of the Britons, and leaving Labienus to collect
fresh ships in Gaul, at once placed himself at the head of his legions.
[432]
FOOTNOTES:
[406] Lucan, Phars. iv. cf. Fest. Avienus, “Ora Maritima,” v. 80-130, and Plin. iv. c.
16.
[407] Cæsar describes the ships of the Veneti, B. G. iii. 13.
[408] Sueton. Claud. c. 18. Cod. Theodos. v. 13, 5.
[409] Cæs. Bell. Gall. v. 12, 14.
[410] Ibid. ii. 4.
[411] Ibid. v. 22.
[412] Ibid. v. 12.
[413] Tacit. Agric. c. ii.
[414] Cæs. Bell. Gall. iv. 19.
[415] Cæs. Bell. Gall. vi. 13, 14.
[416] Ibid. v. 10.
[417] Ibid. v. 15.
[418] Sussex was the chief seat of the iron manufacture of England till coal
became abundant. In the reign of Queen Elizabeth seventy-three furnaces are said
to have been at work, and the last, at Ashburnham, was only blown out in 1827.
The railings round St. Paul’s Cathedral (temp. Queen Anne) are made of Sussex
iron.
[419] Virgil, Eclog. i. 67.
[420] Tacit. Agric. Sueton. Cæs. c. 46, 47.
[421] Cæs. Bell. Gall. iv. 18.
[422] Ibid. v. 16.
[423] Dio. xxxix. 51.
[424] Cæs. Bell. Gall. iv. 18.
[425] Cæs. Bell. Gall. iv. c. 21.
[426] It would be out of place here to discuss the vexed question of the places,
respectively, whence Cæsar started from France, and where he landed in England.
We can only say that, having read the several memoirs on this subject, by Halley,
d’Anville, Dr. Guest, Master of Caius Coll., Cambr., the Astronomer Royal, and Mr.
Lewin, we are inclined to think that the essay by the last-named writer (London,
1859) is the most consistent with the language of Cæsar himself. In the following
pages, therefore, his views have been generally adopted.
[427] By the Passengers Act, which applies to all British possessions, except India
and Hong Kong, the space allowed in passenger ships to each statute adult is not
to be less than 15 clear superficial feet in the poop or in the upper passenger-
deck, nor less than 18 clear superficial feet on the lower passenger-deck; and the
height between decks is not to be less than 6 feet for the upper passenger-deck,
nor less than 7 feet for the lower passenger-deck. Each person of twelve years
and upwards, and two children between one and twelve years, count as an adult.
By the 16 and 17 Vict. cap. 84, however, the governors of colonies may, by
proclamation, reduce this space to 12 superficial feet in the case of passengers,
being natives of Asia and Africa, sailing from their governments.
[428] Cæs. B. G. iv. 32, 33.
[429] It seems a reasonable conjecture that in the name of Romney (i.e., Roman
marsh or island) we have a relic of Cæsar’s invasion.
[430] Cæs. B. G. v. 2.
[431] Cæs. B. G. v. 1.
[432] The “Invasion of Britain by Julius Cæsar,” by Thomas Lewin, Esq., M.A.,
1859.
[433] Cæs. B. G. v. 19; and Roach Smith’s “Antiquities of Richborough, Reculver,
and Lymne. Lond. 1850.”
[434] It is generally supposed that Cassivelaunus, in execution of a well concerted
plan, retired, followed by Cæsar, from the banks of the Stour along the southern
side of the chalk hills running from Wye to Dorking, and then down the right bank
of the Mole to the nearest point of the Thames at “Coway stakes,” situated
between Walton and Shepperton. In the year 1855, the author of this work
purchased the principal property in the latter parish, and a few years afterwards
that of Halliford, so named from the ford at Coway, where the Romans are
supposed to have crossed the Thames. Since then he has resided almost
constantly in the Manor-house of Shepperton, which, on the authority of Stukeley
and of other antiquaries, occupies the site where Cæsar pitched his camp after
the final defeat of the ancient Britons. The paddock, about fourteen acres in
extent, attached to his house, is said to have derived its name from the fact that
there the battle between the Romans and Britons raged in its greatest fury, and
that there it ended, with great carnage, in the overthrow of Cassivelaunus. In the
recent Ordnance maps, as well as in some maps of an ancient date, this paddock
is described as “War-close field, from which there has been dug spears, swords,
and great quantities of human bones.”
Cæsar in his Commentaries remarks (book v. c. xvii): ‘Cæsar, perceiving their
design, marched the army to the river Thames, towards the territory of
Cassivelaunus; that river was fordable only at one place, and there with difficulty.
When he arrived, he saw that the enemy was drawn up in great force at the
opposite bank of the river; but the bank was fortified with stakes fixed in front;
stakes also of the same kind were driven into the bed of the river, concealed from
view by the stream. Cæsar, learning this from the prisoners and deserters, having
sent the cavalry before, ordered the legions to follow closely. This the soldiers did
with such celerity and vigour, their heads only seen above water, that the enemy
could not sustain the shock of the legions and cavalry, but abandoned the banks
and betook themselves to flight.
Besides the traces of a great Roman camp, still distinctly visible on the brow of St.
George’s hill, about two miles from Coway stakes, the footprints of the legions are
to be seen in many places round Shepperton, and have been noted by Bede, Roy,
Camden, Salmon, Gale, Stukeley, and other antiquarian writers. To these the
author may add his own testimony, having found, in different parts of the property
(especially when cleaning out a ditch which runs through War-close), various
Roman coins and spikes, resembling spear-heads. Other relics of the Romans,
such as urns, have frequently been dug from the gravel-pits opened during his
time in different fields in the parish.
[435] Tacit. Agric. c. 13; and Strabo confirms this view (iv. c. 4.).
[436] Ibid. c. 15.
[437] Tacit. Ann. xii. 34.
[438] Strabo speaks, from personal observation, of the large stature of the Britons
whom he saw at Rome.
[439] Generally considered to be represented by the village of Bittern, about one
and a half miles up the Itchen, above the present Southampton.
[440] Cæs. B. G. vi. 13 and 14. Ibid. v. 14.
[441] Ptol. Geogr. ii. c. 3.
[442] “Uriconium, or Wroxeter,” by T. Wright, F.S.A. Lond. 1872.
[443] Tacit. Ann. xii. c. 31.
[444] “Abury Illustrated,” by W. Long, M.A. Devizes, 1858.
[445] Nor can we omit noticing here a matter which has in former times been
much disputed, whether or no there are any coins, clearly British, antecedent to
the invasion of Cæsar. On the evidence of all the best MSS. of Cæsar’s
Commentaries, especially of a very fine one of the tenth century in the British
Museum, we find Cæsar distinctly stating that the Britons “use either brass money
or gold money, or instead of money, iron rings, adjusted to a certain weight.”
(Cæs. Bell. Gall. v. 10. E. Hawkins’ “Silver Coins of England” (1841), pp. 9-14.
Evans’ “Coins of the Ancient Britons,” pp. 18 and 285. Lond. 1864.) It was only
about the seventeenth century that the editors of Cæsar, Scaliger leading the way,
corrupted this passage and made him assert that only substitutes for money were
used by the natives. All the facts are in favour of the MSS., for coins of gold,
sometimes of silver, but very rarely of copper, are found in different parts of
England, and as is evident to any eye, are in form, fabric, and type, constructed
on a model differing essentially from any thing of Roman origin. Indeed, as is well
known to numismatists, the original British coins were constructed on Greek
models, and, however rude, may be traced back, step by step, to the gold money
(staters) of Philip, the father of Alexander the Great. Plenty of coins exist of the
time of Cæsar’s second invasion and of Cunobeline, who was alive in the reign of
Claudius; the first, in a purely British (i.e., Greek) type, the second, with an
obvious imitation of those of the Romans—and perhaps executed, as some have
thought, by Roman artists.—Tacit. Annals, xii. 31-36.
[446] Dion. Cass. lx. c. 21.
[447] Strabo, iv. 2.
[448] Strabo, iii. p. 119; ii. p. 190; iv. pp. 279, 318. Diod. Sic. v. s. 22.
[449] Ibid. ii. p. 176; and iv. p. 306.
[450] Ibid. i. p. 132.
[451] Dion. lx. 21.
[452] J. Evans, “Coins of the Ancient Britons,” p. 284, &c. Lond. 1864.
[453] Details of early London in Ptol. i. 15; vi. 8. Tacit. Ann. xiv. 33. It is first
mentioned by Tacitus.
[454] Tacit. Vit. Agric. c. 19.
[455] Tacit. Ann. xiv. 33.
[456] Juvenal, Sat. iv. 140.
[457] Martial, xiv. 99.
[458] Dion. lxvi. 12.
[459] For further details, see Rev. J. C. Bruce, “The Roman Wall from Tyne to
Solway.” 4to., 1867.
[460] An attempt has been made by one or two writers to connect the name of
Carausius with the “War of Caros” in the so-called “Poems of Ossian.” For this
there will be some pretence, whenever it shall be shown that Ossian exists, except
in the brain of Macpherson.
[461] Camden describes Kiulæ as a general name for all Saxon vessels. Other
writers say that Kiula meant “long ships,” i.e., men of war, or galleys, whatever
might be their precise shape. Keel now represents a description of barge which
has long been in use in the north of England, and especially on the Tyne, built to
hold twenty-one tons four hundredweight, or a keel of coals.
[462] Macpherson’s “Annals of Commerce,” i. p. 217.
[463] Bede places the final withdrawal of the Roman forces from England, and the
consequent misfortunes which befell the native Britons, at just before the siege of
Rome by Attila, a.d. 409. Eccles. Hist. i. c. 2. See also “Uriconium,” by T. Wright.
8vo., 1872.
CHAPTER XI.
The early Scandinavian Vikings settle on the coast of Scotland and
elsewhere—Great skill as seamen—Discovery of ancient ship, and of
other early relics—Incursions of the Saxons and Angles into Britain;
and its state soon afterwards—London—Accession of Offa, a.d. 755—
Restrictions on trade and commerce—Salutary regulations—
Charlemagne’s first treaty of commerce with England, a.d. 796—
Extension of French commerce, a.d. 813—Commerce of England
harassed by the Danes—Their ships, and the habits of their owners—
Increase of the Northern marauders—Language of the Northmen still
spoken by mariners in the North—Accession of Alfred the Great, a.d.
871: his efforts to improve navigation, and to extend the knowledge
of geography—Foundation of a royal and commercial navy—His
voyages of discovery and missions to the East—Reign of Edward the
Elder, a.d. 901-25, and of his son Athelstan, a.d. 925-41—Edgar’s
fleet, and his arrangements for suppressing piracy—The wisdom of
his policy—Ethelred II., a.d. 979-1016—Sufferings of the people—
Charges on vessels trading to London—Olaf, king of Norway, his
ships, and those of Swein—Love of display—Mode of navigating—
Canute, a.d. 1016—Reduction of the English fleet—Prosperity of
commerce—Norman invasion, a.d. 1066—Number of vessels
engaged, and their form—State of trade and commerce—Exports—
Manufactures—Wealth—Imports—Taxation—London specially
favoured—Chester specially burdened—State of the people at the
time of the Conquest.