Abstract 6

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Abstract 6: Macroeconomics, energy and CO2 emisions.

The article examines the relationship between macroeconomic performance, energy


consumption, and CO2 emissions, with a particular emphasis on how economic expansion,
which is fueled by fossil fuel energy intensity, affects emissions. Moreover, it investigates the
feasibility of shifting to greener energy models while dealing with the COVID-19
pandemic economic recovery. The study's key question is whether it is possible to reduce
emissions without sacrificing economic development, and how the transition to renewable
energy can promote a long-term economic recovery.

The theoretical foundation for this article is based on neoclassical growth models that include
energy as a fundamental input in production. These models imply that economic expansion,
particularly in energy-intensive industries, is intimately related to rising CO2 levels.
Furthermore, this study builds on Díaz research on the relationship between energy demand and
economic growth. This theoretical foundation is critical for understanding the economic
consequences of lowering emissions and meeting the objectives of initiatives such as the
European Green Deal.

The analysis is based on data from worldwide energy consumption and emissions databases,
focusing on the years 1971 to 2019. The study uses the Kaya identity to break down CO2
emissions into four essential components: population, GDP per capita, energy consumption, and
carbon intensity of energy usage. By analyzing this data across different countries to determine
how changes in energy efficiency and energy mix effect emissions and economic growth. The
study estimates the associations between these variables using econometric techniques such as
System GMM models.

The study's findings show that CO2 emissions are heavily connected with economic growth,
especially in countries where energy-intensive sectors drive expansion. A crucial result is that
decreases in energy intensity—using less energy per unit of GDP—have been the main factor in
reducing emissions thus far, with the move to renewable energy having a less significant
influence. Thus, the study indicates that economic development tends to result in more
emissions unless energy efficiency improves, or the energy mix changes significantly.

However, the analysis also shows that countries with lower energy intensity and a higher
proportion of renewables in their energy mix can achieve economic growth while emitting
fewer emissions. This underscores the significance of investing in energy-efficient technologies
and accelerating the shift to cleaner energy sources. According to the report, meeting the
European Union's Green Deal's ambitious climate targets, such as decreasing emissions by 55%
by 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2050, will necessitate significant changes in energy
usage and manufacturing technology.
In conclusion, the article emphasizes the difficulty of balancing economic expansion with
environmental sustainability. Although lowering CO2 emissions without sacrificing economic
activity is difficult, the analysis implies that targeted investments in energy efficiency and
renewable energy could make a major contribution to emissions reduction. To accomplish
economic recovery as well as the environmental goals of the Paris Agreement and the European
Green Deal, policymakers must emphasize energy efficiency and the transition to renewables,
particularly in energy-intensive sectors.

Beatriz Machado Pernía

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