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Probability More Complex Problems

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Charl Barangan
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29 views

Probability More Complex Problems

Uploaded by

Charl Barangan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Engineering Data Analysis:

Probability: More Complex


Problems
Prepared by: Engr. L.A. Agustin
Content Outline:
• Total Probability Rule
• Baye’s Rule

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USE.
The Law of Total Probability
If {B1, B2, B3,..} is a finite or countably infinite partition of a sample
space, and A is an event in the same sample space, then

𝑃 𝐴 = ෍ 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑖 = ෍ 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵𝑖 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )
𝑖 𝑖

Events B1, B2, and B3 S


are mutually exclusive
since no two overlap
and also exhaustive
(their union covers the
A
whole sample space)

B1 B2 B3
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USE.
The Law of Total Probability

S
A
𝑃 𝐴 = ෍ 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑖 = ෍ 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵𝑖 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )
𝑖 𝑖
B1 B2 B3
For the figure above:

Recall: Conditional
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵1 + 𝑃(𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵2 + 𝑃(𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵3
probability P(B|A)= P (A∩B)/P(A) 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵1 𝑃(𝐵1 ) + 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵2 𝑃(𝐵2 ) + 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵3 𝑃(𝐵3 )

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USE.
Example
A ball is selected from a random bag. What is
the probability that the ball is red?

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USE.
Example
Customers who purchase a certain make of car
can order an engine in any of three sizes. Of all
cars sold, 45% have the smallest engine, 35%
have the medium-sized one, and 20% have the
largest. Of cars with the smallest engine, 10% fail
an emissions test within two years of purchase,
while 12% of those with the medium size and 15%
of those with the largest engine fail. What is the
probability that a randomly chosen car will fail an
emissions test within two years?
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USE.
Baye’s Theorem
If A and B are two events, we have seen that in most cases
P(A|B) is not equal to P(B|A). Baye’s Rule provide a
formula that allows us to calculate one of the conditional
probabilities if we know the other one.

𝑷 𝑩 𝑨) ⋅ 𝑷(𝑨)
𝑷 𝑨𝑩 =
𝑷(𝑩)

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USE.
Example
You’ve been planning a picnic for your family. You’re trying
to decide whether to postpone due to rain. The chance of
rain on any day is 15%. Should you postpone the picnic?

The morning of the picnic, it’s cloudy. The probability of it


being cloudy is 25% and on the days where it rains, it’s
cloudy in the morning 80% of the time.

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USE.
Example:
The proportion of people in a given community who have a
certain disease is 0.005. A test is available to diagnose
the disease. If a person has the disease, the probability
that the test will produce a positive signal is 0.99. If a
person does not have the disease, the probability that the
test will produce a positive signal is 0.01. If a person tests
positive, what is the probability that the person actually
has the disease?

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USE.
Example:
In the process of producing engine valves, the
valves are subjected to a first grind. Valves
whose thicknesses are within the specification
are ready for installation. Those valves whose
thicknesses are above the specification are
reground, while those whose thicknesses are
below the specification are scrapped. Assume
that after the first grind, 70% of the valves
meet the specification, 20% are reground, and
10% are scrapped. Furthermore, assume that
of those valves that are reground, 90% meet
the specification, and 10% are scrapped.
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USE.
a. Find the probability that a valve is ground only once.
b. Given that a valve is not reground, what is the probability that it
is scrapped?
c. Find the probability that a valve is scrapped.
d. Given that a valve is scrapped, what is the probability that it was
ground twice?
e. Find the probability that the valve meets the specification (after
either the first or second grind).
f. Given that a valve meets the specification (after either the first
or second grind), what is the probability that it was ground
twice?
g. Given that a valve meets the specification, what is the
probability that it was ground only once?

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USE.

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