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    Chap 2

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    RasDany

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    Chap 2

    Uploaded by

    RasDany
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    2 views5 pages

    Chap 2

    Uploaded by

    RasDany

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 5

    Chapter two

    2. Conditional probability

    2.1 Introduction to conditional probability

    • Conditional Probability - Probability of A given B


    P( A B)  P( A B) , where P(B)  0
    P(B)

    This definition can be understood in a special case in which all outcomes of a random experiment
    are equally likely. If there are n total outcomes,

    Example:
    Example: A day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do not meet
    customer requirements. Two parts are selected randomly without replacement from the batch.
    What is the probability that the second part is defective given that the first part is defective?

    Let A denote the event that the first part selected is defective, and let B denote the event that the
    second part selected is defective. The probability needed can be expressed as P(B/A) If the first
    part is defective, prior to selecting the second part, the batch contains 849
    parts, of which 49 are defective, therefore.

    Exercise: The following computer are categorized based on their type and

    performance

    Toshiba Dell
    High performance 40 30
    Low 20 10

    What is the probability of high given that of Toshiba?


    2.2 Additive and Total probability Rules
    i). Additive Rules
    Joint events are generated by applying basic set operations to individual events. Unions of events,
    such as AUB; intersections of events, such as A∩B; and complements of events, such as ,A’ are
    commonly of interest. The probability of a joint event can often be determined from the
    probabilities of the individual events that comprise it. Basic set operations are also sometimes
    helpful in determining the probability of a joint event. In this section the focus is on unions of
    events.
    The probability of A or B is interpreted as P(AUB) and that the following general addition rule
    applies.

    Example 1: A given product classified as either in the “center’’ or at the “edge’’ of the
    sputtering tool that was used in manufacturing, and by the degree of contamination. The
    following table shows the proportion of the product in each category.

    A).What is the probability that a wafer was either at the edge or that it contains four or more
    particles?

    B). What is the probability that a wafer contains less than two particles or that it is both at the edge
    and contains more than four particles?
    Solution:
    A). Let E1 denote the event that a wafer contains four or more particles, and
    Let E2 denote the event that a wafer is at the edge.
    The requested probability is P(E1UE2), Now P(E1) = 0.15 and P(E2) = 0.28, Also, from the table, P(E1 ∩E2 ) = 0.04.
    Therefore, using Equation 2-1, we find that

    b). Find the answer of b?

    ii). Total probability Rules

    P( A)  P( A B)  P( A B )
    In terms of conditional probabilities:

    P( A)  P( A B)  P( A B )
     P( A B) P( B)  P( A B ) P( B )
    More generally (where Bi make up a partition):

    P( A)   P( A B )
    i
      P( AB )P(B )
    i i
    2.3.. Bayes Rule

    Example: Suppose 20% of the people in a certain group are bad drivers. Of these, 40%
    drive sport cars. Of the good drivers, 5% drive sport cars. If you pick a person at random
    and he drives a sports car, what is the probability that he is a bad driver?

    Solution: Let V, B and G denote the events corresponding to sports, bad and good
    drivers in a sample space S that corresponds to the population of interest. Then

    P(V) = P(V/B) P(B) + P(V/G) P(G)


    0.4*0.2 + 0.05*0.8 = 0.12

    Thus, P(B/V) = P(V/B) P(B) / P(V)


    = P(V/B) P(B) / P(V/B) P(B) + P(V/G) P(G)
    = 0.4*0.2/0.12 = 2/3

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