ANTICIPATECH

Scenario Game
using technological trends and megatrends
By Konstantinos Konstantinidis, Quentin Ladetto, Jan Oliver Schwarz,
Philipp Schweiger & Theresa Schropp
Federal Office for Defence Procurement
armasuisse
Science and Technology
Feuerwerkerstrasse 39
3602 Thun

Illustrations & Graphic design : Sophie Brakha

ISBN: 978-3-9525890-9-0
Contact: quentin.ladetto@armasuisse.ch
 contents
Purpose and goals 4
Foreword 5
Executive summary 6
1 Introduction 7
2 Technological trends 8
2.1 Data science and AI 9
2.2 Immersive technologies 14
2.3 Quantum technologies 18
2.4 Sensor technologies 23
2.5 New space technologies 28
2.6 New materials and digital production 32
2.7 Renewable energy and resilience 36
2.8 Human enhancement technologies 41
2.9 Cyber technologies 46
2.10 Digital communication 51
2.11 Robotic and autonomous systems 56
3 Megatrends 60
3.1 Aggravating resource scarcity 61
3.2 Changing nature of work 64
3.3 Changing security paradigm 67
3.4 Climate change and environmental degradation 70
3.5 Continuing urbanisation 73
3.6 Diversification of education and learning 76
3.7 Widening inequalities 79
3.8 Expanding influence of East and South 82
3.9 Growing consumption 85
3.10 Increasing demographic imbalances 88
3.11 Increasing influence of new governing systems 91
3.12 Increasing significance of migration 94
3.13 Shifting health challenges 97
3.14 Diversity-aware society 100
4 Cross-impact analysis 103
5 Scenario Game 105
5.1 Motivation 105
5.2 Principles 106
5.3 Description and manual for the game 107
6 Conclusion and next steps 110
About section 111
About the participating organisations .
About this publication .
Acknowledgements .
About the authors 112
Purpose and goals
Purpose and goals

Inspire, Inform, Instruct for Impact: Launched in 2013, the technology foresight research
program of armasuisse Science and Technology has since explored numerous themes
and methodologies, staying true to this motto.
In a world of rapid and chaotic change where technology plays an important role, we
felt the need to create a foresight ecosystem from which we could structure and orga-
nise debates and exchanges between our different stakeholders.
The ecosystem consists of content referred to unsurprisingly as “trends” and of diffe-
rent methodologies and how to use them. If definitions and descriptions are important,
the emphasis here is placed on the dissemination of the information and how private
persons and organisations can adopt it, and use it as preparation for their individual
purposes.
The 11 technology trends you find in this document are therefore the same as those
used internally within armasuisse to structure our research. Out of the original 12, we
have omitted the “New Weapons” trend, as it was considered to be too specific. Their
descriptions are by default incomplete, but provide the necessary understanding to
work with them creatively.
As technology does not develop in a vacuum, we have captured the main tensions
within society in the 14 megatrends. These allow us to consider different use cases and
to challenge them in the given circumstances – in short, to give context to how various
potential future innovations could represent an opportunity or a threat for an industry
or a country.
Of the infinite ways of organising workshops and games, this document contains some
of the choices that we made according to the time that you would like or, more often,
are able to dedicate to foresight activities. There is never enough time with enough
material that you can hack, adapt and tailor to your needs. We intend to get the ball
rolling and provide you (and us!) with enough material that we can hack, adapt and
tailor to our needs.
Given the context, you may still be asking yourself: “Why opt for such a project with
the Bavarian Foresight Institute?”. I could answer this question, but I will not with the
hope that the quality of what you will find here reflects the competencies, the energy
and the enthusiasm we demonstrated while working with the team headed by Prof. Dr
Jan Oliver Schwarz.

Enjoy the ride!

Foresightedly yours,

Dr Quentin Ladetto
Head of Technology Foresight
armasuisse Science and Technology

4
 foreword
Foreword

While it has existed as a field of practice and research for many decades, foresight is
gaining more and more relevance today. The numerous crises, the increasing levels of
volatility and the rising uncertainty concerning the future have all emphasized one
thing: the future will be very different from today, and in various ways that are hard to
imagine today.
While organisations need to be agile in their reactions to constant changes, they need
to simultaneously embrace the long term, be it because of long product- or planning
cycles or because organisations also need a long-term perspective, i.e. a vision that
guides their actions and delivers a sense of purpose.
Accepting that the future is not predictable is a first step towards developing foresight,
but more needs to follow. Carrying out research to identify trends is fundamental for
foresight, but foremost thinking in scenarios is paramount. Based on the trends that we
can observe, we need to explore the possible futures. And this is best done by develo-
ping scenarios and alternative pictures of the future.
At the Bavarian Foresight Institute, we know from our work with many different types
of organisations that providing well-researched trends is just one side of the coin.
The other side of the coin is about involving decision-makers in thinking about the
future. Following the paradigm of “understanding vs. consuming”, we believe that ac-
tive engagement with trends and scenarios will help decision-makers to develop fore-
sight-thinking.
In this joint project with armasuisse Science and Technology, we want to embrace these
thoughts. We not only provide a collection of relevant technology and megatrends, we
also provide an engagement format, the “Scenario Game”, that allows us to work with
these trends and explore the future, eventually developing foresight.
We hope that you find this journey not only insightful but also enjoyable!

Foresightedly yours,

Prof. Dr Jan Oliver Schwarz

Head of Institute
Bavarian Foresight Institute, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt

5
executive
Executive
summary

This project explores the following key emerging In the second part, a range of key megatrends are
technologies and their future implications: defined and discussed in a similar fashion. These
are:
1. Data science and AI
2. Immersive technologies 1. Aggravating resource scarcity
3. Quantum technologies 2. Changing nature of work
4. Sensor technologies 3. Changing security paradigm
5. New space technologies 4. Climate change and environmental
6. New materials and digital production degradation
7. Renewable energy and resilience 5. Continuing urbanisation
8. Human enhancement technologies 6. Diversification of education and learning
9. Cyber technologies 7. Widening inequalities
10. Digital communication 8. Expanding influence of East and South
11. Robotic and autonomous systems 9. Growing consumption
10. Increasing demographic imbalances
The aims of the project are as follows: 11. Increasing influence of new governing
systems
1. Expand research on emerging technologies. 12. Increasing significance of migration
2. Assess how these emerging technologies will be in- 13. Shifting health challenges
terconnected with the wider megatrends in the future. 14. Diversity-aware society
3. Create an engaging workshop format for leaders of
the Swiss Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protec- In the third part, the “Scenario Game” was deve-
tion and Sport. loped to explore the dynamics of the above tech-
nological trends in a collaborative environment.
This report discusses the outcome of this project. It is The concept of the “Scenario Game” is introduced and
split into three parts. described, and instructions for its execution are provi-
ded. The game can be used as an interactive and fast
In the first part, each of the above technological method for collaboratively working on assessing the
trends is defined and described. implications of these technology trends for a given in-
The assumed impacts each trend will have are also dustry, focus or organisation.
presented, while any uncertainties and challenges sur-
rounding a given technological trend are discussed. The detailed information on the key technology trends
Some weak signals for the trend are given. and megatrends, as well as the “Scenario Game”, can
serve as valuable resources for any expert or organi-
sation to assess the future impact of these key trends
quickly and interactively.

6
1 Introduction
Today, organisations face a more complex and dynamic The aims of the project can be then broken down as fol-
environment than ever before, one that is characterised lows:
by discontinuation and an uncertain future – a situation 1. Expand research on emerging technologies.
that is most likely to persist. The major task for mana- 2. Assess how these emerging technologies will be inter-
gers today is to make decisions, and then formulate and connected with the wider megatrends in the future.
execute strategic management systems in the respective 3. Create an engaging workshop format for leaders of
environment. the Swiss Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection
and Sport.
Organisations are faced with a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain,
Complex and Ambiguous) environment. One way of ob- The above technological trends do not exist in isolation
serving VUCA is to pay attention to the trends and is- but evolve within a wider context. To explore the inte-
sues in the environment of an organisation. Trends in the ractions between these technological trends and this
socio-political, socio-cultural, environmental, economic context, a set of key megatrends was derived from the
and technological environments may represent drivers of European Commission knowledge base. Megatrends are
change in the future that are critical to strategy formu- long-term driving forces that are observable now and will
lation. In addition, a firm’s resources and competences most likely have a significant influence on the future. The
may need to be re-evaluated due to emerging trends and megatrends considered most relevant in the context of
issues. In this context, organisations need to develop fo- this project are :
resight to compete and be a viable part of the future. 1. Aggravating resource scarcity
2. Changing nature of work
Strategic foresight can be defined as identifying, obser- 3. Changing security paradigm
ving and interpreting factors that induce change, deter- 4. Climate change and environmental degradation
mining possible organisation-specific implications and 5. Continuing urbanisation
triggering the appropriate organisational responses. It 6. Diversification of education and learning
involves multiple stakeholders and creates value through 7. Widening inequalities
providing access to critical resources ahead of compe- 8. Expanding influence of East and South
tition, preparing the organisation for change and per- 9. Growing consumption
mitting the organisation to steer proactively towards a 10. Increasing demographic imbalances
desired future [Rohrbeck et al, 2015]. Tools typically used 11. Increasing influence of new governing systems
in strategic foresight include scenario planning, trends 12. Increasing significance of migration
and weak signals, the Delphi method, and business war- 13. Shifting health challenges
gaming. 14. Diversity-aware society

The overall goal of this study is to explore a range of The structure of the project and the process of the work
key emerging technologies and their future implications. are shown in Figure 3. In this project, we first perfor-
These technological trends are: med research on the twelve technological trends and
1. Data science and AI the fourteen megatrends. The results of this research
2. Immersive technologies are provided in Chapters 2 and 3. The interactions and
3. Quantum technologies interdependencies between these technological trends
4. Sensor technologies and megatrends were assessed by means of a cross-im-
5. New space technologies pact analysis. The results of this analysis are provided in
6. New materials and digital production Chapter 4. We subsequently designed a Scenario Game
7. Renewable energy and resilience workshop. All of the relevant concepts and materials for
8. Human enhancement technologies the Scenario Game as well as instructions for how to
9. Cyber technologies execute it are provided in Chapter 5. The main results,
10. Digital communication observations and conclusion of this work are discussed
11. Robotic and autonomous systems in Chapter 6.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Schwarz, J. O., “Strategic Foresight - An Introductory Guide to Practice”, Routledge, Book, 2023,
https://www.routledge.com/Strategic-Foresight-An-Introductory-Guide-to-Practice/Schwarz/p/book/9781032299235
— Rohrbeck, R. et al., “Corporate Foresight: An Emerging Field with a Rich Tradition.”
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 101: 1–9, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.002

7
2 Technological
trends
As a first step, research was carried out on the technolo-
gical trends. The purpose of this was to provide the ne-
cessary understanding for each trend so that it can be
used in the Scenario Game in an inspirational manner.
Each chapter follows a defined format. The different sec-
tions are defined here.

General description:
This section includes a definition of the trend to en-
sure transparency in further discussions. One or more
frameworks are used to further define the scope of the
trend. Finally, an explanation is provided on how the
trend is changing and what is driving the change.

Impact and the main uncertainties and challenges:

First, the discussion is structured along three levels:
which high-level functions the trend fulfils, how could
these functions improve in the future and what applica-
tions and use cases could these improvements enable or
improve. This discussion is set out in the form of a table.
A second discussion regarding impact follows the STEEP
framework, a tool for assessing how Social, Technolo-
gical, Economic, Environmental and Political external
factors affect a given topic. This discussion focuses on
the main uncertainties associated with this trend concer-
ning its further development, consideration of the pos-
sible directions the trend could develop in, as well as the
challenges that might hinder the further development of
the trend.

Weak signals:
A weak signal is the first indicator of a change or an
emerging issue that may become significant in the fu-
ture. Weak signals for each trend were collected from
the Trend Manager-curated database created and main-
tained by Trendone. The date of access to this database is
set out in the “References and further reading” entry of
the report for each technological trend.

Interactions between trends and megatrends:

First of all, initial and non-exhaustive indications of inte-
ractions with other technological trends and megatrends
are discussed in this section. This section serves as a basis
for a more detailed cross-impact analysis based on the
method presented in Chapter 4 in a workshop setting.
The subsequent sections present the reports for each
technology trend.

8
 Data science

2.1 DATA SCIENCE AND AI HARNESSING THE POWER OF DATA TO EMULATE

AND SUPPLEMENT HUMAN INTELLIGENCE

DESCRIPTION: stems from our increasingly digital and virtual world, and
the subsequent need to make sense of the resulting ava-
Big data describes data that presents significant volume, lanche of information.
velocity, variety, veracity and visualisation challenges. In-
creased digitisation, a proliferation of new sensors, new The essential challenge faced by analytics is how to make
communication methods, the internet of things (IoT) and sense of large amounts of non-homogeneous data that
the virtualisation of socio-cognitive spaces (e.g. social are generated too quickly, and that are of potentially
media) have contributed significantly to the develop- dubious authenticity and accuracy. These challenges are
ment of big data. Advanced (data) analytics describes also known as the 5V’s (volume, velocity, variety, veracity
advanced analytical methods for making sense of and and visualisation).
visualising large volumes of information. These tech-
niques draw from research such as artificial intelligence, Artificial intelligence has moved through three develop-
optimisation, modelling and simulation, etc. Artificial ment cycles. The initial period focused on rules-based ap-
Intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of machines to per- proaches (expert-based decision trees, Boolean and fuzzy
form tasks that normally require human intelligence – for logic), e.g. expert systems. The second cycle focused on
example, recognising patterns, learning from experience, the development and application of statistical methods
drawing conclusions, making predictions and taking ac- (i.e. supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement lear-
tion. ning). Such machine learning methods have been highly
successful and underlie everything from e-mail spam
Data science is a process that, simply put, generates filtering to internet web searches. The third cycle of de-
insights and predictions from data. Data analytics me- velopment focuses on the use of bio-inspired learning
thods can then be used to extract output such as insights, methods (neural networks1, deep learning), with consi-
classifications and predictions. The need for data science derable success in the areas of sensing and perception.

9
Data science
Most concrete definitions of artificial intelligence fall into examples or the output of the data. The machine is gi-
one of four categories; these categories represent ap- ven examples or training data (labelled data) and is able
proaches that take distinct positions on two conceptual to learn a function that maps the input of the training
dimensions: data to some output2. An example application would be
• Whether it emphasises the attainment of specific “in- image recognition, for example distinguishing between
telligent” or “sentient” thought processes (T) and reaso- cats and dogs. Intermediate semi-supervised approaches
ning, or whether it emphasises “goal-oriented”; “effec- exist between this and the above approach.
tive” behaviour (B); • Reinforcement learning is about learning the op-
• Whether it measures success against human perfor- timal behaviour in a specific environment to obtain the
mance (H) or against an ideal concept of intelligence – maximum reward. This optimal behaviour is learned
usually defined as “rationality” (R); through interactions with the environment and observa-
tions of how it responds. An example would be self-dri-
The four categories of artificial intelligence definitions ving cars, which learn by trial and error.
can then be categorised as: Over the coming years and decades, data volumes will
• (T-H) Systems that think like humans (e.g. cognitive continue to grow, as the number of handheld and online
science), devices grows exponentially and the internet of things
• (T-R) Systems that think rationally, becomes a reality. The sheer volume of data that this
• (B-H) Systems that act like humans, and will create is difficult to comprehend. Future avenues for
• (B-R) Systems that act rationally. analytics and advanced computational techniques for
data processing and fusion include increasingly capable
From a practical perspective, the focus tends to be on methods from artificial intelligence, specifically machine
the way artificially intelligent systems manage to act in learning, as discussed above.
the world. These are known as behaviour-focused (B) ap-
proaches. A logical sequence along which progress on AI will unfold
can be separated into three tiers:
Artificial intelligence functions can be broken down into • Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI or “narrow AI”):
two high-level categories: machine intelligence that equals or exceeds human intel-
ligence for specific tasks such as chess, high-frequency
• Parsing inputs, which deals with issues of perception,
trading or indeed any specialised automatic systems deli-
computer vision, natural language processing, and taking
vering performances beyond human reach;
appropriate cues from social intelligence; and
• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI or “strong AI”):
• Planning and executing outputs (“behaviour”),
machine intelligence meeting the full range of human
which involves appropriate processes for knowledge
performance across any task; and:
representation, prioritisation and planning. For systems
• Artificial Superintelligence (ASI): machine intelli-
with physical forms, like robots, this involves moving,
gence that exceeds human intelligence across any task.
avoiding collisions and controlling arms or other parts.
Data science is driven by the increasing digitisation of
almost all aspects of how we work and live, aided by
Machine learning (ML) has been the subfield that is
massive commercial investments, as well as the availabi-
most responsible for the recent advances in artificial in-
lity of publicly available training data sets and tools for
telligence. Machine learning aims to create systems (i.e.
algorithm development and testing. The move to cloud
algorithms) able to automatically learn the relationship
platforms has facilitated a massively accelerated impro-
between input data and the classifications or actions you
vement in data availability and data access.
want to happen without being explicitly programmed.
Developments in artificial intelligence are driven by very
There are three main approaches in this field:
strong commercial investments, given the recent rapid
• Unsupervised learning is defined as learning solu- advances in the field.
tions (known as models) that are not overseen (or super- • Reinforcement learning is about learning the op-
vised) by data labelled or tagged by someone. An exa- timal behaviour in a specific environment to obtain the
mple application would be detecting unusual patterns maximum reward. This optimal behaviour is learned
(e.g. markers of fraud) in financial transactions. through interactions with the environment and observa-
• Supervised learning refers to the family of ap- tions of how it responds. An example would be self-dri-
proaches in which the learning is overseen by the label ving cars, which learn by trial and error.

1
An interesting type of neural network that is being used widely at the time of writing is the transformer model. The trans-
former model learns context and thus meaning by tracking relationships in sequential data like the words in this sentence.
2
An interesting sub-class is zero-shot learning, few-shot learning and one-shot learning. These are all techniques that allow a
machine learning model to make predictions or classifications with limited labelled data. The choice of technique depends on
the specific problem and the amount of labelled data available for new categories or labels (classes).

10
 and AI
Over the coming years and decades, data volumes will • Artificial General Intelligence (AGI or “strong AI”):
continue to grow, as the number of handheld and online machine intelligence meeting the full range of human
devices grows exponentially and the internet of things performance across any task; and:
becomes a reality. The sheer volume of data that this • Artificial Superintelligence (ASI): machine intelli-
will create is difficult to comprehend. Future avenues for gence that exceeds human intelligence across any task.
analytics and advanced computational techniques for
data processing and fusion include increasingly capable Data science is driven by the increasing digitisation of
methods from artificial intelligence, specifically machine almost all aspects of how we work and live, aided by
learning, as discussed above. massive commercial investments, as well as the availabi-
lity of publicly available training data sets and tools for
A logical sequence along which progress on AI will unfold algorithm development and testing. The move to cloud
can be separated into three tiers: platforms has facilitated a massively accelerated impro-
vement in data availability and data access.
• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI or “narrow AI”):
Developments in artificial intelligence are driven by very
machine intelligence that equals or exceeds human intel-
strong commercial investments, given the recent rapid
ligence for specific tasks such as chess, high-frequency
advances in the field.
trading or indeed any specialised automatic systems de-
livering performances beyond human reach;

IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES

AND CHALLENGES:

In the table below, we summarise which functions are generally provided by the use
of data science and artificial intelligence, which impact metrics for these functions are
expected to improve and a number of example applications that these improvements
would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION POSSIBLE FUTURE EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

OF DATA SCIENCE & AI IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED

IMPROVEMENTS E.G. IN: • PREDICTION OF EXTREME

DATA SCIENCE • DESCRIPTIVE CAPABILITIES. WEATHER EVENTS.
• PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES. • PREDICTION OF CONFLICTS

IMPROVEMENTS E.G. IN:

• PERCEPTION. • PROCESSING AND
• NATURAL LANGUAGE UNDERSTANDING OF TEXT.
AI - PARSING INPUTS
PROCESSING. • GESTURE MEANING
• TAKING CUES FROM SOCIAL RECOGNITION.
INTELLIGENCE.

IMPROVEMENTS E.G. IN:

• PLANNING AND SCHEDULING
• KNOWLEDGE
AI - PLANNING FOR LOGISTICS.
REPRESENTATION.
& EXECUTING OUTPUTS • ASSISTED DECISION-MAKING,
• PRIORITISATION.
E.G. IN BATTLE.
• PLANNING.

11
Data science
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main — ENVIRONMENTAL:
uncertainties and challenges of data science and
• Impact: Data science and artificial intelligence can
artificial intelligence for each category:
have both positive and negative environmental impacts.
The data centres needed for AI and data science applica-
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
tions consume significant amounts of energy and the pro-
• Impact: Data science and artificial intelligence have duction of hardware components such as servers, GPUs
the potential to reshape labour markets and employment and specialised chips requires natural resources and
patterns. Although they create new job opportunities in generates waste. Data science and artificial intelligence
technology sectors, they also cause displacement and can also be used to address environmental challenges,
changes in job requirements in other sectors. Data-driven facilitate climate modelling and even enable predictive
algorithms can perpetuate biases present in historical models, for example for predicting natural catastrophes.
data, leading to discriminatory outcomes. The integration • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
of artificial intelligence into daily life (e.g. chatbots, vir- energy efficiency of the data centres and computing
tual assistants) affects human-computer interactions and infrastructure used for training artificial intelligence
social dynamics. evolve?
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
benefits of artificial intelligence adoption be distributed — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
across society? How will trust and acceptance of artificial
• Impact: The proliferation of data collection and analy-
intelligence technologies influence their adoption? How
sis raises concerns about privacy and surveillance. Artifi-
can artificial intelligence be applied ethically? How can
cial intelligence- and data-driven technologies often rely
users of AI be trained to be critical of AI output?
on personal data, leading to debates about the balance
between individual privacy rights and societal benefits.
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
Advanced artificial intelligence is often seen as high risk
• Impact: Data science and artificial intelligence will or even an existential threat to humanity. Efforts to effec-
have a significant impact on almost all sectors, provi- tively regulate it will be necessary.
ding improvements along the value chain. Embedding • Main uncertainties and challenges: What is the
data science and artificial intelligence into engineering, best way of addressing concerns about data ownership,
operations and business workflows can reinvent product usage rights and compensation mechanisms? How can
development and use. disputes over intellectual property rights related to artifi-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How can the cial intelligence technologies be resolved? How can fake
data used for training artificial intelligence be improved? information generated by artificial intelligence be dealt
How will explainable artificial intelligence be further de- with?
veloped? How will the scalability and performance of ar-
tificial intelligence develop with increasing data volumes WEAK SIGNALS:
and model complexities? How will the energy efficiency
› MIT researchers have introduced technology that en-
of AI algorithms develop?
ables deep learning model training on edge devices like
mobile phones, achieving up to 15-times faster training
— ECONOMIC:
times on some hardware platforms without compromi-
• Impact: Data science and artificial intelligence can sing accuracy.
have a groundbreaking economic impact. This can be › Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences are
due to productivity gains resulting from the automation utilising AI to accurately recognise and classify social be-
of routine tasks, augmenting employees’ capabilities and haviour in animals. This technology can identify an indi-
freeing them up to focus on more stimulating and higher vidual from several almost identical-looking animals and
value-adding work. Capital-intensive sectors such as works across species.
manufacturing and transport are likely to see the largest › South Dakota State University researchers have
productivity gains. Shifts in consumer demand, behaviour pioneered AI-based model predicting share price move-
and consumption emanating from artificial intelligence ments and volatility.
are also important. Consumers will be attracted to higher › Portcast, a logistics start-up, has devised a predictive
levels of quality and more personalised products and ser- analytics solution that utilises data from various sources
vices, but will also have the chance to make better use to cut freight costs by optimising transport routes and
of their time. taking into consideration factors such as weather, tides
• Main uncertainties and challenges: What will be and wind speed.
the net effect of artificial intelligence on employment? › Google Deep Mind is developing an artificial intelli-
Which sectors will be affected most? Will there be market gence model to design millions of new materials for va-
concentration and reduced competition due to the do- rious applications.
minance of large tech companies in artificial intelligence
research and development?

12
 and AI
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS: INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
› Robotic and autonomous systems: The increased use › Changing nature of work: Data science and artifi-
of intelligent, widely distributed, ubiquitous, cheap, inter- cial intelligence will have a groundbreaking impact on
connected sensors and autonomous entities (physical or the nature of work, eliminating some jobs while creating
virtual) will lead to large volumes of data. Data science others.
and artificial intelligence methods can both take advan- › Changing security paradigm: Data science and arti-
tage of this wealth of data and also enable its analysis. ficial intelligence will become another tool in geopolitical
› Immersive technologies: Data science and artificial competition.
intelligence will play a significant role in the develop- › Diversification of education and learning: Data
ment of immersive technologies. Furthermore, the latter science and artificial intelligence will provide both signi-
will be another source of rich data to assist in the further ficant challenges and also opportunities for future edu-
development of the former. cational systems.
› Quantum technologies: Quantum computing can be › Widening inequalities: Data science and artificial in-
used in the longer term to train new, more capable, quan- telligence could drive inequality by replacing increasing
tum artificial intelligence algorithms. amounts of labour with smart machines.
› Sensor technologies: The miniaturisation and distri- › Growing consumption: Data science and artificial in-
bution of sensors in all aspects of human activity will pro- telligence will drive increasing levels of consumption by
vide a trove of data for further exploitation and enable offering more personalised products and by increasing
digital twins of real objects. the free time of consumers.
› New space technologies: Space-generated data, e.g.
from Earth observation, will be a key source of data. Arti-
ficial intelligence methods can be used in space applica-
tions, e.g. in spacecraft design and operational autonomy.
› Materials and digital production: Data science and
artificial intelligence are two of the main enablers of no-
vel digital production methods.
› Renewable energy and resilience: Data and artificial
intelligence can assist in the deeper study of the climate
and in mitigating the effects of climate change.
› Human enhancement technologies: Human enhan-
cement technologies will be both provide a large volume
of data and also make use of many advanced artificial
intelligence methods.
› Cyber technologies: Storage and computational ca-
pabilities for the rapidly increasing amounts of data in
the future will arguably be the main factor in the expan-
sion of cyberspace. Artificial intelligence methods can
also be used in advanced cybersecurity applications.
› Digital communication: Digital communication will
be key in gathering and effectively communicating the
growing amounts of data.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— De Spiegeleire, S. et al., “Artificial intelligence and the future of defence”, The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, Report, 2017,
https://hcss.nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Artificial-Intelligence-and-the-Future-of-Defense.pdf
— Reding, D.F. et al., “Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040», NATO Science & Technology Organisation, Report, 2020,
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/4/pdf/190422-ST_Tech_Trends_Report_2020-2040.pdf
— Torres Torres, M. et al., “The Dstl Biscuit Book, Artificial Intelligence, Data Science and (mostly) Machine Learning”,
University of Nottingham and DSTL, Pamphlet, 2019,
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5de69d6bed915d015e20f548/The_Dstl_Biscuit_Book_WEB.pdf
— Manyika, J. et al., “Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity”, McKinsey Global Institute, Report, 2011,
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/big%20data%20the%20next%20
frontier%20for%20innovation/mgi_big_data_full_report.pdf
— Alexieva, S. et al., “Unlocking the power of Data and AI”, Accenture, Presentation, 2023,
https://www.accenture.com/content/dam/accenture/final/accenture-com/imagery/Accenture-Unlocking-The-Power-of-Data-and-AI.pdf
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

13
 Immersive

2.2 IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGIES MERGING THE PHYSICAL AND THE VIRTUAL

WORLD TO TRANSFORM EXPERIENCES

DESCRIPTION: • Off-body sensors allow for more precise recreation of

elements of the physical world in virtual spaces.
Immersive technologies can enable a deeply enga- • Haptic devices convey the sense of touch to the user
ging, multisensory, digital experience. Augmented rea- with vibrations to augment virtual experiences.
lity (AR) overlays digitally created content on the user’s • Holograms and volumetric video diffract light
real-world environment. Virtual reality (VR) creates a across multiple wavefronts to display high-quality 3D re-
fully rendered digital environment that replaces the user’s presentations that can be seen without using a headset.
real-world environment. Mixed reality (MR) seamlessly • Electromyography is a neurotechnology that detects
blends the user’s real-world environment with digitally and records electrical activity from muscles to control
created content in a way that allows both environments movement and manipulates objects in virtual spaces.
to coexist and interact. Extended reality (XR) is an umb- • Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) use mi-
rella term that encompasses AR, VR and MR. dair ultrasonic waves to allow users to physically feel tac-
Examples of augmented technology devices include pro- tile experiences without any wearables.
jections from phone devices, windshields on cars, and
glasses. Examples of virtual reality technology devices Applications of immersive technologies can be broadly
include headsets for a fully immersive virtual reality ex- categorised as follows:
perience. • Product design and development: Digital reality
can offer knowledge workers access to specific informa-
Immersive technologies depend on the following key tion at the exact moment they need it and at any stage
components: of the design and development lifecycle. For example,
• On-body sensors track and identify users and their by wearing augmented reality glasses, construction en-
limb movements, as well as the objects around them. gineers can see a detailed description of a project’s elec-
trical and plumbing parts on-site.

14
• Collaboration and cooperation: Immersive techno- reality could gain wider adoption and more demanding
logies can make it possible for workers to engage with, industrial use cases could be implemented. In the longer
share information with, and support colleagues in other term, consumer augmented reality sets shrink and use
locations. For example, engineers sitting in a regional of- cases proliferate, with a seamless digital layer acting as
fice will be able to see what field workers see. an overlay to the real world.
• Learning and training: Immersive technologies can
place trainees in lifelike situations that would be too ex- In the near term, virtual reality offers limited virtual wor-
pensive or logistically impossible to recreate in real life. lds and is manipulated using external peripherals that
Variations include treating psychological issues such as limit immersion. In the medium term, high-fidelity and
post-traumatic stress disorder and phobias. comfortable virtual reality is available at scale. In the
• Enhanced consumer experience: Use cases of im- long term, virtual worlds in virtual reality are almost in-
mersive technologies are emerging across the retail, tra- distinguishable from real life and haptics have improved
vel-hospitality-leisure, and real estate sectors to bring to give a realistic sense of feeling across the body.
potential customers closer to the respective products,
services and experiences. The development of immersive technologies is driven by
significant funding from the commercial sector. Further
In the near term, augmented reality could exist mostly as social and technological factors driving this trend in-
a proof of concept, constrained within narrowly defined clude the increased use of smartphones and connected
environments and only overlaying low-fi visuals over the devices, the rising adoption of 5G networks and the need
real world. In the middle term, consumer augmented for more collaboration platforms to enable remote work.

IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES

AND CHALLENGES:

The table below summarises the functions that are generally provided by the use of im-
mersive technologies, which impact metrics for these functions are expected to improve
and a number of example applications that these improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION POSSIBLE FUTURE EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

OF IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGIES IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED

• COST SAVINGS.
• IMPLEMENTATION FOR THE
• INCREASED EFFICIENCY.
PRODUCT DESIGN DESIGN OF A NEW SATELLITE.
• NEW METHODS TO ANALYSE
AND DEVELOPMENT • DIGITAL TWINS OF PRODUCTS
DATA AND GENERATE
FOR VIRTUAL WALKTHROUGHS.
INSIGHTS.

• IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY. • FIELD-WORKER ASSISTANCE.

COLLABORATION
• REDUCED RISK. • SHARED VIRTUAL WHITEBOARDS
AND COOPERATION
• CROSS-GEOGRAPHIC FOR BRAINSTORMING.

• STRONGER RETENTION
OF MATERIALS.
• IMMERSIVE SEARCH
• REDUCED RISK.
LEARNING AND TRAINING AND RESCUE TRAINING.
• COST SAVINGS.
• DRIVING LESSONS.
• IMPROVED THERAPEUTIC
OUTCOMES.

• BETTER CUSTOMER
• VIRTUAL CONFERENCES
ENGAGEMENT.
AND EVENTS.
ENHANCED CONSUMER • INCREASED MARKETING
• VIRTUAL SHOPPING MALL.
EXPERIENCE OPPORTUNITIES.
• INCREASED SALES

15
Immersive
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main — ENVIRONMENTAL:
uncertainties and challenges of immersive tech-
• Impact: Further advancements in immersive techno-
nologies for each category:
logies will require a significant amount of computing
power to establish the environments. This will have a
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
potentially large impact on energy use and therefore a
• Impact: New products and services will be introduced significant environmental impact.
by immersive technologies, engaging consumers in new • Main uncertainties and challenges: Will immersive
ways and enhancing customer experiences. For example, technologies make it to market before energy optimisa-
immersive technologies might become the leading plat- tion takes place? How will the energy efficiency of com-
form for video streaming, with the attendant impacts on puting hardware and infrastructure used for immersive
existing platforms. Immersive technologies might affect technologies evolve?
social interactions, further digitising increasingly larger
parts of them. — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will immersive
• Impact: Immersive technologies could potentially ex-
technologies drive the current trend further towards re-
pand into the political domain and enable more direct
mote work? What will be the
and experiential participation. They also have many po-
tential defence applications, for example in training, lo-
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
gistics and on the battlefield.
• Impact: Immersive technologies can increase produc- • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
tion efficiency in various ways. Virtual rapid prototyping, use of sensitive user data collected by augmented rea-
for example, can make early-stage design amendments lity devices be regulated? How can novel forms of harm,
possible. Digital twins can enable virtual walkthroughs of scams and crime be enabled by augmented realities? To
products under development. In general, the production what extent can immersive reality facilitate the spread of
process can be improved through early-warning-detec- false information?
tion mechanisms, improved quality assurance, etc. Ana-
lytics applied to collected user data can further improve WEAK SIGNALS:
product design.
› Kentucky Fried Chicken places employees in a vir-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will augmented
tual escape room where they must successfully complete
technology ideas remain at the proof-of-concept stage or
a five-step chicken preparation process before they are
will they begin to break through to scale? How will com-
released.
plementing technologies (e.g. miniaturisation, rugged-
› The startup Sophia Technologies aims to establish a
ness, sensor advances, data storage, connectivity) that
metaverse-based “educational city”, catering to students
are required to achieve scale effects in immersive tech-
globally from grades 1 to 12.
nologies evolve? Which applications will achieve wider
› Johns Hopkins University and NVIDIA are collabo-
acceptance and use? How can complex security vulnera-
rating on a 3D reconstruction algorithm to reconstruct
bilities (e.g. cyber threats, data protection) be mitigated?
object shapes from smartphone videos without any addi-
tional input, promising applications in virtual reality.
— ECONOMIC:
› Researchers at Virginia Polytechnic Institute have
• Impact: Costs can be reduced by effective product de- introduced tools to safeguard bystander privacy in real-
velopment, improved processes and improved training, time sensor data by employing eye tracking, near-field
all enabled by immersive technologies. New products microphones and spatial awareness.
and services can engage consumers in new ways and
enhance customer experiences, thus increasing sales and
consumption. Analytics applied to user-collected data
can also be used to drive advertising.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How can a cost
reduction that is required to make more applications
commercially viable and scalable be achieved? Are there
any feasible business models?

16
 technologies
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS: INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
› Data science & AI: Virtual and augmented reality sets › Changing nature of work: Immersive technologies
will generate a significant amount of rich data that can could have a huge impact on the nature of work, for exa-
be further exploited. AI generative methods could be mple enabling rich teleworking.
useful for the generation of virtual objects and worlds in › Diversification of education and learning: Immer-
virtual and augmented reality. sive technologies have the potential to disrupt education
› Quantum technologies: Quantum technologies could and learning by offering remote and immersive learning
conceivably find a role in immersive technology appli- experiences. It could also offer access to extremely per-
cations, for example, to ensure data safety via quantum sonalised and immersive worlds, potentially triggering a
cryptography. retreat into these by an increasing number of people.
› Sensor technologies: Novel, more capable, small, › Growing consumption: Immersive technologies could
and ubiquitous sensors could form part of nearer and offer new ways to buy and consume existing and novel
longer-term immersive technology applications. products and services, for example through immersive
› New space technologies: Immersive technologies virtual shopping.
could become crucial for specific space applications, such
as astronaut training and rich robotic teleoperation.
› New materials and digital production: Immersive
technologies could be a cornerstone of future digital pro-
duction approaches, in particular for product design and
collaborative work. Further, novel materials could enable
lighter and more efficient augmented and virtual reality
sets.
› Renewable energy and resilience: Due to the very
high computational demands anticipated of immersive
technologies, they could have a significant negative im-
pact on energy use and thus the environment.
› Human enhancement technologies: Human enhan-
cement technologies such as brain-computer interfaces
could be a key component of longer-term immersive
technology applications.
› Cyber technologies: Immersive technologies would
arguably be an attractive target for malicious cyber at-
tacks, for example, due to the considerable amount of
personal data they capture.
› Digital communication: 5G and other digital connec-
tivity technologies are central to the further development
of immersive technologies due to their assumed need for
very fast and capable connectivity.
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Immersive tech-
nologies could be a central aspect of human-robotic
cooperation and interaction, as well as of rich robotic
teleoperation.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Corless, K. et al., “Deloitte Insights - Tech Trends 2018”, Deloitte, Report, 2018,
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/Tech-Trends-2018/4109_TechTrends-2018_FINAL.pdf
— Karanjia, B. et al., “Virtual, augmented, and mixed reality for defence and the public sector”, Deloitte, Report, 2019,
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/in/Documents/about-deloitte/in-about-deloitte-Digital%20Reality%20in%20Defence_Final%20print.pdf
— Unknown author, “McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2022 - Immersive-reality technologies”, McKinsey and company, Presentation, 2022,
https://www.mckinsey.com/spContent/bespoke/tech-trends/pdfs/mckinsey-tech-trends-outlook-2022-immersive-reality.pdf
— Unknown author, “Immersive Technologies Foresight Paper”, Digital Regulation Cooperation Forum, Report, 2023,
https://www.drcf.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0027/273195/DRCF-Immersive-Technologies-Foresight-Paper.pdf
— Nieuwenhuizen, L. W. et al., “Immersive technologies - Rathenau Scan”, Rathenau Instituut, Report, 2023,
https://www.rathenau.nl/sites/default/files/2024-01/%28EN%29%20Rathenau%20Instituut%20I%20Scan%20I%20Immersieve%20technolo-
gieen%20Final_LM_schoon.pdf

17
 Quantum

2.3 QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES USING QUANTUM PHYSICS TO ACHIEVE

UNPRECEDENTED CAPABILITIES

DESCRIPTION: ving magnetic resonance imaging. Improved accelerome-

ters could allow for self-contained inertial navigation
Quantum technologies exploit quantum physics and systems, allowing accurate positioning and navigation
associated phenomena at an atomic and sub-atomic le- for very long periods of time in environments where GPS
vel, in particular quantum entanglement and superposi- is not available. A sensitive gravitometer or magneto-
tion. Engineers are now beginning to be able to create meter could also be used for GPS-less positioning and
several types of devices that take advantage of these navigation by taking precise measurements of the local
effects to far exceed the capabilities of existing devices. fields and comparing them with preexisting maps of the
Quantum technologies are often grouped into three Earth’s gravitational and magnetic anomalies. Another
broad categories: quantum sensing, quantum communi- category of sensing technology is quantum imaging. Two
cation and quantum computing. of the most promising applications are known as ghost
imaging and quantum illumination. Ghost imaging uses
Quantum sensing and metrology refers to the ability the unique quantum properties of light to detect distant
to use quantum mechanics to build extremely precise objects using very weak illumination beams. Quantum
sensors. One category of sensing technology includes illumination is conceptually similar, but could provide an
probes that can perform highly sensitive measurements even greater improvement in sensitivity. It can achieve a
of elapsed time, acceleration, rotation, vibrations or elec- performance measurably higher than the best apparatus
tric, magnetic and gravitational fields. Highly precise clo- theoretically possible that does not make use of quantum
cks could have commercial applications, such as verifying mechanics. One proposed use case for this technology is
high-frequency financial trades and dynamically regula- a quantum radar. Furthermore, quantum lidar technolo-
ting a smart electrical grid. Sensitive gravitometers could gy promises improved signal-to-noise-ratio values and
be used for seismographic predictions of earthquakes images in the near future. In addition to entanglement,
and volcano eruptions. Quantum magnetometers could this requires highly sensitive photon detectors and ma-
also have biomedical applications, for example for impro- chine learning methods.

18
Quantum communication methods include applica- Applications that require smaller degrees of controlled
tions to ensure security against eavesdroppers by taking entanglement are therefore more likely to be imple-
advantage of quantum effects to make it physically im- mented sooner. Most quantum sensing applications re-
possible to eavesdrop undetected. Quantum-secure com- quire very little controlled entanglement and are thus
munication is sometimes referred to as “unhackable”, al- considered the closest to deployment. Quantum commu-
though technical subtleties could lead to vulnerabilities. nication is an intermediate case, because some protocols
A longer-term application of quantum communication, use entanglement and some do not. The simplest forms
known as quantum networks (or sometimes a quantum of quantum communication have already been deployed,
internet), could be very secure and could enable distri- but the most advanced and useful forms are still many
buted quantum sensing and computing, among other years away. Quantum computing is the most technologi-
applications that are difficult to predict today. cally challenging case, because it requires a high degree
of entanglement. Some niche applications of quantum
Quantum computing methods could, in theory, perform computers are being explored and these may become
certain computations considerably quicker than is funda- useful within the next few years. However, the most im-
mentally possible with a standard, traditional computer, portant applications are further away.
for specific classes of analytical problems (e.g. optimisa-
tion and simulation). This computational leap would, for Technological developments in quantum technologies are
example, enable us to efficiently solve the mathemati- driving forward the abovementioned quantum technolo-
cal problems underlying classic public key cryptography, gies in the relevant fields of quantum mechanics, quan-
potentially (but not necessarily) rendering current cryp- tum computing, quantum communication and quantum
tographic methods obsolete3. This would pose a serious sensing. This trend is mainly being driven by commercial
security risk for all of the encryption and password pro- interest, however the more security-oriented applications
tection methods currently in use. Other applications take are also being driven by geopolitical competition.
advantage of an improvement in the speed of brute-force
searches of large databases, as well as numerical optimi-
sation. Quantum computers could also potentially lead
to massive improvements in the machine-learning algo-
rithms used in artificial intelligence, with possible ap-
plications of quantum computers for machine learning.
A final, lesser-known potential application of quantum
computers is for the scientific simulation of advanced
materials and biochemistry, including drug discovery.
Since quantum-mechanical effects explain the underlying
physics of these materials, computers that use quantum
mechanics are uniquely well suited to simulate them
computationally.

The performance and engineering difficulty facing a

given quantum technology is quantified by a simple
(though technical) unifying measure, known as quantum
entanglement. In quantum computing, entanglement is
used to create qubits that are connected. When one qubit
is manipulated, it affects the others it is «linked» with.
This allows quantum computers to perform complex cal-
culations incredibly fast, because they can explore many
possibilities at once. Speed, operating power and also the
complexity of realisation increase with more sustained
entanglement. The most powerful potential applications
of quantum technology all require sustained entangle-
ment between multiple particles.

3
Public key cryptography is used for digital signatures, establishing a secret key via an insecure channel and for encrypting
data, among other things. Cryptographic procedures with symmetric keys (secret key cryptography) are only affected to the
extent that the search for the correct key experiences a maximum quadratic acceleration. Doubling the length of the key com-
pensates for this advantage, making symmetric procedures quantum-resistant.

19
Quantum
IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
AND CHALLENGES:

The table below summarises the functions that are generally provided by the use of
quantum technologies, which impact metrics for these functions are expected to improve
and a number of example applications that these improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION POSSIBLE FUTURE EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

OF QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED

• INERTIAL NAVIGATION
ENHANCED SENSITIVITY
SYSTEMS AND MAGNETOMETRY
SENSING FOR:
SYSTEMS FOR NAVIGATING
• TIME.
IN ENVIRONMENTS IN WHICH
• ACCELERATION.
GPS IS NOT AVAILABLE.
• MAGNETIC FIELDS.
QUANTUM SENSING • IMPROVED LIDAR AND RADAR
• ELECTROMAGNETIC
FOR RECONNAISSANCE.
RADIATION.
• FULL-RANGE RADIO-
• ROTATIONS.
FREQUENCY DETECTORS.
• VIBRATIONS.
• TUNNEL AND BUNKER
• PHOTONS.
DETECTION.

USE OF THE QUANTUM • SECURE COMMUNICATIONS

PROPERTIES OF LIGHT FOR: THAT ARE DIFFICULT
QUANTUM COMMUNICATION • INCREASED SECURITY. TO INTERCEPT.
• EAVESDROPPING DETECTION4. • NETWORKING OF QUANTUM
SENSORS AND COMPUTERS.

IMPROVED COMPUTATIONAL
• DESIGN OF ADVANCED
POWER FOR SPECIFIC PROBLEMS
MATERIALS.
SUCH AS:
• BIOCHEMISTRY.
• ATTACKS ON TRADITIONAL
• DRUG DESIGN.
QUANTUM COMPUTING PUBLIC KEY CRYPTOGRAPHY.
• NUMERICAL OPTIMISATION
• OPTIMISATION.
(E.G. FOR LOGISTICS).
• SIMULATIONS.
• BREAKING TRADITIONAL PUBLIC
• CLASSIFICATION.
KEY CRYPTOGRAPHY.
• FACTORISATION.

4
Since there are currently no authentication mechanisms that are secure based on quantum properties, authentication is still
based on traditional approaches. Hence, if traditional authentication can be broken, eavesdropping would be simple. Quantum
communication can therefore be seen to be generally as secure as the weakest link – traditional authentication.

20
 technologies
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main economic benefits. Quantum sensors will likely not be
uncertainties and challenges of quantum tech- less cost-effective than their non-quantum counterparts.
nologies for each category: The latter will remain prevalent for generic applications,
with quantum sensors being used in more targeted ap-
— SOCIO-CULTURAL: plications such as those mentioned above. Quantum
communication will offer significant benefits in transpor-
• Impact: In some conceivable cases, quantum sensing
ting quantum information between quantum computers.
and computing could contribute to the loss of expecta-
Quantum computing has the potential to offer dramatic
tion of privacy in specific scenarios. The new capabilities
returns by replacing a large part of the physical research
of quantum technologies could support a significantly
needed, for example for material or drug development,
improved quality of life, for example by assisting in cli-
with a new class of accurate simulations. New optimisa-
mate change mitigation, drug design and social planning
tion methods enabled by quantum computing could dra-
and decision-making.
matically improve operations in all sectors. In the longer
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will quantum
term, quantum computers could offer a further jump in
technologies such as sensing and decryption/encryption
artificial intelligence capabilities, with all the attendant
have a privacy-enhancing or reducing net effect? What
economic benefits. The applications of quantum compu-
will the magnitude of this effect be?
ting-relevant decryption/encryption could potentially fur-
ther disrupt many sectors. However, a smooth transition
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
towards “quantum-immune” encryption will likely occur,
• Impact: The applications discussed above will have a which will minimise this impact.
wide-ranging impact in a variety of sectors. Quantum re- • Main uncertainties and challenges: What is the
mote sensing and positioning, navigation and timing can economic feasibility of quantum technologies, especially
offer dramatic improvements compared to the current when it comes to wider application and not exclusively
capabilities. This could be a game changer, for example to use in a limited set of specific use cases? What will
for security and military applications (e.g. for navigating be the net economic impact of the decryption/encryption
in environments in which GPS is not available or for very capabilities of quantum technologies?
sensitive reconnaissance). Quantum communications
could potentially offer safer communications, with ap- — ENVIRONMENTAL:
plications in secure high-frequency trading, for example.
• Impact: Ultra-sensitive quantum sensors can concei-
Quantum computing could make traditional public key
vably be used for environment and climate-relevant mea-
cryptography obsolete and at the same time offer in-
surements. More importantly, the advanced simulation
creased security quantum encryption. Any application
capabilities of quantum computing can offer impressive
that relies on traditional public key cryptography would
insights in climate and environmental science, as well as
be significantly affected. Quantum optimisation would
much more reliable weather predictions.
make the solving of previously intractable problems fea-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: To what extent
sible, with applications for example in complex logistics
will the deployment of quantum technologies impact the
decision-making problems. Quantum simulations would
environment? In particular, what will be the energy foot-
allow the simulation of aspects of material design, che-
print of quantum computing?
mical reactions, climate and weather that are currently
only able to be studied in the lab or through observation.
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
The impact of this on the relevant sectors would be tre-
mendous. • Impact: Quantum sensing and navigation are po-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Are high-entan- tentially strategically significant capabilities, including
glement quantum applications feasible? Will more than the negation of the ability to “hide” any military as-
the present few algorithms for quantum computers be set. The combination of quantum communications and
developed? computing can offer more secure communications and
encryption methods for use in security applications, but
— ECONOMIC: quantum decryption could also become destabilising if
decryption capabilities are made available before the re-
• Impact: Quantum sensing and navigation can offer
levant encryption capabilities.
some economic benefits in specific applications; howe-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will quantum
ver, it’s arguably used mainly for military and security
technologies such as sensing and decryption/encryption
applications. Nevertheless, quantum remote sensing can
have a strategically stabilising or destabilising net effect?
provide an impressive increase in the wealth of data
generated by remote sensing, thus providing significant

21
Quantum
WEAK SIGNALS: › New space technologies: Space often serves as the
platform for quantum remote sensing and secure quan-
› Kentucky Fried Chicken places employees in a vir-
tum communications.
tual escape room where they must successfully complete
› New materials and digital production: Quantum
a five-step chicken preparation process before they are
sensing can be useful in the factory of the future. Quan-
released.
tum computing can be a central aspect in the design of
› Multiverse Computing is collaborating with Oxford
new materials and the operational optimisation of pro-
Quantum Circuits and Moody’s Analytics to enhance
duction via advanced quantum simulation and optimisa-
flood risk assessment through quantum technology, ai-
tion.
ming to overcome the limitations posed by the computa-
› Renewable energy and resilience: Quantum com-
tional complexity in current methods.
puting simulations can be used to study previously in-
› Quantagonia, has introduced a cloud-native service,
tractable climate, weather prediction and energy system
facilitating the execution of conventional and quantum
operations problems.
algorithms for artificial intelligence, simulation and op-
› Human enhancement technologies: Quantum com-
timisation, streamlining development and providing an
puting simulation and optimisation capabilities can be
accessible gateway to quantum computing.
used in the design and operation of human enhancement
› Researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory
capabilities.
have created a detector capable of measuring individual
› Cyber technologies: Quantum sensing, communica-
photons at high rates, potentially revolutionising high-
tions and computing infrastructure, as well as these three
speed quantum communication.
combined into the “quantum internet” could be a central
› Quantinuum and HSBC announced a series of explo-
part of the cyber domain in the future.
ratory projects that exploit the potential near- and long-
› Digital communication: Quantum communications
term benefits of quantum computing for banking with
can form a part of the digital communication domain in
specific projects in cybersecurity, fraud detection and na-
the future.
tural language processing.
INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS:
› Changing nature of work: Quantum technologies
› Data science & AI: Data generated by quantum sen-
can offer higher security communications and encryption,
sing could serve as input for data science and artificial
but also ultra-sensitive remote sensing and potentially
intelligence. Advanced quantum computing can be used
disrupting decryption capabilities, although a transition
to generate even more capable artificial intelligence.
to quantum-secure encryption is already underway.
Conversely, data science and artificial intelligence could
› Climate change and environmental degradation:
be used in the research and design of quantum techno-
Quantum computing can offer potentially groundbrea-
logies.
king capabilities for climate simulation, thus helping with
› Immersive Technologies: Quantum sensing and com-
climate change study and mitigation.
puting can conceivably enhance immersive technology,
› Shifting health challenges: Quantum computing si-
e.g. by potentially contributing towards making a synthe-
mulation can help in the design of new drugs, materials
tic environment completely realistic.
and medical devices.
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Quantum sen-
sors can be applied, for example, for the navigation of
autonomous systems in environments in which GPS is
not available. Quantum computing can be used, for exa-
mple, to optimise the operation of large-scale robotic and
autonomous systems.
› Sensor technologies: Quantum sensing is an impor-
tant class of new sensing capabilities.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Reding, D.F. et al., “Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040», NATO Science & Technology Organisation, Report, 2020,
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/4/pdf/190422-ST_Tech_Trends_Report_2020-2040.pdf
— Parker, E. et al., “Commercial and Military Applications and Timelines for Quantum Technology”, RAND corp., Report, 2021,
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA1400/RRA1482-4/RAND_RRA1482-4.pdf
— Mohr, N. et al., “Quantum Technology Monitor”, McKinsey & Co., Report, 2023,
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/quantum%20technology%20sees%20
record%20investments%20progress%20on%20talent%20gap/quantum-technology-monitor-april-2023.pdf
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

22
 Sensor

2.4 SENSOR TECHNOLOGIES CAPTURING DATA TO MAKE SMARTER DECISIONS

AND TO ENHANCE EFFICIENCY

DESCRIPTION: Modern sensors are often found as part of an integrated

package. These smart sensors usually comprise of one or
A sensor generally refers to a device that converts a more sensors along with an integrated set of modules,
physical measurement into a signal that is read by an for example for energy storage and harvesting, commu-
observer or an instrument. nications or data processing.
Sensors can measure a wide variety of inputs, including Sensor technologies are advancing along three general
mechanical, optical, chemical and biological. Sensors vary paths of improvement:
by how they interface with the sample or measurand: • Enhanced sensing performance in terms of, for exa-
• Contact sensors require contact with the input sample. mple, accuracy5, sensitivity6, precision7 or the ability to
• Non-contact sensors allow indirect or remote sample operate in different environmental conditions.
sensing. • Miniaturisation of the sensors themselves as well as
• Sample-based sensors require an invasive collection the connected electronics in the case of smart sensors.
of the object under analysis. • Distribution, networking and connectivity, with
Sensors can be passive and simply respond to inputs, or increasingly larger numbers of sensors distributed more
active and have additional components that interact with densely and/or widely, as well as being better networked.
the input sample to enable a sensor response. A non-exhaustive and exemplary list of advanced sen-
sor technologies that offer improvements along one or
more of these paths by using different approaches is
discussed below.

5
The maximum difference that will exist between the actual value and the indicated value at the output of the sensor.
6
The minimum input of physical parameters that will create a detectable output change.
7
The reproducibility of a measurement: if exactly the same value was measured a number of times, an ideal sensor would
output exactly the same value every time.

23
Sensor
MEMS sensors (sensors based on microelectromecha- Optical fibre sensors use optical fibre either as the sen-
nical systems) have been the main contributor to the sing element (intrinsic sensors) or as a means of relaying
changes in the scale and functionality of sensors over the signals to the processing electronics (extrinsic sensors).
last decade. The use of MEMS sensors in smartphones Their attractive characteristics include immunity to elec-
marked a turning point in MEMS sensor production and tromagnetic interference, low power consumption, a
technology advancements. As a result of the MEMS revo- small size and high levels of sensitivity.
lution, there has been a significant reduction in the size, Lab-on-chip sensors perform various, often complex and
cost and power usage of common sensors, which has had demanding, laboratory operations on a miniaturised
a profound impact on the kinds of sensing formats and scale. Their size can range from a few millimetres to a
architectures available. Today, MEMS and the associated few square centimetres.
technologies are used in advanced sensing platforms and
instruments whose capabilities are much more advanced Hyperspectral remote sensors collect image data si-
than human senses and perception. multaneously in dozens or hundreds of narrow, adjacent
spectral bands. In contrast, common multispectral re-
Nanotechnology-enabled sensors may offer signifi- mote sensors produce images with a few relatively broad
cant advantages over conventional sensors. The unique wavelength bands. This rich hyperspectral image data
properties of nanoscale materials make them ideal for can be compared with field or laboratory-derived data
sensing, offering impressive improvements in perfor- to recognise and map surface materials such as particu-
mance. For example, the sensitivity may be increased due lar types of vegetation or minerals associated with ore
to tailored conduction properties, the limits of detection deposits.
may be lowered and infinitely small quantities of samples
can be analysed. At the extreme nanoscale limit, there Smart dust comprises smart sensors that can be packed
exists the potential to even detect a single molecule or into a cubic-millimetre mote (a small particle or speck) to
atom. The benefits of nanotechnology can be further le- form the basis of integrated, massively distributed sensor
veraged to manufacture highly miniaturised sensors, for networks. Due to its small size, substantial functionality,
example, nanoparticles can be used as sensitive biologi- connectivity and anticipated low cost, smart dust could
cal sensors. be used to provide more information from more places
less intrusively.
Printed and flexible sensors include flexible,
stretchable and generally mechanically adaptable sen- The evolution of these sensor technologies in the future
sors. They can withstand mechanical deformation wi- will offer progress along the three paths mentioned
thout degrading their performance or being destroyed. above, offering increasingly capable, small, distributed
Flexible sensors enable measurements on dynamic and/ and networked sensors. The level at which a sensor tech-
or shape-changing objects and large-area non-flat sur- nology will have to satisfy one or more of these metrics
faces where rigid sensors typically struggle. Flexible and at what levels will depend on the use case.
sensors are lightweight thanks to the use of organic ma-
terials and/or thin-film form factors, thus potentially ena- Sensors are central to many key activities in practically
bling improved integration, distribution and application. every sector. Advancements in sensor technologies are
Furthermore, some flexible sensors can be manufactured thus driven by the increasing performance and cost de-
using low-cost materials and large-scale processes such mands of these activities.
as printing.

Bioinspired sensors take inspiration from basic concepts

behind sensory physiology. They do so either by direct
(emulating the biological functions closely) or analogous
(in a more abstract form) mimicry. Examples include che-
mical sensors mimicking the human tongue and optical
neuromorphic sensors mimicking the morphology of the
human eye and the neurological behaviour of human vi-
sual processing, Benefits include increased performance
and reduced power use.

24
 technologies
IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
AND CHALLENGES:

The table below summarises the functions that are generally provided by the use of sen-
sor technologies, which impact metrics for these functions are expected to improve and
a number of example applications that these improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION POSSIBLE FUTURE EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

OF SENSOR TECHNOLOGIES IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED

• INDUSTRIAL ROBOTICS.
• REDUCTION IN SIZE, COST • AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES.
MEMS SENSORS
AND POWER USAGE. • MICROPHONES.
• NAVIGATION SENSORS.

• INCREASED SENSOR • BIOMEDICAL SENSING.

NANOTECHNOLOGY-ENABLED
PERFORMANCE. • HIGH-PRECISION
SENSORS
• INCREASED MINIATURISATION. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING.

• WEARABLE HEALTH
QUANTUM COMPUTING • IMPROVED INTEGRATION
MONITORING.
PRINTED AND FLEXIBLE ON FLEXIBLE SURFACES.
• SMART PACKAGING.
SENSORS • LOWER COST.
• STRAIN GAUGES.

• LOW POWER,
• IMPROVED PERFORMANCE. HIGH-FREQUENCY OPTICAL
BIOINSPIRED SENSORS • REDUCED POWER USAGE. SENSING FOR FAST ROBOTICS.
• “ARTIFICIAL NOSES”
FOR WASTE SORTING.

• REDUCED POWER USAGE. • STRUCTURAL HEALTH

• INCREASED SENSOR MONITORING.
PERFORMANCE. • TELECOMMUNICATIONS SIGNAL
OPTICAL FIBRE SENSORS
• IMMUNITY TO QUALITY MONITORING.
ELECTROMAGNETIC • ACOUSTIC SENSORS
INTERFERENCE. FOR PERIMETER SURVEILLANCE.

• MEDICAL TESTING
• INTEGRATION OF COMPLEX
AND DIAGNOSTICS IN REMOTE
LAB-ON-CHIP SENSORS LABORATORY FUNCTIONS
SETTINGS.
ON A MINIATURISED CHIP.
• CLINICAL CHEMISTRY MINIKITS.

HYPERSPECTRAL REMOTE • MINERAL EXPLORATION.

• NOVEL SENSING CAPABILITIES.
SENSORS • PRECISION AGRICULTURE.

• SECURITY AND DEFENCE-

• INCREASED MINIATURISATION. RELEVANT SURVEILLANCE.
• REDUCED POWER USAGE. • DISASTER MONITORING.
SMART DUST
• INCREASED DISTRIBUTION • DIGITAL TWIN
AND CONNECTIVITY. OF THE ENVIRONMENT,
BATTLEFIELD REPRESENTATION.

25
Sensor
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main — ENVIRONMENTAL:
uncertainties and challenges of sensor technolo-
• Impact: Environmental sensors can continuously mo-
gies for each category:
nitor air and water quality, pollution levels, greenhouse
gases and other environmental parameters.
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
• Impact: Sensors can make technology personal by energy and resource efficiency of sensors evolve? How
being included in numerous everyday objects, consumer will sensor deployment and disposal impact ecosystems
electronics and wearable devices. Sensors further in- (e.g. pollution)?
crease safety in all aspects of social life, from leisure acti-
vities such as driving to working in an industrial setting. — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
Finally, sensors enable scientists to study environments,
• Impact: The proliferation of sensors could conceivably
materials, biological systems and the universe itself in
be useful in the monitoring of the adherence to various
greater detail than ever before.
types of laws and regulations, both national and inter-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: To what extent
national.
will society accept widespread sensor deployment and
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How can ques-
what are the ethical implications? How can concerns
tions about data ownership, consent and responsible use
about privacy, data ownership and surveillance be
be addressed? How should the privacy of data recorded
addressed?
by sensor technologies be regulated? How would geo-
political tensions affect the technological and resource
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
inputs needed for the further development of sensor
• Impact: The performance, miniaturisation and connec- technologies?
tivity of sensor technologies are enabling them to have
a huge impact in a large number of sectors. In the auto-
motive industry, for example, modern vehicles are packed
with sensors for safety and performance. Sensors have
also revolutionised the capabilities of modern consumer
electronics and are indispensable for monitoring and
controlling industrial processes. The growth of low-cost
microsensors has enabled the internet of things, allowing
connectivity and the exchange of data between billions
of objects and devices.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How will
sensor performance and miniaturisation evolve? How
will the secondary capabilities of smart sensors (power,
communications, computing) evolve? Will novel sensor
technologies be able to be produced and deployed on a
large-scale basis?

— ECONOMIC:
• Impact: Automation and process optimisation enabled
by sensors can improve speed, precision and efficiency
within manufacturing technology, healthcare, agricultu-
re and other domains. This in turn increases productivity
levels and the economic potential. The vast amount of
rich data collected by such sensors can also be fed into
a “data economy”, producing value for the numerous
stakeholders participating in it.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will there be
adequate demand for specific specialised types of sen-
sors? Which new data-based business models could
emerge based on novel sensors?

26
 technologies
WEAK SIGNALS: › New materials and digital production: Sensors are
a central component of digital production approaches.
› Researchers from the University of Chicago, the US
› Renewable energy and resilience: Miniaturised, networ-
Department of Energy and the University of Wis-
ked and capable future sensors could be instrumental in
consin-Milwaukee have created a method for the mass
environmental monitoring.
production of graphene-based sensors that detect lead,
› Human enhancement technologies: Sensor techno-
mercury and E. coli in water.
logies (e.g. flexible biometric sensors) play a large role in
› Researchers at Penn State University have devised
human enhancement technologies.
an electronic tongue that uses graphene-based chemi-
› Cyber technologies: Future networks of smart sen-
transistors as taste buds to recognise gas and chemical
sors could form an important part of cyberspace.
molecules.
› Digital communication: Future networks of smart
› Kaunas University of Technology researchers have
sensors will make use of several connectivity technolo-
devised gravimetric sensors to detect greenhouse gases
gies, such as 5G.
such as carbon dioxide and methane, offering greater
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Sensors could be
sensitivity and lower energy consumption than electro-
mounted on robots, either as payloads (e.g. hyperspec-
chemical sensors.
tral imagers) or to provide assistance in operations (e.g.
› Canadian space data company Wyvern intends to
MEMS accelerometers).
launch a satellite programme, employing hyperspectral
imaging to provide farmers with real-time high-resolu-
tion data on soil moisture, plant growth and weather-in-
INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
duced damage.
› Aggravating resource scarcity: Sensor technologies
can help with the search for and identification of scarce
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS: resources or minerals.
› Changing security paradigm: Sensor technologies
› Data science & AI: An increased number of more ca-
can be used for surveillance or defence applications.
pable and distributed sensors in the future could produce
› Continuing urbanisation: Sensor technologies provi-
a trove of data relevant to data science and AI.
de data for numerous smart city applications.
› Immersive technologies: Certain types of sensors, such
› Climate change and environmental degradation:
as flexible sensors or MEMS, are key components of im-
Sensor technologies can be used for important applica-
mersive technologies.
tions in environmental monitoring (e.g. smart dust).
› Quantum technologies: Quantum sensing is used in a
› Shifting health challenges: Sensor technologies
number of sensing technologies, mainly photonics.
can play an important role in medical applications, for
› New space technologies: Certain sensors are
example via flexible wearable sensors, nanosensors for
mounted on spacecraft, either as payloads (e.g. hypers-
biosensing, and nanomedicine.
pectral imagers) or to provide assistance in spacecraft
operations (e.g. MEMS accelerometers).

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— McGrath, M. et al., «Sensor technologies – Healthcare, wellness and environmental applications”, Apress Open, Book, 2013,
https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/28153/1001841.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
— Webster, J. et al., “The measurement, instrumentation, and sensors handbook”, CRC Press/IEEE Press, Book, 1999,
http://materias.df.uba.ar/l2aa2020c1/files/2012/07/Measurement-Instrumentation-Sensors.pdf
— Pilkington, B., “Developing Cost-Effective Sensors for Mass Markets: The Issues”, AZO Sensors, Editorial feature, 2023,
https://www.azosensors.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=2807
— Unknown author, “The Future of Sensors – Protecting worker health through sensor technologies”, AIHA, Report, 2016,
https://aiha-assets.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/AIHA/resources/Get-Involved/AIHA_Future-of-Sensors_web_updated.pdf
— Mendez, A. et al., “Overview of fibre optic sensors for NDT applications”, IV NDT Panamerican Conference, Buenos Aires, 2007,
https://www.ndt.net/article/panndt2007/papers/96.pdf
— Smith, R., “Introduction to hyperspectral imaging”, MicroImages Inc., Report, 2012,
https://www.microimages.com/documentation/Tutorials/hyprspec.pdf
— Kalantar-Zadeh, K. et al., “Nanotechnology-enabled sensors”, Springer Publishing, Book, 2008,
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-0-387-68023-1
— Unknown author, “Lab on a chip”, Rohini College of Engineering and Technology, Pamphlet,
https://www.rcet.org.in/uploads/academics/rohini_54133274564.pdf
— “Smart dust: communicating with a cubic-millimeter computer”, Computer, January 2001, pp. 44-51, vol. 34, 2001,
https://resenv.media.mit.edu/classarchive/MAS961/readings/SmartDust.pdf
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

27
 New space

2.5 NEW SPACE TECHNOLOGIES THE SPACE RACE 2.0 – THE NEXT GIANT
LEAP FOR HUMANKIND

DESCRIPTION:

Space is generally considered to begin 90–100 km (the In the longer term (the next couple of decades), the in-
Kármán line) above sea level. Space technologies exploit frastructure may be deployed to enable the sustainable
the unique operational environment of space, including presence of humanity in space. Such capabilities would
the freedom of action, the global field of view, speed and include:
the freedom of access. However, space technologies must • Resource extraction in space could be used to
also be content with the unique operational environment “feed” a space-based economy, or to return to Earth.
of space, including near-vacuum, micro-gravity isolation • Space-based manufacturing could take advantage
and extreme environments (temperature, vibration and of conditions in space, for example microgravity to en-
sound during launch, and pressure). able the production of advanced products that cannot be
In the near term (multiple years to a decade), advances otherwise manufactured on Earth easily, or even common
in space technology can enable groundbreaking applica- products for use in space.
tions in a multitude of sectors on Earth. Examples include:
• Positioning, navigation and timing to support autono- A complex and populous space-based ecosystem could
mous vehicles. be established, comprising different satellites, habitats,
• Earth observation systems to provide real-time input research facilities, in-orbit refuelling stations and facto-
to advanced agriculture. ries.
• Satellite constellations offering connectivity to en-
able the internet of things.

28
In the even longer term (within this century), such in- space, advances in miniaturisation, standardisation and
frastructure and ecosystems could enable humanity to production at a scale that enables the deployment of
truly establish itself and expand in space and provi- mega-constellations and swarms, autonomous systems
de abundance on Earth. and robotics to facilitate the operation and utilisation
This increasing viability of space applications is enabled of these advanced space systems, and the introduction
by disruptive changes in the space domain driven by of technologies from adjacent fields (e.g. artificial intel-
technological and other factors. These factors include de- ligence, advanced manufacturing, quantum communica-
creasing launch costs and increasing ease of access to tions, etc.).

IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES

AND CHALLENGES:

The table below summarises the functions that are generally provided by the use of new
space technologies, which impact metrics for these functions are expected to improve
and a number of example applications that these improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION POSSIBLE FUTURE EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

OF NEW SPACE TECHNOLOGIES IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED

• INCREASED NAVIGATION
• PRECISION AGRICULTURE.
POSITIONING, NAVIGATION ACCURACY.
• THE INDUSTRIAL INTERNET
AND TIMING • INCREASED SERVICE
OF THINGS.
AVAILABILITY.

• INCREASED SPATIAL,
TEMPORAL AND SPECTRAL • REAL-TIME MONITORING
RESOLUTION OF DATA. OF ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRIAL
EARTH OBSERVATION • BETTER INSIGHT EXTRACTION ACTIVITY.
FROM DATA. • PREDICTIVE MODELS THEREOF.
• INCREASED AVAILABILITY
OF DATA.

• GLOBAL INTERNET.
• INCREASED AVAILABILITY.
• “UNBREAKABLE» QUANTUM
COMMUNICATIONS • BETTER AFFORDABILITY.
COMMUNICATIONS
• INCREASED SECURITY.
FOR FINANCIAL APPLICATIONS.

• ASTEROID MINING
FOR KEY METALS.
• THE CAPABILITY TO EXTRACT • SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER
RESOURCES RESOURCES AND MANUFACTURE
TO PROVIDE POWER TO EARTH.
AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTS IN SPACE FOR USE IN
• MANUFACTURING OF
SPACE OR TO RETURN TO EARTH.
ELECTRONICS IN MICROGRAVITY.

RESOURCES • ESTABLISH (SEMI-)

• ORBITAL HOTELS.
AND MANUFACTURING PERMANENT SETTLEMENT
• LUNAR BASES.
EXPLORATION AND SETTLEMENT IN SPACE.

29
New space
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main — ENVIRONMENTAL:
uncertainties and challenges of new space tech-
• Impact: Improved Earth observation capabilities as
nologies for each category:
described above can offer a tool for monitoring and miti-
gating the effects of climate change.
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
• Main uncertainties and challenges: To what extent
• Impact: Space can become a new field of human ex- will new space activities impact the environment (e.g. the
pansion and cultural activity, from space tourism in the effect of launch exhaust on the upper atmosphere)?
near term to the permanent settlement of space in the
longer term. — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will there ever
• Impact: Improved Earth observation capabilities as
be enough social “demand” for more than the practical
described above can offer a tool for ensuring compliance
applications of space?
with various laws and regulations. Space might become
a domain of conflict in an increasingly contested geopo-
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
litical environment.
• Impact: Any technology that depends on the above • Main uncertainties and challenges: Will space
functions will be impacted. An increase in the positio- remain a relatively stable and peaceful domain or will
ning, navigation and timing performance will for example it become a field of conflict? What will be the effect of
enable precision agriculture and the industrial internet increasing conflict in space on its civilian use? Will as-
of things. The spatial and temporal resolution of Earth pects of space use, e.g. space debris, ever be adequately
observation data as well as its availability will increase. regulated?
This, in conjunction with artificial intelligence approaches
to take advantage of this data, will enable many geo-
data-relevant applications, from agriculture to climate
change mitigation, and weather forecasting. This combi-
nation can even result in the creation of predictive mo-
dels. Communication constellations will offer truly global,
permanent, and affordable connectivity. This will enable
capabilities such as global access to cheap internet and
the industrial internet of things. In combination with
quantum technologies, this may enable “unbreakable”
communications, for example for financial applications.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will the re-
quired space technologies ever become competitive
enough to enable these applications, especially relative
to Earth-based alternatives?

— ECONOMIC:
• Impact: Improved space services such as the ones
mentioned above will have a large positive economic im-
pact by improving specific economic activities on Earth,
such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and finance.
Space services can also help to mitigate the effects of cli-
mate change, thereby reducing the economic harm they
cause. In the longer term, space can offer a new field of
economic activity, e.g. the use of space-based resources
or even the settlement of cis-lunar space and other celes-
tial bodies. for the numerous stakeholders participating
in it.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will space-
based use cases ever become financially competitive,
especially relative to Earth-based alternatives? How im-
portant will "new space" companies and start-ups beco-
me and will "old space" companies become more or less
important (or even maintain the status quo)?

30
 technologies
WEAK SIGNALS: INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
› Prada and Axiom Space are designing a space suit. › Climate change and environmental degradation:
› Varda Space Industries is set to develop a production Space is key for climate-relevant Earth observation activi-
platform in space in order to manufacture semiconduc- ties. And in a very distant future, humanity could relocate
tors, pharmaceuticals and fibre optics. to space after Earth becomes uninhabitable.
› SpaceData Inc. is using AI methods to create Earth's › Aggravating resource scarcity: Space-based re-
digital twin based on satellite data. sources, including for example rare minerals and space-
› NASA successfully tested 3D-printed rocket engine based solar power, might alleviate the need for resources
parts. and climate change mitigation on Earth.
› Changing security paradigm: Space might become a
domain of active conflict between nations.
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS: › Expanding influence of East and South: Geopoliti-
cal tensions could rise as well as the race for space disco-
› Data science & AI: Data from space (earth observa-
very and exploitation.
tion, geodata) can be used as input for machine-learning
algorithms, e.g. for image analysis and predictive purpo-
ses.
› Immersive technologies: Immersive technologies can
be useful in many parts of the space production chain,
e.g. during design or training.
› Quantum technologies: Space is the platform on
which quantum communications will take place and will
thus be indispensable for them.
› Sensor technologies: Space offers a platform for new
and advanced sensors. Increasing access to space will
make the deployment of such advanced sensors easier.
› New materials and digital production: New mate-
rials can enhance space applications. Space research can
be key in developing new materials. Space communica-
tions can enable the industrial internet of things. Digital
production can reduce the costs of operating in space.
› Renewable energy and resilience: Space-based so-
lar power is a “sci-fi” space-based energy solution. Space
is key to informing climate policy.
› Human enhancement technologies: Human enhan-
cement can enable space exploration.
› Cyber technologies: Space platforms are part of the
cyber domain.
› Digital communication: Space is a key platform for
digital communication.
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Autonomy can
enable many space applications. Space can enable robo-
tics on Earth, e.g. through the industrial internet of things.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Reding, D.F. et al., “Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040", NATO Science & Technology Organisation, Report, 2020,
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/4/pdf/190422-ST_Tech_Trends_Report_2020-2040.pdf
— Black, J. et al., “Future uses of space out to 2050”, RAND corp., 2022,
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA600/RRA609-1/RAND_RRA609-1.pdf
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

31
 New materials

2.6 NEW MATERIALS

AND DIGITAL PRODUCTION
TRANSFORMING HOW THINGS
ARE MADE

DESCRIPTION: ten soft and flexible, e.g. many plastics), ceramics (hard,
brittle, resistant to corrosion, electrically non-conductive,
Advanced (novel) materials are artificial materials e.g. concrete, porcelain) and composites (made from two
with unique and novel properties. These materials may or more constituent materials, merged to create a ma-
have desirable characteristics, including extreme heat re- terial with properties unlike the individual elements). A
sistance, high strength, energy harvesting and storage, further “exotic” category is quantum materials, which is
superconductivity, embedded sensing and other exotic an umbrella term for materials with interesting or useful
properties such as stealth, self-adaptability, and self-hea- quantum properties resulting from electronic interactions
ling. Digital manufacturing (also often referred to as beginning at the atomic and subatomic level.
Industry 4.0) encompasses the digitisation of the entire Advanced materials within these categories are used
manufacturing value chain to enable unprecedented le- with the aim of improving performance in various areas,
vels of real-time monitoring, control and optimisation. such as:
This level of digitisation moves beyond production to also • Weight: Lightweight metal alloys such as aluminium
include the entire ecosystem of partners, suppliers and alloys and titanium alloys, as well as composite materials
end users with the aim of gathering and sharing data such as fibreglass and carbon fibre composites, are being
that can be used to optimise designs, manufacturing pro- developed to reduce weight while retaining or improving
cesses, operations and through-life support. strength.
“New materials” can be divided into the following cate- • Strength and durability: Materials such as carbon
gories: metals (hard, ductile and heat and electrically fibre and advanced ceramics are being developed to out-
conductive, e.g. copper as well as high-entropy alloys perform traditional materials in terms of strength and
and shape memory alloys), polymers (widely variable, of- durability.

32
• Stability and efficacy: A material’s stability can al- models that would be used to simulate the performance
low it to retain its original characteristics and properties of the product. In doing so, the insights gained from
throughout its intended use, whereas efficacy is the abi- live operations could be used to provide information to
lity to produce a desired or intended result, for example maintenance and support based on predictive modelling,
for drug delivery. rather than on the mean times between failure. In turn,
• Self-healing and mimicking ability: Self-healing real-world data on system and sub-system performance
materials can recover/repair any damage they sustain could be fed back into the design process.
automatically and autonomously, and electronic skin can
mimic the sensory capabilities of human skin. Additive manufacturing or 3D printing is a novel ma-
• Processing: Advanced materials such as graphene, nufacturing method at the heart of digital production. It
nanowires and quantum dots can improve the perfor- creates three-dimensional solid objects of virtually unli-
mance of electronic devices by increasing speed, reducing mited shape from digital models and a wide variety of
power consumption and improving memory capacity. metals, plastics and resins. Successive layers of material
are laid down in different forms and, in some cases, diffe-
As materials technology advances, the improvements rent material compositions. It can be used for rapid pro-
in these and other properties will become more and totyping, on-the-spot production and repair, as well as
more impressive, potentially even achieving properties for the production of precision, custom and unique parts
that seem unnatural. Metamaterials, for example, could or very complex shapes that can result in the number of
achieve electromagnetic properties that do not occur na- parts required in systems being reduced.
turally, such as negative index of refraction or electro-
magnetic cloaking. Nanomaterials could combine unique As this trend advances, an increasing part of the value
optical, electronic, thermo-physical and mechanical pro- chain will be digitised, providing increasing gains from
perties. this digitisation. Digital production is an umbrella term
that includes most of the technology trends studied in
The acquisition lifecycle of a product is often broken down AnticipaTech. As more of these relevant enabling techno-
along the CADMID cycle, defined in six phases: Concept, logies mature, they will be implemented increasingly for
Assessment, Demonstration, Manufacture, In-Service and digital production. This implementation will happen at
Disposal/Termination. different rates and at different levels of implementation
depending on the nature of a given sector.
Digital production aims to digitise more and more ele-
ments of this chain, including production, as well as the New materials technologies are driven by rapid technolo-
whole ecosystem of partners, suppliers and end users. gical advances in a wide range of materials research and
The aim is to gather and share data that can be used to development fields. Digital production advancements are
optimise designs, manufacturing processes, operations driven by developments in many enabling fields, such as
and through-life support. A “digital twin” of each new the rise of data and connectivity, analytics, human-ma-
product could be established and continuously updated chine interactions and improvements in robotics. A fur-
using real-world data at all stages of the CADMID cy- ther driving force are the synergistic effects of integration
cle. This data would be used to generate real-time up- efforts already happening in businesses for non-techno-
dates to industrial machinery to improve the efficiency logical reasons.
of manufacturing processes, as well as feeding predictive

IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES

AND CHALLENGES:

In the table below, we summarise which functions are generally provided by the use
of new materials and digital production, which impact metrics for these functions are
expected to improve and a number of example applications that these improvements
would enable.

33
New materials
HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS
POSSIBLE FUTURE
OF NEW MATERIALS
IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED
AND DIGITAL PRODUCTION

IMPROVEMENTS E.G. IN:

• LOW-WEIGHT, HIGH-STRENGTH
• WEIGHT.
MATERIALS.
• CONDUCTIVITY.
• ROOM TEMPERATURE
• HEAT AND STRENGTH
SUPERCONDUCTORS.
NEW MATERIALS RESISTANCE.
• CLOAKING COATINGS.
• NANOMATERIALS
• BUILDING MATERIALS
• SELF-HEALING AND SHAPE
FOR REDUCED CO2
MEMORY MATERIALS
PRODUCTION.
• “EXOTIC” PROPERTIES.

BENEFITS THROUGHOUT
THE VALUE CHAIN, INCLUDING:
• LOWER OPERATIONAL COSTS.
• INTEGRATED VALUE CHAIN
• HIGHER EFFICIENCY, LOWER
FROM CONCEPT TO PRODUCTION,
DIGITAL PRODUCTION WASTE.
TO USE FOR A WIDER RANGE
• INCREASED ADAPTABILITY
OF PRODUCTS AND SECTORS.
OF DESIGNS.
• INCREASED ADAPTABILITY
OF MATERIAL PROPERTIES.

Below, we will discuss the impact and the main tion be overcome, such as limitations as regards the pro-
uncertainties and challenges of new materials duct size, precision, and quality, and the potential need
and digital production for each category: for post-fabrication processing?

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — ECONOMIC:
• Impact: Specific new materials could potentially pose • Impact: The economic relevance of new materials
new health hazards. Digital production would transform and digital production will be massive. New materials
manufacturing and have an impact on the social aspect will increase the quality and performance of a very large
of the workplace in this sector as well as in adjacent sec- number of products and services, and thus their econo-
tors. Novel capabilities, for example the on-demand cus- mic value. Digital production methods have the potential
tomisation of a product, could change how products are to increase production efficiency along the entire value
produced and consumed. chain in practically every sector and can have a signifi-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the cant economic impact.
transition to digital production impact the demand for • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
workforce skills? Do specific materials have any negative high up-front costs of digital production methods affect
health effects? adoption? Which sectors will be more amenable to digi-
— TECHNOLOGICAL: tal production methods? Which parts of the value chain
can be more efficiently digitised? Will specific new mate-
• Impact: New materials and digital production could
rials be economically viable?
have a large impact on a wide variety of sectors. The
wide-ranging improvements offered by new materials
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
can open up many types of applications in different sec-
tors. Some examples are the energy sector, with carbon • Impact: Both new materials and digital production
fibre composites for wind turbines, electronics with the methods aim to increase efficiency in the production and
advent of superconductors that can operate near room use of a product, and thus can have a significant impact
temperatures, or healthcare, with new drug delivery sys- on the reduction of the environmental and climate foot-
tems. Digital production will change the face of every print of production. New building materials could emit
step in the manufacturing industry and thus will have an less CO2 during production or even have CO2 absorbing
impact on the production of all types of products, from capabilities. Specific new materials could potentially pose
miniaturised everyday electronics to complex aerospace new environmental hazards.
vehicles. • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will re-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will specific key source and energy efficiency evolve in the production of
new materials be able to be produced on a large-scale new materials? Will the new materials generate new en-
basis? How can technical challenges for digital produc- vironmental threats?
34
 production
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: › Sensor technologies: Distributed sensing throughout
the value chain, but mainly in production facilities will be
• Impact: New materials could have a positive or nega-
central for digital production.
tive impact on the demand for resources. Novel produc-
› New space technologies: Space is a platform for the
tion methods and the related interconnections and inte-
key positioning, navigation and timing capabilities that
gration might make new regulations and laws necessary.
are necessary for digital production.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How will per-
› Quantum technologies: Quantum capabilities, such
ceived risks surrounding cyber and data security as well
as optimisation and simulation, could significantly en-
as intellectual property affect the adoption of digital pro-
hance and enable the production of new materials as
duction? How should the production of new materials be
well as the large-scale optimisation of digital production.
regulated to reduce health and environmental impacts?
› Renewable energy and resilience: New materials
and digital production can significantly decrease the
WEAK SIGNALS:
environmental and climate impact of a large number of
› UC San Diego researchers created a non-invasive neu- sectors.
ral implant with graphene electrodes to monitor deep › Human enhancement technologies: New materials
brain activity from the surface. would be necessary e.g. bio-compatible human enhance-
› Argonne National Laboratory researchers achieved ments and implants.
a temperature record for superconductors, enabling su- › Cyber technologies: Digital production will play a si-
perconductivity at minus 23 degrees Celsius under high gnificant part in the cyber domain.
pressure. › Digital communication: Digital communication ap-
› Siemens and Nvidia are developing an “industrial proaches, such as 5G, will be one of the main technolo-
metaverse”, enabling digital twins and internet-of-things gies needed for digital production.
applications.
› University of Michigan researchers employ a unique INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
3D printing method to create thin, curved and resilient
› Aggravating resource scarcity: New materials and
concrete walls, allowing recycled materials to be used
digital production can ease this scarcity via increases in
and in turn reduce the impact on the environment.
efficiency.
› Changing nature of work: New digital production
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS:
approaches throughout the value chain could significant-
› Data science & AI: AI can be used in the design of ly disrupt the nature of work.
new materials and in the design and operation of digi- › Changing security paradigm: Advances in metama-
tal production capabilities. Data science is central to the terials, particularly electromagnetic coatings, can pose
latter. new security risks such as invisibility and advancing
› Immersive technologies: Immersive technologies stealth technology.
will play a key role in the human-machine cooperative › Growing consumption: New materials and produc-
operation of digital production capabilities. tion capabilities could enhance the efficiency of the pro-
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Robotic and duction and use of many new products.
autonomous systems are a central technology for digi- › Shifting health challenges: Exotic properties of new
tal production. New materials can be useful for future materials can be used in new medical devices and for
robots. treatments of diseases, as well as in drug development
and nanomedicine.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Reding, D.F. et al., “Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040", NATO Science & Technology Organisation, Report, 2020,
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/4/pdf/190422-ST_Tech_Trends_Report_2020-2040.pdf
— Ladetto, Q., “Defence future technologies – Emerging technology trends 2015”, Armasuisse, Report, 2015,
https://deftech.ch/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DefenceFutureTechnologies_EmergingTechnologyTrends2015.compressed.pdf
— Burnett, M. et al., “Advanced Materials and Manufacturing – Implications for Defence to 2040”, Defence Science and Technology Group,
Report, 2018, https://www.dst.defence.gov.au/sites/default/files/events/documents/DST-Group-GD-1022.pdf
— Unknown author, “What is digital manufacturing? (a definitive guide)”, TWI Global, Website, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.twi-global.com/technical-knowledge/faqs/what-is-digital-manufacturing
— Black, J. et al., “Future uses of space out to 2050”, RAND corp., 2022,
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA600/RRA609-1/RAND_RRA609-1.pdf
— Unknown author, “Industry 4.0”, BCG, Website, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.bcg.com/capabilities/manufacturing/industry-4.0
— Yankovitz, D. et al., “The future of materials”, Deloitte Insights, Article, 2023,
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/oil-and-gas/the-future-of-materials.html
— Unknown author, “Classes of Materials”, University of Cambridge, Website, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.doitpoms.ac.uk/tlplib/artefact/classes.php
— Broholm, C., “Basic research needs for quantum materials”, US Department of Energy, Technical report, 2016,
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1616509
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

35
 Renewable energy

2.7 RENEWABLE ENERGY

AND RESILIENCE
POWERING A CLEAN
AND SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

DESCRIPTION: red renewable, as fission material depends on non-re-

newable sources and due to the issue of nuclear waste.
Renewable energy is energy derived from natural Longer-term solutions include futuristic energy produc-
sources that are replenished at a higher rate than they tion methods, such as nuclear fusion (fusing light ato-
are consumed. In contrast to fossil fuel-based energy, mic nuclei to form heavier ones, releasing vast amounts
renewable energy produces very low greenhouse gas of energy in the process) and space-based solar power
emissions, such as carbon dioxide, over its life cycle. (collecting solar power in space which is then transmitted
Renewable energy sources generally depend on energy to the ground).
flows through the Earth’s ecosystem, such as from the
insolation of the sun and the geothermal energy of the Renewable energy sources can have significant benefits
Earth. Resilience in energy systems is defined as the concerning resilience, including:
ability to withstand threats, both natural (e.g. drought, • Low reliance on fuel supply, and low sensitivity for
earthquake, flood and storm, surge, hurricane, ice storm, example to volatile price spikes or unexpected changes
tornado, tsunami) and man-made (e.g. cyber attack, phy- in fuel availability.
sical attack, intentional electromagnetic pulses and ma- • Reliance on naturally occurring, free and self-repleni-
jor operation errors). shing sources of fuel such as sunlight and wind.
• Smaller, decentralised power generation, which
Renewable energy sources include solar (e.g. direct could conceivably be deployed in much smaller units than
heating, photovoltaics), wind, hydropower (dams), ma- traditional power generation methods.
rine (e.g. wave energy, current energy), geothermal and • Rapidly deployable in comparison to traditional ge-
biomass. Nuclear fission plants are not typically conside- neration using fossil fuels or nuclear energy.

36
They also suffer from potential drawbacks in terms of re- Climate change is the main driver behind the need for
silience, including: renewable energy. Only by limiting the global tempera-
ture increase to 1.5°C could the world avoid some of the
• The inherent variability of the energy supply makes
worst climate impacts. This limit is typically considered as
it challenging to use renewables as a baseline energy
a tipping point below which some of the worst climate
supply in an energy system. High-performance energy
impacts of climate change could be avoided and the li-
storage solutions are needed; however, these are not
kelihood of extreme weather events could be reduced.
technologically mature enough.
The resilience benefits offered by low emissions energy
• Many renewables rely on finite supplies of specific
systems are also another key driver. On the technological
key elements for their construction, for example, rare
side, advances in the last decade have made renewable
earth materials needed to manufacture photovoltaics.
energy sources very competitive, with photovoltaics and
• Their resilience is particularly vulnerable to climate
wind turbines dramatically dropping in cost and increa-
change, as this may worsen extreme weather events and
sing in efficiency, for example
increase power outages. Integrating renewables could
thus add a degree of uncertainty to power systems.

The goal of managing the effects of climate change is

the main driver for transitioning to a low or zero-emis-
sions economy as currently envisioned by many govern-
ments. The European Commission’s plan to transition to
a net-zero greenhouse gas emission economy by 2050
offers a clearly formulated roadmap is applied as an exa-
mple in this report10.

The European Commission’s vision outlines seven main

strategic building blocks:
1. Maximise energy efficiency, including zero-emission
buildings;
2. Maximise the deployment of renewables and the use
of electricity to fully decarbonise Europe’s energy supply;
3. Embrace clean, safe and connected mobility;
4. Use the circular economy as a key enabler to reduce
GHG emissions;
5. Develop smart network infrastructure and inter-
connections;
6. Use the bioeconomy and create essential carbon sinks;
7. Develop and deploy Carbon Capture and Storage
(CCS) technologies to remove excess carbon from the
atmosphere.
Using these levers, the EU has met its 2020 goals. The
new 2030 targets for energy efficiency and renewable
energy should enable the EU to reduce its emissions by
around 45% if fully implemented. This is all with the aim
of achieving a zero-emission economy by 2050.

Beyond 2050, it is conceivable that futuristic solutions

such as fusion energy and space-based solar power will
offer additional alternative sources of clean power, offe-
ring further benefits such as reduced land usage.

10
Switzerland’s Federal Council decided in August 2019 that Switzerland should aim for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions
by 2050. The net-zero target is thus enshrined in law in Switzerland (link: https://www.fedlex.admin.ch/eli/fga/2022/2403/de)

37
Renewable energy
IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
AND CHALLENGES:

In the table below, we summarise which functions are generally provided by the use
of new materials and digital production, which impact metrics for these functions are
expected to improve using renewable energy and a number of example applications that
these improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

POSSIBLE FUTURE
OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED
AND RESILIENCE

• HIGHER PERCENTAGE
OF RENEWABLE POWER
IN THE ENERGY MIX.
• INCREASED RESILIENCE • LOW TO ZERO EMISSIONS
ENERGY PRODUCTION
TO ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC ENERGY PRODUCTION.
EFFECTS.
• DECREASED RESILIENCE
TO CLIMATE EFFECTS.

• DECREASED FOSSIL FUEL USE.

• INCREASED USE
OF RENEWABLE ENERGY • ELECTRIFIED MOBILITY.
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION CARRIERS. • SMART ENERGY GRID.
AND MANAGEMENT • IMPROVED GRID • RENEWABLE ENERGY
MANAGEMENT METHODS. AS BASELOAD.
• INCREASED RESILIENCE
TO DISRUPTIONS.

• HIGH-EFFICIENCY HEATING
FROM GEOTHERMAL.
• INCREASE IN EFFICIENCY
ENERGY USE • HIGH-EFFICIENCY ELECTRONICS.
OF USE.
• ELECTRIFIED MOBILITY.

Below, we will discuss the impact and the main effects on employment and job quality will further accen-
uncertainties and challenges of renewable ener- tuate these effects. At the same time, the side effects of
gy systems are discussed for each category: renewable energy, such as increased land usage, might
have a disrupting effect on local and agricultural socie-
— SOCIO-CULTURAL: ties.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will social
• Impact: Renewable energy and its positive effects on
acceptance significantly impede the use of renewable
energy resilience will have significant positive social ef-
sources? What will be the net effect of the transition to
fects. By mitigating the most extreme effects of climate
a renewable energy system on employment? How is the
change, it can dramatically increase the quality of life and
shift to renewable energy systems related to social justice
life expectancy of a large number of people. Its positive
concerns?

38
 and resilience
— TECHNOLOGICAL: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
• Impact: The transition to renewable energy systems is • Impact: Energy security has been a driving force
set to significantly change several key sectors. It will, for behind geopolitical conflict in the past. The transition
example, decarbonise and electrify transportation, manu- to renewable energies has the potential to significantly
facturing and other sectors. ease these pressures and contribute towards individual
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will established nations achieving energy self-sufficiency and resilience.
(solar, wind) renewable technologies continue developing New sources of conflict might arise around the key re-
at the same impressive pace? How will other renewable sources, such as rare earth elements, needed for the
technologies develop, and will they become competitive hardware in new renewable energy systems.
in comparison with established technologies? What role • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
will long-term technologies such as nuclear fusion play? transition to renewable energy systems affect global
What role will developments in non-renewable, non-fos- geopolitics? Which regulations will drive forwards the
sil energy sources such as advanced fission play? How spread of renewable energy systems?
will technology on the energy demand side (e.g. trans-
portation) develop? WEAK SIGNALS:
› Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory resear-
— ECONOMIC:
chers achieved a breakeven by producing more energy in
• Impact: In the shorter term, the price of energy gene- a fusion reaction than was used to ignite it. A key miles-
rated by renewable systems might increase in compari- tone for nuclear fusion was thus reached.
son with fossil fuel-based systems. This will have knock- › Greenlytics, a Swedish start-up, is integrating AI, me-
on effects on the economy. Renewable energy sources teorology and data analysis to predict electricity produc-
are becoming more competitive each year, and they will tion and demand, enabling advanced and efficient me-
likely catch up or surpass fossil fuel-based sources in eco- thods for energy distribution and management.
nomic efficiency in the longer term. It has been estimated › India and the UK are collaborating to create a global
that the renewable energy transition will have a net po- solar grid spanning 140 countries to efficiently connect
sitive impact on the economy and facilitate job growth. solar producers to consumers, and to reduce the need for
In the long term, the switch to a clean energy system will extensive energy storage.
have benefits, such as preventing damage from climate
change and additional benefits such as improved air qua-
lity. The transition will arguably decouple emissions from
economic growth and help to develop new industries,
jobs and technical innovations.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: What will be
the net economic effect of the transition to renewable
energy systems? Is a shift to renewable energy systems
financially feasible?

— ENVIRONMENTAL:
• Impact: The environmental impact of renewable en-
ergy will be immense, mitigating the effects of climate
change to prevent severe negative effects on human
health and the environment. Some environmental degra-
dation might still occur due to the increased land usage
required by renewable energy sources and/or because of
the extraction of elements required for their manufac-
ture.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will the climate
response to the reduced emissions energy systems be
sufficient to achieve the stated temperature rise goals?
To what extent will renewable energy sources impact the
environment, for example with respect to land use and
resource extraction? How will climate change affect the
deployment and operation of renewable energy systems?

39
Renewable energy
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS: INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
› Data science & AI: AI and data-based methods can › Aggravating resource scarcity and growing
offer smart methods for the efficient management of en- consumption: Renewable energy will some resources
ergy production, distribution and consumption. (e.g. fossil fuels) less scarce, but may aggravate the scar-
› Immersive technologies: Immersive technologies city of others (e.g. rare earth minerals).
could offer improved methods for the training and edu- › Climate change and environmental degradation:
cation of personnel working in the fields of renewable Renewable energy will be key in addressing climate
energy technologies, design and visualisation of ener- change and environmental degradation.
gy infrastructure planning, and remote monitoring and › Changing security paradigm: Renewable energy
maintenance of renewable energy systems. will generally have a net positive effect on international
› Quantum technologies: Quantum computing might conflict by reducing the need for resources and increa-
offer a method for addressing previously untraceable sing energy resilience.
problems in meteorology, climate and energy-related de- › Continuing urbanisation: Renewable energy will sa-
cision-making. tisfy the increasing need for clean energy for cities.
› Sensor technologies: Distributed, ubiquitous, minia- › Shifting health challenges: Renewable energy will
turised and affordable sensors will play a central role in contribute very positively to health challenges related to
renewable energy systems. climate change and environmental degradation.
› New materials and digital production: New mate-
rials and production methods can improve the efficiency
of energy production, distribution and consumption.
› New space technologies: Space-generated data can
assist in energy management.
› Human enhancement technologies: None.
› Cyber technologies: Novel renewable energy systems
will play a part in the cyber domain.
› Digital communication: Digital communication
can be an important component of renewable energy
systems, in all aspects of production, distribution and
consumption.
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Robotic and au-
tonomous systems can be helpful in every aspect of the
renewable energy system life cycle, from manufacturing
to management and maintenance.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Unknown author, “Going climate-neutral by 2050 – A strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive
and climate-neutral EU economy”, European Commission, Pamphlet, 2019,
https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/92f6d5bc-76bc-11e9-9f05-01aa75ed71a1
— Unknown author, “Renewables", International Energy Agency, Website,
https://www.iea.org/energy-system/renewables
— Xu, L. et al., “Resilience of renewable power systems under climate risks”, Nature Reviews Electrical Engineering, Vol. 1, pp. 53–66, 2021,
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44287-023-00003-8.pdf
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

40
 Human enhancement

2.8 HUMAN ENHANCEMENT

TECHNOLOGIES
TAKING HUMAN PERFORMANCE
TO NEW LEVELS

DESCRIPTION: • Social performance is the ability to perceive oneself

as part of a group and the readiness to act as part of the
Human performance enhancement is the use of team.
science and technologies to enhance human perfor- Four core human augmentation technologies can be
mance beyond the limits of our biological potential and identified – genetic engineering, bioinformatics, brain
can include additional capabilities beyond those innate interfaces and pharmaceuticals. These will be discussed
to humans. Human performance enhancement is a sub- in detail below.
set of human augmentation, defined as the application Genetic engineering refers to the modification of repro-
of science and technologies to improve human perfor- ductive cells (germline engineering), or cells in the grown
mance temporarily or permanently. organism (somatic modification). Germline modification
affects all cells in the organism and the change is passed
Conceptualising the human as a platform is fundamental on to the next generation. Somatic modification affects
to thinking about human augmentation. The following only the target cells and those cells descended from
key elements collectively represent the human platform: them.
• Physical performance is the capability to affect the Recent developments in genetic engineering are begin-
physical environment and move within it. Key compo- ning to offer significant potential:
nents include strength, dexterity, speed and endurance.
• Psychological performance comprises cognition, • Greater range: Gene editing can now add, delete and
emotion and motivation. Cognition is the mental action alter specific elements of DNA in the target genome.
or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding. • Increased specificity and integration: Specific regions
Emotion describes the subjective human experience and of DNA can be targeted by cutting tools so that changes
is closely linked with motivation, which is the force that are more precise and safer. There are still off-target ef-
energises, activates and directs behaviour. fects, but newer techniques such as prime editing are
improving the targeting process.
41
human enhancement
• Improved duration of effect: Being able to target the nal, motivational and sensory processes. Most perfor-
genome rather than simply depositing DNA into cells mance-enhancing pharmaceuticals have their origins in
means that edits are reproduced as the cell divides and medicines or are attempts to enhance the presence of na-
the effect is spread. turally occurring chemicals in the human body or nature
• Easier production: New production techniques are of- in general. However, their use as enhancements lacks a
ten easier, cheaper and faster to develop and perform. sufficient level of understanding, and they often come
with side effects that negate the potential gains.
Genetic engineering could be used to prevent inheriting
incurable diseases and represents the first step towards Cognition-enhancing pharmaceuticals range from caf-
precision medicine based on an individual’s biology. feine to stimulants such as amphetamines. These typi-
cally affect simple, low-level functions such as alertness
Bioinformatics is an interdisciplinary field that applies and memory rather than high-level intelligence. Other
computation and analysis tools to capture and interpret types of cognitive augmentation include the modulation
large sets of biological data. The processing of such large of blood glucose and hormones, such as adrenaline and
volumes of data available for exploitation and assess- testosterone. Pharmaceuticals that enhance physical per-
ment has enabled a much greater understanding of bio- formance include anabolic steroids. Performance gains
logical, biochemical, physiological cognitive and social can be impressive, but the side effects can be severe and
behaviours. In turn, this has supported new technological include even death.
developments in medicine, genetics and biology.
Currently, pharmaceuticals have only limited use in hu-
Brain interfaces, also known as neural interfaces or man augmentation. Developments in biotechnology,
brain-computer interfaces, enable direct communication nanotechnology and bioinformatics could, however, al-
between the brain and the computer. They can be one- low new pharmaceuticals to be designed that have more
way (e.g. to understand brain function) or two-way (e.g. powerful and precise effects.
to create a control and feedback system). The hearing aid
is an example of a one-way interface. Thought-speech Additional technologies of interest include exoskele-
translation in people is an example of a two-way inter- tons, sensory augmentation and social media. These will
face. be discussed below.

External / non-invasive brain interfaces rely on direct, Exoskeletons are external, removable structures capable
non-invasive measurements of brain activity. Internal/in- of supporting the human musculoskeletal system and
vasive brain interfaces aim to develop a high-bandwidth have been in development for decades. Passive exoske-
data connection between the brain and the computer letons can ease the load on the body and reduce the risk
by implanting electrodes under the scalp via surgery for of chronic occupational injuries. Active exoskeletons am-
communicating brain signals. Such approaches, however, plify the user’s normal movement and can even translate
come with their own challenges. brain signals into movement or provide restorative or
enhanced mobility and strength. Exoskeletons are being
Neurostimulation can be used to change brain func- developed for therapeutic reasons, but industrial and mi-
tion. Non-invasive methods of neurostimulation, such as litary applications are becoming increasingly common.
transcranial magnetic stimulation, use electrical means Prosthetic limbs can be seen as a subcategory of exos-
to increase or decrease the excitability of areas of the keletons. The most advanced prosthetics use implanted
brain. This potentially affects mental processes such as microelectrodes to provide a two-way interface.
neural plasticity and memory, attention and creativity.
Sensory augmentation aims to extend the sensory range
Brain interfaces could enhance concentration and memo- or acuity either by using wearables or sensors mounted
ry function, leading to new forms of collaborative intel- or implanted on the body to “translate” external infor-
ligence. In some very ambitious applications, they could mation for the human senses or by the modification of
allow new skills and knowledge to be simply “down- innate senses. This could allow the user, for example, to
loaded”, and the physical world to be manipulated using “see” through walls, sense vibrations and detect air-
your own thoughts alone, for example, flying a plane borne chemicals.
from anywhere in the world.
Social media and social networks may be best understood
Pharmaceuticals play a role in many important forms as a means for human social augmentation, and they
of augmentation, including physical, cognitive, emotio- have in some cases been highly successful11.

They can also influence individuals, reducing their field of perception and becoming factors in the move towards diminished
11

humans.

42
 technologies
Performance optimisation technologies aim to im- Advances in materials, information systems and the hu-
prove human performance up to the limit of our biolo- man sciences are laying the foundations for the signifi-
gical potential without adding new capabilities. They cant enhancement of human physiological, cognitive and
include, among others, physical and cognitive training, social capabilities. Development in these areas is enabled
sleep optimisation and optimised hydration. by rapid parallel developments in adjacent areas, such as
robotic and autonomous systems, data science and arti-
Less invasive and ambitious human enhancement ap- ficial intelligence, miniaturisation, and innovative mate-
plications will be the first implemented. As the various rials and manufacturing. These developments are further
significant health impact, technological, and regulatory driven primarily by substantial national investments and
challenges are addressed and as the social acceptance increasing commercial interest.
of human enhancement technologies grows, more and
more ambitious and complex applications will be im-
plemented. Eventually, integrated human-machine sym-
biotes of unparalleled capabilities may potentially be
able to be created.

IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES

AND CHALLENGES:

In the table below, we summarise which functions are generally provided by the use of
human enhancement technologies, which impact metrics for these functions are expec-
ted to improve using renewable energy and a number of example applications that these
improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

POSSIBLE FUTURE
OF HUMAN ENHANCEMENT
IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED
TECHNOLOGIES

• EXOSKELETONS FOR
• IMPROVED CAPABILITY INDUSTRIAL AND MILITARY
TO AFFECT THE PHYSICAL APPLICATIONS.
PHYSICAL
ENVIRONMENT AND MOVE • PERFORMANCE-ENHANCING
WITHIN IT. PHARMACEUTICALS WITH
REDUCED SIDE EFFECTS.

• AUDITORY ENHANCEMENT
• IMPROVED COGNITION, FOR PERSONAL PROTECTION.
PSYCHOLOGICAL EMOTION AND MOTIVATION. • MEMORY ENHANCEMENT
VIA NEUROSTIMULATION.

• IMPROVED COMMUNICATION
• NEW, INTENSE WAYS TO
SKILLS.
CONNECT (E.G. VIA LINKED
SOCIAL • ENHANCED COLLABORATION
BRAIN-MACHINE INTERFACES).
AND TRUST.
• IMPROVED GROUP COHESION.

43
human enhancement
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main — ECONOMIC:
uncertainties and challenges of human enhance-
• Impact: Human enhancement technologies have the
ment technologies for each category:
potential to improve productivity and workforce health
while mitigating disabilities. Human augmentation will
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
help people to live even longer and better lives, thus
• Impact: Human enhancement technologies are likely either alleviating the pressure placed on social and
to be more easily available to the rich or otherwise pri- healthcare systems by improving health and producti-
vileged. Alternatively, it is conceivable that such poten- vity in old age or exacerbating it. Personalised medicine
tially risky technologies will be reserved for the underpri- will reduce the level of infrastructure needed to provide
vileged in some societies. Without intervention, human healthcare services and the associated costs. The preven-
augmentation is likely to exacerbate inequality and could tative interventions enabled will be cheaper and more
lead to societal tensions. Furthermore, it may challenge effective than at present, which means that less strain
or offend philosophical, religious and other views, and will be placed on the economy.
result in polarisation, social tension and, conceivably, • Main uncertainties and challenges: Will consumers
conflict. Interest in self-enhancement, particularly in a widely accept this technology? What will be the econo-
world of increasing individualism and competitiveness, mic impact of human enhancement, if human labour is
might also drive social tensions. widely replaced by robotics anyway?
• Main uncertainties and challenges: To what extent
will human enhancement technologies be socially accep- — ENVIRONMENTAL:
ted? How will factors, including the technologies’ pur-
• Impact: Human enhancement has been argued as
pose, effectiveness, and safety, affect social acceptance?
being a long-term solution that will help humans adapt
What philosophical issues will arise, for example about
to a changing environment, for example for dealing with
what it means to be human, who should, can and must
the effects of climate change.onitoring and mitigating
receive enhancement, and how to deal with the possible
the effects of climate change.
inequality?
• Main uncertainties and challenges: What, if any,
will be the net environmental and climate effect of the
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
entire chain from design to production, implementation
• Impact: The potential applications of human enhan- and the operation of human enhancements?
cement technologies are staggering. In the medical field,
genetic engineering could be used for precision personal — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
medicine. Brain interfaces could cure paralysis and treat
• Impact: Human augmentation is founded on very per-
Alzheimer’s disease. A huge impact is anticipated for hu-
sonal biological data. Significant challenges and threats
man-machine interfacing, which is a key aspect of the
could thus result in safety, security and privacy concerns.
operation of many future technologies, such as transpor-
Nations might get involved in an “arms race” for human
tation and manufacturing.
augmentation technologies, considering their significant
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How can the
potential applications in defence and security.
numerous technological challenges faced by genetic en-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How can the
gineering be addressed (e.g. new vehicles to carry the
large number of important regulatory, legal and gover-
genetic code, better understanding of the unintended
nance challenges be addressed? How should challenging
side effects)? How can the huge knowledge gap surroun-
applications be dealt with (e.g. do-it-yourself enhance-
ding the human brain be bridged? How can neurostimu-
ments, genetic engineering of humans, and “designer
lation technologies achieve more complex functionality,
babies”)? How should human enhancements in war
or target specific areas of the brain? Will it be possible
be regulated? Will human enhancements be eventual-
to capture complex signals from deep brain functions wi-
ly considered a human right, or will they be left to be
thout the insertion of electrodes? How to deal with the
self-regulated by the market?
possibility of brain interface hacking? How can exoskele-
tons and prosthetics achieve better speed and range of
movement?

44
 technologies
WEAK SIGNALS: › Renewable energy and resilience: In the long term,
advanced human enhancement technologies could be
› Neuralink, a neurotechnology company founded by
used to help humankind adapt to a planet that has been
Elon Musk, has developed a neurosurgery robot capable
made less hospitable by climate change.
of implanting flexible polymer threads into the brain that
› Cyber technologies: With human enhancement tech-
feed into a small, low-powered implant. This implant am-
nologies, the human body itself becomes part of the cy-
plifies and digitises brain signals for broadband-speed
ber domain.
streaming between the brain and technological devices.
› Digital communication: Digital communication tech-
› The University of Utah has developed a prosthetic
nologies are a main component of human enhancement
arm that uses 100 microelectrodes to provide an inter-
technologies.
face with the user’s nervous system. Combining robo-
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Human en-
tics and electrode arrays for the first time has enabled
hancement technologies can enable seamless and rich
the user to experience tactile sensations that are crucial
human-robot interfaces, also for complex applications.
when manipulating delicate objects.
Robotics can improve human enhancement technologies,
› The University of Grenoble enabled a paralysed pa-
for example, prosthetic limbs.
tient to walk again by using two wireless implants to in-
terpret brain signals into robotic movements.
› The MoleculArXiv exploratory programme led by the
INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
CNRS is developing new data storage devices based on
DNA and artificial polymers. › Changing nature of work: Human enhancement
technologies could improve many work-relevant abilities
and increase productivity by enhancing many physical,
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS: cognitive and social capabilities.
› Changing security paradigm: Human enhancement
› Data science & AI: Data science and AI are key aspects
technologies could find significant applications in de-
of bioinformatics, and a central aspect of many other ap-
fence and security by improving the key relevant attri-
plications, e.g. in drug design.
butes e.g. in soldiers.
› Immersive technologies: Human enhancement tech-
› Diversification of education and learning: Human
nologies and immersive technologies go hand-in-hand,
enhancement technologies could improve many lear-
with the latter widely considered a subset of the former.
ning-relevant mental attributes and thus enhance lear-
› Quantum technologies: Quantum simulations may
ning.
promote research on advanced human enhancement
› Widening inequalities: Human enhancement techno-
technologies.
logies are likely to exacerbate inequalities due to there
› Sensor technologies: Miniaturised bio-compatible
being unequal access to them between the rich and the
sensors could be a key part of human enhancement tech-
poor.
nologies. Biosensors are a novel category of sensors.
› Shifting health challenges: Human enhancement
› New space technologies: Human enhancement tech-
technologies could have a groundbreaking impact on life
nologies may be central to the potential long-term settle-
quality and length, with all the attendant benefits.
ment and adaptation of humans to space.
› New materials and digital production: Advanced
materials are a main component of human enhance-
ment technologies. Digital production methods, such as
3D printing, have significant applications within human
enhancement technologies (e.g. human organ printing).

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Unknown author, “Human Augmentation – The Dawn of a New Paradigm, A strategic implications project”, UK MoD and Bundeswehr Office
for Defence Planning, Report, 2020,
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/609d23c6e90e07357baa8388/Human_Augmentation_SIP_access2.pdf
— Reding, D.F. et al., “Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040", NATO Science & Technology Organisation, Report, 2020,
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/4/pdf/190422-ST_Tech_Trends_Report_2020-2040.pdf
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

45
2.9 CYBER TECHNOLOGIES PROTECTING OUR INCREASINGLY
DIGITAL WAY OF LIFE

DESCRIPTION:

Cyberspace can be defined as the virtual and physical Critical infrastructures are composed of public and private
space of all information technology systems linked at the institutions in key sectors, including agriculture, public
data level on a global scale. The basis for cyberspace is health, emergency services, government, information and
the internet as a universal and publicly accessible connec- telecommunications, energy, transportation, banking and
tion and transport network that can be complemented finance. Cyberspace is their nervous system – the control
and further expanded by any number of additional data system of society. Cyberspace comprises a large number
networks. Cyber technology can be defined as the stu- of interconnected computers, servers, routers, switches,
dy of the hardware, software, services and connections cables and wireless connections that allow these critical
that make up cyberspace. The overarching focus of cyber infrastructures to work. Thus, the healthy functioning of
technologies is on how to defend against and mitigate cyberspace is essential to society.
threats to cyberspace. Cybersecurity, also referred to as
information technology security, focuses on protecting Cybersecurity can be broken down into five broad cate-
computers, networks, programs and data from unin- gories, each of which includes several subcategories, as
tended or unauthorised access, change or destruction. is discussed below.

46
Attack and defence aspects include the following: • Hardware security involves security in the design, im-
plementation and deployment of general-purpose and
• Malware and attack technologies focus on discovering
specialist hardware, including trusted computing techno-
and taking advantage of exploits and developing distri-
logies and sources of randomness.
buted malicious systems, as well as applying the asso-
• Cyber-physical systems security aims to address se-
ciated discovery and analysis approaches.
curity challenges in cyber-physical systems, such as the
• The study of adversarial behaviours includes the mo-
internet of things and industrial control systems, as well
tivations, behaviours and methods used by attackers.
as to study the security of large-scale infrastructures.
These include malware supply chains, attack vectors and
• Physical layer and telecommunications security
money transfers.
addresses security concerns and the limitations of the
• Security operations and incident management focus
physical layer, such as aspects of radio frequency enco-
on the configuration, operation and maintenance of se-
dings and transmission techniques, and interference.
cure systems. This includes the detection of and response
to security incidents and the collection and use of threat
Human, organisational and regulatory focus on
intelligence.
non-technical aspects such as governance, regulation,
• Forensics focuses on the collection, analysis and re-
human factors and privacy.
porting of digital evidence in support of incidents and
criminal events.
Cyberspace, as defined above, is predicted to undergo ex-
pansion as adjacent technology fields mature in the fu-
Systems security aspects include the following:
ture. For example, cyberspace will be expanded to various
• Cryptography focuses on the main mathematical cryp- types of objects and devices via the internet of things,
tographical principles as well as emerging algorithms and even to the human body itself through human en-
and the protocols that use them. hancement technologies such as brain interfaces. The at-
• Operating systems and virtualisation security involve tendant requirements for cybersecurity will thus become
protection mechanisms for operating systems, implemen- more and more demanding. The advancement of further
ting the secure abstraction of hardware and the sharing adjacent technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence) will in-
of resources. These include isolation in multiuser systems, crease the sophistication of other cybersecurity technolo-
secure virtualisation and security in database systems. gies themselves (e.g. attack and defence methods).
• Distributed systems security involves security mecha-
nisms relating to larger-scale coordinated distributed
systems. This includes peer-to-peer systems, clouds, mul-
titenant data centres and distributed ledgers.
• Authentication, authorisation and accountability in-
volve all aspects of identity management and authenti-
cation technologies as well as architectures and tools to
support authorisation and accountability in both isolated
and distributed systems.
Software and platform security aspects include the fol-
lowing:
• Software security focuses on categories of program-
ming errors resulting in security bugs, and techniques for
avoiding these errors, both through coding practice and
improved language design. This also includes tools, tech-
niques and methods for the detection of such errors in
existing systems.
• Web and mobile security aims to overcome issues re-
lated to web applications and services distributed across
devices and frameworks. This includes the diverse pro-
gramming paradigms and protection models.
• Secure software lifecycle applies security software en-
gineering techniques in the whole systems development
life cycle, resulting in software that is secure by default.
Infrastructure security aspects include the following:
• Network security focuses on networking and telecom-
munication protocols, including the security of routing,
network security elements and specific cryptographic
protocols used for network security.

47
Cyber
IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
AND CHALLENGES:

The table below summarises the functions that are generally provided by the use of cyber
technologies, which impact metrics for these functions are expected to improve and a
number of example applications that these improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION POSSIBLE FUTURE EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

OF CYBER TECHNOLOGIES IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED

• FULLY AUTOMATED
DISCOVERY OF COMPLEX
SEMANTIC VULNERABILITIES. • AUTOMATED VULNERABILITY
• FULLY AUTOMATED DISCOVERY IN SOFTWARE
GENERATION OF EXPLOITS AND SYSTEMS.
FOR NON-TRIVIAL • AUTONOMOUS HACKING
ATTACKS AND DEFENCES VULNERABILITIES. BOTS AND ARMIES WITH LITTLE
• NEXT-GENERATION MALWARE: OR NO HUMAN INVOLVEMENT.
UNDETECTABLE BACKDOORS • AUTOMATED DEFENCE
IN MACHINE LEARNING OF SYSTEMS.
MODELS.
• IMPROVED DETECTION OF
AND RESPONSE TO ATTACKS.

• ADOPTION OF TRUSTED • PLATFORM-AGNOSTIC SYSTEMS

EXECUTION ENVIRONMENTS. (ON-PREM VS. CLOUD
• PASSWORD-LESS IRRELEVANT).
AUTHENTICATION,
• POST-QUANTUM
SYSTEMS SECURITY E.G. BASED ON BIOMETRIC
CRYPTOGRAPHY.
DATA.
• GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING • CONSOLIDATION OF SECURITY
POLICIES SIMILAR TO THE EU’S SERVICE PROVIDERS
GDPR AND AI ACT. (E.G. WITH SASE).

• IMPROVED SECURITY
IN SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AUTOMATION. • SECURE CODING APPROACHES.
SOFTWARE AND PLATFORM • AI-SUPPORTED SOFTWARE • SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
SECURITY ENGINEERING FOR “DUMMIES” THROUGH
(CODE ASSISTANT) THE USE OF LLMS.
• WIDESPREAD USE OF BOMS
(BILL OF MATERIALS)

• ZERO-TRUST NETWORK
• FRAGMENTATION ARCHITECTURES.
OF NETWORKS. • AUTOMATION OF TESTED
• WIDESPREAD USE OF TRUSTED INFRASTRUCTURE
INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY
COMPUTING ENVIRONMENTS. DEPLOYMENTS.
• REGULATION OF IOT AND • TRUSTED EXECUTION
INDUSTRIAL CONTROL OF SOFTWARE.
SYSTEM SECURITY. • ROBOTS REPLACE HUMANS
FOR SOME TASKS.

48
 technologies
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main — ENVIRONMENTAL:
uncertainties and challenges of cyber technolo-
• Impact: Defensive cybersecurity approaches could de-
gies for each category:
ter cyber attacks that could have negative environmental
consequences, for example attacks on dams or energy
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
plants. Some cyber technologies are inherently very re-
• Impact: Cybersecurity approaches could enhance source-intensive (e.g. for training large language models)
trust in data and communications security, among other and may have a negative environmental effect.
things, and thus have a dramatic impact on the social • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
adoption of the many adjacent technologies that depend resource and energy efficiency of the software, hardware
on these (e.g. data and artificial intelligence, human en- and infrastructure required to implement cyber techno-
hancement). Alternatively, if malicious approaches pre- logies evolve?
vail, they could have the opposite effect.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How will cyber — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
technologies affect social attitudes towards security and
• Impact: In a world of increasing geopolitical tension,
privacy? How will the current drive towards digitisation
cyberspace will become another contested domain. Cy-
develop?
ber technologies will offer increasingly sophisticated
tools in this competition. Such “weaponised” cyber tools
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
might require regulation, for example by cyber “arms
• Impact: Cybersecurity technologies will enable the control” treaties.
protection of sensitive information, thus assisting many • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
applications and technologies that rely on the use of such dynamic regulatory environment (laws, regulations, com-
data. They can also enhance secure communication and pliance requirements at national and international levels)
data exchange over networks, ensuring the confidentia- surrounding cybersecurity evolve? To what extent will re-
lity, integrity and authenticity of transmitted information, gulatory developments impact cybersecurity practices?
once more facilitating the operation of many future ap- What will be the “strategic balance” between offensive
plications depending on these capabilities. and defensive cyber weapons? What global standards
• Main uncertainties and challenges: To what extent should be developed to assist in the regulation of cyber
will artificial intelligence affect cyber technologies? How technologies?
will the assumed groundbreaking impact of quantum
cryptography and computing affect cyber technologies?
What will the timelines be for such disruption?

— ECONOMIC:
• Impact: Cyber attacks on the infrastructure of the fu-
ture (power grids, transportation systems and healthcare
facilities) could have devastating economic effects, both
directly and indirectly (knock-on economic effects), and
even human casualties. Cybersecurity technologies used
to either attack or defend such infrastructure and func-
tions that are critical to the economy will then have an
outsized impact.
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How can orga-
nisations ensure return on investment on cybersecurity
technologies? How can the economic benefits of cyber-
security technologies be quantified? How can the rising
need for cybersecurity specialists be met?

49
Cyber
WEAK SIGNALS: › Renewable energy and resilience: Cybersecurity ap-
proaches can help safeguard future energy infrastructure
› Safe Security has developed a platform for the fast
and make it more resilient to cyber attacks.
estimation of business cyber risks for the purposes of in-
› Human enhancement technologies: Impressively,
surance.
through human enhancement technologies, the human
› The US government has issued a “Space Policy Direc-
body and even the brain could become part of cybers-
tive” for cybersecurity in space, encouraging public and
pace, thus potentially making humans vulnerable to cy-
private space actors to think about cybersecurity from the
ber-attacks.
earliest phases of spacecraft development.
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Autonomous
› Researchers from MIT have developed a method of
and robotic systems will form a significant part of the
quantitatively evaluating cybersecurity methods. The
cyber domain.
framework analyses how probable it is for attackers to
› Digital communication: Novel digital communication
overcome specific weaknesses and steal secret informa-
methods will further increase connectivity within cybers-
tion.
pace as well as enable its dramatic expansion.

INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS:

INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
› Data science and AI: Novel artificial intelligence me-
› Changing security paradigm: A changing security
thods will play a critical role in the development of both
and geopolitical paradigm will increase competition and
novel offensive and defensive cyber tools.
conflict in the cyber domain, as well as the need for more
› Immersive technologies: Cyber technologies and se-
sophisticated cyber security solutions.
curity are key building blocks for ensuring that immersive
› Continuing urbanisation: The ongoing smartification
technologies are established on solid foundations.
of cities depends on cyber technologies; thus, infrastruc-
› Quantum technologies: Quantum computing has the
ture is exposed to the significant security risk of cyber
potential to significantly disrupt cybersecurity by rende-
attacks.
ring current cryptography approaches obsolete, as well as
› Changing nature of work: There will be an increase
by proving new quantum-based cryptography methods.
in demand for security experts in all digitally driven in-
› Sensor technologies: Novel sensors could form a part
dustries.
of extended networks within cyberspace. The potential
› Increasing influence of new governing systems:
dramatic increase in the number of sensors could signi-
The threats of cyber attack-induced manipulation hinder
ficantly increase the “attack surface” for potential cyber
the further digitisation of elections and the governmental
attacks.
participation of citizens, as well as the complete digitisa-
› New space technologies: Space is increasingly be-
tion of public services.
coming part of cyberspace and it is also in need of more
› Shifting health challenges: With personal health
sophisticated cybersecurity solutions.
data being transferred and stored in cyberspace, the risk
› New materials and digital production: Novel digital
of this data being hacked or intercepted increases.
production approaches (e.g. internet of things) will ex-
pand cyberspace dramatically.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Rashid, A. et al., “CyBOK, The Cyber Security Body of Knowledge”, The National Cyber Security Centre, Book, 2019,
https://www.cybok.org/media/downloads/CyBOK-version-1.0.pdf
— Ebner, N. et al., “Cyber Space, Cyber Attack and Cyber Weapons, A Contribution to the Terminology”, IFAR2 Fact Sheet, Pamphlet, 2015,
https://ifsh.de/file-IFAR/pdf_english/IFAR2-FactSheet7.pdf
— Unknown author, “The National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace”, The White House, Report, 2003,
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/pcipb/cyberspace_strategy.pdf

50
 Digital communication

2.10 DIGITAL COMMUNICATION ENHANCING CONNECTIVITY AND ENABLING

SEAMLESS COMMUNICATION GLOBALLY

DESCRIPTION:

Digital communication is defined as the transfer of di- Fibre optic networks offer reliable, high-throughput12,
gital information between different points. Most commu- low-latency13 connectivity provided through a physical
nication systems used for transferring information today wire. They have seen rapid growth in the past and pro-
are either digital or are being converted from analogue vide millions of people with high-speed internet. Fibre
to digital. Such communications can be either wired or optic networks continue to expand.
wireless. Digital connectivity encompasses digital
networks, from mobile and fixed structures to the in- Next-generation Wi-Fi (Wi-Fi 6) aims to improve
ternet, including cables and satellites. We will treat the speeds while supporting many additional connected de-
terms “digital communications” and “digital connecti- vices. It has the potential to make the biggest difference
vity” as synonymous for the purposes of this report. in crowded environments such as airports, apartment
Existing connectivity technologies are penetrating more buildings and stadiums. Due to its performance and se-
broadly across geographies and domains. At the same curity characteristics, it is also suitable for industrial ap-
time, the latest standards are making them more robust. plications.
Advanced connectivity technologies are enabling new
use cases.

12
A measure of how many units of information a system can process in a given amount of time.
13
The delay in network communications.

51
Digital
Mobile cellular networks are being upgraded from the The advancement of wireless technologies will be mainly
current 4G infrastructure to 5G. Low- to mid-frequency driven by two technological factors: cloud computing and
5G networks can offer significant improvements in speed the internet of things:
and latency, all while supporting a greater density of
• Cloud computing refers to a network model in which
connected devices. High-band, also known as millime- applications reside on network servers and are accessed
tre-wave or standalone, 5G networks represent a jump from the end client, for example via a personal computer.
in performance. Designed to be the most ultra-fast mo- Cloud computing is expected to increase in popularity.
bile option, high-band 5G promises to achieve first-class This trend places enormous strain on the communica-
speed, latency, reliability, and security performances, tions infrastructure and the technology must be able to
expanding upon what mobile devices can do. However, deal with the combined challenges of growing user mo-
there is a significant amount of effort and costs involved bility and more mobile computing.
in upgrading the infrastructure required for high-band • The internet of things pertains to the pervasive inclu-
5G. Beyond the current approaches, 6G systems are the sion of internet connectivity, typically wireless, in com-
next frontier in wireless communications. Such systems mon everyday objects. Currently, tens of billions of de-
aim to create an omnipresent wireless network that is in- vices are connected to the internet and this number is
telligent, reliable, scalable, secure and incorporates both projected to grow exponentially. Wireless technology will
terrestrial and space communications.
be a key enabler in realising this vision.
Wireless personal area network technologies in-
clude Bluetooth, NFC (near-field communication), and
RFID (radio frequency identification). RFID enables one-
way contactless communication between devices, while
NFC is a newer form that can support close-range two-
way communication. Bluetooth enables data exchanges
between fixed and mobile devices using radio waves and
building personal area networks.

Low-power wide-area networks (LPWANs) provi-

de connectivity over broader areas and longer ranges.
Since LPWANs require less power from the devices they
connect, they could enhance the devices’ battery lifes-
pan (e.g. by several years or more). Different protocols
exist in this realm (e.g. LoRa, NB-IoT and SigFox). These
standards are designed from the ground up to optimise
internet of things devices.

Low Earth orbit satellites aim to deliver a break-

through in the breadth of coverage. They target areas in
which laying fibre or building tower networks would be
too expensive. This is achieved by deploying constella-
tions of numerous satellites in a low orbit around Earth,
with each satellite orbiting simultaneously. These constel-
lations also provide significantly reduced latency in com-
parison with existing satellite offerings.

In the future, the above solutions will be developed to

offer global, ubiquitous, high-performance and secure
connectivity. Additionally, they will evolve to cover the
many and increasingly challenging use cases of connec-
tivity.

52
 communication
IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
AND CHALLENGES:

The table below summarises the functions that are generally provided by the use of di-
gital communication, which impact metrics for these functions are expected to improve
and a number of example applications that these improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION POSSIBLE FUTURE EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

OF DIGITAL COMMUNICATION IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED

• BACKBONE OF MODERN
• HIGHER THROUGHPUT. TELECOMMUNICATIONS
OPTICAL FIBRE
• LOWER LATENCY. NETWORKS.
(TERRESTRIAL WIRED)
• LOWER MAINTENANCE COSTS. • INTERNAL DATA CENTRE
COMMUNICATIONS.

• MORE CONNECTED DEVICES. • ASSET TRACKING

• HIGHER ENERGY EFFICIENCY. AND LOGISTICS.
LOW-POWER WIDE-AREA
• EXTENDED COVERAGE. • CONNECTIVITY
(TERRESTRIAL WIRELESS)
• LOWER CONNECTIVITY COST. FOR SMART CITIES.

• CONNECTIVITY FOR
INDUSTRIAL INTERNET
• IMPROVED SPEED, RANGE OF THINGS.
AND SECURITY.
WI-FI 6 • HIGH-PERFORMANCE
• MORE SUITABLE FOR
(TERRESTRIAL WIRELESS) INTERNET CONNECTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS.
FOR CROWDED
ENVIRONMENTS.

• HIGHER THROUGHPUT. • ULTRA-HD VIDEO STREAMING.

• MORE CONNECTED DEVICES.
• REMOTE SURGERY
5G/6G CELLULAR • HIGHER SPECTRUM EFFICIENCY.
AND TELEMEDICINE.
(TERRESTRIAL WIRELESS) • BETTER QUALITY OF SERVICE.
• 6G NON-TERRESTRIAL
• HIGHER SECURITY.
• LOWER LATENCY. NETWORKS.

• INCREASED COVERAGE. • MARITIME AND AVIATION

LOW-EARTH ORBIT
• LOWER LATENCY CONNECTIVITY.
SATELLITE CONSTELLATIONS
(COMPARED TO OTHER • GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY
(EXTRATERRESTRIAL WIRELESS)
SPACE-BASED SOLUTIONS). FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES.

53
Digital
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main — ECONOMIC:
uncertainties and challenges of digital commu-
• Impact: As a key enabler of numerous emerging tech-
nications for each category:
nologies, digital connectivity could have an outsized eco-
nomic impact. It has been estimated that it can add a
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
GDP value of $1.2 trillion to $2 trillion in the sectors of
• Impact: Overall quality of life could be enhanced with mobility, healthcare, manufacturing and retail alone. The
ubiquitous connectivity and significantly higher quality enabled internet of things solutions further contribute
of service. This enables individuals, for example, to work by increasing productivity, lowering energy consumption
remotely, access bandwidth-heavy services and stream and reducing overall costs in factories.
higher-quality content. Connectivity will furthermore be a • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
major asset in the treatment of chronic diseases, enabling fragmented nature of demand across many small use
monitoring at home with connected medical devices. Fi- cases affect the economic viability of digital connectivity
nally, a large proportion of the global population could offerings? How will the capital intensiveness of some ad-
receive access to the internet for the first time thanks to vanced connectivity methods (e.g. 5G, 6G, space) affect
new connectivity technologies. the same economic viability? Which types of new actors
• Main uncertainties and challenges: To what extent might become connectivity providers (e.g. telecom opera-
will the dramatic increase in connectivity have a social tors versus tech companies)?
and cultural impact, also for people that did not have
internet access before? — ENVIRONMENTAL:
• Impact: The internet of things solutions enabled by
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
digital connectivity technologies could increase efficiency
• Impact: Digital connectivity is a key enabler for revo- levels and decrease energy consumption throughout the
lutionary capabilities reliant on high-quality connectivity. value chain in a multitude of sectors, thus providing a
For example, edge and cloud computing technologies, significant positive environmental impact.
coupled with advanced connectivity, will unlock the full • Main uncertainties and challenges: What will
benefits of next-generation computing for consumers the net climate impact of connectivity technologies be
and industry. Using the internet of things, logistics pro- in terms of the resources needed for the production of
viders could track and trace products, and thus optimise connectivity technologies compared to the energy sa-
supply chains and improve overall operational efficiency. vings and efficiency increases they offer?
High-quality network access could enable self-driving
connected vehicles equipped with features even in re- — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
mote locations.
• Impact: Countries from the global south stand to be-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How can the
nefit significantly from advanced connectivity technolo-
dual challenge of too many signals in the crowded elec-
gies and cheap global coverage in the future.
tromagnetic spectrum and increased demand for wire-
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How can
less communications be overcome? How might the tech-
concerns about data privacy, confidentiality, integrity and
nical architecture of computing systems evolve thanks
security be dealt with? Can the wide variety of stakehol-
to connectivity technologies (e.g. cloud, edge)? Which
ders (e.g. public infrastructure agencies, automotive in-
aspect of use cases should be addressed by advanced
dustry, tech industry) cooperate adequately to ensure the
connectivity methods (5G, 6G, space), and which use
necessary regulation and standardisation?
cases can be satisfied by more cost-efficient legacy ap-
proaches (e.g. 4G)?

54
 communication
WEAK SIGNALS: › New materials and digital production: Digital
connectivity is a cornerstone technology for digital pro-
› Deere & Co. is collaborating with SpaceX to offer in-
duction methods, such as the industrial internet of things.
ternet connectivity in rural USA and Brazil via Starlink.
› Renewable energy and resilience: Digital connec-
› GM has partnered with AT&T to equip several vehicle
tivity can enable smart energy grids. It can also reduce
models with 5G mobile communications with the aim of
energy use for example in industrial settings that make
enhancing transmission speeds for improved software
use of it.
performance, navigation and media streaming.
› Human enhancement technologies: Digital connec-
› Dreamworld AR, a US start-up, is creating a lightweight
tivity is key for human enhancement technologies in
headset with enhanced resolution and 5G connectivity,
which communications and networking play a role.
making it able to connect to various devices easily.
› Cyber technologies: Digital connectivity technologies
› Ukrainian start-up nect World is introducing a thin,
are arguably the most important part of cyberspace, as
portable modem offering fast internet anywhere.
they provide the means for connection between its parts.
› Omnispace and Lacuna have announced a collabo-
› Robotic and autonomous systems: Connectivity is
ration to deliver a global LoRaWAN® internet of things
key in robotic applications where more than one robot is
service.
involved (e.g. robotic swarms).

INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS:

INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
› Data science and AI: Increased connectivity will
› Changing nature of work: Improved connectivity
contribute to the future exponential increase of gene-
could further accelerate current trends such as remote
rated data. AI methods can be used to enhance 6G ser-
working.
vices, for example, by means of smart networks and spec-
› Changing security paradigm: Increased connectivity
trum use management.
could pose data security risks.
› Immersive technologies: Digital connectivity is a
› Continuing urbanisation: Digital connectivity could
key enabler for cloud-based immersive technologies, for
be key for smart city infrastructure.
example portable, high-definition immersive technology
› Diversification of education and learning: Digital
headsets.
connectivity could enable novel education and learning
› Quantum technologies: None. Quantum encryption
approaches, such as remote augmented or reality lear-
and decryption (quantum computing) technologies could
ning.
offer security improvements and pose security hazards.
› Expanding influence of East and South: Countries
› Sensor technologies: Digital connectivity is a cor-
from the global south stand to benefit significantly in
nerstone technology for future ubiquitous sensor
the future from advanced connectivity technologies and
networks.
cheap global coverage.
› New space technologies: Space-based services are
› Shifting health challenges: There are significant ap-
a main component of digital connectivity technologies.
plications of connectivity in the medical sector, for exa-
Digital connectivity methods could also prove useful in
mple, connected medical devices can monitor chronic
space applications (e.g. exploration).
diseases in real time.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Gallager, R., “Principles of Digital Communications I”, MIT OpenCourseWare, Course materials, 2006,
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/6-450-principles-of-digital-communications-i-fall-2006/resources/book_1/
— Grami, A., “Introduction to Digital Communications”, Elsevier, Book, 2016,
https://svbitec.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/introductiontodigitalcommunications2015.pdf
— Grijpink, F., “The key barriers to realizing advanced connectivity’s full value”, McKinsey & co., Blog post, 2020,
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/digital-blog/the-key-barriers-to-realizing-advanced-connectivitys-full-value
— Andrusenko, J. et al., “Future Trends in Commercial Wireless Communications and Why They Matter to the Military”, Johns Hopkins APL
Technical Digest, Vol. 33(1), 2015,
https://secwww.jhuapl.edu/techdigest/Content/techdigest/pdf/V33-N01/33-01-Andrusenko.pdf
— Grijpink, F. et al., “Connected world: An evolution in connectivity beyond the 5G revolution”, McKinsey Global Institute, Discussion paper, 2020,
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/technology%20media%20and%20telecommunications/telecommunications/our%20
insights/connected%20world%20an%20evolution%20in%20connectivity%20beyond%20the%205g%20revolution/mgi_connected-world_dis-
cussion-paper_february-2020.pdf
— Akyildiz, I. F. et al., “6G and Beyond: The Future of Wireless Communications Systems”, IEEE Access, vol. 8, pp. 133995-134030, 2020,
https://ianakyildiz.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/6G-and-Beyond-The-Future-of-Wireless-Communications-Systems.pdf
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

55
 Robotic

2.11 ROBOTIC AND AUTONOMOUS

SYSTEMS
SMART MACHINES WORKING FOR
AND WITH HUMANS

DESCRIPTION: mples. Using robotics and autonomous systems for these

types of tasks reduces the need for human labour and the
Autonomy is the ability of a system to respond to un- attendant costs.
certain situations by independently composing and selec-
ting from different courses of action to accomplish goals Dirty and dangerous tasks involve the handling of ha-
based on knowledge and a contextual understanding of zardous substances, exposure to unsanitary conditions
the world, itself and the situation. Autonomy is characte- and in general tasks that put the integrity or health of
rised by degrees of self-directed behaviour (levels of au- humans at risk. In factories, for example, autonomous
tonomy), ranging from fully manual to fully autonomous. robots can take over tasks that involve handling toxic
Robotics is the study of designing and building autono- or hazardous materials. Autonomous robots can also
mous systems spanning all levels of autonomy (including explore underground tunnels for minerals and perform
full human control). rescue tasks in disaster areas.

Robotic and autonomous systems are mainly deployed Dear tasks are those where one cannot afford to err.
to take on dull, dirty and dangerous, and dear tasks (the If done well, robotic and autonomous systems can eli-
four D’s of robotisation). minate human error in these tasks, while also reducing
cost and increasing efficiency levels. Such tasks include
Dull tasks include repetitive and tedious tasks. These can autonomous means of transportation, defence and se-
range, for instance, from manufacturing to data input and curity, and medical operations, for example robotically
logistics. The use of autonomous vehicles in logistics and performed surgery.
warehouses as well as in agricultural tasks are good exa-

56
Robotic functions can be categorised in the general cate- • A fully autonomous system executes tasks from
gories of sense (e.g. sensing and perceiving), plan (e.g. high-level objectives with extensive situational aware-
sense making, decision making, control), and act (e.g. ness, prognostics and decision-making authority without
actuation, manipulation, locomotion). Autonomous and human intervention.
robotic systems can perform these tasks with various le-
vels of autonomy. Robotic autonomy can be categorised In the future, an ever-increasing number of challenging
along a spectrum, depending on which of these functions tasks from the four D categories will be performed at
are automated and at what level. A typical framework higher and higher levels of autonomy. The level of auto-
categorises five levels of autonomy: nomy for each task in each use case will depend on the
mission requirements, technical capabilities and limita-
• Remotely controlled with a human in the loop, ma-
tions, and the legal/policy constraints. Human-machine
king all the decisions.
collaboration will be a key element of such systems.
• Simple automation with some automation tech-
niques to reduce operator workload.
The increasing viability of robotic and autonomous sys-
• Remotely operated with an operator allowing on-
tems is driven by technological factors and other factors
board systems to do the controlling and only deciding
in all three key functions of robotics: cheaper and smaller
where to go, when and what to do once there.
sensors, more agile, capable, small, and cheaper actua-
• Highly automated or semi-autonomous systems per-
tors, and advances in computing, autonomy and artificial
form complex tasks, understand the environment, adjust
intelligence. These developments allow for better auto-
their mission dynamically, require limited human supervi-
nomous decision making, sense making and planning by
sion and adapt to failures and changes.
robots.

IMPACT AND THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES

AND CHALLENGES:

The table below summarises the functions that are generally provided by the use of ro-
botic and autonomous systems, which impact metrics for these functions are expected to
improve and a number of example applications that these improvements would enable.

HIGH-LEVEL CATEGORISATION EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS

POSSIBLE FUTURE
OF ROBOTIC AND AUTONOMOUS
IMPROVEMENTS ENABLED
SYSTEMS

• DECREASE OF AMOUNT
OF LABOUR. • MANUFACTURING.
DULL FUNCTIONS
• INCREASE OF PRODUCTION • WAREHOUSE LOGISTICS.
FLEXIBILITY. • GUARD DUTY.

• DECREASE IN RISK TO
HUMAN LABOUR. • SEARCH AND RESCUE.
DIRTY AND DANGEROUS • DECREASE OF ASSOCIATED
• UNDERGROUND PROSPECTING
FUNCTIONS COSTS.
AND MINING.
• ENABLING PREVIOUSLY
UNFEASIBLE USE CASES.

• MANUFACTURING.
• DECREASE OF HUMAN ERROR • MEDICAL APPLICATIONS E.G.
IN COSTLY APPLICATIONS. AUTOMATED SURGERY.
DEAR FUNCTIONS
• DECREASE OF RISK TO HUMAN • SECURITY AND MILITARY
LIFE. APPLICATIONS.
• LAB AUTOMATION.

57
Robotic
Below, we will discuss the impact and the main — ECONOMIC:
uncertainties and challenges of obotic and auto-
• Impact: The above improvements will have a dramatic
nomous systems for each category:
impact. By taking care of dull tasks, overall labour costs
could be dramatically reduced and human labour could
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
be freed up to take care of more productive tasks. When
• Impact: Robotic and autonomous systems will disrupt performing dirty and dangerous jobs, they safeguard hu-
the employment market. Demand for dull, dirty, dange- man capital and the associated costs of mitigating and
rous and dear labour is expected to be reduced over time, treating the risks associated with these activities. When
while new jobs are created in robotic and autonomous carrying out dear tasks, they reduce the costs associated
systems-related jobs, such as in programming, design with critical errors that humans would make and add va-
and system maintenance. Collaborative work with ro- lue by allowing the performance of more of these dear
botic and autonomous systems will change how work is tasks.
carried out. Overall, robotic and autonomous systems can • Main uncertainties and challenges: Will specific
yield high-potential social advantages such as increased use cases for robotic and autonomous systems be com-
safety, a better quality of life and cost savings. petitive, and at what levels of autonomy? How will tech
• Main uncertainties and challenges: What will be companies disrupt incumbent companies in their respec-
the net effect of robotic and autonomous systems on tive sectors?
employment? How will any of the social benefits of ro-
botic and autonomous systems be socially distributed? — ENVIRONMENTAL:
How can issues surrounding human-machine collabora-
• Impact: Autonomous and robotic systems will affect
tion (e.g. increased cognitive load, the need for training,
the environmental footprint in different sectors in diffe-
a change of working habits) be overcome? What ethical
rent ways. Autonomous systems can have significant be-
challenges may arise, for example for defence and secu-
nefits for some environmental issues, for example clea-
rity applications, and how can they be overcome?
ning microplastics from the oceans and monitoring and
putting out forest fires. Alternatively, the increased de-
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
mand for resources and energy to support these systems
• Impact: A wide variety of sectors will be affected by could have a negative net impact.
advancements in robotic and autonomous systems. In- • Main uncertainties and challenges: How will the
dustrial robots are already being widely deployed in a energy and resource efficiency of robotic and autono-
wide range of manufacturing industries. More capable mous systems evolve? Are there feasible and practical
robots will be able to replace human labour, for example use cases
in agriculture. Automated driving is poised to disrupt the
transportation and logistics sectors, also considering ad- — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
vances towards more reliable autonomy. In healthcare,
• Impact: Robotic and automated systems in the mili-
applications include surgery assistance, hospital logis-
tary and security sector could have a strong impact on
tics, patient rehabilitation and long-term care. In military
strategic stability, making war more or less likely. More
applications, robotic and autonomous systems can have
autonomous vehicles and platforms will tend to collect
an impact on the battlefield (e.g. providing assistance to
a growing amount of user data, raising implications for
soldiers, targeting and as weapons platforms) on opera-
privacy and data security.
tional support (e.g. logistics and planning) as well as on
• Main uncertainties and challenges: How will data
intelligence and reconnaissance.
collection, privacy and security be regulated? How will
• Main uncertainties and challenges: Will the very
varying degrees of regulation affect the viability of some
high reliability of automated and autonomous systems
use cases?
required be achieved for specific applications (e.g. trans-
portation)? What level of autonomy will be necessary for
many of these applications, and what will the role of hu-
mans be within them?

58
 systems
WEAK SIGNALS: › Renewable energy and resilience: Highly autono-
mous processes can be used, for example, to increase
› Automotive manufacturers and tech companies are col-
efficiency in the management of energy production and
laborating on self-driving technology.
distribution. Robotic systems can be useful throughout
› The Chinese startup Unitree is developing a ChatGPT-
the life cycle of renewable energy systems, from produc-
based robot dog.
tion and operation to maintenance.
› Airbus is developing a pilot system designed to aid in
› Human enhancement technologies: Robotic and au-
in-flight emergencies.
tonomous systems are expected to play a central role as
› BotBuilt, a US start-up, is creating pioneering techno-
auxiliary systems for human enhancement technologies.
logy to automate house construction.
The latter will also serve as a key technology for robo-
› University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is de-
tic-human interface methods.
veloping an autonomous robotic needle for medical use.
› Cyber technologies: Autonomous and robotic sys-
tems are part of the cyber domain.
› Digital communication: Digital communication will
INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER TRENDS:
play a central role in communications e.g. in distributed
› Data science and AI: Increased use of intelligent, wi- robotic systems and systems for remote operations.
dely distributed, ubiquitous, cheap, interconnected sen-
sors and autonomous entities (physical or virtual) will
lead to volumes of data. Data science and artificial intel- INTERACTIONS WITH MEGATRENDS:
ligence methods can both take advantage of this wealth
› Aggravating resource scarcity and Growing
of data, as well as enable its analysis.
consumption: Robotic and autonomous systems will en-
› Immersive technologies: Immersive technologies will
able growth in the production of products and resources.
be a central building block of any human-robotic collabo-
› Changing nature of work: Robotic and autonomous
ration interface and effort.
systems are a key driver of this megatrend and will re-
› Quantum technologies: Quantum computing might
quire that the workforce be retrained or upskilled.
become relevant to planning, decision-making and opti-
› Changing security paradigm: Robotic and autono-
misation problems in robotics and autonomy.
mous systems will play a key role in the security para-
› Sensor technologies: New robotic and autonomous
digm of the future by augmenting surveillance capabi-
platforms will host widely distributed, ubiquitous, cheap,
lities, facilitating rapid threat responses and introducing
interconnected sensors, thus enabling many applications.
new challenges such as cybersecurity risks and ethical
› New space technologies: New space technologies
dilemmas.
are critical for the infrastructure needed for key robotic
› Continuing urbanisation: Autonomous transporta-
and autonomous systems applications, such as positio-
tion will be key for increasingly urbanised societies.
ning, navigation and control to enable for example the
› Widening inequalities: The replacement of many jobs
industrial internet of things. Robotic and autonomous
by robotic and autonomous systems, and the increasing
systems in space can make many key use cases possible,
part that machinery plays in production over labour, mi-
such as in-orbit servicing and orbit debris removal.
ght feed into this trend.
› New materials and digital production: Robotic and
› Increasing influence of new governing systems:
autonomous systems are central to future manufacturing
Robotic and autonomous systems might be used for re-
methods and concepts, such as for Industry 4.0. Novel
pression.
materials can enable more novel use cases for robotic
› Shifting health challenges: Novel medical and care
systems.
robotics might help in addressing these challenges.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Reding, D.F. et al., “Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040", NATO Science & Technology Organisation, Report, 2020,
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/4/pdf/190422-ST_Tech_Trends_Report_2020-2040.pdf
— Beer, J. M. et al., "Toward a framework for levels of robot autonomy in human-robot interaction”, Journal of Human-Robot Interaction,
vol. 3(2), pp. 74-99, 2014,
https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.5898/JHRI.3.2.Beer
— Langefeld, B. et al., “Rise of the machines – How robots and artificial intelligence are shaping the future of autonomous production”,
Roland Berger, Report, 2019,
https://www.rolandberger.com/publications/publication_pdf/roland_berger__autonomous_production_rise_of_the_machines.pdf
— Bowers, J. et al., “2022 Emerging technology trends, market and legal insights for innovators”, Perkins Coie LLP, Report, 2022,
https://www.perkinscoie.com/images/content/2/5/250469/2022-Emerging-Tech-Trends-Report.pdf
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

59
3 Megatrends
While technological advancements offer glimpses of The megatrends can be grouped into three broad cate-
possibilities, broader societal or environmental shifts gories:
paint a more complex picture. Megatrends are powerful • Socioeconomic trends: These megatrends encompass
forces that exert a long-term influence on this picture. shifts in demographics, education, work and inequality.
These factors together shape the direction in which glo- • Environmental trends: These megatrends address re-
bal development is heading. They represent fundamental source scarcity, climate change and environmental de-
shifts in behaviour, values and norms, influencing multi- gradation.
ple aspects of human life, geopolitics and organisational • Geopolitical trends: These megatrends reflect changes
operations. Understanding these megatrends is crucial in the global landscape. They include the emergence of
for strategic planning. Unlike micro-trends (fashions or new powerful countries and the growing importance of
passing interests), megatrends are more enduring and migration.
interconnected. They act as the underlying currents sha-
ping the future. For the discussion of the megatrends, a simplified version
of the technology trend report format was used. A defini-
Scenario planning benefits greatly from incorporating tion and description of the trend is provided. A discussion
megatrends. By considering these long-term forces, a wi- on the possible future development of the trend is pro-
der range of possible futures can be explored. This allows vided for the relative near and long term. The relevance
businesses to gain the foresight to navigate not just the and impact, as well as the uncertainties and challenges
most likely path ahead, but also potential disruptions surrounding a given megatrend, are discussed in the
and unforeseen challenges that could radically alter their form of the STEEP framework (Sociological, Technologi-
operating environment. cal, Economical, Environmental and Political). Finally, the
weak signals occurring for the respective megatrend are
This section has categorised the European Commission's described.
megatrends hub for reference. Accelerating technologi-
cal change and hyperconnectivity was dismissed, as the It should be remembered that these are only a starting
technology trends section covers a wider range than that point. The real power comes from exploring these me-
megatrend. Woke culture is a megatrend identified from gatrends and how they interact, also in combination with
the Trendone Trend Manager macrotrends repository. It the discussed technology trends.
has been renamed to diversity-aware culture, due to the The following sections contain a report for each of the
controversial connotation of the term "woke". There- megatrends.
fore, the concluding number of megatrends discussed is
fourteen.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— OECD, "Megatrends affecting science, technology and innovation", in OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016, Report, 2016,
https://doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_outlook-2016-4-en

60
3.1 AGGRAVATING
RESOURCE SCARCITY
A DISCONNECT BETWEEN HUMAN CONSUMPTION
AND THE PLANET'S FINITE RESOURCES

DESCRIPTION: resources more equally. This otherwise bears the poten-

tial to cause political instability, as countries compete
The need for essential resources like water, food, ener- for access to limited resources. Human activities have
gy, land and minerals is growing quickly. This growth already changed 75% of the land and 66% of the sea.
is causing these resources to become scarcer and more This exceeds the planetary boundaries, raising concerns
expensive and this scarcity is in turn causing problems for the ecosystem's long-term sustainability. Water scar-
worldwide. These include water shortages, food scarcity city will become increasingly acute in regions already
and energy crises. Human well-being depends on certain facing stress, leading to conflicts over access and alloca-
resources. However, the Earth has a limited capacity and tion. Food production will face challenges from climate
is struggling to keep up with increasing demands. This change and land degradation, threatening the food se-
situation is pushing us beyond planetary boundaries and curity for vulnerable populations. Energy demands will
raises concerns for our long-term survival. This trend has continue to rise, with implications for energy access,
been noticeable for many decades and has sped up re- affordability and environmental sustainability. Efforts to
cently, thus highlighting the need to quickly improve how address these issues will require innovative solutions and
we manage resources. greater collaboration across sectors and nations.

In the near term (multiple years to a decade), the In the long term, the sustainable use of natural re-
world will be facing problems brought about by a rising sources will be pivotal for humanity’s survival. Critical
global population and economic growth. This situation resources could become scarce, calling for technological
is causing a higher need for resources. In particular, the breakthroughs and advancements in material science. In-
US and the EU-28 are greatly increasing global excess ternational cooperation is required to effectively manage
material use, stressing the importance of sharing natural and address inequalities in access. This will help prevent
major geopolitical tensions over resources.

61
Aggravating resource scarcity

Below, we discuss the impact of aggravating re- Main uncertainties and challenges:
source scarcity for each category:

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
In the realm of socio-cultural dynamics, the intensifying How will changing societal attitudes towards consump-
scarcity of resources may prompt shifts in societal values. tion and sustainability impact resource management
Individuals might actively engage in shaping policies and practices? Will there be widespread adoption of suffi-
behaviours to prioritise environmental impact over ex- ciency-oriented behaviours, or will consumption patterns
cess. However, this also disproportionately affects margi- continue to drive resource depletion?
nalised communities. The impact of aggravating resource
scarcity is felt across societies globally.

— TECHNOLOGICAL: — TECHNOLOGICAL:
Emerging technologies such as blockchain and artifi- What role will emerging technologies play in mitigating
cial intelligence offer potential solutions to manage re- resource scarcity and how quickly can they be imple-
sources more efficiently. Innovations in urban farming mented on a global scale? What are the potential unin-
and vertical agriculture demonstrate new approaches to tended consequences or limitations of relying on techno-
resource management. Additive manufacturing and recy- logical solutions to address resource scarcity?
cling are pivotal in fostering more sustainable production
practices. However, technological advancements must
be coupled with broader societal changes to address re-
source scarcity effectively.

— ECONOMIC: — ECONOMIC:
More than 50% of the global gross domestic product What economic shifts are necessary to promote sustai-
relies directly on nature. Rising resource prices due to nable consumption and equitable resource distribution?
increased demand affect economic growth and global How will businesses balance profitability with environ-
trade patterns. This underlines the importance of using mental and social responsibility in addressing resource
resources sustainably and sharing them fairly. To deal scarcity?
with resource shortages and to meet the demand for sus-
tainability, companies are adopting environmental, social
and governance criteria in their operations. A push for
sustainable economic

— ENVIRONMENTAL: — ENVIRONMENTAL:
Human activities have already exceeded the planetary How will ecosystems adapt to increasing resource deple-
boundaries, leading to concerns about long-term ecosys- tion and environmental degradation? What long-term
tem sustainability. Over 90% of extracted materials are consequences will failing to stop depleting resources
wasted, with only 8.6% remaining in the circular eco- have on biodiversity and ecosystem services?
nomy. Climate change and land degradation pose signifi-
cant challenges to food production and water availability,
exacerbating resource scarcity. Efforts to protect biodi-
versity and transition to resilient energy sources demons-
trate a commitment to sustainability despite regulatory
and economic obstacles.

— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:

Global governance is evolving to address resource issues, What geopolitical tensions might arise from compe-
which has been evident from discussions at forums such tition over scarce resources and how can international
as the United Nations focusing on equitable resource use cooperation mitigate these tensions? What regulatory
globally. Geopolitical events impacting fossil fuel avai- frameworks are needed to incentivise sustainable re-
lability often highlight the importance of resource and source management practices and how can they be im-
energy efficiency. These elements are vital for geopoliti- plemented effectively across different regions and sec-
cal strategies, as competing for scarce resources could tors?
increase tensions and conflicts, highlighting the impor-
tance of international cooperation.

62
 Aggravating resource scarcity

WEAK SIGNALS:
There are signs of a major trend of worsening resource
scarcity. More industries are adopting environmental
rules and sustainability standards. This shows a rising
awareness of the importance of saving resources and
cutting down on waste. The increase in urban farming
and vertical agriculture is demonstrating new ways of
managing resources in order to form self-sufficient cities.

Consumers are changing their behaviour, showing a

shift towards sufficiency. They are demanding products
or services that promote low waste and long use, e.g. in
the fashion industry. These should be based on circularity
and reuse. Business ventures are meeting these customer
demands. They are doing this by focusing on ESG, which
stands for environmental, social and corporate gover-
nance. This means they evaluate their operations based
on these criteria.

Furthermore, the rising prices of essential resources

coupled with growing demand from emerging econo-
mies are escalating resource scarcity globally. Commu-
nities at the municipal level are focusing on protecting
biodiversity and ecosystems in their construction plans.
Meanwhile, state governments are moving towards more
resilient energy sources by using renewables. These ini-
tiatives show a dedication to sustainability and using re-
sources wisely, despite being confronted with obstacles
such as regulatory rules and economic restraints. Colla-
boration and proactive efforts are essential to addressing
resource scarcity effectively.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Jutila, E. et. al., “Trend report 2023 by VTT Business Intelligence”, VTT Business Intelligence, Presentation, 2023
— European Commission, “Aggravating resource scarcity”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/aggravating-resource-scarcity_en
— European Commission, “Changing behaviours”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/changing-behaviours_en
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

63
3.2 CHANGING
NATURE OF WORK
UPSKILLING AND RETRAINING
FOR A TECHNOLOGY-DRIVEN WORKPLACE

DESCRIPTION: tal transformation. The gig economy and freelancing will

continue to grow, providing alternative employment mo-
The Changing nature of work is about how jobs, career dels. The digital transformation and technologies enhan-
paths and company structures change. This happens cing automation are presenting both challenges and op-
because of new technology, global connections and portunities that reshape jobs and the necessary skill sets.
changes in society and the economy. This transformation Skill shortages in certain sectors are likely, as the demand
could be an enabler of increased flexibility, decentralised for new technical skills outpaces the supply.
work and a healthier work-life balance. It is driving the
normalisation of the gig economy and is also causing job In the longer term, the transformative grip of techno-
displacements in some industries. logy on industries and labour could encourage the dis-
cussion universal basic income. This will be necessary to
In the near term (multiple years to a decade), we address the impact of AI and automation. Furthermore,
expect to see a continued rise in remote, flexible, pur- governmental taxes on algorithms that displace human
pose-driven work arrangements. These are demanded by labour could be needed to maintain government revenue.
new generations entering the workforce. New genera- Work could change from traditional models, with indivi-
tions entering the workforce, coupled with older genera- duals potentially having multiple jobs. This will lead to
tions working longer, contribute to this dynamic. Techno- a gig economy of self-employment. The first generation
logical advancements will change job roles and the skills growing up with AI, called “AI Alphas”, find it easy to use
needed. There will be a big focus on IT and programming smart technologies from a young age. They learn how to
skills, which can be attributed to automation and digi- shape these technologies.

64
 Changing nature of work

Below, we discuss the impact of aggravating re- Main uncertainties and challenges:
source scarcity for each category:

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
Societal and cultural shifts are altering the demands for a How will society adapt to the increasing prevalence of
work-life balance and job satisfaction, with an increased remote work and non-traditional employment models?
desire for flexible, independent and meaningful roles. Will there be a cultural shift towards valuing flexibility
These changes in work dynamics are influencing the and autonomy over job security?
societal norms around employment and career trajecto-
ries, with a marked shift towards remote work, a work-
life balance and individual autonomy. The rise of the gig
economy also underscores a move away from traditional
employment models towards project-based tasks and
self-employment.

— TECHNOLOGICAL: — TECHNOLOGICAL:
Automation and digital transformation are changing job What will be the long-term impact of automation and
roles. This change is raising the demand for information digital transformation on job roles and the overall labour
technology and programming skills due to the technolo- market? How will individuals and organisations cope
gical progress made, which creates innovation opportu- with the rapid pace of technological change and the need
nities. However, it is also causing problems such as job for continuous upskilling?
displacement and skill mismatches. There's a growing
need for upskilling, especially in IT and programming, in
order to adapt to these changes. Additionally, there have
been advancements in communication technology sup-
port remote work, allowing for collaboration without any
physical constraints.

— ECONOMIC: — ECONOMIC:
The gig economy and freelancing offer alternative work What measures can be taken to address skill shortages in
opportunities, transforming traditional employment and critical sectors and ensure equitable access to opportuni-
affecting the economy broadly, from income distribution ties in the digital economy? How will the growth of the
to job market functioning and social welfare sustainabi- gig economy impact traditional employment structures
lity. These models also demand innovative approaches to and economic stability?
retaining top talent, while providing economic flexibility
for individuals and organisations. Yet, they may lead to
skill shortages in areas where the demand for new tech-
nical skills exceeds supply, potentially affecting economic
productivity and growth.

— ENVIRONMENTAL: — ENVIRONMENTAL:
Remote work and flexible schedules can help lower car- How can remote work and sustainable employment prac-
bon emissions by reducing commuting needs. Moreover, tices be further incentivised to maximise environmental
companies are now focusing more on sustainability and benefits? What role can governments and businesses play
social responsibility, incorporating environmental sustai- in promoting environmentally conscious work practices?
nability into their core values.

— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:

Governments and regulatory bodies may need to update What policies and regulations are needed to ensure fair
labour laws to accommodate new work models, address treatment and protection for workers in the gig economy?
job insecurity and reduce income inequality. The discus- How can governments balance the need for innovation
sion surrounding universal basic income as a response to and technological advancement with the preservation of
AI and automation's effects on jobs may grow. Additio- jobs and social stability?
nally, it could be important to regulate algorithms that
are displacing human work in order to maintain govern-
ment revenue and promote social equity.

65
Changing nature of work

WEAK SIGNALS:
Signals show that the way in which organisations ar-
range their workforce and manage employment is
changing significantly. First, more organisations are
adopting remote work policies and flexible schedules.
This change is driven by technological advancements
and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend re-
flects a growing recognition of the benefits of remote
work in terms of flexibility, productivity and work-life
balance. Additionally, the expansion of the gig economy
and freelance platforms marks a major change in em-
ployment models. More people are choosing non-tra-
ditional, project-based work arrangements. This shift
towards gig work highlights a desire for autonomy and
flexibility among workers, as well as the emergence of
new opportunities in the digital economy. Furthermore,
companies are now focusing more on sustainability and
meaningful work. This is seen in their values and mission
statements. It shows a larger change in society towards
ethical and socially responsible business actions. Compa-
nies are now understanding how important it is to share
the same values as their employees and customers. This
has caused them to start programs that focus on environ-
mental sustainability and social impact. These manifes-
tations collectively indicate a fundamental reimagining
of work and employment structures. Organisations and
individuals are embracing new ways of working that
prioritise flexibility, purpose and social responsibility.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Michael Astor et al., “VORAUS:schau 112 Themenblätter”, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Report, 2022,
https://www.vorausschau.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/vorausschau/de/112_Themenbl%C3%A4tter.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3
— European Commission, “Access to education and training”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 13.12.2023,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/topic/changing-nature-work/access-to-education-and-training_en
— European Commission, “Changing nature of work”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 13.12.2023,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/changing-nature-work_en
— European Commission, “Digital transformation”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 13.12.2023,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/digital-transformation_en
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 15.01.2024, https://www.trendmanager.com/
— European Commission, “New organisations of work”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 13.12.2023,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/new-organisations-work_en
— European Commission, “Purpose driven work”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 13.12.2023,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/purpose-driven-work_en

66
3.3 CHANGING SECURITY
PARADIGM
SAFEGUARDING TOMORROW: NAVIGATING
THE EVOLVING SECURITY LANDSCAPE

DESCRIPTION: In the near term (multiple years to a decade), tradi-

tional warfare is evolving. Hybrid threats, cyber warfare
The changing security paradigm reflects a shift in how and the militarisation of outer space are becoming more
societies perceive and address security challenges. Tra- common. Hybrid warfare, which blends conventional and
ditionally, security focused primarily on military threats political warfare, poses a challenging defence scenario,
between nations. This megatrend covers a wide range of necessitating innovative security approaches. Cybers-
security issues. It includes both traditional and non-tra- pace, now a crucial war domain, attracts extensive state
ditional threats. Non-traditional threats include cyberat- investment and anticipates intensified cyberattacks. The
tacks, conflicts caused by climate change, and terrorism. race for space supremacy has been revived, potentially
They are driven by various factors, including technologi- transforming space into a field of geopolitical conflict.
cal advancements, evolving geopolitical landscapes and Moreover, societal changes, including increased connec-
social changes. This shift impacts not only governments tivity and migration, will further shape the security lands-
and military institutions, but also businesses, communi- cape.
ties and individuals.
In the long term, emerging technologies could enable
The global security scene is changing deeply. New unprecedented surveillance capabilities, raising concerns
players, technologies and geopolitical trends are driving about privacy and civil liberties. There is a deepening re-
this change. This shifting paradigm is characterised by the liance on technological innovations and unconventional
emergence of hybrid threats. Cyberspace is increasingly tactics in security strategies. As hypersonic glide vehicles
vulnerable to attacks, particularly on vital infrastructure. and quantum technologies develop, they will likely be
At the same time, outer space is seeing more military ac- added to military arsenals, which will shape how future
tivity. conflicts unfold.

Advanced technologies are changing international rela- Additionally, environmental degradation and resource
tions and political power. These include artificial intelli- scarcity may exacerbate conflicts, necessitating inno-
gence, autonomous weapons, big data, biotechnologies, vative approaches to address climate-induced security
hypersonic glide vehicles and quantum technologies. challenges. The role of international cooperation and
governance mechanisms in managing global security
threats will become increasingly crucial.
67
Changing security paradigm

Below, we discuss the impact of the changing se- Main uncertainties and challenges:
curity paradigm for each category:

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
Cyberattacks are becoming more common, exposing How will changing views on privacy and security affect
weaknesses in crucial infrastructure. This trend erodes the use of surveillance technologies? How will they in-
public confidence in digital systems. People's opinions on fluence government interference? How do rising public
security are shifting, with a growing focus on privacy, sur- awareness and activism about security and privacy issues
veillance, and activism. The conflict in Ukraine has broken affect policymaking and governance?
the trust in a secure Europe. Moreover, climate disasters,
terrorism and global violence are making people feel less
safe.

— TECHNOLOGICAL: — TECHNOLOGICAL:
Artificial intelligence, the internet of things and What are the ethical dilemmas and regulatory issues
blockchain technologies are evolving quickly. They are re- stemming from developing and deploying advanced mili-
volutionising security through enhanced threat detection tary technology such as autonomous weapons and quan-
and better surveillance. Additionally, quantum computing tum technologies? How will the integration of emerging
offers advanced surveillance but raises ethical concerns technologies into security strategies affect the balance of
about privacy and potential misuse by authoritarian go- power and international relations?
vernments. The militarisation of cyberspace and outer
space represents new warfare and security fronts.

— ECONOMIC: — ECONOMIC:
The evolving security landscape requires considerable What are the economic implications of escalating cyber-
investments in cybersecurity and defence technology, af- security threats and the need for significant investments
fecting economic priorities and resources. Security spen- in defence technologies? How will companies adjust to
ding could boost the economy by funding defence, cy- changes in security, specifically regarding supply chain
bersecurity and infrastructure safeguarding. On the other resilience and intellectual property safety?
hand, economic disparities and competition for resources
may spark security challenges. They could disrupt trade,
destabilise markets and increase defence spending at the
expense of social and development projects. Furthermore,
hybrid threats and cyber warfare present challenges for
businesses, impacting supply chains, intellectual property
and economic stability.

— ENVIRONMENTAL: — ENVIRONMENTAL:
Environmental degradation, climate change and natu- How will environmental degradation and resource scar-
ral disasters are worsening security by exacerbating re- city exacerbate conflicts and influence security priorities
source scarcity, triggering conflicts and displacing popu- and resource allocation? What innovative approaches are
lations. These issues are amplifying social tensions and needed to address climate-induced security challenges?
are threatening stability, leading to migration and food How will climate-induced security challenges impact eco-
shortages. They are heightening conflicts over territories nomic and geopolitical dynamics?
and resources, necessitating innovative solutions and
global cooperation for effective crisis management.

— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:

Geopolitical shifts and regulatory frameworks influence How will international cooperation and governance
alliances, defence policies and international cooperation. mechanisms address global security threats amid increa-
Rising nationalism, land conflicts and power shifts affect sing geopolitical tensions and territorial disputes? How
security plans and trade ties. This impacts the stability will hybrid threats and non-state actors influence global
of regions and worldwide security cooperation. Trends regulatory frameworks and security strategies?
in geopolitics and power dynamics are driving military
expansion into space. Meanwhile, territorial and resource
tensions are underscoring the need for international col-
laboration and governance in addressing global security
challenges.

68
 Changing security paradigm

WEAK SIGNALS:
Early indicators of the changing security paradigm are
multifaceted and encompass various domains. Cyberat-
tacks are becoming more common. One example is the
SolarWinds Supply Chain Attack on governmental com-
puter systems in the US in 2020. This shows that critical
infrastructure is vulnerable to digital threats.

At the same time, both governments and non-govern-

ment groups are using hybrid warfare strategies and
are also developing advanced military technologies. This
shows how conflicts and security threats are changing.
Moreover, the growth in military activities in space by
new actors is highlighting a change in the range of glo-
bal politics. Both military and civilian surveillance opera-
tions are being deployed in space.

Additionally, growing geopolitical tensions over terri-

torial disputes and resource extraction are contributing
to the complex security environment. The rise of non-
state actors and terrorist organisations exploiting so-
cietal grievances further complicates security dynamics.
Heightened public awareness and activism on security
and privacy issues reflect evolving societal attitudes
towards security measures. Social media also plays a role
in shaping public perception through propaganda, un-
derscoring the importance of digital security and critical
thinking in modern conflict.

Furthermore, the use of new technologies for monitoring

and forecasting crime shows how tech improvements are
being incorporated into security plans. Together, these
manifestations emphasise the need for proactive mea-
sures and strategic foresight to address emerging secu-
rity challenges effectively.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Changing conflict causalities”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/changing-conflict-causalities_en
— European Commission, “Changing security paradigm”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/changing-security-paradigm_en
— European Commission, “Future battlefields”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/future-battlefields_en
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/
— European Commission, “Shift in the geopolitical landscape”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/shift-geopolitical-landscape_en
— Unknown author, “Significant Cyber Incidents”, Strategic Technologies Program CSIS, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://www.csis.org/programs/strategic-technologies-program/significant-cyber-incidents
— European Commission, “Space becomes a new area of expansion”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/space-becomes-new-area-expansion_en

69
3.4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
EARTH ON THE BRINK, FROM CRISIS
TO TRANSFORMATION

DESCRIPTION: and individuals will adopt more measures, aiming to re-

duce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustaina-
Climate change and environmental degradation are two bility. Additionally, they will adjust to changing environ-
of the most pressing challenges facing humanity to- mental conditions. Regulatory frameworks will become
day. Climate change is caused by continued unabated, tougher, which will encourage eco-friendly practices and
anthropogenic pollution and the release of greenhouse punish environmental negligence.
gases into the atmosphere. Environmental degradation is
the destruction or damage of natural environments. Both Technological innovations in renewable energy, sustai-
climate change and environmental degradation have a nable agriculture and waste management will play a
significant impact on human health, livelihoods and eco- crucial role in this transition. By 2030, emission-reducing
systems. Since the Industrial Revolution, human-induced solutions might be cost-effective and could be used in
global warming has escalated, causing rising tempera- areas responsible for 70% of the world's emissions, in-
tures, melting ice caps and extreme weather. The need to cluding transportation, energy, buildings, agriculture and
deal with this major trend comes from wanting to lessen land use.
its bad effects. These effects hurt ecosystems, economies
and people's well-being. Urgent environmental action is In the long term, without significant steps being taken
necessary to mitigate the harm and avoid the worst ef- to reduce climate change and environmental harm, se-
fects of climate change and environmental degradation. rious damage will be caused to the planet. Continued ad-
vancements in technology and policy interventions will
In the near term (multiple years to a decade), efforts be essential for mitigating the most severe impacts of cli-
to combat climate change and environmental degrada- mate change. Depending on our actions, potential scena-
tion are expected to intensify. Governments, businesses rios range from catastrophic environmental breakdowns
to successful transitions to sustainable societies.

70
 Climate change and environmental degradation
Below, we discuss the impact of Climate change Main uncertainties and challenges:
and environmental degradation for each cate-
gory: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
In what ways might cultural norms shape environmen-
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
tal trends in different regions? How will societal values
Awareness of environmental issues is increasing. This rise evolve in response to climate change? What uncertain-
in awareness boosts demand for sustainable practices ties surround the effectiveness of communication and
and products. It influences consumer choices, with prefe- education in raising awareness and driving behavioural
rences shifting towards sustainability, showing a higher change towards environmental issues? How do social
demand for environmental accountability. Climate events inequalities and cultural barriers influence fair partici-
such as disasters and resource shortages worsen social pation in climate action efforts, potentially exacerbating
inequalities, fuelling displacement, conflict and migra- vulnerabilities and disparities?
tion.
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
What breakthroughs are needed to achieve widespread
Renewable energy advancements, including solar and adoption of renewable energy and sustainable practices?
wind, provide fossil fuel alternatives, cutting greenhouse How will emerging technologies impact the trajectory of
gas emissions and boosting energy independence. Car- climate change and environmental degradation? How
bon capture and storage technologies capture and store does the rapid pace of technological innovation affect the
carbon dioxide from industrial and power sources, lesse- development of solutions to environmental challenges?
ning the environmental impacts. CRISPR-Cas9 genetic What uncertainties surround the long-term effectiveness
engineering innovations enhance crop resilience, tackling of innovative technologies in mitigating environmental
agricultural issues worsened by climate change. risks?

— ECONOMIC: — ECONOMIC:
Extreme weather and natural disasters are putting a lot of How do the economic risks associated with climate disas-
pressure on the infrastructure, agriculture, and insurance. ters and environmental damage impact decision-making
Investing in renewable energy and improving energy ef- regarding the transition to a low-carbon economy? What
ficiency, alongside adapting to a low-carbon economy, is challenges arise in conducting cost-benefit analyses and
necessary. Regulatory measures such as carbon pricing making investment decisions amidst the resulting econo-
are aligning economic incentives with environmental mic uncertainties? How do economic disparities hinder
goals, promoting a collective effort to combat climate fair global cooperation and the equitable distribution of
change. Moreover, growing investment in renewable resources for climate action? What economic challenges
technologies and sustainable industries signals a shift will arise during the transition to a more sustainable eco-
towards a more environmentally conscious economy. nomy?

— ENVIRONMENTAL: — ENVIRONMENTAL:
Biodiversity loss, habitat destruction and pollution are What challenges will arise in predicting the scale and ti-
threatening ecosystems and essentials such as clean air, ming of environmental impacts due to feedback loops,
water and soil. Increasing temperatures and changing tipping points and threshold effects? How do uncertain-
weather patterns are exacerbating environmental pro- ties in climate models and projections complicate efforts
blems, leading to more droughts, wildfires and floods. The to assess and mitigate environmental risks? What uncer-
surge in greenhouse gas emissions and global tempera- tainties surround the responses and resilience of ecosys-
tures calls for urgent climate action. tems in the face of environmental changes and cascading
effects?
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
International agreements such as the Paris Agreement aim
to reduce emissions via global cooperation, but geopoli- How do the political will and enforcement capacity in-
tical tensions and national interests may obstruct these fluence the success of regulatory frameworks in pro-
climate objectives. Domestic regulations significantly in- moting sustainability and penalising environmental
fluence sustainable industries by incentivising renewable violations? What uncertainties exist in the stability and
energy use and penalising environmental harm, affecting effectiveness of international agreements and treaties
corporate strategies and investments. Regulations are aimed at addressing environmental challenges? What
anticipated to strengthen, promote eco-friendly practices geopolitical tensions may arise due to competition for re-
and penalise environmental negligence, increasing pres- sources or disagreements over climate policies? How will
sure on governments for enforcement. Moreover, global international agreements and treaties evolve to address
cooperation and geopolitical tensions could arise in res- the complex challenges of climate change and environ-
ponse to resource scarcity, climate-driven migration and mental degradation? Additionally, how will regulatory
the distribution of climate action responsibility. frameworks adapt to emerging technologies and evol-
ving environmental threats?
71
Climate change and environmental degradation

WEAK SIGNALS:
Escalating greenhouse gas emissions and global tempe-
ratures highlight the urgent need for immediate climate
action. Increasingly severe extreme weather events un-
derscore the tangible impacts of climate change, necessi-
tating a multi-stakeholder response. Innovations such as
CRISPR/Cas genetic engineering offer potential solutions
by enhancing crop resilience.

Shifting consumer preferences towards sustainability

and regulatory measures, such as carbon pricing, reflect
a growing societal demand for environmental accounta-
bility. These interventions align economic incentives with
environmental goals, fostering a shared commitment
to fighting climate change. The identification of tipping
elements by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research emphasises the irreversible nature of some en-
vironmental changes.

Additionally, global protests, youth-led movements, and

calls for policy action demonstrate heightened public
awareness and activism. Growing investment in re-
newable technologies and sustainable industries signals
a shift towards a more environmentally conscious eco-
nomy. Moreover, climate-related litigation and corporate
accountability efforts hold polluters and governments
accountable, further promoting environmental responsi-
bility.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Jutila, E. et. al., “Trend report 2023 by VTT Business Intelligence”, VTT Business Intelligence, Presentation, 2023
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/
— European Commission, “Climate change and environmental degradation”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/climate-change-environmental-degradation_en
— European Commission, “Climate change continues”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/climate-change-continues_en
— European Commission, “Established practices are questioned”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/established-practices-are-questioned_en
— European Commission, “Negative impacts increase”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/negative-impacts-increase_en
— European Commission, “Outside planetary boundaries”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/outside-planetary-boundaries_en

72
3.5 CONTINUING URBANISATION A CITYSCAPE SHIFT – FROM CONCRETE
JUNGLES TO SUSTAINABLE HUBS

DESCRIPTION: In the near term (multiple years to a decade), urbani-

sation is expected to continue at an accelerated pace. By
People are moving from rural areas to cities all around 2050, the number of people living in cities is expected to
the world. They are seeking better job opportunities, ser- hit 5 billion. This increases productivity and GDP. Howe-
vices and education. This movement is part of the conti- ver, it also worsens problems, including environmental
nuing trend of urbanisation. Over the last forty years, this degradation, public health issues, housing shortages,
phenomenon has doubled the number of people living congestion and inequalities. New digital technologies
in cities. It is projected that by 2050, more than 68% of are aiding cities in addressing these challenges, fostering
the world's population will reside in urban areas. Rapid citizen engagement and transforming city services.
urbanisation will lead to technological innovation. It will
also boost economic growth. Additionally, it will cause In the long term, urbanisation is expected to further
social change. All of these factors will shape the future of intensify, particularly in developing regions. Cities will
life and governance in urban areas. become even more vital centres of economic activity and
innovation. Sustainable urban planning and governance
are essential, as they will ensure that cities can survive
and remain liveable. This is important due to emerging
challenges such as climate change and geopolitical ten-
sions.

73
Continuing urbanisation

Below, we discuss the impact of Continuing ur- Main uncertainties and challenges:
banisation for each category:

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
Urbanisation will affect cultural identities, social dyna- How might diverse populations be effectively integrated
mics and community interactions by fostering cultural while preserving cultural identities in urban settings?
diversity and new urban cultures. It can enhance social What measures can be taken to enhance social cohesion,
cohesion but might also lead to socio-economic inequa- community resilience and inclusivity in rapidly evolving
lities, cultural conflicts and issues such as social frag- urban environments?
mentation and gentrification. Addressing these issues
is crucial for ensuring social inclusion and maintaining — TECHNOLOGICAL:
cohesive urban communities.
How will emerging technologies be adopted and inte-
grated into urban environments and what are the uncer-
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
tainties surrounding this process? What are the potential
Urbanisation will boost technology in transport, in- impacts of rapid technological innovation on job markets
frastructure, energy systems and public services. Smart and societal norms in urban areas? How can cities na-
city tech and data-driven decisions will boost infrastruc- vigate the challenges of balancing technological advan-
ture efficiency, sustainability and quality of life. Yet, data cement with societal needs and concerns? What are the
privacy, the digital divide and tech dependency concerns potential ethical implications and social consequences of
may affect urban future and governance. pervasive surveillance, artificial intelligence and automa-
tion in urban environments?
— ECONOMIC:
— ECONOMIC:
Urbanisation offers chances for economic growth by tur-
ning cities into centres for innovation, entrepreneurship What strategies can be implemented to ensure the equi-
and investment. Yet, it also poses challenges, such as table distribution of resources and opportunities in urban
straining resources and infrastructure, causing economic settings? How might economic disparities and income
and social inequalities. While boosting growth by gathe- inequality be addressed as urbanisation continues to ac-
ring resources, labour and capital, it raises issues like in- celerate? What potential consequences could widening
come inequality, housing affordability and urban poverty. economic gaps pose for social cohesion and economic
Thus, it calls for inclusive economic strategies and social stability in cities?
programs to mitigate disparities.
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
In what ways might environmental considerations shape
Environmental degradation, climate change and natu- future urban planning and development initiatives? What
ral disasters are worsening security by exacerbating re- strategies can cities implement to mitigate urban sprawl,
source scarcity, triggering conflicts and displacing popu- biodiversity loss and climate change impacts while en-
lations. These issues are amplifying social tensions and suring sustainable development and resource efficiency?
are threatening stability, leading to migration and food How can urban development practices be made more
shortages. They are heightening conflicts over territories sustainable and what uncertainties exist regarding their
and resources, necessitating innovative solutions and long-term ecological impact?
global cooperation for effective crisis management.
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
What challenges do regulatory policies and governance
Urbanisation requires regulations for land use, transpor- mechanisms face in effectively managing urban growth
tation, sustainability and infrastructure investments. Lo- and development? How might geopolitical tensions and
cal governments will be key in managing urban challen- competing interests among stakeholders hinder collabo-
ges and enforcing rules. Urbanisation could impact rative efforts to address urban challenges?
geopolitical dynamics through its influence on cities'
economic and political significance. This includes issues
of resource allocation, territorial disputes and migration,
requiring cooperative strategies and diplomacy for sus-
tainable urban development.

74
 Continuing urbanisation

WEAK SIGNALS:
Early indicators offer insights into the potential of urba-
nisation trends, highlighting avenues for sustainable de-
velopment and inclusive growth. Cities are now adopting
sustainable designs that focus on being suitable for hu-
mans. This includes using green infrastructure and sustai-
nable building methods. Cities mix different types of land
use and also use renewable energy. The goal is to make
cities better places for people to live. New city concepts
are emerging with a focus on not using cars, making ci-
ties inclusive and sharing infrastructure. These concepts
also aim to use space efficiently with flexible designs.

Secondly, local groups and movements are pushing for

fair access to housing, transportation and public ser-
vices. They highlight the need for citizens to take part
in planning city development. Technological innovations
are crucial for smart city solutions, as they help make da-
ta-driven decisions. Furthermore, they encourage people
to participate in city governance.

Lastly, cities can work together through international

collaborations and knowledge-sharing platforms. These
platforms allow them to share their best practices in
urban development, resilience and sustainability. They
highlight how important global cooperation is in solving
urban challenges. Early signals are resulting in a major
change in how cities develop. They focus on protecting
the environment, fairness for all people and using new
technology. This will shape the cities of the future.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 06.03.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/
— European Commission, “Challenges faced due to urbanisation”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 06.03.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/topic/continuing-urbanisation/challenges-faced-due-to-urbanisation_en
— European Commission, “Continuing urbanisation”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 06.03.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/continuing-urbanisation_en
— European Commission, “Escalating green action and cities”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 06.03.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/escalating-green-action-cities_en
— European Commission, “Increasing importance of cities”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 06.03.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/topic/continuing-urbanisation/increasing-importance-cities_en
— European Commission, “Tech and the city”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 06.03.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/tech-city_en
— European Commission, “Trend: Big City Life”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 06.03.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/big-city-life_en

75
3.6 DIVERSIFICATION
OF EDUCATION AND LEARNING
UNLEASHING LEARNING POTENTIAL:
THE TRADITIONAL CONCEPT
OF EDUCATION NEEDS TUTORING

DESCRIPTION: learning centres and are adjusting to changes in society

and technology. Teaching will shift its focus more towar-
The world is rapidly changing, and the way in which ds learning. This shift will require new content and will
people learn is changing with it. New technologies are also need different types of learning spaces and various
changing education, new educational methods are being learning methods. Additionally, educators are taking on
introduced And new generations of learners are coming new roles as facilitators of learning, rather than just dis-
up. Together, they are making education and learning seminators of knowledge. Peer-to-peer learning, blended
more diverse. The connection between education and learning and the integration of technology are becoming
formal schools may become weaker. Instead, casual, increasingly prevalent.
and unplanned learning could become more valued. The
phrase "I don't know" is becoming obsolete. Advance- In the long term, the trajectory of the diversification of
ments in cognitive sciences and the availability of infor- education and learning is likely to continue, albeit with
mation are enabling a wide range of interests and lear- the further integration of emerging technologies and
ning methods. pedagogical approaches. Education may become even
more personalised and adaptive, catering to individual
In the near term (multiple years to a decade), the learning styles and preferences. Change will happen qui-
education landscape will witness a shift from traditio- ckly. People will need to keep learning all their lives. They
nal classrooms to exploration, customisation and coa- must become adaptable and good at teaching themsel-
ching. Schools are changing. Previously, they used to ves.
just provide knowledge; Now, they are becoming active

76
 Diversification of education and learning

Below, we discuss the impact of Diversification Main uncertainties and challenges:

of education and learning for each category:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
How will societal attitudes towards traditional education
Education is becoming more diverse. It now focuses on systems evolve in response to the increasing diversifica-
lifelong learning and adaptability. It also highlights the tion of learning methods? Will there be equitable access
importance of individuality and self-improvement. This to diversified education opportunities across different so-
change is challenging the traditional idea that education cio-economic backgrounds and geographic regions? How
is just formal schooling. It encourages inclusivity and will cultural values and beliefs influence the acceptance
makes knowledge more accessible to diverse groups. and adoption of emerging educational technologies and
pedagogical approaches? What challenges are posed by
— TECHNOLOGICAL: societal biases and how can inclusivity be ensured within
evolving educational practices?
Education has been changed by technology. It allows for
personalised learning and the use of virtual and aug-
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
mented reality in teaching. This has resulted in better
access to education and more engaging learning ex- What are the potential ethical implications of the wides-
periences through AI tutors and mixed-reality environ- pread adoption of AI-powered tutors and personalised
ments. These innovations foster a diversified and inter- learning assistants in education? How resilient are cur-
connected educational ecosystem, promoting immersive rent technological infrastructures in supporting the sca-
and interactive experiences. However, there are worries lability and accessibility of diversified learning platforms,
about digital skills, data privacy and ethics. especially in underserved areas? How can educational
systems address the challenges posed by technological
— ECONOMIC: advancements while leveraging their benefits?
Redirecting education towards skill-based, lifelong lear-
— ECONOMIC:
ning can enhance workforce productivity and adaptabi-
lity, potentially increasing economic growth. Diversified How will the cost-effectiveness of diversified education
education can boost innovation, creativity and skills de- models compare to traditional educational systems, espe-
velopment, contributing to economic competitiveness. cially in terms of infrastructure investments and resource
Tailoring to different learning styles improves workforce allocation? How will the evolving job market demand
efficiency and meets evolving market needs. Moreover, and skill requirements impact the economic viability of
new educational models and platforms offer opportuni- diversified education programs and their graduates?
ties for entrepreneurship and investment in the educa-
tion sector. Nevertheless, unequal access to high-quality — ENVIRONMENTAL:
education may exacerbate existing inequalities.
What are the environmental implications of the increased
reliance on electronic devices and digital resources for
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
learning? How can environmental sustainability be in-
By encouraging remote learning, decreasing physical in- tegrated into the curriculum and practices of diversified
frastructure needs and enhancing digital literacy, the car- education systems?
bon footprint linked with conventional education can be
reduced. Additionally, the focus on experiential learning — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
and interdisciplinary methods can promote environmen-
How will regulatory frameworks adapt to ensure quality
tal consciousness and responsibility, leading to a mindset
assurance and accreditation of diverse learning expe-
geared towards sustainability.
riences, especially in the absence of traditional institutio-
nal structures? What geopolitical tensions may arise from
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
disparities in access to diversified education resources
Policymakers need to update regulations for new edu- and opportunities across different regions? How might
cational models and technologies, ensuring high-quality geopolitical tensions and regulatory disparities impact in-
and equitable access. Geopolitical issues can affect the ternational collaboration in education and the exchange
global flow of educational resources and the collabora- of best practices? What strategies can be employed to
tion and mobility of international students. Overcoming navigate diverse cultural and regulatory landscapes in
regulatory and geopolitical challenges is essential for global education initiatives, particularly amidst regulato-
promoting innovation and collaboration in education. ry inconsistencies?

77
Diversification of education and learning

WEAK SIGNALS:
Early indicators of the diversification of education and
learning are becoming increasingly apparent. Schools are
evolving into dynamic learning hubs where experimenta-
tion and diverse forms of education are embraced. This
shift is exemplified by the emergence of extended schoo-
ling models, the outsourcing of educational services and
the concept of learning-as-you-go. Additionally, the roles
of educators are changing. New learning agents are step-
ping into various roles in the education ecosystem.

Mixed realities are also being integrated into learning

environments, offering immersive and interactive educa-
tional experiences. These early signs paint a vivid picture
of the evolving education landscape. Traditional bounda-
ries are being blurred and new opportunities for persona-
lised and experiential learning are emerging. Micro-lear-
ning platforms, personalised learning apps and online
courses reflect a trend towards tailored knowledge deli-
very. This caters to individual preferences and needs. The
emergence of AI-powered tutors and personalised lear-
ning assistants further highlights the potential for truly
individualised learning experiences. Alternative learning
communities, such as Massive Open Online Courses, of-
fer flexibility and diverse perspectives beyond traditio-
nal schooling. Additionally, there is a growing interest
in experiential learning, maker spaces and gamification.
These developments emphasise hands-on and engaging
educational experiences. These trends look promising.
However, the extent to which they will affect education
and society over time is still unclear.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Diversification of education and learning”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 15.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/diversification-education-learning_en
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/
— European Commission, “New Learning Agents”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 15.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/new-learning-agents_en
— European Commission, “Schools in transformation”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 15.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/schools-transformation_en
— European Commission, “Teach the Future”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 15.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/teach-future_en

78
3.7 WIDENING INEQUALITIES BRIDGING THE GAP: SOCIO-ECONOMIC
DISPARITIES

DESCRIPTION:

Inequalities are growing, i.e. the richest and poorest In the near term (multiple years to a decade), efforts
people in society are growing further apart. This is hap- to mitigate widening inequalities should focus on imple-
pening even though progress is being made in reducing menting policies that promote equitable access to edu-
extreme poverty. Inequality is ongoing. These disparities cation, employment and healthcare. Initiatives aimed at
extend across various facets of life, including education, bridging the gap between the affluent and marginalised
employment, health and wealth distribution. It affects groups must be prioritised. These include focused social
people differently depending on their gender, age, eth- welfare programs and economic policies that include
nicity, social class, migration status and where they live. everyone. Additionally, addressing structural barriers is
These differences impact who has access to important crucial for social cohesion and sustainable development.
opportunities for a prosperous life. The COVID-19 pan- These barriers include discriminatory practices in the la-
demic has exacerbated existing inequalities, emphasising bour market and the unequal distribution of resources,
the urgency for policymakers to prioritise addressing the which perpetuate inequality.
issue of widening inequalities.
In the long term, sustained efforts to combat widening
inequalities are crucial for ensuring a fair and inclusive
society. Policies and interventions must focus on systemic
factors that cause inequality. These include biases in ins-
titutions and unequal opportunities. It is crucial to adopt
a comprehensive approach. This approach should com-
bine social, economic and environmental factors. Doing
so is essential for ensuring lasting equity and prosperity.

79
Widening inequalities

Below, we discuss the impact of widening ine- Main uncertainties and challenges:
qualities for each category:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
How will societal attitudes towards inequality evolve?
Social and cultural inequality disrupts social cohesion Will there be an increase in polarisation or a collective
and causes community division. It often sparks political push towards greater equity? How do cultural norms and
dissatisfaction and protests. Rising inequalities affect values shape perceptions of fairness and justice, and to
perceptions of fairness and social unity. "Black Lives what extent do they influence policy decisions regarding
Matter" and climate justice movements aim to increase inequality?
awareness and provide opposition. They show that figh-
ting systemic inequalities is essential for societal harmo-
ny and advancement.

— TECHNOLOGICAL: — TECHNOLOGICAL:
Technological advancements can worsen or lessen ine- How does the rapid pace of technological change contri-
qualities based on their use and regulation. Automation bute to concerns regarding skills mismatches and job
and digitisation may cause job losses, potentially wide- displacements, particularly in marginalised communities?
ning the gap between skilled and unskilled workers and
income disparities. Technologies and business models
targeting social and environmental issues demonstrate a
need for inclusive solutions. Yet, without careful actions
to guarantee fair access and benefits, technology risks
enlarging disparities by excluding some groups.
— ECONOMIC:
— ECONOMIC:
What impact will global economic shifts and crises have
Limiting access to resources for marginalised groups on inequality trends? How will changing labour markets,
stifles growth and innovation, exacerbating economic including the rise of the gig economy and remote work,
and social inequalities. This impacts economic stability affect income distribution? Can economic policies effec-
and hinders mobility, perpetuating social stratification. tively address structural barriers to wealth accumulation
Policymakers realise the importance of tackling economic and promote inclusive growth?
inequality by looking into wealth taxes and progressive
policies.

— ENVIRONMENTAL: — ENVIRONMENTAL:
Environmental degradation exacerbates inequalities, hit- How do climate change and natural disasters dispropor-
ting low-income and marginalised communities hardest tionately affect vulnerable populations, exacerbating ine-
due to their lack of adaptation resources. These com- qualities in access to resources and resilience?
munities often suffer most from environmental impacts,
highlighting the need to tackle environmental injustices
to reduce disparities. This involves ensuring access to
clean air, water and resources for vulnerable groups and
promoting sustainable business and renewable energy
solutions for inclusive environmental progress.

— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:

Regulatory frameworks and geopolitical dynamics in- How do geopolitical tensions and regulatory frameworks
fluence resource sharing, often disadvantaging margi- impact efforts to address inequality, particularly in terms
nalised and vulnerable groups. The political conversation of their alignment with social justice and equity goals?
is increasingly focused on tackling inequality through
means such as wealth taxes and universal basic income,
pointing to evolving regulations. However, geopolitical
tensions and varied regulatory methods hinder collective
efforts to address global inequalities, highlighting the im-
portance of global cooperation and policy harmonisation.

80
 Widening inequalities

WEAK SIGNALS:
Several manifestations serve as early indicators of the
potential trajectory of widening inequalities. A clear sign
is the mismatch of income and wealth, as exemplified
by large jumps in living expenses that are not mirrored
by similar growth in income. Moreover, there are more
protests and social movements. For example, the “Black
Lives Matter” movement and climate justice campaigns
show that people are more aware and are acting against
systemic inequalities.

Additionally, new technologies and business models

are emerging that focus on solving social and environ-
mental challenges. Examples include renewable energy
innovations and sustainable business practices. Political
discourse and policy priorities are changing to focus on
reducing inequality. Proposals such as wealth taxes, uni-
versal basic income and progressive economic policies
are becoming popular in some countries. These signals
highlight the urgent need to address growing inequali-
ties.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Gender inequalities, still a gap”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 28.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/gender-inequalities-still-gap_en
— European Commission, “Geographical inequalities are widening”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 28.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/geographical-inequalities-are-widening_en
— European Commission, “Growing disparities in labour markets”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 28.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/growing-disparities-labour-markets_en
— European Commission, “Social cohesion erosion”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 28.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/social-cohesion-erosion_en
— European Commission, “Social cohesion erosion”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 28.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/social-cohesion-erosion_en
— European Commission, “Who can afford the digital and green transition?”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 28.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/who-can-afford-digital-green-transition_en
— European Commission, “Widening inequalities”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 28.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/diversifying-inequalities_en

81
3.8 EXPANDING INFLUENCE
OF EAST AND SOUTH
THE RISING ECONOMIC POWERHOUSES:
SHIFTING GLOBAL DYNAMICS

DESCRIPTION:
largest economy, reflecting its sustained high rate of eco-
The economic landscape of the world is undergoing a si- nomic growth and technological innovation. Meanwhile,
gnificant transformation, marked by the rise of non-Wes- emerging markets and developing economies are expec-
tern economies. This megatrend involves the movement ted to continue to enjoy strong growth. They are predic-
of global economic power. It is shifting from traditional ted to grow faster than advanced economies.
Western countries to emerging markets and developing
economies. In recent years, seven countries—China, In the long term, the economic influence of non-Wes-
India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey, to- tern economies is expected to grow stronger. Asia may
gether referred to as the E7—have seen impressive eco- become more powerful than North America and Europe
nomic growth. They are challenging the powerful Group combined. By 2050, Asia will contribute over 50% of the
of Seven (G7) nations. Rapid industrialisation, techno- global economic output, mainly led by China and India.
logical advancement, demographic trends and strate- Indonesia and Brazil are poised to benefit from the re-
gic economic policies are driving this shift in economic calibration of economic influence. Additionally, Africa is
power. becoming a key player in the global economy. This is be-
cause of its new free trade area. It is also working to di-
In the near term (multiple years to a decade), the versify its economy, with a focus on inclusive and sustai-
economic power of non-Western countries is expected nable growth. This is part of Agenda 2063. Overall, BRICS
to continue its upward trajectory, with the E7 economies countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)
potentially doubling in size compared to the G7. China will become more influential. Their trading union will
is projected to surpass the United States as the world's serve as a counter-design to the Western trading union.

82
 Expanding influence of East and South

Below, we discuss the relevance and impact of Main uncertainties and challenges:
the expanding influence of East and South for
each category:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
How might cultural clashes manifest as traditional values
The rising power of emerging countries is reshaping their intersect with modernisation and globalisation?
societal influence and perception. Cultural spill-over
influences new trend developments. The growing in- — TECHNOLOGICAL:
fluence of the East and South is changing global cultural
How can the regulation of intellectual property be as-
dynamics, with cultures from Asia and Africa impacting
sured across borders? Can divides in the use and deve-
global art, cuisine and entertainment. However, cultural
lopment of emerging technologies in different countries
tensions can emerge from differing values and norms, re-
be overcome?
quiring dialogue and negotiation for mutual respect and
cooperation.
— ECONOMIC:
— TECHNOLOGICAL: How might economic imbalances between developed
and developing economies exacerbate global instability?
Emerging economies are boosting global technological
What are the uncertainties surrounding the interconnec-
progression and digital transformation through increased
tedness of supply chains and the effects of protectionist
investment in technology and innovation. They're rapidly
policies?
embracing digital technologies and establishing inno-
vation hubs, reshaping global markets and intensifying
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
competition. The surge of non-Western economies, no-
tably in AI, renewable energy and digital infrastructure, How could uncertainties regarding environmental sus-
is challenging Western tech dominance. As technological tainability impact decision-making processes across bor-
rivalry grows, issues such as data privacy, cybersecu- ders? In what ways might international cooperation be
rity and intellectual property rights require regulatory influenced by the urgency of addressing environmental
frameworks. challenges?

— ECONOMIC: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:

Sustainable consumption and recycling/upcycling foster How might competition for influence and resources
innovation and entrepreneurship, creating new markets between countries contribute to geopolitical tensions?
for eco-friendly products. The percentage of middle-class What potential instabilities and conflicts could arise from
people in America and the EU has significantly decreased. the fragmentation of globalisation into regional trade
Because of this, products and services aimed at the lower blocks? How do populist nationalism and changing poli-
class may become more popular. tical dynamics challenge traditional modes of internatio-
nal cooperation and trade?
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
The expanding influence of the East and South has envi-
ronmental implications, as rapid industrialisation and ur-
banisation in these regions contribute to global environ-
mental challenges such as climate change and resource
depletion. They need to grow in a way that sustains the
environment. Collaboration between the East and South
and Western countries is essential for addressing shared
environmental concerns and the transition towards a
more sustainable global economy.

— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
The rise of non-Western economies is shifting geopoli-
tical dynamics, leading to new alliances and multipolar
governance. Regulatory frameworks need to evolve to
reflect the changing landscape of international trade and
investment, balancing regional interests while ensuring
fair competition and compliance with global standards.

83
Expanding influence of East and South

WEAK SIGNALS:
Early signs show that the East and South are becoming
more influential. Asia's economies are growing steadily,
China has become a major global economic force and
Africa is focusing on growth that is inclusive and sustai-
nable, as outlined in its Agenda 2063 as well as regional
integration projects such as the African Continental Free
Trade Area. This project allows goods, intellectual proper-
ty and capital to move freely among African countries
and will prove beneficial to a population of 1.46 billion
people. BRICS, a trade union, is trying to establish trade
ties with non-Western countries as a counter-draft to the
US and Western-led trade blocks. Furthermore, China is
expanding its Belt and Road Initiative, which includes
multi-billion-dollar projects in Asia, Africa and Europe.
These signals show how the dynamics are changing. They
are shaping the future of economic power and global col-
laboration. However, they also illustrate a shift towards
a world with few powerful countries. Global trade is still
key, but it now operates within a framework that empha-
sises regional cooperation.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Expanding influence of East and South”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/climate-change-environmental-degradation_en
— European Commission, “Increasing fragmentation of globalisation”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/increasing-fragmentation-globalisation_en
— European Commission, “Future of the international order at a crossroads”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/future-international-order-crossroads_en
— European Commission, “Africa's growth potential”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/africas-growth-potential_en
— European Commission, “Potential implications on Expanding Influence of East and South”, European Commission, Website,
last accessed on 21.02.2024
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/topic/expanding-influence-east-south/potential-implications-on-expanding-in-
fluence-east-south_en

84
3.9 GROWING CONSUMPTION FROM MIDDLE-CLASS BOOMS
TO SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION

DESCRIPTION: In the near term (multiple years to a decade), the

surge in consumer markets, particularly in emerging eco-
The global consumer class is booming, with billions en- nomies, will continue. As people earn more disposable
tering the market with increased purchasing power. By income, they are likely to spend more on goods and
2035, the global middle class is expected to grow to 5.5 services. This increase in consumer spending will result
billion people. Asia will contribute significantly to this in significant opportunities for businesses in different
growth. The middle class is growing, especially in emer- sectors. Technology improvements and online shopping
ging economies. Business models aimed at lower-income platforms will simplify how people access goods and ser-
people are also emerging. These changes are altering vices. This will increase buying patterns around the wor-
what people buy and how goods are produced world- ld. Virtual and augmented reality will transform shopping
wide. They are also influencing societal values and the and personalise experiences with product customisation
way economies are structured. Consumers are becoming and virtual exploration. Sustainable consumption is be-
more aware of their shopping choices. They look for coming more popular. People increasingly want products
sustainability and personal well-being. They also want and services that match their values and concerns about
personalised and engaging shopping experiences. Tech- society. This change will make industries, supply chains
nology is helping to enhance these experiences. This me- and business models more focused on sustainability and
gatrend is driven by several factors, including economic will lead to more innovation and investment in renewable
growth and urbanisation. Demographic shifts also play a resources. It will also boost circular economy practices.
role. Additionally, rising incomes and the desire for better
lifestyles fuel it. In the long term, the trend of increased consumerism
is expected to continue. However, there may be changes
in what people buy and new consumption trends. In de-
veloping countries, the middle class could grow more
powerful, which may shape global consumer culture. This
can affect market trends in areas such as fashion and
technology.
85
Growing consumption

Below, we discuss the impact of growing Main uncertainties and challenges:

consumption for each category:

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
Growing consumption reflects evolving societal values Will consumer preferences continue to prioritise sustai-
and aspirations, driving individuals to seek improved nability and ethical practices, or will convenience and af-
lifestyles and consumption experiences. Consumers, fordability dominate decision-making? How will cultural
particularly in emerging economies, are becoming more shifts and societal values influence consumption patterns
conscious of their purchasing choices, driving demand in different regions? Are there potential cultural barriers
for ethically produced goods and services. Users expect to the widespread adoption of sustainable consumption
brands to entertain and offer value beyond the product, practices?
for example via social media. This shift is reshaping
consumer culture globally, impacting everything from — TECHNOLOGICAL:
supply chains to marketing strategies.
What role will emerging technologies play in shaping the
future of consumption? Will advancements in automa-
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
tion and artificial intelligence lead to further disparities
Renewable technologies and digital platforms are evol- in access to goods and services? How will concerns about
ving, enabling consumers to make informed, sustainable data privacy and security affect consumer trust in digital
choices. With rapid advancements in e-commerce and commerce platforms?
personalised marketing driven by data analytics and al-
gorithms, shopping experiences are becoming more per- — ECONOMIC:
sonalised and automated. Virtual reality and augmented
How will economic fluctuations and global market dyna-
reality offer immersive shopping without a physical pre-
mics affect consumer confidence and spending patterns?
sence. This technological progress is not only expanding
Will widening income inequality hinder the growth of the
consumer markets, but is also altering consumption habits
middle class and limit consumption opportunities? What
by enhancing accessibility, customisation and immersion.
impact will economic shocks, such as recessions and
Furthermore, digital payment systems are simplifying
trade disputes, have on consumer behaviour and purcha-
transactions and facilitating greater consumption.
sing power?
— ECONOMIC:
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
Sustainable consumption and recycling/upcycling foster
What are the consequences of resource depletion and
innovation and entrepreneurship, creating new markets
pollution resulting from an increased demand for goods?
for eco-friendly products. The percentage of middle-class
Can industries transition to sustainable production me-
people in America and the EU has significantly decreased.
thods and circular economy practices quickly enough to
Because of this, products and services aimed at the lower
mitigate environmental degradation caused by growing
class may become more popular.
consumption? How will climate change and extreme
weather events disrupt supply chains and impact consu-
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
mer access to essential products?
Sustainable consumption reduces the environmental
impact of using resources and lessens the strain on na- — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
tural resources and ecosystems. This takes place via recy-
How will changes in trade agreements, tariffs and inter-
cling, using renewable energy and practising sustainable
national regulations affect the availability and afforda-
farming. Nevertheless, the extent to which the general
bility of consumer goods? Will governments implement
growth of consumption nullifies these positive effects is
policies to incentivise sustainable consumption and pe-
questionable.
nalise environmentally harmful practices?
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
For sustainable consumption to become common, issues
need to be tackled. These include making it affordable
and easy to access. Digital products track user behaviour
and shopping data. This activity needs clear rules, which
should explain how to collect, store and use private data.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions and trade agreements
impact global supply chains, affecting the availability and
affordability of consumer goods on a large scale.

86
 Growing consumption

WEAK SIGNALS:
Weak signals of growing consumption are evident, as
consumers increasingly seek sustainable products and
ethical practices, particularly in wealthy regions. Cir-
cular economy initiatives strengthen this change. They,
along with digital payment systems, make things more
convenient and also allow businesses to customise their
offerings. Additionally, conscious consumerism trends
prioritise brands aligned with societal values, driving
significant shifts in consumption patterns towards sus-
tainability. In the “Attention Economy”, brands are shif-
ting towards purpose-driven marketing, but risks such
as greenwashing persist. Consumerism 2.0 is shaped by
technology and involves using digital services a lot and
paying attention to well-being. Older and active consu-
mers want experiences made just for them. The notion
of an “experience culture” underscores the demand
for immersive experiences, shaping the future of digital
consumerism.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Growing consumption”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/growing-consumerism_en
— European Commission, “Sustainable consumption”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/sustainable-consumption_en
— European Commission, “Our digital lives”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/our-digital-lives_en
— European Commission, “Consumer-centricity”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/consumer-centricity_en
— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

87
3.10 INCREASING
DEMOGRAPHIC IMBALANCES
THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDE:
BALANCING GROWTH AND DECLINE

DESCRIPTION: In the near term (multiple years to a decade), de-

mographic imbalances will become increasingly evident.
This megatrend emphasises changes in the age of the po- High-income countries may see their populations stop
pulation. It indicates an increase in elderly people. It also growing or even decrease, which could lead to pro-
highlights changes in the numbers of people in different blems. One issue is an older population and an ageing
age groups. This impacts job markets significantly, which workforce. Another is stress on healthcare and pension
in turn has effects on the economy, possible income dis- systems. Whereas Sub-Saharan Africa will likely see a fast
parities, voting behaviours and public finances. increase in population these demographic shifts will pose
challenges to economies, social structures and resource
The world's population is rapidly increasing and is ex- management strategies worldwide.
pected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050. Much of this growth
is happening in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, In the long term, population imbalances are expected
many developed countries are experiencing very low to continue and may even get worse. This will affect eco-
growth or no growth at all. Some are even seeing their nomic growth, social unity and global politics. High-in-
populations decrease. come countries with stagnating or shrinking populations
might change their immigration policies and labour mar-
Population dynamics are changing due to several rea- ket dynamics. Meanwhile, regions with rapidly growing
sons. These include fertility rates, mortality rates, immi- youth populations could experience unique socio-econo-
gration and ageing demographics. These trends are crea- mic challenges. These include dissatisfaction, poverty and
ting noticeable imbalances in demographics globally as high unemployment among the youth. To address these
stages of transition differ. issues, significant investments in education and skills
training are necessary.

88
 Increasing demographic imbalances

Below, we discuss the impact of Increasing de- Main uncertainties and challenges:
mographic imbalances for each category:

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
Ageing populations in developed countries are facing How will changing cultural norms and values affect ferti-
increasing intergenerational inequality, as younger ge- lity rates and family structures in different regions? What
nerations face limited job opportunities and potential impact will an increase in life expectancy and delayed
economic strain supporting elderly relatives. Meanwhile, retirement have on intergenerational relationships and
regions with growing youth populations may face so- societal expectations regarding work and retirement?
cio-economic challenges such as dissatisfaction and high
unemployment among the youth, impacting social cohe-
sion and stability.

— TECHNOLOGICAL: — TECHNOLOGICAL:
Advances in assistive technologies and telemedicine are What role will technological advancements, such as au-
enhancing the quality of life of elderly populations and tomation and artificial intelligence, play in mitigating
are supporting independent living. They are helping to labour shortages in ageing populations or addressing
tackle issues caused by ageing populations and shifts in challenges related to youth unemployment? How will
workforce demographics. technology shape healthcare delivery and elder care ser-
vices to meet the needs of ageing populations?
— ECONOMIC:
— ECONOMIC:
The economic effects of population imbalances can be
felt in many areas. They are impacting job markets, how How will demographic shifts impact consumer behaviour,
people spend money and government budget policies. market demand and economic growth in different sec-
Developed countries have fewer working-age people, tors? What strategies will governments and businesses
putting pressure on social welfare systems. Meanwhile, implement to address labour shortages and skill gaps re-
the number of young people in developing areas is sulting from demographic imbalances? How will econo-
growing. This creates chances for economic growth and mic disparities between regions with ageing populations
innovation, but also provides challenges in terms of re- and those experiencing rapid population growth impact
source management and infrastructure development to global trade and investment flows?
support growing populations.

— ENVIRONMENTAL: — ENVIRONMENTAL:
Demographic shifts influence patterns of urbanisation, What are the potential environmental consequences of
resource consumption and environmental sustainability. rapid population growth, such as an increase in demand
Rapid urbanisation in areas with growing populations for natural resources and infrastructure development?
is generating an increase in the demands placed on in- How will demographic imbalances influence efforts to
frastructure, boosting energy consumption and making mitigate climate change and promote sustainable deve-
waste management more challenging. This negatively lopment?
affects efforts to mitigate climate change.

— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:

Demographic imbalances are shaping political agendas, How will demographic trends shape immigration poli-
migration policies and international relations. Many coun- cies and labour mobility agreements between countries?
tries are experiencing an increase in the number of older What geopolitical tensions may arise from competition
people, sparking debates on several topics. These topics over resources and migration flows resulting from demo-
include reforming pension systems, funding healthcare graphic imbalances?
and employing immigrants to address workforce shor-
tages. Meanwhile, countries with many young people are
trying to focus on better education, more jobs and giving
the youth a voice in politics.

89
Increasing demographic imbalances

WEAK SIGNALS:
The global population soared during the period from
1926 to 2020, reaching 7.8 billion, and was mainly driven
by growth in Asia and Africa. Despite reduced fertility
rates, the average life expectancy reached 73 years in
2020. Societies are getting older. The number of people
over 65 is expected to double by 2050. Meanwhile, Afri-
ca is seeing an increase in young people. International
migration counters population decline in Europe. Interge-
nerational inequality arises, notably as ageing popula-
tions place strain on the fiscal and healthcare systems.
People are living longer and retiring later. This limits job
opportunities for younger people and also affects family
relationships. There are worries about the rights of fu-
ture generations. The labour force landscape is shifting,
with some regions rapidly ageing while others are seeing
youth expansion. China is experiencing a demographic
shift that is affecting the world. As older people leave the
workforce, there are worries about pension funds lasting
and the impact on demographic dividends. Ageing popu-
lations wield electoral influence, prompting debates over
political decisions favouring seniors.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Increasing demographic imbalances”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/increasing-demographic-imbalances_en
— European Commission, “Global population is growing”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/global-population-growing_en
— European Commission, ”Age structures more uneven”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/age-structures-more-uneven_en
— European Commission, “Changing Labour Force”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/changing-labour-force_en
— European Commission, “Increasing Impact of Ageing”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/increasing-impact-ageing_en
— European Commission, “Demographics and inequality”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/demographics-inequality_en

90
3.11 INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF NEW GOVERNING SYSTEMS
FROM TOP-DOWN TO GRASSROOTS:
EMPOWERING VOICES

DESCRIPTION: In the near term (multiple years to a decade), these

new governing systems are expected to grow. More non-
New governing systems are gaining influence for several state actors will be involved in making decisions. There
reasons, which are briefly discussed here. They prioritise will be a greater use of participatory governance. Addi-
principles of inclusivity, transparency and responsiveness, tionally, digital media platforms will further change the
leveraging digital technologies and participatory mecha- way people inform themselves about news and how they
nisms to engage citizens in governance. Essentially, new connect with people of the same beliefs. As a result, per-
governing systems represent a departure from traditio- sonal beliefs are holding more weight than factual truth.
nal top-down approaches to governance. They aim to This puts pressure on the media to combat fake news and
foster collaboration, adaptability and effectiveness in misinformation, and maintain its role as a reliable source
addressing complex societal issues. These elements are of information.
changing old ways of governing, forming a multi-layered
governing system. In the long term, the changes in government systems
will likely be influenced by several factors, including ad-
In these new governing systems, non-state actors are vances in technology, the values of society and the state
becoming more prominent, for example, grassroots or- of geopolitical dynamics. While automated decision-ma-
ganisations. Decision-making processes are becoming king with the help of technology could make advances,
more international, as there is a growing global aware- ethical considerations about algorithmic inconsistencies
ness. Social media has a big impact on the formation of regarding fairness, accountability, transparency and ethi-
political bubbles and the perception of truth. Although cal biases could occur. The division between democratic
there are increasingly innovative practices in governing, and autocratic countries will intensify, which could lead
democracy is on the decline globally. This presents a risk to geopolitical and economic tensions.
to democratic systems and institutions, which must be
addressed and mitigated.

91
Increasing influence of new governing systems

Below, we discuss the impact of Diversification Main uncertainties and challenges:

of the increasing influence of new governing
systems for each category:

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
New governing systems signify shifts towards inclusive- How will diverse cultural norms and values influence the
ness and participatory decision-making, enabling a wide adoption and effectiveness of new governing systems?
range of voices to influence governance and policies. Will the increasing polarisation of societies hinder the
These systems embody values of inclusivity and trans- inclusivity and consensus-building efforts of grassroots
parency, with grassroots organisations enhancing citizen initiatives? How will the erosion of trust in traditional
engagement and community ownership. However, social institutions impact citizen engagement and participation
media-driven political bubbles are challenging shared in governance processes?
truths and worsening polarisation, thus negatively im-
pacting social cohesion and trust in institutions.

— TECHNOLOGICAL: — TECHNOLOGICAL:
Digital platforms and technologies crucially support ci- How can governments ensure the security and integrity
tizen engagement and transparency in governance, of- of digital platforms used for participatory governance,
fering real-time communication and collaboration. They especially in the face of cybersecurity threats and data
allow public data to be used in self-correcting algorithms, privacy concerns? Will digital divides exacerbate inequa-
simulating policy outcomes for automated decision-ma- lities in terms of the access to information and opportuni-
king. However, they also present challenges such as the ties for civic engagement, undermining the inclusivity of
spread of misinformation and the manipulation of public new governing systems?
opinion through algorithms.

— ECONOMIC: — ECONOMIC:
The potential loss of corporate lobbying power can alter How will the transition to new governing systems affect
industry dynamics, investment patterns and innovation. economic growth and stability, particularly in industries
New governance systems change economic interactions reliant on traditional power structures? What are the
by shifting decision-making roles between state and non- long-term financial implications of investing in digital in-
state players. Economic stability may also suffer due to frastructure and capacity building for participatory gover-
reduced trust in traditional institutions and the growth nance? Can new governing systems effectively address
of populism. economic inequalities and ensure the equitable distribu-
tion of resources and opportunities?
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
Participatory policymaking can tackle environmental is-
sues through sustainable policies and practices. It utilises What role will new governing systems play in addres-
new governing systems, grassroots initiatives and partici- sing pressing environmental challenges, such as climate
patory mechanisms to support community-driven conser- change and biodiversity loss? Will competing economic
vation and sustainable development. However, solving interests and short-term priorities undermine efforts to
complex environmental challenges demands multi-level prioritise environmental sustainability within new gover-
governance coordination and faces obstacles from politi- ning systems?
cal polarisation and short-term interests.

— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:

Futures literacy could enable policymakers to identify How will regulatory frameworks adapt to govern the in-
uncertainties and complexities, fostering anticipato- creasingly complex interactions between state and non-
ry thinking and a sense of preparedness. Participatory, state actors in new governing systems? What are the
bottom-up approaches to policymaking consider the geopolitical implications of the rise of participatory go-
collective intelligence of citizens. While participatory go- vernance and the potential erosion of state sovereignty?
vernance enhances legitimacy and accountability, it also
challenges established power structures and may lead to
tensions between democratic and autocratic regimes.

92
 Increasing influence of new governing systems

WEAK SIGNALS:
Weak signals indicate the subtle yet emerging manifes-
tations of the collective intelligence trend. These include
grassroots initiatives leveraging collective wisdom for
community development projects, such as urban planning
and environmental conservation efforts. Additionally, go-
vernments and organisations are increasingly utilising
digital platforms and online forums to solicit input from
citizens on policy decisions and public projects, reflecting
a growing commitment to participatory governance. The
proliferation of online collaborative tools and platforms
facilitates knowledge-sharing and problem-solving
among various groups, further enhancing collective in-
telligence capabilities. Moreover, governmental bodies
and public institutions are integrating citizen feedback
and crowdsourced data into decision-making processes,
signalling a shift towards more inclusive and transparent
governance practices. Lastly, there is a growing sense
of recognition and support for participatory democracy
initiatives, such as citizens' assemblies and deliberative
polling, as legitimate channels for citizen engagement
in shaping the future of society. These weak signals col-
lectively indicate the gradual but significant adoption
of collective intelligence principles in various spheres of
public life.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Increasing influence of new governing systems”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/increasing-influence-new-governing-systems_en
— European Commission, “New governance models”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/new-governance-models_en
— European Commission, “Digital transformation of public administration and services”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on
21.01.2024, https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/digital-transformation-public-administration-services_en
— European Commission, “Decoupling trust from truth.”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/decoupling-trust-truth_en
— European Commission, “Automated decision-making impacting society”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/automated-decision-making-impacting-society_en
— European Commission, “Collective intelligence”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/collective-intelligence_en
— European Commission, “Media under pressure”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/media-under-pressure_en

93
3.12 INCREASING
SIGNIFICANCE OF MIGRATION
A WORLD ON THE MOVE:
FROM DISPLACEMENT
TO INTEGRATION

DESCRIPTION: In the near term (multiple years to a decade), migra-

tion is expected to continue to grow in significance. There
The increasing significance of migration is a prominent will be more diverse migration patterns and reasons for
feature of our modern world. Every day, countless indi- migrating. Economic disparities, political instability and
viduals embark on journeys across borders, driven by climate change will remain the primary factors fuelling
aspirations for better lives, security and prosperity. This migration. The way in which the world reacts to current
megatrend covers different types of migration. It includes crises, such as the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, will in-
people who choose to move for jobs and those who are fluence migration patterns. This will keep the focus on
forced to leave their places of residence due to wars, border security and managing those borders.
persecution or natural disasters. This global phenome-
non transcends geographical boundaries, impacting so- In the long term, migration dynamics may further
cieties, economies and governance systems worldwide. evolve in response to emerging challenges and oppor-
Migration is influenced by many factors, including eco- tunities. Technological advancements could facilitate
nomic conditions, political instability and environmental both migration processes and border control measures.
changes. These factors will create a complex pattern of However, geopolitical shifts and environmental changes
human movement in the 21st century. Migration is sha- may intensify migration pressures, potentially making the
ping how populations grow and how cultures change. management of migration more complex, both nationally
Understanding its antecedents, its impacts and its conse- and internationally.
quences is vital.

94
 Increasing significance of migration

Below, we discuss the impact of Increasing signi- Main uncertainties and challenges:
ficance of migration for each category:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
How will host communities adapt to increasing cultural
Migration reshapes cultural landscapes, enhancing diver- diversity resulting from migration and what implications
sity and multiculturalism but also posing challenges for will this have for social cohesion and identity formation?
social integration and identity conflicts. What are the long-term effects of cultural integration on
social norms, values and traditions within host societies
— TECHNOLOGICAL: and how will they influence attitudes towards migration?
Technology facilitates movement and enhances commu-
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
nication, travel and border security, but raises privacy and
surveillance concerns. Technologies such as blockchain How will emerging technologies such as AI, blockchain
and biometrics improve identity verification, reducing and biometrics impact migration processes and what are
fraud but face ethical and regulatory challenges related the potential ethical implications and risks associated
to data protection and human rights. with their use? How can technological advancements
be leveraged to enhance migrant integration, access
— ECONOMIC: to services and the protection of migrant rights while
mitigating digital divides and privacy concerns? What
Migration boosts the labour market by diversifying the
challenges and opportunities will arise from the use of
workforce and facilitating skill mobility, but it also leads
social media and digital platforms in shaping migration
to wage gaps and job competition. Challenges include
narratives, fostering community support networks and
brain drain and wage suppression, while global economic
combating misinformation and exploitation?
disparities encourage individuals to seek better opportu-
nities abroad, resulting in remittances that support com-
— ECONOMIC:
munities back home.
How will automation and AI-driven disruptions in job
— ENVIRONMENTAL: markets affect labour migration patterns and employ-
ment opportunities for both migrants and native popu-
Climate change leads to displacement by affecting migra-
lations? What are the economic consequences of brain
tion dynamics. It causes people to move due to sea-level
drain in the countries from which people are emigrating
rise, extreme weather and environmental degradation,
and its impact on development trajectories?
posing challenges for host communities that need resi-
lience and adaptation strategies for climate refugees. En-
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
vironmental migration intertwined with socio-economic
issues deepens inequalities, especially in resource-scarce What are the anticipated migration patterns and dis-
areas. To address this, the root causes need to be tackled placement trends resulting from ongoing environmen-
and aid needs to be offered to those affected. Legal sys- tal changes such as climate change, resource depletion
tems should evolve to include climate migration issues and natural disasters? How will host communities and
in asylum and refugee policies, underlining the need for governments address the environmental impacts of mi-
international collaboration to find sustainable solutions gration, including the pressures exerted on infrastructure,
for at-risk communities. resources and ecosystems?

— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:

Migration is sparking political debate, influencing poli- What challenges will arise from the fragmentation of mi-
cies, elections and international relations, while also fuel- gration governance and diverging national interests, and
ling xenophobia and populism. Governance challenges how can multilateral approaches and diplomacy address
arise from diverging interests and geopolitical tensions, these complexities to ensure equitable and humane res-
complicating management and human rights efforts. ponses to migration challenges? How will border security
States' security measures often exacerbate humanitarian measures and migration governance evolve in response
issues, highlighting the difficulty of balancing security to changing migration patterns, security threats and hu-
and humanitarian duties. The political exploitation of mi- manitarian crises?
gration, such as outsourcing asylum processing or using
migration in diplomatic deals, illustrates migration's
complex role in geopolitics, emphasising the importance
of ethical migration governance.

95
Increasing significance of migration

WEAK SIGNALS:
Various weak signals indicate the evolving landscape of
migration trends globally. Border militarisation is imple-
mented by using military technologies and personnel to
control borders. This approach points to increasing mi-
gration pressures and security worries. Additionally, some
countries use migrants for their own political benefit.
They make deals with other countries to handle asylum
seekers outside their own borders. It also highlights the
challenges in managing migration flows efficiently. Pre-
dictions about climate-induced migration focus on extre-
me weather and the lack of resources, demonstrating a
pressing need for policies that adapt to these changes.

New data sources such as surveys and social media are

being used. This suggests that efforts are being made to
improve how we monitor and respond to changing mi-
gration patterns. Additionally, the ongoing dependence
on networks of people living outside their home coun-
tries and economic differences are driving global migra-
tion pathways and employment patterns.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Increasing significance of migration”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/increasing-significance-migration_en
— European Commission, “Diverse drivers of migration”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/diverse-drivers-migration_en
— European Commission, “Militarisation of borders and instrumentalisation of migration”, European Commission, Website,
last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/militarisation-borders-instrumentalisation-migration_en
— European Commission, “Continuing complexity of migration governance”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/continuing-complexity-migration-governance_en

96
3.13 SHIFTING HEALTH
CHALLENGES
FROM VIRAL TO VITAL: ADAPTING
TO THE NEW NORMS
OF HEALTH CHALLENGES

DESCRIPTION: In the near term (multiple years to a decade), the nu-

mber of NCDs is expected to rise worldwide. This increase
Science has greatly lowered the rate of infectious di- will be especially noticeable in developed countries and
seases. However, today's health problems often involve will pose huge challenges to healthcare systems. Elec-
non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Examples are heart tronic health technologies and data-driven healthcare
disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes and chronic lung disease. are improving. They help prevent, diagnose, and treat
These NCDs can result from unhealthy lifestyles and pol- diseases better.
lution. In the long term, there will be ongoing efforts to use
technology and data to improve healthcare. This could
Advances in healthcare have made people live longer. change how healthcare is provided. Individualised thera-
However, problems such as obesity, malnutrition, anti- pies in the form of personalised or precision medicine can
microbial resistance, mental health issues and diseases provide better chances of finding a cure than “one size
from animals continue to exist. The COVID-19 pandemic fits all” therapies. CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing could make
has shown how vulnerable global health systems are traditional approaches to treating incurable diseases
and emphasised the need for urgent action to tackle new obsolete or prevent diseases altogether through the
health threats. In addition, the acknowledgement of the genetic enhancement of humans. Nanomedicine on the
multifaceted nature of health underlines the interplay of other hand can be used as a biosensor for the preventive
genetics, lifestyle choices and environmental factors. detection of diseases or as medication. It autonomously
realises disease-relieving effects in the affected area wit-
hout impacting the whole body.

97
Shifting health challenges

Below, we discuss the impact of Diversification Main uncertainties and challenges:

of shifting health challenges for each category:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
— SOCIO-CULTURAL:
How will societal attitudes towards health behaviours
Social issues such as NCDs and mental health highlight and lifestyle choices evolve in response to shifting health
the need for holistic healthcare. Personalised medicine challenges? What role will cultural norms and beliefs
brings up concerns about privacy, data ownership and play in shaping access to and the acceptance of emer-
fair healthcare access. Changing lifestyles and urbanisa- ging healthcare technologies and treatments? How will
tion are reshaping societal norms in relation to health disparities in healthcare access impact efforts to address
behaviours and disease prevention. NCDs and mental health issues? How does society deal
with the increase in the transparency of sensitive data,
— TECHNOLOGICAL: such as previous illnesses, and possible discrimination
against ill people?
Technological advances such as CRISPR-Cas9 gene edi-
ting, mRNA vaccines and nanomedicines support perso-
— TECHNOLOGICAL:
nalised medicine, allowing for precise diagnostics and
treatments. The growth of telemedicine and wearable What ethical implications will arise from the widespread
health devices signifies a move towards digital health- adoption of precision medicine and gene editing techno-
care, providing personalised solutions and enabling indi- logies? How will technological advances impact health-
vidual health management. care privacy and security?

— ECONOMIC: — ECONOMIC:
Work absence costs due to burnout and mental issues are How will healthcare systems manage the financial bur-
increasing. Personalised medicine could lower healthcare den of addressing rising rates of NCDs while maintaining
costs by improving treatment targeting and avoiding un- the quality of the care? What economic implications will
necessary interventions. However, healthcare systems are arise from the transition towards personalised medicine
facing pressure to manage escalating costs and the need and innovative healthcare technologies? How will dis-
for personalised treatments. parities in income and access to health care impact the
adoption of emerging treatments and therapies? How
— ENVIRONMENTAL: can the long times (up to decades) for the development
of new therapies be financed? Is the incorporated patent
Environmental degradation, driven by pollution and
system enough of an incentive to invest in research and
climate change, significantly affects health, increasing
development, especially in treatments of less commonly
non-communicable diseases such as respiratory illnesses
spread diseases?
and cancers. Sustainable policies and awareness cam-
paigns are crucial to reducing these health risks by
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
tackling environmental issues.
How will efforts to address environmental health fac-
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY: tors, such as pollution and climate change, intersect
with strategies for preventing and treating NCDs? What
The divide in health care between developing and deve-
challenges will arise in balancing economic development
loped nations is widening. Regulatory systems need to be
with environmental sustainability to promote long-term
adjusted to keep up with advances in gene editing, perso-
health outcomes?
nalised medicine and nanotechnology, prioritising patient
safety and ethics. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
the weaknesses of the global health system, emphasising
the need for international collaboration against health What regulatory frameworks are needed to ensure the
threats. safe and ethical use of emerging technologies such as
CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing and nanomedicine? How will
geopolitical tensions and international cooperation in-
fluence the sharing of healthcare data and resources in
response to global health threats? How can research and
the development of therapies for diseases that do not
offer sufficient return on investment be mitigated?

98
 Shifting health challenges

WEAK SIGNALS:
The rise of precision medicine is evident through various
manifestations in the healthcare landscape, e.g. genetic
testing in cancer treatment. Governments, healthcare
institutions and pharmaceutical companies are now in-
vesting more in precision medicine. This means they are
moving towards personalised healthcare.

Genetic testing kits and health apps are now more com-
mon. They allow people to manage their own health and
offer personalised health advice. There is an increase in
the use of telemedicine and wearable health technolo-
gies, which shows a growing dependence on digital re-
sources for providing health care.

Startups and research projects focusing on creating new,

personalised healthcare solutions are emerging. These
include custom medical devices, targeted therapies and
gene therapies, all pointing to potential breakthroughs in
disease prevention and treatment. The first applications
of gene therapy are used to cure blood disorders that
have up until now been uncurable.

Public awareness campaigns are focusing on the stigma

of mental health and environmental health. This shows
that people are recognising the link between human
health and broader societal and environmental factors.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— European Commission, “Shifting health challenges”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/shifting-health-challenges_en
— European Commission, “Trend: Keep calm and carry on, but also ‘be prepared’”, European Commission, Website, last accessed
on 21.01.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/keep-calm-carry-also-%E2%80%98be-prepared%E2%80%99_en
— European Commission, “It's a miracle“, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/its-miracle_en
— European Commission, “Mind yourself“, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/mind-yourself_en
— European Commission, “A healthy environment”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/healthy-environment_en
— European Commission, “Digitize me and my health”, European Commission, Website, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/digitize-me-my-health_en

99
3.14 DIVERSITY-AWARE
SOCIETY
A NEW ERA OF SOCIAL
AWARENESS

DESCRIPTION:

In many Western societies, there is a growing awareness In the near term (multiple years to a decade), the
of social injustices. Consumers are becoming actively trend of diversity-aware culture and growing individua-
involved, demanding transparency and change. In the lism are expected to continue shaping societal norms and
post-demographic world, new standards and challenges behaviours. Consumers will increasingly seek transparen-
are emerging for both politics and businesses. The idea cy and accountability from both businesses and govern-
that there is a standard definition for all consumers is ments. This will lead to changes in corporate practices
slowly disappearing. This change comes as people reco- and political strategies. Companies will adopt inclusive
gnise and address the diversity and differences among design principles as a standard practice. They will inte-
individuals. Simultaneously, there is an increasing aware- grate these principles into their products and services.
ness of discrimination and a lack of equal opportunities. This approach aims to meet the diverse needs of their
Previously marginalised groups are publicly and visibly customers. Social media will remain a prominent plat-
advocating for equal opportunities. Products, services and form for activism and expression, influencing public dis-
infrastructures are expected to be inclusive and designed course and holding institutions accountable.
to accommodate everyone from the outset. Women are
advocating for autonomy and fighting against the gender In the long term, the trajectory of a diversity-aware
pay gap and sexual violence. Social media serves as a culture and growing individualism will likely depend
platform for activism, but also highlights the polarisation on how effectively societal institutions adapt to these
of society. Consumers are exerting increasing pressure changes. Advances in technology, especially in artificial
on companies, demanding political stances and transpa- intelligence and blockchain, could enhance transparency
rency. Similarly, politics is undergoing profound changes and inclusivity. However, the persistence of societal di-
and facing numerous challenges. New democratic ap- visions and the evolving nature of activism could also
proaches are being tested, while the increasing power present challenges to sustaining progress in these areas.
of global tech giants and the spread of misinformation
threaten democracies worldwide.
100
 Diversity-aware society

Below, we discuss the impact of a diversity- Main uncertainties and challenges:

aware culture for each category:

— SOCIO-CULTURAL: — SOCIO-CULTURAL:
A diversity-aware culture deeply influences society's How will societal attitudes towards a diversity-aware
norms and values. It leads to a heightened awareness culture evolve over time? Will there be pushback against
of social injustices and discrimination. This heightened a perceived "cancel culture" or a greater embrace of so-
awareness fosters a more inclusive environment in which cial justice movements? What impact will generational
previously marginalised groups advocate for equal op- differences have on the trajectory of a diversity-aware
portunities. Grassroots movements and social media ac- culture? Will younger generations continue to drive
tivism serve as catalysts for change. They amplify voices change or will there be resistance from older demogra-
and demand accountability from both corporations and phics? How will cultural globalisation intersect with di-
governments. versity-aware culture movements?

— TECHNOLOGICAL: — TECHNOLOGICAL:
Social media platforms play a pivotal role in facilitating How will advancements in technology shape the future
activism and mobilisation, serving as a tool for advocacy of social activism and advocacy? Will emerging technolo-
and spreading awareness of social issues. gies facilitate greater inclusivity and participation or will
they exacerbate existing digital divides? Will algorithms
— ECONOMIC: amplify echo chambers or foster meaningful dialogue
across various perspectives?
Diversity-aware culture affects how consumers behave.
People are more likely to support companies that match
— ECONOMIC:
their values. These values include transparency and social
responsibility. Consumer pressure motivates companies What will be the long-term economic implications of
to embrace inclusive practices and transparent policies. companies adopting diverse or “woke” branding and
This is essential for maintaining credibility and meeting marketing strategies? Will these efforts lead to genuine
changing societal expectations. Furthermore, companies change or be perceived as superficial attempts to capita-
that fail to address social injustices risk facing boycotts lise on social movements?
and reputational damage, impacting their bottom line.
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
— ENVIRONMENTAL:
How will a diversity-aware culture intersect with envi-
A diversity-aware culture is not directly related to envi- ronmental activism, and what impact will this have on
ronmental issues. However, it connects with environmen- the prioritisation of environmental issues? Will there be
tal activism within the larger social justice and equity synergies between social justice and environmental mo-
movement. Activists for environmental causes highlight vements or will competing interests emerge?
the uneven effects of climate change on marginalised
communities and show how social and environmental — (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
issues are closely linked.
What role will international institutions play in promo-
ting a diversity-aware culture and advocating for human
— (GEO)POLITICAL, REGULATORY:
rights on a global scale? How will regulatory frameworks
A diversity-aware culture influences political discourse change to meet the challenges of a diversity-aware
and policymaking, with an increasing focus on enacting culture? These challenges will arise in areas such as free
laws and policies that promote diversity, inclusivity and speech, privacy rights and civil liberties. Will there be a
equality. Diversity and its acknowledgement vary signifi- balance struck between protecting individual rights and
cantly across nations and governmental systems. addressing systemic injustices?

101
Diversity-aware society

WEAK SIGNALS:
There has been a notable surge in the demand for
products that are ethically produced and transparent-
ly sourced. People are becoming more aware of social
injustices and want companies to be more responsible.
This includes how companies make products, manage
supply chains and affect society. Consequently, there is
an emerging expectation for businesses to demonstrate
social responsibility. This is particularly amplified by so-
cial media activism and the empowerment of margina-
lised groups. Failure to address these concerns may lead
to significant public backlash and reputational harm for
companies.
Moreover, there is a growing recognition of the impor-
tance of diversity and inclusion, particularly in design
practices across various industries. This involves desi-
gning products, services and digital interfaces that cater
to a wide range of abilities, cultures, genders and ages.
Moreover, intersectional feminism has started to emerge
in brand activism, with companies aligning themselves
with movements addressing discrimination. These are
not only based on gender but also race, ethnicity, sexua-
lity, disability and other intersecting identities. This trend
signifies a shift towards more nuanced and inclusive ap-
proaches in corporate social advocacy.

Advances in technology are paving the way for inno-

vative solutions aimed at promoting social change and
political participation. This involves creating digital tools
and platforms to fight misinformation and encourage
people to participate in civic activities online. Further-
more, they help increase the visibility of voices that are
often ignored.
These signals collectively indicate the potential for a di-
versity-aware culture to shape various aspects of society.
The signals spread from consumer preferences, corpo-
rate ethics, design standards and feminist movements
to technological developments. Businesses, policymakers
and activists need to watch for signs of change in society
to ensure that they can anticipate and adjust to new so-
cietal expectations and values.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Trendmanager tool by Trendone, last accessed on 21.02.2024,
https://www.trendmanager.com/

102
4 Cross-impact
analysis

The term "cross-impact analysis" refers to a foresight

tool that attempts to illustrate and analyse correla-
tions between various elements being analysed and to
take their mutual effects into account. Most events and
developments are in some way related to other events
and developments ("correlation"). First-level analysis
does not tackle these complex interactions and the links
between individual elements and events are not taken
into account. Cross-impact analysis aims to fill this gap.

In the context of this project, cross-impact analysis is

presented as a tool to illustrate the level of interconnec-
tion and interaction of the technological trends with the
megatrends.

To perform the cross-impact analysis, the technology

trends are listed on the left-most side of a table (along
the y-axis) and the technology trends or megatrends
are listed on the top-most row of the same table (along
the x-axis). In each cell of the table, the interconnecte-
dness and level of interaction between the correspon-
ding trends are assessed. This is performed by expert
judgement with the help of the research performed on
technological trends and megatrends in sections 2 and 3,
respectively. The entries on the preliminary assessment of
interactions between trends can be particularly useful. A
number is then assigned to each cell, ranging from 0 to
3 and denoting low to high interconnectedness. For each
trend, the sums of their interconnected scores are given
as a proxy for the overall level of importance that this
trend possesses. Some indicative preliminary results as
produced are provided as an example in Table 1.

103
 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NEW GOVERNING SYSTEMS

DIVERSIFICATION OF EDUCATION AND LEARNING

EXPANDING INFLUENCE OF EAST AND SOUTH

INCREASING SIGNIFICANCE OF MIGRATION

INCREASING DEMOGRAPHIC IMBALANCES
AGGRAVATING RESOURCE SCARCITY

CHANGING SECURITY PARADIGM

SHIFTING HEALTH CHALLENGES

CHANGING NATURE OF WORK

CONTINUING URBANISATION

DIVERSITY-AWARE SOCIETY
GROWING CONSUMPTION
WIDENING INEQUALITIES

SUMS
DATA SCIENCE AND AI 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 24

IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGIES 0 2 2 0 1 3 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 2 17

QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 11

SENSOR TECHNOLOGIES 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 22

NEW MATERIALS
1 1 2 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 13
AND DIGITAL PRODUCTION

RENEWABLE ENERGY
2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 16
AND RESILIENCE

HUMAN ENHANCEMENT
3 1 2 3 2 0 1 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 21
TECHNOLOGIES

CYBER TECHNOLOGIES 1 3 3 0 0 2 3 1 2 2 1 0 3 2 23

DIGITAL COMMUNICATION 1 2 3 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 3 1 1 1 18

LOW-POWER WIDE-AREA 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 12

ROBOTIC AND AUTONOMOUS

2 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 20
SYSTEMS

SUMS 15 21 28 17 15 15 12 10 18 7 7 6 16 9

Table 1: Indicative preliminary results given as an example of a cross-impact analysis for technological trends and megatrends.
The scale of interconnectedness is as follows: 0 – Close to none, 1 – Low, 2 – Medium, and 3 – High.

104
5 Scenario Game
5.1 MOTIVATION

Foresight work is often challenged with not engaging

with the members of an organization or decision makers
to a sufficient extent. While analytical work on trends is
the fundamental basis in developing foresight, it is para-
mount to think about alternative pictures of the future as
well as about different scenarios and this is best done in
group discussions and interactive setting.
Not only do group discussions allow for the inclusion of
multiple perspectives, but such settings also foster active
engagement with trends, scenarios and multiple futures.
Following the paradigm of “understating vs. consuming”,
we have created an engaging workshop format, addres-
sing leaders, foresight experts and any other potential
stakeholder or expert interested in disruptive technolo-
gies and their future implications.
This workshop concept is named the “Scenario Game”.
The overarching goal of the Scenario Game is to jointly
develop images of the future based on the information
on technological trends and megatrends compiled in
the previous step of this project. Further, the aim of the
Scenario Game is to enable participants to engage with
multiple futures and challenge their assumption about
the future.
The Scenario Game aims to provide a less time-consu-
ming approach that can be practiced more frequently.
The tight format enables faster and more focused work
in producing scenarios. The interactive aspect further
enhances participant engagement and thus their perfor-
mance and learning experience. The collaborative aspect
improves “buy-in” of the resulting scenarios from par-
ticipating members of an organisation, as well as team
building.
Of course, this cannot replace the analytical rigour of a
full scenario-planning process or the effects of several or-
ganisational interventions, but we believe that we have
created a format that serves either as a starting point to
engage with foresight or that allows us to take discus-
sions regarding the future one step further.

105
5.2 PRINCIPLES
CONTINUED
GROWTH COLLAPSE DISCIPLINE TRANSFORMATION

Figure 5: The "four archetype scenarios".

The Scenario Game is based on two principles. Research has suggested that scenario exercises typically
produce scenario sets that evolve around the same tona-
1. The future cannot be predicted, but can be based on lity, labelled as the four archetypes [Dator, 2009] (Figure
current trends. Potential scenarios can be described and 5). The four archetypes is a classification of future scena-
this is illustrated in the future cone. rios that presents four different types of scenarios that
are typically very useful in thinking about the future. The
2. Scenarios exercises tend to describe four archetypes of four archetype scenarios are defined as follows [Dator,
possible scenarios, which is fundamental for the Scenario 2009]:
Game. • Continued growth is a future in which the current
trajectory and also the current problems persist and are
The future cone (Figure 4) is a representation of the va- enhanced, i.e. it is an expansion of the present. This fu-
rious types of scenarios you can encounter in dealing ture is very similar to business as usual, but not exactly
with the future. These types are: the same. Business as usual is the continuation of the
present, not a continuation of its trajectory.
• Projected scenario: Default extrapolation from today
• Collapse is a future in which the system reaches its
and the “most probable” scenario to come to pass.
limit and collapses.
• Probable scenario: Current trends show that such a
• Discipline is a future of equilibrium. A steady-state
scenario is “likely to happen” in the future.
civilisation focused on sustainability.
• Plausible scenario: Current knowledge indicates that
• Transformation is a future of radical departure from
such a scenario “could happen”.
the present due to a transformative event or phenome-
• Possible scenario: Current knowledge indicates that
non, either spiritual or technological, where the very
such a scenario “might possibly happen”.
concept of being human is redefined.
• Preferable scenario: This represents a desired future
that is “wanted to happen”.

Now Possible
Futur knowledge
"might happen"

Plausible
Current knowledge
"could happen"

Probable
Current knowledge
"could happen"

Projected
Potential Default extrapolation
"most probable"
Everything beyond
the present moment
Preferable
Time Desired future
"wanted to happen"

Figure 4: The future cone [van Dorsser et al., 2018]

106
5.3 DESCRIPTION AND MANUAL
FOR THE GAME

While we provide suggestions on how the Scenario

Game concept can be used, we also want to emphasize
that the approach can be implemented in many ways, for
different purposes and in various settings.
Our suggestions here are based on several Scena-
rio Game workshops we have run, reflecting different
contexts, participant constellations and timeframes.
Why have we called this approach the Scenario Game? It
is not about winning; one cannot win the future. Instead,
it is more about collaboration and playfully exploring
different futures by using different trends in a structured
way.

The Scenario Game comprises two steps: a

We provide the following resources first more explorative step and a second more
for the Scenario Game: structured step. In the first, explorative step,
the participants are assigned to teams and are
— Trend cards provided with the first canvas (Figure 6) and the
— Two scenario canvases trend cards. The teams have the following tasks,
— User guide also listed on the canvas:
— Video tutorial
1. Define the industry or particular area on which they
The Scenario Game can either be played would like to focus.
online of offline. All material is ready-to-print 2. Define the time horizon on which they would like to
and can be found on https://anticipatech.com focus, ranging from up to five, up to ten, and up to 30
years, or even beyond this timeframe depending on the
industry or area of interest.
3. Choose two or three technological trends and me-
gatrends that are most relevant to the chosen focus and
time horizon.
4. Develop a scenario, combining the selected trends to
provide a consistent picture of the future. Find a compel-
ling title that describes this future world (scenario) and
describe it with a few bullets.
Optionally, the cross-impact analysis can be used to
detail the scenarios and also to assess the connections
between the trends.
5. Consider the implications of the selected industry or
focus, e.g. on products, services, operations, strategy or
risk management.

107
 Figure 6: The canvas for the first step of the Scenario Game.

For the second, structured step, participants are

introduced to two key principles of the Scenario
Game: the future cone and the four archetypes.
It is important that you emphasise that the fu-
ture cannot be predicted, but alternative pic-
tures of the future/scenario can be developed
based on current trends. Participants must carry
out the following task using the second canvas
(Figure 7):
1. Allocate the scenario developed on the first canvas to
one of the four archetype scenarios
2. Assess how the first scenario developed would play out
in the other archetypes
3. Consider the implications for the four different scena-
rios
4. The cross-impact analysis can optionally be applied to
provide further details about the scenarios

108
Figure 7: The canvas for the first step of the Scenario Game.

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING:

— Van Dorsser, C et al., “Improving the Link between the Futures Field and Policymaking”, Futures, 104: 75–84, 2018,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328717302513
— Dator, J., “Alternative Futures at the Manoa School”, Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 14, No. 2, 2009,
https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2009-2/vol-14-no-2-november/articles/futuristsalternative-futures-at-the-manoa-school/
— Fergnani, A., “4 Archetypes, Shell, 2x2: Top Three Scenario Planning Methods Explained and Compared”, Article, Medium, 2020,
https://medium.com/predict/4-archetypes-shell-2x2-three-scenario-planning-methods-explained-and-compared-d2e41c474a37

109
6 Conclusion
and next steps

As we conclude this report, you now possess a compre-

hensive understanding of the eleven pivotal technology
trends tracked by armasuisse Science and Technology's
foresight program. Recognising that technological ad-
vances do not occur in isolation, we have also explored
14 additional megatrends. These megatrends will inevi-
tably shape the myriad use cases that leverage these va-
rious technologies, either individually or in synergy.

This knowledge allows you to fully engage with the "Sce-

nario Game," the project's core deliverable. Whether you
have 90 minutes, half a day or a full day, the tailored
processes will enable you to develop a variety of scena-
rios. These scenarios will enhance your understanding of
potential future outcomes and their implications.

Moreover, this project integrates seamlessly with other

initiatives within the deftech program. By combining va-
rious content and processes, you can amplify your crea-
tive potential and envision groundbreaking possibilities.
However, do remember that real impact is achieved in
the present. All the insights and efforts culminate in the
actions you take today.

Let’s work together and harness these trends, leverage

our collective imagination and shape a future that is
both innovative and actionable. The future is not just so-
mething that happens to us, it is something we create.
Let's make it extraordinary!

110
 About section
About section

ABOUT THE PARTICIPATING ORGANISATIONS ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION

The Bavarian Foresight Institute A study conducted by the Bavarian Foresight

– Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt Institute at the Technische Hochschule Ingols-
tadt for the technology foresight programme of
The Bavarian Foresight Institute focuses on armasuisse Science and Technology.
technology-oriented foresight research and the
Study commissioned by: Dr Quentin Ladetto.
associated economic and social interdependen-
cies. Study conducted by: Dr.-Ing. Konstantinos
Konstantinidis, Prof. Dr. Jan Oliver Schwarz, Dr.
Research is carried out in an application-oriented
Quentin Ladetto, Theresa Schropp and Philipp
context. Research results are incorporated into
Schweiger.
consulting projects, published in academic jour-
nals and transferred to industry and society in
various formats. The institute advances young — Acknowledgements
academics by supervising doctoral theses Due
to the close collaboration with various partners, The authors would like to thank the following
the research institute focuses on third-party-fi- people for their contributions to the crea-
nanced public projects as well as industry pro- tion process for this document: Corina Beerli,
jects. Gérôme Bovet, Martin Burkhart, Aurelie Debra,
Olivier Desjeux, Peter Erni, Emmanuel Gardinetti,
https://www.thi.de/en/research/bavarian-foresight-institute/ Regula Gönner, Etienne Guerry, David Humair,
Hanspeter Kaufmann, Alain Mermoud, Ludovic
Armasuisse Science and Technology
Monnerat, Bernard Revaz, Gaëlle Rey, Julien
Sauvain, Adrian Schneider, Christof Schüpbach,
Armasuisse Science and Technology is the Bernhard Tellenbach, Kilian Wasmer and Peter
technology competence centre of the Federal Wellig.
Department of Defence, Civil Protection and
Sport (DDPS). With its expertise in the areas of
testing, research and innovation, it develops
science-based foundations for its partners.
Known as deftech—defence future techno-
logies—the technology foresight research
program of armasuisse S+T inspires, informs
and instructs the armed forces and its various
stakeholders about the opportunities and
threats posed by the use of technology.
Through its products and activities, it contri-
butes to a collaborative and participative pro-
cess that strengthens Switzerland’s defensive
capabilities.

https://www.ar.admin.ch/en/armasuisse-science-and-technology

111
 ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Philipp Schweiger is studying for a Master’s

degree in global foresight and technology ma-
nagement at Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt
and a student assistant at the Bavarian Fore-
Konstantinos Konstantinidis has been invol- sight Institute with a passion for trend explora-
ved in many futures-related studies, including tion and workshop material prototyping.
serious gaming in collaboration with the Eu-
ropean Space Agency (ESA), space technolo-
gy road mapping with the Foresight Institute,
computational scenario exploration with TU
Munich, and writing fortified essays to inform
crowd-based forecasting for metaculus.com. He
has served as an internal research fellow at the
ESA Advanced Concepts Team (ACT). He holds a
PhD in aerospace engineering from the Univer-
sity of the Bundeswehr Munich and has signifi- Jan Oliver Schwarz is a Professor of Strategic
cant experience in the aerospace field. Foresight and Trend Analysis and the head of
the Bavarian Foresight Institute at the Tech-
nische Hochschule Ingolstadt, Germany. His
work specialises in strategic foresight, in par-
ticular strategic foresight processes, trends and
weak signals, scenario planning, business war-
gaming, cultural products (e.g. science fiction)
and design thinking.

Quentin Ladettois the creator and head of the

armasuisse Science and Technology foresight
program

https://deftech.ch.

He holds a PhD in geomatics from the Swiss Fe-

deral Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL), Theresa Schropp is PhD candidate at the Uni-
an Executive MBA in Finance from HEC Lau- versity of the Bundeswehr Munich and of the
sanne and a degree in technology manage- Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt, Germany.
ment from the IMD Business School. He is the Her research focuses on the topic of uncertainty
co-founder of atelierdesfuturs.org and a foun- in the context of decision-making and the asso-
ding member of the Futurs association. ciated relevance of strategic foresight.

112
In a world of rapid and chaotic change where technology plays an important role,
we felt the need to create a foresight ecosystem from which we could structure
and organise debates and exchanges between our different stakeholders.
In this joint project between armasuisse Science and Technology and the Bavarian Foresight
Institute, we do not only provide a collection of relevant technology and megatrends,
wealso provide an engagement format, the “Scenario Game”, that allows us to work
with these trends and explore the future, eventually developing foresight.