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1-1 QUAMET - Introduction To Modeling and Simulation

Models and Simulation

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22 views

1-1 QUAMET - Introduction To Modeling and Simulation

Models and Simulation

Uploaded by

rpmalubay
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1

Quantitative Methods
with Modeling and
Simulation

Introduction to Modeling and Simulation


2

Simulation
• Simulation in general is to pretend that one deals with a real thing while
really working with an imitation.
• Simulation is used before an existing system is altered or a new system
built, to reduce the chances of failure to meet specifications, to eliminate
unforeseen bottlenecks, to prevent under or over-utilization of resources,
and to optimize system performance.
3

Modelling
• Modeling is the process of producing a model.
• A model is a representation of the construction and working of some
system of interest.
• A model is a description of some system intended to predict what happens
if a certain actions are taken.
• A model is similar to but simpler than the system it represents
4

Why use models?


• Models are used in different industries because using a real
system could be very costly, expensive and sometimes
dangerous and often impossible to make experiments with real
systems.
• Provided that models are adequate descriptions of reality (they
are valid), experimenting with them can save money, time and
effort.
5

When to use simulations?


• The use of simulation becomes apparent as soon as a number of factors are
considered to influence the behavior of a system.
• Many approaches, especially statistical ones, are available to analyze
interactions in systems.
• Simulation modeling constitutes a unique approach that it enables the
simultaneous handling a range of such factors and ‘see’ their influence on
the behavior of a system.
6

How is Simulation Performed?


• Simulations may be performed manually. Most often, however, the system
model is written either as a computer program or as some kind of input
into simulator software.
7

Types of Simulator
A simulator is a device, computer program, or system that performs
simulation. A simulation is a method for implementing a model (see model
types) over time. There are three (3) types of commonly uses simulations.

1. Live: Simulation involving real people operating real systems.


✓ Involve individuals or groups
✓ May use actual equipment
✓ Should provide a similar area of operations
✓ Should be close to replicating the actual activity
8

Types of Simulator
2. Virtual: Simulation involving real people operating simulated systems.
Virtual simulations inject Human-In-The-Loop in a central role by
exercising:
✓ Motor control skills
✓ Decision skills
✓ Communication skills
9

Types of Simulator
3. Constructive: Simulation involving simulated people operating simulated
systems. Real people can stimulate (make inputs) but are not involved in
determining outcomes. Constructive simulations offer the ability to:
✓ Analyze concepts
✓ Predict possible outcomes
✓ Stress large organizations
✓ Make measurements
✓ Generate statistics
✓ Perform analysis
10

How to Develop a Simulation Model?


Simulation models consist of the following components: system
entities, input variables, performance measures, and functional relationships.

Step 3. Step 4. Step 6.


Step 1. Step 2.
Collect and Formulate Step 5. Document
Identify Formulate
process and Validate model for
the the
real system develop a the model. future
problem. problem. use.
data. model.
11

Benefits of Simulation Modeling and Analysis


According to practitioners, simulation modeling and analysis is one of
the most frequently used operations research techniques. When used
judiciously, simulation modeling and analysis makes it possible to:
12

Benefits of Simulation Modeling and Analysis

Obtain a better understanding


of the system by developing a Compress time to observe
mathematical model of a certain phenomena over long
Test hypotheses about the
system of interest, and periods or expand time to
system for feasibility.
observing the system's observe a complex
operation in detail over long phenomenon in detail.
periods of time.

Study the effects of certain


informational, organizational, Experiment with new or
environmental and policy unknown situations about
changes on the operation of a which only weak information is
system by altering the available.
system's model.
13

Benefits of Simulation Modeling and Analysis

Identify the "driving"


variables - ones that Identify bottlenecks in the
Use multiple performance
performance measures flow of entities (material,
metrics for analyzing
are most sensitive to - and people, etc.) or
system configurations.
the inter-relationships information.
among them.

Develop well designed


Employ a systems
and robust systems and
approach to problem
reduce system
solving.
development time.
14

What are Some Pitfalls to Guard Against in Simulation?


Simulation can be a time consuming and complex exercise, from
modeling through output analysis, that necessitates the involvement of
resident experts and decision makers in the entire process. Following is a
checklist of pitfalls to guard against.

Using simulation
Simulation model
when an analytic Erroneous
Unclear objective. Invalid model. too complex or too
solution is assumptions.
simple.
appropriate.
15
What are Some Pitfalls to Guard Against in Simulation?

Using the Using the


Replacing a Bugs in the
Undocumented wrong input wrong
assumptions. distribution simulation
probability performance
by its mean. program.
distribution. measure.

Poor
Using standard communication
statistical formulas Making one
Poor schedule among the
that assume Initial bias in simulation run
independence in and budget personnel
output data. for a
simulation output planning. involved in the
configuration.
analysis. simulation
study.
References:

➢ http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/simulation/sim.htm#rwis
➢ https://www.acqnotes.com/Attachments/White%20Paper%20Introduction%20to%20Mode
ling%20and%20Simulation%20by%20Anu%20Maria.pdf
➢ https://uh.edu/~lcr3600/simulation/historical.html
➢ https://www.apsnet.org/edcenter/disimpactmngmnt/topc/BotanicalEpidemiology/Pages/Si
mulationModels.aspx
➢ https://acqnotes.com/acqnote/tasks/simulator-types
➢ https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zvxp34j/revision/1
➢ https://www.itrelease.com/2018/09/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-simulation/

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