Monthly Pricing Update

Chemicals Valuation snapshot

Mkt Cap CMP TP Upside PER (x)
Pricing witnesses an uptick
Companies Reco Rs bn (Rs) (Rs) (%) FY25E FY26E
Summary SRF HOLD 666 2,343 2,382 6.1 56.8 44.3
Majority of the chemicals exhibited uptick in pricing on MoM basis in Oct-24. Neogen Chem. BUY 58 2,298 2,871 31.4 95.0 73.6
Notably, prices of caustic soda lye registered a sharp upmove MoM from Rs Navin Fluorine HOLD 164 3,495 3,780 14.0 60.5 43.2
35/kg to Rs 43 /kg benefitting major players such as Grasim, DCM Shriram and Ami Organics BUY 81 2,083 2,250 14.1 72.0 44.2
Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals. We expect progressive demand recovery from Clean Science HOLD 160 1,544 1,500 -0.1 51.9 41.2
the agrochemical sector from H2FY25. Select pockets/therapies in the pharma Source: IDBI Capital Research

sector are seeing healthy growth. Companies which are moving higher up the
value chain in terms of scale and complexity stand to benefit immensely from a
longer term perspective. Ami Organics remains one of our preferred names on
the back of rich expertise in manufacturing of Advanaced Pharma Intemediates
and upcoming capex ramp up of the Ankleshwar unit. We are also positive on
Neogen Chemicals owing to its deep bromination expertise and strong first
mover advantage into battery chemicals.

Key Highlights
 Pricing Highlights: Maleic Anhydride and Phthalic Anyhydride have each
registered decline of of 3% MoM which impacted major manufacturers such
as Thirumalai Chem and IGPL respectively. TDI increased by 5% MoM
benefitting prominent players such as BASF and GNFC. Heavy Soda Ash prices
decreased by 3% MoM marginally impacting major players such as Tata
Chemicals, GHCL, DCW and GFL. Acetic Acid also registered a dip of 2% MoM.
 Outlook: We believe that commodity chemicals segment could remain range
bound from the current levels owing to decent domestic demand. However,
Chinese competition will continue to exert pricing pressure especially on
commodity chemicals. Companies that are delivering value added products
Jason Soans
and moving higher up the value chain in terms of scale and complexity will jason.soans@idbicapital.com
fare better as compared to pure commodity plays in the long term. +91-22-4069 1992

November 7, 20241
Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Exhibit 1: Pricing Snapshot

Drawdown
Chemical Oct-24 Oct-23 YoY (Change) Sep-24 MoM (Change) Peak
from Peak
Benzene 95 88 8% 99 -4% 120 -21%
Aniline 170 160 6% 161 6% 254 -33%
Heavy Soda Ash 37 36 3% 38 -3% 55 -33%
Toluene 81 100 -19% 79 3% 155 -48%
Phthalic Anhydride 95 103 -8% 98 -3% 134 -29%
Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) 65 61 7% 65 0% 91 -29%
Phenol 118 112 5% 116 2% 166 -29%
Acetone 87 96 -9% 92 -5% 130 -33%
Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) 116 114 2% 115 1% 155 -25%
Acetonitrile 135 125 8% 133 2% 330 -59%
Acetic Acid 54 57 -5% 55 -2% 160 -66%
Caustic Soda Lye 43 32 33% 35 23% 72 -41%
Ethyl Acetate 76 88 -14% 74 3% 140 -46%
Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) 235 208 13% 224 5% 300 -22%
Maleic Anhydride 95 94 1% 98 -3% 174 -45%
Methanol 35 34 3% 33 6% 54 -35%
Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) 79 162 -51% 76 4% 231 -66%
Acrylic Acid 97 93 4% 96 1% 290 -67%
LDPE 120 93 29% 118 2% 151 -21%
HDPE 96 93 3% 95 1% 138 -30%
Source: Indianpetrochem, Change % based on month end prices, Peak Price =Max (From Jan-2021 to current date)

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Exhibit 2: Brief Profile

Chemicals Indian Manufacturer Major Consumer
Benzene BPCL, RIL, IOCL, ONGC Aarti Inds, Apcotex, CFS, NFIL, Vinati, Deepak Nitrite, Valiant Org,
Jyothy Labs
Aniline GNFC, HOCL Aarti Ind, Atul Ltd, Aurobindo, Bayer, Monsanto, UPL, BASF,
Deepak Nitrite, Nocil, Valiant Org, Bodal, Bhageria, Kiri
Soda Ash Tata Chem, GHCL, DCW, GFL Deepak Nitrite
Toluene Reliance, BPCL, Indian Oil Aarti, NFIL, Vinati, Deepak Nitrite
Phthalic Anhydride Thirumalai Chem, IGPL
Mono Ethylene Glycol RIL, India Glycols, IOCL
Phenol Deepak Phenolics, Hindustan Organics
Acetone Deepak Phenolics, SI Group GSFC, ITC, Berger, Shalimar, Torrent Pharma, Sun Pharma, Asian
Paints, Kansai Nerolac, Pfizer, NFIL
Iso Propyl Alcohol (IPA) Deepak Nitrite, Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals
Acetonitrile Alkyl amines, Balaji amines, Deepak Novochem
Acetic acid GNFC Reliance, IOCL, Apcotex, SRF, Deepak Nitrite, Laxmi Org.

Caustic soda Grasim, DCM Shriram, GACL, Nalco, RIL, Arvind Mills, Deepak Nitrite, GNFC, GSFC, IOC, Meghmani
DCW, TGV Sraac Organics, Nirma, NALCO, HUL, UPL
Ethyl Acetate GNFC, Jubilant Ingrevia, Laxmi Organics
TDI BASF, GNFC
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Reliance, ONGC, GAIL
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) Reliance
Maleic Anhydride Thirumalai Chem, IGPL
Methanol RCF, NFL, IOCL, Deepak Fertilizers, GNFC, GSFC Alkyl Amines, Balaji Amines, Aarti, CFS, NFIL, SRF, Vinati
PAN (Phthalic Anhydride) Thirumalai Chem, IGPL
Acrylic Acid BPCL, IOCL, BASF, GSFC Apcotex, Black Rose, Balmer Lawrie, Fineotex
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Exhibit 3: Benzene Prices down by ~4% MoM Exhibit 4: Aniline Prices up by ~6% MoM
130 200
110 180
160
90
140
70 120
50 100

Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Jul-24
Jan-24

Aug-24
Dec-23

May-24
Jun-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Apr-24
Mar-24

Oct-24
Jul-24
Dec-23
Jan-24

Aug-24
May-24
Jun-24

Sep-24
Nov-23

Feb-24
Price (Rs/Litre) Price (Rs/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

Exhibit 5: Heavy Soda Ash down by ~3% MoM Exhibit 6: Toluene Prices up by ~3% MoM
50 105
45 100
40
95
35
30 90
25 85
20 80
Apr-24

Oct-24
Mar-24
Jan-24

Aug-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Dec-23
Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

Sep-24

Apr-24

Oct-24
Mar-24

Jul-24
Jan-24
Dec-23

May-24
Jun-24

Aug-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Price (Rs/KG) Price (Rs/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Exhibit 7: Phthalic Anhydride down by ~3% MoM Exhibit 8: Monoethylene Glycol flat MoM
130 70
120 65
110
60
100
90 55
80 50

Apr-24

Oct-24
Mar-24
Jan-24

Aug-24
Dec-23

May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24

Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Jan-24

Jun-24
Jul-24
Dec-23

Aug-24
May-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Price (Rs/KG) Price (Rs/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

Exhibit 9: Phenol Prices up by ~2% MoM Exhibit 10: Acetone Prices down by ~5% MoM
130 130
120 110
110
90
100
90 70

80 50

Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Jan-24

Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Dec-23

May-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Mar-24
Jan-24

Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Dec-23
Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

Sep-24
Price (Rs/KG) Price (Rs/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Exhibit 11: Isopropyl Alcohol remained flat on MoM Exhibit 12: Acetonitrile Prices up by ~2% MoM
170 150
140
150
130
130
120
110 110
90 100

Apr-24

Oct-24
Mar-24
Jan-24

Aug-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Dec-23
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Mar-24
Apr-24

Aug-24

Oct-24
Jan-24

Jun-24
Jul-24
Dec-23

May-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Price (Rs/KG) Price (Rs/KG)

Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

Exhibit 13: Acetic Acid Prices down by ~2% MoM Exhibit 14: Caustic Soda Prices up by ~23% MoM
70 45
65 40
60 35
55
30
50
45 25
40 20
Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Jan-24

Jun-24
Jul-24

Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Aug-24
Dec-23

Jul-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

Sep-24

Jan-24

Jun-24

Aug-24
Dec-23

May-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Price(Rs/KG) Price (Rs/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Exhibit 15: Ethyl Acetate up by ~3% MoM Exhibit 16: Toluene Diisocyanate up by ~5% MoM
95 250
90 230
85 210
80 190
75 170
70 150

Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Jul-24
Jan-24

Aug-24
Dec-23

May-24
Jun-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24

Apr-24

Oct-24
Mar-24
Jan-24

Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Dec-23

May-24
Nov-23

Feb-24
Price (Rs/KG) Price (Rs/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

Exhibit 17: Maleic Anhydride down by ~3% MoM Exhibit 18: HDPE up by ~1% MoM
120 100
110 95
100
90
90
80 85

70 80
Jan-24

Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Dec-23
Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24
Jun-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24
Price (Rs/KG) Price (Rs/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Exhibit 19: LDPE up by ~2% MoM Exhibit 20: Methanol up by ~6% MoM
130 36
120 34
110 32
100 30
90
28

Apr-24

Oct-24
Mar-24

Jul-24
Jan-24

Aug-24
Dec-23

Feb-24

May-24
Jun-24

Sep-24
Nov-23

Apr-24

Oct-24
Mar-24
Jan-24

Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Dec-23

May-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Price (Rs/ KG) Price (Rs/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

Exhibit 21: Acrylic Acid remained flat on MoM Exhibit 22: VAM up by ~4% MoM
100
160
80
140
60
120
40
100
20
80 0
Jan-24

Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Jul-24
Jun-24

Aug-24
Dec-23

May-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24

Mar-24
Apr-24

Oct-24
Jan-24

Jul-24
Jun-24

Aug-24
Dec-23

May-24
Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Price (Rs/ KG) Price (RS/KG)
Source: Indianpetrochem Source: Indianpetrochem

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Exhibit 23: Sectoral Stock Performance

Mkt Cap Performance (%) Relative to Index (%)
Rs bn 1M 12M 3 Year 5 Year 1M 12M 3 Year 5 Year
SRF 716 -10% 2% 6% 287% -4% -25% -31% 183%
Deepak Nitrite 345 -9% 33% 18% 673% -3% 6% -19% 569%
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 400 1% 55% 137% 551% 7% 28% 100% 448%
Aarti Industries 244 -6% 27% 37% 104% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Navin Fluorine International 167 -3% -3% 0% 271% 3% -30% -37% 167%
Fine Organics 135 -12% 12% -39% 34% -6% -14% -76% -70%
Clean Science 141 -2% 7% -7% 90% 5% -19% -44% -14%
Aether Industries 111 -7% 10% 48% 156% -1% -17% 11% 52%
Alkyl Amines 101 -9% -2% -42% 489% -3% -29% -79% 385%
GNFC 99 -7% -10% 36% 189% -1% -36% -1% 85%
Galaxy Surfactants 91 5% 36% 83% 461% 11% 9% 46% 357%
Anupam Rasayan 86 -8% -3% NA NA -2% -30% NA NA
Jubilant Ingrevia 81 -8% 71% 7% NA -1% 44% -30% NA
Balaji Amines 74 -7% 4% -38% 557% -1% -23% -75% 454%
Laxmi Organics 71 -4% 7% -40% NA 2% -20% -77% NA
Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals 56 3% 19% 14% 84% 9% -8% -23% -20%
GHCL 48 -13% 3% 45% 183% -6% -24% 8% 79%
Ami Organics 45 0% -17% -9% NA 6% -44% -46% NA
Neogen Chemicals 41 14% 69% 93% NA 20% 42% 56% NA
I G Petrochemicals 15 -4% 18% -31% 259% 2% -9% -68% 155%
Source: Bloomberg, IDBI Capital Research

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

Notes

JASON
Digitally signed by JASON SOANS
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street=MUMBAI, l=MUMBAI, o=Personal,
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e89be65d50949395f4fc8d78a71a08fad,
pseudonym=29a8b729d736ec42a9ad23abd40e7d05

SOANS
,
2.5.4.20=fc05d343356e1241bbf8392a99e734cef77c9
32f51a85e2bb77f2714f9e8a242,
email=JASON.SOANS@IDBICAPITAL.COM, cn=JASON
SOANS
Date: 2024.11.07 09:06:03 +05'30'

Dealing (91-22) 6836 1111 dealing@idbicapital.com

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

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Chemicals | Monthly Pricing Update

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