DEMOGRAPHY

BY
CHE DESMOND (BMLS, M.Sc MPVB, UB)
Email :cdesmondshu@gmail.com

LECTURE I

DEMOGRAPHY

 Define Demography

 Identify the different sources of demographic data

 Explain the differences between the major sources of data

 List and state steps needed in conducting population census

Demography

Demography can be defined as the study of human populations including their

composition, distributions, densities, growth and other characteristics as well as the

causes and consequences of changes in these factors. Demography, as understood today,

is the scientific study of human population and its dynamics. It is derived from two

greek words: Demos which means population or people and graphics which means to

draw.

Concepts of Demography

Demography focuses its attention on three readily available human phenomena:

• Changes in population size (growth or decline)

• The composition of the population and

• The distribution of population in space.

Demography deals with major “demographic processes” namely fertility, mortality and

migration. These processes are continually at work within a population

determining its size, composition and distribution.

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Sources of Demographic Data

Demographic data are important in providing factual basis for decisions on matters of

public policy and action concerning social and economic affairs. These data can be

processed to indicate present and future requirements of the population in terms of the

types and extent of social needs of the society such as health, education and

employment. The major sources of demographic data include:

Census

Census is defined as an enumeration or complete population count at a point in time

within a specified geographical area. A census provides more reliable and accurate data

if properly enumerated.

Steps in Conducting Census

The major steps to be followed in a census include.

• Planning and preparation

• Collecting information

• Compilation and analysis

• Evaluation

Techniques of Census Taking

There are two techniques of conducting census, dejure and defacto.

a. Dejure

This technique is the counting of people according to the permanent place of location

or residence.

Advantages

• It gives permanent picture of a community.

• It provides more realistic and useful statistics.

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 Disadvantages

• Some persons may be omitted from the count. A household member who is

temporarily away from home may be missed from being counted unless the

enumerator makes sure that nobody is missing.

• Some may be counted twice.

• Information collected regarding persons away from home is often incomplete or

incorrect.

b. Defacto

This technique of conducting census refers to counting persons where they are present

at the time of the census period.

Advantages

• There is less chance for the omission of persons from the count.

Disadvantages

• Difficult to obtain information regarding persons in transit. These are persons who are,

for example travelling and have left their area of permanent residence but haven’t

reached the area of destination during the census day.

• It provides incorrect picture of the population in a community.

• Vital statistics are usually distorted (in areas with high migration).

Use of Census

A census is useful for:

• Planning

• Calculating health indicators and vital indices.

Qualities of a good Census

A census must have the following qualities

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• It should include every individual in the area (no omission or duplication).

• Information should relate to a well – defined point in time.

• It should be taken at regular intervals (preferably every 10 years).

• It should refer to people inhabiting a well defined territory.

• Information be obtained from personal contact.

Registration of vital events (Records or Statistics)

It is a regular and continuous registration of vital events. Civil registration system, which

records births, deaths, marriages etc. (vital statistics), enables rates of population growth

to be calculated; but are much less adequate than national censuses. In developing

countries where illiteracy rates are high and communications are poor, the problems of

recording births and deaths are immense not only in rural populations but also in urban

areas. However, efforts are being made to improve the collection of these data in many

countries.

Sample Surveys

A sample survey is another source of demographic data carried out in a scientifically

selected area which covers only a section or portion (sample) of the population under

consideration. As countries have began increasingly to formulate population policies as

part of their development programs, demographic surveys have become

increasingly important as a comparatively rapid method of obtaining such information.

It was recognized that the quality of demographic data available for the developing

world was poor and the need for better data both for scientific study and for policy

application is also recognized.

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Ad-hoc Demographic studies

Ad-hoc studies are conducted in response to specific need, events, or request.It can be

conducted by the health survey units in response to specific needs by the ministryn of

public health, the national health council or a non-goveernmental organisation.

Method of Data Collection

Decision-makers need information that is relevant, timely, accurate and usable. The

cost of obtaining, processing and analyzing these data is high. The challenge is to find

ways, which lead to information that is cost-effective, relevant, timely and important

for immediate use. Some methods pay attention to timeliness and reduction in cost.

Others pay attention to accuracy and the strength of the method in using scientific

approaches. The statistical data may be classified under two categories, depending upon

the sources.

1) Primary data

Primary data are those data, which are collected by the investigator himself for the purpose of a

specific inquiry or study. Such data are original in character and are mostly generated by surveys

conducted by individuals or research institutions. The first hand information obtained by the

investigator is more reliable and accurate since the investigator can extract the correct

information by removing doubts, if any, in the minds of the respondents regarding certain

questions.

2) Secondary data

Secondary data is when an investigator uses data, which have already been collected by others,

such data are called "Secondary Data". Such data are primary data for the agency that collected

them, and become secondary for someone else who uses these data for his own purposes. The

secondary data can be obtained from;

 Journals, reports,

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 Government publications,

 Publications of professionals

 Research organizations

Study Questions

1. What is Demography?

2. Name and explain the different sources of demographic data?

3. State the steps that should be fallowed to undertake a population census.

4. Explain the advantages and limitations of sample surveys.

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 LECTURE II

DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURMENT TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

 State the measurements used in demographic data

 Calculate ratios, proportions and rates and their importance

 List and calculate the different measures of fertility and mortality

The major demographic processes of fertility, mortality and migration constitute the

basic components to determine the size, composition and distribution of a population

which require basic tools and techniques of measurement.

I. Tools of Measurement

The tools of measurement include:

Ratios

Examples:

• Sex Ratio (male – female) = Males/ Females

• Doctor to Population Ratio = Number of Doctors /Number of Population

• Dependency Ratio = No. of People < 15 years +65 years and above /No. of

Population 15-64 years of age

Exercise

1.Between 1971 and 1975, as part of the National Health and Nutrition Examination

Survey (NHANES), 7,381 persons ages 40–77 years were enrolled in a follow-up study.

At the time of enrollment, each study participant was classified as having or not having

diabetes. During 1982–1984, enrollees were documented either to have died or were

still alive. The results are summarized as follows.

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Of the men enrolled in the NHANES follow-up study, 3,151 were nondiabetic and 189

were diabetic. Calculate the ratio of non-diabetic to diabetic men.

2. Delaware’s infant mortality rate in 2001 was 10.7 per 1,000 live births.2 New

Hampshire’s infant mortality rate in 2001 was 3.8 per 1,000 live births. Calculate the

ratio of the infant mortality rate in Delaware to that in New Hampshire.

Proportions

Males to total population ratio = Males x 100/ Males + females

• Illegitimate Birth Ratio = No. of illegitimate live births x 100 / Total No. of live

births.

Exercise

Calculate the proportion of men in the NHANES follow-up study who were diabetics.

Rates

A rate measures the occurrence of some particular event (example death) in a population

during a given time period. It is a statement of the risk of developing a condition. It

indicates the change in some event that takes place in a population over a period of time.

It is defined per unit of time. Rate = Vital event X (K) /Population at risk

Example:

Death Rate = No. of deaths in one year X 1000 /Mid year population

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II. Techniques of Demographic Measurement

A change in the overall size of a population is the result of three cumulative changes in

the number of births, deaths and migrants. Since births and deaths occur continuously,

and since people frequently change their place of residence, they are the bases of

demographic analysis. Depending on their direction and magnitude these processes are

important for social and economic planning, in assessing the present needs and the needs

of the future expansion of socio-economic infrastructure. The techniques for measuring

fertility, mortality and migration are described further.

Measure of Fertility(Natality)

Fertility is the reproductive performance of an individual, a couple, a group or a

population. Fertility measures are population-based measures of birth. It is meant the

actual bearing of children. . Fertility leads to increase of population.

Note fecundity differs from fertility. Fecundity refers to the physiological capability of

a woman to reproduce. A woman’s reproductive period is roughly 15 – 49 years of age.

These measures are used primarily by persons working in the field of maternal and child

health. The most important measures of fertility include:

a. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

The crude birth rate indicates the number of live births (children born alive) per 1000

mid – year population in a given year.

CBR = Number of live births in a year X 1000 /Total mid – year population In the world

CBR varies widely from population to population. It is high for population of the

developing countries and low for those of the developed ones.

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b. General Fertility Rate (GFR)

The General Fertility Rate is the number of live births per 1000 females aged 15-49

years (fertile age group) in a given year. The GFR in more sensitive measure of fertility

than the CBR, since it refers to the age and sex group capable of giving birth (females

15-49 years of age). It eliminates distortions that might arise due to different age and

sex distributions among the total population. The major limitation of GFR is that not all

women in the denominator are exposed to the risk of child birth.

GFR = Number of live births in a year X 1000/ Number of females 15-49 years of age.

The GFR is approximately four times the CBR.

c. Age specific fertility rates (ASFR)

The Age specific fertility rate is defined as the number of children born alive to females

in a specific age group per 1000 females in that specific age group, example (15-19),

(20-24),….. (45-49) years of age.

ASFR = No. of live births to females in a specific age group in a year X 1000

/Mid-year population of females of the same age group.

For example, ASFR for women 20 – 24 years of age is expressed as:

ASFR (20-24) = Live births to women 20- 24 years of age X 1000 /Total No. of females

20 – 24 years of age. Exercise if there were 4,000,000 women (females) in the age group

20-24 years and if the there were 200,000 live births to women in the same age group,

the Age specific fertility rate for these women (20-24 years of age) will be?

d. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The total Fertility Rate is the average number of children that would be born to a woman

throughout her life time or her child bearing age (15-49 years), if she were to pass

through all her child bearing years at the same rates as the women now in each age

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group. The TFR sums up in a single number the Age Specific Fertility Rates of all

women at a given point in time. If 5 – year age groups are used, the sum of the rates is

multiplied by 5. This measure gives the approximate magnitude of “completed family

size”. The TFR is one of most useful indicators of fertility, because it gives the best

picture of how many children women are having currently. TFR = Sum of all Age

specific fertility rates multiplied by age

interval
(Usually 5).
Age group of Number of Number of Age specific

mothers Women live births to birth rates

15-19 years 1,237,721 117,583 0.095

20-24 978,136 268,987 0.275

25-29 979,623 283,111 0.289

30-34 989,693 254,351 0.257

35-39 814,243 162,034 0.199

40-44 548,882 57,633 0.105

45-49 406,540 22,766 0.056

Total 5,954,838 1,166,465 1.276

e. Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

a woman throughout her lifetime or child bearing age (15-49 years), if she were to pass

through all her child bearing age. This rate is like the TFR except that it counts only

daughters and literally measures “reproduction”; a woman reproducing herself by

having a daughter. The GRR is calculated by multiplying the TFR by the

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proportion of female births (Sex Ratio at birth).

GRR = TFR X Male births /Male + Female births

Example: - Given that the sex ratio at birth of Cameroon (2001) was 100.6 males for

every 100 females - and that the TFR (2001) was 5.9 (5.9 children per women).

Therefore,

GRR = TFR X proportion of female births

GRR = 5.9 X 100 /200.6= 2.94

= 2.9 daughters /woman

f. Child – Woman Ratio (CWR)

Child woman ratio is defined as the number of children 0 – 4 years of age per 1000

women of child bearing age, (15 -49 years). This ratio is used where birth registration

statistics do not exist or are inadequate. It is estimated through data derived from

censuses.

CWR = No of children 0 – 4 years of age X 1000/ Total No of women 15 – 49 years

age

Example:

If the number of children under 5 years of age in an area is 2,000,000 and the number

of women 15 – 49 years of age is 8,000,000.

The CWR = 2,000,000 X 1000 /8,000,000= 250 /1000 . That is 250 children 0 – 4 years

of age (under five) per 1000 women of the reproductive age.

Measures of Mortality (Death)

Mortality refers to deaths that occur within a population (reduction of population). The

incidence of death can reveal much about the living standard, the health status of a

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population and the availability of health services. Mortality (Death) rates have three

essential elements:

• A population group exposed to the risk of death (denominator) •

The number of deaths occurring in that population group (numerator)

• A time period.

a) Crude Death (Mortality) Rate (CDR)

The crude death rate is the number of deaths per 1000 population in a given year. CDR

= Total number of deaths in a year X 1000 /Mid-year population

b) Age specific Death (Mortality) Rates

Death Rates can be calculated for specific age groups, in order to compare mortality at

different ages. E.g. for infants (< one year of age), children 1-4 yeas of age, children

under five years, etc.

ASMR = Number of deaths in a specific age group X 1000 /Mid-year population of the

same age group.

c) Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

Infant Mortality Rate is the number of deaths of infants under one year of age (0-11

months of age) per 1000 live births in a given year. Infant (children under one year of

age) are at highest risk of death than any other age group.

IMR = Number of death of children < 1 year of age in a year X 1000 /Total live births

during that year

d) Child Mortality Rate (CMR)

It is the number of deaths of children 1-4 years of age per 1000 children 1-4 years of

age. It is a sensitive indicators of the health status of a community.

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CMR = Number of deaths of children 1-4 year of age in a year X 000 /Total number of

children 1-4 years of age

e) Under Five Mortality Rate (<5MR)

It is the number of deaths of children under five years of age in a year (0-4 years of age)

per 1000 children under five years of age (0-4 year). It is also a very good indicator of

the health states of a community

<5MR = Number of deaths of children <5 yrs in a year X 1000 /Total number of children

< 5 years of age

f) Neonatal Mortality Rate (NNMR)

Neonatal period is the first month of age of an infant. Neonatal mortality (death) is the

death of infants under one month (<4 weeks). Per 1000 live births.

Neonatal Mortality Rate (NNMR) = Number of deaths of infants < 1 mouth in a

year X 1000 /Total number of live births in the same year

Neonatal mortality rate reflects mortality due to:

 . Maternal factors during pregnancy

 Birth injuries

 Neonatal infection, etc.

It is an indicator of the level of prenatal and obstetric components of maternal and child

health care (MCH).

g) Maternal Mortaly (Death) Rate (MMR)

Maternal mortality rate is the number of maternal deaths related to pregnancy, child

birth and post natal (peurperium) complications per 1000 live births (usually per

100,000 Life Birth).

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MMR = Number of deaths of women related to pregnancy child birth and peurperium

in a year X 100,000 /Total number of live births in the same year.

It is a sensitive indicator of health status of a population. It reflects the socioeconomic

status of a community. The Maternal Mortality Rate of Cameroun was estimated to be

more than 782 deaths per 100,000 live births annually. This is among the highest in the

world.

Sex Specific Death Rates (SSDR)

Sex Specific Death Rate is the number of deaths among a specific sex group (males or

females) per 1000 population of the same sex group.

Sex specific Death (Mortality) Rate for males = Number of deaths among males X 100

/Total number of males

Sex specific mortality rate is used to determine which sex group is at higher risk of death

than the other.

Study Questions

1. What are ratios, proportions and rates? Explain their differences.

2. Distinguish the difference between fertility and fecundity

3. List and define the important demographic measures of fertility and mortality.

LECTURE III

POPULATION

 Define popualtion

 Identify the concept migration

 Explain the differences between four stages population

 Explain population structure (composition) and pyramid

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A popualtion is a group of individuals of same species living in the same geographic

area at the same time. A population is often defined by demographers according to the

specific needs of the research and researcher. As seen in previous lectures three

processes are relevant to population dynamics: Fertility,mortality, and migration.

Migration

Human migration is the movement of people from one place to another with intentions

of settling, permanently or temporarily, at a new location (geographic region). It can

also be defined as the trends or the movement of people from one location to another.

The movement often occurs over long distances and from one country to another, but

internal migration (within a single country) is also possible; indeed, this is the dominant

form of human migration globally. Migration is often associated with better human

capital at both individual and household level, and with better access to migration

networks. Age is also important for both work and non-work migration. There are only

two ways to enter a population by birth and by in-migration. There are two ways to

leave a population, by death and by out-migration. For example, the population of

interest may be that of students attending a specific university during a specific year. In

this situation, the students are born (i.e., enter) into the population when they enroll, and

they die (i.e., leave) when they graduate.

The differences between births and deaths in a population produces the Natural Increase

(or Decrease) of a population. The rate of natural population increase is the rate at which

a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year due to excess

(or deficit) of births over deaths expressed as a percentage of the base population.

RNI = Births - Deaths X 100/Total Population

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Net Migration

This is the difference between the numbers of persons entering a geographic area

(Immigrants) and those leaving the area (emigrants).

Growth rate

Growth rate = (birthrate – deathrate) + (immigation – emmigration)

Total Population Growth Rate

It is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year due to

natural increase and net migration expressed as a percentage of the base population.

Total Growth Rate = Natural increase + Net Migration X 100 /Total Population

Population Dynamics

Definition

Population dynamics is the study of the changes in population size

and structure over time

Major Factors in Population Dynamics

Three major factors or variables determine the population of a defined area and its

growth over time. There are:

♦ Births (Fertility)

♦ Deaths (Mortality)

♦ Migration

a) immigration (in migration)

b) emigration (out migration)

The balance among these three factors determines whether a population increases,

remains stationary, or decreases in number. The relation between births and deaths is

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referred to as Natural Population Increase (Natural Population Growth). When the net

effect of migration is added to natural increase, this is referred to as Total Increase

(Total Growth).

Population structure (composition)

Aside from the total size, the most important demographic characteristic of a population

is its population structure. Population structure refers to the composition of the

population in terms of Age, sex, occupation, religion, educational status, geographical

distribution, socio– economic status etc. The structure of a population is influenced or

affected by births, deaths and migration and their predisposing factors.

The age – sex structure determines potential for future growth of specific age groups, as

well as the total population. For these reasons the age structure has significant

government policy implications. A population of young people needs a sufficient

number of schools and later, enough jobs to accommodate them. Countries with a large

proportion of older people must develop retirement systems and medical facilities to

serve them. Therefore, as a population ages needs change from child care schools and

jobs tol to jobs, housing, and medical care.

Population pyramid

The age–sex structure of a country can be studied through population pyramids.

Population pyramids show pictorially (graphically) the effects of the three factors that

influence population. The overall shape of the pyramid indicates the potential for future

growth. Population pyramids present the population of an area or country interms of its

composition by age and sex at a point in time. The series of horizontal bars in a pyramid

represent the percentage contribution of each age and sex groups (often of five years

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age group interval) in the population. A glance at a population pyramid can tell a great

deal about that population. One can easily see whether a population is young or old. By

convention males are shown on the left and females on the right of the pyramid. Young

persons at the bottom and the elderly at the top. The ratio or percentage of the various

age groups in a population determines the current reproductive status of the population

and indicate what may be expected in the future. The shape of the pyramid reflects the

major influences on births and deaths, plus any change due to migration over three or

four generations proceeding the date of the pyramid. The following four representations

of population age – sex structure provide an overall example of what a pyramid for

different levels of population growth would look like – rapid growth, slow growth, zero

growth and negative growth.

a. A pyramid with a Broad Base

This indicates a high percentage of young population. Rapid population growth. The

low survivorship and high natality of human population in many developing countries

result in a pyramidal stable age - structure, in which most of the population is young.

E.g Nigeria

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b. A Bell shaped Polygon:-

This indicates a moderate proportion of young to old population. Slow population

growth.

c. A Rectangular Polygon:-

In a more developed countries high survivorship and low natality produce populations

with an almost rectangular, stable age structure in which all age groups are equally

abundant. Zero population growth. E.g United States.

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d. An Urn - shaped Figure

This type of shape indicates a low percentage of young Population, which is

characteristic of a declining Population. Negative population growth. E.g Germany.

Demographic stages

1. Pre-industrial Stage

Agrarian civilizations (primitive stage) are characterised by stable or slowly growing

populations with crude birth rates greater than 45 per 1000 and crude death rates greater

than 35 per 1000 births. Agricultural existence favours large families.

However high birth rates are balanced by high death rates from diseases famine, war etc

resulting in very low population growth.

summary

 Birth and death rates high

 Modest population growth

2. Transitional Stage

Advances in sanitation and improved availability and quality of food, water, and shelter

lead to fall in death rate and an increase in life expectancy. This has usually occurred

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without an immediate change in birth rate; however, the improved conditions of life

may favour an increase in fertility. During this period, a marked excess of births over

deaths developed leading to a rapid expansion of population.

summary

 Lowered death rate

 Rapid population growth

3. Industrial Stage

After a time, birth rates tend to fall, largely as a reflection of industrialisation and

consequent urbanisation. With industrialization people tend to migrate from rural to

urban areas. Urban living not only breaks the traditional patterns but also creates

incentives for having small families. Living quarters are cramped, children being a

financial liability rather than asset. There is a grater need for cash, since food and

clothing can no longer be produced at home. For these reasons husbands and wives are

impelled to seek work outside the home for wages. There is a greater geographic

proximity to health care service and to the availability of information and service for

disease and family planning. These various factors increase the likelihood that

contraceptive practices will be adopted. In some places abortion has been included in

the measures available for the control of fertility. This stage is a situation in which birth

rates and death rates are again essentially in balance, but at a lower level as compared

with those of the primitive first stage, when both crude birth rate and crude death rate

are in the vicinity of less than 20 per 1000 and 10 per thousand

respectively.

summary

 Birth rate decline

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 Population growth slow

4. Post Industrial Stage

This stage is reached in highly developed societies when both birth and death rates are

low and population growth rates are zero or even negative.

summary

Low birth and death rates

The Demographic Transition Model

Study Questions

1. Define the following demographic terms Natural population increase,

andPopulation Dynamics.

2. What is the demographic transition and why was population growth

so slow during the first stages of the

transition.

3. What does it mean to have a “young” or “old” population?

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