SS 1023A (Statistical Concepts) and

SS 2037A (Statistics for Health)

Fall 2024

1

 How to Get
Chapter 4
a Good Sample

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Outcomes:
• Identify which type of study was used in a news
article, choosing from survey, census,
randomized experiment, observational study,
meta-analysis or case-study.
• Explain how the participants were chosen
influences what can be concluded.
• Calculate a margin of error for a population
percent
• Explain how to get representative samples,
including simple random samples, stratified,
cluster, systematic, and multistage samples.
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Chapter topics:
• Research strategies: sample surveys,
randomized experiments and observational
studies
• Definition and terminologies related to
sampling
• Margin of error
• Sampling methods
• Difficulties in sampling
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Thought Question 1:
Suppose a properly chosen sample of 1600
people across the United States was asked
if they regularly watch a certain television
program, and 24% said yes.
How close do you think that is to the
percentage of the entire country who watch
the show? Within 30%? 10%? 5%? 1%?
Exactly the same?

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Thought Question 2:
Suppose you had a telephone directory
listing all the businesses in a city,
alphabetized by type of business.
If you wanted to phone 100 of them to get
a representative sampling of opinion on
some issue, how would you select which
100 to phone?
Why would it not be a good idea to simply
use the first 100 businesses listed?

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4.1 Common Research
Strategies

Sample Surveys
• A subgroup of a large population is
questioned on a set of topics.
• No intervention or manipulation of the
respondents, simply asked to answer
some questions.

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Randomized Experiments

• Measures the effect of manipulating the environment in

some way.

• Randomized experiment = manipulation is assigned to

participants on a random basis.

• Explanatory variable = the feature that would explain the

response (in experiments this is the feature being
manipulated).

• Response variable = outcome of interest.

• Randomization helps to make the groups approximately

equal in all respects except for the explanatory variable.
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 Case Study 1.2 (p. 8 and 9):
Does Aspirin Prevent Heart Attacks?
Physicians’ Health Study (1988)
5-year randomized experiment
22,071 male physicians (40 to 84 years old).
• Group 1: took ordinary aspirin tablet
every other day.
• Group 2: took placebo (looked like aspirin
but no active ingredients).
Explanatory variable: use of aspirin
Response variable: having heart attack or not
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à
à
Examples
1. A trainer wants to investigate how the
amount of exercise done by a person
affects their resting heart rate. The resting
heart rates of people who exercise different
amounts are measured and compared.

Response variable:
Explanatory variable:
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Examples
1. A trainer wants to investigate how the
amount of exercise done by a person
affects their resting heart rate. The resting
heart rates of people who exercise different
amounts are measured and compared.

Response variable: Resting heart rate

Explanatory variable: Amount of exercise
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Examples
2. A teacher wants to know if the temperature
of the classroom affects students' ability to
focus. Different temperatures are set in the
room, and students' focus levels are observed

Response variable:
Explanatory variable:

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Examples
2. A teacher wants to know if the temperature
of the classroom affects students' ability to
focus. Different temperatures are set in the
room, and students' focus levels are observed

Response variable: Student focus

Explanatory variable: Classroom temperature

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Examples
3. A gardener is interested in whether giving
plants more water makes them grow taller.
Plants are watered with different amounts, and
their height is measured.

Response variable:
Explanatory variable:

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Examples
3. A gardener is interested in whether giving
plants more water makes them grow taller.
Plants are watered with different amounts, and
their height is measured.

Response variable: Plant height

Explanatory variable: Amount of water

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 Check in - iClicker time (3 min)

A teacher wants to know if the number of hours

students sleep before a test affects their
performance. Students report how many hours
they slept the night before, and their test scores
are recorded

Explanatory variable:

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 Check in - iClicker time (2 min)

A teacher wants to know if the number of hours

students sleep before a test affects their
performance. Students report how many hours
they slept the night before, and their test scores
are recorded

Response variable:

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Observational Studies

• Resembles an experiment, but manipulation

occurs naturally, not imposed.
• Cannot assume the explanatory variable is the
only one responsible for any observed
differences in the response variable.
• Case-control study attempts to include
an appropriate control group. (Chapter 5)
• Sometimes results more readily extend to
the real world than in an experiment – no
artificial manipulation.
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Meta-Analyses

• Quantitative review of a collection of studies

all done on a similar topic.
• Combining information can lead to emergence
of patterns or effects not
readily seen in the individual studies.
• More on meta-analyses in Chapter 25 (not
covered in this course)
• Key: “researchers reviewed 16 studies"

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Example: Meta-Analyses
Imagine there are multiple studies on whether taking Vitamin C
helps prevent the common cold. Each study has tested a different
group of people and found varying results:

Study 1: 200 people were tested. The group taking Vitamin C showed a
10% reduction in colds compared to the control group.
Study 2: 150 people were tested. This study found no significant
difference in cold rates between those taking Vitamin C and the control
group.
Study 3: 300 people were tested. Those taking Vitamin C had a 15%
reduction in colds compared to the control group.
Study 4: 100 people were tested. The group taking Vitamin C showed a
5% reduction in colds.

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Case Studies

• In-depth examination of one or a small

number of individuals.
• Descriptive and do not require statistical
methods.
• Generally cannot be extended to any
person or situation other than the one
studied.

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Exercises Chapter 4

1. Patients who visit a clinic to help them stop

smoking are given a choice of two treatments:
undergoing hypnosis or applying nicotine patches.
The percentages who quit smoking are compared for
the two methods. Is this study a survey, an
experiment, an observational study, or a case study?
Explain your reasoning.

Observational study, because patients were allowed

to choose their treatment method rather than
having it randomly assigned
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Exercises Chapter 4

2. A large company wants to compare two

incentive plans for increasing sales. The company
randomly assigns a number of its sales staff to
receive each kind of incentive and compares the
average change in sales of the employees under
the two plans. Is this a survey, an experiment, an
observational study, or a case study?

Experiment, because the incentive methods are

randomly assigned.
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Exercises Chapter 4

6. Explain whether a survey or a randomized

experiment would be most appropriate to
find out about each of the following:

a. Who is likely to win the next presidential

election
b. Whether the use of nicotine gum reduces
cigarette smoking

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Exercises Chapter 4
6. Explain whether a survey or a randomized
experiment would be most appropriate to find out
about each of the following:

a. Who is likely to win the next presidential election

b. Whether the use of nicotine gum reduces cigarette
smoking

a. A survey, because we only need to question people

about their preferences and not manipulate their
environment.
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Exercises Chapter 4

6. Explain whether a survey or a randomized experiment

would be most appropriate to find out about each of the
following:

a. Who is likely to win the next presidential election

b. Whether the use of nicotine gum reduces cigarette
smoking

b. A randomized experiment, because we need to

randomly assign some people to use the nicotine gum
and others to a "control group," preferably using a
placebo gum.
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Examples: Is this a survey, an experiment,
an observational study, or a case study?

Researchers ask a large group of rst-year

university students to complete a ques onnaire
about their stress levels, study habits, and the
amount of sleep they get each night. The
researchers then analyze the responses to iden fy
common trends.

Copyright ©2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of

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Thomson Learning, Inc.
fi
ti
ti
Examples: Is this a survey, an experiment,
an observational study, or a case study?

Researchers ask a large group of rst-year

university students to complete a ques onnaire
about their stress levels, study habits, and the
amount of sleep they get each night. The
researchers then analyze the responses to iden fy
common trends.

Survey
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Thomson Learning, Inc.
fi
ti
ti
Examples: Is this a survey, an experiment,
an observational study, or a case study?

A researcher spends several months documen ng

and interviewing a single family a er they move to
a new country to be er understand how they
adapt to cultural changes and the challenges they
face.

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Thomson Learning, Inc.
tt
ft
ti
Examples: Is this a survey, an experiment,
an observational study, or a case study?

A researcher spends several months documen ng

and interviewing a single family a er they move to
a new country to be er understand how they
adapt to cultural changes and the challenges they
face.

Case-study

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Thomson Learning, Inc.
tt
ft
ti