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Theoretical and Applied Climatology
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04051-2
ORIGINAL PAPER
Global risks of Bedellia somnulentella (Lepidoptera: Bedelliidae)

invasion: a modeling exercise using a mechanistic model, CLIMEX
Marinalva Martins dos Santos1 · Ricardo Siqueira da Silva1 · Marcus Alvarenga Soares1 ·
Érika Manuela Gonçalves Lopes2 · Farzin Shabani3,4
Received: 18 June 2021 / Accepted: 5 April 2022

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2022
Abstract
This study aimed to identify the global risk of invasion and establishment of Bedellia somnulentella, a pest of the sweet potato
crop, for the present and future time, to develop policies and prevent future outbreaks. Current climate projections and future
(2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100) of the insect B. somnulentella were carried out using CLIMEX. The projections showed that
climate change could reduce areas of high aptitude for B. somnulentella in the parallel range of latitude 0°, the equator. On
the other hand, temperate regions in the parallels with latitudes above 30°S and 30°N can increase hot and humid stress and
become more suitable for the pest. This survey is based on weather data only. Data on land use and types, biotic interactions,
diseases, natural enemies, alternative hosts, and competition were not considered for this model. Another uncertainty is asso-
ciated with future levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The data presented here are helpful for the development of policies,
studies, and strategies for the management of the B. somnulentella pest in the field. We encourage agricultural organizations
in various countries to make strategic and long-term plans to avoid losses of millions of dollars through B. somnulentella.
1 Introduction and Meehl 2017; Hamann et al. 2021). An increase in the

insect pest population is expected, which can reduce food
A growing challenge for agriculture is understanding, man- crops qualitatively-quantitatively, presenting significant risks
aging, and predicting insect pests’ population dynamics and to future food security (Chakrabortya et al. 2000; García-
their impacts on agricultural production in the context of Lara and Saldivar 2015; Garrett et al. 2006). An alternative
climate change. Climate change has been reported to alter to predict the impacts of insect pests on agriculture is to
temperature, atmospheric C O2 concentration, and precipi- assess their potential distribution using species distribution
tation (Trębicki et al. 2017; Zheng et al. 2018; Hossain models (SDMs) (Jiang et al. 2018; Kumar et al. 2014; Sha-
et al. 2020). Consequently, it significantly affects all liv- bani and Kumar 2013).
ing organisms, including interactions between insects and Bedellia somnulentella (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Bedellii-
plants (Chakrabortya et al. 2000; Stott 2016; Ummenhofer dae) is a pest of the sweet potato crop Ipomoea batatas (L.)
(Solanales: Convolvulaceae). Sweet potato is a vital crop that
contributes to overcoming global food insecurity in the face
* Marinalva Martins dos Santos of climate change variability and human population growth
marinalvabiologa@gmail.com (Echodu et al. 2019). The B. somnulentella is a miner in the
1
Departamento de Agronomia, Universidade Federal Dos larval stage and feeds on the host leaf mesophyll through-
Vales Jequitinhonha E Mucuri, Diamantina, Minas Gerais, out the phenological stages (Fig. 1). In addition to sweet
Brazil potato, it also eats leaves from the weeds Calystegia sepium,
2
Instituto de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal de Convolvulus arvensis, and Ipomoea somnulenta from the
Minas Gerais, Montes Claros, MG, Brazil Convolvulaceae family and from Salix sp. (Salicaceae), Sis-
3
Global Ecology and ARC Centre of Excellence ymbruim irio (Cruciferae), and Solanum melongena (Sola-
for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, College of Science naceae) (Natural History Museum 2021). The food diversity
and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA 5001, of B. somnulentella can increase its global distribution. The
Australia
direct damage of the infestation affects the aerial part of the
4
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, sweet potato biomass and results in a decrease in the growth
Sydney, NSW, Australia
13
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Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Global risks of Bedellia somnulentella (Lepidoptera: Bedelliidae)

Received: 18 June 2021 / Accepted: 5 April 2022

1 Introduction and Meehl 2017; Hamann et al. 2021). An increase in the

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